Biggest Losers - Class of 2014

[Frank Brickowski]

When it comes to investing in BIG sets it is common opinion that NONE of them will ever be a real loser. This is my opinion, too, but there are some popular big sets I think are fairly overrated and will in the end "lose" the race for becoming big investment winners after EOL. I do not intend to p*ss anyone off here, criticising their favorite sets. But as it is a common practice in this forum to tell people to "buy, buy, buy!" I thought it might not be a bad idea to make people think again about buying at least in some cases. In the end, of course, this is also to tell you my opinion on sets I just don't understand why they are being hyped the was they are - and to get to know what you think about it.

 

The following sets released in 2014 might - in my opinion - become disappointments after EOL (for the following reasons):

 

1. MetalBeard's Sea Cow (70810)

(My undisputed 1st place on this list. While I do have reservations about the whole LEGO Movie theme, this Cow imo might become an absolute grave for investors' money - maybe the only big set of 2014 you could indeed LOSE money on. Why: Ships generally have a very good reputation as investments - also for me -, my problem with this one here is that it is just "way too fantasy" and simply over the top - which worked in the movie but doesn't work for a set (you invest your bucks in). Neither is it a real ship nor a pirate ship nor is it looking like a historical one. How is any AFOL going to want this after EOL, when the movie hype is over? I mean even for fans of the movie, I don't see too many people pony up $250. Plus it is a LEGO own theme, which is ambiguous on its own already. Has there ever been a set from one of their own themes this expensive?)

 

2. The Simpsons House (71006)

(The main issues here for me are the price and the target group. As a set it looks quite good and accurate to the series, I think, and Simpsons fans will surely love it. BUT: besides them - who else? Furthermore the series is (long) past its peak. It might be in its 20th season but interest is nothing like in the 90s. Anyone investing 200 dollars now might not get their money back for a long time, I fear.)

 

3. Sandcrawler (75059)

(I don't get why people like this set: it is brown, it is clumsy, it is ugly, it has never been an especially popular vehicle in the movies. And even now while being on the market I can't imagine too many people spending 300 bucks on this thing. Not to mention post-EOL performance. Even if you see it as a play set in the first place - which it is supposed to be, I guess. It just does not convince me to spend any money on it. And by the way: I AM a fan of the LEGO Star Wars theme...)

 

4. Fairground Mixer (10244)

(Yes, it might be the beginning of a new summer theme and yes, it might be a cool design idea and cool to construct - but, well, aesthetically it doesn't convince me at all. I saw it built in a LEGO shop and I have to say: That thing looks even more confusing live than it does on the package. If you don't know the name of this set and you look at it, it might actually take up to half a minute to get an idea what this "multi-colored set-up" could be all about. The Mixer might be nice for kids to play, but as an investment? No.)

 

5. Cargo Plane (42025)

(If you asked me I'd say: Don't waste your money on this! While it seems like a good investement at first glance, I doubt this set will ever become popular among TECHNIC fans and even among European TECHNIC fans. From what I know, TECHNIC enthusiasts love construction site equipment! Not too much besides that. Anything flying is quite rare is this theme - for a reason. Have a look at the EOL-gone Helicopter (9396): For a short time people thought it would really "take off" now it is retired, but the value graph tells another story - down from $130 to $100 in just TWO months. My conclusion: TECHNIC don't fly.)

 

Looking forward to your opinions and your personal list!

[exciter1]

Can't wait to read your analysis.  I've kinda felt that way about the sets on your list too, so maybe you'll articulate my thinking.  Could be an interesting discussion.

 

Note: Thumbs up, I share most of your sentiments.  I still think the Sandcrawler will be a winner among fans, but I'm still up in the air about it's investment potential.  If it gets a surprise discount, that may be another story.

[waddamon]

I pretty much agree. The mixer though is an amazing set. If this is the first of many for a carnival theme then who knows how high it can go. It takes Lego modulars to a whole other level and expands the imagination. If a carnival theme will exist this will be high on my list and the first of a theme which is a good thing. Downside is no investment will be made for 2 or 3 years.

[stephen_rockefeller]

The only one on your list I agree with is the cargo plane.

[cladner]

i pray the Simpsons set has a short run and is unloved by investors.

also it is in its 25th season not 20th and is the longest running sitcom and animated series in US history.

it also spawned a movie that grossed half a billion dollars 20 years after the TV series started, but ultimately this means nothing other than you have synergy between Simpsons aficionados and AFOL both competing for a limited supply.

[marcandre]

Simpsons will do great imho

[segreto]

1. MetalBeard's Sea Cow (70810)

 

This is a fun build, and new collectors/builders will want to have it.  Ship collectors will want to have it. And, most importantly, it is a part of Lego history.  I think this will be on par with the Star Wars collections.

 

2. The Simpsons House (71006)

Yea, I agree on this one, with the exception of a very long-term investment.  

 

 

3. Sandcrawler (75059)

100% agree with your assessment.  

 

 

4. I don't have this set.  

[Mos_Eisley]

The only one on your list I agree with is the cargo plane.

I agree with this.

