Biggest Losers - Class of 2014

[Mathew]

I like the Sandcrawler but it's about $50 overpriced at RRP for it's size and minifig count (I'm not one to believe in price per piece).

 

The best bet out of the Lego Movie theme is by far Benny's Spaceship.  It's universally loved by fans of the movie and classic space.  If it's gone by December then it will easily double RRP within six months.  

[IMDeus]

I think a lot depends on when they retire for 1-4 obviously. People might not be interested but let's just watch that change if they were retired early. That's a game changer.

[fuzzy_bricks]

I like the Sandcrawler but it's about $50 overpriced at RRP for it's size and minifig count (I'm not one to believe in price per piece).

 

The best bet out of the Lego Movie theme is by far Benny's Spaceship.  It's universally loved by fans of the movie and classic space.  If it's gone by December then it will easily double RRP within six months.  

While I'm in the minority, when I first saw Benny's Spaceship, I was unimpressed.  It looked like the old space space line and something I used to slap together.  I understand the nostalgia factor, but somethings are better today than they used to be and Lego designs are one of them, IMO.

I have since warmed up to it, but not because it reminds me of the spaceships I used to build.  That may change if I actually lay my hands on it.

[jaisonline]

it's amazing how fast people forgot how 10144 performed up until this Jan / Feb when the refresh was announced.  ...and 75059 is a far better set.  no prob.  more for me to buy when it's near EOL with less competition.  now let's just hope it doesn't hang around for 3+ years

 

 

i was down on 75059.  then i saw it in-person.  then i built it.  then i watched my son play with it.  awesome.

[naf]

 

i was down on 75059.  then i saw it in-person.  then i built it.  then i watched my son play with it.  awesome.

 

Honestly, this might be me with the Sea Cow.  My stepson has been asking for it ever since he saw it in the Lego catalog.  If we decide to get it for him for christmas this year I'll be able to better evaluate it after helping him build it.

[jaisonline]

Honestly, this might be me with the Sea Cow.  My stepson has been asking for it ever since he saw it in the Lego catalog.  If we decide to get it for him for christmas this year I'll be able to better evaluate it after helping him build it.

 

another excellent point. 

 

i just don't see how people could list possible 2014 disappointments with some sort of hands on experience.

[naf]

another excellent point. 

 

i just don't see how people could list possible 2014 disappointments with some sort of hands on experience.

 

Like Colbert, I go with my gut!

[jaisonline]

Like Colbert, I go with my gut!

 

when it comes to lego investing, going with the gut is good advice 99% of the time.

[lobo1969]

  It looked like the old space space line and something I used to slap together. 

I believe this is exactly what LEGO was going for with Benny's spaceship. A potential model of something a 10 year old would have 'slapped' together back in the day!

[Ed Mack]

I believe this is exactly what LEGO was going for with Benny's spaceship. A potential model of something a 10 year old would have 'slapped' together back in the day!

Right.  They wanted to connect with old farts like me who did build Benny's Spaceship 30 years ago.

[Ed Mack]

it's amazing how fast people forgot how 10144 performed up until this Jan / Feb when the refresh was announced.  ...and 75059 is a far better set.  no prob.  more for me to buy when it's near EOL with less competition.  now let's just hope it doesn't hang around for 3+ years

 

 

i was down on 75059.  then i saw it in-person.  then i built it.  then i watched my son play with it.  awesome.

I don't think people dislike the new Sandcrawler, they are slightly disappointed.  It could have been done better IMO.  I would rather have had a $400 Sandcrawler, with more minifigures and an improved build, than a $300 slightly improved version that is passed off as a UCS set.  Regardless, it will appreciate well, but I don't see it in the same league as many UCS sets.

[gregpj]

Right.  They wanted to connect with old farts like me who did build Benny's Spaceship 30 years ago.

 

I've built it... it's nothing like the ones I slapped together 30 years ago. It's a more challenging build and WAAAAY bigger. The only piece I wish they would have included are these:

 

http://www.bricklink.com/catalogItem.asp?P=4737

 

I personally believe Benny's spaceship will easily double in value after EOL. Great minifigs, a great build, great nostalgia in theme and parts and it's huge for the piece count.

[Frank Brickowski]

Howabout some new talking points!!!

