76023 - The Tumbler

[HandyHand]

Still had 2 of them. Sold one quickly for 390 Euro. I'll hold on to the other one now that I saw this pic in the D2C Exclusives List topic:

If the new Tumbler is that one, the all black Tumbler will keep its value most likely.  

[KShine]

6 minutes ago, HandyHand said:

Still had 2 of them. Sold one quickly for 390 Euro. I'll hold on to the other one now that I saw this pic in the D2C Exclusives List topic:

If the new Tumbler is that one, the all black Tumbler will keep its value most likely.  

Keep its value? Its value would go up.

[joneyyy1981]

so the original tumbler retired 2015/16, why are people worried about a new release, more to the point what the hell are you doing with multiple or these in storage 5 years later?

Edited May 12, 2021 by joneyyy1981

[Bricklectic]

1 minute ago, joneyyy1981 said:

so the original tumbler retired 2015/16, why are people worried about a new release, more to the point what the hell are you doing with multiple or these in storage 5 years later?

I sold last of mine off last year but these were real slow to appreciate so thats probly why ppl still have left

[Miami Bomb Squad]

I'm hoping its a $99 version. That would be perfect vs. another Remake.  

[Bold-Arrow]

1 hour ago, joneyyy1981 said:

so the original tumbler retired 2015/16, why are people worried about a new release, more to the point what the hell are you doing with multiple or these in storage 5 years later?

They are called hoarders. Meet the VP 👋

[thedingman5]

I think that camo one is legit and, frankly, will drive the black one's value up significantly.  Many folks are going to want both!

[Chormeister]

So... this is one of the ones that got away for me. I had just started collecting when it retired. I actually had this and the Sea Cow in my Amazon basket when they sold out and the price shot up. (This was before I knew that kind of thing happens.) So, I passed on both and was super disappointed. There are three sets that I still keep an eye on from this general era: Tumbler, Sea Cow, and the Tower of Orthanc. Still don’t have any of them. I was super excited when it looked like the Tumbler might get a refresh (sorry for those of you with the first one), but now I’m not so sure. The camo version looks interesting, but I’d rather have the original black one. So, the pickle I find myself in is do I try and scoop up an original 76023 and hope that the camo one is coming (and might cause the original to skyrocket again, preventing me from getting one), or wait to see what actually gets released (if anything)? Anybody have insight on this?

(Side note: If you happen to be trying to unload 70810, 10237, or 76023 for a decent price, let me know. I might be interested. Prefer NISB or sealed bags with manual and figs. Box is not important but would be nice. Would entertain the idea of very good used conditon with figs and manual, but we may be moving withing the next year or two and I’d rather not have to assemble/disassemble/pack any more than I have to.)

[KShine]

47 minutes ago, Chormeister said:

So... this is one of the ones that got away for me. I had just started collecting when it retired. I actually had this and the Sea Cow in my Amazon basket when they sold out and the price shot up. (This was before I knew that kind of thing happens.) So, I passed on both and was super disappointed. There are three sets that I still keep an eye on from this general era: Tumbler, Sea Cow, and the Tower of Orthanc. Still don’t have any of them. I was super excited when it looked like the Tumbler might get a refresh (sorry for those of you with the first one), but now I’m not so sure. The camo version looks interesting, but I’d rather have the original black one. So, the pickle I find myself in is do I try and scoop up an original 76023 and hope that the camo one is coming (and might cause the original to skyrocket again, preventing me from getting one), or wait to see what actually gets released (if anything)? Anybody have insight on this?

(Side note: If you happen to be trying to unload 70810, 10237, or 76023 for a decent price, let me know. I might be interested. Prefer NISB or sealed bags with manual and figs. Box is not important but would be nice. Would entertain the idea of very good used conditon with figs and manual, but we may be moving withing the next year or two and I’d rather not have to assemble/disassemble/pack any more than I have to.)

I would keep an eye out for one being sold at a great price (by someone who is afraid of a potential remake).

I doubt that it would be an exact remake (certainly not the same minifigs), and hopefully, it will be the camo.

How good a deal are you looking for? I have them in varying conditions (mint, distress box, open box, no box, partially sealed sets, no minifigs, used).

[KShine]

3 hours ago, joneyyy1981 said:

 what the hell are you doing with multiple or these in storage 5 years later?

Because people will pay more for a set when no one else has any left to sell.

I hate to sell all of my inventory - it's usually a sign that I sold too low.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

I'm still holding out for the regular black Tumbler; but "perfected" to now have the Batpod integration

[joneyyy1981]

2 hours ago, KShine said:

Because people will pay more for a set when no one else has any left to sell.

I hate to sell all of my inventory - it's usually a sign that I sold too low.

a 6 year hold for x2 lol madness.

