76023 - The Tumbler

[wotguvnotmeguv]

Just spoke to a Smyths employee and he said his branch has been getting constant enquiries - in person and by phone - about Tumblers.

They haven't had a sniff of one in weeks, but the eager buyers keep coming, and those turning up to the store are generally non-regulars who have tended to spend some kind of money in the store regardless to make the trip worthwhile. He pointed a customer out to me who had just been in to ask if they had any - he was carrying several TFA sets selling at RRP, so didn't strike me as the most learned of investors if he wasn't buying to build. 

Smyths man didn't know where the last remnants of stock came from in this instance but offered that in the dying embers of a Lego line there's often one last hit of stock that turns up after shelves have emptied. Just that this one seems to have been a particularly large hit and the demand had been huge - most he's seen for a non-SW set. He's positive that home delivery is completely done now, and that any stock showing on the website represent the last the company have.

[c_rpg]

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

Crusty makes a good point. Resellers buying from other resellers is great for those that quick flip like me  but creates a headache for long term hoarders because in a given moment that they need capital they will be stuck. Long term keeping is fine for people that are well-off with plenty of storage space but I think a lot of mere mortals who purchased above RRP are going to be disappointed with returns down the line.

I can give examples of sets such as 10216, 10229, 8110 and 10197 which werre hoarded in such numbers that appreciation over the last year or so has remained stagnant. Before, people would have said, "No problem, let´s sit it out another year and another until stock diminishes"  but when so many  sealed units are on the market the effect could well take a decade. Then lego bring out a remake or reissue and what happens?

When the effect becomes too widespread people will no longer jump on recently retired sets in the fear the price will only increase and there won´t be a post EOL boost either!

I don't think you can compare those sets to this one. None of them are UCS and none of them are licensed (except for the Mercedes, technically). The fact is this set has a lot of attributes which make it highly collectible:

• licensed theme with tons of fans (Batman)
• vehicle and minifigs are unique and appear in one of the most popular/iconic movies of the last decade (The Dark Knight)
• it's a UCS set
• there is another Batman movie coming out in march (Batman vs Superman)
• relatively short run (1 year)

All these facts were part of the reason people invested in these so much. I don't think a large supply will outweigh the large demand. The price has not gone up that much because a lot of people want a quick profit.

[lostontheverglow]

2 hours ago, c_rpg said:

I don't think you can compare those sets to this one. None of them are UCS and none of them are licensed (except for the Mercedes, technically). The fact is this set has a lot of attributes which make it highly collectible:

• licensed theme with tons of fans (Batman)
• vehicle and minifigs are unique and appear in one of the most popular/iconic movies of the last decade (The Dark Knight)
• it's a UCS set
• there is another Batman movie coming out in march (Batman vs Superman)
• relatively short run (1 year)

All these facts were part of the reason people invested in these so much. I don't think a large supply will outweigh the large demand. The price has not gone up that much because a lot of people want a quick profit.

While those are all valid points, I think you're missing one point: hype. Tumbler EOL coincided with the largest influx of investors that Lego has ever seen. A lot of investors who bought this set bought it simply because it was "the thing" to buy at the time they started investing in Lego. What we may see as "large demand" could simply be resellers buying each others' products. If anything, the ratio of hoarders:end users is way higher than any of those other sets.

I actually think Tumbler will do well and have posted about those points you've mentioned (mainly that it's one of a few displayable superhero Lego), but just playing devil's advocate for a second.

[Val-E]

2 hours ago, c_rpg said:

2 hours ago, c_rpg said:

I don't think you can compare those sets to this one. None of them are UCS and none of them are licensed (except for the Mercedes, technically). The fact is this set has a lot of attributes which make it highly collectible:

• licensed theme with tons of fans (Batman)
• vehicle and minifigs are unique and appear in one of the most popular/iconic movies of the last decade (The Dark Knight)
• it's a UCS set
• there is another Batman movie coming out in march (Batman vs Superman)
• relatively short run (1 year)

All these facts were part of the reason people invested in these so much. I don't think a large supply will outweigh the large demand. The price has not gone up that much because a lot of people want a quick profit.

