Site Improvements & General FAQs

[Ed Mack]

Th only problem I see is generic modeling and evaluation.  if the CAGR as it sits today is not standardized (regardless of specific or individual basis) it becomes hard to use it as a valuation tool, for analysis and projection.  Very similar to CAPM in finance.  I believe that your tools and systems can become the standard for investment analysis of LEGO.  Many others have bought and sold, but no one has quantified the data as brick-picker has.  This would also position brick picker as the venue of first choice for this type of investment strategy.  Very similar to how CGC become the grading standard in comic books.  They set the standard and that is what people want, even though other grading services exist and in some cases are better, CGC still prevails.  First to market with a sound thought out product tend to rule the system, at least for a while.

If you can lay out some financial formulas and data that would be valuable to members so that we can incorporate it into the new Brickfolio, we will try to do so.  I will be the first to tell you that we know very little about stock market equations and standards that financial investors and pros use.  The CAGR was a member's idea and I think it gives people a fair way to evaluate sets, but there could be better ways.  

 

This offer goes to all of you financial gurus out there.  Tell us what you want to see and how to come up with the data.  With the new Brickfolio collecting bought and sold data from members, there are possible options that are unknown to Jeff and myself.  We are willing to learn and try, so here is your chance.  You can post ideas in this thread...

[waddamon]

If you can lay out some financial formulas and data that would be valuable to members so that we can incorporate it into the new Brickfolio, we will try to do so.  I will be the first to tell you that we know very little about stock market equations and standards that financial investors and pros use.  The CAGR was a member's idea and I think it gives people a fair way to evaluate sets, but there could be better ways.  

 

This offer goes to all of you financial gurus out there.  Tell us what you want to see and how to come up with the data.  With the new Brickfolio collecting bought and sold data from members, there are possible options that are unknown to Jeff and myself.  We are willing to learn and try, so here is your chance.  You can post ideas in this thread...

Will do.

[TheBrickMeister]

If you can lay out some financial formulas and data that would be valuable to members so that we can incorporate it into the new Brickfolio, we will try to do so. I will be the first to tell you that we know very little about stock market equations and standards that financial investors and pros use. The CAGR was a member's idea and I think it gives people a fair way to evaluate sets, but there could be better ways.

 

This offer goes to all of you financial gurus out there. Tell us what you want to see and how to come up with the data. With the new Brickfolio collecting bought and sold data from members, there are possible options that are unknown to Jeff and myself. We are willing to learn and try, so here is your chance. You can post ideas in this thread...

 

As I was the member that suggested the use of CAGR (compound annual growth rate), I feel I ought to chime in here. I'm not sure what waddamon is referring to saying the CAGR is not standardized and it's similar to the CAPM (capital asset pricing model). I don't feel they are similar at all. When you calculate CAGR for an investment, the result is a fact. When you calculate the CAPM for an investment, you are seeing the result of a model...it's an approximation and built on certain assumptions. I won't go into a detailed discussion on what CAPM is used for, but I do want to clarify why I think CAGR is useful and should continue to be used on this site. CAGR is basically your "smoothed annualized gain" over the investment period. It's useful because you can compare investments you've held for different timeframes. I'll give 2 examples to illustrate:

 

1. You hold an investment for 3 years and calculate the CAGR is 25% at the end of that timeframe. This means your AVERAGE annual growth was 25%. The total growth would be 95.3% (1.25 x 1.25 x 1.25), since we are talking about a compounded growth rate (the 25% each year builds on the the previous year in this example).

2. You hold an investment for 3 months and calculate the CAGR is 25% at the end of that timeframe. Again, it's showing you your average ANNUAL growth rate is 25%. In other words, if the investment continues to gain value at the same rate, at the end of 1 year you will be at a 25% gain.

 

Now to my practical suggestion for the site: I think the CAGR should be used in the Brickfolio for each set, but the calculation needs to be based on the date a set was purchased. The CAGR seen on an individual set's page is based on the year that set was released, which is fine for a standard number for each set, but it should be calculated differently for the Brickfolio.

