9474 - The Battle of Helm's Deep

[comicblast]

Not in 2014 Wholesale catalog.

How did you get your hands on one of those, Sauromosis?

[@rtisan]

How did you get your hands on one of those, Sauromosis?

I believe Emazers posted about this. I`ll have to see if I can find the thread though, but I`m sure of it. 

[Sauromosis]

Yes that is what I'm refrencing. I can't help but wonder if vampyre castle is on that form.

[emazers]

Helm's Deep is done, I been posting this since January, even though the Wholesale sheet said Spring only, Pretty sure Lego was making these 24/7 and made plenty of them to last the whole year or so. just like last year with the Potter 4842 Castle and the POTC 2 Ships and the Potter Diagon Alley all these were still available at retail or cheaper until the end of the year or early 2013. "All The Monster Fighters are Done to, Except The Haunted House"

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

Hope so. I haven't been in the game long but I would like to start seeing some more of my items appreciating. I got 7 helms deeps ready to make me some good money.

[kingleonidas]

this set still seems pretty easy to get 

[Spartikis]

this set still seems pretty easy to get 

well its only been retired for less than a month, its still available in many big box retail stores but the supplies are dwindling fast. Prices will stay cheap until big retailers are out, once people have to go to the after market for the set prices sky rocket.

[Veegs]

This is very reminiscent of the last Harry Potter castle and the Black Pearl...at least to me.  Last year at this time, deals could still be found for a savvy shopper, but between Oct. and Jan. supply dried up and prices took a nice jump (even with the Pearl market being flooded with Black Friday sets).

 

Sets like HD and VC that are on the cusp between widely available and very hard to find are ones I like to target. 

[Miami Bomb Squad]

Sets like HD and VC that are on the cusp between widely available and very hard to find are ones I like to target. 

 

Bullseye!

These 2 sets are excellent ROI.  

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

Yeah the Vampyre castle was readily available up until last month or so. All of a sudden, they are going on ebay for $110 or so. Saw a price increase from about 80$ to $110 in 2 months.

[kingleonidas]

how many of the HD are you guys intending to keep? I have about 5 currently 

[c666187]

how many of the HD are you guys intending to keep? I have about 5 currently 

 

I have 16 sets of HD and Urk Hai Army stashed away...

 

[kingleonidas]

i am wondering if the army or the orc forge is a better set to keep 

[c666187]

i am wondering if the army or the orc forge is a better set to keep 

 

If you are keeping Helms Deep you should keep at least one UK Army set with it since it actually extends the castle wall and will be a nice bundle to sell together..  Orc Forge is completely separate, but pairs nice with the Tower of Orthanc. I am keeping 30 Orc Forges..

[Miami Bomb Squad]

VC is available again. (I cant believe it)
If Helm's Deep becomes available again thru LEGO Shop at Home, then we are in for yet another wild ride.

[Diabolos80]

I VC & HD aren't retired come Jan, I'll find something else to do with my money. I'll still buy to build, but no more investing.

[Miami Bomb Squad]

That may be Lego's Marketing Plan, trying to frustrate the Investors.  
All along they have plenty of inventory, just changing up the status bar from time to time.
Dangling the carrots.

[emazers]

This is the same thing that happened last year with the Harry Potter Castle & The Diagon Alley, Black Pearl and Queen Revenge, there were plenty around still around at Christmas, and all these sets had being made until spring 2012, and were not on the 2013 Wholesale Catalog, so Lego made sure these sets would be available for people to buy for the Holidays, and don't forget about the Imperial Shuttle and the Space Shuttle both of these were still for sale at Christmas and then they retired. Like I said plenty of times before Lego was making these sets 24/7, so all you guys that are worried that The Helm's Deep and VC are not retiring well they are.

[Spartikis]

I VC & HD aren't retired come Jan, I'll find something else to do with my money. I'll still buy to build, but no more investing.

