Biggest Losers - Class of 2014

[Ed Mack]

The Mixer is a very creative set if you really take a look at it.  At first glance, nothing special, but the engineering of the set is fantastic.  

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

This thread is the reason so few speak out against the herd on this site. A well thought out and well presented argument gets torn apart. Is the OP correct on all points? Of course not. He's not completely wrong either. I can't stand the Sea Cow. Therefore I put my limited resources elsewhere. I love the Simpsons House, but am still hesitant to drop full retail on one. What is the point of this site if not to discuss opposing investing ideas? Don't shoot the messenger just because you don't agree with him.

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Who is tearing anything apart? I thought everyone was being pretty respectful. They were disagreeing, but thats the point right?

 

It's a good thread.  He has his right to speak his peace.  He has some valid points.  I even agree on the Sandcrawler to a degree.  I think it is a weak UCS set that has 6% of its parts invested in the treads, but it will be a solid investment.

 

True but treads are hard to come by in other sets to a degree so maybe a wash there. Some unique pieces in there too.

 

Do you think Quacs? I got the impression that the first movie didn't ignite much interest in these sets, so I can't see how the second one will.

I agree that a sequel won't dampen interest in the first wave as such, I just don't think there's much interest there to begin with.

 

As for Star Wars, people were gagging for merchandise of that first movie while it was still in theaters and beyond. It didn't require a sequel to ignite people's desire for merch.

 

The Steampunk angle is an interesting one, though I suspect most Steampunk fans would be buying it now rather than post-EOL at a premium price.

 

No sure where you are getting that they didn't spark interest man - how are you quantifying? Maybe they are sitting around you?

 

The MOMENT I put movie stuff in my store, its gone. I can't keep any of it in stock and none of it has seen discounts. No stores around me can keep stalk.

Actually when i told people before I bought/sold Lego, it was "oh thats cool". Now its "Have you seen the Lego movie? Its awesome!".

 

Sadly I still haven't watched the movie. bought it but just havn't had time.

 

I would venture a guess that the Lego Movie theme is going to end as Lego's top theme at the end of the year. Maybe a bold prediction, (and not so much in some ways since who the hell could verify it), but I am serious - that stuff is flying off shelves places.

[steakyboy]

A soon as I read the five and the reasons why they ARE losers, I figured there would be tons of folks on this forum that would counter with why they are NOT losers and how everyone of them should be purchased at some point...wallet was breaking out in a cold sweat in my back pocket.

 

One thing that always falls into play for me is where the heck am I going to display a big set if I buy it and want to build it without dusting it every 3-4 days. Sea Cow, Sandcrawler and Simpsons House are tough on glass cabinets/doll case displays/resin cubes. Even Benny's SSS is a killer, thing is huge. Does anyone else look at a big set and think where am I going to put that thing, even if I did want to build it and display it? SSD is another monster. I have heard some parents balk at prices, and then mention the sheer size of certain sets.

 

Sorry if off topic. I think the responses to the five have been super rational and extremely polite. Reminds me of the proper etiquette thread that went out not too long ago.

 

BPers are a solid bunch of investors...and my wallet hates you all!

[Bold-Arrow]

only reason I haven't built my SSD is space or more precisely lack of. right on point there

[Noodlenut]

When it comes to investing in BIG sets it is common opinion that NONE of them will ever be a real loser. This is my opinion, too, but there are some popular big sets I think are fairly overrated and will in the end "lose" the race for becoming big investment winners after EOL. I do not intend to p*ss anyone off here, criticising their favorite sets. But as it is a common practice in this forum to tell people to "buy, buy, buy!" I thought it might not be a bad idea to make people think again about buying at least in some cases. In the end, of course, this is also to tell you my opinion on sets I just don't understand why they are being hyped the was they are - and to get to know what you think about it.

