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    • Quacs
      Bo and Luke Duke, the eponymous leads of the early 80's hit TV show The Dukes of Hazzard, were two rural Georgia “good ol’ boy” moonshiners that were always on the run from the show’s villain, Hazzard County Commissioner “Boss” Hogg. The show's story arc revolved around the efforts of Hogg and his sidekick, Roscoe P. Coltrane, to intimidate the Duke cousins into leaving them alone to hatch their nefarious, and often times illegal, schemes. Inevitably, Bo and Luke would wriggle out of Hogg’s grasp and thwart his plans, leaving “Boss” frustrated from another stunt gone awry.
      Bo’s and Luke’s travails provide a humorous parallel to the recent plight of Lego resellers. While resellers aren’t doing anything illegal (like moonshining), and The Lego Company (TLC) isn’t nearly as bumbling or nefarious as the oft-thwarted Hogg, there seems to be an emerging “cat and mouse” game akin to our favorite 80’s show plots between TLC and Lego resellers. In the recent past, Lego has made a number of decisions that could have a profound effect on the secondary market, and they still have other options that could further alter the resale market. To date, the biggest red flag for investors should be Lego’s recent crackdown on resellers. In the past, TLC allowed wholesale buyers to resell sets in any manner they chose, and many enterprising folk used eBay, Bricklink, Amazon, and other online marketplaces to sell these sets. Some flipped these sets quickly for retail price, while others bought and held until EOL for larger profits. However, TLC recently decided to stop this practice by limiting sales to retailers with a brick and mortar retail store, and forcing every retailer to sell 75% of their sets. After instituting this policy, TLC has now begun to flag buyers that make high volume purchases from Lego S@H and The Lego Store, and halted sales to these perceived resellers. In a year, TLC has swung the pendulum hard against resellers, and there’s no reason to believe it will stop.
      So, what else will TLC do to discourage reselling and make Bo's and Luke's life miserable? In simple terms, TLC can either try to limit demand, or increase supply. I have a hard time believing TLC would specifically ever try to limit demand of their own product, even in the secondary market, so their primary weapon is to alter supply. Other industries have found ways to accomplish this in a variety of ways that TLC could emulate, so here are some that may apply:
      Re-releasing retired sets
      While there is little precedent for this, it’s an option open to TLC and one they may be testing soon. Remember 7641 City Corner? It’s a set from the City theme that was released in 2009 and retired in 2011. It has enjoyed a profitable retirement, earning a nearly 85% ROI in a little under two years. According to Brickset.com, this set is scheduled to be released again soon under a new number, 60031. Everything else about the set appears to be the same: piece count, design and box all appear to be unchanged.
      What will a re-release do to the secondary market value of an existing set? FCBarcelona and Grolim, BP members and bloggers extraordinaire, have already outlined the effect “remakes”, or models that underwent a makeover, have had on retired sets in this blog (look for any entries with “Remake”), and this post respectively. To paraphrase, remakes were found to decrease the value of retired sets, and in some cases significantly. By extrapolating that concept, and by using our own common sense, we can assume releasing the exact same set a second time would crater the secondary value of the existing set. If TLC decides to begin re-releasing more retired sets to discourage speculative hoarding, investors could be left holding sets for a lot longer than originally planned. Even the threat of a strategic re-release or two may discourage investors from hoarding. In this scenario, investing in licensed sets would likely become more popular since TLC wouldn't be able to re-release any set with a retired license.
      Authorized Lego Reseller
      TLC could also get into the secondary market game to control retired set pricing. If this sounds absurd, keep in mind that many US sports teams have opened sanctioned ticket reselling portals for their own event tickets to curb scalping problems. A secondary market platform run by TLC could provide Lego a second “bite at the apple” and effectively set retired prices, especially on the low end. This is probably an unrealistic option since resale isn’t part of their core business, and I doubt TLC would divert any effort or resources from their core competency. Yet, it still remains an option to TLC, and it would likely have disastrous consequences for hoarders.
      Eliminate Exclusives
      Another way to tamp down the secondary market is to eliminate “exclusives” and “limited edition” sets. These are sets with limited production runs and a history of strong secondary market returns. While this would be a radical departure from their marketing strategy and is highly unlikely to happen, it would likely weed out a large percentage of the highest earning EOL performers. TLC would likely lose a substantial portion of their adult fan base if they ever did this, so I doubt they would ever consider this an option.
      Flood the Primary Market
      Another bullet in TLC’s arsenal is to flood the primary market with their sets, yet the severe negative consequences for TLC’s products and retail partners make this tactic less probable than any of the previous options. While this tactic would primarily affect hoarders, the resultant decrease in price from a flood of new sets could be a boon to flippers who sell in higher volumes for smaller margins. Imagine the falling prices on Amazon if TLC doubled production! I don’t believe TLC would enact any policy that would benefit one group of resellers at the expense of another group, and I know they would never knowingly reduce the perceived value of the Lego product line by increasing supply of their sets. This will not happen either.
      Right of First Refusal
      In the timeshare industry, timeshare and vacation club companies that sell properties often times add Rights of First Refusal into their contracts with new timeshare owners. This clauses forces ANY owner of the timeshare that wants to sell the property to give the timeshare/vacation club operator “first dibs” on buying the property from the seller, and allows the timeshare/vacation club operator to set the price for their resale properties. While this option is logistically impossible for TLC and their near-commodity products, it’s illustrative of another option a company has to set or control the price of their resale merchandise.
      While TLC may be emerging as a primary threat to resellers, there are still other hazards that face Lego investors today. These threats are all derived from either an increase in market supply, or a drop in market demand.
      While it’s been well chronicled in past blog articles, a speculative bubble always remains a possibility. However, it's important to define exactly what a speculative bubble is so that Brickpickers understand its risk. A speculative bubble, by definition, occurs when the value of a product greatly exceeds its “intrinsic value”. This increase in value can be fueled by speculation, by the presence of monetary liquidity in the market, or both. While “intrinsic value” is an abstract term, it’s easy to estimate it. Since a Lego set is nothing more than the sum of its parts, its “intrinsic value” is the part-out price. A quick look at Bricklink.com shows investors the value of a parted-out Lego set based upon sold prices of these pieces. Without reviewing every Lego set’s part-out price, a quick glance shows that many sets never perform as well as their part-out value. Until a large percentage of just-retired Lego sets are selling for significantly higher prices than their part-out value, there will not be a speculative bubble for Lego as a whole. That doesn’t mean a bubble will NEVER happen, so check the part-out values of your preferred investment themes sporadically to see if you notice a divergence between Brickpicker's value and the part out value.
      Another potential threat to the Lego secondary market is the refinement of 3d printing. BP member Yellow eloquently outlined concerns from 3D printing here, yet I believe that 3D printing’s physical constraints make copying Lego bricks nearly impossible, especially in the next 5-10 years. Lego uses ultra-precise injection molding with tolerances that are many factors tighter than current 3D printing can provide. Without meeting these tolerances, 3D printed bricks will not bite or grab like an injection-molded brick, rendering these copies useless to Lego fans.
      Finally, if the demand for a product in any market erodes, both the primary and secondary market prices will suffer, and previously realized ROIs will erode in step. In our case, this actually can be roughly verified by reviewing sales figures from TLC’s annual report. While it doesn’t specify a split between theme sales, you can monitor yearly sales figures and read the notes to get TLC’s opinion on why sales have reacted accordingly. Fortunately, TLC appears to be successfully designing new product lines, opening new licenses, and exploring new distribution channels for its brand, so any demand erosion would have to come from an external market shock which is nearly impossible to predict.
      The Lego secondary market is not foolproof, and it’s not riskless. Threats to this market will always emerge, so it’s incumbent on the savvy investor to continuously monitor the market for clues to where it’s going. Savvy investors, much like Bo and Luke, will continue to escape "Boss" Hogg, and make money!
      As always, invest accordingly.
       