 

So Ill jump in with the OP with some of my pics for worst performing sets of the ones that have come or will come out in 2014:

 

1. 70724 - Ninjago Copter: I liked this set when it came out. However, I have heard a lot of negative feedback and this set has sold pretty terrible for me. I loved the figs - but now most of them are in other sets. The actual vehicle is weird looking and almost out of place. 

 

2. 75055 - Star Destroyer: I was really excited when I first saw this set. However now - not so much. Nothing really that much new with it, smaller than the original and at $130 way overpriced compared to others. A lot of people don't remember the last Star Destroyer (MIDI) did not do well. And you can say "MIDI sucks though"! But the MIDI Falcon did pretty well.

 

Overall I am not going to touch this one (except to build it).

 

3. 75058 MTT: Really the same problems as the one above. Smaller, looks incorrect compared to the original. The first was a huge investment winner, but I just don't feel like this one will be. 10 years past the prequels, how popular will this be?

 

4. 79117 Big Turtle Lair Invasion Set: I have a hunch the movie will not do well. The first turtle wave didn't seem to really take off and now there are 9 more sets clogging up the realms. Though the biggest set in a theme usually does well, this one just looks weird. Its a bigger version of the first one and less impressive in my book. Weird colors and a myriad of randomness. Only saving grace is the badass slide.

 

5. 75060 UCS Slave 1 - Just joking, this one will rule.

 

And wouldn't touch anything from the Turtles - this might end up being the worst performing license they ever aquired. All being said from an investor's standpoint. Might still be that kids love the Turtles' sets.

 

Concerning the midi size Star Wars sets: I'd suggest not to waste your time with any of them. Just go buy the real big ones! Sets below $200 are often too ambiguous and make people think too much about them while the big ones are mostly no-brainers. Even the Sandcrawler - which I never labeled as losing your money with, but it is just not an instant winner for me like several other big SW sets.

 

Ninjago I personally don't care about. I don't invest in anything primarily targeted at kids and I don't flip. So no Ninjago, no Chima, no Friends for me.

[naf]

Benny's Spaceship looks just like stuff I used to build when I was a kid.  Granted, I had 0 technic elements in my builds, so they were fragile as hell, but they were the same size and shape.  Always include as many hoses, greebles, lasers, and missiles as you can    I wish I had pictures of some of those ships that I built back in the day, unfortunately it was way before everyone had a camera in their pocket.

[Frank Brickowski]

Everyone pretty much knows my behavior on this site.  I'm never ruffle feathers or start problems...    I was just "floored" by the original post (mainly the reasons why those sets will tank).   I'm all about people providing opinions but at least get the background info correct to support yourself.

 

Was there any wrong background info provided by me?

 

 

 

1. 70724 - Ninjago Copter: I liked this set when it came out. However, I have heard a lot of negative feedback and this set has sold pretty terrible for me. I loved the figs - but now most of them are in other sets. The actual vehicle is weird looking and almost out of place. 

 

2. 75055 - Star Destroyer: I was really excited when I first saw this set. However now - not so much. Nothing really that much new with it, smaller than the original and at $130 way overpriced compared to others. A lot of people don't remember the last Star Destroyer (MIDI) did not do well. And you can say "MIDI sucks though"! But the MIDI Falcon did pretty well.

 

Overall I am not going to touch this one (except to build it).

 

3. 75058 MTT: Really the same problems as the one above. Smaller, looks incorrect compared to the original. The first was a huge investment winner, but I just don't feel like this one will be. 10 years past the prequels, how popular will this be?

 

4. 79117 Big Turtle Lair Invasion Set: I have a hunch the movie will not do well. The first turtle wave didn't seem to really take off and now there are 9 more sets clogging up the realms. Though the biggest set in a theme usually does well, this one just looks weird. Its a bigger version of the first one and less impressive in my book. Weird colors and a myriad of randomness. Only saving grace is the badass slide.

 

 

awesome list with points some based on facts. not just opinion.

 

I don't see much difference here. Mostly opinion, too ("...I love...", "...weird looking...", "...I don't feel like...", "...I have a hunch...", "...looks weird...", "...weird colors...") + comments on overpricing (same as I did) + some opinion on wrong proportions. If something is selling good or not is only known by LEGO, so this is also opinion. I am not criticising this list, but I don't get where those fundamental "facts" are that you mention.