 

The following sets released in 2014 might - in my opinion - become disappointments after EOL (for the following reasons):

 

1. MetalBeard's Sea Cow (70810)

(My undisputed 1st place on this list. While I do have reservations about the whole LEGO Movie theme, this Cow imo might become an absolute grave for investors' money - maybe the only big set of 2014 you could indeed LOSE money on. Why: Ships generally have a very good reputation as investments - also for me -, my problem with this one here is that it is just "way too fantasy" and simply over the top - which worked in the movie but doesn't work for a set (you invest your bucks in). Neither is it a real ship nor a pirate ship nor is it looking like a historical one. How is any AFOL going to want this after EOL, when the movie hype is over? I mean even for fans of the movie, I don't see too many people pony up $250. Plus it is a LEGO own theme, which is ambiguous on its own already. Has there ever been a set from one of their own themes this expensive?)

 

2. The Simpsons House (71006)

(The main issues here for me are the price and the target group. As a set it looks quite good and accurate to the series, I think, and Simpsons fans will surely love it. BUT: besides them - who else? Furthermore the series is (long) past its peak. It might be in its 20th season but interest is nothing like in the 90s. Anyone investing 200 dollars now might not get their money back for a long time, I fear.)

 

3. Sandcrawler (75059)

(I don't get why people like this set: it is brown, it is clumsy, it is ugly, it has never been an especially popular vehicle in the movies. And even now while being on the market I can't imagine too many people spending 300 bucks on this thing. Not to mention post-EOL performance. Even if you see it as a play set in the first place - which it is supposed to be, I guess. It just does not convince me to spend any money on it. And by the way: I AM a fan of the LEGO Star Wars theme...)

 

4. Fairground Mixer (10244)

(Yes, it might be the beginning of a new summer theme and yes, it might be a cool design idea and cool to construct - but, well, aesthetically it doesn't convince me at all. I saw it built in a LEGO shop and I have to say: That thing looks even more confusing live than it does on the package. If you don't know the name of this set and you look at it, it might actually take up to half a minute to get an idea what this "multi-colored set-up" could be all about. The Mixer might be nice for kids to play, but as an investment? No.)

 

5. Cargo Plane (42025)

(If you asked me I'd say: Don't waste your money on this! While it seems like a good investement at first glance, I doubt this set will ever become popular among TECHNIC fans and even among European TECHNIC fans. From what I know, TECHNIC enthusiasts love construction site equipment! Not too much besides that. Anything flying is quite rare is this theme - for a reason. Have a look at the EOL-gone Helicopter (9396): For a short time people thought it would really "take off" now it is retired, but the value graph tells another story - down from $130 to $100 in just TWO months. My conclusion: TECHNIC don't fly.)

 

Looking forward to your opinions and your personal list!

If these sets were losers, they would be the first exclusives to perform so badly.  Personally, I think that most of the ones you listed will be huge winners.  

 

1.  LEGO Movie sets

In one thread they receive praise and in another they are the worst sets ever.  Just remember that TLM was a huge hit in the theaters, and with TLM2 coming out later, I really doubt that someone could lose money on the Sea Cow.  When I ask people what they like about the movie, the Sea Cow usually comes up.

 

2.  The Simpsons house

I don't like the Simpsons either, but the design of the house is amazing.  If I could find one without minifigures for a nice price, I would buy it.  I have a hard time seeing this set being a loser.  Also another fact, it has been sold out a few times and has stayed in the top 25 most bought sets on LEGO Shop at Home.  A set that popular does not fail.

 

3.  Sandcrawler

It is big, iconic, expensive, and UCS.  Even if everyone hated the sandcrawler itself, people would still buy it for the minifigures, which are commanding a solid price on eBay right now.

 

4.  Fairground Mixer

This is the one where I don't know which way it's going to go.  I don't care for the set either, but others do.  It has been in the top 25 most bought for a while, and seems popular with most.

