9474 - The Battle of Helm's Deep

[Quacs]

Kind of wish this thread would die. A bunch of these posts are just talking about whether or not someone was mean to someone else. I am investing in VCs. If someone thinks it is dumb I want to hear their opinion and I will take it all with a grain a salt. If someone thinks it is smart to invest in VCs I will take that with a grain of salt as well. But either way I only value any of your opinions as much as I value the random stranger anywhere on the internet. Thanks.

 

You and me both...

[Ed Mack]

Bottom line is that both sets(VC and HD) are quality investments and people need to buy them now before they go bye-bye very soon.  Timing EOL is getting harder to do with the new LEGO policies, so if you want to invest in a set, prudence dictates pulling the trigger sooner than later IMO.  Many of the disputes on this site are about EOL dates, which are completely unknown to most non LEGO execs, so the discussions are comical at times.  If you snooze, you lose.  

[Diabolos80]

For sure, Ed. Case in point: I didn't buy any Batcaves when they were on sale. So now I've had to buy 2 at full retail. If you want a set, it's 18+ months old, and it's on sale, buy it now.

[BrickPick3r]

The VC is officially labeled as retired on the aussie/nz and 2nd tier euro LEGO Shop at Home sites. It does not get more concrete than that. Keep an eye on those sites as TLG always retires product there first and gives a nice big heads up to US investors. Once a set is labeled as retired it is done for good and whatever is left in the wild is it, no exceptions. Sold out means just that, temporarily sold out. Retiring soon means retiring sometime within the next 6 mos - 5 years lol. Until the label changes to "retired product" somewhere on the planet there is nothing concrete, although next years wholesale catalog is always a very good indicator.

You can't find it at AUS LEGO Shop at Home. But there are plenty of them, even at cheaper than retail price, at Kmart.

 

 

 

Edit: Don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to say that it's not a good investment. I'll also buy it at retail. Love the set!! 

[kingleonidas]

if you were even prepared to get into this , there is always some guesswork involved. Yes the set might not EOL within a few months after you bought it but as long as you bought it at a good price that you are comfortable with, its still a good purchase. 

[TheOrcKing]

It's ain't gone until the fat lady (and Emazers) sings!

[Alcarin]

Well I think when they talk about EOL dates they are referencing hard relevant data  - in that this is how most sets have acted and performed in the past. The Conspiracy theories are backed by nothing. So thats the difference, right?

 

I mean, not saying some of them don't have some possible merit, but they sure as hell don't stack up to all of the different Lego sets we have seen do exactly this and then retire.

 

And which HARD relevant data that is.... the common consensus used to be that sets retire about 2 years after shelf time.... how many sets broke that ''HARD, relevant data'' ?

 

old data means little if anything at all.... the actual data that can be used is now those from FB eventually and later release dates....  

 

 

 

 

You're a smart guy, how can you continue to miss the forest for the trees here?

Let me recap: Treme claimed he had 'proof' of a conspiracy, going as far as saying his little "story" wasn't a theory because HE HAD EVIDENCE. Then he went on to yap about some "new display" that no one else has seen, pointed to sets that were "Out of Stock" coming back, and gave us Battle of Endor set's retirement as a checklist that pointed to some vast TLG conspiracy.

Through his little travel through conspiracy-land, he managed to make some patronizing comments. I called him out on both his claims of evidence and his comments I took exception to.

The common consensus of VC (and the entire MF theme) and HD retirement is that they're going this year. This is backed by a number of actual, tried and true indicators including emazers wholesale report, EOL designations in NZ/Aus, and dwindling inventory at almost all retailers. Did I say it was guaranteed these were done? NO. Could it last another year? While anything is possible, it was Treme who claimed he had evidence to the contrary - that's why I asked for it.

Why are you trying to defend this guy? Because some members not involved in this conversation took exception to a post you made four months ago that turned out to be right and that you've already gloated over? Get over it.

For the record, I have never attacked you and I didn't attack Treme. I called him out on some unfounded proclamations and his patronizing comments. If you have an issue with other members of the "community", address it with them. Until then, I suggest you stop playing Robin Hood for members that don't need or deserve it.

 

 

The point i made was neither you nor him can know what will happen, both are speculations with not much 100% proof.... even if HD and VC retire they might very well continue to be in stock on LEGO Shop at Home .... that would make any emazers data we get pissed over for giggles and stuff because it would mean 0 ))

 

So the only way to see who is right is to wait and see actually...  the guys patronizing commens could just be edited ... 