    • Fcbarcelona101
      In this entry of our BrickIndex Spotlight section we will be analyzing yet another set from the Ultimate Collector's Series, even if this one is a model that is not particularly talked about much in the forums.
      In the latest data update, the Imperial AT-ST place in the Top 5 of best performing sets over the past 6 months. First of all, the model included a little more than 1,000 pieces making it one of the smallest sets released under the UCS. This in and on itself is not necessarily a bad thing, as the really small Naboo Starfighter would gladly remind us. The MSRP for the set was $ 80 since its release in 2006, so it was also pretty affordable.
      I was not really paying too much attention at LEGO investing or collecting at that point in time, so I really can't comment on what kind of reception the model got from the community. Having said that, we are here not so much to recount the past but rather to analyze the present trends to determine the future prospects of the set, so let's get to the numbers from the past two years and then focus a little more into more recent data.
       

      As one would expect, the trend of this set since 2011 has been a very positive one, especially significant when you consider that the set retired sometime in 2009. From 2011 to now, the set has increased almost 114%, while in the past year it has gone up a very respectable 49%. Let's close in the more recent data, and along with the information above try to determine where the set may be going in the near future.

       

      Over the past 12 months, this set has been the second best selling of the entire UCS when you consider only retired sets with almost 400 copies (new and used). The only model that tops that figure is the recently retired Imperial Shuttle, that considering it was widely available at retail over the past year is no surprise that it is in the top spot. This information tells us that the Imperial AT-ST is a very popular and really good seller in the secondary market, be it for the vehicle it is based in or just because it currently is one of the most affordable UCS sets that have been retired.
      On the second graph you will see the changes in market value of the set over the last year. The AT-ST has been going up in value for most of the past 12 months, with the notable exception in the month of December when you can clearly see the December Effect once again hitting a big set pretty hard as far as value is concerned. Other than that, the set is now closing in to being worth $ 250, and with a 8% increase over the past month I would not be surprised if it reached that amount this month.
      So, what can we do all this information? I can tell you that a lot of investors could take advantage of the relative affordable price of this set even in MISB condition. I see a lot of room for growth, and if you pay attention you will notice that the pace seems to be picking up, with the set increasing 50% over the past year but 31% over the past six months AND 8% over the past month alone! This model is still a great investment for those with the capital and storage space, but you better act fast!
      Recommendation: Strong Buy
       
    • Quacs
      Happy 4th of July to everyone Stateside, and happy Thursday to everyone else! I wanted to update my blog with an admittedly overdue post. Today, I wanted to point everyone's attention to a very interesting recent trend I have been following: the deals on Technic that have recently been posted on Amazon UK. I have actually taken advantage of two of the recent sales and I couldn't be happier. Yet, the more I've picked through Lego listings on Amazon UK, the more Technic deals appear to have popped up. In the past month, here are the sets, MSRP, and sales pricing we've seen on Technic sets alone:
      These prices include shipping costs to the US
      Set #/Name - MSRP US - Amazon UK pricing GBP/USD - % discount
      9396 Rescue Helicopter - $120.00 - £46.61 / $69.92 - 42%
      9398 4x4 Crawler - $200.00 - £88.28 / $132.42 - 34%
      42006 Excavator - $79.99 - £36.62 / $54.93 - 31%
      42007 Moto Cross Bike - $39.99 - £18.86 / $28.29 - 29%
      9395 Tow Truck - $69.99 - £36.61 / $54.92 - 22%
      9392 Quad Bike - $39.99 - £21.62 / $32.43 - 19%
      Let's all marvel at the discounts on the top three items on this list: 42%, 34%, 31% and 29% are great discounts for North American buyers, yet across-the-board THEME discounts like this are nearly impossible to find. Frankly, the smaller sets would have great discounts as well if the £4.95 shipping cost didn't eat up so much of the discount.
      This blog post is not intended to be an advertisement for AmazonUK. The real question is why do these awesome discounts exist? While I don't have a concrete answer, there are a few factors working in favor of the North American buyer:
      1. VAT, or "Value Added Tax", the EU's version of sales tax, isn't charged to North American buyers. Yet, when you're surfing the AUK website, all of the list prices include VAT. According to BP member and Amazon UK afficionado ph4tb0i, VAT is 20% of the retail price.
      2. Shipping is £4.95 to North America, regardless of the size of weight of the Lego set. That roughly $7.50, a pretty good price for large sets. If you order additional sets, the shipping price drops to £2 ($3) for each additional unit, a very reasonable price.
      3. In the UK, MSRP prices for Technic sets are on par with, or in some instances better than, US prices. 42007 Moto Cross Bike is in fact cheaper for UK buyers: retail price is $37.49 (£24.99) in UK versus $39.99 in US. This goes against a LOT of what buyers have been conditioned to believe about Lego pricing, and in the end it helps North American buyer discounts on these sets.
      So why the discounts? Honestly, I have no idea. Looking at the most recent new eBay sales on Brickpicker, it's amazing to me how many sales have been in the EU: of the 30 listings, 27 were from Europe! I assume it's because this set is significantly discounted on the Amazon Euro sites, but what's driving the price drop on Amazon Euro listings? Well, there's one primary reason for sustained, across the board discounts like these: either these sets aren't selling quickly, or Amazon ordered too many sets. I couldn't even fathom a guess why demand for these sets appears depressed, but they are.
      Whatever the reason, North American buyers should add all Technic sets to their Amazon UK Wish Lists and CamelCamelCamel accounts to track their values.
      A word of caution must be raised about past experiences with shipping damage to Amazon UK merchandise, it appears that Amazon UK has heard the complaints and have taken steps to fix the shipping problems. From my experience, echoed in the forums recently by other BP members, the boxes being used by Amazon UK now use thicker cardboard, providing much better protection. That said, damage can still occur, and if it does it's a pain to ship these sets back. Also, Amazon UK will not reimburse you for these shipping costs until they receive the package back so they can hold your shipping costs for a couple of weeks.
      North American buyers, keep an eye peeled in the forum and on the Amazon UK website for future Technic deals. With some exciting sets on the horizon (I'm looking at you, 42009 Mobile Crane MKII), this just might be the place to grab a few at a discount!
       