 

My sources: Investopedia and Finance major in college

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp

[Ed Mack]

 

As I was the member that suggested the use of CAGR (compound annual growth rate), I feel I ought to chime in here. I'm not sure what waddamon is referring to saying the CAGR is not standardized and it's similar to the CAPM (capital asset pricing model). I don't feel they are similar at all. When you calculate CAGR for an investment, the result is a fact. When you calculate the CAPM for an investment, you are seeing the result of a model...it's an approximation and built on certain assumptions. I won't go into a detailed discussion on what CAPM is used for, but I do want to clarify why I think CAGR is useful and should continue to be used on this site. CAGR is basically your "smoothed annualized gain" over the investment period. It's useful because you can compare investments you've held for different timeframes. I'll give 2 examples to illustrate:

 

1. You hold an investment for 3 years and calculate the CAGR is 25% at the end of that timeframe. This means your AVERAGE annual growth was 25%. The total growth would be 95.3% (1.25 x 1.25 x 1.25), since we are talking about a compounded growth rate (the 25% each year builds on the the previous year in this example).

2. You hold an investment for 3 months and calculate the CAGR is 25% at the end of that timeframe. Again, it's showing you your average ANNUAL growth rate is 25%. In other words, if the investment continues to gain value at the same rate, at the end of 1 year you will be at a 25% gain.

 

Now to my practical suggestion for the site: I think the CAGR should be used in the Brickfolio for each set, but the calculation needs to be based on the date a set was purchased. The CAGR seen on an individual set's page is based on the year that set was released, which is fine for a standard number for each set, but it should be calculated differently for the Brickfolio.

 

My sources: Investopedia and Finance major in college

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp

Yes...Your idea of the CAGR was a great one and there is no intention on removing it.  I would like to personally thank you for the time you spent with Jeff and I to implement your idea.  My question to experienced professionals like yourself is with Jeff working on the new Brickfolio and the new data inputs, are there other financial equations or tools that could be useful as well?  We could add many options, as long as they are worthwhile.  Thanks for your input...again.  

[Ciglione]

Yes...Your idea of the CAGR was a great one and there is no intention on removing it.  I would like to personally thank you for the time you spent with Jeff and I to implement your idea.  My question to experienced professionals like yourself is with Jeff working on the new Brickfolio and the new data inputs, are there other financial equations or tools that could be useful as well?  We could add many options, as long as they are worthwhile.  Thanks for your input...again.  

 

A while ago... I saw people debating about the option to add selling information to the brickfolio. Is this off the table now? Or is it still in the brainstorming session?  

[chinchy]

There seems to be a broken link in the Superheroes forum:

 

http://community.brickpicker.com/topic/10644-superman-vs%C2%A0power-armor-lex-6862-a-good-buy-1500/

[Ed Mack]

A while ago... I saw people debating about the option to add selling information to the brickfolio. Is this off the table now? Or is it still in the brainstorming session?  

Give me an example...

[exciter1]

Give me an example...

 

Sold Date

Sold Price

[Ed Mack]

Sold Date

Sold Price

Yes, that will be included as with the "bought date/price."

[gorbasho]

The Brick Trader section does not appear to resize avatars, as seen by humongous Kenny here:

http://community.brickpicker.com/classifieds/item/15-wanted-lego-shipping-cartons/

 

I can resize and use a small one if you'd like, just wanted to inform you of the issue.

[No More Monkeys]

Yes, that will be included as with the "bought date/price."

Does it mean there will be different views of the portfolio? i.e. one for current inventory and one for already sold? Or you are imagining it to be rather similar to "Orders & Positions" stock trading view, where not yet sold sets value shows up as "unrealized profit/loss" ?

