9474 - The Battle of Helm's Deep

[surfnut]

Thank you DNIIM. Great insight. I felt like there was fair warning with HP Castle too and that shot up quick once those disappeared. I know HD will go up, but guess I was comparing it to HP Castle. Even Jabba's palace has doubled from that constant sale price it was on forever.

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[jaisonline]

I'm reading quite a few posts about sales of this $130 MSRP set. Most people prob paid $95-$110 per.

I'm wondering why people are selling this set already? People please understand that I'm not criticizing but rather wondering why.

Here is my take why I'm holding mine for another year it so.

Helm's Deep retired about only 9-10 months ago.

99.9% of sets have their single biggest annual ROI during year 1. Year 2 is less (say 50% to 75% of year 1's ROI).

We also know this set isn't going to be refreshed and it's the 2nd largest set of the theme and offers ample elements for castle AFOLs.

[njseale]

I think people are selling because they don't think the LOTR theme is going to do as good as many thought, so some are dumping now for a small profit to reinvest in other sets.

 

Myself personally my HD's are sitting there, have not touched them since I bought them. It's a good set outside of the LOTR theme and maybe the most iconic scene from the movie so there is no reason I don't see this eclipsing the $200 barrier at some point.

[pickleboy]

One sold for 200 bucks 2 days ago.  It's creeping up slowly but surely.  Not sure what people expected....get for 90ish last dec...sell for 200 this december...whats the problem?

Edited September 7, 2014 by pickleboy

[biniou]

I'm wondering why people are selling this set already?

 

Disappointed new investors who expected a jump in value as soon as retired, maybe ?

 

The really good thing about this set IMO is that it is certainly a long time seller, so it can both be considered as an "investment product" (to ear some money) and as a "safe investment" (low probability to see it drop in value, as long as AFOLs exist).

[jaisonline]

Disappointed new investors who expected a jump in value as soon as retired, maybe ?

The really good thing about this set IMO is that it is certainly a long time seller, so it can both be considered as an "investment product" (to ear some money) and as a "safe investment" (low probability to see it drop in value, as long as AFOLs exist).

Agree

[TheDarkness]

Disappointed new investors who expected a jump in value as soon as retired, maybe ?

 

 

Remember the days when people put them in a cupboard and sold them later?

More people are in it for the quick flip these days. Works for me, they will sit in the cupboard for awhile

[Achilles]

A lot of people "new to the game" have completely unrealistic expectations of returns/time. And a lot of folks overextend themselves for various reasons (can't pass up a deal, buying hysteria, poor financial planning) and are forced to sell sooner rather than later when bills come due.

 

Also, I think there are some veterans who are used to being able to sell stuff faster because there were less resellers/people holding on to sets, so they are also used to seeing their sets appreciate faster -  and they haven't quite adapted yet. It's a much different landscape than it was even 2 years ago for various reasons.

 

Opinions are worth what it costs to give them, but I don't see any way this set isn't a $350 set by next holiday season. And will probably be $250ish THIS holiday season which is still a fine return, but waiting another year for full maturation is the play here. I have a nice little supply but I certainly wish I had been able to get more. 

[MillerTime]

A lot of people "new to the game" have completely unrealistic expectations of returns/time. And a lot of folks overextend themselves for various reasons (can't pass up a deal, buying hysteria, poor financial planning) and are forced to sell sooner rather than later when bills come due.

 

Also, I think there are some veterans who are used to being able to sell stuff faster because there were less resellers/people holding on to sets, so they are also used to seeing their sets appreciate faster -  and they haven't quite adapted yet. It's a much different landscape than it was even 2 years ago for various reasons.

 

Opinions are worth what it costs to give them, but I don't see any way this set isn't a $350 set by next holiday season. And will probably be $250ish THIS holiday season which is still a fine return, but waiting another year for full maturation is the play here. I have a nice little supply but I certainly wish I had been able to get more. 

 

Same...I was able to pick up 20 or so, but some people have seem to have 50+.

[33Lego]

One sold for 200 bucks 2 days ago.  It's creeping up slowly but surely.  Not sure what people expected....get for 90ish last dec...sell for 200 this december...whats the problem?

200 - 20 fee - 6 fee - 12 shipping - 94*1.06 = 62.36.

 

That's great in my opinion.

[Alcarin]

Sadly for EU investors this set Must go for 200

[Crustybeaver]

This set is rising nicely, selling consistently now for

[KShine]

A lot of people "new to the game" have completely unrealistic expectations of returns/time. And a lot of folks overextend themselves for various reasons (can't pass up a deal, buying hysteria, poor financial planning) and are forced to sell sooner rather than later when bills come due.