    • Strytlr
      For over a century the cowboy has been the iconic American image recognized around the world, and the American “Old West” has been celebrated in art, music, literature, and of course movies and television programs. Long after the short-lived era of open range and long cattle drives came to an end, we still continue to admire and celebrate the stories and characters born out of that time. Popular representations may be more romantic than realistic, but they never seem to lose their appeal.
      I grew up watching Westerns on TV. The Rifleman, Wagon Train, High Chaparral, Rawhide and The Virginian were among my favorite shows. I liked the independent, self-reliant spirit of the pioneers, and the fact that you could always tell the good guys from the bad guys, and the bad guys always got what was coming to them in the end.
      I loved Westerns then, and I still love them today. So I suppose it’s only natural that I find myself drawn to the LEGO Western theme. I missed out on the Western sets of 1996-97 because I was, sadly, still in my Dark Ages. But with the recent release of the Lone Ranger movie tie-in sets, it seemed like a good time to revisit the history of the Western theme. Perhaps knowing more about this theme in general will help us judge the potential returns of these new sets. Since I didn’t have the opportunity to own these sets myself, I’ve based my opinions about them on research. I think this has given me a pretty good feel for what each set is like.
      Overview
      Western wasn’t the first Wild West-styled LEGO theme, but it was the first to use the new minifigures. The earlier sets such as 620 Wild West Scene (1975) and 617 Cowboys (1975) both included the old LEGOLAND Minifigures.
      The storyline of the sets from 1996 focused on sheriffs battling against outlaws, as well as the presence of the cavalry. The town, called Gold City, consisted of a sheriff’s office, a bank, and a general store. The town served mainly as a target for the bandits, rather than to portray civilian life of the period. There was also an abandoned mine outside the city which the bandits used as a hideout. The cavalry was based in a fort cleverly named Fort LEGOREDO.
      In the theme’s second (and last) year, the Indians became a major part of the theme. Their home was Rapid River Village. They are apparently intended to portray a tribe of Plains Indians, however the inclusion of a totem pole in a couple of the sets is an indication that stereotypes took precedence over accuracy in that portrayal.
      You may have noticed that there is a definite similarity between the Western theme and the new Lone Ranger theme. Like the Western theme, the Lone Ranger theme focuses on good guys versus bandits, and the town, with it’s only buildings being a Sheriff’s Office and a Bank, serves only as a backdrop for the activities of the bandits rather than including any ordinary townspeople. Also note the commonality of the mines, and the presence of cavalry and Indians. The chief differences that I see are the lack of a large fort among the Lone Ranger sets, and the inclusion of a very nice train set instead. (As a side note, all things considered I think I prefer the train, which is very authentic-looking. I can always build a moc fort if I want the cavalry soldiers to have a more respectable base of operations.)
      Now let’s look at the main Western sets individually.
      6706 – Frontier Patrol

      DESCRIPTION:
      Frontier Patrol, released in 1997, contains 26 pieces. It is made up of 3 minifigures: a Cavalry Colonel riding a black horse, a Cavalry Lieutenant, and a Cavalry Soldier. Accessories include two rifles, one pistol, a flag, a bugle, and a saber. It also includes a green bush. One of the more interesting pieces in this set is the dynamite, which is represented by a picture printed on a 1x2 white tile. There are no structures includes in this set.
      For purposes of comparison, I would consider it to be comparable to the current Lone Ranger Cavalry Builder set.
      ANALYSIS:
      This is one of the better-performing sets of this series, with ROI of 463% and a CAGR of 11.4%. However, with an original price of $5.99, one would need to have stockpiled quite a few of these sets to make a sizable profit on them.
      6709 – Tribal Chief

      DESCRIPTION:
      Tribal Chief is an Indians set released in 1997. This is another very small set, which consists only of one minifigure (the Tribal Chief), his horse, a green bush, and a black snake, for a total of 14 pieces. The horse is unique in that it is a pinto rather than the plain brown, black or white horses in most other sets, decorated with a colorful blanket under the saddle and a feather on the bridle.
      ANALYSIS:
      This set hasn’t done too badly, with an ROI of 377% and a 10.26% CAGR. Again, however, because it is a very small set with an MSRP of only $3.99, an investor would need to have purchased a large number of them to realize a meaningful actual return.
      6712 - Sheriff’s Showdown

