Jeff Mack Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Quick question, when do the set prices get updated in the brickfolio?? I would like to know the current value of my sets, but it seems that the cost the system has are back from July....... Does anybody know? Thanks... The August and September data will be updated this week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinP Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Since the data has been updated recently, I was looking how my Brickfolio had been doing and I noticed some strange things. Some sets appeared to have a value of $0.00 when the had a different value last month. For example, the 30242 had a value of $7 last month and this month it has a value of $0.00. I was wondering if this is normal or not. There are also some other sets that so the same problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
comicblast Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Since the data has been updated recently. Celebrate!! Data is up! Thanks for updating it Super Mack Bros. My Brickfolio doesn't seem to have changed, but I know you have a lot on your plate, so don't sweat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest idunno101 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 The August and September data will be updated this week Thanks for the hard work that you're putting into this, it's appreciated Also on the Brickpicker home page the latest forum posts area keeps showing that all of them were posted under one second ago. It's just a minor thing but I thought I'd point it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 Since the data has been updated recently, I was looking how my Brickfolio had been doing and I noticed some strange things. Some sets appeared to have a value of $0.00 when the had a different value last month. For example, the 30242 had a value of $7 last month and this month it has a value of $0.00. I was wondering if this is normal or not. There are also some other sets that so the same problem.Jeff is working on it now. He has to rerun some data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheOrcKing Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I would guess the transfer from one server to the next is ongoing as some members image attachments are not viewable. Instead I get an empty frame with the notorious red X in the corner. Also on the Brickpicker home page the latest forum posts area keeps showing that all of them were posted under one second ago.Those are some really fast typers! :lol: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 I would guess the transfer from one server to the next is ongoing as some members image attachments are not viewable. Instead I get an empty frame with the notorious red X in the corner. Those are some really fast typers! Yes, the server conversion with the data update is tricky business, but Jeff is on the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheOrcKing Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Yes, the server conversion with the data update is tricky business, but Jeff is on the case.Yeah, working with code can be a real, um, 'female dog', but it's all good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNH1974 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Hi Jeff, Great that the data update has taken/is taking (delete applicable ). I have noticed that on some sets (well I have seen two) the months on the graphs have gone strange. Instead of the last year it shows Jun, Jun, Jun, Jul, Jul, Jul, Aug, Aug, Aug, Sep, Sep, Sep. I have seen it on http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=10230-1 and 9500. If you already know about this, ignore me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbaisfantastical Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Is there somewhere I can look through more than just the last 30 "Recent Sold Listings"? I have typically looked through these (especially when a set has dropped significantly) and have occasionally noticed values that shouldn't be included. However, with the inclusion of the other market data now, there are a lot less US listings to look through (e.***. 12-13 instead of 30 when it was US only). Have you thought of expanding this list beyond the last 30 or creating filters by currency? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbaisfantastical Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Thank you for the response. This makes sense to me that the shipping charges were taken out of the Brickpicker values. I suspected as much, but figured I ought to ask. I like the consistency between Brickpicker and Bricklink. I often compare the 2 sites on sets I'm really interested in, so it helps to understand that they treat shipping charges the same. I was looking through posts for comments on Shipping charges being excluded from BrickPicker values and was surprised to have not found more comments (unless there are comments in other forum topics). I was wondering what other users think about shipping being "excluded"...when in reality it is actually included for a good portion of listings with "free shipping" (these listings have higher values because the buyer paid more since shipping was baked into the final price). So how can anyone make sense of these prices if they are mix of shipping being paid and shipping being excluded?...Wouldn't it be more comparable to always include shipping because then the final price would always reflect what someone is willing to pay? This way the format of the listing (free shipping or not) does not artificially impact the values...that is, if a set sold for the exact same final price across 2 months, simply having more listings with free shipping (so more higher values are included in the BrickPicker calculations) in one month would artificially raise the avg. price even though consumers didn't pay a dime more. For a quick example, I looked at the last 11 listings for a New Orc Forge (9476). 