9474 - The Battle of Helm's Deep

[Alpinemaps]

Out of all sets I've purchased over the years, this one is probably the most surprising. Hard to believe it's only up 40-50% after a couple years. After fees and taxes that leaves very little on the table. I would have thought this would be pushing $250 by now. It's a terrific set.

There were some good discounts on this set that takes the sting out. I sold off my stock on this because I was unimpressed with its performance and wanted to reinvest. I did pretty good but not nearly what I thought we'd see on it by now.

[Locutus001]

 

There were some good discounts on this set that takes the sting out. I sold off my stock on this because I was unimpressed with its performance and wanted to reinvest. I did pretty good but not nearly what I thought we'd see on it by now.

 

 

I sold mine too and made some nice profit. But I also would have thought that this set in particular would perform better.

Edited October 11, 2015 by Locutus001

[CNH1974]

In the UK some are going for £150-60, I've just checked the sold listings, but most are around the £140 mark. This set has actually gone down inthe last few months.  

I was hoping it may have hit the £200 mark by now so I can double the amount I paid after fees. I'll hold for another year. 

[Locutus001]

In the UK some are going for £150-60, I've just checked the sold listings, but most are around the £140 mark. This set has actually gone down inthe last few months.  

I was hoping it may have hit the £200 mark by now so I can double the amount I paid after fees. I'll hold for another year. 

Well that's one way to do it! Only question is whether you'll make more profit selling it now and reinvesting or holding it for another year.

Depending on your storage space both might be a good idea ^.^

[Ciglione]

When I look at Ebay Germany the cheapest is now 220 euro BIN. But there are still quite a few available. When you check the price guide it shows more than 1 page of them. Once it will be half a page it will get interesting. So we just have to wait for supply to dry out. Next year maybe it will hit a value that will make everyone happy. 

[JRandall]

If you check the sold listings on Ebay these are still selling frequently and I think in another year we'll see a bigger price jump above $200 as most of them are being cleared out and opened. I assume because of the quality of the build and the iconic setting and characters this set will eventually reach $400 in another 2-3 years and most of them disappear and the fans of the movie and books keep looking to have display pieces.  This is something that other regular themes such as city and creator don't have going for them.

Edited December 29, 2015 by JRandall

[inversion]

This is a pretty good performance, considering that they were throwing them out discounted for chump change. 

[fossilrock]

I only see good things from the hobbit/lotr line in the future now that this theme is gone.. 

I've managed to acquire almost all of the hobbit/lotr sets at discounts, and i'm glad I did.  This year, my son and I are working on a moc of various middle earth dioramas that combines a bunch of sets into a bigger playset.  We figure, now that we have all the sets, it's time to build middle earth (using modular techinques built on baseplates).. and so now begins that project.  Regardless, as more sets get opened up, these become rarer and more unique to have.  It almost made me a little sad when I saw the last of the sets go oos online over the holiday selling season.

[zskid00]

I was sad to see this theme go without some of the major characters from LOTR such as Faramir, Denethor, Eowyn, and the Witch King (non-ghost form) getting the minifigure treatment and a lack of anything from Osgiliath, Gondor, or Pelennor Fields (other than the Pirate Ship Ambush).  I would have taken 3-4 more LOTR sets in place of some of the Hobbit sets that we did get, but the writing was on the wall by early 2014 that it wasn't meant to be.

[seapotato]

Ahh I would have loved a Faramir and Eowyn minifig. I was really sad to see this theme end too. It was my favourite!

[fossilrock]

4 hours ago, zskid00 said:

I was sad to see this theme go without some of the major characters from LOTR such as Faramir, Denethor, Eowyn, and the Witch King (non-ghost form) getting the minifigure treatment and a lack of anything from Osgiliath, Gondor, or Pelennor Fields (other than the Pirate Ship Ambush).  I would have taken 3-4 more LOTR sets in place of some of the Hobbit sets that we did get, but the writing was on the wall by early 2014 that it wasn't meant to be.

The one ringwraith that I saw in a moc that was submitted to the ideas site was quite awesome.  I wish they would have made a ringwraith just like in that moc and priced it at 19.99.  That to me is one of the big missing pieces.  Also a few more Ent's priced around that price point would have been cool too.