      DESCRIPTION:
      Sheriff’s Showdown was released in 1996 (although one source noted that it wasn’t released until 1997 in North America). Another small set focused on characters rather than setting, it contained 26 pieces, including 2 minifigures, the Sheriff and outlaw Black Bart. It also includes one black horse, a campfire with a frying pan, a large brown barrel, a green bush, a rifle, a pistol, and one of the printed dynamite tiles.
      ANALYSIS:
      This set is another mid-range performer, with an ROI of 409% and a CAGR of 10%. It is also one of the smallest sets, with an MSRP of $3.99, which means that its high ROI doesn’t translate into a large dollar return unless the investor happened to stock up on a lot of these sets.
      6716 – Weapons Wagon

      DESCRIPTION:
      The Weapons Wagon, released in 1996, contains 63 pieces and includes one minifigure, a generic Cavalry Soldier in the standard blue uniform, kepi, and white kerchief. It boasts a nice Conestoga wagon, unique to this set, with the cavalry emblem of crossed sabers printed on the cloth cover. It also has one brown horse (pulling the wagon) and a cannon (non-shooting).
      ANALYSIS:
      Like most of the sets in this theme, this one has show a modest increase in value, with ROI of 300% and a CAGR of 8.58%.
      6718 – Raindance Ridge

      DESCRIPTION:
      Raindance Ridge, released in 1996, is another of the Indian-themed sets. It’s one of the smaller sets at 74 pieces. It contains 2 minifigures: a generic tan-shirted Indian and a Medicine Man. It also has one of the special printed Indian horses and a tree stump. Other pieces of note are the tomahawk and colorful shield, a gray bird, a green plant, a spring, and 2 black snakes. It also features a totem pole, which is out of place considering that these figures are clearly intended to represent Plains Indians.
      ANALYSIS:
      This set has more than tripled in value since its release. Over time, however, it has a CAGR of just over 9%, which places it in the category of moderate return.
      6746 – Chief’s Tepee

      DESCRIPTION:
      Chief’s Tepee, which was released in 1997, is a medium-size Indian-themed set with 134 pieces and 3 minifigures. The minifigures in this set are a Chief, a red-shirted Indian, and a female Indian. It also includes one of the specially painted horses, and 2 tepees, each made of a decorated cloth outer covering wrapped around 2 poles. Other pieces of interest include bows and arrows, snakes, painted shields, plants, and a tree stump. Also present is an anachronistic totem pole.
      ANALYSIS:
      This set has more than doubled in value. With a CAGR of 8.45%, it has been a moderate performer.
      6748 – Boulder Cliff Canyon

      DESCRIPTION:
      Boulder Cliff Canyon is another Indian set released in 1997. In contains 250 pieces with 6 Indian minifigures, one of whom is a Medicine Man. It features a structure which represents the cliff referred to in the name of the set, which features a large boulder, lots of plants, a ladder, black snakes, and a bird (which is shaped, rather incongruously, like a parrot, but is molded in grey). It also has a teepee, a canoe, a hollow tree stump, a campfire, two of the decorated pinto Indian ponies, and a totem pole (also rather incongruous given that these appear to be Plains Indians). All in all a nice set with a lot going on and good playability.
      ANALYSIS:
      This set has tripled in value compared to it’s original retail price of $39.99, which doesn’t sound too bad until you look at the CAGR, which is a modest 8.58%. Certainly not a loss, but not one of the top performers in this theme.
      6755 & 6764 – Sheriff’s Lock-Up

      DESCRIPTION:
      The Sheriff’s Lock-up was released in 1996 and contains 170 parts and 4 minifigures. The minifigures are the Sheriff, a Red-Shirted Cowboy, a bad guy named Flatfoot Thompson, and a gambler named Dewey Cheatum. It features a sheriff’s office containing a safe and a desk, and a stand-alone jail cell. It also has one white horse, 3 rifles, 4 pistols, a barrel, a green bush, a dynamite printed tile, a wanted poster printed tile, a tile printed with a hand of cards, and gold coins. Perhaps the most interesting and unique feature of this set is the blow-away wall of the jail cell, which is triggered by inserting the dynamite tile into a slot, where it releases a tensioned Technic Shock Absorber.
      ANALYSIS:
      This set’s ROI of 342% is impressive, but because it was released way back in 1996, the CAGR is only a modest 9.14%. Not a shabby performance, but not outstanding compared to other LEGO sets.
      The 2002 re-release of this set has done only slightly better than the original in terms of annual returns, with a CAGR of 9.62%. The price for a new set has gone up just over 170%. This is less than the original, but over a shorter time-frame. Hence the comparable CAGR. It’s also possible that the re-release of the set hurt the returns on the original by diluting the demand.
      6761 – Bandits’ Secret Hideout

      DESCRIPTION:
      Bandits’ Secret Hideout, released in 1996, contains 238 pieces, including 5 minifigures. The minifigures, none of which are unique to this set, are bag guys Black Bart and Flatfoot Thompson, gambler Dewey Cheatum, a Cavalry Soldier, and a Cavalry Lieutenant. The Hideout is an abandoned gold mine, which is built on a baseplate with a curved road printed on it. There are also a separate rock formation, and a water barrel on a stand. Other accessories include 3 horses (1 white, 1 brown, 1 black), a cannon (non-shooting), a chrome gold bugle, 3 green bushes, a safe, gold coins, a printed playing cards tile, a “Keep Out” sign, a grey bird, a cavalry flag, a miner’s pick, 4 pistols, 8 rifles, and 2 sabers.
      ANALYSIS:
      This set hasn’t broken any records in terms of returns, with it’s value growing to an ROI of 236%, for a CAGR of 7.39%. Again, an investor could have done worse, but he also could have done a lot better.
      6765 – Gold City Junction

