76023 - The Tumbler

[Sprocket77]

2 minutes ago, Val-E said:

I´m a stakeholder so I´d be up if it was up too! A lot are selling because it is a popular set that many buyers willl have missed out on and prices are still sensible but the trend in prices is ever downward whereas the SW exclusives are resisting better and selling just fine too.

Yeah, but are you comparing this to say Red Five, which you can't put your hands on at retail in Europe. The UK's a pretty big market, so the Tumbler still being available there has got to skew things a bit.

[Squashmike10]

So a mid to long term hold does this one then.

Fortunately I managed to win one in rafel so just a bit of import duty and the rest is profit, 

 

[Val-E]

14 minutes ago, Sprocket77 said:

Yeah, but are you comparing this to say Red Five, which you can't put your hands on at retail in Europe. The UK's a pretty big market, so the Tumbler still being available there has got to skew things a bit.

Exactly, the tumbler is effectively not a retired set as it is still available in some markets and the devaluation fo the pound is making UK sellers more competitive abroad. A rotten situation all round from an investment standpoint but great for those that missed out. The longer it continues, the wider the gap will get.

[macpro76]

You seem to be constantly down on this set, do you not think it's a bit too early to be saying that one way or the other? People can still get this in stores in the UK, which has got to be seriously affecting the market. There's also a lot of these selling, 20 in the last 3 days on ebay.

Those that are selling every are making a mistake. Lego is a time game. You have to hang on to it...for a while. Selling it for a quick 50-100 is not worth it (for me anyway) right now.

[Jdsomer]

34 minutes ago, Squashmike10 said:

Sorry new to this. Fees? Post and packaging. Are thete other fees?

Also as seller is it Always plus P&P or does it depend on site.

 

Yeah there's a fee to list on eBay, a final sale fee on eBay 9-10% of sale price including p&p fees, PayPal fee around 3-4% ish.

As for p&p fees that's up to the seller in how you list the item and for how much whether you charge the buyer p&p or you pay it.

When all taken into account the Tumblr selling for £200 has only made the seller about £15 hardly worth going to all the effort of finding one, fetching it and then boxing up and posting.

[Val-E]

It´s not so clear cut. We have seen that some sets are best sold in the initial spike (AA, ToO, GE, 4x4 crawler) and the money reinvested elsewhere. The tough thing is knowing which ones plateau soon after EOL and which are keepers. Sometimes there is no choice as there is no bump. If you plan on keeping everything for 8 years or more then it doesn´t apply but then you risk othr factors such as remakes.

[cladner]

8 minutes ago, Val-E said:

It´s not so clear cut. We have seen that some sets are best sold in the initial spike (AA, ToO, GE, 4x4 crawler) and the money reinvested elsewhere. The tough thing is knowing which ones plateau soon after EOL and which are keepers. Sometimes there is no choice as there is no bump. If you plan on keeping everything for 8 years or more then it doesn´t apply but then you risk othr factors such as remakes.

in the US, Grand Emporium (GE) sells very easily for $320 on amazon which is basically 2x MSRP.  i sold 5 at that price and reinvested in another 7 Pet Shops (up to 24 now).  Not a huge return but given that it was at one time the most hoarded set on brickpicker, I'm pretty happy with that return.  Luckily I have another 12 GE for later.  

Granted 2x MSRP is still on the meh side, but the other sets you have lumped with the GE are no where near 2x MSRP, at least in the US.

Edited February 23, 2016 by cladner

[Scatterbug]

8 minutes ago, macpro76 said:

Those that are selling every are making a mistake. Lego is a time game. You have to hang on to it...for a while. Selling it for a quick 50-100 is not worth it (for me anyway) right now.

They are not making a mistake for us. For prices to rise for the mid and long term holders the supply has to diminish.

[Val-E]

3 minutes ago, cladner said:

in the US, Grand Emporium (GE) sells very easily for $320 on amazon which is 2x MSRP if i ignore VIP and count tax - i sold 5 last week at that price and reinvested in another 7 Pet Shops.  Luckily I have another 12 GE.  The other sets you have lumped with the GE are no where near 2x MSRP.

