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76023 - The Tumbler


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Have you built 76023 The Tumbler?  

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  2. 2. Have you built 76023 The Tumbler?

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1 hour ago, Deanfjr said:

Yes I have been debating picking up a Slave I or Sand Crawler for investment purposes. I am more attracted to the Slave I. Besides the price It seems with Star Wars the market is flooded and the ships seem to do better than any land vehicles. Star Wars is hard guessing game. Take Ewok Village for example; going be good or bust?

Unless Ewoks somehow make it into one of the new films, I just don't think the Village set has the cache of something like the Mos Eisley Cantina to appreciate above Rrp. I lost count of how many times Solo's standoff with Guido, or Obi Wans interjection in Lukes argument has been replayed in recent StarWars best of programmes and the Cantina band is nearly as famous as the Beatles. Whereas I can't remember the last time I heard someone recount that great bit of the film in the Ewok village, in fact I can't even remember one myself, which should tell you all you need to know about its longevity.

 

Edited by neco
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2 hours ago, chipbee said:

I think this set will see a good initial jump, and 3 things can happen after the initial surge:

1.  Really demand dries up so price stagnate for a long time,

2.  A new batch of hoarders decided to join in the fun thinking that there is always a greater fool out there, or

3.  Really demand for tumbler is so great that this set becomes another folklore just like 10179.

My best guess is 1 is most likely outcome.

I agree that the price will definitely stagnate, like 300-350 for quite sometime as it will take a long time for the 5k-6k (just a wild guess, but 3k from target likely 3k that got hoarded from elsewhere at least) to sell through. 

In my mind because this set retired so fast, for the first year it is the reseller's that are basically LEGO Shop at Home and Amazon, and target, as we basically bought all their stock, and some will sell at 300 just to move inventory.  Once the non hardcore, non experienced, or just the investor looking for a small, but quick buck sell of their stock for minimal profit at 300-325, it can start to rise to levels not other sets could reach.  This will no doubt take a long time to rise, but I also feel like once you get past the first year or two, it has the potential to be a 600-700 dollar set by year 3-4, and maybe even settle at 1000 in 4-5, as it is an iconic vehicle, that many will want to buy, build and display.

So in essence, I believe 1 will definitely happen, but this set has more potential for 3 to happen than any other set in recent memory.  It could have taken off to the moon if it didn't take so long to sell out once the retiring soon label hit it.  This will definitely impact it's short term potential, but long term, it will do fine.

Edited by Rimmit
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I just received two of these from Target. The seals are all in tact, but each box has a crease from top to bottom in the middle of one side (front on one, back on the other) from where they threw these in an oversized box with one little strip of air packets in the center (which is what caused the creases). Other than the crease, the boxes are in good shape.

Should I hold on to these, or return them? I had planned to sell via FBA in a few years, but if I keep them I think I might have to go with eBay instead in order to accurately describe the box condition. I'm just not entirely sure how important box condition really is to people that will be buying these, as I assume most buyers will purchase with the intention of building to display... but you guys are the experts, so... thoughts?

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8 minutes ago, Serejai said:

I just received two of these from Target. The seals are all in tact, but each box has a crease from top to bottom in the middle of one side (front on one, back on the other) from where they threw these in an oversized box with one little strip of air packets in the center (which is what caused the creases). Other than the crease, the boxes are in good shape.

Should I hold on to these, or return them? I had planned to sell via FBA in a few years, but if I keep them I think I might have to go with eBay instead in order to accurately describe the box condition. I'm just not entirely sure how important box condition really is to people that will be buying these, as I assume most buyers will purchase with the intention of building to display... but you guys are the experts, so... thoughts?

Collectible - like new . Done . 

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9 minutes ago, Serejai said:

I just received two of these from Target. The seals are all in tact, but each box has a crease from top to bottom in the middle of one side (front on one, back on the other) from where they threw these in an oversized box with one little strip of air packets in the center (which is what caused the creases). Other than the crease, the boxes are in good shape.

