21017 - Imperial Hotel

[Miami Bomb Squad]

On ‎3‎/‎11‎/‎2016 at 8:21 PM, Gonkalin said:

I believe Leaning Tower will do well as it was not available for very long. Might be a bit of a sleeper like Sugnymen (sp??).

My 2 cents....

Does not compare.
Pisa was out for 2.5 years vs. Sungnyemum (8 months).
Also, Pisa is a easy repetitive build. 
 

 

[Migration]

1 hour ago, Miami Bomb Squad said:

Does not compare.
Pisa was out for 2.5 years vs. Sungnyemum (8 months).
Also, Pisa is a easy repetitive build. 
 

 

You're right, they don't really compare. The Leaning Tower of Pisa is very well known. How many here had heard of Sungnemum before the set came out? Yes rarity is good, but so is widespread recognition.

Edited March 23, 2016 by Migration

[Miami Bomb Squad]

17 minutes ago, Migration said:

You're right, they don't really compare. The Leaning Tower of Pisa is very well known. How many here had heard of Sungnemum before the set came out? Yes rarity is good, but so is widespread recognition.

Marina Bay Sands  21021

Edited March 23, 2016 by Miami Bomb Squad

[ISO8T0]

Does not compare.

Pisa was out for 2.5 years vs. Sungnyemum (8 months).

Also, Pisa is a easy repetitive build. 

 

 

I was unimpressed when I saw Pisa in person...... just sayin'

[Deadfraggle]

2 minutes ago, pstebbing said:

I was unimpressed when I saw Pisa in person...... just sayin'

Robie House, it is not. Still, I have a bit of an obsession with collecting all the architecture sets....maybe others do as well?

[HappyHawkeye]

20 minutes ago, Deadfraggle said:

Robie House, it is not. Still, I have a bit of an obsession with collecting all the architecture sets....maybe others do as well?

Me too

[ISO8T0]

Robie House, it is not. Still, I have a bit of an obsession with collecting all the architecture sets....maybe others do as well?

I come by it honestly. .... being married to an architect and all.

[Migration]

45 minutes ago, Miami Bomb Squad said:

Marina Bay Sands  21021

MBS is WAY more limited than any other architecture set. You're comparing a set that was limited to a single hotel gift shop to one that was available for purchase worldwide? 

[Miami Bomb Squad]

26 minutes ago, Migration said:

MBS is WAY more limited than any other architecture set. You're comparing a set that was limited to a single hotel gift shop to one that was available for purchase worldwidE

 

I'm referring that MBS is not that recognizable, yet, it's $700 + nowadays.

[binici]

I loved Robie House and I was lucky to have picked these up from B&N back in the day when they were giving them away for practically free!

This set though, I just came back from a B&N I saw about four or five back on the shelves...

I think B&N hoarded this set more than us!

[Val-E]

It seems nobody bought IH. Why are there so many still on shelves if it has not bee made since May 2015. Bad sign.

[Cheese]

Still lots on the shelves here in the UK at a number of places. With the promo that TRU are running its effectively a 20 % reduction on a retired set and still no takers. I only got two in Xmas sales thinking it would rise nicely post retirement and since flipped them both for a modest profit. Very glad that I managed to do that since the numbers on the shelves don't indicate great demand. Any rise will take a while and I'd rather invest in other areas. Sticking to things that have more universal appeal and thus bigger market which also means being more selective on the more expensive items and looking at more lower/medium price items to flip. As well as being easier to move, less hassle with storage, postage and fallout is less if there is an issue post sale

[Graisan]

I'm new in investing in LEGO. I like the architecture theme very much. I'm not a friend of to much risks and investing in them has an advantage. If they don't increase, you have beautiful sceneries. I now saw that in Germany the Imperial Hotel is on discount to 100€. Should I buy it? Retail was 120€.

[mudcatsfan]

5 hours ago, Graisan said:

I'm new in investing in LEGO. I like the architecture theme very much. I'm not a friend of to much risks and investing in them has an advantage. If they don't increase, you have beautiful sceneries. I now saw that in Germany the Imperial Hotel is on discount to 100€. Should I buy it? Retail was 120€.

I don't know the European market and its desire for architecture sets, but in the US they've been very successful when the larger sets retire. This set is retired in the US, and many predicted it would  stores for quite a while like previous architecture sets. From where i live,  it is finally starting to disappear from Barnes & Noble, and Toysrus (the last places you could still find it).

Based on the number of sellers on Amazon and where they're priced currently, I have a feeling this will be a $200 USD fairly soon which is a decent increase from the retail price of 129.99. However many of us got it at much deeper discounts than $130, so there are quite a few sellers likely to get out at $200. Once that purge happens it could jump to 275-300 by Christmas.  Just my opinion. 