 

5.  Cargo Plane

If this is going to be such a money waster, why are people in the US paying so much for it now?  Even if it did come to the US, I can bet you that it would be popular.  As to if Technic sets fly or not, take a look at the new small helicopter.  It is sold out and is very popular.  You can't say "Because this one flying set from Technic failed, all flying sets from Technic will fail."  That technique will not get you any where.  You need to take each situation as it comes along and evaluate each set individually.

[adewar]

Thanks for the post OP. I love hearing contrarian viewpoints on expected winners. I disagree mostly, but appreciate the points.

I expect I will eventually buy a grouping of - 6 simpsons, 1 cow, 3 mixer, 0 SC, 0 CP. Simpsons will be a winner - the cow and mixer are higher risk. If a "LEGO Amusements" theme develops that will change.

[Frank Brickowski]

I somewhat disagree.  The Maersk Triple E is an awful build...Too many damn stickers.  Repetitive containers...But I love that set to invest in and display.

 

We don't disagree in this point, it is rather pretty much what I wanted to express above: The building experience is not relevant for selling a set post-EOL. The only thing that counts is the display quality. That's why the Maersk Triple E would be on my winners list of 2014 - it looks great, so it is not of importance what it is like to build it.

[Quacs]

Do you think Quacs? I got the impression that the first movie didn't ignite much interest in these sets, so I can't see how the second one will.

I agree that a sequel won't dampen interest in the first wave as such, I just don't think there's much interest there to begin with.

As for Star Wars, people were gagging for merchandise of that first movie while it was still in theaters and beyond. It didn't require a sequel to ignite people's desire for merch.

The Steampunk angle is an interesting one, though I suspect most Steampunk fans would be buying it now rather than post-EOL at a premium price.

1. I'm with DNIIM on popularity of TLM sets - they seemed to sell well here.

2. There are always new fans that didn't have a chance to buy sets when they were at retail, whether it is a new Star Wars fan or a new Steampunk fan.

I could be way off base, but I think the Cow will perform well precisely because it's so wacky and different. Just my $.02 - I could be very wrong...

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[Iena78]

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. The Simpsons House (71006)

 

25 season and they still can milk "us" viewer for another 10. Even after the end of the series the merchandising will continue. Many "future"  Simpsons collector will be interested even if they don't collect lego. The only problem is if they re-release it in the future , because i think they can do a better model.

 

 

4. Fairground Mixer (10244)

 

This is one of the best set ever designed, Jamie Berard is a genius http://brickset.com/sets/list-8900 , even without a carnival theme this set will be a winner.

[LegoAidan]

1. MetalBeard's Sea Cow (70810)

I think it will not do too well, especially because of the BSSS (Which I predict $1000+ in 10 years), it will probably go B-Wing on us.

 

2. The Simpsons House (71006)

I bet it will do very well, and once the TV Show (Finally) gets cancelled, 

3. Sandcrawler (75059)

will do horrible

 

4. Fairground Mixer (10244)

hmmm, hard to say

 

5. Cargo Plane (42025)

I don't collect and/or invest in Technic

[TheOrcKing]

Whether or not these sets will be winners or losers....

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

 

1. MetalBeard's Sea Cow (70810)

I think it will not do too well, especially because of the BSSS (Which I predict $1000+ in 10 years), it will probably go B-Wing on us.

 

2. The Simpsons House (71006)

I bet it will do very well, and once the TV Show (Finally) gets cancelled, 

3. Sandcrawler (75059)

will do horrible

 

4. Fairground Mixer (10244)

hmmm, hard to say

 

5. Cargo Plane (42025)

I don't collect and/or invest in Technic

 

 

Have any background on these thoughts?

 

1. You think Benny's Spaceship is going to basically (whatever the hell X11 is) in 10 years? You realize only like 15 sets have ever hit 1000$ right? And none that were developed since like 2007.

 

It would be way eaiser for the Sea Cow to hit that (and it wont) .

 

I love when people trash talk the Bwing. Its gained almost 100$ in the last year and is still easily growing (just retired in October/November). Id love to have more Bwing sets: Sets I got a crap load of at $125 and expect that will hit 400$-500$ in 2-3 years.

