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    • Grolim
      I want to start a regular blog that will update the information I presented there along with an expansion to include the other time periods available and a little analysis/commentary.
      Firstly some notes on the scope before I begin:
      I have not restricted the qualifying sets by size or age or any other dimension Information is based on US prices only Not all themes are included as I have zero interest in Bionicle/Hero Factory for example. (I just didn’t have the willpower to gather the data for them really). Most of the rest are covered though. I tried to look at as many sets as possible, but there is a chance a few may have been missed, if you spot some that should/could be included please let me know One Month Growth (change in Market Price from last month)

      52% growth in one month for a Star Wars battle pack tops our list. That’s an impressive performance and one that’ll make the Star Wars and minifigure punters happy. The list is dominated by releases from 2009 onwards and on reflection that makes sense as many of those sets will be recently retired or approaching EOL so will be enjoying a bit of a price spike.
      It will be interesting to see if any of these sets can maintain some of this growth longer term. Which leads us nicely onto our next time period:
      Six Month Growth (change in Market Price from Nov 2012 )

      6808 blows them all away with 400% in six months! Looking a little closer though you can see this was on the back of only 3 sales and a price jump from $1 to $5, so not as impressive as it may seem. Highlighting the volatility of a small set with low volumes. The same criticism can be levelled at the rest of the top 4. Then we come to the 21016 which is part of the Architecture theme. 106% has been spectacular and I’ve never seen this set mentioned around before on the forums (sure it probably has but I’ve missed it). Not many people would have picked that ahead of the widely known 9465 Zombies that has had such a well documented rise to fame. Maersk Train is perhaps the only other set on the list that is widely discussed.
      One Year Growth (change in Market Price from May 2012)

      Because I went through this exercise using last months data in those previously mentioned forum posts I can now add in a column for the change from last time for these next three time periods.
      The top 4 sets on the list all suffer the same low volume volatility issue. Then we get the Level Crossing and Hogwarts Castle that have had plenty of copies sold and were on my previous list for this time period but have slipped a few places. NRG Jay enters the list with a strong performance. Quidditch Match and Lighthouse Island have both shown their respective growth periods are not waning yet as they increase up the ranks.
      Two Year Growth (change in Market Price from May 2011)

      Now into the two year time frame we begin to remove some of the short term fluctuations that can occur with some of the narrower time periods. Level Crossing tops the list still and there are plenty of other well known sets making an appearance. Notably absent is the 10179 Millennium Falcon who “only” scores 103.6%.
      I was surprised by the number of new entries to the list as I expected it to be fairly stable. But some of the new ones have had good growth in the last month or two which brings their 2 year result up quite a lot.
      Retail Growth (change in Market Price from Retail Price)

      Now for the full measure of growth from the retail value of the set. Obviously a set with a $0 listed retail price like all the promo giveaways etc are excluded as we can’t divide by zero, so that has weeded out a few of the small polybags or very very old sets for which we have no retail data. But the list is still dominated by cheap sets that have increased by large multiples. Most are very old as well and therefore have the same low volume volatility problem. Perhaps the first “real” contender is 10190 Market Street, such an impressive result for a set in just 6 years. 7884 Batman’s Buggy is an unexpected surprise that I was really aware of until now, but I’m sure some of you will know it well and have invested accordingly.
      Conclusions
      Completing this exercise I’ve been a little surprised at the volatility in the results. Sure, I expected some of the cheap older polybag sets with super low volumes to dominate the lists a little, and that’s something I might address in the future with a volume limit or something similar. But the amount of change from one month’s table to the next (in the last 3 periods) was an eye opener. It means that it is going to take a few more months of doing this before we can see the trends appearing.
      One thing that does explain it a little is the fact that the filter algorithms Jeff has developed for the Ebay listings are constantly being improved and this means that the data you see for one month’s update may get altered next time around as the filters get enhanced.
      The other major discussion point is that these top 20 lists all the absolute best investment decisions you could have made if you had perfect future knowledge. The amount of under the radar sets and “sleeper” hits have been a big wake up call for me. We sometimes become a little circular in discussing the popular sets for investing (Modulars, UCS, etc) and lose sight of the fact that many of the best investments to be had right now are probably some of the least discussed sets. It does mean there are plenty more topics ripe for discussion on the forums and in blogs.
      I’ve only given a cursory analysis of the lists themselves and would like to leave it to you on how best to interpret the results. The numbers should speak for themselves and I’d like to hear your take on them in the comments below.
      Analyse those investments you made back 6 months, 1 year, 2 years ago and ask yourself how they compare to the lists above. Could you have made a different choice considering the information you had available at the time? Did you perhaps miss out on a few of these top performers because you thought they would be less profitable than they sets you did buy? Are there lessons you can learn from that to help you with making current and future investing decisions. The smart investor should be constantly assessing performance to create a feedback loop with the goal of enhancing future profitability. Good luck
      Note: Following on from these two forum posts:
      http://www.brickpicker.com/forum/index.php/topic/3681-what-did-you-invest-in-1-year-ago/ http://www.brickpicker.com/forum/index.php/topic/3878-top-20-sets-2-year-return-rates/
    • Jeff Mack
      Semper Paratus - the United States Coast Guard's official motto - should serve as a beacon to Brickpickers. Translated from Latin, it means "Always Ready", and while it's appropriate to the core mission of the US Coast Guard, it's doubly appropriate for savvy investors on the lookout for their next investment purchase. This summer, BP members should recognize a familiar sight: a new wave of Coast Guard sets will be sailing into brick and mortar retailers. Should Brickpickers keep an eye out for discounts on these sets, or let them sail into the sunset?
      To provide a basis for assessing the potential of the new line, it's critical to review the return profile of the original. Released back in 2008, the original Coast Guard sets were released in two waves. The first was highlighted by 7739 Coast Guard Patrol Boat and Tower, while the second was headlined by 4210 Coast Guard Platform, a once-in-a-lifetime sea base set in the middle of the ocean, similar to an oil rig. Here is a quick review of the first Coast Guard sets:

      It's pretty clear the secondary market loved the first wave of Coast Guard sets. And why not? The sets have a great color scheme, it's a nautical theme so boats abound, and to top it off, the Coast Guard Platform is unique among City sets. I believe the Coast Guard platform outperformed the rest of the sets, despite it's high MSRP, because it was on the market for only 5 months. Frankly, the rest of the line likely benefitted from the theme's quick retirement as well, with none of them lasting more than 8 months on retail shelves.