 

Ive got several side businesses and alternative investments and im just going to be honest and say investing in LEGO, is hands down the most lucrative of all of them. It does require a great deal of capital, storage space but most importantly patience. The first year or two is hard as you keep buying sets and nothing is retiring and even the ones that do retire dont instantly go up in value like we all hope they do. But give it time it will pay off in the end. Im just now starting tp make profit from this venture, my POTC ships, emerald nights, imperial flagships, imperial shuttles, etc... are all producing nice returns and their sales are funding additional LEGO investments, but 1 year ago i was still second guessing my decision to invest in LEGO, thats certainly not the case now, in fact im kicking my self for not having bought more of those earlier sets. As a result im going big on this second round of investing. Already numerous of my LOTR sets are seeing great returns, Orc Forge is probably the best out of all of them so far but im certain HD is going to be a winner, remember HD has been retired for about 1-2 month, in 1-2 years it will easily being selling for $200+, even after fees and shipping thats a 100% profit. Also, dont forget to diversify your collection, dont go all in on one set or series, you dont want to end up with 50 death stars.

[Diabolos80]

Yeah it is frustrating for sure. I started buying in Jan knowing full well that I wouldn't see returns for at least a year. And I know plenty of guys here say it's normal for sets to pop in & out of stock before retirement... But it's damn near Dec and I'm getting antsy what with all our talks about TLG trying to mess with our heads.

Hopefully come next Dec i'll be kicking myself, too. Maybe just a couple more HDs...

[Miami Bomb Squad]

certainly not the case now, in fact im kicking my self for not having bought more of those earlier sets. As a result im going big on this second round of investing.

Man do I hear you, however, has the tide turned?

Just like many investment ventures, You go in and turn some profit, then you get greedy (should of double down), so you turn up the capital, Just like your scenario and many others.

And then Bam,  Something happens and all your investment goes flat. 

 

Im like on the verge of throwing down another chunk, because I see future Legos sale are going to get larger and larger and the sets that we acquire nowadays will be mint.

I have also come to a conclusion that You can't really loose in Legos (well, yes, only time).  I mean, the worst case scenario is that you get your money back!

Im sure I can sell HD in two years time for $140.

[Treme]

You guys are missing something very important about the VC and the entire monster fighters line. Yes, we all know the wholesale catlog said spring only, but if these sets are staying as a TRU exclusive now, then they would not be in the retailer catalog anyway much like the Exclusives aren't in there. Other retailers can't order them in the same way then can't order the funhouse, another TRU exclusive.

 

There is precident for this -- in December 2010 the 8038 Battle of Endor set was clearanced at all retailers, even LEGO Shop at Home, and leading into Christmas it vanished everywhere except TRU - even LEGO Shop at Home. In January 2011, TRU began marketing the set as a TRU exclusive and the set stayed in production and stocked there for another whole year before being wiped out during Christmas 2011 rush.

 

Bottom line... if the VC or HD stay as TRU exclusives, you all played your hands very badly based on past trends that can change. LEGO reads these forums and I'm sure they know what you're "investing" in, and frankly, if I worked for them and didn't like investing, I'd totally mess with investors by doing something like this.

[@rtisan]

You guys are missing something very important about the VC and the entitre monster fighters line. Yes, we all know the wholesale catlog said spring only, but if these sets are staying as a TRU exclusive now, then they would not be in the retailer catalog anyway much like the Exclusives aren't in there. Other retailers can't order them in the same way then can't order the funhouse, another TRU exclusive.

 

There is precident for this -- in December 2010 the 8038 Battle of Endor set was clearanced all retailers, even LEGO Shop at Home, and leading into Christmas it vanished everywhere except TRU - even LEGO Shop at Home. In January 2011, TRU began marketing it the set as a TRU exclusive and the set stayed in production and stocked there for another whole year before being wiped out during Christmas 2011 rush.

 

Bottom line... if the VC or HD stay as TRU exclusives, you all played your hands very badly based on past trends that can change. LEGO reads these forums and I'm sure they know what you're "investing" in, and frankly, if i worked for them and didn't like investing, I'd totally mess with investors by doing something like this.

The last part of your post is really what caught my eye. Lego absolutely is reading this forum and others relating to Lego deals/hobbyist sites. Anyone who does`t think this needs to think again. We are essentially the secondary market, investors that is. We represent what happens to Lego`s product after they have decided not to distribute/sell for themselves. Of course they want to gain every bit of info possible! Responding to the latter part of your post, those who expected an immediate gain off of this set in a short period of time are wrong. HD is a great set, most every Lord of the Rings fan with capital will want it. Everyone collector of the theme will want it, obviously. That creates a huge pool of buyers, which as we`ve seen, has also created a large pool of people like us trying to capitalize on this.