 

I agree with most of your points except for the last one - it´s not the time produced that counts so much as the quantity and the amount of advance warning before retirement.

Most sensible vendors will be sitting on theirs with the  reasons you give to justify future expectations of value - these were the same valid reasons given on this thread even before the item was released. The issue is that the long advance warning of retirement coupled with this long window of opportunity to source them means that the "wrong" people are able to stockpile them in large quantities so there will be a glut of them to move on at some stage.

I am seeing that popular sets, which retired several years ago before th golden rush of "Lego is worth more than stocks", are still abundant on the market and that makes me doubt about sets like these which have been targetted as reseller gold from the get go. It is affordable enough to be stockpiled and there isn´t the same turnover as with Star Wars OT or Modulars  which reduces the number of sealed sets on the market.

More and more we are seeing average non licensed sets like the Lego employee gifts or the small City ones that get pulled after 9-12 months soar whereas the supposedly in-demand larger licensed exclusives stagnate.

[Crustybeaver]

2 hours ago, guiriman said:

Not necessarily. If their buy-in is +£40 versus retail price (where a lot seem to have bought in) then theoretically their exit point is also +£40 so you can clear your stock before the price reaches a level where these come flooding back into the market. Depends a lot on what people are willing to accept mind you.

If posts on this forum can be anything to go by I believe there are plenty of new sellers that don't even factor fees, postage and tax into a reselling equation. I believe there are people that would happily sell a Tumbler for £5-10 profit, to some profit is profit no matter how small it is. Increased amounts of quick flippers all competing for sales are responsible for creating a plateau. Most resellers, let alone general public cannot get a sniff of a Tumbler through retail stores so eBay or Amazon is there only option. The prices should be sitting around the £250+ mark now, however due to Smyths stock being available in constant supply to some Tumblers are being flipped for measly easy profits. Once the retail stock dries up we should see a decent rise in profits.

[Squashmike10]

3 hours ago, Crustybeaver said:

If posts on this forum can be anything to go by I believe there are plenty of new sellers that don't even factor fees, postage and tax into a reselling equation. I believe there are people that would happily sell a Tumbler for £5-10 profit, to some profit is profit no matter how small it is. Increased amounts of quick flippers all competing for sales are responsible for creating a plateau. Most resellers, let alone general public cannot get a sniff of a Tumbler through retail stores so eBay or Amazon is there only option. The prices should be sitting around the £250+ mark now, however due to Smyths stock being available in constant supply to some Tumblers are being flipped for measly easy profits. Once the retail stock dries up we should see a decent rise in profits.

as newbie tumbler was on my list. Probably because missed r2d2, gutted and not paying £300 plus on e-bay. Recon tumbler should be similar, Eventually.

My problem is having seen it built temptation to open it is massive.

 

[dcdfan]

5 minutes ago, Squashmike10 said:

My problem is having seen it built temptation to open it is massive.

I'm currently wrestling with this myself...I'm 90% sure I'm gonna open one up. I know from past experience, if I wait too long, it doesn't happen...

Edited February 24, 2016 by dcdfan

[Jdsomer]

58 minutes ago, dcdfan said:

I'm currently wrestling with this myself...I'm 90% sure I'm gonna open one up. I know from past experience, if I wait too long, it doesn't happen...

If you've got one to build, build it. It's a great build.

[pcaster]

Agreed - just recently cracked the seals on the worst of the ones that I received from Target.  I don't get to build very much as I just don't have the free time but I'm halfway through the build (5 instruction books, so plenty of points to pause) and don't regret breaking it open one bit.

Sell it used in a couple years and it will have cost what, $10-20?

DO IT!  

[Phil B]

1 minute ago, pcaster said:

... snip ...

Sell it used in a couple years and it will have cost what, $10-20?

 

Assuming you don't mean that it'll sell used for $10-20 less than his purchase price, it will likely not _cost_ him anything, but just bring him a few percent point less profit on the set. It would only cost him if used values of the Tumbler stay below MSRP or whatever discounted price he paid This of course unless he has already spent the planned profit on something else, which would be really bad practice.....

