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    • Fcbarcelona101
      In the world of finance, investors are usually interesting in measuring the performance of their portfolios against a benchmark or to at least compare them to some of the other investments they had available at some point. Doing this analysis is extremely important, as it is the only way to determine how your personal investments have done relative to some others in the market. For example, say your portfolio produced a return of 20%, I am sure most of you would be happy with that number and would ask no more questions, but just think of how different things would be if you knew that the return of the overall market as measured by the S&P 500 was 30% (I am using exaggerations to make the point more visible) your portfolio would then have underperformed the market and instead of happy you probably would be kicking yourself!
      Relative performance is a very important aspect to keep in mind when investing, as you see from the example above. Now, there is one other thing that we should take into account that takes what I explained above one step further. Let's now assume your portfolio returned 32%, while the market had a return of that same 30%, in this case you can accurately say that your investments outperformed that of the overall market. Having said that, let's also assume that the standard deviation of your portfolio was 50%, while the market's was only 25%. What really happened in the end is that you took double the risk to capture just a 2% of extra return, and to me that is a mediocre extra return for such a high extra risk.
      How can we then adjust for risk and make our performance evaluations more accurate? one way is to use what is known as Sharpe Ratio, or reward to variability ratio. What this very simple to calculate ratio can tell us is how many units of return we receive for each unit of risk we took with our portfolio. This measure is a great way to compare investment portfolios relative to the risk taken, and I believe we can also apply it when investing in LEGO.
      If you read my previous Blog Article, you know that we can calculate standard deviation for LEGO themes or set types and come up with the respective volatility. The Sharpe Ratio measure uses this same calculation to account for risk, while at the same time including the expected, or actual, return and the risk free rate. On the next examples I will assume we have already calculated standard deviations for each theme and, for simplicity, that the risk free rate is only 1%.

      So, in 2013 Ninjago and CITY's return was 25% and 10%, respectively. The risk of each measured as standard deviation was of 12% and 4%. What follows is the formula to calculate the Sharpe Ratio (Image from Investopedia)

      As you can see, the calculation of the measure itself is pretty simple, and only what comes before is what can get tricky at times. Applying the formula to the numbers presented above we get the following results:

      So what these numbers tell us is that, even if at first sight a Brickfolio focused on Ninjago in fact produced higher percentage returns, it is the CITY Brickfolio the one that presented the higher returns on a risk adjusted basis. Basically, the Ninjago investor was able to secure 2 units of return for each unit of risk, while the CITY investor produced 2.25 units of return for each unit of risk. Another read that you can make is that the Ninjago investor was not compensated as well as the CITY investor based on the risk taken by each.
      A very basic rule of thumb when using this measure is that a higher ratio is preferable to a lower ratio. Also, as mentioned earlier, there is no need for you to wait until you have the actual returns of your Brickfolio, as you can also use your expected returns in place of the actual return as a way to compare possible future outcomes.
      The Sharpe Ratio is not, of course, the end all of performance evaluation measures, but I think that it is simple and accurate enough as to be used even by the casual LEGO investor without getting into way more complicated methods. I believe that with any serious investment it is very important to evaluate as many factors as possible, and risk is certainly present even when taking about LEGO bricks. A long term investment strategy is strongly suggested, and by using Sharpe Ratio, Standard Deviation and by determining your goals early in the game (Check out Adewar's blog on viable investments and how to determine your own objectives) I think you will be a step ahead most people.
      Note 1: Attached you will find an Excel spreadsheet showing the calculations used for the example in this article.
      Note 2: Returns calculated by Sharpe are excess returns.
      Thanks for reading!
       
      Sharpe.xlsx (9.69KB) : 10
    • Quacs
      "Marty, we need to go back! Back to the Future!" - Doc Brown In 1985, the first movie of the blockbuster trilogy Back to the Future was released to accolades. It quickly became an 80's classic movie with kids and adults alike routinely quoting famous lines from the movie. From Bif bellowing "McFly!" to Doc stammering about flux capacitors, this movie quickly worked its way into pop culture, and today it stands as an all-time great.
      Imagine for a moment that we were actually able to time travel. As a Lego investor, the first set I would travel forward in time to learn about would be 10227 B-Wing Starfighter, the single most debated set on Brickpicker over the last six months. The B-Wing is a Lego Star Wars Ultimate Collector Series model of one of the lesser known Star Wars starships of the Original Trilogy. This model has created so much controversy because of its perceived unpopularity prior to an unprecedented 50% off sale that resulted in a dramatic run on this set. An unheard of discount, a short sales duration, and a relatively fragile build of an unknown starship has conspired to create a flumoxing mix of competing positive and negative secondary market characteristics. I want so badly to see how this set performs because it really has the potential to explain so much about the secondary market, and what characteristics are important to secondary buyers. If there is a Rosetta Stone of Lego investing, this very well may be it!

      To make an educated guess where the B-Wing is going, we need to remember where the B-Wing has been. Let's hop into our ugly CUUSOO Delorean and set the clock to July 6, 2012, the day Lego officially announced the B-Wing's release. Apparently, TLG was particularly successful keeping the lid on the B-Wing's development, so there was little indication this starship was in development among the Lego community. It's announcement and subsequent unveiling the following day at Brick Fiesta in Houston, Texas caught many fans by surprise. Soon after it's announcement, information began to leak out about the B-Wing to Lego fan sites and the first comments began to surface about the B-Wing. Unfortunately, a chorus of disappoinment in the set's MSRP and the absence of an exclusive minifig was heard, so the B-Wing was off to a rocky start. For reference, here are the initial MSRPs by region according to TLG's official press release and their respective price per piece, one of the oft cited metrics from the B-Wing's initial complaints:
      $200 USD, $0.13 per piece
      $250 CAN, ($255 usd), $0.17 per piece, 27.5% over US price
      €200 ($246 usd), $0.17 per piece, 22.9%
      170£ ($263 usd), $0.18 per piece, 31.5%
      1700 DKK ($281 usd), $0.19 per piece, 40.5%
      Back into the Delorean, we fast forward to B-Wing's release October 1, 2012. The buzz around the set was largely muted: a few still complained about the price point, but the few reviews coming in were largely positive, especially from Star Wars fans. It didn't appear there was a lot of excitement about this new UCS set, and with Death Star, Super Star Destroyer, Imperial Shuttle and the R2-D2 models crowding it out, the B-Wing perhaps got lost in the shuffle of a strong group of Ultimate Collector Series "large scale" models.
      Then came May 4, and the epic B-Wing promotion from Lego. On the evening of May 3, the night before the TLG's yearly Lego Star Wars promotion day, Brickpicker officially announced at 8:00 PM EST that Lego would be discounting 10227 B-Wing by 50% in the United States. This set off a deluge of anticipation within the Brickpicker community, and on midnight of May 4, 2013, TLG posted the B-Wing for $100, a full $100 less than MSRP. Within forty-five minutes, the B-Wing was sold out and a torrent of posts flooded Brickpicker's forum containing a spectrum of responses. From one member who bragged about purchasing 11 B-Wings to others who castigated the BP community for not allowing children the opportunity to have their very own, most of the responses were intense. It seemed no one had anything less than visceral reaction to TLG's discount.
      The obligatory eBay postings arrived the morning of May 4, with the typical listing anywhere from $100 to $300, atlhough there were a few 'Buy it Now' prices that listed 10227 for four figures. During the entire month of May, eBay Lego listings were dominated by this previously quiet set, with a total of nearly 300 sets sold, a 1,000% increase in listings from the previous month. Yet, as the calendar flipped to June, the listings have slowed again, and Lego resellers have largely moved on to other sets. As of June 24, 68 NISB B-Wings had sold in June, a fraction of May's total, and only 39 more than were sold the month prior to TLG's B-Wing's discounting.
      A few short days ago, Brickpicker members saw that 10227 B-Wing was listed as "Call for Availability". This tag is, at times, a precursor to full blown retirement. Later, Lego updated their listing to include some stock, yet the retirement speculation had begun. Was B-Wing gone? Today, a look at Brickset's B-Wing listing shows a June 17 retirement date for the US and Canada, with the set still available in the United Kingdom. The US Lego S@H listing shows the B-Wing completely sold out with no restocking date. Brickpickers take note: these are some strong signs that indicate B-Wing's official retirement is now on the horizon.
      So what does this long, strange trip mean for secondary sales of the B-Wing? First, if the B-Wing is officially retired, we can confirm earlier speculation that Lego's discount was in fact a clearance sale intended to eliminate B-Wing stock. This is potentially valuable information that could establish a precedent for future large discounts by TLG. It's probably a pretty good indication that if a given set is discounted 50% in the future, it's likely the beginning of the end for this set.
      That said, we still need to estimate how this set will perform from here on forward. For reference, let's once again show how well the UCS have performed:

      This subtheme's performance has been rehashed time and again, yet the numbers don't lie. Apart from 10215 Obi-Wan's Jedi Starfighter, these sets have all performed really well after retirement. However, when you look at 10215, there is a concerning similarity between it and B-Wing: it's price per gram is VERY similar. Fortunately, the table also shows us another strong earner, 10026 Naboo Starfighter, that sports an even higher price per gram so I don't believe there is any correlation between price per gram and secondary performance for UCS secondary market performance.
      Remember that secondary performance is typically the result of retail popularity and retail availability. While sales are the ultimate measure of set popularity, Lego doesn't release sales statistics to the public so it's difficult to get compare the B-Wing's popularity to other UCS sets. However, to gauge retail availability, we can take a look at the number of months these sets have been released. Per Brickset's release/retirement dates, here are the sales durations for UCS sets they have on file:
      10221 Imperial Star Destroyer - 22 months (and counting)
      10212 Imperial Shuttle - 27 months
      10186 General Grievous - 12 months
      10179 Millennium Falcon - 30 months
      10174 Imperial AT-ST - 17 months
      10175 Vader's Tie Advanced - 15 months
      10143 Death Star II - 16 months
      Assuming a quick retirement like Brickset anticipates:
      10227 B-Wing - 8.5 months
      That's a really short sales duration for any set, and almost half the duration of every set on the list above except 10188. As a comparison, the explosively popular 9465 The Zombies was out for just over 4 months. Even though B-Wing has been around twice as long, it's still within 4+ months of The Zombies sales cycle. If it's true B-Wing is retiring, it will have the shortest sales cycle of any UCS set.
      The natural response to B-Wing's short sales cycle is that it wasn't popular, so it didn't sell at MSRP, and will therefore not garner very good secondary sales. While this may turn out to be true, most people that invested in B-Wings did so during the May the Fourth promotion when retail was $100. Everyone in this camp should be poised to make a nice return on their investment. Here is a table with the B-Wing's ROIs at specific secondary sales points assuming a $100 purchase price and a $200 purchase price:

      If you review recently sold eBay listings, the typical sales price (without shipping) is anywhere from $135-150. So, the first sales price I included was $150. As you can see, for those that bought at $100, you are almost guaranteed to make money, and could be poised for big profits if B-Wing performs like the rest of the theme. Unfortunately, the other side of the coin is those buyers that bought B-Wing prior to The Sale. As the the table shows, a B-Wing purchased at anything close to MSRP is in danger of breaking even, or possibly losing money.
      Where will B-Wing eventually end up? I think the 10212 Imperial Shuttle is an adequate comparable to assemble the B-Wing's return model: both sets sold at roughly the same rate on eBay while they were available at retail, fluctuating between 25-50 sales per month, both sets are similar in size and cost, and both are Ultimate Collector Series models. While B-Wing is probably less iconic that the Imperial Shuttle, neither ship was a true Original Trilogy icon. While IS is probably slightly more popular, B-Wing has a lower MSRP, so if these aspects balance they should provide similar ROI. Assuming IS's value climbs $10 per month for the foreseeable future, 10212's secondary market value is likely to reach $400 before the end of the year, pegging it's first year ROI at roughly 50%. A similar gain by B-Wing would peg its value at around $300 on or about July 1, 2014. Since this seems a little high to me, let's back off a 50% return over MSRP and forecast a 50% return over it's ideal sale price of $150-175. That would bring secondary market buyers at a $100 purchase price a return of 30-50% after transaction costs.
      10227 B-Wing did not take the traditional path to EOL, and because of this it could become a very illustrative set for secondary market investors. The eventual plateau value of the B-Wing should provide some insight to the following:
      How do significant (50%) discounts by TLG affect post-retirement performance? Will the Ultimate Collector Series subtheme continue to show across-the-board success, or could future subtheme sets be invesment failures? Is there any correlation between strong set launches and future secondary performance, or more importantly, weak model launches and corresponding secondary failure? More broadly, what is the effect of momentum, or lack thereof, on the secondary market value of a Lego set? Unfortunately, my sports almanac doesn't contain any Lego secondary market values, so I will have to get to work on my own Mr. Fusion flux capacitor. Or, perhaps I will just wait to see, along with everyone else, how the future unfolds.
      And as always, invest accordingly.
    • adewar
      When LEGO investors evaluate a given set, they ask themselves, is this investment viable? Is it worth putting my hard earned money into? But, what does viable mean exactly? Is it anything that nets more than the inflation rate or the supposed risk free investment rate of US treasuries (let's not debate if treasuries are truly risk free)? Probably not. We all know there is a certain element of risk involved in LEGO investing that should command some risk premium, but what should that risk premium be? Fcbarcelona101 points out in his very insightful blog, that even among various LEGO themes, risk can vary greatly.
      Other questions may be, Can I flip this set today for a quick profit or should I hold on until EOL or hold until the community standard of EOL + 2 Yrs. What time frame should I expect to realize a return on my investment? What level of growth should I expect from a given set? If I have a limited budget and a high tolerance for risk, should go for that one home run? What are my goals? The answers to these questions and ultimately the question of what makes an investment worthwhile are going to be different for everyone. There a lot of factors involved. Many investors prefer to deal in large sets which can net $100+ in one sale while others are content to deal in volume and sell polybag after polybag for a net of $3 each. We all have to evaluate our budget, storage space, and the amount of time we want to devote to this hobby/job/casual pastime among other things. Many of these factors are difficult or impossible to quantify.
      However, in an effect to quantify what can be quantified, I put together a calculation in the attached spreadsheet that encompasses the most relevant variables that I consider when deciding to purchase a given set. It is not meant to be all inclusive, for example it doesn't include a risk factor which I think would be a very nice addition. Here it is, perhaps it will be useful to some:
      The fields which are intended for the user to populate are highlighted in yellow:
      MSRP - Enter price paid
      Hold Time (Yrs)
      Time Value of Money Discount Rt - Enter the annual return you expect
      Transaction Cost - Enter the % of the final sale price lost in transaction costs
      Sales Effort - time involved in the investment (buying, listing, selling, shipping) entered as fraction of an hour
      Hourly Rate - How much is your time worth to you or the amount of money per hour you would need to make if your transaction were to net '0' and have it still be worthwhile.
      The resulting output gives:
      Future Value:
      Net Return
      Worthwhile?
       
