76023 - The Tumbler

[jaxman]

3 hours ago, Bags751 said:

I have 4 right now (boxes are all in great condition, I wouldn't classify as mint because they were on shelves at local stores, but they aren't trampled).

One of my local Lego B&M still has Tumblers on their shelves. I'm wondering if I should try to pick up another one, or do you guys think 4 would be enough? I'm trying to also weigh the decision of buy another Tumbler for investment, or buy a 10231 Shuttle Expedition for $50 more for my personal collection.

 

Enough to build a 16 wheel Mega Tumbler sure!!!!  It's a capital allocation question.  Is your expected value for the $200 you spend on another Tumbler higher than your expected value for any other set than you could spend the $200 on?  If so, then yes.  Don't forget to factor in diversification and risk reduction benefits as well.  A non-Tumbler  set with not quite as high an expected return but less of a correlation to the Tumblers performance could offer risk reduction benefits for your portfolio.  And then you've got to factor in the personal utility benefits of buying and building a Shuttle Expedition.   Is that higher than the expected value of the Tumbler?

[MathBuilder]

4 hours ago, Bags751 said:

I have 4 right now (boxes are all in great condition, I wouldn't classify as mint because they were on shelves at local stores, but they aren't trampled).

One of my local Lego B&M still has Tumblers on their shelves. I'm wondering if I should try to pick up another one, or do you guys think 4 would be enough? I'm trying to also weigh the decision of buy another Tumbler for investment, or buy a 10231 Shuttle Expedition for $50 more for my personal collection.

 

enough has a very different meaning for each person. It depends on many many factors. Space, disposable income, time you are hoping to hold your investment, how new or seasoned are you in the game. What other LEGO interests you, what other LEGO you already have, what your spouse/family thinks is enough, etc. 

4 is chump change for emazers and emazers disciples. 4 might be about half way for most serious investors here that already know what they are doing and have sold many sets before. 4 might be just enough for somebody with a very diverse inventory that simply can't store/buy more. 4 might be above enough for a first day first set investor.

Also what will make you more happy 5 huge boxes that you can't open or one set that you can actually build and display?  

[MathBuilder]

12 hours ago, jaisonline said:

Yes. here's a pic (from google) of the 6080 king's castle's rear box.

That box has a monty python and the holy grail feel to it. 

[cladner]

5 hours ago, Bags751 said:

I have 4 right now (boxes are all in great condition, I wouldn't classify as mint because they were on shelves at local stores, but they aren't trampled).

One of my local Lego B&M still has Tumblers on their shelves. I'm wondering if I should try to pick up another one, or do you guys think 4 would be enough?

 

this is an ambiguous question.

4 would not be enough for me.

you have enough faith to put $800 in the set.  why not a few more?

there are people in this group who bought 30 of these at a time.

i went to the lego store on Tuesday - i would have bought a Tumbler if I could have gotten a mint one.  they had zero and the manager literally barked at me "NO - it's RETIRED" when I asked about the Tumbler.

I think I would buy any decent shaped Tumblers I could find in store despite the hoarding.  

The set has the demand.  Coupled with a short life, this is all very supportive for post-EOL price gains.

Early price gains may be muted by early sellers taking their money and run or mispricing and possibly not understanding the fees/costs involved with selling a set this large. 

Time flies.  2018 will be the 10 year anniversary of Heath Ledgers death and The Dark Knight release so we can expect significant uptick in interest and hopefully demand at that time.  at least that's what the voices in my head are telling me today.

Edited January 21, 2016 by cladner

[Anomander]

This is still well in stock in Ireland.  

This thread has been hopping non-stop since Christmas, and the most popular one with new members popping up with affirmations that this set is the one in which to take the plunge, in this post-viral Brave New Goldrush.

I, myself, effused with certainty here about it's enduring appeal in the distant future, primarily due to it being such a eye-catching replication of the iconic design.

Now, I never was starry-eyed in new-investor enthusiasm that it would start making those eyes water by commanding blockbusting prices lickedy split, rather, maybe 2xMRSP in a couple of years. Reading here, it's appreciated quite well in the USA already. 

I understand the immediate rise in online prices can be attributed somewhat to a degree to investor second-guessing themselves and regret, snapping up  some before it becomes prohibitive for a punt. Generally, the real indication of performance can only be gauged after a few months.