      DESCRIPTION:
      Gold City Junction, released in 1996, contains 337 pieces and 6 minifigures. The minifigures are Black Bart, Red-Shirted Cowboy (aka Zack), the Banker, the Sheriff, a Cavalry Soldier, and Flatnose Curry. It features 2 buildings, a bank and a general store. Both buildings have the same kind of blow-out wall as the jail cell in the Sheriff’s Lock-up, which operate by sliding the dynamite tile into a slot to release tension from a Technic Shock Absorber. It also includes an open wagon drawn by 2 brown horses. Notable accessories include 2 fence sections, a barrel, an axe, a frying pan, 2 green bushes, a pick, a shovel, a grey bird, 6 pistols, 8 rifles, a black horse, and a canon that can be hooked to the back of the wagon.
      I would say this set is comparable to the Lone Ranger’s Colby City Showdown set.
      ANALYSIS:
      As an investment this mid-priced set has performed modestly, with ROI of 180% and a CAGR of only 6.24%. An investor who bought this set has made money, but he could have made a lot more elsewhere.
      6766 & 6763 – Rapid River Village

      DESCRIPTION:
      Rapid River Village was the first set to contain minifigures which represented racial characteristics. It contains 7 Indian minifigures: 1 Medicine Man, 1 Chief, and 5 generic Indians including 1 female.
      Here’s the official LEGO description (from the 2002 version 6763):
      You're the chief of Rapid River Village!
      You control the secret cave, the watchtower, and tree trunks that fall at your command. Push one gray brick to the right and a trapdoor drops intruders into the secret cave! Push another gray brick back and drop logs through a second trap door. Includes two tepees, a canoe, campfires, totem pole, two horses, seven figures, and two hollow tree trunks to hide in.
      ANALYSIS:
      Despite being such a nice set and introducing the Indian characters to the theme, this set has been a relatively poor performer. With an ROI of only 165% and a CAGR of 6.29%, the returns aren’t anything to write home about.
      Of the three sets re-released in 2002, this one has turned in the worst performance. The ROI of the remake is just under 40%, for a CAGR of a paultry 3.09%. This is also the only set of the three that has performed worse than the original. (Perhaps it was considered to be not “politically correct”?)
      6769 & 6762 – Fort LEGOREDO

      DESCRIPTION:
      Fort LEGOREDO, released in 1996, consists of 668 pieces which include 10 minifigures. The re-release in 2002 has 673 pieces. The main feature of this set is the fort itself, which is built in four individual sections that can be rearranged. These sections are the front gate, a side wall, a second side wall with a gate, and the General’s office, which serves as the back section. The front gate is flanked by 2 guard towers, while the side gate has only 1. The General’s office is furnished with a fireplace which hides a secret hiding place and 2 armchairs which are each on a trap door. One trap door leads into the jail cell, and the other into another room. They are designed in such a way that only one can be operated at a time. The minifigures are: a Cavalry Colonel, 2 Cavalry Lieutenants, 2 Cavalry Soldiers, Red-Shirted Cowboy, Black Bart, Flatfoot Thompson, and Dewey Cheatum. Notable accessories include: a (black) horse-drawn limber with detachable gun, 2 mounted cow horns, 4 red birds, 5 green bushes, 1 set of stairs, 2 barrels, a dynamite printed tile, a playing cards printed tile, 5 pistols, 10 rifles, 3 sabers, 1 cavalry flag, gold coins, a brown horse, a white horse, and a chrome gold bugle.
      ANALYSIS:
      This set has more than doubled in value, but since this return is spread over 17 years, the CAGR is only 7.44%. As an investment, it’s better than leaving money sit in a savings account, but it isn’t a big winner when compared to the outstanding returns of other LEGO sets.
      The 2002 re-release of this set (#6762) has done slightly better than the original in terms of its CAGR of 8.78%, but in real terms it has appreciated only by slightly more than 150%. This still puts it in the mid-range as far as performance.
      6790 – Bandit’s Wheel Gun

      DESCRIPTION:
      The Bandit’s Wheel Gun is a small 21-piece set with 1 minifigure. The contents are identical to set 6791, with the only difference being that 6790 came packaged in a box, and 6791 came in a polybag. The set features a wheel gun built by fastening 2 rifles onto a carriage base, and minifigure Black Bart. It also comes with 2 pistols, a “Keep Out” sign, and a dynamite printed tile.
      ANALYSIS:
      This small set has shown very respectable gains, with a price that’s increased by more than 700% for a CAGR of 14.17%. In real terms, we’re only looking at a profit of $14.59, which puts things in a different perspective. Still, if you’d bought a hundred of them, you’d be sitting on a nice chunk of change. The downside: a hundred separate transactions. The upside: the small size makes them much easier to store and ship than the larger sets.
      6791 – Bandit’s Wheel Gun
      DESCRIPTION:
      See Set 6790. (I don’t know why this same set was released with two different numbers.)
      ANALYSIS:
      This set hasn’t appreciated quite as much as it’s twin #6790, but it still offers respectable numbers, with ROI of over 500% and a CAGR of 12.09%.
      6799 – Showdown Canyon

      DESCRIPTION:
      Showdown Canyon is a Bonus Pack released in 1997. It contains 2 small boxed sets packaged together in a larger box which could be converted into a playscape. Both these small sets were available only in this bonus pack.
      The first set, a wagon carrying a safe, comes with 1 horse and 2 minifigures, a sheriff and another figure who could be either the driver or a deputy. Also included were 2 printed money tiles, a whip, a rifle and a revolver.
      The second set is a small gun cart (made by attaching 2 rifles) and 2 minifigures, outlaws Black Bart and Flatfoot Thompson. They come with 3 pistols and a dynamite printed tile.
      Once source notes that although the box was labeled as containing 69 pieces, there are in fact 75.
      ANALYSIS:
      With ROI of over 350% and a CAGR of 9.90%, this set falls somewhere in the middle range of return. Not great, but not bad, either.
      CHART AND ANALYTICS
      Summary and Conclusion
      I don’t see the original Western sets as being a great investment at this point, as they’ve already seen significant gains. However, it will be interesting to see what happens with the new Lone Ranger sets. (At the time of this writing, the Lone Ranger movie upon which these new sets are based hasn’t been released yet, so it is still unknown what effect its popularity or lack thereof will have on the performance of the sets.) If they really take off, the older sets might benefit from renewed interest in the Western theme as a whole. Time will tell.
      I think these sets are certainly worth looking at as far as adding them to one’s personal collection. They would be great fun to play with, and would make a nice display. For this use I would recommend looking for used sets to purchase to save money. Despite some differences in style, I think they would be suitable to combine with Lone Ranger sets to build a more elaborate Western scene. The Fort especially lends itself to this since, as mentioned above, the Lone Ranger sets do not include a fort, and it is uncertain at this time whether there will ever be a second wave of Lone Ranger sets with which to expand one’s collection.
       

