Things that are easier to predict than LEGO set retirement

[glenbart]

If you go onto the Brickset website, look up a retired set, it will tell you the date it wad first available in your country and other countries and when it was retired. The information is fairly accurate. You will find most sets fall between 18 & 24 months. Smaller sets generally go first, many sets will retire around November, with some gone by October and some in December, what ever is left will go in the Christmas Lego shop sale and most are cleared out by January. As captain America did last year it was sold out by September and the batcave December. Retailers will stock for Christmas early, but for a set that had already been out a year and a half or so it is unlikely they will restock past October, "once they are gone they are gone". " one wave enters, one wave leaves".

Big exclusives, well you never know how long, neither do Lego, if it's a good seller like the death star, high priced, good profit margin, Lego will keep it going till sales start to trickle out, it could around another 5 years, who knows, eventually it will get a bit dated and Lego will phase it out, I see that coming before it is retired due to slow sales.

On the other hand, UCS b-wing, not a great seller so gone in a year. In some respects if you do want to concentrate on these big sets, it may be better just to save your cash in the bank and then when the set is looking eol imminent go out and buy them, look to see how many you can get from Lego and other retailers. This may be better than buying before hand as you could find the investment no improving for 1-2 or more years. In that time you may of had the opportunity to buy normal sets and rock bottom prices and have that set retire. But time is not always on a Lego investors side and sets can dissappear overnight, which is why most investors will simply buy what they can each month. At this time of year, well since jan/feb we haven't seen many sets retire and we will not start to see may retire untill the autumn.

For the sake of sticking my neck out, I think we will see at least 1 modular, 1 star wars UCS, possibly camper van & camel gone by the end of the year/jan 2015, but it really does come down to Lego's sales.

I think superheroes wave 2 wil start to go October and be gone by January, it is possible like last year some of these sets can be sold at christmas. Star wars sets tend to hang around longer or shorter. Desert skiff and Jabba palace only around for 17 months or so from lego, palace is still available from retailers but not many

Left now and gone by the end of summer. But many star wars sets you have a better chance of getting at exact time of eol.

A little lego history, back in the 70's to 90's, legosets would only e around a year or so, but the popular ones would get re-released in the next year or 2, that is what some sets have -1 as part of the number, eg, 375-1. So you know with Lego that a sets shelf life is all about sales generated.

So to summarise, to have an idea of when a set is to eol, look to the past, it doesn't change much, popular sets will be around longer but will equally go quick when they are no longer made. Look at how sales go in your country as it varies.

[jaisonline]

The reasons behind when my wife is mad.

[holleman67]

The reasons behind when my wife is mad.

I think eol dates are easier to predict for me haha