      LEGO_Investment_Calc.xlsx (11.18KB) : 37
    • Fcbarcelona101
      Welcome to my Top Ten Best Selling Sets section for the month of May. This will be the first of a series of articles dedicated to examine some of the purchasing trends as shown by eBay data collected by Brickpicker every month. My aim is to publish one of these as soon as each month's update is completed by Ed/Jeff and show the users of the site some of the most popular sets so that they can use it as a guide about what is hot at any particular month. Hope you find it useful.
      May 2013 Top Ten

      1- No surprise in the first spot when you remember that this month's data includes the period before, during and after the May the 4th promotions. The 50% off the B-Wing guaranteed that a very high quantity of customers would end up purchasing the set in differing quantities with the intention to build, invest or flip in the short term. The low price for which this set is selling at the moment relative to its high MSRP may earn it a spot in the Top 10 for at least a couple of months.
      Change from previous month: +165 Places

      2- The popularity of this set even after the initial craze and subsequent increased production allows it to stay in the top ten for yet another month, and so far it has been there for at least December 2012. Price continues to drop, as do overall sales, but the fact that it still is in 2nd place prove just how popular this set has been.
      Change from previous month: +3 Places

      3- This is yet another set that comes as no surprise, as it constantly hovers over the top spots in the best sellers list. The Millenium Falcon 7956 is expected to retire relatively soon, and considering this is the best version released as of today, ignoring the UCS 10179, it is sure to be a great performer in the secondary market. The set moved up 9 places, a leap that can be attributed in part to the May the 4th sales and promotions.
      Change from previous month: +9 Places

      4- This is one unique set that usually does not get talked about much in the forums, however it continues to demonstrate month after the month that it is one of the most popular available. According to Brickset, the set has been Sold Out at S@H since the end of April.
      Change from previous month: +12 Places

      5- For those of you that still have doubts about the popularity of the Friends theme, this little set has managed to capture the #5 spot of this month. Released in February, it is one of the newest sets of the theme, so that may account for the high number of sales it has experienced.
      Change from previous month: +45 Places

      6- This relatively new battle pack is getting very popular, very fast. The quantity of sets sold has been increasing by A LOT since its introduction, with sales this month surpassing April by 77 copies.
      Change from previous month: +95 Places

      7- This Chima Speedorz is one of the only sets I really wish I did not see in this list. If you remember, LEGO included this set as a freebie in pretty much every single order that went through. Of course, people then turned around and listed them on eBay with the expectation of making a few bucks on them. As one would expect, price continues to drop. Even more, this is the largest jump relative to the previous month, something that goes a long way to show just how many of these little things are now floating around.
      Change from previous month: +933 Places

      8- The eternal Death Star jumped several dozen places even with it very expensive price tag. Most of this jump can probably be attributed to May the 4th as well. The advertising by LEGO probably spews out towards other selling outlets.
      Change from previous month: +45 Places

      9- After one month in the second spot product of the "early retirement" confusion, sales of the Palace dropped significantly from 937 to "only" 96 copies in May. Still, the set maintains a position in the Top 10 and it will be interesting to check where it will be next month.
      Change from previous month: -7

      10- To close our May list we have yet another 2013 Star Wars Battle pack that jumped more than a hundred places relative to the previous month. These things are very affordable and great army builders, but why this particular one jumped so much ,other than because May the 4th and its recent release, is beyond me.
      Change from previous month: +123 Places
      And with that, we close this month's Top 10 best sellers list. If you are interested to check out the complete list, click here and you'll see the Top 50 best sellers according to eBay data.
      See you next month to evaluate June's Top 10!
    • Fcbarcelona101
      Cars, trains, planes and ships, what do all these transportation methods have in common? They usually start depreciating the very moment you use them for the first time, especially so with cars but also true of all the others. In the LEGO world, however, the opposite is most often the case.
      There is usually a lot of talk in LEGO forums about the great appreciation usually shown by train sets, and that is something that can’t be ignored, but it sometimes makes me think that we are overlooking or at least under valuating the performance of ships, planes and cars, that as I will show a little later in this article are usually at least as good as the best LEGO trains. There is something about scale models of these transportations methods that has always attracted attention in large groups of people, and LEGO has obviously noticed.
      In this article I will try to showcase the performance of each of these classes, but first let me draw you some sort of map so you know what to expect: First we will be taking the road while we talk about some of the best performers in the four wheel universe, we will then park our vehicle at the piers where we will be boarding onto the top performing ships of LEGO history. Once we disembark, we will be buying our train tickets (direction: airport) and have a little talk about the largest, and best performer, trains in the LEGO world. By that time, we should be in time to catch our plane and return to our starting point once again to complete the trip. As if all this were not enough, I’ll leave you with a comparison and ranking of all these transportation categories as well as an analysis of the current investment options available to you in this regard.
      Let’s begin our journey.
      Road Trip
      Cars, trucks and other vehicles have always been of interest to a large amount of the population. Take the success of other toys like Hot Wheels, scale models and even real car collecting as evidence of the interest this transportation method generates in people.
      When we talk specifically about LEGO vehicles, we have to focus a lot more in those from the Technic line, as they have usually been the largest and best performers over the course of the years. Let’s take a look at the Top 5 LEGO vehicles that have been retired so far.
      8421 Mobile Crane

      *No Description
      Found* Comments: The second largest vehicle ever produced by LEGO, and part of the Technic line. This set is huge with close to 2,000 pieces and a very interesting model as well. Driving this thing will probably not get you very far at a fast rate, but it has definitely proven to be a fast grower over the years. There is little activity on this set (New) on eBay, with the last one being sold in April of this year for the amazing price of $ 725! As with all Technic builds, there is a lot of functionality in this set and it seems to have gone well under the radar.
      8258 Crane Truck