       
       
    • Fcbarcelona101
      Bigger is always better. Some of you may agree or disagree with that statement to some extent, but there is no denying that when it comes to LEGO investing, the larger the set, the greatest its possibilities of becoming a great performer.
      In almost every aspect of life, people are usually very interested in figuring out what is the largest “anything”, as evidenced by the thousands and thousands of Top 10 or the like lists that have populated books and the internet over the course of history. Tallest buildings, waterfalls, mountains, etc. are just some examples of this. Most of the time, these lists are of almost no use to the public other than for entertainment value or, in some way, education, but when it comes to LEGO specifically, you will be very likely notice a positive correlation between the sets in these type of list, and the best investment sets over the past decade.
      In this article, I will be talking mostly about the Large Scale Models theme, with some large and popular Sculptures sets mixed in, to help you understand a little bit more about their past performance and what I think made them so successful, so that you are better informed when thinking about spending more than $ 200 on one of these for investment purposes. Even though I will be focusing most of my analysis in the largest sets, there are also a couple of large scale models that are over 1,000 pieces but not quite as large as some of the others that will also be analyzed to some extent in the next couple of pages.
      Large Scale models are almost always based on some real life structure, usually a well-known landmark, vehicles, planes or things of that sort. The models included in this theme are mostly targeted to appeal to the AFOL and the serious collector, given their high level of detail, great display value, and usually MSRP. You can probably relate some of these characteristics to some of the other adult oriented themes, most notably Architecture, that even though it can’t be compared to the magnitude of large scale models, it does present almost all of them to a smaller scale, no pun intended.
      However, there are a couple of other factors where the sets in this theme are more appealing than the rest, and one of them is in the Price per Piece department, where some of the largest sets provide you a lot of bang for your buck. We will examine some of these sets later on, but just give you an idea, the 10189 Taj Mahal and 10214 Tower Bridge’s price per piece ratios are $ 0.05 and $ 0.06, respectively, a figure that is well below most other LEGO sets. The other one, equally important, is that even when these sets retire and skyrocket in value in the secondary market, the large amount of pieces you get for your money can make a large purchase a little easier to swallow. It is not the same to pay $ 700 for a set with 1,000 pieces than the same amount for one with 4,000.
      Before going into specifics, let’s take a look at the list of the 10 largest LEGO sets ever produced up to this point and also take a look at the theme’s overall performance numbers:
      1- 10189 Taj Mahal
      2- 10179 UCS Millenium Falcon
      3- 10214 Tower Bridge
      4- 10188 Death Star
      5- 10143 Death Star II
      6- 10181 Eiffel Tower
      7- 10196 Grand Carousel
      8- 10221 Super Star Destroyer
      9- 10030 Imperial Star Destroyer
      10- 3450 Statue of Liberty
      As you can see, I highlighted the Large Scale Models/Sculpture sets in the list above, where they constitute exactly half of the list, the other half being all UCS Star Wars sets. As you will see later, all of them have been excellent performers once retired (Tower Bridge is still currently available).
      Let’s now go a little into the theme’s overall numbers.
      According to Brickpicker’s data, the Large Scale Model’s average CAGR is 22.37 %, earning it the 11th place in that regard. One thing you need to keep in mind is that this number is including sets of the theme that are currently available, so if we take out those and examine only those that have been retired we come up with a much higher 29.84 %. It is clear this sets are one of the most popular with LEGO fans!
      With all that behind us, let’s take a look at the more popular and largest sets individually.
      10189 Taj Mahal


       
      Comments: Largest LEGO set EVER produced with almost 6,000 pieces. The finished model is just too impressive for me to be able to make it justice in a few words, so I’ll focus mostly on its numbers and let you buy one out of eBay so you can see it for yourself . The UCS Millenium Falcon is most of the time the set that is mentioned the most in the LEGO investment community, and for good reason, but this model really is not too far behind 10179. With an extremely low price per piece ratio, this set has grown at over 35 % EACH YEAR (CAGR) since 2008, a number that almost no investment out there is able to achieve even in only 1 specific year, and certainly not with the low risk LEGO sets usually present. Even more, the Taj continues to grow steadily in value, despite presenting some short periods of drops in market value as evidenced by April’s decline, with a 6 month growth of around 13 %. Sale activity is also pretty high and consistent for a set over $ 1,000.
      10181 Eiffel Tower


       
      Comments: One of the most recognizable landmarks in the entire world, this impressive model is more than one meter tall (sorry guys, where I come from we use the metric system lol). While this set comes with over 3,000 pieces, there is really not as much variety as you would think. Despite its great looking appearance and size, it seems that this set is not named as much as some of the others on this list, something I find very interesting. The set took a large hit in the month of December, and even though it has gone up some after that, it still has not recovered to the level it used to be. Still, with a current market value of over $1,000, a CAGR over 30% and a total change over retail of around 400%, this set’s performance can’t be judged by a short term bump. In fact, the last 4 New 10181 sold on eBay have gone for an average of $ 1,150 indicating it may not take too long for this set to go back up to where it was before…and probably even higher.
      10196 Grand Carousel


      Comments: An extremely great looking and unique model this carousel has sounds, movements and some very rare parts, including the “cloth” like parts that cover the upper section. Growth wise, this set has been going up consistently over the past few months, almost 50 % over the past year alone! This is more than likely going to continue in the near future, as I think this set really didn’t get as much attention while it was still available and now a lot of people seem to be interesting in purchasing it. I can’t blame them, it really is an unique set.
      3450 Statue of Liberty


