76023 - The Tumbler

[Rimmit]

16 hours ago, ravenb99 said:

No and no.  The tumblers will live on for someone else to sell...  

 

Unless he just likes to lie to me for bo reason, and their is a huge target conspiracy, I am pretty sure they will not be sold.  He is a regional manager and is pretty attune to Target policies.   

Donated maybe, destroyed maybe, but salvaged items cannot be resold per him and any other employee I asked about them also states they cannot resell an item marked as salvage.  When my friend tried to buy my returns, he even asked to speak to the manager and the local store manager stated explicitly could not sell it as it was salvaged, and refused to sell him the returns.  They state they will just write it off as a loss in the end.

 

i could be wrong and Target has a separate spiel they feed people outside the inner circle as the higher ups just keep the salvaged merchandise to themselves.  Thats what I woukd do.

 

[newbie77]

11 minutes ago, Rimmit said:

Unless he just likes to lie to me for bo reason, and their is a huge target conspiracy, I am pretty sure they will not be sold.  He is a regional manager and is pretty attune to Target policies.   

Donated maybe, destroyed maybe, but salvaged items cannot be resold per him and any other employee I asked about them also states they cannot resell an item marked as salvage.  When my friend tried to buy my returns, he even asked to speak to the manager and the local store manager stated explicitly could not sell it as it was salvaged, and refused to sell him the returns.  They state they will just write it off as a loss in the end.

 

i could be wrong and Target has a separate spiel they feed people outside the inner circle as the higher ups just keep the salvaged merchandise to themselves.  Thats what I woukd do.

 

afaik, they (i.e. target) has contracted an outside company to collect all salvage item.

TARGET does donate good chunk of item to goodwill including {lego}. i do know that a lot of source of goodwill auction from few locations are donation from TARGET. i am not sure at what point they go for "DONATION" vs. "SALVAGE" but long story short both does occur.

SALVAGE items are not "supposed" to be sold. but i have had those items sold to me for the "LAST SOLD PRICE" at which point it becomes pretty useless to buy and pay retail unless you find some harry potter sets.

Edited January 20, 2016 by newbie77

[jaylay]

got my one tumbler in today and i say 8/10 box condition ... weighed in at 7 pounds 10.5 ounces ... whats the average weight you folks have been getting?

[TigerJJ]

1 hour ago, jaylay said:

got my one tumbler in today and i say 8/10 box condition ... weighed in at 7 pounds 10.5 ounces ... whats the average weight you folks have been getting?

That sounds about right. Mines are shown as 7 lbs 10oz

[guiriman]

19 hours ago, Alfiepops said:

Yes I have a couple of addresses in the ROI but I just bought a new car and wanted to take it down the motorway for a spin. The Euro is good value to the pound at the minute so if i can find a sale then it is extra good,

Got one yesterday in my local Smyths (Northern Ireland) for £159.99, just used Click and Collect rather than risk any damage in transit, probably the first Lego I've bought in 15 years or so and my first foray into the 'investment game'. Not sure if I got a good deal or not. My wife's expression when she saw the size of the box was pure shock...not sure I'll be making any more large purchases soon, I might try to make a quick sale for £20/£30 profit and buy a new one just to convince her I'm not (totally) mad.

They had three or four Tumblers behind the Customer Service desk so doesn't seem to be a shortage.

[BarryZola]

Picked up 2 click 2 orders from 2 separate Smyths stores today. Both mint condition. Another couple of different stores have been showing stock today in England also. Looks like stock has been very slowly trickling in. At one of the stores I collected click to order they had an extra one on the shelf for sale also. Let's just say it's not there any more.

[BRIX23]

Ok, so I'm brand new to Lego as an investment.  Up to this point I track deals simply for building myself. I'm not a huge Batman fan, but the opportunity on the Tumbler as an investment intrigues me.  However, simply considering supply vs. demand to determine the price once this thing is finally sold out how much is it really going to be worth?  I have been checking Amazon off and on daily for the past few weeks and the stock tracker here.  It seems that there are a LOT of Tumblers still trickling out and most seem to be going to those who are in for the investment rather than personal use.  Won't all this stock just drive the prices down on the market over the next few years?  Just trying to make sense of it all.  