 

By the way: In my original post I did not say that any of the sets will SURELY lose money. I just wanted to point out that those seem like losers since there are several much better sets while with the ones in my list you are taking a risk not necessary. And yes, of course this is mostly opinion. How can anyone KNOW how a set will do after EOL even if you HAD "facts"? No one has them, that's the problem. Everything is just opinion and guessing. I like to hear opinions and would love to see more of them, especially when talking about the negative points of sets.

[Frank Brickowski]

While I'm in the minority, when I first saw Benny's Spaceship, I was unimpressed.  It looked like the old space space line and something I used to slap together.

 

This is why I have my problems with the movie sets: They look like anyone could have designed them - like you could build it at home with the bricks you already own, like nothing special imo. This is something I don't need from a brand with excellent designers. Like I said before: It makes sense inside the movie, but as actual sets I find the whole theme somewhat pointless.

[lodibricks]

 

The Fairground Mixer is no Grand Carousel by any stretch of the imagination - I'd take my money to the blackjack table over betting on that pile. TLG is going to have its hands full trying to figure out how to move this one.

They just had to throw in a balloon cart polybag to sucker me.

[Frank Brickowski]

i pray the Simpsons set has a short run and is unloved by investors.

also it is in its 25th season not 20th and is the longest running sitcom and animated series in US history.

it also spawned a movie that grossed half a billion dollars 20 years after the TV series started, but ultimately this means nothing other than you have synergy between Simpsons aficionados and AFOL both competing for a limited supply.

 

Just to add a bit of (said to be missing) fact to my opinion:

 

See

http://insidetv.ew.com/2014/04/28/the-simpsons-ratings-low/

 

and

 

[speedsausage]

I reread this topic about a month back and since there seems to be an influx of new investors recently, I thought I would give this thread a bump. This gives a good insight to any new investors on people's thought processes, reasons and opinions as to why a set will or won't do well in the future and hopefully it'll promote new POVs from new members.

[Val-E]

Exo suit FTW (for those who didn

Edited April 3, 2015 by valenciaeric

[fossilrock]

Have any of you actually built the Sandcrawler?  If you actually built it, I don't see how you can hate it.  It's an amazing set..

[Val-E]

I think the opinion was based on an investment point of view and not that of buying the set as a build - in this case all of the originally mooted sets have their good points.

 

Since the thread was opened we have learnt that the Simpsons theme will continue and we already saw a mini SW mania with the teaser last November. Imagine what will happen to the sandcrawler when they go full retard on promoting the film or if it retires earlier than expected.

 

Fairground mixer is also going to have the ferris Wheel as a big brother and the Technic plane will do like most other technic - slow but steady growth.

 

The Seacow is maybe the biggest risk due to its high buy in point but I am sure it will be discounted before long so at 20-30% off it could make a shrewd investment, depending on how long it lasts and how the next film is received. There is a chance of there being Lego fatigue by then.

Edited April 3, 2015 by valenciaeric

[bricketycricket]

Simpsons House is gonna do fine, in North America at least. Sandcrawler will also do well as even the old Sandcrawler went up in value despite looking like complete garbage. Fairground Mixer doesn't have the qualities that are typically associated with a good AFOL set. Sea Cow is a total wild card but I will pass on it because I think there is lower hanging fruit to be picked.

Edited April 3, 2015 by bricketycricket

[biking_tiger]

Just to add a bit of (said to be missing) fact to my opinion:

 

See

http://insidetv.ew.com/2014/04/28/the-simpsons-ratings-low/

 

and

 

Because technology and television viewing habits haven't changed in the last 23 years...

[speedsausage]

I think the opinion was based on an investment point of view and not that of buying the set as a build - in this case all of the originally mooted sets have their good points.

Since the thread was opened we have learnt that the Simpsons theme will continue and we already saw a mini SW mania with the teaser last November. Imagine what will happen to the sandcrawler when they go full retard on promoting the film or if it retires earlier than expected.

Fairground mixer is also going to have the ferris Wheel as a big brother and the Technic plane will do like most other technic - slow but steady growth.

The Seacow is maybe the biggest risk due to its high buy in point but I am sure it will be discounted before long so at 20-30% off it could make a shrewd investment, depending on how long it lasts and how the next film is received. There is a chance of there being Lego fatigue by then.

Something I'm unsure about is, is the fairground mixer actually the first in this theme park line? Or is the grand carousel considered to be? Either way the F. Mixer will do well in the future imo. Maybe not make huge returns but an early set in a new theme tends to trend as a positive.

Edit: stupid grammar

Edited April 3, 2015 by speedsausage