      Comments: This well-known landmark has been retired for more than a decade and still manages to present a CAGR of more than 15 %, that’s more than ten years of solid, double digit growth. If you are into MOCs and need sand green bricks, then this would have been the set for you. Even more, given the age of the set, it is actually pretty rare to see one MISB listed on eBay, what leads to believe that the actual market value for this set is well above the one suggested in the price guide, at least for New ones. In fact, the only New listing on eBay right now sits at close to $ 5,000!
      10213 Shuttle Adventure


      Comments: This model is not really one of the largest ever, but it is also part of the Sculptures/Large Scale kind of set. Shuttle Adventure was re-released later as 10231 Shuttle Expedition, in order to fix some design issues of this first attempt. As a result, one would think that the original version may be harder to find than the remake over the next couple of years. It has only been a couple of months since the remake officially retired, so there is still a lot of room for the pair to increase substantially more in value, keeping in mind that both have already gone up by more than 50 % over retail.
      Other than the sets I have described above, there are a couple of other large ones that fit into the criteria I wanted to examine, but given that I have already talked about most of them on some of my other articles, I decided to show you their performance on a summary table you will find next:

      As you can see, all of the other sets I did no comment about have really similar numbers to those we have seen before. Several of them have CAGRs well above 20 %, and the two that don’t are really different from the rest AND have also been retired for a long while now, so the figure has had a lot of time to average down. So, to conclude this section, it seems pretty safe to say that sets that fit these criteria are as close as you are going to get to no risk investments (Based on historical data).
      Now that we have analyzed the past of Large Scale Models, let’s now go ahead and examine the present.
      10214 Tower Bridge

      My Analysis: The Tower Bridge is the third largest set ever produced, based on raw piece count. The set, once complete, is really great looking and as detailed as all of the others have been up to this point. Even more, it also includes some micro cars built from actual bricks that give the set an even more realistic appearance. With a Price per Piece of $0.06, this set is a real bargain, especially if found discounted as it has been several times in the past months.
      Another aspect to consider is that, even though it may not be as famous as the Taj or Eiffel Tower, the Tower Bridge of London is easily one of the world’s most well-known landmarks, so that should not be an issue to worry about too much. The only reason I mention this is because I know there are some people that just don’t see this structure as one of the most famous in the world, but I believe it actually is.
      Value Prediction: As I said on my review of this set, given some of the changes that have been going on the LEGO investment market, specifically an increase in investors, I don’t see this set exactly replicating what previous Large Scale models like the Taj Mahal did in the secondary market. Having said that, I do expect the set to make considerable gains in value, probably performing with a CAGR of 19 % by the time it has been retired for two years. That is an above average performance that should make everyone who owns this set very happy!
       

      *Graph assumes 2013 retirement.
      With that we pretty much close all those sets that have been already retired and are currently available, so what does the future have in store for us?
      10234 Sidney Opera House

      Up to the date this article was written there had not been any official information about what possible set could be the next Large Scale Model, but rumors were hinting about the possibility of a 6,000 pieces Sidney Opera House. Since information about that set is official at this point, I felt the need to modify this last paragraph. Basically, the Sidney Opera House that was revealed a few weeks ago will have nowhere near the amount of pieces rumored, more like half, but that does not mean it won’t be an impressive set. From what we have seen so far, LEGO has finally been able to make a great recreation of the well-known landmark that from the images looks pretty large as well, The price may seem a little steep at first ($320), but considering that there are probably a large amount of large pieces it probably still is within the range of the overall theme when it comes to Price Per Weight. We’ll have to wait until the set is released to know more, but it sure looks like an investment winner at first sight.
      So, to conclude, are big sets related to big profits in the secondary market? I think they are, and historical information seems to support this as well.
      Thanks for reading.
      *Title by Ed Mack*
       
    • Fcbarcelona101
      For those of you who read my past review on the 10179 UCS Millenium Falcon, I will let you know upfront that this is mostly the same information I presented in the growth potential section. I decided to post it here because I believe it will get more exposure AND because in here you will be able to post your comments and feedback on my analysis. So, in summary, if you read my review you can go ahead and skip to go directly to the comments sections and let me know what you think, while if you didn't well, read on!
      As you all know, the Ultimate Collector's Series Millenium Falcon is the single most successful investment over the course of LEGO's history, so I feel it is important to analyze some of the factors that helped its good performance, as well as the past and future trends for the set.
      First of all, we can go ahead and compare the performance of the set to that of some other comparable SW UCS models:
       

      What we have to evaluate in the table above is not so much the CAGR of the sets, since they have been retired for very different time periods, but rather the Holding Period Return (equivalent to % Change Over Retail). In this category, the UCS MF completely crushes any of the other two large sets by more than 100% in each case, a number that is very impressive when you consider the other two have had more time to grow AND had retail prices $100 less than the MF, so they would need to sell for not even close to what the MF is selling now to reach the same HPR. Also as said above, the average HPR for UCS sets is around 300%, so once again the MF is above average by a wide margin.
      It is really not that much of a surprise to see that this set has outperformed most others, if not all the sets in the UCS. This is by far the most popular ship of the entire Star Wars universe, and that popularity translates to A LOT of people willing and able to make this set a part of their collection. You can be sure that any hard core Star Wars fan will need to get one of these to be able to say that the collection is complete, there is really no way around it. Another strength the set has going for it is how hard, expensive and time consuming it is to recreate 100%, as we examined on a previous section. Some parts are just extremely expensive, hard to find in the desired quantities, and the add-ons like the box, stickers and the instructions already cost more than most currently available UCS sets.
      Now, I want to show you a graph that shows the % increases of each set above over the past two years to compare where the sets have been going in the relatively short term:

      You can see in the graph above that the three sets have been experiencing similar trends when it comes to % changes. Logically, the farther back we go in history the larger the % change increase or decrease should be. If we go to where the MF was around 2011 we will see that of the three sets this was the one that grew the most in that period (2011-2013) with a % change of over 100% that, considering it was selling for around $1,000 by that time, is extremely impressive. It seems that over the past year the MF has increased more than the ISD (that has more years retired) but less than the DSII, that it's doing pretty well itself. Again, we have to remember that a 1% increase in the Millenium Falcon is almost double the amount of the same % increase in the other two sets.
      With that out of the way, let's see where the Millenium Falcon has been going over the course of the past two years, as well as its sales trends over the past 12 months to figure out if it still is a worthy investment even at current market prices.