[pcaster]

Wow.  Didn't think it was that complicated.  Cost meaning it will net 10-20 less to sell used than keeping it sealed...

[Phil B]

3 minutes ago, pcaster said:

Wow.  Didn't think it was that complicated.  Cost meaning it will net 10-20 less to sell used than keeping it sealed...

Nope, wasn't complicated, was just me being anal ....

[Squashmike10]

17 minutes ago, pcaster said:

Sell it used in a couple years and it will have cost what, $10-20?

DO IT!  

Think that's the thing, if there good sets which you like, you can buy and build and in few years sell on for almost much what you paid. 

So happiness value of walking in and seeing the thing sat there, vs looking at the box all pristine.

obviously wish I could buy two but I'm, ewok village is calling.

[My_own_2_bricks]

Seal codes from most recent Amazon availability. 41R5 , whew. xxR6 might have caused some sleepless nights.

[Dr. Brick]

14 hours ago, lostontheverglow said:

While those are all valid points, I think you're missing one point: hype. Tumbler EOL coincided with the largest influx of investors that Lego has ever seen. A lot of investors who bought this set bought it simply because it was "the thing" to buy at the time they started investing in Lego. What we may see as "large demand" could simply be resellers buying each others' products. If anything, the ratio of hoarders:end users is way higher than any of those other sets.

I actually think Tumbler will do well and have posted about those points you've mentioned (mainly that it's one of a few displayable superhero Lego), but just playing devil's advocate for a second.

I absolutely agree with your statement here. With all the hype on Lego investors a lot of'investors' will see the Tumbler as the set to make a quick buck and I think quite a few will realize within the next 6-12 months that  Lego investing is not nearly as easy as it may look. Some will leave just as quickly as they got into it for several reasons including running out of investment capital, realizing that ot takes quite a bit longer to turn a profit to experiencing  that selling their investment will not be as easy as it seems. Regardless, this set will do well. I just really hope that Lego has not increased their production numbers of many of their sets in production because of the inflated demand caused by these 'investors' since that will hurt all involved over time. The hype reminds me of the real estate boom of the late 1990's when tons of people became a 'real estate agent' to help turn the real estate market into the big mess it became roughly a decade ago

[newbie77]

12 minutes ago, Dr. Brick said:

I absolutely agree with your statement here. With all the hype on Lego investors a lot of'investors' will see the Tumbler as the set to make a quick buck and I think quite a few will realize within the next 6-12 months that  Lego investing is not nearly as easy as it may look. Some will leave just as quickly as they got into it for several reasons including running out of investment capital, realizing that ot takes quite a bit longer to turn a profit to experiencing  that selling their investment will not be as easy as it seems. Regardless, this set will do well. I just really hope that Lego has not increased their production numbers of many of their sets in production because of the inflated demand caused by these 'investors' since that will hurt all involved over time. The hype reminds me of the real estate boom of the late 1990's when tons of people became a 'real estate agent' to help turn the real estate market into the big mess it became roughly a decade ago

i thought GE #10211 was that tumbler is past that point. 

[tyclin]

16 minutes ago, Dr. Brick said:

I absolutely agree with your statement here. With all the hype on Lego investors a lot of'investors' will see the Tumbler as the set to make a quick buck and I think quite a few will realize within the next 6-12 months that  Lego investing is not nearly as easy as it may look. Some will leave just as quickly as they got into it for several reasons including running out of investment capital, realizing that ot takes quite a bit longer to turn a profit to experiencing  that selling their investment will not be as easy as it seems. Regardless, this set will do well. I just really hope that Lego has not increased their production numbers of many of their sets in production because of the inflated demand caused by these 'investors' since that will hurt all involved over time. The hype reminds me of the real estate boom of the late 1990's when tons of people became a 'real estate agent' to help turn the real estate market into the big mess it became roughly a decade ago

I somehow feel the same way. Investing in Lego will inevitably come to an end. Looking at Modular line: from market place, cafe corner, green grocer, fire brigade, grand emporium, town hall.... which were retired, to now who-knows-when-they-are-going-to-retire pet shop, palace cinema, to almost looking-very-similar-to-me parisian restaurant, detective's office, brick bank. ....

market place huge gain

cafe corner huge gain

green grocer less huge gain (but probably will)

fire brigade less less gain (might take years to hit the same level or never)

grand emporium less less gain (might never hit the same level)

town hall less gain (might or might not hit the same level)

pet shop, palace cinema (can't even gain any)

not to mention parisian restaurant, detective's office, brick bank; to me, I am getting numbed because they seem to lack character .... and they might be on the market for years.

currently, five modular models on the market?