 

3. Thoughts on why? I mean, there aren't too many big Star Wars sets that haven't done well (besides Grievous and the Starfighter - and the Sandcrawler destroys those.)

[TheDarkness]

I personally disagree with the lot but I also disagree with a lot of posts on here. Like all investments it depends what you buy in for. Regardless of my personal opinions ( not a steampunk nor Simpsons fan) I think each of these sets look amazing with their own uniqueness. Hate all you want but I think Lego has lifted the bar and the sets will do well. All that is needed is a little patience...

[Brickrunner]

My attempt of posting an embedded Youtube of Patience failed me.  Guess I need more Patience....

 

 

Edit: Success!

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

I personally disagree with the lot but I also disagree with a lot of posts on here. Like all investments it depends what you buy in for. Regardless of my personal opinions ( not a steampunk nor Simpsons fan) I think each of these sets look amazing with their own uniqueness. Hate all you want but I think Lego has lifted the bar and the sets will do well. All that is needed is a little patience...

 

You bring up a good point totally accidentally:

 

Region is huge too and you have talked about that a lot. Things in Austrailia are not the same popular things here and vice versa. The UK is not really into Ninjago yet its crazy in the US. So you may see some things as huge winners outside your country, and not at all inside.

[TheDarkness]

You bring up a good point totally accidentally:

Region is huge too and you have talked about that a lot. Things in Austrailia are not the same popular things here and vice versa. The UK is not really into Ninjago yet its crazy in the US. So you may see some things as huge winners outside your country, and not at all inside.

Exactly. Friends sets here seem to do horribly. Technic is a big winner. Ninjago is a consistent seller for me while Super Heroes is crazy.

With the current sales going on here though, most of those sets are flying off the shelves.

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[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

Howabout some new talking points!!!

 

So Ill jump in with the OP with some of my pics for worst performing sets of the ones that have come or will come out in 2014:

 

1. 70724 - Ninjago Copter: I liked this set when it came out. However, I have heard a lot of negative feedback and this set has sold pretty terrible for me. I loved the figs - but now most of them are in other sets. The actual vehicle is weird looking and almost out of place. 

 

2. 75055 - Star Destroyer: I was really excited when I first saw this set. However now - not so much. Nothing really that much new with it, smaller than the original and at $130 way overpriced compared to others. A lot of people don't remember the last Star Destroyer (MIDI) did not do well. And you can say "MIDI sucks though"! But the MIDI Falcon did pretty well.

 

Overall I am not going to touch this one (except to build it).

 

3. 75058 MTT: Really the same problems as the one above. Smaller, looks incorrect compared to the original. The first was a huge investment winner, but I just don't feel like this one will be. 10 years past the prequels, how popular will this be?

 

4. 79117 Big Turtle Lair Invasion Set: I have a hunch the movie will not do well. The first turtle wave didn't seem to really take off and now there are 9 more sets clogging up the realms. Though the biggest set in a theme usually does well, this one just looks weird. Its a bigger version of the first one and less impressive in my book. Weird colors and a myriad of randomness. Only saving grace is the badass slide.

 

5. 75060 UCS Slave 1 - Just joking, this one will rule.

[naf]

Howabout some new talking points!!!

 

So Ill jump in with the OP with some of my pics for worst performing sets of the ones that have come or will come out in 2014:

 

1. 70724 - Ninjago Copter: I liked this set when it came out. However, I have heard a lot of negative feedback and this set has sold pretty terrible for me. I loved the figs - but now most of them are in other sets. The actual vehicle is weird looking and almost out of place. 

 

2. 75055 - Star Destroyer: I was really excited when I first saw this set. However now - not so much. Nothing really that much new with it, smaller than the original and at $130 way overpriced compared to others. A lot of people don't remember the last Star Destroyer (MIDI) did not do well. And you can say "MIDI sucks though"! But the MIDI Falcon did pretty well.