      An exciting and challenging building experience with this 2-in-1 real world model! Try the functionalities with the included Power Functions XL Motor, Power Functions Battery box, and Power Functions Control Switch! Power Functions powers the crane arm and extendable outriggers! Crane unfolds , raises and lowers and swivels 360°! Cab opens to reveal interior details and V8 engine with moveable pistons! Rebuilds into Duty Wrecker! Crane measures 20.9 inches (53cm) x 22 inches (56cm)! Comments: Another Technic build, another crane type set. Came with Power Functions to make some of the nice features included work, and even had some pieces made completely out of rubber and metal instead of traditional plastic. You could even download a different set of instructions and completely change the looks and functionality of the model, so you were basically getting two different sets for the price of one. This set is more recent than the Mobile Crane, and as such has a lot more activity per month on eBay. The price seems to be moving up steadily every month as well.
      8285 – Tow Truck

       
      Comments: And big trucks continue to dominate the list, just like they do in the real American car marketplace. Really good looking tow truck, and being a Technic set, it does come with its fair share of motorized and other functional features. As with the previously discussed model, this set also had a second set of instructions to transform into a flatbed truck. This Tow Truck was originally released in 2006, just one year after the Mobile Crane, and shows a similar level of low activity on eBay as a consequence. The last two new ones sold for over $ 700 as well, but with such a low amount of data is really hard to tell what their real market value is at this point. Another under the radar set at a time when LEGO investing was not really in full gear. Another great Technic investment.
      5571 Giant Truck

      *No Description Found*
      Comments: Released in 1996, this is the oldest set of this Top 5, and the first one that is not a Technic build (it IS another truck though). A real vintage piece, this truck is one of the earliest examples of a real LEGO display piece the company has us accustomed to as of late. Not only was one of the largest models of the time, if not the largest, but it also has been proven to be one of the top performers of this list. With a surprising 9 % CAGR still after more than 16 years of its release and at least one new set sold for the last 6 months, this set has nothing to fear from any of the other larger trucks talked about above.
      One thing to note, the set suffered from a significant drop in value in the last month, but considering for how long this set has been retired, I would assume that those are just typical price fluctuations that will average out in the end.
      10187 Volkswagen Beetle

      Comments: And so it’s the last set of the list, and the only one in the Top 5 that is not a truck or a Technic build, just a “regular” passenger car. The VW Beetle is one of the most popular and easily recognizable cars in history, thanks to its particular design, and LEGO’s agreement with the automaker has made it possible for fans to build their own. Even more, this car model was chosen by real LEGO fans, so its popularity was to be expected.
      Released in 2008, this mostly blue model has presented a very fast level of growth, with a CAGR of over 30.5% and also an increase of almost 3 % over the past month. The Beetle has been growing steadily every month, and at $ 455 already, it is 280% over its original retail price in just a couple of years.
      Honorable Mentions

      I think there is no need for me to add any more information, am I right? LEGO cars and trucks have proven to be extremely good performers in the secondary market, so don’t doubt about getting a few of them. These will always be popular, and that makes the price go higher and higher. Definitely a better investment than a real car, if you ask me.
      Set Sail…
      Lego Ships are one of the most talked about and successful investment choices you can make in the LEGO universe. Ships are one of the oldest methods of transportation in human history, and they go pretty far back in time when talking exclusively about LEGO as well.
      Most of the time, the company has decided to go with the sail boat type of ship, instead of more modern designs, probably because they look so much better when transformed into bricks. As you will see, however, there have been several profit makers of both kinds.
      Also, unlike in the cars/trucks category, LEGO ships performance is not so much linked to a specific line or theme. The variety of themes included in the Top 5 and Top 10 is rather interesting, from Pirates, to the licensed Pirates of the Caribbean, and even a couple of Maersk vessels.
      Let’s now go ahead and dive into specific sets:
       
      10210 Imperial Flagship

      Comments: The largest and, in my opinion, most amazing ship LEGO has ever produced. The Imperial Flagship is part of the generic Pirates theme, but it does not look that most of the previous sail boats, as this one is extremely realistic looking (both inside and out). The ship was also a LEGO exclusive AND also including 9 cool minifigs, so it pretty much had everything going for it. At this point, it has been retired for a little over a year and is already getting close to doubling in value.
      The Imperial Flagship is the Holy Grail of LEGO ship investment, and I think it will be a while before we see another model that can even compare with it, both in size and realism.
      4997 Transport Ferry

      Comments: I told you there would be a lot of variety in this Top 5. This Transport Ferry set was produced in 2008 under the Creator theme, so it actually allows you to build three different models: a hovercraft, a cargo plane and the ferry. As with most sets in the Creator line, the price per piece is a real bargain, and at a low MSRP of $ 70, this was a set that you would have been able to stock up without real trouble. But now is too late, this great looking Ferry is already over MSRP by more than double, but suffers from the same issue some of the cars and trucks we talked about before do on the secondary market: there is just not much activity with this set. In fact, there has not been a new one sold since November of last year, according to Brickpicker’s data, so there is really no way to know how much this set is changing in price on a per month basis. Still, it has already appreciated a lot, and from the current listings available on eBay, it could be going by $200 in some months.
      4195 Queen Anne’s Revenge

      Comments: And the first licensed theme makes its appearance. With Pirates of the Caribbean being such a successful franchise, one would expect that all of the LEGO sets released under it would shoot up in price after retirement, but this has not happened. The two exceptions are, of course, the two ships that LEGO released, one being the Black Pearl, and the second one this Queen Anne’s Revenge. The Black Pearl was not large enough to make it in this Top 5, but its performance is extremely similar to the QAR.
      This ship is another great example about why are sail ships so popular with LEGO builders, as they look really great once completed. Besides that, the QAR also included 7 high quality minifigs related to the movie series, as well as an interesting number of cool play features. At this point, the ship is experiencing the high growth period usually seen after going EOL, and is bound to double in value in relation to MSRP before the end of this year.
      10155 Maersk Line Container Ship

      Comments: (Re-release of 10152) Maersk licensed LEGO set is something you’ll be seeing plenty in the following lists, they are just some of the most popular sets on the market, probably because it gives a lot of realism to the set and your collection by having a world recognized brand like Maersk. Having said that, this is not a heavily detailed and nice sail boat, but rather a ship designed for the hard and dirty work of moving containers across continents, and to that extent it is a very good looking ship. The brick built containers are one of its nicest features.
      Investment wise, this set has done a great job in the secondary market, though not as good as its older and less good looking sibling. Still, this one is a more recent model that lasted very little time on the shelves, so there is still plenty of room for more growth. It also was a lot more expensive than the previous version, so that is something you should consider as well. Another interesting fact that we can gather from the price guide information, is that despite the ship being somewhat active on eBay, it has been dropping as far as market value is concerned for already two consecutive months (New). While this may be a temporary trend, one has to wonder if the set has already reached its peak.
      10152 Maersk Sealand Container Ship