Is it really they are so popular as building toy now? or is it so popular because of investment?

by looking at the growth in number of members of this forum since 2012 when I first joined, it is explosive but in a sick way. I am part of this.

 

[Squashmike10]

1 hour ago, tyclin said:

 

Is it really they are so popular as building toy now? or is it so popular because of investment?

by looking at the growth in number of members of this forum since 2012 when I first joined, it is explosive but in a sick way. I am part of this.

 

I think it's definitely the hype driving this. I joined very recently. I'm a builder but tend to only buy larger STARWARS sets. 

The forum has expanded my interest but still at heart love the build

I think many see lego as quick fix for quick cash. Banks are paying no interest so Any investments that gives when a moderate return are being flooded

 

[Dr. Brick]

6 hours ago, newbie77 said:

i thought GE #10211 was that tumbler is past that point. 

Actually, wasn't it the Fire Brigade 10197 that awoke the horse?

[Dr. Brick]

6 hours ago, tyclin said:

I somehow feel the same way. Investing in Lego will inevitably come to an end. Looking at Modular line: from market place, cafe corner, green grocer, fire brigade, grand emporium, town hall.... which were retired, to now who-knows-when-they-are-going-to-retire pet shop, palace cinema, to almost looking-very-similar-to-me parisian restaurant, detective's office, brick bank. ....

market place huge gain

cafe corner huge gain

green grocer less huge gain (but probably will)

fire brigade less less gain (might take years to hit the same level or never)

grand emporium less less gain (might never hit the same level)

town hall less gain (might or might not hit the same level)

pet shop, palace cinema (can't even gain any)

not to mention parisian restaurant, detective's office, brick bank; to me, I am getting numbed because they seem to lack character .... and they might be on the market for years.

currently, five modular models on the market?

Is it really they are so popular as building toy now? or is it so popular because of investment?

by looking at the growth in number of members of this forum since 2012 when I first joined, it is explosive but in a sick way. I am part of this.

 

I agree with most of your points but also keep in mind how massively quick and large Lego as a company has grown in the last three years from a name recognition and popular toy stnd point. So it is only natural for the investor base to grow along with that. The question will be, ehich one will wase/recede first. I think it'll be a sizeable portion of these investors for reasons I ststed above. recognition of production standpoint. Many more people buy Legos as this today 3 to 5 years ago. I like what the Lego company has done from a growth and branding perspective ove the last 5 years. And they may have produced sets or lines that have been so so but almost every kid and parent has heard about Lego as a toy company and it'll be tough to find a househokd without these plastic bricks

[cladner]

for all the leak-taking on it, GE's are selling within hours of listing on amazon at prices over 2x MSRP  16 months out from EOL.

if that's "less less gain",  i'll take it. 

The Tumbler is going to do very well next year when the 10 year anniversary of Ledger's passing and Dark Knight release whips up some Millennial teenage nostalgia.  selling it now is good if you have to pay off your credit cards and get a free dinner a Chili's.  it will be painful to read "What Set Did you sell today" thread next year and in the future though...

[legogregors]

On ‎2‎/‎25‎/‎2016 at 11:40 PM, My_own_2_bricks said:

Seal codes from most recent Amazon availability. 41R5 , whew. xxR6 might have caused some sleepless nights.

I swear my seal codes were 40R5 from Amazon and the box was in very good condition.

[dcdfan]

What's up with all these Target occurrences...? I hope they're all returns...

[legogregors]

Someone will need to post seal codes and condition from their recent Target deliveries..

[lazuli16]

My order from 2/12 was most definetly a return.  The tell tale sign was the packing tape they used in place of the standard seal codes . Everything was where it should be and it got added to the "To Be Built" queue