2015 - Set List

[MartinP]

The Wookie gunship and Batman + Super Angry Kitty sets look great.  Bionicle had an awesome storyline and I was sad to see it go.  It will be interesting to see how they bring it back.  As an aside, are there going to be any further LotR (not Hobbit) releases?

It doesn't look like that there will be anymore LotR sets released.

[GhostDad]

It doesn't look like that there will be anymore LotR sets released.

From what I've read, I think this is probably correct.  It makes me wonder if Tower of Orthanc is long for this world...

[spener90]

From what I've read, I think this is probably correct.  It makes me wonder if Tower of Orthanc is long for this world...

I think Tower of Orthanc could be like the Haunted House? Sticks around a year after everything else is gone? Would make sense for them to do, and I think it would help those who invested in other Lord of the Rings sets too, so customers will see one still at retail and want all of the retired ones too (am I being too positive?).

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

I think Tower of Orthanc could be like the Haunted House? Sticks around a year after everything else is gone? Would make sense for them to do, and I think it would help those who invested in other Lord of the Rings sets too, so customers will see one still at retail and want all of the retired ones too (am I being too positive?).

 

Or more. Although I think it may go a little sooner because its not something that comes around every year like Halloween.

[GhostDad]

Maybe.  I've been trying to get excited about Tower of Orthanc.  But the price/piece and price/weight (using brickpicker.com stats) are both very mediocre when compared with something like a modular building, Tower Bridge, or DS.  Also, the already retired LotR (and even less so Hobbit) sets have not done particularly well.  It seems like Lego's 2 per customer limit on the ToO might be a positive sign, but they had Helm's Deep at limit 1 for most of last year and it's still barely 25% above retail on eBay.

[MartinP]

Maybe.  I've been trying to get excited about Tower of Orthanc.  But the price/piece and price/weight (using brickpicker.com stats) are both very mediocre when compared with something like a modular building, Tower Bridge, or DS.  Also, the already retired LotR (and even less so Hobbit) sets have not done particularly well.  It seems like Lego's 2 per customer limit on the ToO might be a positive sign, but they had Helm's Deep at limit 1 for most of last year and it's still barely 25% above retail on eBay.

When most of the LotR and Hobbit sets were available, I feel that most people were saying they would be great investments, but now after seeing their performance after a while, they may not be doing as well as some people expected. I agree that the price/piece and price/weight for the ToO is not the best compared to others, but it is a display piece and many LotR fans will want one if they don't have one. It has potential, but it is only a year old and it should be available to at least next year.

[chinothegeeko]

I thought Orthanc was all based off of how long Lego has the license for?

[TheOrcKing]

Some more Star Wars sets have been added to the list including next year's Microfighters series which features an AT-AT.

via The Brick Fan

[Guest eightbrick]

Looking forward to the T-16. Haven't bought a SW set in the longest time but I've always had a sweet spot for that ship. Appreciate the list as always TOK 

[TheOrcKing]

Looking forward to the T-16. Haven't bought a SW set in the longest time but I've always had a sweet spot for that ship. Appreciate the list as always TOK

Thank you. I missed out on the original T-16 Skyhopper somehow so I am definitely curious how this newer iteration will turn out. Judging by current techniques and general pricing of Star Wars sets, I imagine it featuring twice as many parts and retailing for $25. Anyway, here is an image of the actual spacecraft. Hmm....this may be closer to a $35-$50 set to capture all those lines and details. The cockpit will be interesting to see accomplished.

 

[TheOrcKing]

After some browsing, I came across this very nice MOC of the T-16 Skyhopper. While it isn't official, it could give an idea as to what the new set may look like.

 

http://www.flickr.com/photos/29748559@N02/sets/72157627635998405/

[MartinP]

I like that there will be some new versions of sets like the AAT and T-16 Skyhopper. I once built a T-16 using pieces from the 6211 ISD, and using instructions that I found online. I'm looking forward to seeing how the new T-16 will look like.

