76023 - The Tumbler

[biking_tiger]

All this talk of the Tumbler retiring at the end of 2014... does it make sense? No.

 

Think of the $ LEGO spent in development and production, only to limit profits to a tiny selling window marred with slower-than-demand production.

 

And doesn't LEGO dislike the price-gouging perception caused by the secondary market? (but maybe appreciates the value-perception added by same, at least behind closed doors)

 

This is going to be around for awhile. And I don't even have one to eat...

[MikeF]

Completed Tumbler and No I am not going to eat it - lol

 

[Locutus001]

Always amusing to see how people talk about retirement of sets that just came out.

 

Now is the time to load up on these and in about 2 years it's time to hold on to what you bought.

 

As far as I'm concerned you can of course buy and sell whenever you want ^.^

[emazers]

For you Investors starting next year I would buy a Tumbler when ever you can, I have 5 now and will be buying one or two at least every month or so, this way when the Retiring panic buying starts I should have 20-30 now most will wait and wait and again miss the boat.

[Val-E]

Sound advice, VIP double points are your best friend with this one and it should stick around for a while yet so I guess that swapping one for a TH now makes sense. You definitey want both

[Dundeemac]

Just bought my first (hopefully of many) Tumbler from the Lego Shop at home for the Australian price $279. I don't think Australians will see this set at a better price.

[jaisonline]

I'll Buy From Target and Amazon. Using Amazon Reward points and the Red Card helps create an artificial discount.

I would guess a 2-2.5 year retail life. This is one of the "obvious" sets to invest it and might actually lay low for most of 2016 with all the Star Wars attention. So we have plenty of time to buy especially in early 2016 without sacrificing storage space if purchased soon. Don't wait too long in 2016 though

[bricketycricket]

OK, If the Tumbler retires on or before sept 2015 then I will eat a tumbler.

Why not!

 

Fondant is disgusting, I'd rather eat the plastic one.

[oneknightr]

Just sold my two sets for $240 each locally through craigslist. No bites at $300 or $270, so I decided $240 and both moved right away. Made $22, double VIP points ($20), and the free holiday set for each. Not great but better than hanging onto them when these become widely available next year.

[jaisonline]

My 2 cents...

I see many posts about buying this set (and others) now during a very short window of opportunity.

From my investor's perceptive, it's a great set and I'lol eventually own my fair share.

Just be aware this set will be available throughout 2015 at many (if not all) online retail web sites. Thus, this set isn't a "must buy" now unless it's for building, a gift, etc... If you are currently flipping now on eBay, Amazon, etc... please be aware of web site buyer holiday return policies and think about having a 10-20% restocking fee listed on your eBay auctions. I just be proactive and protect yourself against some crooked buyers who might return new sets to you next month (or Feb) when these are more available.

For myself, I have storage space already allocated just in-case some of my eBay buyers try to return this set for refunds As you are aware, it's a larger box. Plus there are accounting workarounds to use for 2014 sale refunds that are reversed for your income tax reporting.

Happy holidays and selling.

[oneknightr]

LEGO Shop at Home is allowing people to add one to their cart but no estimated ship date. Starting to look like these will be widely available soon as expected for such a new set.

 

http://shop.lego.com/en-US/The-Tumbler-76023?fromListing=listing&ShipTo=US&_requestid=2584479

[Locutis]

I'm all about ordering just before EOL, but I don't want to be caught, either.  Look at the Research Institute set.  TLG said they would make more of the RI, and oh yes they did, but I was only able to recently order one, and the next day it went to officially sold out.

 

While there is a possibility that this Tumbler set will be available all through 2015, there's also the possibility that its availability will be very limited to most people (not everyone has a Lego store they can drive to), similar to the RI and the Exo-Suit.  I rely on Toys R Us (shipping and local store) and LEGO Shop at Home for all of my Lego.  If too many people continue to order this set, it will still be hard to get all the way through to its EOL.

 

The real problem is, like with 41999 Technic Crawler, how many of the sales Lego has for this set are to end-user collectors/builders, and how many are strictly flippers/investors?  If this set is selling like hotcakes at LEGO Shop at Home and 90% of those sales are to flippers and investors, what happens when EOL comes and now there are hundreds or thousands on the market?

 

I can say from first-hand experience I've watched a collector's market go from what LEGO is currently at, to implosion, within 18 months.  I'm not talking about some dinky figurine market, I'm talking about a multi-billion dollar market.  18 months ago most of our customers (90%+) were collectors, but overnight we experienced a surge of flippers.  This irritated a lot of collectors, as they were not able to get the item they wanted before its price going up in the aftermarket, and it selling out.  Flippers would even buy from other flippers in an attempt to corner the market.

 

It all came to a halt this spring when the manufacturer started increasing the number of each item made, due to the "increased demand", which was actually artificial.  Flippers are not end users (consumers), and therefore, do not add to the number of total consumers.  An item that normally would have 5,000 made, but now has 10,000 or 15,000 made because 100 flippers who bought 50 each in an attempt to corner the market will never be able to sell those 5,000 pieces as the end users don't exist in those numbers.  Not now, not ever.

 

I see a lot of parallels between what I've seen in the market and what's happening with LEGO and what has happened in the market where I work.  I wrote a bit of the same sort of commentary a year ago with regards to the 41999 Technic Crawler, and I still see it more and more each day I look.  Based on the current sales and the supply of this set on BrickLink, 41999 will never be above $400 and is actually trending downwards at the moment.  Look at BrickLink sales over the past 6 months.  A total of 57 have sold in 6 months, and currently there are 252 for sale.  Even at the steady rate of sale, that's over 2 years of supply that remains.

