76023 - The Tumbler

[marcandre]

Both are good investments at $200 

Neither are good investments at $300

Edited September 5, 2016 by marcandre

[Lordoflego]

As many answers-as many opinions....good like deciding now  

[zulkifleeabd]

Thks for your comments.

[dcdfan]

Ambitious. I love it.

[Val-E]

I´m moving towards officially declaring this a dud in Europe. Marginal upward evolution since January, plenty of stock and it´s coming up for almost a year retired.

[Sprocket77]

3 minutes ago, Val-E said:

I´m moving towards officially declaring this a dud in Europe. Marginal upward evolution since January, plenty of stock and it´s coming up for almost a year retired.

About 50% growth above RRP and retirement date in Europe means nothing on this set. Look at this a year after Smyths ran out of stock and that might be more relevant.

[Val-E]

2 minutes ago, Sprocket77 said:

About 50% growth above RRP and retirement date in Europe means nothing on this set. Look at this a year after Smyths ran out of stock and that might be more relevant.

I haven´t seen a single one go for 300 euros yet and there are plenty at 260-270 that are not moving. The market for retired sets seems to have been in stagnation for quite some time now and this is just one of the sets affected  but all that hype around it  means people have a right to expect more. 

[feed]

23 minutes ago, Val-E said:

I haven´t seen a single one go for 300 euros yet and there are plenty at 260-270 that are not moving. The market for retired sets seems to have been in stagnation for quite some time now and this is just one of the sets affected  but all that hype around it  means people have a right to expect more. 

What were you actually expecting? 

Nine months after the largest glut and “better than gold” hoarding and it’s trending at £230 during a 50% fees discount.   Not to mention it was widely available £129.99 in December.   If I moved all mine today, I’d gross around £70 per, on a £130 purchase in less than 10 months.  

 

[Val-E]

I didn´t expect it to be outperformed by 75055 and 75054.

[Brian Briggs]

21 minutes ago, feed said:

What were you actually expecting? 

Nine months after the largest glut and “better than gold” hoarding and it’s trending at £230 during a 50% fees discount.   Not to mention it was widely available £129.99 in December.   If I moved all mine today, I’d gross around £70 per, on a £130 purchase in less than 10 months.  

 

That extemely cheap buy-in was only available in the UK, wasn't it? Here you had to pay full RRP.

[dcdfan]

[feed]

24 minutes ago, Brian Briggs said:

That extemely cheap buy-in was only available in the UK, wasn't it? Here you had to pay full RRP.

Sure, but cheap GBP and GSP is going to affect the Euro price. My sales have moved from around 10% EU to 30%.  I haven’t moved any Tumblers yet, but I’ve sold R2’s to France for example. 
 

[Fenix_2k1]

Personally I'm waiting to see what happens in the new year.  I think this Christmas is going to be panic central for a lot of new investors who were expecting exclusives to pay for an awesome Christmas but now realise they just need to liquidate. Tumblers and UCS X Wings could possibly go down short term and wouldn't be surprised to see people selling EV, SC, TB and SoH below RRP either.

 

[feed]

32 minutes ago, Val-E said:

I didn´t expect it to be outperformed by 75055 and 75054.

Maybe not, but that’s just more evidence that it really is a demand driven market.  

I know we were all expecting SW to pull the market along, but not to the extent it did. 

[Sprocket77]

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

I haven´t seen a single one go for 300 euros yet and there are plenty at 260-270 that are not moving. The market for retired sets seems to have been in stagnation for quite some time now and this is just one of the sets affected  but all that hype around it  means people have a right to expect more. 

Quite a few of them seem to have moved at £250 in the last few weeks, so almost €300. Course people can expect more, but give it a bit of time. You say it's retired almost a year, I bought one off SAH in February, so well short of a year yet and the oversupply from Smyths means that growth for all of Europe, not just Ireland and the UK, will be held back for a while. If you come back in another 8 months or so and it's still like this, then we can be worried.

 

 

[wotguvnotmeguv]

I expect the price to start shifting when the Lego Batman film comes out next year. Plenty will bale out at Christmas anyway, many will then chance their arm when the movie hype machine's in overdrive.

This time next year there'll be nowhere near as many on the open market.