I can kind of see their philosophy on not going very far on the larger sets.  They basically gave us one exclusive in the Tower of Orthanc, .  Many of those things like Minas Tirith, Barad Dor would have been another UCS style exclusive like the Tower of Orthanc, and i'm sure lego didn't want to create more than 1 exclusive for this theme, although they probably should have made 4 or 5 as far as i'm concerned.  But ohh well, what they did give us was pretty awesome, and I personally like every set in the theme.   It was obvious for sets like Lonely Mountain, Mirkwood Elf Army/Barrel Escape, Council of Elrond, and the Goblin King, lego gave the base designs of the environment, and the "afol's" were meant to take it from there if they wanted to make an even more authentic moc out of it. .  Those sets are actually great for moc's.  Almost the entire theme is and that's another reason why I think this theme has long term legs..

 

[jaisonline]

On 10/10/2015 at 6:57 PM, Alpinemaps said:

There were some good discounts on this set that takes the sting out. I sold off my stock on this because I was unimpressed with its performance and wanted to reinvest. I did pretty good but not nearly what I thought we'd see on it by now.

looks like you made a wise decision in Oct 2015.   then again, pretty much the entire LOTR and Hobbit themes have been disappointing. it's sad also as the the majority of sets (including 9474) are designed pretty well.
 

i'm starting to sell some of my 9474s and the appreciation since Oct 2015 has pretty much stalled.

[exciter1]

looks like you made a wise decision in Oct 2015.   then again, pretty much the entire LOTR and Hobbit themes have been disappointing. it's sad also as the the majority of sets (including 9474) are designed pretty well.
 
i'm starting to sell some of my 9474s and the appreciation since Oct 2015 has pretty much stalled.

I FBA'd mine late Summer 2015 for $240 each, glad I did.

[Alpinemaps]

33 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

looks like you made a wise decision in Oct 2015.   then again, pretty much the entire LOTR and Hobbit themes have been disappointing. it's sad also as the the majority of sets (including 9474) are designed pretty well.
 

i'm starting to sell some of my 9474s and the appreciation since Oct 2015 has pretty much stalled.

It's a great set, well designed.  It's a shame it hasn't appreciated since then.  @exciter1 did much better than me.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

The ToO was yet another disappointment in the theme.

[beatpoppa]

LOTR Legos are like a passion project... I own far more of this set & this theme than I should... mostly because I personally would have pulled a contract hit to get these when I was age 9 thru 11.   

My new fantasy outcome has The Silmarillion release helping my favorite Lego theme of all time finally get its due...

[Sandwraith]

1 hour ago, beatpoppa said:

LOTR Legos are like a passion project... I own far more of this set & this theme than I should... mostly because I personally would have pulled a contract hit to get these when I was age 9 thru 11.   

While i have no more LOTR sets left, this was also why i went so heavy on the theme. 9474 is still one of my all time favourite sets and one of the few i display.

When i was younger we played Warhammer, and a friend of mine had the Helms Deep... set? scenery piece? and we had a blast with it. If i had 9474 as a child? ohhhh mannnn, i can only imagine the fun my brothers and i would have had.

[Tgnmonster]

We just finished "excavating" my son's Helms Deep from the 20,000 lego we have in various bins around the house. I really love this set. So strange that it never shot higher than it did. Combined with the extra "wall" set, it makes for an impressive display.

Makes me want to secure a sealed one for the collection closet.

[Alcarin]

I sold all LOTR sets at decent profit.... bought in at around 30%-40% off and got solid returns.... usually around 80€ net after selling locally  On Helm's Deep etc...

 

Sadly LOTR line was not what I expected, still good returns if you bought at atleast 25% off.

[scatttcat]

New guy here;

I am actually actively chasing LOTR stuff, solely for personal collection. I would've loved to invest in them but wasn't in this game then.

Does anyone have any idea why a popular series, great mini figures, amazing lore, etc. DIDN'T retain as much value as other lines? Was it simply wrong generation? Lack of quality sets. 

 

Gf just bought me a Helms Deep set, cannot wait to build it

[beatpoppa]

They released playsets targeted at kids for movies that hadn't been in the theatre for 10 years.  Flopped.

Edited April 7, 2017 by beatpoppa

[Achilles]

33 minutes ago, scatttcat said:

New guy here;

I am actually actively chasing LOTR stuff, solely for personal collection. I would've loved to invest in them but wasn't in this game then.

