9474 - The Battle of Helm's Deep

[Veegs]

After staying flat for most of last year, HD suddenly shot up in September.

 

It may hit the high

[tonysbricks]

LotR/Hobbit is my ebay 90 day #1 selling category, knocking off super heroes which has been #1 since the beginning. People who gave up and sold early on this theme are going to wish they hadn't.

[Sozial]

well not much more love for HD these days...still around the 200 Euro...

[iahawks550]

The fan base for this theme isn't going away. These sets will bring good money, it will just be slower growth than other themes.

[Darth_Raichu]

Not in the mood to bash today.  Let me just say I am sorry many members got this set at MSRP or higher

[Achilles]

This holiday season I think will be very telling for this theme. Remember, these have only been off of Shop At Home for apx a year and a half. They lingered at some TRUs past that. 

 

I am very curious to see how HD/Weathertop/Mines will do come this Christmas. Mind you, $200 on this set that most of us got at a discount is still pretty darn good, but I admit I expected this to be a $300 fetcher.

[trekgate502]

Not in the mood to bash today.  Let me just say I am sorry many members got this set at MSRP or higher

 

I had bought several of these at MSRP.  I love LOTR and Helm's Deep but I recently moved out all but one for me made 10% and called it a day.

The cash went into buying 50 Creative Tower's which I have almost finished turbo flipping and am very happy on the time return investment on it and will take the proceeds and plow into something else.

 

Sometimes you get the bear and sometimes the bear gets you.  (I am stocking up on ToO by the way)

 

For me the Kenny Rogers song know when to fold them was playing on the set and glad I did but to each their own

[exciter1]

Not in the mood to bash today.  Let me just say I am sorry many members got this set at MSRP or higher

 

Funny, I just got finished taking some pictures for new Helm's Deep listings.  I'm ready to dump a few.  I was lucky and got most of mine for under $80.  Thank you KMart.

[ravenb99]

I still buy them every time I see them at a Merlin store. $126 cost and it clears about $20-25 when they sell.  It sells in a good LOTR combo lot for me as well.

 

They sell quick enough that I don't mind buying them.  Missed a lot of 2012-2013 sets from my family stuff so still like to pick them up.

[Ciglione]

I am sorry but I do not understand people dumping this set. Give it a chance. It is not Lone Ranger. It shows growth.

[trekgate502]

I am sorry but I do not understand people dumping this set. Give it a chance. It is not Lone Ranger. It shows growth.

 

Think of it this way, we all pick our long term winners.

This is a good set and I could have waited it out, but it is no long term winner for me.  My R2 and TH is.

I decided to take funds from this as part of cash to buy up 50 Creative Tower's.

I am clearing at least $25 per creative tower. Yes I could sit on them till Christmas and make a lot more but I want the quick flip.

My buy in was about $31 each including tax.

So I spent $1,550, and two weeks later I am down to single digits remaining on the creative tower, should sell out this week, maybe today, and have made at least $1,250 on the $1,550 investment.

i wish I would have bought 200 of them looking back.

Now I can take the $2,700 ish and go plow it into something else.  Maybe more ToO or Red Five or something else.

The helms deep was not generating the type of return I wanted and while I love LOTR I just don't see this commanding the $ of the other sets long term.

There is no right or wrong.  Each has our own style.

But this was my reason to dump.

At the time I dumped I did not know the towers would come along but I knew something would and they did along with many other great finds I have been either turbo flipping or stashing away for the long haul.

Us dumping may make your long term hold even better for you I hope.

[Darth_Raichu]

I am sorry but I do not understand people dumping this set. Give it a chance. It is not Lone Ranger. It shows growth.

Shouldn't you be happy ?  People dumping now = less competition 1 year from now ?

[inversion]

I am sorry but I do not understand people dumping this set. Give it a chance. It is not Lone Ranger. It shows growth.

There is difference between growth and a good return. GDP can grow at 0.01% or 2.7%.   Both are growth. You don't have to stick with the low return.

[Ciglione]

Think of it this way, we all pick our long term winners.

This is a good set and I could have waited it out, but it is no long term winner for me.  My R2 and TH is.

I decided to take funds from this as part of cash to buy up 50 Creative Tower's.

I am clearing at least $25 per creative tower. Yes I could sit on them till Christmas and make a lot more but I want the quick flip.

My buy in was about $31 each including tax.

