76023 - The Tumbler

[exciter1]

8 minutes ago, Mos_Eisley said:

The only way anyone is selling a Tumbler next year and turning it into a Hellicarrier and a PC is  if they meet up with Darin's guy in that alley behind K Mart. 

That will be a long line.

[Veegs]

26 minutes ago, labfreak7 said:

My prediction is 300-325 shipped this time next year. Place your bets....

Seems reasonable, although the actual EOL date might change that a lot. If this lingers for as long as EEE did with the 'retiring soon' tag, stock will last until mid-year. 

[HandyHand]

Let's see where the Tumbler retires first: Europe or the US. Gentlemen, place your bets!  

[dcdfan]

Here's a prediction, the Helicarrier will not be available when The Tumbler reaches $500...

[Crustybeaver]

I can't wait to see this on ebay next xmas with 800 sellers fighting over who can sell it for the lowest. If the horde is anything it is completely predictable.

It's the nature of Lego investing now. If it's retiring soon and it looks like a winner people are going to plum for it.

[trekgate502]

4 minutes ago, dcdfan said:

Here's a prediction, the Helicarrier will not be available when The Tumbler reaches $500...

I predict the Helicarrier will disappear some day like a thief in the night

[Ed Mack]

33 minutes ago, Bold-Arrow said:

Agreed . Enter GE 

You know I love and respect you Bold Arrow, but I would like to point one thing...The Grand Emporium was the MOST STOCKPILED set of all time.  The Tumbler doesn't even rank in the Top 50.  People will miss it when it's gone and say..."Boy oh boy, I sure wish I bough a few more Tumblers instead of those (Fill in the Blank)!!!"  This set is history and when it goes, it's gone for good.  This is no Red 5.  

[Deeker]

Does anyone think there is a chance for a new UCS batmobile coming out?

I am hoping they keep up with this and do the original one, the new one from the upcoming movie etc.  I really think if they did something like this it would make the demand that much more down the road.

[CrabslayerT]

8 minutes ago, Deeker said:

Does anyone think there is a chance for a new UCS batmobile coming out?

I am hoping they keep up with this and do the original one, the new one from the upcoming movie etc.  I really think if they did something like this it would make the demand that much more down the road.

A Classic BatMobile would be brilliant! I am all for it! Not so sure about the new one just yet, that really depends on Ben Aflecks performance and how good the next movie will be.

[Bold-Arrow]

13 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

You know I love and respect you Bold Arrow, but I would like to point one thing...The Grand Emporium was the MOST STOCKPILED set of all time.  The Tumbler doesn't even rank in the Top 50.  People will miss it when it's gone and say..."Boy oh boy, I sure wish I bough a few more Tumblers instead of those (Fill in the Blank)!!!"  This set is history and when it goes, it's gone for good.  This is no Red 5.  

That would be true if this set was to disappear yesterday. It is still available and people are buying like cray cray. I'm not saying it won't be big money, I'm saying people expectating a quick rise next year while it is still avaivale today are off the mark IMO .  

[newbie77]

8 minutes ago, Bold-Arrow said:

That would be true if this set was to disappear yesterday. It is still available and people are buying like cray cray. I'm not saying it won't be big money, I'm saying people expectating a quick rise next year while it is still avaivale today are off the mark IMO .  

looks like sales of this has faltered for some reason. not sure why may be JW and star war took the batman out to lunch or what? 

when LEGO Shop at Home puts "retiring soon" that means they have **** load of inventory and can't clear them. Its been "retiring soon" for this long and still available everywhere.

this could mean one or combination of following:

a. big $$$ is still not buying this (why i don't know)

b. horde must be buying but horde alone can't finish the inventory of all the retailers.

c.  so much inventory both (a) and (b) can't finish it off

whichever way it is .. its wise to have few copies, but stay away from stockpiling unless you can pick up the inventory that's falling off the truck. 

[Miami Bomb Squad]

25 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

The Grand Emporium was the MOST STOCKPILED set of all time.  The Tumbler doesn't even rank in the Top 50.  People will miss it when it's gone and say..."Boy oh boy, I sure wish I bough a few more Tumblers instead of those (Fill in the Blank)!!!"  This set is history and when it goes, it's gone for good.  This is no Red 5.  

