76023 - The Tumbler

[jaisonline]

 exactly my point above.  we don't know lego's sale expectations of this set's (or any other set in their offerings) to know if a set is selling well or not

This chart by itself tells us very little.  Now if you take the data from ALL the sets and compare them, then you have something.  Maybe some accounting or numbers guru out there with nothing to do can make this happen.  

[GiliusThunderhead]

 exactly my point above.  we don't know lego's sale expectations of this set's (or any other set in their offerings) to know if a set is selling well or not

 

Given its "limit 1" and has been for a while in the EU I cant believe this one is a bad seller.  Surely if Lego were looking to offload then they'd put it up to 5 like the other exclusives and let people buy to their hearts content.

Assuming this info is good then I'd say the most likely scenario is that it will be an online item only (rather then go EOL so soon).  Get a new batmobile in the shops but have the old one still turning out production - have the physical store space for the new one.

Incidentally if something is limit 1 @ LEGO Shop at Home what exactly does that mean?  Is there anything stopping me from placing multiple 1 unit orders or is there some kind of time restrictions on how many orders i could place?

I see nothing but upwards on any UCS batmobile sets.

Not doubting you on this one (tumbler) but looking at the appreciation of 7784 it doesn't look that great when you compare it to the other batman sets of 2006.  I mean, I love the set and stoked to get one at such a reasonable price in the aftermarket but as an investment it looks like its done comparatively poorly.

[Ed Mack]

 exactly my point above.  we don't know lego's sale expectations of this set's (or any other set in their offerings) to know if a set is selling well or not

 

To take it worth one step further like redghostx stated above, even if a set sells better than others, if it is too costly to produce, that could play into it big time.  Personally, I would not be surprised if the Tumbler retires around the new year.  You can count on a new Batmobile to go along with the new movie.  Whether it's a UCS set or not is the big question.  I have always thought this set was an expensive one to make because of the tires, so I wonder if that will have an effect of a two year run.  We will see...

[Ciglione]

To take it worth one step further like redghostx stated above, even if a set sells better than others, if it is too costly to produce, that could play into it big time.  Personally, I would not be surprised if the Tumbler retires around the new year.  You can count on a new Batmobile to go along with the new movie.  Whether it's a UCS set or not is the big question.  I have always thought this set was an expensive one to make because of the tires, so I wonder if that will have an effect of a two year run.  We will see...

That could be a reason for making it exclusive to lego SaH at the end of the year. If they keep it limit 1 they can plan and control more or less the production. So they can keep it around but it will not put too much weight on the overall production schedule.

[Val-E]

So resellers are now going to start a run on this set and production will be assured for ages à la 10240. Sweet......

[Ed Mack]

So resellers are now going to start a run on this set and production will be assured for ages à la 10240. Sweet......

It happens...

[Cashmoney-0]

I don' think this set is going anywhere. I don't think Lego would spend so much time and money to create a huge exclusive set to only last 18 months, and I doubt that they miscalculated their production costs. 

[newbie77]

I don' think this set is going anywhere. I don't think Lego would spend so much time and money to create a huge exclusive set to only last 18 months, and I doubt that they miscalculated their production costs. 

used to be 18-24 months lifetime. just because of longevity of few sets does not mean TLG will keep each and every set forever (in lego world more than 24 months is forever).

they cannot make money by sticking to same sets for long period of time. they are in SQFLL. flip and produce more and newer sets.

[Frank Brickowski]

Interesting how people keep talking about a possibly upcoming "online only" distribution of a certain set from time to time. IF this has ever happened before - which I cannot recall - then it was for a very short time. That's why I don't believe in the option of an "online exclusive" for months or even longer.

Edited August 8, 2015 by rfish

[Ed Mack]

I don' think this set is going anywhere. I don't think Lego would spend so much time and money to create a huge exclusive set to only last 18 months, and I doubt that they miscalculated their production costs. 

I don't think people are saying it will retire in 18 months, but 24 months is certainly possible and happens quite often in the LEGO world.  Maybe LEGO had no idea a new Batman movie was being released when they were designing the Tumbler years ago.  

Edited August 8, 2015 by Ed Mack

[Ciglione]

If it does or does not retire at the end of this year... I will be ready with enough ammo.

 

Is the limit 1 a fixed limit or can you get away with two as well?

Edited August 8, 2015 by Ciglione

[exciter1]

Whew! Something else to distract folks while the Slave 1 is still ripe for the pickin'.

[Wildemar]

This chart by itself tells us very little.  Now if you take the data from ALL the sets and compare them, then you have something.  Maybe some accounting or numbers guru out there with nothing to do can make this happen.  

 

Yes, we don't know about sale expectations, production costs and profitability. But that wasn't my point.
My only point was and is that in comparison to other 100+ $/€ sets sales figures of the Tumbler are quite good. I'm no accounting guru but I ran a quick analysis based on Brickset's EU stock records - the following are rounded weekly sales:

10218 Pet Shop: ca. 200

10232 Palace Cinema: ca. 120

10243 Parisian Restaurant: ca. 100

10246 Detective's Office: ca. 180

75059 Sandcrawler: ca. 40

75060 Slave I: ca. 110

10236 Ewok Village: ca. 30

10240 Red Five X-wing Starfighter: ca. 130

71006 Simpsons House: ca. 80
=================
76023 The Tumbler: ca. 180

The Tumbler is on par with the most successful modulars, it sells a lot better than Slave I, more than twice as the SH and six(!) times the EV. Therefore I assume that there's a high probability (but we can't know for sure) at least sale expectations in EU are met. Or would one realistically expect the Tumbler to do even better than that?

