When to unload inventory

[Baseace]

I am trying to figure out the best time to begin selling some of my inventory. I have investments in several series that are not projected to be long-term winners: Legends of Chima, Galaxy Squad, Lone Ranger, Monster Fighters, & Ninjago; but I also have investments in some projected winners: Star Wars, City, LOTR/Hobbit, Architecture, Marvel Super Heroes, Friends, and Duplo.

 

For the most part I only buy sets when I can get a 50+% discount (although I have paid closer to retail on some sets I am willing to  gambe on: SSD, B-Wing, UCS X-Wing, and considering some GE and or SopwithCamel). For the most part my collection is worth more than I have invested in it right now. I am just trying to figure out when to "hold em and when to fold em." (Nothing like a great gambler reference).

 

I would appreciate any advice about investments and when hold vs when to sell.

 

Have an awesome day!

 

 

[jaisonline]

hi,

 

there have been plenty of posts about this but still, these threads are not always easy to find when searching.

 

i have a few general comments.

-50% off MSRP are sorta rare for lego sets.  30% off non-exclusives is a quality discount. 

-non-exclusives aren't discounted anymore so you need to make your own savings (Amazon points, VIP promo, etc...)

-i like to hold onto my sets for 2-3 years after retirement to max ROI.  there are exceptions though like if you are a flipper (think Minecraft in Nov/Dec 2012 and The Dolphin Crusier in Nov/Dec 2013). 

      - another is if the set is getting refreshed sooner than expected (e.g. the 1st Hulk set released in 2012)

-some sets like from Harry Potter makes sense to hold for 3 years or more since demand will still exist and no refreshes are planned.  These sets continue to gain each year but just not at the higher %s like the first 2 years.  Batman 7888 is another example.

[Baseace]

Thanks Jaisonline! I love that 7888 I have been playing around with the idea of putting a tumbler set together on my own, or build a Tumbler UCS-type of my own. It is such a cool vehicle.

 

I do wonder if my current collection is really built for long-term investment (other than the LOTR, Star Wars, Arch, & Marvel).

[comicblast]

I am trying to figure out the best time to begin selling some of my inventory. I have investments in several series that are not projected to be long-term winners: Legends of Chima, Galaxy Squad, Lone Ranger, Monster Fighters, & Ninjago; but I also have investments in some projected winners: Star Wars, City, LOTR/Hobbit, Architecture, Marvel Super Heroes, Friends, and Duplo.

I'm not sure that Duplo is a "projected winner". Maybe mediocre, at best, IMHO.

 

For all the sets you buy, you should set a goal of what you think realistically the set can reach. For example, I think that the UCS B-Wing can easily get to $300 once the quick flippers finish their inventory, so that is when I intend on selling. If it is approaching $300, and still is climbing higher, wait until it begins to plateau. This method varies case by case, set to set, and investor to investor, so I can't really dictate when you sell or how long you hold.

[c666187]

I would suggest unloading your inventory just before your wife states that she wants a divorce!  

[glenbart]

If your thinking about selling now, probably worth waiting For christmas, end of septemberOctober is when you can start to see people spending more and shifting sets quicker and better prices, good time to start thinking about tactics.

[jaylay]

IMO, unload when youre satisfied with the return you will get, minus the fees and shipping.

[MartinP]

IMO, unload when you're satisfied with the return you will get, minus the fees and shipping.

That is what I do. Sometimes, I have to unload certain sets earlier than I want to because I need the money for other things. I still make a good profit, but not as much as I wanted to in the beginning.

[wilandirene]

I personally bunch my sets into short (0-6 months), medium (1-2 years) and long (2+ years) term categories.  That way I have a balanced approach and steady cash flow.  I'd love to hold everything I have for 2+ years but realistically I'm not made of money.  Another thing I've done is buy, say, 6 sets of something.  I'll sell the first 4 at a lower profit margin, and use those profits to freeroll the last 2 sets. 

[terrymc4677]

I would suggest unloading your inventory just before your wife states that she wants a divorce!  

Actually, keep the sets, then after the divorce is finalized and the ex wife comes looking for her "half", unload the chima, galaxy squad, Lone Ranger, and ninjago on her. Let her deal with them. I'd keep the monster fighters for yourself.

[terrymc4677]

I plan on dumping all of my ninjago and chima this Christmas season. It's not that I'm unhappy with them (all were bought at good discounts), but I don't look at these themes as long term holds. Once the cartoons have come and gone and the kids who watched them have moved onto something else or entered their dark age I don't see these themes providing good returns. I'd rather take the money invested in these themes and put it into exclusives.

[Noodlenut]

Hold on all the ones you are not sure about.  A lot of the ones you mentioned are not so bad.  I'd be more anxious to unload some of the Duplo, unless they are very large sets.

[Ciglione]

What I do is I do my weekly check where my sets are pricewise on for example ebay or my local craigslist. I am also in dubio on selling some duds or keeping them. If I sell them in the last months of the year would be the best. Sales are slow in the summer.