[Sprocket77]

4 hours ago, guiriman said:

Got one yesterday in my local Smyths (Northern Ireland) for £159.99, just used Click and Collect rather than risk any damage in transit, probably the first Lego I've bought in 15 years or so and my first foray into the 'investment game'. Not sure if I got a good deal or not. My wife's expression when she saw the size of the box was pure shock...not sure I'll be making any more large purchases soon, I might try to make a quick sale for £20/£30 profit and buy a new one just to convince her I'm not (totally) mad.

They had three or four Tumblers behind the Customer Service desk so doesn't seem to be a shortage.

How about you try and show your wife what a good idea this mallarky is without underselling the Tumbler. Doesn't £100 profit in 12 months sound so much better than £20/£30 profit now.

 

[mudcatsfan]

On ‎1‎/‎18‎/‎2016 at 5:45 PM, jaisonline said:

I'm finally building my 7784 Batmobile UCE set from 2006 and love these 2 pics. Boy, I sure miss the alternative build pics in back of the manuals.

Tumbler 2006 edition using 7784's elements.

This is AMAZING, i had no idea the older UCS sets had alternative build suggestions. Were there actual instructions or just the pics?

Any other sets have that?

What a value add!

-------------------

On a more pertinent note, the Tumbler seems to have cleared $300 USD already on Amazon, and it's only 3rd page to hit $400. This one is taking off it seems.

[Achilles]

36 minutes ago, rshafer23 said:

Ok, so I'm brand new to Lego as an investment.  Up to this point I track deals simply for building myself. I'm not a huge Batman fan, but the opportunity on the Tumbler as an investment intrigues me.  However, simply considering supply vs. demand to determine the price once this thing is finally sold out how much is it really going to be worth?  I have been checking Amazon off and on daily for the past few weeks and the stock tracker here.  It seems that there are a LOT of Tumblers still trickling out and most seem to be going to those who are in for the investment rather than personal use.  Won't all this stock just drive the prices down on the market over the next few years?  Just trying to make sense of it all.  

Depending on what your goals are, I'd say this is a "can't lose" at MSRP. What your top end may end up being, I am not sure - BUT, this is still trickling in and out at a couple places, it's only been "retired" a short time - it seems to be less hoarded than say X-Wing and Orthanc who have been gone longer - and Tumblers gains have been much better. Also, it seems to be hoarded less (or at least hoarded by fewer people).

It's already $300plus on Amazon with Prime. I don't see how this ends up less than $400 in the next 12-18 months. 

[guiriman]

34 minutes ago, Sprocket77 said:

How about you try and show your wife what a good idea this mallarky is without underselling the Tumbler. Doesn't £100 profit in 12 months sound so much better than £20/£30 profit now.

 

It does sound a lot better I'll admit, but having a year of grief every time I want to add some more Lego doesn't seem worth it. If I can convince her there's £300 coming in a year I can probably spend most of it in advance..

[dcurve]

42 minutes ago, rshafer23 said:

Ok, so I'm brand new to Lego as an investment.  Up to this point I track deals simply for building myself. I'm not a huge Batman fan, but the opportunity on the Tumbler as an investment intrigues me.  However, simply considering supply vs. demand to determine the price once this thing is finally sold out how much is it really going to be worth?  I have been checking Amazon off and on daily for the past few weeks and the stock tracker here.  It seems that there are a LOT of Tumblers still trickling out and most seem to be going to those who are in for the investment rather than personal use.  Won't all this stock just drive the prices down on the market over the next few years?  Just trying to make sense of it all.  

First of all welcome!!! 

Sure, but remember that price is a function of Supply and Demand not just one or the other. We also have to remember that sellers have reservation prices for things. So demand will likely relatively stay the same for this particular set and what will move is the reservation prices of sellers and of course (as you mentioned) supply. 

Some people will find themselves in a liquidity crunch and will sell at that time because they have to. Those movements will likely cause some price variability, but what will slowly change is the supply. Additionally, people don't want to sell at a significant loss, so the price floor will likely be retail + 30% or so. To handle taxes, fees and shipping....

Supply in this particular model is not very high. So given the constant demand, prices should rise as soon as supply starts to decrease. Investors are betting that the supply will decrease fast enough, over some expected interval, to make a very nice return.