 

I'm not saying Lego investing is a bad idea, but you do have to pick your battles, especially now.  You have to be really smart about it.  Sets like the Town Hall going EOL caught people off guard.  There will be others.  The sets that catch people off guard (the sleepers) will be worth the most when there are few investors/flippers who bought them up.  But only if there are end-user customers for them.

 

Locutis

[mscheaf]

I'm all about ordering just before EOL, but I don't want to be caught, either.  Look at the Research Institute set.  TLG said they would make more of the RI, and oh yes they did, but I was only able to recently order one, and the next day it went to officially sold out.

 

While there is a possibility that this Tumbler set will be available all through 2015, there's also the possibility that its availability will be very limited to most people (not everyone has a Lego store they can drive to), similar to the RI and the Exo-Suit.  I rely on Toys R Us (shipping and local store) and LEGO Shop at Home for all of my Lego.  If too many people continue to order this set, it will still be hard to get all the way through to its EOL.

 

The real problem is, like with 41999 Technic Crawler, how many of the sales Lego has for this set are to end-user collectors/builders, and how many are strictly flippers/investors?  If this set is selling like hotcakes at LEGO Shop at Home and 90% of those sales are to flippers and investors, what happens when EOL comes and now there are hundreds or thousands on the market?

 

I can say from first-hand experience I've watched a collector's market go from what LEGO is currently at, to implosion, within 18 months.  I'm not talking about some dinky figurine market, I'm talking about a multi-billion dollar market.  18 months ago most of our customers (90%+) were collectors, but overnight we experienced a surge of flippers.  This irritated a lot of collectors, as they were not able to get the item they wanted before its price going up in the aftermarket, and it selling out.  Flippers would even buy from other flippers in an attempt to corner the market.

 

It all came to a halt this spring when the manufacturer started increasing the number of each item made, due to the "increased demand", which was actually artificial.  Flippers are not end users (consumers), and therefore, do not add to the number of total consumers.  An item that normally would have 5,000 made, but now has 10,000 or 15,000 made because 100 flippers who bought 50 each in an attempt to corner the market will never be able to sell those 5,000 pieces as the end users don't exist in those numbers.  Not now, not ever.

 

I see a lot of parallels between what I've seen in the market and what's happening with LEGO and what has happened in the market where I work.  I wrote a bit of the same sort of commentary a year ago with regards to the 41999 Technic Crawler, and I still see it more and more each day I look.  Based on the current sales and the supply of this set on BrickLink, 41999 will never be above $400 and is actually trending downwards at the moment.  Look at BrickLink sales over the past 6 months.  A total of 57 have sold in 6 months, and currently there are 252 for sale.  Even at the steady rate of sale, that's over 2 years of supply that remains.

 

I'm not saying Lego investing is a bad idea, but you do have to pick your battles, especially now.  You have to be really smart about it.  Sets like the Town Hall going EOL caught people off guard.  There will be others.  The sets that catch people off guard (the sleepers) will be worth the most when there are few investors/flippers who bought them up.  But only if there are end-user customers for them.

 

Locutis

 

Comparing Tumbler to RI is like comparing apples to a '79 Yugo

[Locutis]

Comparing Tumbler to RI is like comparing apples to a '79 Yugo

While I agree with you that way, I'm simply referring to the manufacturing and availability and marketing of the set in general.

 

Locutis

[Brickbuilder.g]

Maybe I'm crazy but why would TLG make this for just a few months and retire it??? Especially if we're going off the new - it sells well let's keep it motto - I can't see how there is anyway in the world this is not available for at least another full year or longer.

[tmock12]

I think Locutis may have a point when it comes to sets like RI. But we can't forget the power that is Batman. My prediction is this set will be a winner.

 

When the other software developers at my work saw this (non lego builders), they all immediately asked where they could get one. They didn't care about price. 

[MartinP]

Maybe I'm crazy but why would TLG make this for just a few months and retire it???

Lego wouldn't in the first place. It would be a waste of money for Lego to retire an amazing set so early when they could make a lot more money when it is available for at least two years.

[mscheaf]

Maybe I'm crazy but why would TLG make this for just a few months and retire it??? Especially if we're going off the new - it sells well let's keep it motto - I can't see how there is anyway in the world this is not available for at least another full year or longer.

 

They wouldn't. You aren't crazy. Quite the opposite.

[mscheaf]

While I agree with you that way, I'm simply referring to the manufacturing and availability and marketing of the set in general.

 

Locutis

 

So was I. The manufacturing and availability and marketing of a one-off Ideas set and a giant flagship licensed batman set are light years apart.

[Bold-Arrow]

Maybe I'm crazy but why would TLG make this for just a few months and retire it??? Especially if we're going off the new - it sells well let's keep it motto - I can't see how there is anyway in the world this is not available for at least another full year or longer.

agreed, but if one is looking to buy a seizable amount better to start early .

[mscheaf]

agreed, but if one is looking to buy a seizable amount better to start early .

 

Agreed, just as soon as I get my targets on the 48 retiring exclusives, lol

[Legodog]

agreed, but if one is looking to buy a seizable amount better to start early .

 

This. If you want a stockpile of these you start now. It gets really difficult to get anything in large volume once panic buying starts setting in. When the panic starts I would rather be buying last minute Tumblers to add to my large collection I have by then rather than starting from 0. 

[johnwray]

Comparing Tumbler to RI is like comparing apples to a '79 Yugo

Where can I find the '79 Yugo? Is that an exclusive? I don't see it on LEGO Shop at Home anywhere...

[rcdb1984]

[pickleboy]

This was in stock at Lego last night