76023 - The Tumbler

[ChristopherJB]

4 hours ago, wotguvnotmeguv said:

I think next time eBay have a selling promotion, I’m folding on these. Long, long-term I can see these fetching big money, but a handful of Caterhams at the Lego sale price - just days after official retirement, and still on sale at John Lewis - would be more profitable than this has proven, taking up less space too.

It was my first big box purchase. Reckon it will end up being the last as well.

 

Percentage wise, caterham and yellow sub beats this set hands down.

[Val-E]

Time to take stock a full 2 years after retirement and on EU ebay this is selling for 250 euros or 220 at auction - basically RRP after fees. Bricklink prices are also in the 250 bracket with just under 100 listings.

Over at Amazon, starting prices are closer to 400 euros.

[Fenix_2k1]

29 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Time to take stock a full 2 years after retirement and on EU ebay this is selling for 250 euros or 220 at auction - basically RRP after fees. Bricklink prices are also in the 250 bracket with just under 100 listings.

Over at Amazon, starting prices are closer to 400 euros.

A real victim of the Lego investment hype machine. Lots of tumblers in rookie hands keeping prices down.  I sold most of my stock middle of last year locally at 230 when it had stayed stagnant for a year. Kept one back for the longer term.  Such a shame as it is a great display set of probably the best post 60's Batmobile from the best Batman film in my eyes. 

[Val-E]

I wonder how the numbers will evolve a year from now.

Every year of stagnation is a year closer to the remake.

 

[wotguvnotmeguv]

I sat out last week’s eBay promo, to gauge current pricing and volume on a few sets, and next time up I’m getting rid. I can’t moan about newbies having them in hand, because this was the set that marked my intro to investing, but its performance has been flat as a pancake.

An expensive, space-consuming disappointment. In time - a lot of time - I wouldn’t be surprised to see it be a great performer, but equally it could be remade.

This and Sanctum Santorum have turned me off SH sets entirely for investment. But at least I can bury my cases of the latter in a discreet corner, assuming it may make it up to RRP at some point before I die.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

2 hours ago, wotguvnotmeguv said:

I sat out last week’s eBay promo, to gauge current pricing and volume on a few sets, and next time up I’m getting rid. I can’t moan about newbies having them in hand, because this was the set that marked my intro to investing, but its performance has been flat as a pancake.

An expensive, space-consuming disappointment. In time - a lot of time - I wouldn’t be surprised to see it be a great performer, but equally it could be remade.

This and Sanctum Santorum have turned me off SH sets entirely for investment. But at least I can bury my cases of the latter in a discreet corner, assuming it may make it up to RRP at some point before I die.

Same here, I also now avoid the SH theme. I bought 2x 76060 Dr. Strange for £14 each and there'll barely make a profit now as there's so many for sale now. I'll likely give them away as presents eventually. I'm also very surprised about the poor Tumbler performance and it's now slowly putting me off "UCS-Type" sets. Buyers are also more savvy and more will now buy while on general sale rather then pay through the nose after EOL. The Tumbler is a fantastic set, so why aren't people paying good money for them?!

Edited January 28, 2018 by TabbyBoy

[HandyHand]

39 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

The Tumbler is a fantastic set, so why aren't people paying good money for them?!

Maybe people are forgetting about the movies already? The Tumbler is very specifically tied to the Christopher Nolan directed Batman Trilogy. In the mean time we now have the DC Universe movies with a new Batman. The older Batman Trilogy has now become movie history and shares a space with the Tim Burton directed Batman films.

Unlike Star Wars which keeps the movies in canon so the older movies are still relevant and where new Star Wars fans will still like old UCS sets.

I think that's a major explanation for the lack of interest in The Tumbler.

[MrToes16]

2 hours ago, wotguvnotmeguv said:

 I can’t moan about newbies having them in hand, because this was the set that marked my intro to investing

I'm in that boat as well. I had slowly started buying a few smaller and medium sized sets here and there when my period of craze started. Tumbler was the first big set I bought for investing and I paid RRP. I looked at it with such proud eyes and ear to ear grins. I guess it is lucky for me that I only bought the one since I wasn't trying to get into this game slowly.