      Comments: If before we were talking about its newer, bigger and more impressive relative, now it’s time for the original Maersk Container ship to be in the spotlight. Unlike 10155, this version was released way back in 2004 at a much lower price (both MSRP and per piece) but with a very similar feel. The new one has some improvements, but overall you would be hard pressed to find really significant differences.
      What’s more important is, that despite having a lower activity level than the newer version, this set has already matured and has even grown some more in the past few months, staying very consistently above $ 190 without much variation. With an original investment of $ 75, you are probably very happy with how this one turned out if you were already into LEGO investing by that time.
      Honorable Mentions

      So, there have been fewer ships than cars/trucks over LEGO history, but as you can see all of the ones in this list have had a performance that rivals that of any set we talked about on that previous section.
      Along the Rails…
      Trains are investment winners. How many times have you read that phrase in the forums? Probably a lot, and for good reasons. If you are just entering the LEGO investing world for the first time and are a little wary of the whole thing, one of the safest investments out there would be to put your money towards a LEGO train purchase. These things, besides being appealing for the average LEGO fan, are also incredibly popular with the more broad train collecting population. Train enthusiasts, even if they are not really fans of LEGO, provide the secondary market with an influx of buyers that some of the other themes out there can’t compete with. Trains are just THAT popular. Even more, LEGO has been able to produce brick built trains that actually run over rails, allowing for so many more displaying and playing options to be available.
      Over the years, LEGO has produce a large amount of very high quality models, going from vintage and traditional, passing through cargo trains, to the current high speed Horizon Express. Let’s go ahead and take a detailed look over some of the most important ones.
      10219 Maersk Train

      Comments: Another Maersk themed set gets to be in a Top 5. This recently retired model has been appreciating very fast over the past few months, even though it seems to have hit some resistance these past weeks, nothing major considering how fast this one went up. The Maersk train is the largest train, piece wise, ever produced by LEGO after the recently released Horizon Express. Really compatible with both previously discussed container ships, this great looking model is aiming high, and will probably be worth double MSRP in less than a year.
      10194 Emerald Night

      Comments: An old-school looking train, the Emerald Night has been a real star on the secondary market. A LEGO exclusive, this model was reasonably priced at only $ 99.99, a great deal relative to the high quality set you got from your money, considering it also was open to motorizing. This great looking model has already more than doubled in value and despite a drop in value in the month of April, from the last eBay sales it looks that this set will continue to show continued growth over the rest of the year.
      10183 Hobby Trains

      *No Description Found*
      Comments: Why limit yourself to only one train design, when you can just build several of them with the same pieces? That was the idea behind the 10183 Hobby Trains set. You purchased a set with over 1,000 pieces that would allow you to create several different train designs at your leisure, without having to be “married” to one specific design. In a way, this set represented the original purpose of LEGO bricks, bringing creativity out and allowing you to build several different things with pretty much the same standard bricks. Anyway, as well as being one of the most interesting sets LEGO has ever released, in my opinion, the Hobby Trains has proven to be another investment winner, going over MSRP by almost 136 % and showing a steady growing trend.
      10173 Holiday Train

      Comments: Of all the trains in this list, this is the definite Star. The 10173 Holiday Train was a Special Edition released by LEGO for a really short period of time back in 2006; it probably lasted less than 4 months on the shelves. On top of that, the train is themed to the holidays and that usually means a higher price in the secondary market, kind of what happens now with the Winter Village sets. A lot of people like to set up their holiday towns, and how could they complete theirs without an appropriate train set? This is the set that filled that need during the 06 holiday season, and that continues to be in really high demand by many LEGO collectors all over the world. MISB listings for this set are very rare, even on eBay, and it seems that every single December the set jumps in value to a new record high, where it will stay pretty consistently until the next holiday season arrives. This is the very definition of a train investment winner.
      4565 Freight and Crane Railway

      *No Description Found*
      Comments: Another LEGO vintage set that has managed to do very well over the years. The first thing that may come into your mind when you first see this set is just how much LEGO has been improving the set design over the past decade, but by 1990s standards, this set was the top of the line. Running on a 9V track, this train not only has a lot of charm, but also a pretty decent performance in the secondary market.
      Honorable Mentions

      You see, it does not matter if they are new or old, or vintage if you prefer that term, most large LEGO sets have been really good performers over the years, and I am leaving a lot of them out of these lists just in the interest of not over extending the article, think some of the World City or newer City trains, and some of the Santa Fe cars as well.
      Finally, prepare for takeoff…
      And just like that we get to the last category I will be analyzing in this article, planes. Pretty much as it is with all of the other transportations types, planes have a market that usually goes beyond LEGO fans, with a large group of people being collectors of all types of plane models.
      LEGO planes are not as large of some of the other sets in the others categories, with some exceptions, and there also seems to be a fewer number of pure plane sets when compared to cars, trains and ships. Let’s see some of the highlights.
      10177 Boeing 787 Dreamliner

      Comments: The Boeing 787 is the largest plane LEGO set ever produced, and as such it also has some of the largest gains in this list, already over retail price by 287 %, and slowly growing even more. Unlike some of the sets I will be talking about after this one, the Boeing is a complete collector’s and display piece, even coming with a display fact sheet on the style of SW UCS sets.
      10124 Wright Flyer

      *No Description Found*
      Comments: Such an iconic moment in history needed to have its own LEGO recreation. Released in 2003, the Wright Flyer is a set any serious plane collector will probably want to add to their collection, and they will have to pay a pretty high price at this point. The set is really rare to see on eBay, with only 3 new ones currently listed for sale at prices way above the Brickpicker Price Guide, something to be expected with sets that do not “trade” that much.
      10024 Red Baron

      *No Description Found*
      Comments: A cool looking red propeller plane released back in 2002. This is another case of not enough activity to really determine the current market value of the set, but even if we base blindly on the price guide, the set presents a pretty good CAGR for the amount of years it has been retired so far. Just as a reference, the last 2 sealed sets sold by $ 300 and $ 350.
       7628 Peril In Peru

      Comments: An Indiana Jones plane that includes some other minor features, this pretty cool looking plane has doubled in value in a little over two years with a pretty good CAGR of 15%. It did have a drop in price last month, but if you see the trend, it is clearly a positive one. It may not be one of the greatest winners, but it has done pretty well.
      3451 Sopwith Camel

      *No Description Found*
      Comments: The predecessor of the current 10226 Sopwith Camel, 3451 shares a pretty similar structure (after all, it is the same plane) with a different color scheme. This older version was a little less detailed than the current Sopwith, and that allowed it to have a lower price. The 3451 moves a couple of new sets a month on eBay, but has been on a slump for a while now, that inherently enough started a couple months after the newer version was released. From that point it went from a peak of almost $ 170 to its current value. Not a huge drop, but it is somewhat significant.
      Honorable Mentions

      There you have it. Planes are much more modest in terms of size, quantity and even growth, with the most recent CITY sets presenting the best numbers of the last few years. Still, as you see from the lists above, most sets have appreciated very well in the secondary market.
      Before going into the few sets currently available for investment in these categories, I wanted to give you some numbers to compare all the larger transportation LEGO types, and see how they rank historically based on the sets on this article. Please note that these numbers should be used only as a guide, since we are comparing differently sized sets, released over a long period of time that have also been retired at very different times.