3 listings (27%) included free shipping and sold for avg. $58.98. The other 8 paid for shipping and the value without shipping avg. $46.24. Combining these prices yields an avg. price of $49.71. If, for arguments sake, 6 of these listings included free shipping (instead of 3), the avg. value would be $53.19--so a 7% price increase just because the auction was listed as free shipping (when in reality the final values paid did not differ at all!). So basically month to month prices are influenced by the % of listings that included free shipping vs. not...wouldn't it be more comparable to always include shipping? I think this is also effecting the comparability to BrickLink as I have never received free shipping from BrickLink (not to say others have not, but I don't think it is as widespread as eBay), so that means BrickLink can more reliably state the values excluding shipping while using eBay data is not as reliable because so many listings include it for "free." Does that makes sense? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Mack Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Hi Jeff, Great that the data update has taken/is taking (delete applicable ). I have noticed that on some sets (well I have seen two) the months on the graphs have gone strange. Instead of the last year it shows Jun, Jun, Jun, Jul, Jul, Jul, Aug, Aug, Aug, Sep, Sep, Sep. I have seen it on http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=10230-1 and 9500. If you already know about this, ignore me The duplicate months should be gone now for some of those sets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
comicblast Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Hey Jeff. This is just something I noticed, and by NO means a top priority. I believe that the "Profile Views" tracker is no longer tracking. Not a big issue, but I thought I'd just bring it to your attention just in case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nir4life Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 This is weird.... And its only happening with 2 sets. 21105 and 21106. Everytime I try to add them to my brickfolio, it shows that the sets were added. And acutally looking at the brickfolio they are NOWHERE to be found!! Every other set i've added showed up! Weird! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbaisfantastical Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 I noticed there is no price yet for set 41999, there were a ton of sales in Aug and Sep... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Mack Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 I noticed there is no price yet for set 41999, there were a ton of sales in Aug and Sep...My fault on that one. The are showing up now:http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=41999-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbaisfantastical Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Great, thanks. After this correction was made, my least valuable set was refreshed to now be a sealed box of Series 10 CMF (71001-18) at $0 value. I had only recently added this item as I hadn't been aware the CMF series were an option on the site...when I look up other series I noticed none of them have any values though, so is this something new that you you guys are working on adding in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted October 12, 2013 Author Share Posted October 12, 2013 I was looking through posts for comments on Shipping charges being excluded from BrickPicker values and was surprised to have not found more comments (unless there are comments in other forum topics). I was wondering what other users think about shipping being "excluded"...when in reality it is actually included for a good portion of listings with "free shipping" (these listings have higher values because the buyer paid more since shipping was baked into the final price). So how can anyone make sense of these prices if they are mix of shipping being paid and shipping being excluded?...Wouldn't it be more comparable to always include shipping because then the final price would always reflect what someone is willing to pay? This way the format of the listing (free shipping or not) does not artificially impact the values...that is, if a set sold for the exact same final price across 2 months, simply having more listings with free shipping (so more higher values are included in the BrickPicker calculations) in one month would artificially raise the avg. price even though consumers didn't pay a dime more. For a quick example, I looked at the last 11 listings for a New Orc Forge (9476). 3 listings (27%) included free shipping and sold for avg. $58.98. The other 8 paid for shipping and the value without shipping avg. $46.24. Combining these prices yields an avg. price of $49.71. If, for arguments sake, 6 of these listings included free shipping (instead of 3), the avg. value would be $53.19--so a 7% price increase just because the auction was listed as free shipping (when in reality the final values paid did not differ at all!). So basically month to month prices are influenced by the % of listings that included free shipping vs. not...wouldn't it be more comparable to always include shipping? I think this is also effecting the comparability to BrickLink as I have never received free shipping from BrickLink (not to say others have not, but I don't think it is as widespread as eBay), so that means BrickLink can more reliably state the values excluding shipping while using eBay data is not as reliable because so many listings include it for "free." Does that makes sense?Shipping data will be available in a future upgrade on the site and it will probably be premium data. You cannot take 11 listings and make your assumption. There are tens of thousands of sold LEGO listings every month. We ran the free shipping vs. paid shipping numbers a year ago and there were more paid shipping auctions. There is too much room for outliers with shipping charges. What happens if people want to pay triple shipping charges for next day on a $10 set? Is that accurate? You would pay $30 shipping for a $10 item, thus making it a $40 auction result. Some other person could ship the same set for $8. See the issue with including shipping charges? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbaisfantastical Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Shipping data will be available in a future upgrade on the site and it will probably be premium data. You cannot take 11 listings and make your assumption. There are tens of thousands of sold LEGO listings every month. We ran the free shipping vs. paid shipping numbers a year ago and there were more paid shipping auctions. There is too much room for outliers with shipping charges. What happens if people want to pay triple shipping charges for next day on a $10 set? Is that accurate? You would pay $30 shipping for a $10 item, thus making it a $40 auction result. Some other person could ship the same set for $8. See the issue with including shipping charges? I am glad to hear that this information will be available and am really looking forward to all the great enhancements you guys are rolling out. I understand that 11 listings is small sample size and I was using this as a quick example for illustrative purposes; while there are indeed thousands of records in aggregate, keep in mind that I am referencing the impact on an individual set, which often has far fewer records used to calculate changes in pricing and are therefore more susceptible to be influenced by the mix of free vs. paid shipping. I wasn't aware you looked at this a year ago; every recent set listing I have looked at suggests there is a notably higher price paid with free shipping--was this not the case a year ago? Are there more free shipping listings nowadays so this is a more recent development? I have read some sellers prefer free shipping for the perceived benefits to the buyer and to eliminate the chances someone can give less stars for shipping charges since they are not available when free shipping--seems eBay is encouraging this behavior. I looked up another example from September sales on eBay--the DeathStar (10188) had 33 New US listings sold in Sep (I dropped a few records due to being outliers--not sure what your approach is but I excluded any values 2 standard deviations from the mean). I found 12 of the 33 listings had free shipping (36%, which is a higher rate than my other example) and those sales avg. $391. The other 21 auctions avg. $369 if I excluded the shipping charges. So the average value would be $377 by combining these 2 values. However, if the shipping charges are included for the 21 auctions, the total price paid for these auctions is $395 (nearly identical to the free shipping listings). This is where the methodology of excluding shipping doesn't make sense to me. The true price a consumer is paying is $393 for this set--they are doing so by either paying $391 for free shipping or paying $369 + $26 (avg. shipping for this heavy set)=$395. So how do I interpret a value of $377 when it is derived through combining free shipping listings plus those excluding shipping? Again, if the mix of free shipping changes month to month, than the value of the set can change simply due to the new mix. Extreme shipping cases would drop out with outlier cleaning if they truly are extreme (e.***. 3X the value of a set). Also, I don't think the norm is for people to next-day ship all that often on eBay (especially for a $10 set, but I am not a major seller so that is purely conjecture). Shipping includes the true price a consumer is willing to pay...and is something everyone on the site I'm sure pays close attention to with every purchase they make. I have passed on several "good" deals once I find out the shipping charges. Again, I am glad you are looking to include this option in the future...I was simply raising the issue to see if other members of the forum had similar questions as they try to interpret the values on some of their sets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Mack Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 This is weird.... And its only happening with 2 sets. 21105 and 21106. Everytime I try to add them to my brickfolio, it shows that the sets were added. And acutally looking at the brickfolio they are NOWHERE to be found!! Every other set i've added showed up! Weird! These sets should be showing up in your brickfolio now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted October 13, 2013 Author Share Posted October 13, 2013 I am glad to hear that this information will be available and am really looking forward to all the great enhancements you guys are rolling out. I understand that 11 listings is small sample size and I was using this as a quick example for illustrative purposes; while there are indeed thousands of records in aggregate, keep in mind that I am referencing the impact on an individual set, which often has far fewer records used to calculate changes in pricing and are therefore more susceptible to be influenced by the mix of free vs. paid shipping. I wasn't aware you looked at this a year ago; every recent set listing I have looked at suggests there is a notably higher price paid with free shipping--was this not the case a year ago? Are there more free shipping listings nowadays so this is a more recent development? I have read some sellers prefer free shipping for the perceived benefits to the buyer and to eliminate the chances someone can give less stars for shipping charges since they are not available when free shipping--seems eBay is encouraging this behavior. I looked up another example from September sales on eBay--the DeathStar (10188) had 33 New US listings sold in Sep (I dropped a few records due to being outliers--not sure what your approach is but I excluded any values 2 standard deviations from