Biggest Losers - Class of 2014

[Ed Mack]

I'd say it is a big misconception to refer to the actual PROCESS of building when (rightly) talking about "post-EOL buyers buy to BUILD their sets". Yes, they do! But that does not refer to the building PROCESS but to the finished set being DISPLAYED (and therefore you HAVE to BUILD it).

 

It's hard to imagine buyers paying hundreds of dollars for some hours of building, instead of rather paying that money for looking at the finished build for years afterwards. Meaning: It is fairly unimportant if the build is fun or not. In the end what really counts is what the built set looks like. If it was only the building process itself, why don't they dismantle and build the set over and over again then?

 

And like I said before: This is why I dont cheer for the sea cow. It is fun to build but a pain to look at. Who in the world would pay big bucks for something that looks ugly or embarassing - just because they can remember "oh, those couple of hours I built it were so much fun" every time they have to suppress their urge to gag looking at it?

I somewhat disagree.  The Maersk Triple E is an awful build...Too many damn stickers.  Repetitive containers...But I love that set to invest in and display.  Love it.  The Sea Cow is so damn unique, you have to appreciate it on some level.  With another LEGO Movie on the way, don't count that set out.  It is the largest of a very cool theme.  There are plenty of people who think that set is a work of art...enough to make it valuable one day.

[Migration]

This thread is the reason so few speak out against the herd on this site. A well thought out and well presented argument gets torn apart. Is the OP correct on all points? Of course not. He's not completely wrong either. I can't stand the Sea Cow. Therefore I put my limited resources elsewhere. I love the Simpsons House, but am still hesitant to drop full retail on one. What is the point of this site if not to discuss opposing investing ideas? Don't shoot the messenger just because you don't agree with him.

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[KShine]

The Sea Cow  is on the exclusives, no discount, list.  It cannot be marked down until 2015, unless LEGO changes or renews the policy for 2015.

I thought that LEGO can still discount their own sets (on shop@home) - can't they?

[Ed Mack]

This thread is the reason so few speak out against the herd on this site. A well thought out and well presented argument gets torn apart. Is the OP correct on all points? Of course not. He's not completely wrong either. I can't stand the Sea Cow. Therefore I put my limited resources elsewhere. I love the Simpsons House, but am still hesitant to drop full retail on one. What is the point of this site if not to discuss opposing investing ideas? Don't shoot the messenger just because you don't agree with him.

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It's a good thread.  He has his right to speak his peace.  He has some valid points.  I even agree on the Sandcrawler to a degree.  I think it is a weak UCS set that has 6% of its parts invested in the treads, but it will be a solid investment.

[Ed Mack]

I thought that LEGO can still discount their own sets (on shop@home) - can't they?

Yes, they can do what they want.  They are LEGO, but you will not see that set discounted by other retailers.  

[mudcatsfan]

I thought that LEGO can still discount their own sets (on shop@home) - can't they?

 

Lego can do anything it wants, but it seems that tehy will not discount their own 'exclusives'. Even to the point they won't discount damaged boxes on exclusives. Instead they'll offer bonus Lego points. Which is very nice, but not as good as a discount on the item you're purchasing.

[Bold-Arrow]

This thread is the reason so few speak out against the herd on this site. A well thought out and well presented argument gets torn apart. Is the OP correct on all points? Of course not. He's not completely wrong either. I can't stand the Sea Cow. Therefore I put my limited resources elsewhere. I love the Simpsons House, but am still hesitant to drop full retail on one. What is the point of this site if not to discuss opposing investing ideas? Don't shoot the messenger just because you don't agree with him.

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I thought the discussion was very healthy and entertaining . Did I miss something ?

[Frank Brickowski]

I thought the discussion was very healthy and entertaining . Did I miss something ?

 

No, you didn't. To this point I pretty much like the discussion, too, and I'd love to hear more opinions, especially WHY people like something or not.

 

[legodelorean]

Good insight.  I'm glad members post discussions like this.  I will drop $$$ on the Simpsons house once it's been out a while and hopefully discounted.  Don't know if I could pull the trigger on the other sets.  I'm afraid with the amount of money spent I'll end up with a dud that I won't be able to sell.