 

Also, I think there are some veterans who are used to being able to sell stuff faster because there were less resellers/people holding on to sets, so they are also used to seeing their sets appreciate faster -  and they haven't quite adapted yet. It's a much different landscape than it was even 2 years ago for various reasons.

 

 

On the bright side - My sense is that we reached the tipping point about 6 months ago. I think that the Bandwagon was full, and people seemed to start falling or jumping out, as much as they were jumping in. Much less Rah Rah posts, a lot more disappointed buyer posts, many posts about dropping out, etc.

 

Basically, I think the worst is behind us - The expectations now discussed seem far more reasonable (not as much of that get rich quick vibe).

 

Now, the good old days are not returning - but at least we seem to have more stability, and reason to believe in good times ahead.

[emazers]

Its Like I said every would be investor says that they can play the waiting game, but it boils down to around 75% of investors crack within a year or so.

[brickelements]

Its Like I said every would be investor says that they can play the waiting game, but it boils down to around 75% of investors crack within a year or so.

3+ Years into this game and things are looking good.  Newbies please reread that.  It has taken 3 YEARS.  I have turned over minimal inventory during that time as life's bills requirements dictated.  Adopting expenses and buying a home.  Neither was cheap and both happened this calendar year...ouch on the pocketbook.

 

A new holiday selling season is upon us.  I currently have about 920+ sets inventoried with another 30 plus loose sets not accounted for.  Within that inventory about 1/3+ has appreciated to levels that meet my goals for selling.  A key note is most of that sellable inventory was bought in 2011/2012 with only a few exceptions.  So I have waited 2-3 years to achieve gains that align with my goals.

 

Can some do it better with more opportune buying, most definitely.  But this is my path.

 

In my brief time playing this game I have seen a few, definitely a minority of sets which could be flipped quickly.  Research Institute, 41999 (early selling), Exo Suit, early selling of minecraft and a few others the community could help point out.  Trouble is the competition is fierce on these flip worthy sets.

 

So if you work full time and cannot be online at any given moment to snap up inventory then many of those easy money sets will be elusive.  I also need to take more advantage of points/coupons/buying strategies to save as much upfront money as possible.

 

Personally I don't worry that much about them.  Sure I hate to pass up free money but I have not been online at the right time for any of the offerings.  I am seriously bumming on missing the Wal-Mart 10214 Tower Bridge orgy. 

 

By the time they are posted here the inventory is poofed.

 

Point is this game takes time to develop with a few exceptions that are an exception.

All this is just my opinion based on what I have encountered.  Your results may be different.

[Spartikis]

Its Like I said every would be investor says that they can play the waiting game, but it boils down to around 75% of investors crack within a year or so.

im also seeing a increasing number of people who are saying they are making these "long term" investments using credit cards. They either dont understand the concept of investing or their idea of long term is measured in months, not years.

[mscheaf]

im also seeing a increasing number of people who are saying they are making these "long term" investments using credit cards. They either dont understand the concept of investing or their idea of long term is measured in months, not years.

 

I make long term investments with credit cards. Why not? I use 0% cards and I pay it off in a few weeks and I still have the set. Did I miss something here?

[jeff_14]

im also seeing a increasing number of people who are saying they are making these "long term" investments using credit cards. They either dont understand the concept of investing or their idea of long term is measured in months, not years.

Or they're comfortable with leverage. On credit cards in particular, I am inundated with offers to make a transfer for over a year at 1%. If I'm comfortable with being able to sell a lot of sets within that time, 1% is a small cost of doing business. Ebay/Paypal charge me many times more than this. I can usually buy all manner of sets at 50% off retail if I just wait for clearance. And since clearance typically happens when a set is EOL and soon to be no longer in stores, the waiting time can be even shorter. It all depends on what your interest rate is and if you can pay it off or keep it low for some time.

Edited September 9, 2014 by jeff_14

[redcell]

I make long term investments with credit cards. Why not? I use 0% cards and I pay it off in a few weeks and I still have the set. Did I miss something here?

 

I think the OP was referring to people who don't pay it off immediately and end up paying financing charges.  .

[mscheaf]

I think the OP was referring to people who don't pay it off immediately and end up paying financing charges.  .

 

Ahhh gotcha, thanks

[Ciglione]

What I've learned in my so far short career in lego investing is that one needs patience. Not all sets can be winners right away. Sone qre, so if you own some of them, sell those. Easy money does not exist. Or everybody would invest in Lego. Many people qre in it for the quick flip. Which is totally fine. Deal and act as your financial situation allows you. And never take any debt for buying lego, never!

 

As for Helm's Deep, I think this is the best set in the theme. Unfortunately I only own one. It will grow slowly but certainly. I do not like LOTR at all, but this set is an exception for me. It looks really impressive.