      What a phenomenal set! 4210 Coast Guard Platform
      Interestingly, there were three previously released Coast Guard sets, but they weren't released as part of a subtheme. 369-1 Coast Guard Station was released in 1976, 575-1 Coast Guard Stationwas released in 1978, and 6435 Coast Guard HQ was released in 1999. While the data is a bit spotty, it appears only 575-1 performed well after retirement, fetching an average of $259 for a sealed box.
      How will the new releases perform? Well, let's review the current releases along the same metrics as we did for the first:

      Look familiar? The 2013 release has an identical set line-up except it lacks a base set (a real missed opportunity in my opinion) while adding a new pontoon plane. Note the pontoon plane hasn't been released in the US yet, so this is one that could perhaps be on a limited production run similar to 4210 Coast Guard Platform.

      Who doesn't love a Lego pontoon boat? 60015 Coast Guard Plane
      So, we know this wave is VERY similar to the last release, but can we predict whether it will perform similarly? To assess this, let's take a look at another City subtheme that's been released twice: Construction sets. There have been two full releases of the construction subtheme: one in 2005 and one in 2009. Here are the performances of each:

      Lego can be very formulaic when assembling their theme and subtheme set line up, and in this case we can utilize this to our advantage. Like the Coast Guard releases, the two construction releases are very similar in make-up: both have a crane, a construction site, and four jobsite vehicles to fill in the gaps. In comparing the performance of these sets, the 2009 release netted siginificantly less than the the 2005 releases. While 2005 has probably maxed out its returns and the 2009 sets may have a little room to grow, we should still expect a discount in returns from the 2013 Coast Guard sets. Using the construction sets as a model, expect anywhere from a 35-65% drop in ROI from the original Coast Guard release sets.
      For some, that doesn't leave the BIG profits that some investors expect.
      I will strongly consider adding 60015 Coast Guard Plane, especially if I can grab it on sale, because of its uniqueness among the Coast Guard subtheme, and the prior performance of the two other pontoon planes that were previously released. 7723 Police Pontoon Plane has seen a 113% ROI post-EOL, while 5925 Pontoon Plane has seen a 193% retirement ROI. Be aware that while 7723 is a good comparable, 5925 probably isn't, so lean more toward 100% when predicting an expected return for 60015.
      The Coast Guard motto Semper Paratus beckons investors to be "Always Ready". In our case, it should be for new Lego investment opportunities. While the new Coast Guard sets show some promise, be sure to scrutinize every set's expected return profile before inveseting. As the construction sets showed us, a second release will likely suffer from investors' "been there, done that" ambivalence due to Coast Guard fatigue. While there are opportunities with the new Coast Guard sets, be sure to locate the rocks before diving off this cliff.
      As always, invest accordingly...
    • Fcbarcelona101
      Back in the summer of last year (2012) LEGO released its new and vastly improved version of one of the most iconic locations of the whole Star Wars universe: Jabba's Palace. The new version included several improved mini and maxi figs, and it was a very good recreation of the "actual" structure. What's more, LEGO apparently had planned to produce the compatible Rancor Pit for a while now, making this set even more unique.
      Nothing else was really out of the ordinary about this set. Sale numbers since it really were pretty good and consistent, topping 100 copies sold on most months. Regarding its market value, the set experimented the typical spike in price that comes along newly released set as soon as they hit the market, but right after that it went into the typical downward trend as a result of retail discounting and increased availability. For several months after its release, the market value for the set ranged from $83 to $109.
      LEGO investors had mostly positive comments about this set, but it was not one of the most talked about ones considering that its retirement was not expected until at least the end of 2013. What took place in the month of April, however, took everyone by surprise and produced some really crazy figures.
      As early as the last week of January, news started being reported negative comments made by some religious groups making the claim that the set released by LEGO had some racist connotations. According to some of these groups, the structure resembled one of the most important structures of the Muslim community and, what's more, suggested that the Jabba character presented some stereotypes that reflected negatively on the Muslim community. We all know that Jabba is not the perfect role model and represents one of the worst criminals in the Star Wars universe, and that is what made some of these groups feel some antipathy for the set.
      Fast forward a couple months, specifically to the end of March and the beginning of April. Some news outlets started spreading the news that the backlash suffered by LEGO regarding this set had prompted the company to make the decision to retire it earlier than expected. The religious groups claimed victory, and from there everything started to change.
      The news of this supposed early retirement went viral and, as a result, the set in question started being purchased in larger quantities every second that passed. Prices on eBay soared, stores were completely sold out and even here on Brickpicker threads and posts related to 9516 were spreading extremely fast. From experienced investors to casual fans, passing through a more than likely high amount of average Joes hoping to make a quick buck, started hoarding the set a quickly flipping them on eBay for mark-ups of even $80 over its retail price. At one point, the set had completely disappeared from almost every single major retail store in the country, thus making eBay one of the few choices for those wanting to get a "piece of history" or at least to avoid missing out on a set they had planned to acquire later.
      Before I continue, I have to say that I actually went ahead and purchased 4 copies of Jabba's Palace on April 2nd, and immediately listed three of them on eBay for around $ 160 (Got them at Target for $87). The three sets sold in less than an hour, and I was able to keep the 4th copy all to myself with the profits, and even had some money left in the end.
      That personal note aside, let's now evaluate the numbers of sold sets and the price fluctuations over the past 12 months from Brickpicker's Price Guide:

      You can see in the graph above just how significantly the quantity of sold sets spiked during this April event. In the month previous to the craze and the month right after, the set sold closet to 10 times less copies than during April. With over 900 new sets sold, Jabba's Palace easily became the Top Selling set of the month and set a record of monthly sold sets that will probably not be matched in the near future, if ever. Note that a few months ago, during the period when Minecraft was really hard to find it sold over 1,000 in two consecutive months.
      Also, a very important fact to note is that the vast majority of these over 900 sets were sold in a period of less than a week, making it even more impressive.
      This increase in sold sets had to come with an obvious price increase as well, and that is in fact what ended up happening. Take a look at the graph below where the Market Value of the set is presented:

      So, in the month of April the set went up from $83 to $ 124. The spike is very obvious in the graph and one thing you have to remember when taking a look at it is that as the craze died down, the last 3 weeks of the month started seeing a decrease in the price of the set as most large retailers started re-stocking this set at retail price while short term flippers panicked and started dropping prices accordingly. If the trend of the first week had maintained for the rest of the month and the large retailers had not replenished their stock, the set would have probably gone up to at least $150.
      Eventually, as always, the fact that LEGO had never said that the set would face an early retirement caught up to the market, and as demand for the set decreased, the price for the set did just the same. You can also see in the graph that the set took a hit as a result, and is once again selling at around $96 on average. Again, if it had not been for the fact that the data for the last three weeks of May get tallied as part of that month, we would probably see an even lower market value for this current 53 day period
      So, now that things are relatively back to normal and the set is selling its regular amount of sets per month at close to its average price, what can we expect to see in the future? Well, there are a couple of things that are worth mentioning.
      First, we need to keep our mind on the prize and remember that this set was going to be an investment winner whether the April even happened or not. This set is superb and includes some great figures in it that should carry it towards the investment Olympus. Furthermore, historical figures support the fact that Jabba themed sets do pretty well in the secondary market, and as such we can expect no less than the same from this vastly improved set. If anything, this event can give the set a boost in the secondary market product of having some sort of interesting "history" attached to it.
      Another thing that we got out from the event is something that LEGO usually does not publish at all: an expected EOL date. In efforts to calm down the hysteria and later to further explain what was going on, LEGO announced that this set is expected to retire by the end of this year, as scheduled. This is one extremely rare case in which investors are handed out this kind of information and can therefore act on that as they see fit. You don't see this very often, if at all.
      Lastly, these events just go out to prove how a series of misrepresented statements and the internet can affect the supply and demand for everything, even our loved LEGO. There are a lot of individuals in the market that make decisions based on whatever they see reported on the internet or entirely by hype. This kind of misinformed decisions can result in everything from wasted time to large financial loses, but it also means profit opportunities for those willing to take advantage of the situation and those that really understand the market.
      What makes this event even more interesting is that we saw almost the complete opposite happen with the UCS B-Wing exactly a month later. In that case, a deep discount depressed the value of the set substantially and we'll have to keep an eye into how that affects it in the long term. For more info, read this outstanding Blog article by Quacs on the subject.
      Jabba's Palace April spike was certainly an interesting phenomenon, and how it affects the set's performance in the future is something we will probably be analyzing once it goes EOL later this year into early 2014.
      Thanks for reading.
       
    • Guest
      Thought you'd never use math once you got out of school? Think again. Today, as my first personal blog article, I am going to briefly describe a method to predict a set's worth using its CAGR.
      A while ago, Ed showed us what CAGR is, and how to calculate it in this blog article (http://www.brickpicker.com/forum/index.php/blog/4/entry-15-cagr-compound-annual-growth-rate-and-lego/), but for all of you who don't want to open a five hundredth tab, CAGR, or Compounded Annual Growth Rate, is basically the rate at which a set grows compared to its original value per year. A high CAGR = a good investment, a CAGR below 10% (or even a negative number) is usually a sign that a set isn't doing so good, unless the set can maintain a low CAGR for a very long time.
      Often people are aware of what the CAGR of an item is, or at least what its predicted CAGR will be for a period of years, but don't know how to apply that information to see what the value will be when the item is 1, 2, or even 10 years after retirement. With a simple equation, you can find out.
      Without further ado, here is the equation:
      (Orignal Value/MSRP)(CAGR - a 35% CAGR would be entered as 1.35 here)(Number of Years)
      The reason that a 1 has to be added in front of the 0.35 is because without it, you would be saying the set is basically dividing its value in 3 each year, which would be a negative CAGR (I'll get to that later). Now, let's work on some examples:
      Assume that Set A has a MSRP of $39.99. Its predicted CAGR is 40%, and you want to know what its value will be in three years. First, substitute the values into the equation:
      ($39.99)(1.4)(3)
      Then, calculate, remembering to always get rid of the exponent first. To work out the exponent on a calculator, punch in 1.4 and then hit the x/y key (you will need a calculator with an x/y key) and press 3. You should get an answer of 2.744:
      ($39.99)(2.744)
      Lastly just follow through and multiply:
      ($39.99)(2.744)= $109.73
      You're done! The answer means that if Set A continues on a 40% CAGR for the next 3 years, it will be worth $109.73 at the end of that three year period. Now I'll do one more just to make sure you all get it. Follow along with a calculator if you want and make sure you get the same answer:
      Set B is worth $24.99 when it comes out. It is predicted to have a CAGR of 15%, and you want to know what it will be worth in 10 years.
      ($24.99)(1.15)(10) = ($24.99)(4.045) = $101.09
      Now, what happens if you are trying to calculate for a set that has a negative CAGR?
      I'm not as entirely sure with this calculation as I am with the positive one, and hopefully you never have to use this one. It's hard to explains so I'll just demonstrate it:
      Set C has a MSRP of $44.99, and you want to know what it will be worth in 5 years. It's predicted CAGR for those 5 years is -3.67%.
      First, let's transfer that negative number into something usable. Take 100 and minus 3.67 from it. You get 96.33. Next, divide 96.33 by 100 and you end up with 0.9633 (there are other ways of doing this, but I think this is the easiest to understand). Now, you can use 0.9633 as the growth (or in this case shrink) rate. Set up the equation:
      ($44.99)(0.9633)(5) = ($44.99)(0.829) = $37.32
      I hope you all weren't to bored by all the math, but the calculation is easy and I hope it becomes of use for all of you. Now to finish off, I'm going to have a little challenge, and see who will be the first to answer:
      Look up the current (May 13 Data) CAGR and MSRP of 9476 Orc Forge. If it continues at that rate for the next 2 years, what will it be worth at the end of that two year period? Happy calculating!
       