So yes, as many of these are going to potentially competitive sellers in the same marketplace, most of us believe that there isn't enough supply of this model to keep prices down to the point where we will not make a decent return. + 60% 

I think you hit the head on the nail as far as what we try to pick as investors so we get that "magical" return. Of course when demand increases for a particular set and doesn't stay constant, then you really have a spike in pricing ... those are the best  

Being new to investing, the trick is to learn about what you think will do well and what won't. Of course half the fun is being wrong sometimes (see Sea Cow thread). You just hope it isn't too expensive a lesson ...

Edited January 21, 2016 by dcurve

[jaisonline]

2 hours ago, mudcatsfan said:

This is AMAZING, i had no idea the older UCS sets had alternative build suggestions. Were there actual instructions or just the pics?

Any other sets have that?

What a value add!

-------------------

On a more pertinent note, the Tumbler seems to have cleared $300 USD already on Amazon, and it's only 3rd page to hit $400. This one is taking off it seems.

Back in the day, Lego included alternate pics in instructions. No steps though. 

Even my Kings Castle from 1984 had it

[BRIX23]

Achilles and dcurve thanks for the advice!  I actually had placed an Amazon order for it the other day, but chickened out and canceled it shortly after.  I've had a change of heart today and was able to get an Amazon order to finally go through on it so fingers crossed this is a good buy and hold option.  Thanks!

[Metin]

2 hours ago, BarryZola said:

Picked up 2 click 2 orders from 2 separate Smyths stores today. Both mint condition. Another couple of different stores have been showing stock today in England also. Looks like stock has been very slowly trickling in. At one of the stores I collected click to order they had an extra one on the shelf for sale also. Let's just say it's not there any more.

I get the impression you beat me to it. Got my order cancelled. (Leeds)

My last two deliveries came with 36S5 and 39S5 both great condition.

My aim is to get 5 in total. Then I'll build one

Perhaps I'll stick with 4 and get a sandcrawler.

[Darth_Raichu]

1 hour ago, jaisonline said:

Back in the day, Lego included alternate pics in instructions. No steps though. 

Even my Kings Castle from 1984 had it

And on the back of some boxes.. Good times good times

[Basictoaster]

Anyone in the Nashua, NH area - ******** is showing 1 in stock at Target as of 11:00am EST @ $139.98.

Edited January 21, 2016 by Basictoaster
1st post!

[Rimmit]

2 hours ago, rshafer23 said:

Ok, so I'm brand new to Lego as an investment.  Up to this point I track deals simply for building myself. I'm not a huge Batman fan, but the opportunity on the Tumbler as an investment intrigues me.  However, simply considering supply vs. demand to determine the price once this thing is finally sold out how much is it really going to be worth?  I have been checking Amazon off and on daily for the past few weeks and the stock tracker here.  It seems that there are a LOT of Tumblers still trickling out and most seem to be going to those who are in for the investment rather than personal use.  Won't all this stock just drive the prices down on the market over the next few years?  Just trying to make sense of it all.  

Welcome to Lego Investing.  I have been in this game since the 1990's and my prime years were from about 2004-2007.  All I can tell you from all my years of collecting and ebaying is that there is no guarantee, but the large lego sets are the closest thing to a guarantee as you can get.  While not every Large set is a home run, you are pretty much guaranteed to NOT lose money, which is more than you could say than any other investment.  Legovesting has become increasingly popular in the last 3 years, making it more difficult to make money as fast, and Ebay fees and the post office are continuing to cut into profits heavily, but you can still make good money.  Just not as much and as fast as the mid 2000's.

There are many naysayers on this forum about the Tumbler and they have their reasons.  I personally believe this is as sure a bet as any due to the fact that despite what many people on this forum state, the interest for this set is VERY HIGH.  It has more reviews than almost any other UCS set that was out for only 16 months, and has been a consistent top seller on Amazon since it has been out.  While more interest drives more people to hoard, there is only so much supply out there, and this was hoarded less than many of the other sets out there.  While the extra couple hundred resellers that picked up the set to resell will cause this set to take longer to sell out at lower price points, once it does, it will rise higher than the average 200 dollar set.

Right now there are only 78 resellers for this item on Amazon.  That is much less than Red Five, DS or many other UCS level sets.  The set is already up to 300+shipping on Amazon which again is higher than Red Five or any other set retired in the last several months, and it's only been sold out a week, and there is even a small trickle of supply likely secondary to returns.  The set was only available for about 16 months before retirement which is about 8-12 months less than the average UCS Set, again decreasing supply.