For me, I will go down with the ship with this set in my closet for the rest of time until I know for sure the profit will be worth it. I'm still marking the days on my calendars.

[cladner]

stumbler seller count has finally come down from 70s-90s to the 40s on amazon.  it was actually staging a mild rally over the summer - i sold a couple for peak price of  $335, but now its back to $310.  still not as bad as dread 5 which is going for $295.

 this set will show non-linear price appreciation which will come down to a seller count price threshold.  some sellers have the capital, patience, disdain for cagr, that they will be in the game when there are fewer than 25 sellers at which point i think the set will be $500+.  when that will be is another question. fact remains, could have more than doubled your money many other ways than by placing money in this set.  certainly the highly broadcast lengthy pre-retirement resulted in a large amount being stashed which only hurt post-retirement performance.  

we just passed the 10 year anniversary of Heath Ledger's passing with nary a peep from the fleetfully minded pop culture.  i thought the 10 year annivesary of the release of dark knight would initiate some kind of interest but maybe not.  i sold off half my stash in the last 6 months and put the proceeds into the pink, purple, and teal where i know i can make some money.

Edited January 28, 2018 by cladner

[Cheese]

I'm in that boat as well. I had slowly started buying a few smaller and medium sized sets here and there when my period of craze started. Tumbler was the first big set I bought for investing and I paid RRP. I looked at it with such proud eyes and ear to ear grins. I guess it is lucky for me that I only bought the one since I wasn't trying to get into this game slowly.

For me, I will go down with the ship with this set in my closet for the rest of time until I know for sure the profit will be worth it. I'm still marking the days on my calendars.

Tumbler retiring also coincided with my coming out of my dark ages, but to be honest, I don’t know why people are so scathing about this from an investment perspective? I bought four direct from SAH at RRP. As well as VIP points I got free gingerbread House and Xmas Tree decoration. Was able to bank about £30 profit on the pair of those and with VIP points buy in was effectively £145. Sold three of my tumblers for between £250 and £275 and with £1 FVF cleared on average of £120 on each. And that was all within the last year. In my eyes that’s good enough for me. Anymore and people are having delusions of grandeur. Problem was that many new players (including myself) were expecting this to be a £300 set within a year. Key to investing is being able to adapt and change ones strategy as a result of changes in he market

[Val-E]

Compared with the 2016 retirements, that is a stellar performance but compared with pre 2015, it´s tripe.

This set came one year too late in the investment game, or it´s status would be totally different.

[wotguvnotmeguv]

In at RRP has hurt it from my end, and it was an expensive lesson. Not one I’ll make again in a hurry.

It’s when you look at the outlay and the space it takes up, and realise how many Mystery Machines were just sitting on store shelves by the dozen while people were falling over one another to pay £10 over the odds at Smyths.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

19 minutes ago, wotguvnotmeguv said:

In at RRP has hurt it from my end, and it was an expensive lesson. Not one I’ll make again in a hurry.

It’s when you look at the outlay and the space it takes up, and realise how many Mystery Machines were just sitting on store shelves by the dozen while people were falling over one another to pay £10 over the odds at Smyths.

I was lucky as I bought it all with VIP points, but those points should've still gone towards something better, like an Elves set at 50% off?

[pete411]

This set has taken off like a rocket compared to ToO, which sells for RRP plus taxes on both Amazon and eBay. At least with Tumbler I’m making $50 on each sale.

[wotguvnotmeguv]

And of course my first sale has been almost immediately cancelled as the buyer “accidentally bought two” (ie: sent offers to multiple sellers). So that’s screwed me out of benefitting from last weekend’s FVF promotion on this one, and saddled me with it for a few weeks more.