 

Overall I am not going to touch this one (except to build it).

 

3. 75058 MTT: Really the same problems as the one above. Smaller, looks incorrect compared to the original. The first was a huge investment winner, but I just don't feel like this one will be. 10 years past the prequels, how popular will this be?

 

4. 79117 Big Turtle Lair Invasion Set: I have a hunch the movie will not do well. The first turtle wave didn't seem to really take off and now there are 9 more sets clogging up the realms. Though the biggest set in a theme usually does well, this one just looks weird. Its a bigger version of the first one and less impressive in my book. Weird colors and a myriad of randomness. Only saving grace is the badass slide.

 

5. 75060 UCS Slave 1 - Just joking, this one will rule.

 

I agree with you on all these points.  While smaller doesn't necessarily = worse (I like the new sail barge more than the old one, even though it's smaller), the new MTT just doesn't look right.  So much so that I went and bought a used 7662 instead of spending money on the new one.

 

I was really hoping that I'd be wow'ed by the new star destroyer.  I missed the old one and I want one for my collection.  But this thing looks like Lego just phoned it in, there's next to nothing going on with the interior.  The new imperial officer hats do look cool though.

 

The first turtle wave really grew on me, the 2nd wave not so much.  The movie looks bad, and so do the sets.  Wave 1 turtle lair is way better than the movie version.  Can't really blame Lego I guess, they had a poor source material to work with.

[stephen_rockefeller]

Howabout some new talking points!!!

 

So Ill jump in with the OP with some of my pics for worst performing sets of the ones that have come or will come out in 2014:

 

1. 70724 - Ninjago Copter: I liked this set when it came out. However, I have heard a lot of negative feedback and this set has sold pretty terrible for me. I loved the figs - but now most of them are in other sets. The actual vehicle is weird looking and almost out of place. 

 

2. 75055 - Star Destroyer: I was really excited when I first saw this set. However now - not so much. Nothing really that much new with it, smaller than the original and at $130 way overpriced compared to others. A lot of people don't remember the last Star Destroyer (MIDI) did not do well. And you can say "MIDI sucks though"! But the MIDI Falcon did pretty well.

 

Overall I am not going to touch this one (except to build it).

 

3. 75058 MTT: Really the same problems as the one above. Smaller, looks incorrect compared to the original. The first was a huge investment winner, but I just don't feel like this one will be. 10 years past the prequels, how popular will this be?

 

4. 79117 Big Turtle Lair Invasion Set: I have a hunch the movie will not do well. The first turtle wave didn't seem to really take off and now there are 9 more sets clogging up the realms. Though the biggest set in a theme usually does well, this one just looks weird. Its a bigger version of the first one and less impressive in my book. Weird colors and a myriad of randomness. Only saving grace is the badass slide.

 

5. 75060 UCS Slave 1 - Just joking, this one will rule.

Not taking anything from the OPs opinion but this a much better list.

[naf]

Not taking anything from the OPs opinion but this a much better list.

 

To be fair, the OP's list is really "sets that should theoretically do well, but won't for the following reasons."  Everything except the technic set are exclusives.

[jaisonline]

Howabout some new talking points!!!

 

So Ill jump in with the OP with some of my pics for worst performing sets of the ones that have come or will come out in 2014:

 

1. 70724 - Ninjago Copter: I liked this set when it came out. However, I have heard a lot of negative feedback and this set has sold pretty terrible for me. I loved the figs - but now most of them are in other sets. The actual vehicle is weird looking and almost out of place. 

 

2. 75055 - Star Destroyer: I was really excited when I first saw this set. However now - not so much. Nothing really that much new with it, smaller than the original and at $130 way overpriced compared to others. A lot of people don't remember the last Star Destroyer (MIDI) did not do well. And you can say "MIDI sucks though"! But the MIDI Falcon did pretty well.

 

Overall I am not going to touch this one (except to build it).