People state Batman is not a "popular" commodity or as popular as Star Wars or Jurassic Park.  While it is not at the level of Star Wars, it is very high.  Batman has been popular in a tv format since the 60's and more popular in comics for lord knows how long.  Batman has had 7 and soon to be 8 movies made, and will continue to have movies made.  Batman will always be at the forefront of people's minds.  People state that the Nolan Batman trilogy's time has come and gone, and thus interest in the Tumbler will die.  Well look at the Delorean!!!  Hasn't had any reason to be on the forefront of people's minds in 20 years except it was the 30th anniversary recently and people are paying 150 for some dinky little car that doesn't even look like the real thing.  People state that no one will want to buy a Lego model of a car featured in only 2 Movies.  Again, I point to the Delorean.  The Millenium Falcon is only in 4 movies!  The Super Star Destroyer in just one.  The Nolan Trilogy is one of the definitive trilogies of the 2000's and is revered.  It was a box office monster.  The Heath Ledger Joker is one of the most legendary performances of all time.  Batman, and especially The Dark Knight is HIGHLY RELEVANT and POPULAR.  Especially among the crowd that can afford a 300 dollar lego set.

This set will do well.  How well is the only question. 

Lego investing is one of the safest investments out there because the number of Lego fans, unlike almost any other toy out there, will always continue to grow.  Lego is not a Fad.  It is not a beanie baby or a furby.  It is a time honored toy, in which a lego from 1950 will still interact with a lego from 2016 the same.  Lego never dates.  While building techniques improve, (just look at the early X wings and first Star Wars sets, which I bought all of them when they were first release in 1998) a Lego from 50 years ago still functions the same as a lego today.  With a constantly growing fan base, there is a constant stream of people who are becoming new to lego.  With a constant influx of new Lego fans, there is a constant stream of AFOL's.  Lego has always been a "higher" end toy as the prices for legos are higher than an average toy of the same size.  Because of this it is a toy that tends to skew more toward the "upper" and "upper middle" class.  Because of this, there are always children who grew up with Lego's that have a high likelihood of making a good salary.  This leads to more AFOL's who when they start earning those salaries want to capture the magic of their youth, and also share it with their children.  They then buy the sets they couldn't afford as a child, and then further the resale market.  For many of these people, they will pay whatever it takes to get what they want.

Lego is one of the most unique toys out there and it's ability to withstand depressions and stock market crashes makes it one of the safest investments out there.

Edited January 21, 2016 by Rimmit

[BRIX23]

14 minutes ago, Rimmit said:

Welcome to Lego Investing.  I have been in this game since the 1990's and my prime years were from about 2004-2007.  All I can tell you from all my years of collecting and ebaying is that there is no guarantee, but the large lego sets are the closest thing to a guarantee as you can get.  While not every Large set is a home run, you are pretty much guaranteed to NOT lose money, which is more than you could say than any other investment.  Legovesting has become increasingly popular in the last 3 years, making it more difficult to make money as fast, and Ebay fees and the post office are continuing to cut into profits heavily, but you can still make good money.  Just not as much and as fast as the mid 2000's.

There are many naysayers on this forum about the Tumbler and they have their reasons.  I personally believe this is as sure a bet as any due to the fact that despite what many people on this forum state, the interest for this set is VERY HIGH.  It has more reviews and has been a consistent top seller on Amazon since it has been out.  While more interest drives more people to hoard, there is only so much supply out there, and this was hoarded less than many of the other sets out there.  While the extra couple hundred resellers that picked up the set to resell will cause this set to take longer to sell out at lower price points, once it does, it will rise higher than the average 200 dollar set.

Right now there are only 78 resellers for this item on Amazon.  That is much less than Red Five, DS or many other UCS level sets.  The set is already up to 300+shipping on Amazon which again is higher than Red Five or any other set retired in the last several months, and it's only been sold out a week, and there is even a small trickle of supply likely secondary to returns.  The set was only available for about 16 months before retirement which is about 8-12 months less than the average UCS Set, again decreasing supply.