So I spent $1,550, and two weeks later I am down to single digits remaining on the creative tower, should sell out this week, maybe today, and have made at least $1,250 on the $1,550 investment.

i wish I would have bought 200 of them looking back.

Now I can take the $2,700 ish and go plow it into something else.  Maybe more ToO or Red Five or something else.

The helms deep was not generating the type of return I wanted and while I love LOTR I just don't see this commanding the $ of the other sets long term.

There is no right or wrong.  Each has our own style.

But this was my reason to dump.

At the time I dumped I did not know the towers would come along but I knew something would and they did along with many other great finds I have been either turbo flipping or stashing away for the long haul.

Us dumping may make your long term hold even better for you I hope.

 

I understand what you say. It makes sense. Everyone has his own strategy. But what if the next investment you do with the money from selling Helm's Deep is a dud? If it was Lone Ranger you were dumping I would not question it. This theme is a dud. But I sincerely cannot say Helm's Deep is a dud. I believe the most growth has yet to come. There are still quite many on ebay, amazon, etc.

[Ciglione]

Shouldn't you be happy ?  People dumping now = less competition 1 year from now ?

 

It is not about being happy or not. Offcourse the keepers can possibly take advantage from the early splitters. I just try to understand why people do what they do. Maybe I am wrong keeping mine for 2016.

[trekgate502]

I understand what you say. It makes sense. Everyone has his own strategy. But what if the next investment you do with the money from selling Helm's Deep is a dud? If it was Lone Ranger you were dumping I would not question it. This theme is a dud. But I sincerely cannot say Helm's Deep is a dud. I believe the most growth has yet to come. There are still quite many on ebay, amazon, etc.

 

All fair points.  Keep in mind I REALLY LIKE Helm's Deep and I consider it a castle, where many  wise people on BP consider it a brick wall of Lego.

But even my LOTR I got out of at cost and moved on.  So if my next set is a dud, then I can take my $2,700 sell it off, lets say lose $200 and I am still at $2,500 compared to sitting on $1,200 of slow moving investments.

 

It is all strategy there is no one size fits all.

 

If I had the cash I would keep everything for the long term but since that is not an option I make choices.

 

I can't say your wrong seriously.  It is just personal choices.

[Crustybeaver]

It's a valid point Trek. Everyone operates a different game plan. LOTR sets are slow burners but will continue to rise year after year because they are unique. It's highly unlikely they will ever rehash this line so chances are these sets will plateau higher. Super Heroes, Star Wars, City and Friends are all prone to remakes which can stump growth. LOTR fan base should ensure there is always demand for the sets.

[zskid00]

Still holding my LOTR sets a little longer.  I am a fan and holding out hope that once the theme is done people will miss it.  With Castle/Kingdom's gone for now we might see an increase in demand due to that.  This is all wishful thinking of course and at this point there are certainly better investments but I got some great discounts on this theme.

[matt1147]

I get loads of offers on my Helms - but not selling for less than $200 as I believe it will see some growth!

[Darth_Raichu]

It is not about being happy or not. Offcourse the keepers can possibly take advantage from the early splitters. I just try to understand why people do what they do. Maybe I am wrong keeping mine for 2016.

 

It did not live up to its hype, IMHO.  Anyone can do what they please, as always

[Crustybeaver]

It did not live up to its hype, IMHO. Anyone can do what they please, as always

If you're going to base your opinions on performance after only one year then I guess you must be getting disappointed in a frequent basis. I bought my Helms Deeps at a 25% discount. UK market has them selling at around double what I paid. If we assume that another year from now I'm clearing double ROI after fees then I consider that a good return. How many sets live up to the 'hype' and double inside months? TH, FB, erm got to admit I'm struggling now. Picking a portfolio of instant winners is a tall order. Increased interest in Lego investing coupled with counterfeiting is seeing profits more widespread and therefore harder to come by. LOTR as a theme is steady and the profits will be there if you're patient.

[CNH1974]

It's approx one year after EOL. And it regularly trades at 50% above RRP.

It's no modular, but it's not a gross bad return.