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

Maybe.  I've been trying to get excited about Tower of Orthanc.  But the price/piece and price/weight (using brickpicker.com stats) are both very mediocre when compared with something like a modular building, Tower Bridge, or DS.  Also, the already retired LotR (and even less so Hobbit) sets have not done particularly well.  It seems like Lego's 2 per customer limit on the ToO might be a positive sign, but they had Helm's Deep at limit 1 for most of last year and it's still barely 25% above retail on eBay.

 

Have you seen it built? Its intimidating, imposing. Just beautiful. I think it will do well because of that. I may have peed a little when I saw it.

[GhostDad]

Have you seen it built? Its intimidating, imposing. Just beautiful. I think it will do well because of that. I may have peed a little when I saw it.

No, but I think you're right about its being an attractive display piece.  I've just been disappointed in how the LotR sets have done post-EOL to date.  Orthanc is the most attractive of them, but I think there are better options available.  Basically, Orthanc has a similar price/weight (I've been thinking this is a more useful metric than price/piece) to the SSD (for example), but its theme has much less of a track record than Star Wars.  The modular buildings all have a much better (lower) price/weight ratio than Orthanc, and that theme has a great track record.  The Death Star also has a much better price/weight ratio than Orthanc, and two dozen minifigures.  Anyway, I'm thinking the correct quantity of Orthanc (for investment purposes) would be maybe 1/2 what one would allocate to a set like GE or DS.

[exciter1]

Some more Star Wars sets have been added to the list including next year's Microfighters series which features an AT-AT.

via The Brick Fan

 

My son will be excited about the AAT.

[waddamon]

Orthanc has always been a limit of two, from the beginning.  It is awesome for display and play.  I think it will be under invested and I am glad of that, as I will have a stack.  Also it is tied to a license,and that license is LOTR not HOBBIT.  Two different licenses.

[biniou]

Have you seen it built? Its intimidating, imposing. Just beautiful. I think it will do well because of that. I may have peed a little when I saw it.

You bet!

 

 

Do not invest in guys.

Please don't.

We'll have a drink with your tears in a couple of years.

 

(limit of 5 in europe BTW)

[GhostDad]

Orthanc has always been a limit of two, from the beginning.  It is awesome for display and play.  I think it will be under invested and I am glad of that, as I will have a stack.  Also it is tied to a license,and that license is LOTR not HOBBIT.  Two different licenses.

I understand the difference between the licenses.  But the LotR sets have not done particularly well.  All I'm saying is it's hard for ToO to compete with something like GE or DS on pretty much any investing metric.

[Guest eightbrick]

http://brickset.com/article/12057/images-of-minifig-scale-minecraft-sets

[citymorgue]

Does anyone have any possible info on next year's technic sets? Or is it still way to early for any info? I'm already itching to see what next year's big set is.

[waddamon]

I understand the difference between the licenses.  But the LotR sets have not done particularly well.  All I'm saying is it's hard for ToO to compete with something like GE or DS on pretty much any investing metric.

9470 Shelob Attacks retired Nov 2013, 9 months since EOL Appreciated from RRP 19.99 +95.09%

9471 Urukai Army retired Nov 2013, 9 months since EOL Appreciated from RRP 29.99 +103.63%

9472 Weathertop retired Feb 2013, 18 months since EOL Apprecited from RRP +1.80%

9473 Moria retired Nov 2013, 9 months since EOL depreciated from RRP -9.51%

9474 Helms Deep Retired NOv 2013, 9 months since EOL appreciated + 34.33%

 

I would say that as a theme from 19.99 and up they have done just fine, in fact in line with any general theme that not all are big winners or winners at all.  I have 4 times the Helms deep than I do Moria.  It may catch up later, who knows.  So, since TOO is the biggest, baddest, best made set of the theme an exclusive and limited at 2 per on Lego website the entire time it has been available I expect it will do just fine.  I would venture It will appreciate the first 4 years of retirement at about 35% per year based on the above data, giving it an end price in 2019 of around $664.00, measuring in a straight line.    There will never be another set like it.  If my investment portfolio looked like the above after 9 months, my clients would be showering me with gifts.  Everyone has different expectations though, so it may not be a good enough theme return for some, it is for me.  That being said I may exit the sub-performers in another year if they do not turn around.  In the case of all of the above sets mine and most other peoples "basis" is lower than RRP so the total return would be even better, even on the under performers.