 If I were you I would absolutely pick one up, at any discount, if not a couple.

[mudcatsfan]

On 3/23/2016 at 3:33 AM, Val-E said:

It seems nobody bought IH. Why are there so many still on shelves if it has not bee made since May 2015. Bad sign.

Funny you say that. I actually take that to be an incredibly good sign.

[Val-E]

5 hours ago, Graisan said:

I'm new in investing in LEGO. I like the architecture theme very much. I'm not a friend of to much risks and investing in them has an advantage. If they don't increase, you have beautiful sceneries. I now saw that in Germany the Imperial Hotel is on discount to 100€. Should I buy it? Retail was 120€.

Avoid this one at all costs.

[Val-E]

9 minutes ago, mudcatsfan said:

Funny you say that. I actually take that to be an incredibly good sign.

Please explain in more detail what you see is positive about a set that no one is buying at retail or below, one year after the last one was produced. Could it apply to Lone Ranger and Benny´s Spaceship too?

[fossilrock]

1 hour ago, mudcatsfan said:

I don't know the European market and its desire for architecture sets, but in the US they've been very successful when the larger sets retire. This set is retired in the US, and many predicted it would  stores for quite a while like previous architecture sets. From where i live,  it is finally starting to disappear from Barnes & Noble, and Toysrus (the last places you could still find it).

Based on the number of sellers on Amazon and where they're priced currently, I have a feeling this will be a $200 USD fairly soon which is a decent increase from the retail price of 129.99. However many of us got it at much deeper discounts than $130, so there are quite a few sellers likely to get out at $200. Once that purge happens it could jump to 275-300 by Christmas.  Just my opinion. 

 If I were you I would absolutely pick one up, at any discount, if not a couple.

i doubt it goes to 275. Fallingwater, which is a little more iconic has sort of stagnated around 220...

[mudcatsfan]

6 hours ago, Val-E said:

Please explain in more detail what you see is positive about a set that no one is buying at retail or below, one year after the last one was produced. Could it apply to Lone Ranger and Benny´s Spaceship too?

Under appreciated sets are good for investors if there's a reason to appreciate them once they are gone. I think this set is quality, and will be a "wow, they made that?!?" set in the future.    Being part of a 'set' helps too.  Everyone thought the Town Hall was a turd until they couldn't have one. They had to complete their modular set and it went crazy.  Being part of the Frank Lloyd Wright subset helps even more. With everyone bemoaning the hoarde and then being 25 deep on any set worth a damn, I like that this one retired quietly and with old seal codes.

For the record,  I bet Benny is winner in 2-3 years time, based on the sheer quality of the build.  I think it hits 1.5x retail by 3rd year gone. Considering the 30-50% discounts that could also be a strong hold.

Lone Ranger, I don't like.  None of them have the wow factor. 

 

5 hours ago, fossilrock said:

i doubt it goes to 275. Fallingwater, which is a little more iconic has sort of stagnated around 220...

If 2.2x retail on a consistently 20-35% off set is stagnated,  sign me up.

IH is 30% more expensive than FW to begin with.  If IH only doubles it's at 260.  FW already cleared 2.25x retail. They both have legs to continue to rise. There are very few sellers between IH hitting 200. Once it's through those sellers (30-40) it can really take off.  

Again,  just my opinion, and experience with architecture sets. Especially the FLW sets. You say FW is more iconic but to a FLW fan, you need both. Those are the people we want buying these and they don't really care if it's 300 or 400 or 500. It's just money.

[redghostx]

If 2.2x retail on a consistently 20-35% off set is stagnated,  sign me up.

IH is 30% more expensive than FW to begin with.  If IH only doubles it's at 260.  FW already cleared 2.25x retail. They both have legs to continue to rise. There are very few sellers between IH hitting 200. Once it's through those sellers (30-40) it can really take off.  

Again,  just my opinion, and experience with architecture sets. Especially the FLW sets. You say FW is more iconic but to a FLW fan, you need both. Those are the people we want buying these and they don't really care if it's 300 or 400 or 500. It's just money.

I strongly agree with you on the last point and I have had people that come in to my home and see Robie House and know that it is a FLW design. Architecture sets may be a smaller market, but it is an affluent one.

[Val-E]

3 hours ago, mudcatsfan said:

Under appreciated sets are good for investors if there's a reason to appreciate them once they are gone. I think this set is quality, and will be a "wow, they made that?!?" set in the future.    Being part of a 'set' helps too.  Everyone thought the Town Hall was a turd until they couldn't have one. They had to complete their modular set and it went crazy.  Being part of the Frank Lloyd Wright subset helps even more. With everyone bemoaning the hoarde and then being 25 deep on any set worth a damn, I like that this one retired quietly and with old seal codes.