[ZULU]

2 hours ago, Val-E said:

I´m moving towards officially declaring this a dud in Europe. Marginal upward evolution since January, plenty of stock and it´s coming up for almost a year retired.

Superheroes always a tough sell in Europe

[Val-E]

21 minutes ago, ZULU said:

Superheroes always a tough sell in Europe

I agree, the market seems to be driven by UK sellers and buyers and even then the number of actual sales on Ebay is poor, which is why the price stays anchored below 300 euros.

We can expect more of the same this winter as SW franchise once again blow everything else out of the water. The lack of innovative excusives and big new SW playsets should help ramp up more demand for ISD, AT AT and OT X Wings.

[CrabslayerT]

My Buy-in was closer to the 120 mark, for both the Tumbler and R5. Happy enough at the moment knowing that i´m more than covered. I´m also happy to let the both of them stew for the foreseeable as I think they´ll be most profitable in 3-5 years. On the other hand, Pretty sure I´ll be getting rid of as many at-ats as i can this xmas, for fear of a remake or the more than likely reléase of an AT-ACT at some point in the not so distant future

[tractorboy]

4 hours ago, Val-E said:

I haven´t seen a single one go for 300 euros yet and there are plenty at 260-270 that are not moving. The market for retired sets seems to have been in stagnation for quite some time now and this is just one of the sets affected  but all that hype around it  means people have a right to expect more. 

This one went for €320 last month:

http://www.ebay.ie/itm/LEGO-DC-Comics-Super-Heroes-76023-Batman-The-Tumbler-Neu-OVP-/201643808150?hash=item2ef2e85596:g:tYwAAOSwGotWkrte

There were others that sold for around €296 last month also. Smyths deluge of this set at EOL has obviously slowed it's rise, along with the sterling drop post Brexit. The best thing this set has going for it is it's demand, which is still very high for a big set exclusive. They practically sell on a daily basis on ebay EU, which is more than any other retired exclusive that I can think off. Eventually this demand will see it hit better prices as stocks thin out. It's taken longer than I hoped, but it's certainly no dud.

Also, there will not be a remake, which is an inevitability with 75055 and 75054.

Edited September 13, 2016 by tractorboy

[tractorboy]

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

I agree, the market seems to be driven by UK sellers and buyers and even then the number of actual sales on Ebay is poor, which is why the price stays anchored below 300 euros.

...

The number of sales is poor? Compared to what? You're talking nonsense.

[Val-E]

Same seller relisted it for 10 euros less. Buyer´s remorse, perhaps?

[tractorboy]

8 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Same seller relisted it for 10 euros less. Buyer´s remorse, perhaps?

No, he put another up for sale using the same picture on 17th August (the same day the €320 one was sold) presumably for the same price. Then he adjusted the price to €309 on 4th September.

[Val-E]

12 minutes ago, tractorboy said:

No, he put another up for sale using the same picture on 17th August (the same day the €320 one was sold) presumably for the same price. Then he adjusted the price to €309 on 4th September.

 

29 minutes ago, tractorboy said:

The number of sales is poor? Compared to what? You're talking nonsense.

As I said in my original post, take the UK sellers out of the equation  and sales are mediocre. Guys cutting their listing prices tends to back that up.

As others have said, once UK stock is more depleted, things could get better, but I think it will take a lot longer than 8 more months.

[tractorboy]

5 minutes ago, Val-E said:

 

As I said in my original post, take the UK sellers out of the equation  and sales are mediocre. Guys cutting their listing prices tends to back that up.

As others have said, once UK stock is more depleted, things could get better, but I think it will take a lot longer than 8 more months.

Non UK sales seem to be doing fine compared to other retired exclusives. A glut of cheap UK listings is bound to effect non-UK sales. More UK sellers are happy to sell at £250 with a buy-in of £150 or less. To a Euro buyer, the set is essentially €25 cheaper from a UK seller than what it would have been before brexit, so UK sellers are making more than their fair share of sales. The guy who sold at €320 just got lucky, so it's no surprise he's having to drop to €310. Even €300 would be a more realistic expectation.

I think it will take a year longer to what it might have taken to hit €400, thanks to Smyths and brexit. It's a pity, but it's no fault of the set. I think it's still a great set with wide appeal beyond the SH market, and that's being reflected in the high number of sales it makes. It's turned a 2-3 hold into a 3-4 year hold for me.