      Pretty interesting results, right? It would appear that from the sets we showcased above, the best transportation LEGO sets are those that are in the Ships category and by a very decent margin too. They are followed by Cars and Trucks, then Planes, and finally Trains. It follows that, if Trains are investment winners, then pretty much all other transportation type sets are as well. Of course, there is one caveat in this analysis. We have only analyzed the largest sets of each category, so there are probably a lot of other factors at play here.
      It follows this analysis that, if you have investment money, transportation sets are usually a safe bet, with Ships being the top choice.
      Before we conclude, let’s now examine my top currently available choices that fit into any of these four categories.
      10233 Horizon Express
      My Analysis: The Horizon Express is the largest LEGO train ever produced, and that fact alone should be enough to make it an investment winner. Of course, there are several more factors that make this nice train a very appealing option, like it’s unique colors and elements, advanced building techniques and nice interior as well as exterior detailing. The Horizon has just been released a short while back, so there is plenty of time for you to get it at a nice price, you will for sure want to add some to your investment Brickfolio
      Value Prediction: The fact that it is the largest train LEGO has ever designed will make it one of the most sought after trains once it goes into retirement. In my opinion, the Horizon will easily outperform the LEGO train average CAGR we calculated above, expect a number closer to 20% over its first two years after retirement, putting it around $ 270 (Assuming it goes EOL by the end of next year)
      10226 Sopwith Camel
      My Analysis: No need for me to tell you how good this set will perform, you have already seen what its smaller and less fancy predecessor has been doing over the past few years: going up steadily in value. Even more, we are talking about a vastly superior model, with a lot of pieces in a nice and rare green tone, several functional features, and a just outstanding display value. Truly, a collector’s piece.
      Value Prediction: Planes came third in our little experiment above, with an average CAGR above 15 %. Even more, the older Sopwith presents a CAGR of almost 10 % after being retired for more than a decade. If we project the same trend with this current version, by the time it has been retired for as long as 3451 its price should be somewhere around $ 285. It is my opinion, however, that this set will be doing a lot better than that, so plan accordingly.
      10220 Volkswagen T1 Camper Van
      My Analysis: Another VW licensed vehicle that probably will turn out to be a great investment choice, just like the VW Beetle before it. Set reviews for this set, both here on Brickpicker and in some other LEGO sites, have been extremely positive, mostly highlighting is “historical” significance and high accuracy compared to the original vehicle.
      Value Prediction: If this set even remotely follows the path set up by the Beetle, then we are up for a big payday in the future. It is important to note though, that the Beetle retired at a point where LEGO investing was not as widespread as it is today, so expect the Van to perform great, but not as much as 10187. A 25 % CAGR by the time it has been retired for as long as the Beetle would put it around $ 360. We will all be happy campers with this set!
      79008 Pirate Ship Ambush
      My Analysis: My pick in the ship category has not been released as of this date, but I might as well let you know it is the Lord of the Rings 79008. This great looking vessel will come with 9 high quality minifigs, including the more than likely exclusive Ghost King, and some other interesting characters.
      Value Prediction: Not really much information to really give you an accurate prediction, but I will go on a limb and guarantee this ship will perform at least as good as the POTC ones, especially QAR.
      We have come a long way, travelling by so many different ways and through so many years of LEGO history. I have said more than I really had planned to do, but I really hope I have given you at least a superficial look at some of the positive aspects of LEGO transportation set investment. All of these different categories have their own strengths and weaknesses, but as far as choosing them as investment choices for your Brickfolio, the historical information seems to guarantee that any of them will take you where you want to go, and allow you to bring some money back with you at the same time!
      Thanks for reading.
      *Title by Ed Mack*
    • Fcbarcelona101
      It is still very early to perform a proper and more accurate re-make impact evaluation about the UCS X-Wing, but now that we have our first month of actual eBay data I wanted to make a couple points and observations that I found interesting about both sets. Later this year, once we have several more months of data, I will be able to write a more in depth analysis.
      For now, let's just take a look at the numbers presented by the "old" UCS 7191 X-Wing so far this year:


      There are a couple of short comments I want to make about these graphs above:
      There was only 1 New 7191 set sold in the month of May, so the increase in the market value of the set does not tell us much about the possible impact of the new 10240 X-Wing on sealed sets. Most of the interesting data comes up when taking a look at sales of used 7191. In the past month of May and according to BP data the older version of the X-Wing sold 17 copies with a mean price of around $ 283. This number pulled the overall market value of used 7191 up by more than 17% relative to the past month of April. From these two points above, we can gather that at this point there is not enough data to determine the first month's impact of 10240 over 7191 when it comes to new sets, but that there seems to be enough to make some inferences about used copies. It appears from the graphs above that at this point investors, collectors or casual LEGO fans have seen no reason to stop purchasing the old version of the X-Wing or to even to pay prices that are substantially higher than what a new 10240 currently goes for. In fact, relative to previous months, the prices for used copies increased by a substantial amount!
      At first sight then, it seems that the remake has not negatively affected the interest for the old ship, and for the sake of investors let's expect things to stay the same.
    • Fcbarcelona101
      The purpose of this blog entry is to shed some light on the possibility of using the standard deviation as a measure of risk on different themes, types of sets and so on when investing in LEGO. This article will assume that LEGO returns follow a normal distribution.
      I am sure several of you already know about standard deviation, since it is often used as a measure of risk in more traditional investments like stocks, mutual funds, etc. For those of you that don't know much about it, we use standard deviation to determine the volatility of a particular investment or portfolio by evaluating how much is the data spread from the mean investment return. As a quick example, let's evaluate this simplified scenario: (The numbers below are not actual figures and are used for illustrative purposes only)

      Also, it is good to have the normal distribution graph as well to make it the following analysis easier to understand:

      So, what the numbers in the table above tell us can be summarized as follows: If the average return of the sets that constitute the Ninjago theme is 22%, a standard deviation of 10% indicates that, per the normal distribution, for a particular set among the theme the probability for its return to be between 12% and 32% is around 68%. Another read that could be made is that there is a 95% chance that a particular set returns between 2% and 42%.
      Further examining the example we can take a look at the CITY figures. In this case, there is a 68% probability that a CITY set will return between 8% and 12%, a substantially smaller range than that of Ninjago sets. What this basically means is that you are more certain about what kind of return you will be getting when the standard deviation measure is lower than when it is higher.
      Now that we got that out of the way, let's examine how we can use the measure to our advantage in LEGO investing. I will just give you an example using two different type of sets and what we can gather from the numbers they present, so that later you can probably do the same with themes or sets that interest you more. I will only be using returns of already retired sets, since that is the kind of information that is the most valuable. Also, I selected only four sets of each theme for simplicity purposes, but the more you include the more accurate the result.