[Val-E]

Cargo plane is no use to flip unless you build it and then part it out (lots of White panels, motors and linear actuators).  What may save it is if it goes EOL in Jan 2016 as then it will have only been on the US market for 18 months.

 

As always, it also depends on what you paid when you bought it. At more than 40% off, you will definitely make a profit.....

[exciter1]

The Sandcrawler will be the only one of these I own, in the short-term.  I may pick up a Simpson's House if the mood strikes me.  The Sea Cow, we'll see, it's one to watch.  I'll have a Fairground Mixer eventually.  We mid-westerners are all carny's at heart.

[fuzzy_bricks]

I tend to share those sentiments on the Seacow and Simpsons house, but just because I don't like something doesn't mean someone else doesn't and won't spend their money on it.

I agree that if the Mixer is the first in a line of Carnival sets, then it will be sought after later for people that missed it.

On the helicopter and the price drop, I know TRU was selling this on their website at $100.  If they also sold this on their eBay store at the same price it would affect the value you see, similar to Target blowing out the Desert Skiff.

[jerryherb]

sea cow - crap

simpsons - gold

sandcrawler - needs a firesale like b-wing

mixer - at $99, maybe

cargo plane - very detailed and I have always managed good returns with technic sets, depends on price if ever available in US, did you see the hovercraft?

[tonysbricks]

Assuming people still care about lego when it retires, sandcrawler will do just fine.

[asharerin]

I totally agree with your list as well.

 

UCS Slave 1 will be the superior choice to the Sandcrawler.

Maersk Ship will destroy Metalbeard's Monstrosity.

I'll take Parisian Restaurant over the Simpsons House anywhere, anytime.

Volvo Loader so much better than the Cargo Plane.

The Fairground Mixer is no Grand Carousel by any stretch of the imagination - I'd take my money to the blackjack table over betting on that pile. TLG is going to have its hands full trying to figure out how to move this one.

 

I don't know if you will lose money outright on any of them but when you factor in opportunity cost they will all be a disaster. 

[jerryherb]

Maersk ship is definitely a winner, all maersk licensed sets have done extremely well, perhaps due to their limited availability.

[stephen_rockefeller]

Saying one set will not perform because you like another set better makes zero sense. Sounds like more excuses not to spend big bucks on big sets. Once again Mars rovers for everyone!!

[stephen_rockefeller]

 

I don't know if you will lose money outright on any of them but when you factor in opportunity cost they will all be a disaster.

silliness.

[stephen_rockefeller]

I'm loving the hate for the sea cow!!! Obviously most have never seen it in person and or built it.

[naf]

1. MetalBeard's Sea Cow (70810)

I agree with your statements on this one.  The only thing this set has going for it is it's size.  The set is obviously aimed at children, and a) a lot of parents don't buy their kids $200+ lego sets, and AFOLs are the primary audience for post-retirement Lego sales, not kids.  As an AFOL, I think it looks cool, but I wouldn't spend money on it myself.  Does anyone know roughly how well it's selling?

 

2. The Simpsons House (71006)

Probably a good investment if you hold for a long time, but I think the money is better spent elsewhere.  Simpson's are iconic, but the build on this one is a bit bland.

 

3. Sandcrawler (75059)

I think this one will do ok, but like the simpson's house money is probably better spent on something like more modulars.  This is a remake, and there seems to be a bit of discussion regarding whether this one is better than the old crawler, which will limit it's audience a bit.  I'll buy a couple down the road, but probably not a ton.

 

4. Fairground Mixer (10244)

The aftermarket success of this one banks on whether we have a yearly theme like the winter village series, which would drive up it's collectibility considerably.

 

5. Cargo Plane (42025)

I dont' know much about technics, so I can't really comment on this set.  The only technic set I've invested in so far is the 4x4 crawler since it's a pretty unique set and there have been some good discounts on it lately.

[exciter1]

I'm loving the hate for the sea cow!!! Obviously most have never seen it in person and or built it.

 

I think it's more Love/Hate.  Love to build, but hate to invest.

[asharerin]

silliness.

 

Factoring in opportunity cost is silliness? LOL. Ok champ.

[naf]

I'm loving the hate for the sea cow!!! Obviously most have never seen it in person and or built it.

 

I've seen it, it's impressive but it doesn't impress me, if that makes any sense.  I'd rather own 10210 Imperial Flagship than the Sea Cow.

[stephen_rockefeller]

Doubt any smack talkers have built it.

[fuzzy_bricks]

I'm loving the hate for the sea cow!!! Obviously most have never seen it in person and or built it.

I've seen it and think it is awesome, but I feel like it is a more "in the now" set.  After a few years how many people are going to come back and want to pay big bucks for it.  I'm sure there are people that will, but it is riding the popularity of the movie right now.  If the movies continue, which I think the next one is already scheduled, then it may continue to be popular.

[tonysbricks]

Doubt any smack talkers have built it.

 

Which is exactly the problem.

 

If I see it but don't want it, I don't buy it. If I have to build it to want it, then I have already built it and already own it. And therefore I don't need to buy it.