[Jeff Mack]

There seems to be a broken link in the Superheroes forum:

 

http://community.brickpicker.com/topic/10644-superman-vs power-armor-lex-6862-a-good-buy-1500/

 

Fixed

 

The Brick Trader section does not appear to resize avatars, as seen by humongous Kenny here:

http://community.brickpicker.com/classifieds/item/15-wanted-lego-shipping-cartons/

 

I can resize and use a small one if you'd like, just wanted to inform you of the issue.

 

Fixed

[exciter1]

Jeff,

 

While you're at it, these two sets don't have price information for them in the Brickfolio.

 

30228
75035

 

Thanks!

[Ed Mack]

Does it mean there will be different views of the portfolio? i.e. one for current inventory and one for already sold? Or you are imagining it to be rather similar to "Orders & Positions" stock trading view, where not yet sold sets value shows up as "unrealized profit/loss" ?

I would imagine we could have different options.  That is why I ask you "stock people" to chime in.  Explain and give us examples.  If a few different views make sense and Jeff can make it happen, I don't see why not.  But as I said, this is a discussion that needs to take place here, between knowledgeable members, so we can implement it and figure out what works best for most members.

[Jeff Mack]

In the end, what I really need are examples.  Please email me at [email protected] with any Excel files (WITH FORMULAS), images, examples of what things should like like, how they work, how it can transition to LEGO if it needs to be tweaked compared to the stock market or other financial formulas.

[comicblast]

Jeff,

 

While you're at it, these two sets don't have price information for them in the Brickfolio.

 

30228

75035

 

Thanks!

I can do that for you. If you have any other problems that can be fixed in the Add/Edit Set Data section, I'll be happy to help. Just PM me or somethin'.

 

Note: Technically you can do that on your own, and have it verified by Jeff.

 

Actually, 30228 was a promo set. I'll enter in the other info, like dimensions, etc. I'll also fill in the info for 75035.

 

Edit #2: Now I realize you are referring to the Brickfolio. Sorry 'bout that.

Edited July 8, 2014 by comicblast

[waddamon]

As I was the member that suggested the use of CAGR (compound annual growth rate), I feel I ought to chime in here. I'm not sure what waddamon is referring to saying the CAGR is not standardized and it's similar to the CAPM (capital asset pricing model). I don't feel they are similar at all. When you calculate CAGR for an investment, the result is a fact. When you calculate the CAPM for an investment, you are seeing the result of a model...it's an approximation and built on certain assumptions. I won't go into a detailed discussion on what CAPM is used for, but I do want to clarify why I think CAGR is useful and should continue to be used on this site. CAGR is basically your "smoothed annualized gain" over the investment period. It's useful because you can compare investments you've held for different timeframes. I'll give 2 examples to illustrate:

 

1. You hold an investment for 3 years and calculate the CAGR is 25% at the end of that timeframe. This means your AVERAGE annual growth was 25%. The total growth would be 95.3% (1.25 x 1.25 x 1.25), since we are talking about a compounded growth rate (the 25% each year builds on the the previous year in this example).

2. You hold an investment for 3 months and calculate the CAGR is 25% at the end of that timeframe. Again, it's showing you your average ANNUAL growth rate is 25%. In other words, if the investment continues to gain value at the same rate, at the end of 1 year you will be at a 25% gain.

 

Now to my practical suggestion for the site: I think the CAGR should be used in the Brickfolio for each set, but the calculation needs to be based on the date a set was purchased. The CAGR seen on an individual set's page is based on the year that set was released, which is fine for a standard number for each set, but it should be calculated differently for the Brickfolio.