    • LowestFormOfWit
      Awhile ago I placed a very large order on Bricklink to the Czech Republic for a fair quantity of white LEGO bricks/plates, etc. Some of these I ordered in USED condition to save a good deal of money. However, everyone who has an old collection knows, that among their whites (and sometimes blues and greys), lie the dreaded yellowed/discolored pieces.
      The plight is certainly common to any longtime LEGO owner, and until relatively recently was a problem unsolved. Enter Retr0bright (follow the link for the full rundown), the brain child of trial and error and some great minds. Though not specifically minded for LEGOs, the findings still apply as we're all dealing with the same ABS plastic in the end.
      The basic TL;DR is this: most ABS plastic (LEGO included) has added chemicals to make it flame retardant. This retardant, primarily the chemical Bromine (Br), was found to be the cause of the awful yellowing/browning of formerly white ABS plastic. The Retr0Bright mixture uses a chemical reaction between Hydrogen Peroxide, An "Oxy" based cleaner (Sodium Precarbonate as an active ingredient), and UV light (Sun or lamps) to reverse this process.
      Some of you may have heard or even used this process before, but for those who haven't, here's my explanation/tutorial on how to give those whites new life (or allow you to save some money on those Used Bricklink pieces!)

      Things you will need:
      -1x 88 cent bottle of 3% Hydrogen Peroxide (The ideal strength for a speedy process is 10-15% for best results, but I was testing here! 3% will work just fine if it's all you can find. You will just have to wait longer.)
      -1x 2 dollar tub of my grocery store's OxyClean equivalent (The only thing that matters is the active ingredient, Sodium Precarbonate.)
      -1x Re-purposed Vessel (I use a butchered Simply Limeade bottle here for ultimate thriftiness. You can use any vessel really, but make sure it's clear so sunlight can pass through. Also, be sure it is NOT sealed. This process releases Oxygen from your bricks, and this can build up pressure in a sealed vessel)
      How to start it up:
      1-Pour an amount of Hydrogen Peroxide into your vessel that will give the amount of pieces you're cleaning enough space to float and spin around. I used roughly 1/3rd of my bottle for this test.
      2-Drop in half a teaspoon to a teaspoon of the Oxy ingredient into some hot water just to mostly dissolve it, then drop it into your Hydrogen Peroxide. Less is more here. If you add too much, you can damage the surface of your bricks, so really just add a little bit. You can always add more if the reaction isn't occurring.
      3-Drop in your LEGOs and shake/stir them around.
      4-Leave them soaking in the sun (ideally) or under a UV lamp makes this process take a few hours versus an entire day (or two depending on the yellow-ness of your LEGOs). If using a lamp, be sure the lamp isn't so close as to heat the mixture, as the heat will be problematic to the process.
      5-Come back to check on the vessel every hour/two hours and shake it around so as to make sure each face of your LEGOs gets roughly equal time in the sun.
      You will know the process is working if small bubbles are forming around your LEGO bricks and floating upward. Check for this at the first hour. If the mixture is dormant, add a TINY bit more Oxy to the mixture and repeat until you are sure the reaction is taking place.
      Depending on the yellowing of your bricks, you may need to soak these for as little as 3 or 4 hours (in the sun) or as long as a full day or two. The main rule is patience. Your bricks have taken years to yellow. You can burn a day or two reversing it. KEEP IN MIND, this liquid mixture will only be "active" for about 2-3 days. Up until then feel free to re-use the same mixture on your parts!
      fSo onto the interesting part, my own test results!
      Here's my test set of pieces. The slopes in the upper left corner are NEW white pieces to show the color difference. These are all from my 15+ year old collection save the 4x8 plate which was part of my recent Bricklink order. I tried to get a variance of shapes but in general tried to pick out some of my worst offenders:

      After about a 6-hour soak in the darkness (started this process at about midnight) and about 2 1/2 hours in the sunlight, this is the same set of pieces after being soaked in the Retr0Bright mixture, again the slopes in the upper left corner are NEW white pieces:
      Some of the yellowing is still visible on some of the pieces, but in general this process is amazing. I can easily soak these again for another run and I think they'll be indistinguishable from new bricks. If some of your are concerned about printed pieces, multiple tests by others have shown that printed LEGOs survive just fine, and if anything only fade a small amount in cases where the piece was severely yellowed and had to be soaked for a longer time period. Stickers will likely come off of pieces using this method.
      There are also people who recommend cleaning your LEGOs beforehand, which I did not (as this was a quick proof-of-concept test). I have heard people running their LEGOs through cool cycles on their dishwashers or individually scrubbing them with toothbrushes or sonic toothbrushes. This really just removes any dirt or material from the LEGO and doesn't affect the chemical reaction.
      For some references on others experiences and some other information for those unsure of submitting their LEGOs to chemicals, here are some links I used for background research:
      Removing Yellowing from Plastics
      LEGO Whitening: A LEGO creation by Eggy Pop: MOCpages.com
      LEGO Whitening- Retr0Bright - home - Discussion
      The Brothers Brick

      This is a mostly copy-paste of a post I did awhile back for my Mobile Frame Hangar buddies, but it's definitely still relevant. I've since used this process to de-yellow a large amount of my old bricks, and the results were a lot better on my second run using a high concentration of Hydrogen Peroxide that you can source from beauty shops.
    • Fcbarcelona101
      Whether it is an exaggeration or not, in popular culture there has always been the perception of some sort of a friendly rivalry between the two main public service branches, the police and fire departments. I really have no idea about how big this rivalry, or if it even exists, in the real world, but I thought it would be fun to play with the idea in the context one the LEGO CITY theme, so later we will be examining which of the two has been the better performer over the years.
      Before we do that though, I feel necessary to give a little background on the theme overall, even if it has been discussed some in previous articles. The CITY theme was first released in 2005 to replace World City as the next theme to feature most of the “town” sets LEGO has been released over more than a decade. At the time this article was written, the theme overall presented a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.03%, a figure above the average LEGO theme of 11.36 %. This could be attributed to the popularity of the theme with some of the most important LEGO customers, those being kids and AFOLs, due to some of the characteristics of the sets themselves that are out of the scope of this article. Let’s now focus specifically on the performance of Police and Fire themed sets.
      Over the course of the years, Police and Fire sets have been one of the staples LEGO keeps producing almost continuously. Having your own fire or police station forms part of almost every single kid’s dream while growing up, and LEGO understands and capitalizes on that really well by always expanding both of those sub-themes and keeping them on the shelves year after year. Even more, AFOLs have proven to be another group that is very interested in the sets, not so much for traditional play but for recreating large and realistic looking cities.
      Among both sub-themes, there has been a long list of really nice and varied sets; small, large, stations, boats, planes are just some examples. Furthermore, LEGO has been releasing some very interesting sets that deviate some of the more traditional ones we named before, like the more recent Police Dog Van or Bank and Money transfer, that add some more depth and realism to any city.
      From an investor’s standpoint, there seems to be some sort of animosity towards some of the CITY sets that fall into the fire or police category, mostly due to something stated above: there are a lot of remakes and re-releases. This is an issue that a lot of investors worry a lot about while making their investment decision, because it would appear that if a set that retired just two years ago is re-released after such a short period of time, collectors and fans would opt for the newer and cheaper version rather than going for the old version that usually goes for above MSRP.
      While some investors are right in their perception concerning remakes and their negative impact on growth, this does not necessarily mean that sets are investment losers. From some of the information you will see a little bit later in the article, you will be able to verify that several of the sets that have been re-released in some form or the other most of the time are very strong performers. In the case of CITY police and fire sets, the real issue with remakes is not really that hampers long term growth, but rather that the sets do not usually provide the possibility of making a decent return shortly after retirement (within a year of EOL). Some of these sets do take some time to appreciate substantially, but in the end they DO perform, so I would really recommend them only to those who really have a long term investment horizon rather than a short one.
      Let’s now go into detail a little bit more. The following tables present all the sets that have been retired so far on both the police and fire sub-themes, leaving out the promotional sets and those that have less than 50 pieces.
      Police