[scuttfarkas]

I totally agree with your list as well.

 

UCS Slave 1 will be the superior choice to the Sandcrawler.

Maersk Ship will destroy Metalbeard's Monstrosity.

I'll take Parisian Restaurant over the Simpsons House anywhere, anytime.

Volvo Loader so much better than the Cargo Plane.

The Fairground Mixer is no Grand Carousel by any stretch of the imagination - I'd take my money to the blackjack table over betting on that pile. TLG is going to have its hands full trying to figure out how to move this one.

 

I don't know if you will lose money outright on any of them but when you factor in opportunity cost they will all be a disaster. 

 

Continue a Theme Park theme. 

[Ed Mack]

No, you didn't. To this point I pretty much like the discussion, too, and I'd love to hear more opinions, especially WHY people like something or not.

 

One person's trash is another's treasure.  It is a good thing that people have differing opinions or everyone would be buying the same sets.

[exciter1]

Continue a Theme Park theme. 

 

It's quite possible.  I don't think we have a decent LEGO roller coaster yet.  They could even motorize one with lifts, to a degree.

[KShine]

Yes, they can do what they want.  They are LEGO, but you will not see that set discounted by other retailers.  

That is what I meant - If LEGO over produced the Metalbeard set, I could see it becoming a B-Wing type thing (where LEGO might say "let's get rid of them quick & make some room").

[djim]

I'll throw my thoughts into the ring

 

1. MetalBeard's Sea Cow (70810)

The flagship set for the first Lego Movie.  It's success depends on the longevity of the Lego Movie franchise.  The movie is great and is certainly rewatchable. Kids love it.  High price point, no discounts, and uncertainty will keep most investors at bay, leaving the potential for an underserved secondary-market, allowing prices to inflate faster and higher over time.  That said, where could this end up?  $450-$750 would be my guess.  With a potential to not return 100% of original purchase, this is a questionable investment in my book.  Buy a few to hedge.  Don't bet on it big. 

 

2. The Simpsons House (71006)

No question of the success of the Simpsons brand in general.  The set looks great on display.  Again, as with the Sea Cow, high price point, no discounts (so far and at least for this year).  This set has long-term appeal though.  It will be bought for years to come by many AFOL/Simpsons fans.  In the long run, I see this one selling for $500-$700, giving it potential for 150%+ returns.  A decent bet once this gets closer to EOL.

 

3. Sandcrawler (75059)

The Star Wars brand is unquestionably the best Lego brand for investments historically, but we have also seen plenty of duds do to the shear number of sets available. How appealing is the first Sandcrawler?  It can be had for a bit more than the current version, and I think that, in the end, will plague this set.  If I'm an AFOL in 5 years, how much more will I be willing to pay for the newer version? Both will be "dated" by this time and I personally don't think the new one is that much cooler than the old one.  That aside, there are just better and cooler SW sets for fans to buy, so I think this one will be limited by lack of appeal.  $500-$700 in the long run, making this a questionable investment as well.  I might buy 1.  

 

4. Fairground Mixer (10244)

Is it a one-off?  Is it a new series?  Goes well with Grand Carousel if you want more than 1 nice ride.  Will sell for a lot less than the Grand Carousel in the long run, making it a poor man's GC perhaps? It's a cool looking, unique set, comes with a ton of minifigs (albeit nothing special), lots of playability, fun build (just put it together with my niece this weekend).  High price, no discounts.  I think more than a few of us will invest in this set.  It's a decent investment in my book, once it's been on the shelves for a year or two.  $350-$500.

 

5. Cargo Plane (42025)

No opinion as of yet.  2nd build looks cool, as someone else pointed out.  I'm not big on Technic as investments, but only so I'm not spread too thin.  

[trekgate502]

I really enjoy seeing all the dislike for the Sea Cow.  Please everyone on BrickPicker, don't buy any. (jest).

If no one keeps them to resell, the price on this thing will appreciate because there is a following.