I wonder where it will cap in the medium term due to the deluge of these that were hoovered up by the stampeding new investors? 7000 new members on this site alone in 3 weeks! I keep watching the new member counter on the main page - a constant roll of new members within minutes of the previous - as an indication of how many people might be getting into the game on a bigger scale, since the good news was e-preached from on high. I see a good few new speculators on the national  websites. One hopeful punter even listing a tumbler for 250 euro despite it being available here from Smyths for 199! 

It feels like every fresh have-a-go-hero (myself included) is diving in feetfirst with the hype about this one. While you won't lose on buy-in with this set, and will certainly see an appreciaple return long term, i doubt it will breach 600 euros soon. I'd say even 500 might be the limit after 3-4 years. 

 

Of course, I could well be wrong and we's all be rich, I tells ya! Rich!!!!

Edited January 22, 2016 by Anomander
editing

[MAOJump]

12 hours ago, jaisonline said:

Yes. here's a pic (from google) of the 6080 king's castle's rear box.

Ok..,you got me very nostalgic here...I was in the dark ages from Lego and just came out has a new AFOL  2 weeks ago, when I discovered the Ghostbusters Firehouse.  My first big set my parents gave me was this 6080 Castle Set.  They let me sell it in a garage sale a few years later and my love for them has diminished a bit... NEVER will I let my kids sell Legos.    This is my first post in the forum after following you guys in the past 2 weeks.   Spent 3000$ in a week and 3 Tumblers, but I will mostly be a small collector with a few resells to manage my new addiction.   Saddened at missing out on so many UCS and will dedicate myself at learning the trade.

BTW, my wife has asked me to buy more Tumblers...did I marry well or did I marry well?

Now, I have to leave and find that set, in a box, at a realistic price, but my emotions might cause a stupid decision.  

[Sprocket77]

On ‎1‎/‎21‎/‎2016 at 11:22 AM, jaisonline said:

Yes. here's a pic (from google) of the 6080 king's castle's rear box.

My first big set as a kid, it was a great set, even if the portcullis was a bit finicky. It's amazing how often those pieces with the arches built in were then used to make houses or spaceships or anything but castles.

It's still in the attic of my parents house, I might try and find instructions somewhere and build it again.

[Sprocket77]

[jaisonline]

1 hour ago, Sprocket77 said:

Hey Benny, If only Lego investing was that easy.

[Sprocket77]

7 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

Hey Benny, If only Lego investing was that easy.

I know, but I only had so much room on the template 

I should have put in the financial products warning, "these products may rise as well as fall"

[Val-E]

Unfortunately, this was still not enough to offset the heavy depreciation that Benny´s own personal transportation vehicle suffered over the same period.

[jaisonline]

I'm going to add an updated poll about how many folk own a Tumbler that has been built by them and ownership #s (non-public poll so usernames won't be shown )

[Val-E]

Remember to put 0 too! Although maybe for this set it is superfluous....

[BarryZola]

Just a small update on the state of apparent UK Tumbler stock with regards to Smyths this week that I've seen or experienced etc.

Last week the Smyths website was saying that stock would be in from the 15th of Jan. However, this never happened as I was visiting various stores and keeping an eye on social media Lego groups and no new stock was emerging anywhere. On the 16th/17th the Smyths website was updated to say that stock would now not be in until the 26th to the 29th of Jan.

However, on Monday (18th) of this week (I think) in the morning a few of us UK members on here managed to get a delivery option and ordered some before they very quickly sold out (within an hour). They must not have had many available for delivery at that time. From Tuesday onwards they have been randomly appearing a few at a time in stores all over the country on different days. They're trickling out. On two occasions I've done a click to order at different stores (when they've briefly appeared for a matter of minutes) and turned up to collect and there was only one more extra available on the shelf to buy. I've been monitoring the buying/selling Lego groups on social media for the past couple of days and this is a pattern that I've also seen mentioned for people at different stores. Many of the people on the social media groups are actually planning to build theirs, fools (I jest).

Anyone reckon that these will continue to just trickle out slowly into random stores a few at a time and then just be gone completely by next week? I have a feeling they will and that would be good for our investments. I'm just guessing though.

[guiriman]

Two local ones both showed In Stock mid-afternoon yesterday, based on what that looked like when I picked up my Click and Collect order that is five or more. Both now show the 26th to 29th message, I'd be fairly confident they still have some. Incidentally the one they tried to give me had a small puncture wound on the box, will keep an eye out when passing to see if it gets reduced.