[GhostDad]

9470 Shelob Attacks retired Nov 2013, 9 months since EOL Appreciated from RRP 19.99 +95.09%

9471 Urukai Army retired Nov 2013, 9 months since EOL Appreciated from RRP 29.99 +103.63%

9472 Weathertop retired Feb 2013, 18 months since EOL Apprecited from RRP +1.80%

9473 Moria retired Nov 2013, 9 months since EOL depreciated from RRP -9.51%

9474 Helms Deep Retired NOv 2013, 9 months since EOL appreciated + 34.33%

 

I would say that as a theme from 19.99 and up they have done just fine, in fact in line with any general theme that not all are big winners or winners at all.  I have 4 times the Helms deep than I do Moria.  It may catch up later, who knows.  So, since TOO is the biggest, baddest, best made set of the theme an exclusive and limited at 2 per on Lego website the entire time it has been available I expect it will do just fine.  I would venture It will appreciate the first 4 years of retirement at about 35% per year based on the above data, giving it an end price in 2019 of around $664.00, measuring in a straight line.    There will never be another set like it.  If my investment portfolio looked like the above after 9 months, my clients would be showering me with gifts.  Everyone has different expectations though, so it may not be a good enough theme return for some, it is for me.  That being said I may exit the sub-performers in another year if they do not turn around.  In the case of all of the above sets mine and most other peoples "basis" is lower than RRP so the total return would be even better, even on the under performers.

That's fair.  I think the problem (for me at least) is that the best performers in terms of ROI have been the smallest sets.  In fact, that's a pretty clear trend from looking at the data you posted.  What I had in mind when I said that LotR had not met my expectations is that the larger sets have underperformed exclusives in their percentage returns.  Moria and Weathertop have simply been awful, but even Helm's Deep is mediocre for a set whose MSRP puts it in the range of FB or GE.  HD was available at a reasonable discount at the very end of its life, for a few days from Target and TRU, but most folks probably paid more like $115 - $120 for it, especially after taxes.  The Army was the real investment winner of the bunch, and that was perhaps predictable (with all those Orc minifigs), but when you compare the theme as a whole to proven winners like Super Heroes or Exclusives it's not real impressive.  Unlike owning, say, 1,000 shares of Shelob Attacks stock at $19.99 each, that you could then sell all at once with a single mouse click, trying to unload those sets one by one, packing and shipping each box, and with eBay/Amazon taking 10 - 15% off the top is a lot more work for a relatively small profit per transaction.  Lego sets need to very significantly outperform stocks or bonds in ROI to compensate for the vastly higher transaction costs, physical storage space requirements, and investor's time involved in the selling process.

[MartinP]

Does anyone have any possible info on next year's technic sets? Or is it still way to early for any info? I'm already itching to see what next year's big set is.

Way to early for info about Technic sets. Lego usually releases the larger Technic sets on August 1^st. We will probably see some info on the smaller sets sooner, but it will probably be a while until we get any info about a larger set.

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

Man I can't even think about the next years Technic sets because I am still drooling over this years. I seriously want every single one of them really bad.

[citymorgue]

Man I can't even think about the next years Technic sets because I am still drooling over this years. I seriously want every single one of them really bad.

I already have the Volvo and the cargo plane. I kind of went over board the last couple of months and dropped serious cash catching up on a lot of sets. And im itching to build more lol.