 

 

I did not mean to insult you at all, just pointing out neither of us has ANY HARD RELEVANT DATA to point out... we just hope emazers data is relevant because it was so far.

[Fcbarcelona101]

I did not mean to insult you at all, just pointing out neither of us has ANY HARD RELEVANT DATA to point out... we just hope emazers data is relevant because it was so far.

 

Not all of his info has been either.

 

Plus, the sets being marked as Retired in other countries' sites is a pretty concrete piece of evidence that they may be going out everywhere. Is it 100%? of course not, but evidence does not need to be 100% correct to be considered as Hard or Relevant.

[Ed Mack]

I have seen the LEGO ordering forms that emazers refers to and they give an approximate EOL date.  There can be A LOT of wiggle room with these proposed EOLs.  As I stated earlier, if there is a decent deal on a set, pull the trigger.  Gone are the days of 30% off or more on above average investment sets, unless you have some kind of coupon situation.

[Miami Bomb Squad]

I really don't understand why people need to time it perfectly to the last month or so.
Its ok to try and time it if your buying 1 or 2 sets, but if your an investor, you have somewhat of an internal eol clock.
Buy on dips and just keep buying.  There is no Perfect timing!

Buy and Hold, this is the formula.

My internal clock is telling me to get HD,TB, FB and VC.  (That sound kinda Nasty)  
 

[Alcarin]

I really don't understand why people need to time it perfectly to the last month or so.

Its ok to try and time it if your buying 1 or 2 sets, but if your an investor, you have somewhat of an internal eol clock.

Buy on dips and just keep buying.  There is no Perfect timing!

Buy and Hold, this is the formula.

My internal clock is telling me to get HD,TB, FB and VC.  (That sound kinda Nasty)  

 

 

 

because if you buy a set a week after it comes out for 30% off you scored a discount but holding a set for 3 years + to gain returns is bad money management!

 

For me atleast.

[Ed Mack]

I really don't understand why people need to time it perfectly to the last month or so.

Its ok to try and time it if your buying 1 or 2 sets, but if your an investor, you have somewhat of an internal eol clock.

Buy on dips and just keep buying.  There is no Perfect timing!

Buy and Hold, this is the formula.

My internal clock is telling me to get HD,TB, FB and VC.  (That sound kinda Nasty)  

 

EOL is an overrated metric in most situations.  Unless you have extremely limited space or an extremely limited budget, several months here or there is not going to matter in the long run.  I think many investors never let sets mature, flipping them way too early.  LEGO investing is like wine making...it takes time to maximize the product and profit.

[Bold-Arrow]

My internal clock is telling me to get HD,TB, FB and VC.  (That sound kinda Nasty)  

 

 

Atleast you dont have an SSD

[binici]

Atleast you dont have an SSD

 

Or DS???

[Ed Mack]

Or DS???

Many of us long term investors bought our SSDs and DSs for $300 or less over a year ago.  You will never see that price again.  

[Guest TabbyBoy]

LOL. Must be if Morpheus says so.

[Sozial]

Amazon.co.uk just restocked to 958 pcs. Will it be the last time?

[BrickPick3r]

Amazon.co.uk just restocked to 958 pcs. Will it be the last time?

How to check the amount of available stock on Amazon?

[Coneil21]

How to check the amount of available stock on Amazon?

If you put 999 in for quantity it will refeesh to the amount left in stock

[BrickPick3r]

If you put 999 in for quantity it will refeesh to the amount left in stock

Thanks

[kingleonidas]

what the heck...

[Bernard74]

Still at "available now" status at Lego LEGO Shop at Home in the Netherlands.

 

Shelob attack is sold out though and Gandalf Arrives, Orc Forge and Attack on Weathertop are not listed on the site anymore.

[chipbee]

Still at "available now" status at Lego LEGO Shop at Home in the Netherlands.

 

Shelob attack is sold out though and Gandalf Arrives, Orc Forge and Attack on Weathertop are not listed on the site anymore.

Orc Forge, Weathertop and Gandalf Arrives are listed as retired on Germany and Australia LEGO Shop at Home websites.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

Just a little more patience needed I think. We also need to wait for the novice sellers to offload theirs before the value increases further.

[pins79]

Retired! Looks like S/**** updated a lot of their "sold out" products, to "retired" status including Helm's Deep, Urukhai army, 6868, 41999, and a few MF sets.