      Fire

      OVERALL WINNER: Police
      *Note that the Police sub-theme has more recently retired sets than Fire does, a factor that could skew the CAGR higher.
      It appears from the tables above that CITY police sets easily beat fire themed ones (I’m sure some of the law enforcement related members in the forums will be happy with those results). The average CAGR for police sets is around 15 %, while the fire themed sets “only” grow at about 10.6 % per year. Interesting to note is the fact that if we divided this themes out from the larger CITY and place each on Brickpicker’s overall them CAGR, police sets would place well above the LEGO average CAGR, while fire sets would place slightly below.
      Going deeper into the numbers there are several things that I think are important to examine in this article. Note that each sub-theme could be divided even further in some categories like Stations, Boats, Helicopters and so on, that in my opinion give us a little more information about which specifics sets tend to do better than the rest overall.
      First of all, you will be able to note that the station type sets, the ones that are re-released most of the time, do end up appreciating pretty well in the long term. In some cases they even turn out to be extremely good performers (7945 and 7744), while some of the newer ones, as you can see, have appreciated very slowly since they were retired. This trend fits well with what I talked about in a previous section.
      A second thing I wanted to highlight was which sets have usually been the best performers among both themes. If you take a look at the table above, a very specific type of set immediately jumps out on both sub-themes: Boats. As it was examined on a previous EC article, boats and ships have usually been really solid choices when it comes to LEGO investing, and it would appear that also applies when considering smaller CITY sets. The 7906 and 7207 Fire Boats, along with the less traditional 7944 Hovercraft, have all more than doubled in value, while the 7287 and 7899 Police Boats have performed in a very similar fashion.
      Finally, as with every theme, there have been some sets that have really not performed as good as we would like. Having said that, we really can’t expect every single set to be an investment home run, and it really all comes down to being able to pick the right sets at the right price.
      Overall, I think you should be pretty satisfied by the overall performance of most Police and Fire themed sets. Even though you don’t really hear that many good things about them, mostly because they are there ALL THE TIME, their historical performance has proven to be a solid one, so you can definitely be sure that by putting a little work and research into these sets they can become a very important part of your diversified brickfolio.
      To conclude, let’s go ahead and examine some of the CITY fire and police sets currently available:
      7498 Police Station VS. 60004 Fire Station


      Comments: These are the two most recent stations on both sub-themes, and they are extremely similar in almost every significant aspect. Both stations have pretty much the same amount of pieces, same MSRP and therefore same Price Per Piece ratio, also at first sight, you will note that even the building structures share some of the same design elements.
      The Fire Station was just released a few months ago, while the Police Station is rumored to be closing in to retirement. It is somewhat hard at this point to determine which one will perform better in the secondary market, but just basing of historical data I would have to go with the Police Station.
      WINNER: Police
      60008 Museum Break-In VS. 4209 Fire Plane


      Comments: The Museum Break-In set is one of those more unique sets that LEGO has been releasing more and more trying to expand the variety of Fire and Police sets beyond the more traditional sets. The set is really very cool looking and has some very nice details that enhance the looks of the recreated scene, like some paintings and other artifacts that the thieves are looking to remove, the museum itself, and the police helicopter. On the other hand we have the Fire Plane that is one of the best looking fire sets currently available, in my opinion. The plane comes with several 1x1 blue translucent bricks that are used to simulate the water dropping from the compartment to extinguish the fire, as well as some other nice features like a fire truck (that connects to the plane as well), a couple of “burning” trees and some other minor accessories. As much as I also like the Museum Break-In, LEGO planes overall have proven to be really great performers, so if I had to pick, I would definitely invest on the Fire Plane.
      WINNER: Fire
      4439 Heavy Lift HelicopterVS.60010 Fire Helicopter


      Comments: The 4439 Heavy Lift Helicopter is a really cool design based on a helicopter design that is not seen that often in LEGO sets, if ever. The body of the helicopter is really big and comes with two rotors, one in the front and one in the back. On the fire side of things, we have the 60010 Fire Helicopter that has a very high price per piece in comparison, mostly due to the inclusion of the motorized winch piece. Leaving that aside, the helicopter is more traditional looking, but the set does come with an extra section where “fuel” canisters appear to have caught fire, so there is extra playability with that too. Both models have things I consider very unique, and that does not allow me to pick a winner in this match up.
      Draw
      7288 Mobile Police Unit VS. 4430 Fire Transporter


      Comments: The Mobile Police Unit shares some similarities with the retired Police Command Centre, as they are both mobile police units. The performance of the Command Centre has not been that good at this point, and it has been retired already for a little more than two years. There are really not any redeeming features that would make me assume that this newer version will perform any better.
      The 4430 Fire Transporter is a Toys R Us exclusive, something that could be considered a positive aspect since its availability will be fairly limited, but that not always translates into great future returns. Other than that, the set is very interesting and a mobile command center kind of set seemed to be missing from the fire sub-theme.
      Winner: Fire
      60007 High Speed Chase VS. 60005 Fire Boat