Should I hold on to these, or return them? I had planned to sell via FBA in a few years, but if I keep them I think I might have to go with eBay instead in order to accurately describe the box condition. I'm just not entirely sure how important box condition really is to people that will be buying these, as I assume most buyers will purchase with the intention of building to display... but you guys are the experts, so... thoughts?

I personally would not have a problem selling them as new on FBA. I figure items I send in are going to get dinged up/creased on their trip to Amazon, being tossed around a few warehouses, and finally shipped out somewhere along the way. I have not had any issues selling creased lego sets on Amazon but maybe I am just lucky.

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1 hour ago, asharerin said:
1 hour ago, joch29 said:

well this has jumped to $300 on FBA....  

I think this set will surprise most on this board. 

The thousands in hands of resellers/investors/flippers from the last 2 weeks haven't hit Amazon's inventory yet. Once enough time has passed for everyone's Target/WM orders to arrive, get shipped off to FBA locations, processed, and fulfillable there will be a drop in price. There's only 73 offers/sellers on the original Amazon listing right now. That's the number to watch.

For reference, here's offer counts/sellers over the last year or so:

  • Oct 2014: 49 offers (this is when it was getting QFLL'd with the VIP release - buy box was $344.95)
  • mid-Dec 2014: 107 offers (everyone QFLL for Christmas - buy box was $302.99)
  • Feb 2015: 101 offers
  • Mar 2015: 107 offers
  • Jun 2015: 111 offers
  • Aug 2015: 115 offers
  • Oct 2015: 112 offers
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10 minutes ago, asharerin said:

Like I said most will be surprised. Let's revisit in one year, but in the meantime feel free to offer your inventory for $300 :)

Who are the most who will be surprised?  Most people seem to think this is 10179 part 2, and I'm gathering that you seem to think it will do well also.  It seems that the minority have lower expectations.

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Well, the set has been selling at a rate of 70+ per day for the last two weeks straight, so that's a minimum of about 1,000 sold in 2016 on Amazon so far. Before that it was selling at a rate of about 30 per day for the prior eight months, so... that's another 7,200+ sold on Amazon. Let's say there end up being 200 sellers on Amazon at peak... how many of these sets do people REALLY have? Because even if each of those 200 sellers had 10 sets on average, they would all be sold out within 2-3 months.

 

Of course, this is all speculative because there's no way to know how price increases will affect sales volume, and there's no way to tell how many of those sets sold on Amazon went to resellers vs consumers... but as someone who currently does about 3m/year in sales on Amazon, mostly in toys, and as someone who is brand new to investing in LEGO... this looks like a pretty safe investment to me.

Edited by Serejai
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10 minutes ago, Lordoflego said:

Pls explain asharerin, I agree with Mos_Eisley

Most do. IMO this set will appreciate quite quickly. 10179? No I would not expect that out of any Lego set going forward. Enjoy the Tumbler if you bought in cheap enough at $300 you should still be getting a nice return. 

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20 minutes ago, Mos_Eisley said:

Who are the most who will be surprised?  Most people seem to think this is 10179 part 2, and I'm gathering that you seem to think it will do well also.  It seems that the minority have lower expectations.

i will be one that would be surprised the most :)

my thinking was->is->

a. initial price $250->$315 { as soon as BB runs out } [ true so far ]

b. if the momentum is strong then we should see $375->$400 [before 02/28]

c. $437->$500 [01/2017-> 09/2017]

d. $656.7 ->$700 [12/2017->12->2018]

e. > $1000 probably [ after 2020 ]

now if demand with end consumer is really high (for this set) then we will see (c) and (d) very very fast. but i seriously doubt that would happen but again this one is up for grabs.

 

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7 minutes ago, Darth_Raichu said:

How many you have so far?

14 nice even number

I am a star wars fan first and foremost but the peer pressure on me from all sides has been strong

think I am done and will not be participating in f5

not too hot .... not too cold .... lol

Edited by trekgate502
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