[gmpirate]

I have a lot still, but I bought a lot to begin with.  They have been slow sellers and slow to appreciate until Covid.  My first reaction was to dump them now but if the new ones are the Bane version it may make sense to hold for a bit.  Either way I'm not worried.  The Death Star still rose enough to recover at a decent price.

[redcell]

5 hours ago, KShine said:

Because people will pay more for a set when no one else has any left to sell.

I hate to sell all of my inventory - it's usually a sign that I sold too low.

You're leaving a ton of money on the table by holding for as long as you are.  I went back and looked, and I had 8 Tumblers.  If I sold those today, I'd gross about $4160 and net somewhere around $1760 after subtracting my cost of goods and selling fees.  In reality, I sold those in 2016 for a net profit of $484.  So I would have made around 4x as much if I'd held onto those Tumblers for an extra five years.  However, over those intervening years, I was able to grow that $484 to $3448 by reinvesting those profits based on the margins I hit each year.  Next year, that number will likely grow to somewhere north of $5000 and the following year somewhere north of $7500 and so on.  

There's nothing wrong with holding sets if that's your thing, but if you're trying to maximize profits, holding sets over the long term is one of the worst things that you can do. 

[$20 on joe vs dan]

1 hour ago, redcell said:

You're leaving a ton of money on the table by holding for as long as you are.  I went back and looked, and I had 8 Tumblers.  If I sold those today, I'd gross about $4160 and net somewhere around $1760 after subtracting my cost of goods and selling fees.  In reality, I sold those in 2016 for a net profit of $484.  So I would have made around 4x as much if I'd held onto those Tumblers for an extra five years.  However, over those intervening years, I was able to grow that $484 to $3448 by reinvesting those profits based on the margins I hit each year.  Next year, that number will likely grow to somewhere north of $5000 and the following year somewhere north of $7500 and so on.  

There's nothing wrong with holding sets if that's your thing, but if you're trying to maximize profits, holding sets over the long term is one of the worst things that you can do. 

opportunity costs

always forgotten by the novice...the first consideration for a business man

[KShine]

34 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

opportunity costs

always forgotten by the novice...the first consideration for a business man

This "novice" has been making a full time living selling LEGO for a very long time - I guess I've just been lucky.

Seriously though, my point was that different things work better for different people. Redcell seems to do really great, but seems to work a lot harder at it (which is great for him, but seems much more time consuming than I would ever like). I do great, but it would likely not be as financially rewarding to him.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

46 minutes ago, KShine said:

This "novice" has been making a full time living selling LEGO for a very long time - I guess I've just been lucky.

Seriously though, my point was that different things work better for different people. Redcell seems to do really great, but seems to work a lot harder at it (which is great for him, but seems much more time consuming than I would ever like). I do great, but it would likely not be as financially rewarding to him.

so do you generally consider opportunity costs when deciding buy/sell?

for sure everyone here has their own brand of reselling/investing/collecting and I am far from being able to criticize...but I think Redcell's point is that IF the goal is profit and business risk mitigation (ie "businessman")..folks that don't consider opportunity costs are not maximizing either. 

[KShine]

23 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

so do you generally consider opportunity costs when deciding buy/sell?

for sure everyone here has their own brand of reselling/investing/collecting and I am far from being able to criticize...but I think Redcell's point is that IF the goal is profit and business risk mitigation (ie "businessman")..folks that don't consider opportunity costs are not maximizing either. 

Financially perhaps (I could strive to make more money), but there are opportunity costs to consider regarding your life and soul.

Edited May 13, 2021 by KShine

[raindroplet]

3 hours ago, KShine said:

This "novice" has been making a full time living selling LEGO for a very long time - I guess I've just been lucky.

Seriously though, my point was that different things work better for different people. Redcell seems to do really great, but seems to work a lot harder at it (which is great for him, but seems much more time consuming than I would ever like). I do great, but it would likely not be as financially rewarding to him.

Yeah, I agree with KShine here. I'm a small fry who picks his sets like stocks to fund his own collection. It's much safer and easier for me to hunt for some select sets to sit on for a few years. I'm also risk-averse and would rather take a long-term chunk of change than reinvest that money into smaller purchases that may not pan out.

If I were actively driving to stores, flipping, had a dedicated Amazon account, etc then I would factor in opportunity cost, but I'm not missing out on something that I had no intention of doing anyways

I think both of you are right but your strategy depends on the scale of your business and the time you can dedicate to it. 

Edited May 13, 2021 by raindroplet

[MrToes16]

I only bought one tumbler for resale when I was first getting into lego investing. I held onto that thing and thought to myself “another year and still not worth my time to sell”. Got to the point where the box just seemed to take up more space than it did the previous year.

I sold, made minimal profit, I moved on.