 

My sources: Investopedia and Finance major in college

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp

My friend I never said it was similar to CAPM, I said we need a standardized system as in why/how CAPM is used.  The point was that in building a price guide (the first of it's kind) using a standardized data set will create consistency and continuity to the platform.  It makes it legitimate.  An individuals personal rate of return is irrelevant to me in determining price of said asset and expected return.  I have to be able to organize the data in a fashion that will allow me to model expectations etc.  CAPM can be used to arrive at what an asset is worth taking into account cash flows etc.  That is not similar here in exactness.  It reflects a fundamental basis for evaluating an asset, vs. someone saying "here is how much it is worth".  In looking at a portfolio I have a different rate of return for every client unless every client entered their positions at the same time and price.  I believe CAGR being computed from the event of Manufacturing conclusion is important for modeling.  A set has no ROR in reality if it is still available and can be bought and sold at retail through retail channels.  The price guide is irrelevant as well since that same set can be purchased at retail or with coupons points etc.  Thus to me a CAGR formula makes the most sense when said LEGO set is retired at LEGO themselves.  This is when a price guide becomes valuable.  I would think that until retirement the value of a set for investment purposes is the retail price as that is the most widely available data set for that particular "Set".  If someone can get it for less and sell it for more, then their own individual return would be far different and reflected in a realized return calculation/chart/report for their own portfolio,  Right now the brick folio tracks an inventory not so much a portfolio,  Very usefull, fantastic for a holistic evaluation, but not a portfolio/investment evaluator.  The reason I bring any of this up is that this site and the tools herein can become the premier guide for evaluating retired LEGO prices.

 

The death star 10188 is a great example in that if one holds that set at retail for 6 years they have an effective return of zero.  Ignoring the time value of money as that is speculative to the variables induced to arrive at discount rates etc.  Should someone want to determine the viability of it as an investment it is worth 399.95.  Once it retires the values of it moves it away from a total ROR and can be computed using a CAGR formula of some kind as the primary market is now the secondary market (ebay, amazon etc.)  The person who purchased it 6 years ago would have a substantially lower total return one year after retirement than the  person who purchased it the year before EOL.  In either scenario the CAGR of the set/theme etc. would be the same, and thus quantifiable to future (death star type sets) if  the CAGR was based on EOL date.

This reply is starting to get long. So I will leave it at that.  I will attempt to organize my thoughts and shoot it over to JEFF/ED in the coming weeks.

[TheBrickMeister]

The person who purchased it 6 years ago would have a substantially lower total return one year after retirement than the  person who purchased it the year before EOL.  In either scenario the CAGR of the set/theme etc. would be the same, and thus quantifiable to future (death star type sets) if  the CAGR was based on EOL date.

 

I think I follow what you are saying. In response to the quoted section I included above, I think each set in an individual's Brickfolio could benefit from having a CAGR associated with it, which would be based on the purchase date/price the individual bought that set.

[waddamon]

Jeff can you check the data on 10175? It seems quite a bit off, but maybe I am missing something.

[Jeff Mack]

Jeff can you check the data on 10175? It seems quite a bit off, but maybe I am missing something.

 

What seems so off about it?  

 

Everyone, Please send me a PM for these types of questions.

 

**EDIT**

Ignore the comment/question about 10175.  waddamon forgot to check the 'sold listings only' box on ebay, so only new current listings were being viewed.  Price guide looks fine.

[glenbart]

I thing CAGR works well. The cons are really you have to wait a full year after eol to see what the value is, in the meantime your only really interested how much in percentage your Initial purchase has grown. The big pro of the CAGR is down the line, when, you can see how many times retail it has climbed or maybe not at all. But I think the best use of the CAGR is when you look at it for a whole theme, if star wars theme had a CAGR of 20% and City 10%, then you know what to expect. I think many new investors pass up on this information and think its all about the % off when purchased.

[speedsausage]

For some reason I'm not receiving any push notifications on my iPhone. I did change some things in my profile about notifications but on my phone itself everything is turned on and still nothing???

[gorbasho]

I'm having the same problem, no notifications since yesterday. Haven't made any recent changes to my phone or profile

[speedsausage]

I did start getting them again about 24hrs after I noticed I wasn't getting notifications. I know that doesn't help you but the problem seemed to correct itself.

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

Try killing the program in the background and restarting. mess with the settings for them. I had to do that to get them to stop.