      What the figures above mean is that you can expect a CAGR between 13% and 25% about 68% of the time when it comes to LEGO Sculpture sets, while the range for Advanced Models is a little wider (23.6% - 36.14%). By analyzing these results you will be able to determine that even though both investments have pretty much an identical standard deviation measure (risk), the Advanced Models theme will generate, in general, better performances that the Sculpture sets, so in theory you would be better off investing in the former rather than the latter. Same risk but higher return.
      One last thing before we continue, the 68% confidence interval is not the only one you can analyze when performing risk analysis, especially if you are someone with a low risk tolerance, since there is still a 32% chance that the returns will fall outside of the range explained above. A better measure for those that are more risk averse would be to consider the 95% confidence interval, that would give you a range of returns from 7% to 31% with only a 5% probality of it going outside the range (in the case of Sculptures, for example)
      There are several variables at play that we need to consider when doing this type of analysis, so I want to say that this short article is just intended to give you an overview of what is possible to accomplish by using this measure. Standard deviation can be used also to determine the spread of other investment figures like change over retail and some of the others, as well as used both for complete theme vs. theme analysis or some more specific comparisons.
      If you are interested in checking out some different sets or themes, I attached a small Excel spreadsheet that shows the way I calculated the numbers in the table above.
       
      Excel.xlsx (10.16KB) : 18
    • adewar
      Is the Friends theme worth investing in? If one were to search the forums for an answer to this question, you would find rather fervent opinions on both sides. Currently the Friends theme sports a CAGR of over 35%, making it one of the highest in the LEGO universe. So is that it, end of story, numbers don’t lie – ‘Friends’ is an investment winner? It is hard to say with such a short history to go on, but I’m skeptical.
      There is no question that the Friends theme has been exceptionally popular at retail and is unlikely to go away any time soon. Does this make it a good investment though? Duplo sets sell very well at retail, does that mean people should start investing in Duplo? Eh, doubtful (I am about to get flamed by the sole Duplo investor out there). ‘Friends’ are hot at retail, but will they be hot in the secondary market? Are AFOLs going to pay a premium for Heartlake Vet or Olivia’s House or a Summer Riding Camp when they are no longer available in stores? One has to imagine that some comparable iteration of these sets will always be available. Surely there will always be a Vet, (Insert name)’s house, and as far as horses – there will always be horses. There will never be a time when a LEGO customer cannot go into a store and find a Friends “Horse” set. Just like there will never be a time when someone cannot go into a store and buy an X-Wing. There aren’t many LEGO certainties, but this is a rare exception.
      Almost any retired Friends set is going to have an equivalent set available at retail. Now, the same might be said for the CITY theme as well and certainly there are a number of hits among that theme. What is going to compel someone to pay $200 for a retired Summer Riding Camp when there is a $100 - 2015 Equestrian School on the shelf that is just as good as the Summer Rising Camp, if not better? Do little girls really care that one set is more “rare” than another and therefore more desirable? Are there middle aged women that collect Friends sets and are willing to pay extra for rare retired sets (a la Barbie)? Or, perhaps more disturbingly are there grown men (think Bronies) collecting EOL Friends sets? That sort of condition could certainly lead to highly elevated prices.
      Ok, so I have thrown out an abundance of opinion, so let’s look at some actual data. The CAGR is over 35% as previously mentioned – that’s impressive. However, how consistent is that return across the theme? There are currently 54 Friends sets in existence, 10 of which are retired. If we look at just the retired sets we have the following:
       

      This chart illustrates why I think the high CAGR may be misleading. There are a lot of low priced sets on this list. Low priced sets seem to be more susceptible to inflated BP percentages. While the increases look impressive on a percentage basis, the net return is less so. The net return above is based on the “lowest acquisition price” which I thought might be a more reliable way to look at these low priced sets. With that said, there are at least two clearly worthwhile hits that made for viable investments, 3187 and 3942. This list also shows that we don’t have much data to go on yet in determining how well ‘Friends’ will do on the secondary market. These are all newly retired sets after all. The other aspect I wonder about it is how many people had the foresight to invest in 3187 and 3942? It is likely that the supply of these retired sets is low. Now that investors have been turned on to this theme, will future retired sets be in such short supply?
      Now going back to the high CAGR and the abundance of low priced sets, let’s look at the breakdown of the current list of 54 sets currently in this theme. Of these, 23 either have not been released or have a MSRP of $0.00. In either case, they are not included in the aggregate CAGR calculation. That leaves 31 sets, (including the 10 retired sets listed above). The MSRP breakdown is detailed in the histogram below.
       