[jeff_14]

What I've learned in my so far short career in lego investing is that one needs patience. Not all sets can be winners right away. Sone qre, so if you own some of them, sell those. Easy money does not exist. Or everybody would invest in Lego. Many people qre in it for the quick flip. Which is totally fine. Deal and act as your financial situation allows you. And never take any debt for buying lego, never!

 

As for Helm's Deep, I think this is the best set in the theme. Unfortunately I only own one. It will grow slowly but certainly. I do not like LOTR at all, but this set is an exception for me. It looks really impressive.

Disagree on taking debt. It's a reasonable strategy for buying stocks in many circumstances, which are both much more volatile and typically yield a lower return than Lego. If you see a load of Wolverine Choppers on discount right now (as I did myself 2 months ago) but don't have the ready cash, borrowing is a good idea as the sets can be flipped or held for stellar returns and only cost you 1-5% assuming you have a low rate card or credit line. I have no problem justifying that cost. I'd break the bank today if I saw a bunch of SSDs in a store right now. This is a business and there is hardly any business out there that wasn't started on debt. Just be prudent about it and understand the risks and costs. 

[jeff_14]

PS, I have 3 Helms Deep on hand right now that I got for half off by borrowing and can sell now for a 100% return minus the 1% borrowing cost. I'll take a solid 99% any day.

[MillerTime]

Disagree on taking debt. It's a reasonable strategy for buying stocks in many circumstances, which are both much more volatile and typically yield a lower return than Lego. If you see a load of Wolverine Choppers on discount right now (as I did myself 2 months ago) but don't have the ready cash, borrowing is a good idea as the sets can be flipped or held for stellar returns and only cost you 1-5% assuming you have a low rate card or credit line. I have no problem justifying that cost. I'd break the bank today if I saw a bunch of SSDs in a store right now. This is a business and there is hardly any business out there that wasn't started on debt. Just be prudent about it and understand the risks and costs. 

 

 

Exactly, almost every company holds some level of debt because their investments yield a larger return than their borrowing costs.

 

On the flip side, don't max out your credit cards and hurt your credit score over lego sets (what I used to do) - be smart about it, but telling people never to go in on debt that only costs 5-12% a year vs. getting 50+% returns a year isn't necessarily smart either.

Edited September 10, 2014 by MillerTime

[Locutus001]

Its Like I said every would be investor says that they can play the waiting game, but it boils down to around 75% of investors crack within a year or so.

 

Yeah of course they do, because 75% of investors have to pay their bills from what they gain with that kind of investment.

If you can just have it there waiting for the right moment to come and are independent from it to pay your monthly bill then of course you can wait.

On the other hand if you don't have the money and you need to flip your investment every now and then, a re-release can hurt that much more if you wanted to wait.

I totally get your way of investing and I would like to do the same but neither to I have the space nor the money haha.

But let us take a look on what you just said: Let us say we take a set that is doing well like the MF for 500$, today it has got a value of 2000-2500$ I would say. You still need to sell them though as the "value" and what you really get for them can be two different things.

 

It has been 7-8 years now (so 5-6 years EOL I don't know for sure feel free to aid ;-) ) for the MF and he has done really well.

Our "short term" investor who cracked when it had a value of about 1000$ did sell 1-2 years after EOL?

So he still might have doubled his investment in that time. Reinvesting those 1000$ and reselling other sets that did well after 1-2 years of EOL leaves him with about 2000$ now. Reinvesting and reselling again leaves him with about 4000% in about the same period of time if he did it cleverly (I have the feeling quite some people here are clever when it comes to short term investments). This is a pretty optimistic calculation though but then again it was against the MF. I think that in the end you can make about the same money with both methods and you don't have to be annoyed with yourself that you didn't wait for it to grow even more.

The upside of the shorter method is that you will be safer somehow as you do not risk that LEGO brings out the same set in a newer better version. While the downside of course is that it will take more work.

For those of us who do not have an infinite amount of space to store their boxes it also seems to be the better solution.

 

I myself want to start with long term investment as well, but when a set has got a value where my goal is reached I will try to sell it and reinvest. If I have the money to buy and buy and buy without needing the money that I used for first investments I might hold some sets for a longer period of time and sell them more slowly.

 

As for the people who are willing to take a debt for buying those sets: It might work out but my personal philosophy is to not spend more money than I have. Of course companies spend to earn but I am not a company and if I lose all my money I won't get a compensation for my good work and get another one in a new company. For me LEGO-Investment is a substitude for my bank-account or for the stock market --> I will invest the money that I have left and available for investments.

When you do it as a business things might be different as you are building a fondation for your future employment but with all the work included it's not a good deal if you start with only few dollars.