Edited August 8, 2015 by Wildemar

[GhostDad]

If I were heavily invested in the Tumbler, I would be worried about this:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Batman-The-Tumbler-Batmobile-Dark-Knight-Minifigures-Series-Building-Blocks-A-/131528258796?hash=item1e9fb1f4ec

Edited August 14, 2015 by GhostDad

[I am Niko]

If I were heavily invested in the Tumbler, I would be worried about this:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Batman-The-Tumbler-Batmobile-Dark-Knight-Minifigures-Series-Building-Blocks-A-/131528258796?hash=item1e9fb1f4ec

Why? The type of person who would buy a small, $20 knockoff toy isn't the same type of person who would spend hundreds for the real deal.

[GiliusThunderhead]

If I were heavily invested in the Tumbler, I would be worried about this:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Batman-The-Tumbler-Batmobile-Dark-Knight-Minifigures-Series-Building-Blocks-A-/131528258796?hash=item1e9fb1f4ec

I honestly wouldn't be too much.circa 300 pieces so not a direct threat.  Yeah, other companies have cottoned on to Legos success so there's going to be a lot of emulation (greatest form of flattery).   Never seen this brand before so cant comment on the quality.

If it is good though then I might start to worry if they upped there scale.

[stephen_rockefeller]

Why? The type of person who would buy a small, $20 knockoff toy isn't the same type of person who would spend hundreds for the real deal.

Thank you!!!!!

[Darth_Raichu]

If I were heavily invested in the Tumbler, I would be worried about this:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Batman-The-Tumbler-Batmobile-Dark-Knight-Minifigures-Series-Building-Blocks-A-/131528258796?hash=item1e9fb1f4ec

Darn it, just when I start selling the tumbler polys for $10 each

[GiliusThunderhead]

Thank you!!!!!

No jokes but i saw someone trying to palm one of these off on ebay as the actual UCS tumbler.  They had a pic of the tumbler box but then all the shots of the model (and figs) looked very much like these ones.

OK, they never actually stated the actual item (i mailed them and they said they had it up for a friend and would get back to me - never did) but they said it was Lego (obvious lie now) and it was priced as though it was the real thing and the shot of the tumbler box was a bit untoward i think.

Maybe preaching to the choir but with all these knock-offs just make doubly sure what you're buying is what you think you're buying.

[biking_tiger]

Who gave the Joker that hammer? That's all I want to know. Can't they see he freed himself from those super-useful handcuffs?

Amateurs. 

[GhostDad]

Why? The type of person who would buy a small, $20 knockoff toy isn't the same type of person who would spend hundreds for the real deal.

By this logic, Gucci, etc. really need to quit worrying about all those fake handbags.  Companies do (or should, in the case of Lego) care because fakes 1) erode the prestige of the brand, and 2) definitely do take sales away from the real thing.  Anyway, why would anyone assume that a $100 with free shipping from China, exact copy of Lego's UCS Tumbler isn't right around the corner?  They've already copied every Friends set, including several with 1000+ pieces.

[asharerin]

By this logic, Gucci, etc. really need to quit worrying about all those fake handbags.  Companies do (or should, in the case of Lego) care because fakes 1) erode the prestige of the brand, and 2) definitely do take sales away from the real thing.  Anyway, why would anyone assume that a $100 with free shipping from China, exact copy of Lego's UCS Tumbler isn't right around the corner?  They've already copied every Friends set, including several with 1000+ pieces.

I am only worried about the remakes, not the fakes. Can't see TLG rehashing a UCS Tumbler for a very long time.

[I am Niko]

By this logic, Gucci, etc. really need to quit worrying about all those fake handbags.  Companies do (or should, in the case of Lego) care because fakes 1) erode the prestige of the brand, and 2) definitely do take sales away from the real thing.  Anyway, why would anyone assume that a $100 with free shipping from China, exact copy of Lego's UCS Tumbler isn't right around the corner?  They've already copied every Friends set, including several with 1000+ pieces.

If you want to talk logic, Gucci fakes look like Gucci and are labelled as Gucci.  This is clearly labelled as Decool, plus it's much smaller and different-looking than the real UCS.  Don't get me wrong, I hate fakes and think some of them do erode value away, but this particular one won't affect the real deal.

Edited August 14, 2015 by I am Niko

[mudcatsfan]

I honestly wouldn't be too much.circa 300 pieces so not a direct threat.  Yeah, other companies have cottoned on to Legos success so there's going to be a lot of emulation (greatest form of flattery).   Never seen this brand before so cant comment on the quality.

If it is good though then I might start to worry if they upped there scale.

I'm taking the warning more as a question, if they can do this, why can't they continue to escalating to a UCS size set?

Answer........there's no reason they cannot.

[Locutus001]

haha... I'm following this small discussion and I really don't see your point ;-)

This knockoff Tumbler has what exactly going for it? The price is cheap, the set is minor (AND small...) and lacks the details and magic of the big tumbler.

It looks like something for people who are to lazy (or unwilling) to build their LEGO MOC Tumbler.

I don't mind this set at all... people who buy the UCS X-Wing instead of the small X-Wing do this because most UCS Sets are awesome! ;-) (And their counterparts are just okay).