For the record,  I bet Benny is winner in 2-3 years time, based on the sheer quality of the build.  I think it hits 1.5x retail by 3rd year gone. Considering the 30-50% discounts that could also be a strong hold.

Lone Ranger, I don't like.  None of them have the wow factor. 

 

If 2.2x retail on a consistently 20-35% off set is stagnated,  sign me up.

IH is 30% more expensive than FW to begin with.  If IH only doubles it's at 260.  FW already cleared 2.25x retail. They both have legs to continue to rise. There are very few sellers between IH hitting 200. Once it's through those sellers (30-40) it can really take off.  

Again,  just my opinion, and experience with architecture sets. Especially the FLW sets. You say FW is more iconic but to a FLW fan, you need both. Those are the people we want buying these and they don't really care if it's 300 or 400 or 500. It's just money.

For Benny to do well, a lot rests on the next movie. If it doesn´t give it a kick up the backside then I can´t share your optimism. I think 3 x buy-in price will be as good as it gets.

Regarding IH, the fact that in Europe it is still freely available and that shops are discounting it to clear lines does not bode well. The sets that went quietly and unexpectedly last year were United Nations and especially Villa Savoye. Both of these made substantial gains over RRP and are now very hard to find (I believe that in the US, it is the opposite). Ebay is chock full of IH´s at around RRP and they are not selling (one seller is even bundling them to reduce stock).

If our Italian investor is happy making 30-40 euros profit in a year or perhaps doubling his money 5 years down the line, then fine, but I think that there are much better and safer alternatives around.

 

[tractorboy]

Fallingwater, Farnsworth, Villa Savoye are all doing really well in EU. So I was a bit surprised this didn't see a jump post EOL. I think a lot of investors missed out on those first three, but got on board for IH when they saw the others do so well. Everybody saw it's retirement coming too, whereas the others went quietly. So gains will be a little slow for a while. I agree with mudcatsfan though, there will be enough people wanting this down the line to see it grow slowly but steadily once the herd thins.

Robie has been doing fine here too, but it was also slow and steady. It's been retired since the start of 2014 and took about 2 years to reach 2xRRP. It's still going strong though with some selling for over €500 in a good box. I think these sets are unique and will always be in demand from people who appreciate quality design and have money to spend. I think it's safe to assume they won't be re-made any time soon either.

[Val-E]

11 minutes ago, tractorboy said:

Fallingwater, Farnsworth, Villa Savoye are all doing really well in EU. So I was a bit surprised this didn't see a jump post EOL. I think a lot of investors missed out on those first three, but got on board for IH when they saw the others do so well. Everybody saw it's retirement coming too, whereas the others went quietly. So gains will be a little slow for a while. I agree with mudcatsfan though, there will be enough people wanting this down the line to see it grow slowly but steadily once the herd thins.

Robie has been doing fine here too, but it was also slow and steady. It's been retired since the start of 2014 and took about 2 years to reach 2xRRP. It's still going strong though with some selling for over €500 in a good box. I think these sets are unique and will always be in demand from people who appreciate quality design and have money to spend. I think it's safe to assume they won't be re-made any time soon either.

Hmm, maybe not remade to the same scale but the Architecture line is becoming more and more like City (BB,SOH, BK) not to mention the cityscapes using previous buildings. I agree with you about the advance warning, though. That BF sale in the US had everyone on guard whereas Villa Savoye went C2C and retired rather unexpectedly.

[tractorboy]

7 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Hmm, maybe not remade to the same scale but the Architecture line is becoming more and more like City (BB,SOH, BK) not to mention the cityscapes using previous buildings. I agree with you about the advance warning, though. That BF sale in the US had everyone on guard whereas Villa Savoye went C2C and retired rather unexpectedly.

IH is part of an 'Architect series' too, so it's not a bog standard architecture set. Those aren't national landmarks like Big Ben or Sydney Opera House. Even a smaller scale IH (which I think is very unlikely and would be completely pointless) isn't going to satisfy those who want the proper set. It may end up being the only Architect series too, unless Lego do another.

[Val-E]

1 hour ago, tractorboy said:

IH is part of an 'Architect series' too, so it's not a bog standard architecture set. Those aren't national landmarks like Big Ben or Sydney Opera House. Even a smaller scale IH (which I think is very unlikely and would be completely pointless) isn't going to satisfy those who want the proper set. It may end up being the only Architect series too, unless Lego do another.

True, but it´s apparent that this set does not have anything like the popularity of the other FLW ones. I´m a believer that demand during shelf life indicates future demand (and values). I fear that too many of this set made it into resellers´ hands vs the real demand for it - see AA, Benny´s, Sopwith Camel and others.