Does anyone have any idea why a popular series, great mini figures, amazing lore, etc. DIDN'T retain as much value as other lines? Was it simply wrong generation? Lack of quality sets. 

 

Gf just bought me a Helms Deep set, cannot wait to build it

"Timing is everything". This line seemed to be in the spotlight right after the market "peaked" from my observation. Lord of the Rings theme is a very interesting one, and for no particularly good reason I'll toss in my 2 cents:

I think a lot of collectors/investors assumed this would be a slam dunk, as it seemed to target the market we covet - Geeky types with extra money.

I also think this theme retired RIGHT AROUND the time the "secret" about LEGO investing started getting out, which meant increasing competition and lower profits around the board. 

The line also gets a bit of a bad rep, since people expected to do SO WELL, anything less is considered a disappointment. But like many sets/themes, if you bought at 50% discount, every single set from the LOTR line (except for 79008 Pirate Ship Ambush) will at least double your money. And even 79008 should make someone a decent profit if purchased at 50%.  For some, it took 2-3 years instead of 1-2, but that is the new normal. I don't consider Helm's Deep or this line at all to be a loser. Not every set from every line is a winner. 

Similarly, The Hobbit line is full of mostly winners. Goblin King Battle and Mirkwood Spiders are the worst performers but will still make you money. Almost every other set will have doubled your buy in at 50% after 2-3 years. Not too shabby. 

This line really came and went at a turning point in LEGO investing, and in general, the profits have been lower and the time to achieve them has been higher since. The Tower of Orthanc also as the crown jewel, came out at a time where exclusives were no longer sure things and the profits weren't nearly worth the buy in and wait time. 

I put Monster Fighters and Haunted House in the same category, because these were great sets that have performed comparatively mediocre - when looking at the lines that retired the couples years before.

I don't regret a single dollar I invested in either of these two themes, and I think the sets from both are fantastic quality and builds. They are kind of the "Shark Jumpers" in the world of LEGO investing however, and will be associated with that downturn. The numbers/ease just won't ever be where they once were, and that sticks in a lot of folks craws.

 

[scatttcat]

44 minutes ago, Achilles said:

"Timing is everything". This line seemed to be in the spotlight right after the market "peaked" from my observation. Lord of the Rings theme is a very interesting one, and for no particularly good reason I'll toss in my 2 cents:

I think a lot of collectors/investors assumed this would be a slam dunk, as it seemed to target the market we covet - Geeky types with extra money.

I also think this theme retired RIGHT AROUND the time the "secret" about LEGO investing started getting out, which meant increasing competition and lower profits around the board. 

The line also gets a bit of a bad rep, since people expected to do SO WELL, anything less is considered a disappointment. But like many sets/themes, if you bought at 50% discount, every single set from the LOTR line (except for 79008 Pirate Ship Ambush) will at least double your money. And even 79008 should make someone a decent profit if purchased at 50%.  For some, it took 2-3 years instead of 1-2, but that is the new normal. I don't consider Helm's Deep or this line at all to be a loser. Not every set from every line is a winner. 

Similarly, The Hobbit line is full of mostly winners. Goblin King Battle and Mirkwood Spiders are the worst performers but will still make you money. Almost every other set will have doubled your buy in at 50% after 2-3 years. Not too shabby. 

This line really came and went at a turning point in LEGO investing, and in general, the profits have been lower and the time to achieve them has been higher since. The Tower of Orthanc also as the crown jewel, came out at a time where exclusives were no longer sure things and the profits weren't nearly worth the buy in and wait time. 

I put Monster Fighters and Haunted House in the same category, because these were great sets that have performed comparatively mediocre - when looking at the lines that retired the couples years before.

I don't regret a single dollar I invested in either of these two themes, and I think the sets from both are fantastic quality and builds. They are kind of the "Shark Jumpers" in the world of LEGO investing however, and will be associated with that downturn. The numbers/ease just won't ever be where they once were, and that sticks in a lot of folks craws.

 

Thank you, that was a very insightful opinion and definitely makes sense. Easily my favorite theme, so now I just got to figure out how to get some a decent prices as a buyer haha.

 

 

[Padolski]

Buying in now at $200 AUD (retail) - is that a stupid move or would you do it??

[jaisonline]

1 hour ago, Padolski said:

Buying in now at $200 AUD (retail) - is that a stupid move or would you do it??

buying to build?