Its going to be Top 20 after this comment.

[Ed Mack]

10 minutes ago, Bold-Arrow said:

That would be true if this set was to disappear yesterday. It is still available and people are buying like cray cray. I'm not saying it won't be big money, I'm saying people expectating a quick rise next year while it is still avaivale today are off the mark IMO .  

There just aren't enough available to ever get it to GE levels.  LEGO is not going to restart production of this set once it is listed as "Retiring Soon."  The GE sold heavily for 4.5 years and The Tumbler will be sold for a little over one year at restricted levels.  The GE was discounted many times.  The Tumbler was never discounted.  People have blown this set off thinking it would be around for another year or so.  They are still blowing it off.  

7 minutes ago, Miami Bomb Squad said:

Its going to be Top 20 after this comment.

It's so far from the top, it won't really matter.

[newbie77]

12 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

There just aren't enough available to ever get it to GE levels.  LEGO is not going to restart production of this set once it is listed as "Retiring Soon."  The GE sold heavily for 4.5 years and The Tumbler will be sold for a little over one year at restricted levels.  The GE was discounted many times.  The Tumbler was never discounted.  People have blown this set off thinking it would be around for another year or so.  They are still blowing it off.  

It's so far from the top, it won't really matter.

restricted? are you serious? restricted where? are you talking about limit 1.

this is probably most widely available set. was even available @ WBstores and some other online sites that never carried LEGOs or modulars before. in terms of duration yes it may have been short [ just 1 year vs. the 2-3/4 years other got ] but its truly possible TLG is trying something new with this set which is 

a. produce **** load 

b. flood the market everywhere possible in/from every direction 

c. even the retiring soon sign is not able to "extinct" this makes me seriously wonder about the number of this produced.

 

Edited December 17, 2015 by newbie77

[Miami Bomb Squad]

8 minutes ago, newbie77 said:

restricted? are you serious? restricted where? are you talking about limit 1.

this is probably most widely available set. was even available @ WBstores and some other online sites that never carried LEGOs or modulars before.

Didn't you know Ed moonlights for Lego as the VP of Sales.

[gbg108]

7 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

There just aren't enough available to ever get it to GE levels.  LEGO is not going to restart production of this set once it is listed as "Retiring Soon."  The GE sold heavily for 4.5 years and The Tumbler will be sold for a little over one year at restricted levels.  The GE was discounted many times.  The Tumbler was never discounted.  People have blown this set off thinking it would be around for another year or so.  They are still blowing it off.  

And I think that's the bigger picture people complaining about the horde are missing. By the time "retiring soon" label was put on this set production was most likely already complete. Meaning the supply is already fixed. If that's the case it doesn't make as much difference if the sets are bought by resellers or end-customers. If a reseller buys 100 today then that's 100 more potential future customer. If 100 end-customer buy them today then that's 100 less in the hand of resellers. Either way, the number of sets in existence probably isn't likely to change anymore.

[Ed Mack]

5 minutes ago, newbie77 said:

restricted? are you serious? restricted where? are you talking about limit 1.

this is probably most widely available set. was even available @ WBstores and some other online sites that never carried LEGOs or modulars before.

Yes, limit of one on LEGO S@H.  Not 5 or 99.  It was hard to come by for months and 3-4 months out of 12 is somewhat restricting, wouldn't you agree?  You could have bought many from other sites eventually, sure, but it wasn't never as easy as the GE.

[Ed Mack]

Maybe the simplest answer is best...The Tumbler was a poor seller.  No more Tumbler.  

[Darth_Raichu]

12 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Maybe the simplest answer is best...The Tumbler was a poor seller.  No more Tumbler.  

Or maybe they are planning to re-release 76023 with Affleck minifig in 2016 

 

 

[citymorgue]

I don't understand people arguing with Ed on this subject.  He knows the true numbers of stuff that has been inputted into people's brickfolio's.  Sure it's not a true representation because not everyone keeps it up to date, but I agree with him on this one.  For a while, when the Tumbler first came out, you couldn't even get it online for the first couple of months because the shortage was such that Lego could only produce enough to send to the physical stores.