      Comments: The High Speed Chase set is pretty cool on its own, as it includes a Chase McCain minifig, along with some features that are necessary in every high speed chase: a patrol car/truck, motorcycle and a very fast looking sports car. There are also some minor features like the spike strip, barriers and cones.
      Having said that, I really think there is no way for the police set to be able to beat the Fire Boat. As we have talked about before, boats in both themes have proven to be one of the most successful investment choices along the years, and I really see no reason for this last version to be the exception.
      Winner: Fire
      Final Tally for Current Sets: Police 1 VS. Fire 3 (1 Draw)
      So, despite Police sets being historically better performers than Fire ones, I really think that the current selection tilts the balance more in favor of the latter.
      These sets examined above are not the only ones that are currently available, just the ones I really wanted to cover and that I felt could match up. The most important set I left out of this analysis was the 4440 Forest Police Station, that at this point is really one of a kind and could turn out to be a great investment as well.
      Now that we finished that, I hope at least some of you who were not thinking that much about CITY fire and police sets as an investment may change your minds and at least take a closer look at some of them, there is really the possibility to earn great returns on some of these, especially boat and plane sets!
      Thanks for reading
    • Quacs
      I just pulled this off the brickultra.com website. Apparently, TLG is finally getting around to releasing a TMNT polybag. Here's what it looks like, and the link to brickultra's story:

      http://brickultra.com/new-lego-tmnt-polybag-30270/
      My take: I think this is another in a long line of questionable decisions made by TLG regarding the TMNT theme. The first polybag should be an enticement to buy more of the theme, and I really question whether the best approach was to include a "Krang in the Robot" minifig. It's already included in the Shellraiser Street Chase set, and while Krang is an important enemy to the turtles, Shredder should be their primary concern.
      In a broader sense, I think the stars of this entire theme are the turtle minifigs, so why not include one of them in the first polybag?
      Also, while I understand flick missiles are popular add-ins to polybags since they give a small set some instant playability, it's still a flick missile. Further marginalizing the flick missile is the ridiculous "set-up" that Krang is shooting at. They appear to be painted boxes intended to mimic the turtles, but why would anyone ever fire a missile at a group of painted boxes? This is what a 7 year old does with a beebee gun, not a technologically advanced missile-firing artillery cannon.
      If you can't tell, I've been very disappointed with the TMNT theme. The figs are phenomenal, but everything else has been a hot mess. From the anchor set not being the largest of the theme to the numerous complaints about the fragility of the Shellraiser set, it appears TLG (and whoever licenses TMNT to Lego) has really mucked this theme up.
      That said, I think the lair has a chance to provide decent returns in the secondary market. It's got Splinter and two Ninja Turtles: Leonardo and Raphael. The turtle lair is neat looking, and a base, so it has nice realism, detail and playability.
      I will not be going anywhere near the rest of the theme.
       
    • Fcbarcelona101
      In this 3rd Edition of the Re-Make Impact Evaluation section I will be focusing my analysis on a set that may not be one of the most noticed or liked by investors and collectors: the Gungan Sub from The Phantom Menace.
      If you are even remotely aware of the Star Wars franchise, then you more than likely know The Phantom Menace is considered by a large majority of the fans as the worst movie produced under the whole series. What makes it even... better? is the fact that the ship itself is related to the most annoying creatures in the Star Wars universe: the Gungans. All of these factors certainly don't help this set's popularity with the SW community, but as the target demographic for this set is probably young kids and teens that grew up under the new trilogy, I can't really say that LEGO made a mistake releasing this set. We just have to live with it.
      This version of the Gungan Sub is not the first released by LEGO, however, as they did one way back when the movie was first released in 1999. Below you will find a table comparing the most important statistics of both versions:

      You can see above that both sets were are very similar in various aspects. Before I forget, the older version retailed for $50 while the new one does for $70.
      Let's now evaluate the numbers that will help us determine the impact the 2012 version had on its predecessor from 1999

      I think it is pretty clear from the graph above that the impact of the announcement and released of set 9499 had a huge negative effect on the original version. Set 7161 dropped significantly over the past year (around 38%) and I think most of that drop is as a result of the new version. For a set of this kind that I believe it's not iconic at all, the impact of a having a new and greatly improved version is something that will almost always result in depreciation of the older model. When parents and other customers can go ahead and pay even retail price for the better version ($70) instead of paying the secondary market prices of the old version, they will almost always go with the re-make. This has as a consequence a drop in demand for the older set and a drop in price as well.
      In this particular case, the older set took such a big hit that was even selling below the market value of the newer version for a couple of months, coincidentally those months with the highest demand for LEGO. So far, this has been actually one of the most extreme examples I have come accross so far when evaluating set remakes, and I think it goes back to the fact that the main buyer of this set are parents getting it for their kids and not hard core collectors. Once the cheaper alternative was released those parents simply shifted their money towards it and forgot about the older version.
      7161 has had a small recovery over the past couple of months, but the damage is already done. I don't see this set coming back up to its pre-9499 levels, and the data should serve as a lesson of why holding sets for a really long time can become a very costly strategy.
      Thanks for reading!
    • Grolim
      Remakes, clones, variants, redo’s, copies, call them what you will but they play a big part in the savvy investors thinking. Especially in the most beloved Star Wars theme. There is almost always a remake or two, or more, in every new wave of Star Wars themed Lego sets that are released these days. In fact it has become one of the common criticisms of the theme across many Internet fan sites and discussion forums.
      So what impact do remakes really have on secondary market prices, both on the old set(s) and on the newly introduced one? Is it always a negative impact? And can we predict what sets may be remade in the future?
      First we need to look at what sets have had remakes, what is the scope of the issue here? Well if you put the search term “X-Wing” into Brickpicker or another Lego set database you’ll get 12 results of sets with X-Wing in the name. That is a huge amount of sets based around one type of ship. For the scope of this article I’m only going to be looking at full sized models i.e. I will exclude mini-builds, polybags, and the planet series. Information on those could be an article on their own and I want to examine what the effects of remakes are for the larger sets that are more commonly used as investments. Small polybag sized sets aren’t really going to influence a large scale model that much. I’ll also be excluding any set bundles like 65145 as there is insufficient data on those.
      Here is a chart showing all the Star Wars remakes I could find:

      This shows there are 36 different combinations of remakes, far more than I would have thought. 20 subjects have a twin, 10 belong to a group of three, 4 groupings of four sets, the mighty Millennium Falcon has 5 incarnations, and the X-Wing has a staggering 7 different versions! Hopefully I’ve captured them all, but there may be one or two I’ve missed (sometimes it can be hard to spot a remake if the names aren’t similar). There are also a few grey areas around what exactly should be considered a remake, for example I’ve excluded the 4501 Mos Eisley Cantina from the Landspeeder numbers even though it has a Landspeeder just because I think the focus of the set is wider than that vehicle. There’s also the R2-D2 Technic set with the new UCS model, but I feel they are so different they should be separate.
      OK, so how do these remakes affect the secondary market prices of sets? Well it can be a little hard to determine, especially as we don’t have perfect and complete information available. Ideally, we would be able to go back right to a sets’ release date and view monthly current prices all the way. We can’t though. What we do have is the CAGR of each set over it’s time since release as well as rates of return for the last 24 months, 12 months, 6 months, and 1 month, which are based on the current market price changes over those periods according to Brickpicker data sourced from Ebay US. (Data from other Ebay regions have recently been added but will take time to build historical information).
      Examining the return rates of sets that have had a remake vs those that have not may provide us some insight into how a remake may affect values. Using 24 month and 12 month rates of return are probably our best option as we don’t have to go back to the release date of a set. Using those measures is also more relevant to current investment trends. Likewise, comparing the return rates of sets that were for example released in 2004 and then 2007 is difficult as we can’t really examine the impact of the 2007 set on the 2004 set. So what I have decided to do is look at all the sets that have had a recently released (within the last 2 years) remake.
      Taking all our Star Wars sets released from 2011 and prior that have had a remake in either 2012 or 2013 we have 22 sets across 11 different subjects (vehicle or set types)(also excluded the advent calendar). Looking up all 22 sets and getting their respective 1 year return rates from the awesome Brickpicker tables, we can calculate an average of -8.69% return across them all. That is quite a drop! I then looked up all the rest of the Star Wars sets that have no remakes at all, so have only had 1 set made on that particular subject. There are 138 of these sets and their average 1 year return rate is -1.62%. That means that in the last year their secondary market price on Ebay US has shrunk by an average of -1.62%. (As an aside I was surprised by these negative 1 year return rates, I had to check my data a few times but it was correct. This is a curious result, what is causing it? Possibly Star Wars Lego fans moving into the LOTR theme is one theory I thought of, but looking into that would be a whole other article!).
      I also took all the sets released in 2010 or prior and looked at their 2 year return rates (the total percentage gain you would have if you bought the set 2 years ago at the market price and sold it at the market price now). There are 31 different sets across 17 different subjects that have had a remake in 2011 or later. For these 31 sets the average 2 year return rate is 1.81%. Not a great result for 2 years storage time. For comparison, looking at the Star Wars sets that have not had any remakes at all, found 128 sets and their average 2 year return rate was 13.35%.
      These results can perhaps be visualized a little better in the chart below:

      As you can see, this analysis has provided solid evidence that remakes or clones negatively affects the secondary market price growth of the original or earlier released versions.
      Let’s look at some specific examples that should help to illustrate this issue.

      The above graph shows prices for the two V-Wing sets. 7915 was released in 2011 and has stopped the price growth in the older 6205 set for a period of time. Looking at raw prices is interesting, but we can examine this effect more closely by taking the growth rate of the set price from period to period i.e. the rate of change from one period to the next in the market price. Lets look at that for the V-Wing sets:

      This shows that once the newer 7915 set was released there was a dramatic drop in the growth rate of the older 6205 set. This was alongside the traditional negative growth for 7915 that we see in a new retail set as people take advantage of regular store discounts to obtain the set below retail prices. Both sets then track each other back to more normal positive growth rates in the period from 6 months ago to last month, before both taking a bit of a dip in the most recent price results.
      Notes on the above, and subsequent, graphs:
      Care should be taken when interpreting the graphs in that the X-Axis (horizontal time period) is not linear. i.e. it does not follow regular intervals. Yearly growth rates are presented up until the “6 months ago” point at which time the gap we are measuring is actually 6 months, then to the “last month” point where the gap is only 5 months, and finally the “current” point which is only 1 month of growth between our current market price and what it was 1 month ago. Often the shorter gaps will have lower growth numbers or tend to be closer to zero, that makes sense as growth over a whole year is often greater (either positive or negative) than just a month. Given the above issue, it is important to note that the purpose of the graphs is to compare between sets, and not necessarily to look at the growth trend for any one set. (If you want to look at one set go to the Brickpicker page for that set and look at the excellent graphs and tables available there). We only have data for the retail price, the 2 years ago, 1 year, 6 months, 1 month, and current prices. Therefore, for older sets, to predict what the price was between the sets’ release year and 2 years ago it was necessary to take the retail price and the 2 years ago price and then average out the price movement across the intervening years. This is almost definitely not accurate, but it is the best we can do unless we take a guess at how a set may dip after release to then rise at EOL, but that will be different for every set. I have shown that difference in the X-Wing graph later on. Data was taken from the May-13 release of Brickpicker data that was for the period ending Apr-13 Lets have another look at another clear example. What better than the aptly named Clone Turbo Tank. Two great sets, 7261 released in 2005 followed by 8098 in 2010, both of similar size and design.

      Again, the original set has strong price growth before the release of the remake curtails and depresses it. Looking at the percentage growth period to period it becomes even more apparent:

      The new set comes in and it’s greatly received and immediately shows growth while its predecessor plummets before returning to a more normal growth.
      Here is a more another interesting example. Looking at just the 2 most recently released Y-Wing sets. The 8037 released in 2009 and the new 9495 released last year:

      Because the 8037 set was released in 2009 and most likely was available for perhaps 18-24 months on retail shelves we get a nice view of the dip in price to 2011 for our first available price measuring point. The set goes EOL and immediately jumps 25% only then to have the 9495 come along and take the wind out of its growth sales.
      How about when the newly released set is a better model? Perhaps a good example is the recent 9492 TIE Fighter which is an improvement over the old 7263 model.