[Val-E]

42 minutes ago, wotguvnotmeguv said:

And of course my first sale has been almost immediately cancelled as the buyer “accidentally bought two” (ie: sent offers to multiple sellers). So that’s screwed me out of benefitting from last weekend’s FVF promotion on this one, and saddled me with it for a few weeks more.

Buying one was careless enough!

[Fenix_2k1]

The really annoying thing is this set is still popular and still sells frequently.  It's just the sheer numbers hoarded holding it back. It was a perfect storm that ruined what could have been a good investment.

[guiriman]

1 hour ago, wotguvnotmeguv said:

And of course my first sale has been almost immediately cancelled as the buyer “accidentally bought two” (ie: sent offers to multiple sellers). So that’s screwed me out of benefitting from last weekend’s FVF promotion on this one, and saddled me with it for a few weeks more.

What price did they 'buy' it at? Had a similar experience last year, had to go through the whole non-paying bidder process to get the money back though

[wotguvnotmeguv]

7 minutes ago, guiriman said:

What price did they 'buy' it at? Had a similar experience last year, had to go through the whole non-paying bidder process to get the money back though

£220. They hadn’t paid though, so it was an instant refund of the £1 fee.

Top seller active at the moment has sold 16 out of 20 at £240.

[guiriman]

13 minutes ago, wotguvnotmeguv said:

£220. They hadn’t paid though, so it was an instant refund of the £1 fee.

Top seller active at the moment has sold 16 out of 20 at £240.

Mine's listed at £235, but it's not mint. Will just go for £225 next time there's an offer on fees

[wotguvnotmeguv]

This is almost certainly covered elsewhere, and I know there's the packaging megathread, but I can't find anything specific to this set.

I got some shipping boxes that sounded like a good fit for the Tumbler, but they're a couple of cm too shallow, presumably because the dimensions are taken from outside rather than in (they're very generously double-walled). No huge deal as I need boxes of that sort of size for general packing anyway.

Is there a proven UK Amazon Prime-shippable solution that (relatively) neatly accommodates this set?

I do have the boxes my Tumblers arrived in from Smyth's, but they're flimsy and pretty poor quality, if I'm being generous.

Edited February 19, 2018 by wotguvnotmeguv

[Guest TabbyBoy]

17 hours ago, wotguvnotmeguv said:

This is almost certainly covered elsewhere, and I know there's the packaging megathread, but I can't find anything specific to this set.

I got some shipping boxes that sounded like a good fit for the Tumbler, but they're a couple of cm too shallow, presumably because the dimensions are taken from outside rather than in (they're very generously double-walled). No huge deal as I need boxes of that sort of size for general packing anyway.

Is there a proven UK Amazon Prime-shippable solution that (relatively) neatly accommodates this set?

I do have the boxes my Tumblers arrived in from Smyth's, but they're flimsy and pretty poor quality, if I'm being generous.

If the boxes you have are single-walled, forget it. LEGO's outer cartons are nowhere good enough for the careless couriers these days. Double-walled with enough space for 2-3 layers of large bubble-wrap would be the minimum I would use. I know, it's a lot of hassle for a turkey like this. I got my boxes from ACS Direct custom made at £1 each if you buy 500x or more and they are also good for Sea Cows, Modulars, Xerions, etc.

[guiriman]

On 2/7/2018 at 11:00 AM, guiriman said:

Mine's listed at £235, but it's not mint. Will just go for £225 next time there's an offer on fees

I lied, I listed it for £229.99 with £1 fees. Sold in five days and I'm done with Tumblers!

[wotguvnotmeguv]

Just been whistling a happy tune packaging my last one up. 

So long as they don’t come back to haunt me via returns, that’s a huge weight off my shoulders, and no little storage freed up either. 

[dimicoco]

Hi everyone, want your opinion on this. 

I've been holding on this set and value has gone up aprox. 60% since retail, however value has dipped slightly. Do you think this set holds more value in the long term or worth selling now.

Would like an investor's point of view, thanks.