They aren´t now because they have depreciated but 41999 was at 2.5 MSRP weeks after retirement and AA got to 1.5 here for a while. To get the best CAGR it was smarter to sell off and move on to Red5/Seacow/DS but hindsight is always 20/20.

[Val-E]

2 minutes ago, Val-E said:

7 minutes ago, cladner said:

in the US, Grand Emporium (GE) sells very easily for $320 on amazon which is basically 2x MSRP.  i sold 5 at that price and reinvested in another 7 Pet Shops (up to 24 now).  Not a huge return but given that it was at one time the most hoarded set on brickpicker, I'm pretty happy with that return.  Luckily I have another 12 GE for later.  

Granted 2x MSRP is still on the meh side, but the other sets you have lumped with the GE are no where near 2x MSRP, at least in the US.

They aren´t now because they have depreciated but 41999 was at 2.5 MSRP weeks after retirement and AA got to 1.5 here for a while. To get the best CAGR it was smarter to sell off and move on to Red5/Seacow/DS but hindsight is always 20/20.

I´d love to know what PS will do when it finally retires - it would seem to be either a quick flip or a long long term hoard based on FB and GE.

[guiriman]

1 hour ago, Jdsomer said:

When all taken into account the Tumblr selling for £200 has only made the seller about £15 hardly worth going to all the effort of finding one, fetching it and then boxing up and posting.

£200 - £20 (eBay 10%) - £7 (Paypal 3.4% + 20p) - £5.79 (Hermes UK parcel) = £167.21

You'd have to be a great purchaser to even make £15.

[HandyHand]

1 hour ago, Squashmike10 said:

Sorry new to this. Fees? Post and packaging. Are thete other fees?

Also as seller is it Always plus P&P or does it depend on site.

At eBay you have the option to put it up for "Buy it Now" (BIN) or auction. The BIN option has you pay a small fee up front to eBay, plus an additional percentage fee for the sold price. Listing an item for auction is initially free, but if you also pay a percentage fee for the sale price. 

Regarding P&P ... That's up to the seller. The seller can choose to include P&P in the final sale price, or charge the buyer additionally for P&P. Advantage of the latter is that eBay doesn't charge a fee over the additional P&P costs. But buyers will of course prefer a lot where shipment is included in the sale price so you'll have to compete with that if you exclude shipping.

[Phil B]

5 minutes ago, Haay said:

At eBay you have the option to put it up for "Buy it Now" (BIN) or auction. The BIN option has you pay a small fee up front to eBay, plus an additional percentage fee for the sold price. Listing an item for auction is initially free, but if you also pay a percentage fee for the sale price. 

Regarding P&P ... That's up to the seller. The seller can choose to include P&P in the final sale price, or charge the buyer additionally for P&P. Advantage of the latter is that eBay doesn't charge a fee over the additional P&P costs. But buyers will of course prefer a lot where shipment is included in the sale price so you'll have to compete with that if you exclude shipping.

... and that "eBay doesn't charge a fee over the additional P&P costs" is dependent on which country you are in  ... in the US Ebay does charge a fee over P&P. This is to prevent people from listing a $200 item as $1 BIN with $199 shipping just to avoid the fees.

[Jdsomer]

12 minutes ago, Haay said:

At eBay you have the option to put it up for "Buy it Now" (BIN) or auction. The BIN option has you pay a small fee up front to eBay, plus an additional percentage fee for the sold price. Listing an item for auction is initially free, but if you also pay a percentage fee for the sale price. 

Regarding P&P ... That's up to the seller. The seller can choose to include P&P in the final sale price, or charge the buyer additionally for P&P. Advantage of the latter is that eBay doesn't charge a fee over the additional P&P costs. But buyers will of course prefer a lot where shipment is included in the sale price so you'll have to compete with that if you exclude shipping.

eBay final sales fee is also payable on p&p charged for the item.

[HandyHand]

3 minutes ago, Phil B said:

... and that "eBay doesn't charge a fee over the additional P&P costs" is dependent on which country you are in  ... in the US Ebay does charge a fee over P&P. This is to prevent people from listing a $200 item as $1 BIN with $199 shipping just to avoid the fees.

I see. So that part is just lucky for me in The Netherlands.  Probably because eBay is still trying to gain a market share against the utter dominance of Marktplaats in The Netherlands.  