      The old 7263 enjoys moderate growth until the new improved 9492 is released, whereby it drops sharply. The 9492 drops initially as well, providing a text book example of heavy retail discounting affecting the Ebay price. Both sets then recover a little and their growth rates track almost identical patterns. I had expected a bit more of a drop for the old model here though as I think that the new one without the blue colors is so much better, but perhaps I’m a little biased and the general public don’t share that view.
      Another good example of an upgraded set is the Imperial shuttle. The recently released and newly retired 10212 UCS Imperial Shuttle has had an impact on the prior 7264 Imperial Inspection that was also a very nice set.

      7264 saw very healthy growth through to 2012. The release of the new UCS set appears to have taken a little while to have impacted unlike some of the immediate impacts we have seen before. This may be due to the 10212 being released in the later part of 2010 and not having many discounts for a while. But 6 months ago as retail discounts for it occurred and rumours of its imminent retiring circulated, the increase in demand pushed down our 7264 set and it is perhaps not yet recovered as the 10212 takes off after recent EOL.
      OK, lets get a little more complex and check out some examples of multiple releases. The Millennium Falcon has had 5 different decent sized sets released over time. It’s an iconic part of the Star Wars universe and obviously very popular, so The Lego Group have released new version fairly regularly. Also, unlike the X-Wing it is a unique ship i.e. there is only one Millennium Falcon, while the X-Wing is a class of ships with a few different variations. The raw price graph is dominated by the juggernaut that is 10179 the UCS set, so lets just look at the growth percentages:

      Things look a bit messy, even after not including the 7190 set from 2000, but upon closer examination you can see the effects each new remake has had on the prior versions. The orange shaded area highlights the most interesting point for which we have good data. This is where the most recent set, 7965, was released in 2011 and shows the subsequent drop in all the sets price growth in 2012. That is for all except the phenomenal 10179, it seems this UCS behemoth is impervious to the power of the clones!
      The X-Wing is an even more complex situation, with 7 large sets across history including the recently released 10240 UCS version and another one, 9493, still on retail shelves. Impacts on the very early versions are hard to examine so let’s look at the four most recent sets:
      There is a lot of information contained in the above chart. Firstly, I’ve included a dotted path for 6212 which I think gives a possibly more accurate view of what the trend for this set would have been in the past. As I’ve already stated, we only have the retail price and the 2011 price as markers to go by, so drawing a straight growth line between them is the most consistent thing we can do. But there would most likely have been a drop after retail release reflecting discounting, before recovering and moving into high positive growth after EOL. The size and timing of the dip and recovery will differ between sets a bit though.
      Second, the blue shaded area shows us that when 9493 was released there was an associated drop in price growth for the existing 6212 and 4502 sets. Thirdly, when the 10240 was released last month there was a sharp drop in that next most recent 9493 set and a slightly smaller one for the old 4502. But the 6212 has recovered a little and this shows it may come back to a more normal growth trajectory. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in future months as the new 10240 UCS set continues at retail and the 9493 goes EOL at some stage. It would also be interesting to look at the effects on the other UCS X-Wing 7191 set once we have more time periods.
      In summary I think the evidence is very clear that remakes do indeed affect the secondary market price of the older versions. The magnitude of that impact is perhaps hard to tell at an individual case level as there are other contributing factors such as:
      The age gap between the remakes Is the set very similar in size and retail price as the original – probably increases the impact Is the set an improvement on the older model? Retail discounting of the new set UCS sets possibly immune, or at least far less influenced? Is the theme itself, or the Lego market in general, on the decline, or experiencing a soft spot in growth? On average though it would appear that that remakes effect values by lowering growth by around 6 to 7 percentage points per year for a couple of years before recovering to more steady, but lower, growth paths. Over time we will have more data that should help us judge the materiality of the suppression of longer term growth.
      Future Clones?
      Can we use our knowledge of past remakes to perhaps predict what sets that Lego may decide to do a remake of in the future? This would help us make investing decisions either by avoiding possible remake sets or by not holding them for too long.
      The Star Wars theme is quite mature, there are limited options available for new ships, vehicles or settings on which to base a Lego set on. There are a few, but they tend to be from more obscure parts of the Star Wars universe and don’t have the wide appeal that well known iconic subjects do. The saving grace may be the new Star Wars movies being made by Disney, which should open up a lot more possibilities, both for new set subjects and for remakes of old ones that make a new movie appearance.
      Also it would seem that the very iconic ships such as the X-Wing, Millennium Falcon, and to a lesser degree the other “Wing” type fighters, Slave I, Walkers, and Shuttles all seem destined to have regular remakes. I’d be hesitant to hold onto any of those models that weren’t a UCS one for any long length of time.
      Of the currently remade models presented in the first table we can look for sets that have been remade before but the latest version is now getting a bit old. The AT-ST, Snowspeeder, Jedi Starfighter, and TIE Interceptor are all candidates for a possible new model.
      Looking into the other Star Wars sets that have not had a remake may throw up some possibilities. I have gone through 136 sets in this category and here are a few likely candidates in my opinion:
      C-3P0 Cloud City Darth Vader Gungan Patrol Mos Eisley Cantina MTT Rogue Shadow Sandcrawler Stormtrooper TIE Bomber TIE Crawler TIE Advanced Trade Federation AAT No doubt I’ve missed a few and Lego are never that predictable when it comes to future releases, but I think there exists a decent possibility that we’ll see sets based around some of those subjects again.
      Remakes occur for a reason. The Lego Group puts a lot of time into deciding new sets and bases a large part of those decisions off previous sales demand. Remakes are usually done on popular subject material and therefore have higher demand, leading to higher demand on the secondary market. Set subjects of only one model are usually more obscure and have less general appeal, so should in theory have less demand. A classic case of supply and demand at work. Higher demand leads to higher supply, which suppresses prices in the secondary market. Imagine if there was only one X-Wing model ever released, the secondary price for that would be astronomical!
      So in conclusion, beware of those clones! Wise investment decisions should be based around as much knowledge as possible, and the knowledge that a new set is about to come out based on a subject that is the same as one you have stashed away in the form of an earlier version, means you should seriously consider liquidising your investment pronto. Don’t get hit by an attack of the clones!


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