People state Batman is not a "popular" commodity or as popular as Star Wars or Jurassic Park.  I beg to differ on that.  Batman has been popular in a tv format since the 60's and more popular in comics for lord knows how long.  Batman has had 7 and soon to be 8 movies made, and will continue to have movies made.  Batman will always be at the forefront of people's minds.  People state that the Nolan Batman trilogy's time has come and gone, and thus interest in the Tumbler will die.  Well look at the Delorean!!!  Hasn't had any reason to be on the forefront of people's minds in 20 years except it was the 30th anniversary recently and people are paying 150 for some dinky little car that doesn't even look like the real thing.  People state that no one will want to buy a Lego model of a car featured in only 2 Movies.  Again, I point to the Delorean.  The Millenium Falcon is only in 4 movies!  The Super Star Destroyer in just one.  The Nolan Trilogy is one of the definitive trilogies of the 2000's and is revered.  It was a box office monster.  The Heath Ledger Joker is one of the most legendary performances of all time.  Batman, and especially The Dark Knight is HIGHLY RELEVANT and POPULAR.  Especially among the crowd that can afford a 300 dollar lego set.

This set will do well.  How well is the only question. 

Lego investing is one of the safest investments out there because the number of Lego fans, unlike almost any other toy out there, will always continue to grow.  Lego is not a Fad.  It is not a beanie baby or a furby.  It is a time honored toy, in which a lego from 1950 will still interact with a lego from 2016 the same.  Lego never dates.  While building techniques improve, (just look at the early X wings and first Star Wars sets, which I bought all of them when they were first release in 1998) a Lego from 50 years ago still functions the same as a lego today.  With a constantly growing fan base, there is a constant stream of people who are becoming new to lego.  With a constant influx of new Lego fans, there is a constant stream of AFOL's.  Lego has always been a "higher" end toy as the prices for legos are higher than an average toy of the same size.  Because of this it is a toy that tends to skew more toward the "upper" and "upper middle" class.  Because of this, there are always children who grew up with Lego's that have a high likelihood of making a good salary.  This leads to more AFOL's who when they start earning those salaries want to capture the magic of their youth, and also share it with their children.  They then buy the sets they couldn't afford as a child, and then further the resale market.  For many of these people, they will pay whatever it takes to get what they want.

Lego is one of the most unique toys out there and it's ability to withstand depressions and stock market crashes makes it one of the safest investments out there.

Wow!  Thanks Rimmit for the extensive response!  Good points about Batman being popular over so many years.  Appreciate the feedback from everyone and look forward to how this all turns out.  

[jaisonline]

53 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

And on the back of some boxes.. Good times good times

Yes. here's a pic (from google) of the 6080 king's castle's rear box.

[dcurve]

2 hours ago, rshafer23 said:

Achilles and dcurve thanks for the advice!  I actually had placed an Amazon order for it the other day, but chickened out and canceled it shortly after.  I've had a change of heart today and was able to get an Amazon order to finally go through on it so fingers crossed this is a good buy and hold option.  Thanks!

Of course, good luck to us all

 

[BarryZola]

1 hour ago, Metin said:

I get the impression you beat me to it. Got my order cancelled. (Leeds)

My last two deliveries came with 36S5 and 39S5 both great condition.

My aim is to get 5 in total. Then I'll build one

Perhaps I'll stick with 4 and get a sandcrawler.

Na, I'm Midlands based so got to a couple of local-ish stores that both luckily 'went click and collect' within an hour of each other yesterday. I'm up to 4 now (all from Smyths, 1 delivered mint and 3 from stores which are all mint) and want to get 5-6 maximum because of budget limitations. It's the only £100+ set I've got so far as I've only been buying for a couple of weeks and other expensive good buys either retired before I could get hold of them or will probably not be retiring for a while so I will wait a while until there are some good sales on and I've saved a bit more disposable income up.

[Sharkbait]

I have 4 right now (boxes are all in great condition, I wouldn't classify as mint because they were on shelves at local stores, but they aren't trampled).

One of my local Lego B&M still has Tumblers on their shelves. I'm wondering if I should try to pick up another one, or do you guys think 4 would be enough? I'm trying to also weigh the decision of buy another Tumbler for investment, or buy a 10231 Shuttle Expedition for $50 more for my personal collection.

 

[dcdfan]

9 minutes ago, Bags751 said:

do you guys think 4 would be enough?

enough for what...?

[CrabslayerT]

3 hours ago, dcdfan said:

 

 

enough for what...?

Book ends, maybe??