      The chart shows that 18 of these 31 sets have an MSRP ranging from 3.97 to 14.99. Therefore, the CAGR for the theme is going to be heavily influenced by these low priced sets. I would be cautious about basing theme wide optimism on data from so many low priced sets.
      Now, I don’t hate the Friends theme. I think the Summer Riding Camp is a great set and the upcoming Dolphin Cruiser has great appeal for its uniqueness among the line. I just think we need to look behind the numbers to see what is driving that very exciting CAGR and set investment expectations accordingly. Odd as it may sound I actually have a lot of the $9.99 retired sets above. Now, that is only because I happened upon a huge supply of them at half price and I decided to take on the tedium of reselling them. I don’t expect much from them and will be unloading all of them this year. My purpose in exploring this topic was to see if my gut bearish sentiment was justified and the opinions expressed at the outset reflect those initial gut feelings. I will say that having looked into the Friends line further I do see some potential in very select sets, but count me still in the bear camp. Ok, I'm ready for my pink and purple hate mail now.
    • Veegs
      Investor: Veegs
      Investments (LEGO) to date: About $8000
      Sales to date: About $600
      Wife (One day overdue now...and still very pregnant) anger level: 9.5/10
      Most Recent Acquisition(s): Captain America at TRU.ca (only to get 30116 polybag)
      I was just perusing the other community blogs and really enjoyed reading articles that are a mix of personal as well as Lego. I also have the ability to type, so I figured I could emulate my fellow Legoists and provide a little (more) content to a site that I use so frequently. I do have three (count'em!) *pat self on back* published articles done prior to the changeover to this fancier version of the site, which make excellent light reading. They would have been better, but I blame my editors - they took out all the Lego conspiracy ramblings I threw in and just left investment-based information. Now, no more. I love that this blog feature lets me bare my investing soul with little to no oversight. To celebrate, I'll start with a run-of-the-mill, how I got into this hobby type post. I know there have been a few threads here and there with the same general idea, but I am on a power trip and feel like describing my unexpected journey in more words than most people would want in a general forum reply.
      It started slowly, the way things tend to start in the beginning, with a single cell that begins to divide. Wait - that is how my wife got pregnant...I think my Lego investing started at Pearl Jam Twenty. For those who don't know me, I am a little crazy 'bout Pearl Jam. I grew up on 'grunge' and now, in my mid-30's, still love the band but have more discretionary income to travel to see shows and stock up on merch. Two years ago, celebrating the band's 20th anniversary, I traveled from Ontario to Alpine Valley via Cleveland to see a weekend of PJ. Once there, I saw tons of people buying concert posters and cradling them like newborn infants. I wondered why, and after spending hours chatting with other music nuts, realized that collectors grab silk-screened prints to commemorate shows they have been to (or just prints that look awesome). I realized I a) had a house with a room just for me, and (gah! I can't get a the letter b and a bracket to NOT make that little emoticon) I suddenly needed posters and tokens from every show I've been to. Things quickly spiralled out of control and after getting back from the show I spent hours researching gig prints and their value, the artists, etc. I learned just enough to start spending money. I actively purchased below expressobeans (a must have site for print collectors) averages on any prints I could get my hands on. My wife grew weary of the castle of cardboard I built with my poster tubes. Then something magical happened - I started to list these posters on ebay and during November and December people bought a heck of a lot of them - presumably in an offering to Santa/God. My paypal account began to grow flush with cash and I got better at picking with prints were solid investment choices and which would languish in my portfolio, waiting years to be sold for minimal gain (The Lego Atlantis version of prints). Then Pearl Jam decided to do a short Euro 2012 tour and 3 US dates. Interest in the band wanes when they aren't touring or making new music, and I had read everything I could about their prints. I was hungry for more information and wondering what other collectibles I could invest in (keeping one for myself, obviously).
      Then it hit me like something heavy hitting you in the head, but metaphorically - other collectibles! I stayed with the PJ community and read a lot of threads about how expensive vinyl records were. Apparently musicians make very small amounts of vinyl available when a record is released, and, unlike CDs, *rarely* reprint (it seems okay to reprint if it has been out of print long enough - like remaking Jabba's Sail Barge or X-Wing Red Five) which means that hot items (listed as limited or on colored vinyl) command big secondary market prices. I started reading/researching and watching ebay sold listings, salivating. My work life began to suffer, my home life as well. My wife wanted to know why I was now adding 12 inch cardboard mailers to my giant castle of round cardboard poster tubes. Some nights, I slept in that castle, not by choice. Record Store Day and Black Friday Record Store Day brought some opportunities to make a little cash with a little hard work, and I spent a lot of time pre-ordering the best vinyl (the best vinyl being perhaps the first 1000 pre-orders worldwide, which will get a different edition of the album instead of plain black vinyl) and got better and better at making investment picks. Unfortunately, much like LEGO, the popularity of Record Store Day and vinyl in general meant picking very carefully. Picking very carefully also meant purchasing sparingly, only for records I was close to 100% certain I could later flip for at least a 30% profit after fees. I left a lot of smaller fish out there, and soon realized I only really wanted to invest in vinyl I also loved. I couldn't bear following bands/record labels of music I didn't really care for (invest in something you love, can read about for hours and never grow weary of discussing ad naseum on various forums or you'll eventually ditch your new 'hobby') so I now only have a small, manageable amount of bands/record labels I need to check. This gave me more time to get into another market - LEGO! (yes, I will finally talk about Lego. If you have read this far the tip in parentheses above about reading literally anything even remotely related to your passion and never growing weary likely describes you - we can be friends)
      I always checked out the Lego aisles when I went shopping with my wife, and have always loved Lego, but I spent most of my twenties travelling the world and living in various locales abroad. No base to set up a serious Lego habit, but I had always loved Lego and occassionally checked out the Shop & Home website just to drool over cool Lego. I joined the mailing list of TLG and even while living abroad in Dubai got their emails and thought about how cool it would be to build that Taj Mahal. Anyway, one day at 'work' I took a gander at some of the sets I had loved years before and was a little surprised at their secondary prices on ebay. Within minutes I was on brickipedia and minutes after that, brickpicker. An investing legend was born. I had a fair amount of money from selling vinyl and prints, a total much bigger than my wife assumed, and basically started making it rain hundreds at toy retailers in the fall of 2012. Now I'm sitting on over 10K of mixed collectibles and I've got enough good sets that I'm gearing up to sell (I'm aiming to be a powerseller by Septmeber) and start to split the profits - half to a retirement fund and the other half to plow back into Lego.
      I am going to see Pearl Jam next month in London, Ontario and with a fall tour there will be plenty of merch/print opportunities this Oct. and Nov. I've got dollar signs in my eyes and a 'music & Lego' room downstairs that still has some space. Time to placate the wife and make some more investments.
      Was your journey as long and convoluted as mine? Do you have a pregnant wife who hates your investment hobbies (until you sell for a profit, of course, then it is all smiles and weekend getaways funded by your 'hobby') are you a pregnant woman/wife yourself? Do you like Lego? If you've read all this gibberish, and fit some/all of the above criteria, let's be Lego friends. I promise to read and post on your blogs even it is tangentially related to Lego investing.
      Veegs
       
    • Fcbarcelona101
      On this second entry of the BrickIndex Spotlight I will be focusing on one of the last real sleeper sets of the past year or so: The Zombies from the Monster Fighters theme.
      The Zombies set was a Target exclusive, meaning that people could only purchase it through them or an actual LEGO store, thus causing the set to have a more limited availability than the average LEGO set. Even more, The Zombies only lasted for a few months and was retired very soon and without notice, a couple of facts that ended up boosting its appeal to both investors and collectors.
      A lot has happened over the months this has been retired, but ever since this particular set has been in the top 3 places in the list of top performing sets of the last 6 months (BrickIndex). It actually spent several months on the first spot, but as time goes on and its growth slows down it has dropped to "only" third place.
      We have to remember; this set was priced with a MSRP or $39.99 and at this point is selling for almost three times that value ($ 117.47). The rapid growth experienced by this set in a very short time caused its CAGR to be extremely positive at around 194%!.
      Let's now take a look at the growth of the set in the graph below.

      As you see above, the growth of the set really started accelerating once December came along, and has since grown every single month up to April of this year. In the table above, you will also see that there is a regression line that serves to show the linear trend the set has been following over the past 6 months.
      Over the past month of April (last month we currently have data from) the set appears to have started slowing down on its growth, going up in value by "only" 2.5%. Once we get the data from the month of May we will be able to tell if the set is definitely maturing and will then only show minor variations in its value in the short term, but I think that even without that data the graph and some logic would suggest that to be the case.
      What made this set so successful is such a short period of time? well, a big part of it is its limited availability and early retirement. Another point that probably played a role is the current popularity of anything even remotely related to Zombies, that probably made this set even more appealing even for the casual LEGO buyer.
      To conclude, I just want to add that even though this set has been in the BrickIndex for the past several months and even continues showing some recent growth, most investors that currently do not own one would be better served by purchasing some of the other sets currently available. Opposite to the case of the Winter Village Bakery, I believe that the chance to make significant profits in the short to medium term are almost null with this set given its growth pattern and its current market value.
      Thanks for reading


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