And you have to think that as critically acclaimed as this series was, this will be a winner down the road.  Not only is it a truly fantastic model which really captures the ridiculously insane angles of the real thing, it also has the exclusive Heath Ledger Joker.  Period end of story, even I think those people who are poo-pooing this set are going to be in for a rude awakening when this finally disappears for good.

By sheer numbers alone, this one is guaranteed to have such a number significantly less than GE.  It doesn't matter how you cut it, but 4 years of production is going to produce far greater numbers than a year and half of production, especially with as limited as the Tumbler has been.

This is one of those sets I'm really lucky to have been able to get before life got in the way and kept me from purchasing sets at all this year.  It's especially sweeter with my Bat pod next to it!!!

[Battrax]

27 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

Maybe the simplest answer is best...The Tumbler was a poor seller.  No more Tumbler.  

Occam's Razor et cetera...

The comparison with the Maersk EEE is interesting but in my opinion they are quire different sets with quite different potential audiences. The EEE had no big mainstream franchise behind it, was limited to official Lego channels and was always limited in the number that could be procured. And it is an impressive display piece. The fact that many here seemed to dislike it for some reason probably helped a little bit, as well.

The Tumbler seems to be the opposite in almost all of those aspects.

 

Edit: hmm/// not contradicting Ed nor those arguing the other side... but I think the reality is a combination of factors. Like has been said, if I were running Lego's product lines, why would I devote manufacturing capacity to a somewhat niche large set when gearing up for a projected multi-year gargantuan franchise and probably staggering number of sets related to it? Putting down a high cost and msrp set like this one is probably the right thing to do.

Edited December 17, 2015 by Battrax
Clarification

[Bold-Arrow]

I didn't realize we lived in N. Korea . My bad . 

[fossilrock]

44 minutes ago, newbie77 said:

looks like sales of this has faltered for some reason. not sure why may be JW and star war took the batman out to lunch or what? 

when LEGO Shop at Home puts "retiring soon" that means they have **** load of inventory and can't clear them. Its been "retiring soon" for this long and still available everywhere.

this could mean one or combination of following:

a. big $$$ is still not buying this (why i don't know)

b. horde must be buying but horde alone can't finish the inventory of all the retailers.

c.  so much inventory both (a) and (b) can't finish it off

whichever way it is .. its wise to have few copies, but stay away from stockpiling unless you can pick up the inventory that's falling off the truck. 

I don't know if it means loads of inventory.  There were a few star wars sets that recently got that tag, and they were sold out with 2 weeks.

[Deeker]

Also when this set first came out it was basically out of stock day one.  I think it was still very difficult to obtain going into christmas last year.  If I remember correctly it was only available at the actual stores.  No where online at all.

I personally think this set is going bye bye due to cost to make vs sales of other sets.  I am sure lego can create many other sets in their factories that will sell much faster then these that will sit around longer and take up space.  

This set to me is one of those that you just look at and are amazed what someone can do with little plastic bricks.  It is truly a show piece.  Don't fool yourself that down the road a father or mother will get hooked when building some sets their children get as a gift and then stumble upon a site like this or another and start to see all the cool items they missed out on.  

When my boys started building 5 years ago i to got the bug.  I never imagined I would shell out 50-100 bucks for a lego toy.  Now I am buying old stuff for self both new and opened for 500-800 bucks.  I don't even bat an eye.  

This set will be one of those down the road.  Our country has so much money and so many people that piss money away.  Some 25 year old hedge fund kid making millions on wall street will see the Star Wars movie this weekend and on Monday be looking for the MF.  He or she won't give a care to the cost, because it is just money. 

I don'y think this will be the next MF, but I do believe a few years from now you will certainly double your money.  And I don't know what other type of investment vehicle can give you returns like that.  

[stephen_rockefeller]

45 minutes ago, Miami Bomb Squad said:

Its going to be Top 20 after this comment.

It's gonna be top 5 before it retires.........at least.