[Alibab86]

Hi guys, I've just signed up to the forum to give an update to uk members about the stock situation at smyths, my store has been showing coming into stock between the 26th-29th Jan, went into store yesterday to find none there, went into store this morning to find 4 on the shelf but still showing out of stock on the dropdown menu at my local on the website. I would definitely go to store or at least phone them if it's a bit far.

[Bearville]

While we were getting pounded with the white stuff, my wife and I decided to put together this magnificent set.  We really didn't have much of a choice because Target had sent us this one with a nice little rip/hole on the side.  It was weighed, so we were confident that everything was right here.  Bag one was opened and I immediately went to put together the Joker.  

Legs. Check.  Body. Check.  Hair.  Check.  Head.......

NOTHING!!!  We looked everywhere and couldn't find it.  As pissed as we were, we finished the set.  Luckily nothing else was missing.  I immediately went to the site and ordered a replacement part.  And of course, it was OUT OF STOCK!!!!!

After digging out, I decided to call Lego.  I couldn't accept the OOS notice and an email stating they MAY have found one.  I spoke to Mike at Lego and he located one immediately.  The piece will be in mailbox in 5-7 days.  On top of that, I was able to get 300 Lego points because the Tumblers SAH sent me were not all mint.  WIN/WIN!!  

 

[Deanfjr]

omg horror story, everyone open their tumblers & check for the joke head!

[Alpinemaps]

Did you double check the bags?  I recall that they split the parts to the minifigs for the Tumbler into different bags.

[plastic passion]

lol....  come to think of it... my first tumbler i received was open and i counted the bags....  having never put together a lego... i started looking for the figures, eventually i

found some hair... so i figured the bodies were there also.....    "maybe i got no head"  < lol....   should i go back and check them?     lol......  pp 

[Copterman]

3 hours ago, plastic passion said:

lol....  come to think of it... my first tumbler i received was open and i counted the bags....  having never put together a lego... i started looking for the figures, eventually i

found some hair... so i figured the bodies were there also.....    "maybe i got no head"  < lol....   should i go back and check them?     lol......  pp 

Can someone be banned for bad punctuation, grammar, and communication skills?

[Migration]

13 minutes ago, Copterman said:

Can someone be banned for bad punctuation, grammar, and communication skills?

You must be too new to remember Hxckid.

 

[Copterman]

11 minutes ago, Migration said:

You must be too new to remember Hxckid.

 

Maybe he came back under a different name?

[ravenb99]

On 1/20/2016 at 4:40 PM, Rimmit said:

Unless he just likes to lie to me for bo reason, and their is a huge target conspiracy, I am pretty sure they will not be sold.  He is a regional manager and is pretty attune to Target policies.   

Donated maybe, destroyed maybe, but salvaged items cannot be resold per him and any other employee I asked about them also states they cannot resell an item marked as salvage.  When my friend tried to buy my returns, he even asked to speak to the manager and the local store manager stated explicitly could not sell it as it was salvaged, and refused to sell him the returns.  They state they will just write it off as a loss in the end.

 

i could be wrong and Target has a separate spiel they feed people outside the inner circle as the higher ups just keep the salvaged merchandise to themselves.  Thats what I woukd do.

 

I wasn't speaking from speculation. I bid on target salvage weekly.  There are multiple avenues for the salvage and it is not destroyed. In store salvage is sold by the load at a set price and online is auctioned. There are also new loads with fixed pricing which can also contain lego. Never said he was lying just that is not what happens. Most store / regional managers don't know or care what happens after it is out of there hair.  And yes a small portion does wind up at goodwill.

[Migration]

8 minutes ago, ravenb99 said:

I wasn't speaking from speculation. I bid on target salvage weekly.  There are multiple avenues for the salvage and it is not destroyed. In store salvage is sold by the load at a set price and online is auctioned. There are also new loads with fixed pricing which can also contain lego. Never said he was lying just that is not what happens. Most store / regional managers don't know or care what happens after it is out of there hair.  And yes a small portion does wind up at goodwill.

As a 20 year target "employee"....TRU Dat.

 

And auto correct still comes up with TRU, awesome.

 

Edited January 24, 2016 by Migration