the mean). I found 12 of the 33 listings had free shipping (36%, which is a higher rate than my other example) and those sales avg. $391. The other 21 auctions avg. $369 if I excluded the shipping charges. So the average value would be $377 by combining these 2 values. However, if the shipping charges are included for the 21 auctions, the total price paid for these auctions is $395 (nearly identical to the free shipping listings). This is where the methodology of excluding shipping doesn't make sense to me. The true price a consumer is paying is $393 for this set--they are doing so by either paying $391 for free shipping or paying $369 + $26 (avg. shipping for this heavy set)=$395. So how do I interpret a value of $377 when it is derived through combining free shipping listings plus those excluding shipping? Again, if the mix of free shipping changes month to month, than the value of the set can change simply due to the new mix. Extreme shipping cases would drop out with outlier cleaning if they truly are extreme (e.g. 3X the value of a set). Also, I don't think the norm is for people to next-day ship all that often on eBay (especially for a $10 set, but I am not a major seller so that is purely conjecture). Shipping includes the true price a consumer is willing to pay...and is something everyone on the site I'm sure pays close attention to with every purchase they make. I have passed on several "good" deals once I find out the shipping charges. Again, I am glad you are looking to include this option in the future...I was simply raising the issue to see if other members of the forum had similar questions as they try to interpret the values on some of their sets. When we started this site two years ago, the shipping data was one of the most important dilemmas that we encountered. We will eventually have a premium member feature that gives a lot more information than what we provide now and shipping data will be part of it. There is such a wide range of options that can affect the prices that we thought it was best to leave them out. Another "hidden" price that needs to be looked at is state taxes. Some people pay them, some don't and all are different rates. So say for instance, I buy a $400 10188 Death Star from a seller in NJ. I live in NJ, so I would have to pay 7% NJ tax, or $28 on that purchase. If I bought that same set from a person in FL, I wouldn't have to. It gets very tricky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nir4life Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Thank You Jeff! This site is the best!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noodlenut Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Whenever I click on any comment from the "Recent Comments" list, it will not load properly. At the end of the URL, I found some text that reads: "?view=getnewpost" I found that if I delete this part, than it will load. I don't know if that's just my computer, or it other people are affected by it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbaisfantastical Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 When we started this site two years ago, the shipping data was one of the most important dilemmas that we encountered. We will eventually have a premium member feature that gives a lot more information than what we provide now and shipping data will be part of it. There is such a wide range of options that can affect the prices that we thought it was best to leave them out. Another "hidden" price that needs to be looked at is state taxes. Some people pay them, some don't and all are different rates. So say for instance, I buy a $400 10188 Death Star from a seller in NJ. I live in NJ, so I would have to pay 7% NJ tax, or $28 on that purchase. If I bought that same set from a person in FL, I wouldn't have to. It gets very tricky. I look forward to this feature and assume that I will have the ability to change all price guide values to always include shipping. I don't know enough about the data you get from eBay to understand how they handle taxes...I know that when I buy from a company on eBay like ToysRus, I am charged taxes because they operate in my state, so I would assume those taxes are shown in my final value paid amount. If there is an option to always calculate with the final value paid than I would favor this approach as that would be a consistent approach that can be applied across all listings to make them as comparable as possible. This is the point I was trying to make about shipping--ultimately I just care about the data being as comparable as possible. Frankly, I don't care if you exclude or include shipping as long as there is a consistent approach that makes the data comparable. Unfortunately, you cannot always exclude shipping because people offer free shipping quite frequently; however, you could always include it and make all of the auctions comparable (at least regarding shipping). This doesn't seem like a "premium" approach to me, just a change that should be made so we're not comparing apples and oranges in the values...but I'm likely just hung up on the issue (would love to know what other members think about this) and I'm sure there are some other angles I'm not thinking through....oh well, I look forward to the premium data rolling out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbaisfantastical Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 On a topic unrelated to shipping: I noticed on the "Averages" tab in the Pricing and Performance Information that some of the US values display as rounded integers and do not include decimal values. This seems odd as no other currency appears in this format (they all show decimal values). I have consistently noticed this in the Min Price (for both NEW and USED) and the Max Price for NEW (perhaps the Mode values as well, but I don't typically look at this). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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