I am in that group.

[Ed Mack]

That is what I meant - If LEGO over produced the Metalbeard set, I could see it becoming a B-Wing type thing (where LEGO might say "let's get rid of them quick & make some room").

Maybe.  When half of the LEGO investors out there think a set is a terd, I can see that happening.  I have 3 of them and that's about it.  My brain says it's a winner...my heart says no, I would rather buy and display something else.  Some people really like this sort of build, so I'm hedging my bet with a few.  

[scuttfarkas]

I don't discount the enjoyment out of building the SEA COW, nor do I think it's a bad set.  I think it's great looking.  Where I think it falls short though, is:

 

1) Very little screen time.  It's not iconic or particularly important to the LEGO MOVIE.

 

2) It trans-genre....doesn't quite fit with traditional ship fans.  There was no "Flying Dutchmen" ship in the Pirates of the Carribean line....so there's no real yardstick to determine that a ship that doesn't look like a traditional ship will sell as well as a traditional looking ship. 

 

3) If it does take part in a sequel...I can't believe that it won't be updated/improved etc. etc.....

[Quacs]

I really enjoy seeing all the dislike for the Sea Cow. Please everyone on BrickPicker, don't buy any. (jest).

If no one keeps them to resell, the price on this thing will appreciate because there is a following.

I am in that group.

Me too, trek.

Also, I haven't heard anyone mention that Sea Cow is also awesomely Steampunk-inspired. There are LOTS of fans/collectors of Steampunk related merch that would pay a princely sum for a Steampunk display ship, especially one that's as ridiculously large as Sea Cow. Most fans of Steampunk will love the Sea Cow.

IMO, the Lego Movie's sequel will fuel demand for the first release sets, not curb demand. When SW Episode 1-3 came out, OT sets didn't become less popular...if anything they became more popular as the new movies reignited the fan base.

All that said, I appreciate OP's potentially contrary viewpoint. Makes for interesting discourse...

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[jaisonline]

When it comes to investing in BIG sets it is common opinion that NONE of them will ever be a real loser. This is my opinion, too, but there are some popular big sets I think are fairly overrated and will in the end "lose" the race for becoming big investment winners after EOL. I do not intend to p*ss anyone off here, criticising their favorite sets. But as it is a common practice in this forum to tell people to "buy, buy, buy!" I thought it might not be a bad idea to make people think again about buying at least in some cases. In the end, of course, this is also to tell you my opinion on sets I just don't understand why they are being hyped the was they are - and to get to know what you think about it.

 

The following sets released in 2014 might - in my opinion - become disappointments after EOL (for the following reasons):

 

1. MetalBeard's Sea Cow (70810)

(My undisputed 1st place on this list. While I do have reservations about the whole LEGO Movie theme, this Cow imo might become an absolute grave for investors' money - maybe the only big set of 2014 you could indeed LOSE money on. Why: Ships generally have a very good reputation as investments - also for me -, my problem with this one here is that it is just "way too fantasy" and simply over the top - which worked in the movie but doesn't work for a set (you invest your bucks in). Neither is it a real ship nor a pirate ship nor is it looking like a historical one. How is any AFOL going to want this after EOL, when the movie hype is over? I mean even for fans of the movie, I don't see too many people pony up $250. Plus it is a LEGO own theme, which is ambiguous on its own already. Has there ever been a set from one of their own themes this expensive?)

 

2. The Simpsons House (71006)

(The main issues here for me are the price and the target group. As a set it looks quite good and accurate to the series, I think, and Simpsons fans will surely love it. BUT: besides them - who else? Furthermore the series is (long) past its peak. It might be in its 20th season but interest is nothing like in the 90s. Anyone investing 200 dollars now might not get their money back for a long time, I fear.)

 

3. Sandcrawler (75059)

(I don't get why people like this set: it is brown, it is clumsy, it is ugly, it has never been an especially popular vehicle in the movies. And even now while being on the market I can't imagine too many people spending 300 bucks on this thing. Not to mention post-EOL performance. Even if you see it as a play set in the first place - which it is supposed to be, I guess. It just does not convince me to spend any money on it. And by the way: I AM a fan of the LEGO Star Wars theme...)