 

3. 75058 MTT: Really the same problems as the one above. Smaller, looks incorrect compared to the original. The first was a huge investment winner, but I just don't feel like this one will be. 10 years past the prequels, how popular will this be?

 

4. 79117 Big Turtle Lair Invasion Set: I have a hunch the movie will not do well. The first turtle wave didn't seem to really take off and now there are 9 more sets clogging up the realms. Though the biggest set in a theme usually does well, this one just looks weird. Its a bigger version of the first one and less impressive in my book. Weird colors and a myriad of randomness. Only saving grace is the badass slide.

 

5. 75060 UCS Slave 1 - Just joking, this one will rule.

 

awesome list with points some based on facts. not just opinion.

[jaisonline]

To be fair, the OP's list is really "sets that should theoretically do well, but won't for the following reasons."  Everything except the technic set are exclusives.

 

True.  However, there weren't many (if any) facts to support the list.  When i read a statements like the ones below, I can't help but question things.

 

- "I don't get why people like this set (Sandcrawler): it is brown, it is clumsy, it is ugly, it has never been an especially popular vehicle in the movies. And even now while being on the market I can't imagine too many people spending 300 bucks on this thing. Not to mention post-EOL performance..."

 

- "It (Simpsons) might be in its 20th season but interest is nothing like in the 90s."

 

- "this Cow imo might become an absolute grave for investors' money - maybe the only big set of 2014 you could indeed LOSE money on. Why: Ships generally have a very good reputation as investments - also for me -, my problem with this one here is that it is just "way too fantasy" and simply over the top - which worked in the movie but doesn't work for a set (you invest your bucks in). Neither is it a real ship nor a pirate ship nor is it looking like a historical one. How is any AFOL going to want this after EOL, when the movie hype is over? I mean even for fans of the movie, I don't see too many people pony up $250. Plus it is a LEGO own theme, which is ambiguous on its own already. Has there ever been a set from one of their own themes this expensive?)"

 

Everyone pretty much knows my behavior on this site.  I'm never ruffle feathers or start problems...    I was just "floored" by the original post (mainly the reasons why those sets will tank).   I'm all about people providing opinions but at least get the background info correct to support yourself.

[exciter1]

 

2. 75055 - Star Destroyer: I was really excited when I first saw this set. However now - not so much. Nothing really that much new with it, smaller than the original and at $130 way overpriced compared to others. A lot of people don't remember the last Star Destroyer (MIDI) did not do well. And you can say "MIDI sucks though"! But the MIDI Falcon did pretty well.

 

Overall I am not going to touch this one (except to build it).

 

3. 75058 MTT: Really the same problems as the one above. Smaller, looks incorrect compared to the original. The first was a huge investment winner, but I just don't feel like this one will be. 10 years past the prequels, how popular will this be?

 

 

5. 75060 UCS Slave 1 - Just joking, this one will rule.

 

Selfishly, for both the MTT and Star Destroyer, at least the 6211 and 7662 used prices will come down for those who missed them the first time.  I was able to get a reasonably priced original Sail Barge and I plan to do the same with the original Sandcrawler, as prices keep dropping.

 

I have high expectations for the UCS Slave 1, so I hope they stick to the formula of designing another great build (ala new Sandcrawler) with an awesome minifigure selection.

[Mathew]

The Sea Cow will do well if it is heavily featured in the upcoming sequel(s) and how well those movies do.  The Sea Cow sequence in the Lego Movie is quite artful if you know what I mean.  The set itself is a very neat design and I think priced right at $250.  But it will be a niche item because of it's uniqueness.  

[exciter1]

The Sea Cow will do well if it is heavily featured in the upcoming sequel(s) and how well those movies do.  The Sea Cow sequence in the Lego Movie is quite artful if you know what I mean.  The set itself is a very neat design and I think priced right at $250.  But it will be a niche item because of it's uniqueness.  

 

If they come out with a new version of the Sea Cow for the sequel, then maybe I can afford this one.