[fossilrock]

I tend to only invest in LOTR/Hobbit, Architecture, and some Star Wars.  I'm convinced this series is going to do well long term - key word is long term.  Most of the LOTR sets will definitely do better than most of the Hobbit sets, but both will fair well. Fact is that these sets like HD, Weathertop, Mines of Moria only started drying up in the retail stores around fall of last year.  Many that grabbed these expecting to make double the profit within months after a set gets scare are probably folding their cards too early.  Having something shoot up right away is not how it works in the collection market, unless it's some extremely hot fad, or some rare item that is very hard to find.  Most fads tend to crash, and I don't' see the LOTR/Hobbit as a fad - these movies have a huge built in following.  Let's not sugar coat it - they are big films, and this series has been out for over a decade.  The Lone Ranger film is not even on the same level - as that was a universally loathed film and I don't know many people that think that was a great movie.   That's not the case with the LOTR and Hobbit films.

I'm willing to sit on a majority of mine for a few years (more than 3 years). To me, this is just a hobby, and not a job, and i'm convinced that those that hold their cards will do well 3 to 4 years from now after many get out of the game and the sets become more distributed from resellers to consumers.  I have the space, and love LOTR and the Hobbit films - so i'm one of those that is convinced of the product..  When the ToO, and TLM goes, i'm not selling a single one of mine within the first couple of years after it goes off of the big retail sites, unless things really start to tank, and even then i'll be hesitant.  I think people will want a HD, and ToO to build many years from now, and I don't ever see many of these main sets falling below retail now that they are nearing the end.  It's amazing to me when I go on ebay and see 100's of listing on a certain set that just dried out in retail stores, and there's a plethora of pricing structures.  Because it has yet to become scarce, there are those that freak because it's not selling at double and triple what they want, so they end up posting it either at retail or barely above retail to get out.  And yet, the interesting thing is all the sets with the cheapest prices (mostly at what they retailed for) sell right away - so obviously the demand is there, the market is just resetting in this end of life era that has yet to fully set.  While many of them were bought at discount, to me making 20.00 is not worth it just yet.  I'm in the game for the long term, not the short term.  I'm going to hold my cards, because i'm convinced these films hold up, and there is a fan base, and these sets are pretty darn cool and fun.  ToO, TLM, HD, Weathertop, Mines of Moria, and Unexpected Gatherings are going to do well.  I personally, have spent my time and money stocking up on some of these sets over the red 5's and modulars, because I think long term they'll be the better bet.  While SW sets are re-released continuously, these sets will not.  There will be another UCS x-wing, and another UCS millennium falcon, etc.  The LOTR sets are more scarce.  Personally, I even think sets like Attack of the Wargs, Mirkwood Spiders, and the Dol Guldur sets have a lot of built in playability, and will also do well as an investment too.  My little boy has quite a few of the hobbit and LOTR sets, and he plays with them a bit. So, i'm not sure where all the skepticism comes from.  I think you will see HD go to 300.00.  It just won't be this year.  Next year? Well, it could.  Especially as many more sell off their horde.  Thats really what it comes down to -  sets becoming more scarce.  The paint hasn't truly dried on this line yet.

[Darth_Raichu]

If you're going to base your opinions on performance after only one year then I guess you must be getting disappointed in a frequent basis. I bought my Helms Deeps at a 25% discount. UK market has them selling at around double what I paid. If we assume that another year from now I'm clearing double ROI after fees then I consider that a good return. How many sets live up to the 'hype' and double inside months? TH, FB, erm got to admit I'm struggling now. Picking a portfolio of instant winners is a tall order. Increased interest in Lego investing coupled with counterfeiting is seeing profits more widespread and therefore harder to come by. LOTR as a theme is steady and the profits will be there if you're patient.

You loose some you win some. At least I do not have to wait 2 years to figure out which are the losers.

HD was mentioned in the same breath as FB, GE, SSD, BP, QAR, etc sets of its time. Go back and check out emazers posts from last year. Why not measure its performance based on those sets as well ?

Again, the long time holders should CHEER when others dropping off the race.

ETA: I am in no way urging anyone to sell or hold. Everyone should based their decisions on their own situations.

Edited March 9, 2015 by Darth_Raichu

[Ciglione]

Sometimes I wish their is a little bit less CHEER about a set. Maybe then they would perform better. 

 

I remember reading on the forum here that the Black Pearl was heavily discounted before it went. I believe $50 a piece? The same goes for the UCS Batmobile. Over here in Europe they were heavily discounted at the end. Nobody bought them. And look at their performance.  

 

Helm's Deep was also cheered and compared with modulars. Growth has (yet) not been what many people expected it to be.

 

70404 King's Castle on the other hand was called an ugly duckling. The blue colours were not as nice as the previous castles. Look at it going now. Already nicely above RRP.