 

4. Fairground Mixer (10244)

(Yes, it might be the beginning of a new summer theme and yes, it might be a cool design idea and cool to construct - but, well, aesthetically it doesn't convince me at all. I saw it built in a LEGO shop and I have to say: That thing looks even more confusing live than it does on the package. If you don't know the name of this set and you look at it, it might actually take up to half a minute to get an idea what this "multi-colored set-up" could be all about. The Mixer might be nice for kids to play, but as an investment? No.)

 

5. Cargo Plane (42025)

(If you asked me I'd say: Don't waste your money on this! While it seems like a good investement at first glance, I doubt this set will ever become popular among TECHNIC fans and even among European TECHNIC fans. From what I know, TECHNIC enthusiasts love construction site equipment! Not too much besides that. Anything flying is quite rare is this theme - for a reason. Have a look at the EOL-gone Helicopter (9396): For a short time people thought it would really "take off" now it is retired, but the value graph tells another story - down from $130 to $100 in just TWO months. My conclusion: TECHNIC don't fly.)

 

Looking forward to your opinions and your personal list!

 

 

Good topic.

I'll take the bait.  Unfort, I do disagree on most items on your list. 

 

1. MetalBeard's Sea Cow (70810)  -  The movie did great at the box-office.  It's sorta too wacky like the majority of non-"2 in 1s" Lego Movie sets.  People seem to either love or hate it.   It does display better than seen in pics.  Can it be Lego's 1st "loser" ship in as long as I can remember.  History tells us it should do well after EOL.  Who am I to bet against Lego ships?  I can't even in this mash-up of a set.

 

2. The Simpsons House (71006)-   looks good.  buyer gets a-lot for $200.  plenty of minifigs, nice element count, features, and nice smaller "gadgets".   The set will be a winner after EOL.

 

3. Sandcrawler (75059).  Have you built this one?  This set is awesome design-wise, minifigs, features, vast size, etc... 

 

The $300 is due to the many larger plates, treads, and other not so common elements used (plus the license cost).  While Sandcrawlers aren't meant to be "good looking" in the films, the ship def is not clumsy especially in Lego form.  

 

Furthermore, Jawas and Sandcrawlers have always been popular with original trilogy fans.   The 1979 Kenner version is an expensive sought-after toy as are most MOC Jawas.  The only reason it didn't sell well in 1979 and 1980 is because of the high price point ($29.88 in 1979 is about $86.61 in today's dollars).  This is a popular set just like 10144 was / is.

 

4. Fairground Mixer (10244) - Kids seem to like this set.  It appears to be selling well everytime I/m in a Lego store.  It also transforms nicely for "travel" (or better yet, storing on a shelf after playtime). Should do fine EOL.

 

5. Cargo Plane (42025) - I have no opinion about this set.  However, it looks pretty cool.  Technics do appreciate slower than most themes except for the Herculean 41999,

[terrymc4677]

The only one of the five sets mentioned that I own are two Simpson houses. I bought them on release day to try and quick flip them. By the time they arrived though, the hype slowed to a crawl and the market was already flooded with those who were able to purchase direct from a lego store. I still think this set has great potential, especially if it's the only one released from this theme (other than the mini figs). It will take several years to mature, but that's fine with me. I gambled and lost on the short term quick flip, but long term this one won't disappoint.

I agree with the OP points on the sea cow, sand crawler, and fairground mixer. I haven't delved into technic, so I can't offer an opinion on the cargo plane. The lego movie sets are fun, but investment wise I just don't see it. Too risky in my opinion. The sand crawler is cool and from an iconic theme, but isn't an iconic vehicle like the other well performing UCS sets. I will probably get 1-2, but only if I can get a discount on them somehow. The fairground mixer will need some other carnival related sets to go with it as others have already mentioned.

Good thread. Thanks for posting.