 

Now, of course I don`t know the actual numbers, but I`m willing to bet that Lego makes the majority (if not, a very substantial portion) of their money from their deals with Walmart, Target, Kmart, Amazon, Argos, ToysRUs, etc. For them to update their catalog by removing a set and keeping available through other distributors still brings money. Lots of it. The move they appear to have played here is to start a panic buy amongst investors by retiring the set on the official site. This has, as we`ve seen lead to more sales for distributors. Now they pull the certain down to reveal that many are still going to be carrying the set, even though they won`t. And of course, we have all bought in and been played. Market value will not go as we hope until Helm`s Deep and other sets are gone. As long as it is available and retail price, Market value stays low, and they`ve gotten our money, and we are left with sets worth little more/if anything then what we paid. Exact same thing with Orc Forge coming back this week. And VC if it decides to linger around longer. Congrats guys, it appears we`ve been played   

[Treme]

Exactly. And it should be noted that this process kills two birds with one stone. As you said, this creates a nice purge of old stock for other retail outlets, but long term it helps quell the investing frenzy TLG is so opposed to. After all, if all your capital is tied up in sets that are now TRU exclusives, how can you use the capital to invest in future themes? You can't, because in a compeition between you selling a product to a consumer and TRU selling it, you will lose and TRU will get the sale. TRU knows this, LEGO knows it, and just maybe that's why TRU agreed to jump on board. They can essentially become a LEGO reseller when all other outlets have their stocks purged  -- they have the extra floor space whereas Target and Walmart do not and have to keep stocks fresh with new product.

 

Meaning, if Monster Fighters stays another year as a TRU exclusive... total game change

[Quacs]

You guys are missing something very important about the VC and the entire monster fighters line. Yes, we all know the wholesale catlog said spring only, but if these sets are staying as a TRU exclusive now, then they would not be in the retailer catalog anyway much like the Exclusives aren't in there. Other retailers can't order them in the same way then can't order the funhouse, another TRU exclusive.

 

There is precident for this -- in December 2010 the 8038 Battle of Endor set was clearanced at all retailers, even S@H, and leading into Christmas it vanished everywhere except TRU - even S@H. In January 2011, TRU began marketing the set as a TRU exclusive and the set stayed in production and stocked there for another whole year before being wiped out during Christmas 2011 rush.

 

Bottom line... if the VC or HD stay as TRU exclusives, you all played your hands very badly based on past trends that can change. LEGO reads these forums and I'm sure they know what you're "investing" in, and frankly, if I worked for them and didn't like investing, I'd totally mess with investors by doing something like this.

 

Please enlighten us on how investors "played our hands very badly".  Per your scenario, the worst that investors would face is holding these sets another year.  The best case scenario is that they're gone and appreciating.

 

If you feel this forum shouldn't exist because it broadcasts investor strategies to TLG, would you rather the forum close and no discussion occur?

 

Besides, I doubt TRU would agree to do this for an entire theme.  TRU would have to agree to carry a two year old theme for another year (at least), and guess what sets sell the slowest?  Ones that have been available for 2+ years!  Even if they suddenly become exclusives, they've still been out a long time.  Additionally, TLC has never done this with sets from two different themes.  Could they?  Sure.  Would they?  I doubt TRU would ever agree to it.

 

 

Now, of course I don`t know the actual numbers, but I`m willing to bet that Lego makes the majority (if not, a very substantial portion) of their money from their deals with Walmart, Target, Kmart, Amazon, Argos, ToysRUs, etc. For them to update their catalog by removing a set and keeping available through other distributors still brings money. Lots of it. The move they appear to have played here is to start a panic buy amongst investors by retiring the set on the official site. This has, as we`ve seen lead to more sales for distributors. Now they pull the certain down to reveal that many are still going to be carrying the set, even though they won`t. And of course, we have all bought in and been played. Market value will not go as we hope until Helm`s Deep and other sets are gone. As long as it is available and retail price, Market value stays low, and they`ve gotten our money, and we are left with sets worth little more/if anything then what we paid. Exact same thing with Orc Forge coming back this week. And VC if it decides to linger around longer. Congrats guys, it appears we`ve been played   

 

Seriously, people.  Stop with the conspiracy theories.  It's ridiculous that people lose their heads or "think they've been played" every time TLG brings something back from "Out of Stock".  The term "Out of Stock" by its very nature indicates more will probably come.  Eventually, all sets retire (yes even the Death Stare will eventually retire) - these are no different.  Plenty of reputable investors have already shared with the forum that THIS IS THE WAY THINGS RETIRE.  Get used to it.