[Phil B]

1 minute ago, Haay said:

I see. So that part is just lucky for me in The Netherlands.  Probably because eBay is still trying to gain a market share against the utter dominance of Marktplaats in The Netherlands.  

Unlikely - ebay owns marktplaats.

[dcdfan]

Tumbler. Tumbler. Tumbler. Box condition. Anything. I love the Heath Ledger minifigure...

[Sprocket77]

7 minutes ago, Jdsomer said:

eBay final sales fee is also payable on p&p charged for the item.

Not everywhere it's not, as PhilB said in the post previous to yours, depends on the country you're in.

[HandyHand]

11 minutes ago, Phil B said:

Unlikely - ebay owns marktplaats.

I know eBay owns Marktplaats. They tried to compete and failed, so they did what most global companies do when they can't win against a locally dominant competitor: they buy them.   But eBay makes a higher profit from sales through their own eBay platform than the sales going through Marktplaats, where it's basically a free service for the regular users and only the semi-professional power-users have to pay. 

[Jdsomer]

10 minutes ago, Sprocket77 said:

Not everywhere it's not, as PhilB said in the post previous to yours, depends on the country you're in.

I only know for the UK, not for anywhere else.

[Phil B]

2 minutes ago, Haay said:

I know eBay owns Marktplaats. They tried to compete and failed, so they did what most global companies do when they can't win against a locally dominant competitor: they buy them.   But eBay makes a higher profit from sales through their own eBay platform than the sales going through Marktplaats, where it's basically a free service for the regular users and only the semi-professional power-users have to pay. 

Ok ... so the correct statement in your original post is: EBay is still trying to shift users from Marktplaats to Ebay to increase their profit, and therefore doesn't charge fees on postage. Also, the fact that the Netherlands is so small, and hence postage fees are rather uniform, will play a big role compared to the US where sending something from one end to the other end of the country might make a 2x difference in postage.

[teruhata]

76023 on Target awhile ago

[Crustybeaver]

20 hours ago, Scatterbug said:

They are not making a mistake for us. For prices to rise for the mid and long term holders the supply has to diminish.

In theory yes, however if the majority of sets being sold are being snapped up by investors then it's merely just adding to the problem.

[guiriman]

3 minutes ago, Crustybeaver said:

In theory yes, however if the majority of sets being sold are being snapped up by investors then it's merely just adding to the problem.

Not necessarily. If their buy-in is +£40 versus retail price (where a lot seem to have bought in) then theoretically their exit point is also +£40 so you can clear your stock before the price reaches a level where these come flooding back into the market. Depends a lot on what people are willing to accept mind you.

Quick numeric illustration: At £303 I am up £100 after all costs (excl. income tax), if I'd bought at £200 I'd need to sell at £354 for the same £100 return.

3 minutes ago, Crustybeaver said:

In theory yes, however if the majority of sets being sold are being snapped up by investors then it's merely just adding to the problem.

Not necessarily. If their buy-in is +£40 versus retail price (where a lot seem to have bought in) then theoretically their exit point is also +£40 so you can clear your stock before the price reaches a level where these come flooding back into the market. Depends a lot on what people are willing to accept mind you.

Quick numeric illustration: At £303 I am up £100 after all costs (excl. income tax), if I'd bought at £200 I'd need to sell at £354 for the same £100 return.

[Val-E]

Crusty makes a good point. Resellers buying from other resellers is great for those that quick flip like me  but creates a headache for long term hoarders because in a given moment that they need capital they will be stuck. Long term keeping is fine for people that are well-off with plenty of storage space but I think a lot of mere mortals who purchased above RRP are going to be disappointed with returns down the line.

I can give examples of sets such as 10216, 10229, 8110 and 10197 which werre hoarded in such numbers that appreciation over the last year or so has remained stagnant. Before, people would have said, "No problem, let´s sit it out another year and another until stock diminishes"  but when so many  sealed units are on the market the effect could well take a decade. Then lego bring out a remake or reissue and what happens?

When the effect becomes too widespread people will no longer jump on recently retired sets in the fear the price will only increase and there won´t be a post EOL boost either!

Edited February 24, 2016 by Val-E