[biniou]

I overall agree with your 1/2/3/4 sets (I don't own any) but the cargo plane can be bought sometime with a high discount (man, the MSRP here is 119 euros and I could have one for... 64 euros including shipping ! but I didn't because it's far too early and I had to pull the trigger on older sets).

Beside the alternate version of the cargo is fantastic. And this baby has power function. So if you can have this one with a discount, there is absolutely no problem IMO.

 

note: the simpsons house is very small for the price, that's the main problem. The 31012 creator family house (nearly 4 times cheaper) looks the same size.

[stackables]

I remember when the Cow first came out and I expressed my dislike for it.  Still don' like it and will be skipping it.  With Lego's refusal to discount exclusives, a collector like myself has to pick and choose which big sets to get.  I still think the original sandcrawler is good enough and don't see me getting the new expensive one at this time either.  I am a simpson fan but I am not a house/modular guy so this might be a pass too.  Set doesn't really excite me.

 

I honestly don't think anyone will lose money on an exclusive set.  Most of these should do well but I really do not see them returning huge profits.  There are several other exclusives that I would pick over all of them.  One set being the Ewok Village which I believe is a fantastic set.  It is better than my original kenner Ewok village. 

[tractorboy]

Good OP. Nice to see posts that encourage some sensible discussion on sets that divide opinions.

 

Personally, I think the Simpson's house will do reasonably well. The Simpson's has been around so long that a lot of people will have an attachment with it at some point in their lives, even if it's way past it's sell by date. Long term, I'm sure it will be a banker.

 

I'm not convinced about the Lego Movie stuff in general, so I won't be getting into the Sea Cow. The movie did quite well, but Star Wars/Ghostbusters it ain't, and never will be.

I don't think movies like this really grab people's attention long term the way they did when I was a kid, and I don't see the attraction for AFOLs apart from collectors and Lego nerds, most of whom will probably have one before it goes EOL anyway.

Long term it will still have some novelty value perhaps, and if enough investors are swerving it, it might present an opportunity for some returns.

 

I think the Sandcrawler will do ok, but I can't help feeling there are better options for investment elsewhere.

It just doesn't really grab me the way the great UCS sets did.

 

The Mixer, I have zero interest in. I just think it's bland and I can't see any real returns in this one. A nice set for the kids, but I can't see any AFOLs breaking the bank for this one after it retires. Then again, I could be horribly wrong, what do I know?

 

The Cargo plane is an odd one. I'm not sure it's the kind of set Technic fans really go for, and it doesn't really have much display potential, so I'll probably be swerving this one too.

 

Like Ed says, they will all make money I reckon. Just how much remains to be seen.

 

FWIW I don't own any of these sets, but I will probably pick up a Simpson's House or two at some stage.

[JosephMali]

I think all these sets will be great. Find me an expensive and unusual set that has performed poorly in the past and I can find you 10 that have done extremely well.  Besides the Technic set, which appeals to AFOLs, and the mixer, which we will know if it is part of a theme or not before it retires, the other three's popularity is supported by major movies/franchises. Of course, the more investors that disagree with me the better.

[tractorboy]

Me too, trek.

Also, I haven't heard anyone mention that Sea Cow is also awesomely Steampunk-inspired. There are LOTS of fans/collectors of Steampunk related merch that would pay a princely sum for a Steampunk display ship, especially one that's as ridiculously large as Sea Cow. Most fans of Steampunk will love the Sea Cow.

IMO, the Lego Movie's sequel will fuel demand for the first release sets, not curb demand. When SW Episode 1-3 came out, OT sets didn't become less popular...if anything they became more popular as the new movies reignited the fan base.

...

Do you think Quacs? I got the impression that the first movie didn't ignite much interest in these sets, so I can't see how the second one will.

I agree that a sequel won't dampen interest in the first wave as such, I just don't think there's much interest there to begin with.

 

As for Star Wars, people were gagging for merchandise of that first movie while it was still in theaters and beyond. It didn't require a sequel to ignite people's desire for merch.

 

The Steampunk angle is an interesting one, though I suspect most Steampunk fans would be buying it now rather than post-EOL at a premium price.