      Very interesting graph. You see that the Millenium Falcon was selling at around $ 1,300 back in 2011 and in that short period of around 2 years the set has already doubled in value yet again. Those investors that had the foresight to invest in the set even when it seemed to be extremely expensive are now rewarded with a very nice ROI that at the same time is equivalent to a pretty substantial dollar amount. You can also see that the trend of this set continues to move up even in the short term, with it going up almost 6% relative to the past month alone. Of course, there are some fluctuations and periods of time in which the set has taken a dip in value as well, but overall the trend is upward and not the other way around.
      Let's add this graph up with the one about sales numbers over the past 12 months:

      In the graph above you will be able to see that even at this very expensive price the set continues to sell a very respectable amount of both new and used copies every single month. The lower we have seen over the past 12 months was in the past month of May, with "only" 6 new sets sold and around 7 used ones. For a set with such a high price tag I think that the eBay activity is another indicator of its huge popularity. What's more, as the holidays approach we will start seeing this number rise up again in the same way it did in 2012 (you can see the growth in sales in the graph starting in September and peaking in December). One thing I do want to mention is that as mentioned in one of my recent Blog Articles this type of sets is vulnerable to what I called the December Effect. Let's see the value changes over the past 12 months so you can see what I mean:

      Take a look at the December values and you will clearly see that the set dropped to its lowest point in the last 12 month period. In fact, the set lost over 12% of its value between the month of November 2012 and December 2012. This seems to be a constant trend with this very large and expensive sets, as I explained in my article, probably as a result of the collector and AFOL spending most of the money in holiday purchases and gifts as well as a larger supply of sets in the market that occurs in part for the belief that December usually is the best time to sell. If you are interested in more detail you can go ahead and read the blog, but for now I just wanted you to see that for a seller of a UCS MF, December may very well be the worst time while for the buyer it may very well be the best.
      Taking all the above information and putting it together leads me to believe that this set's future growth prospects continue to be outstanding. With the release of the new Star Wars movies and possibly other movies dedicated exclusively to the Millenium Falcon storyline the ship is probably going to be in the big screen yet again in the following years, increasing its popularity and therefore market demand even more. Another thing I wanted to mention is that even if LEGO goes ahead and decides to do a re-make of the MF as they did with the currently released X-Wing, I see very unlikely that they will produce a model that is even close in piece count, size, detail and price as the 10179. Even if the model is a $400 set with around 4,000 pieces (something that in and on itself I see unlikely if we take a look a TLG past releases over the last few years), the new model will still be short by more than 1,000 pieces and will more than likely be smaller in size and detail as well.
      Furthermore, this set will continue to be the Top Choice for the hard core collector and AFOL, that I think is for sure the audience purchasing it now at over $2,000. Most of those people willing to pay that much for a LEGO set will continue to exist in the future and demand for this set will continue as a result. What's more, every single month we know that AT LEAST six news sets are sold and I would say that at least half of them gets opened and built, in turn reducing the future supply of sealed 10179s.
      I really see this set continuing is fast growth for many years to come, and someone willing to take a risk with the expectation of a very big reward should consider putting some money into this set now before it gets even more expensive. What's the limit with this thing, you say? Of course, no one knows for sure, but history has proven that those who though $ 1,500 for a LEGO set was the highest it would go were very very wrong. $ 4,000, why not?
       
    • MartinP
      This entry is about the values for the two different UCS X-Wing Fighters and how the remake is affecting the values. There is a good article about the First Impressions of the set. Here is the link: http://www.brickpicker.com/forum/index.php/blog/5/entry-188-first-impressions-10240-ucs-x-wing-remake/
      After one month of being on the market, both UCS sets have risen in value. This is very surpirsing. My personal thoughts were that the new UCS set would rise in value and that the old UCS set would decrease in value. I was wrong. Here is the data for both sets.
      7191 UCS X-Wing Fighter:
      Value:
      New: $793.47, Up 2.15% from May 2013. Used: $285.29, Up 17.35% from May 2013. Both values for this set had increased in the past month.
      10240 UCS Red Five X-Wing Starfighter:
      Value:
      New: $254.95, Up 1.98% from May 2013. Used: $173.50. Since the remake, I thought that there would be more people buying the newer UCS set because it was more avaiable, thus driving the value for the set up. Because of that factor, I thought the interest in the older UCS set was going down and there would be less sales and at lower prices, thus driving the value of the set downward. All of my thoughts are wrong at this point in time.
      More data next month in July 2013 . . .
       
    • Fcbarcelona101
      The Ninjago theme is one that has proven to be one of the most successful themes in LEGO's recent history, as evidenced by its first place in the Top Themes when considered CAGR. The theme has been a hit ever since it hit the shelves for the first time a couple of years ago, product of a mix of sets and a popular TV show, a combination LEGO hopes brings the same results with the released of the somewhat recent Legends of Chima.
      Ninjago has been discussed and analyzed several times in this forum, so I wanted to focus this short blog article in a very specific type of set: those that include any of the dragons. I think it will be very interesting to see how all of the Ninjago sets that have included any kind of dragon have been greatly profitable in the secondary market, a fact that can help even the newbie investor to make good decisions and diversify into a theme they would not otherwise purchase for lack of familiarity with it.
      I will be listing the sets from smallest to largest, by piece count:
      - 30083 Dragon Fight

      Comments: The smallest set of the bunch is actually a polybag that originally sold for $3.50 and was exclusive to Target. It included a very small dragon and one minifigure and presents a very decent CAGR, keeping in mind that the low MSRP makes it easier for sets like this to increase substantially in value. The polybag seems to have stabilized in value over the past few months, so if you are planning to get one or sell yours, now is as good a time as any.
      - 2260 Ice Dragon Attack

      Comments: The first and smallest (excluding the poly) dragon released under the Ninjago theme, this set has been pretty big when it comes to secondary market returns. The set lasted for less than a year on the shelves, and the fact that it was the first released dragon probably help it too to get to the point where it currently is, making it one of the most recent true sleeper sets.
      The Ice Dragon remains very popular even more than a year after retirement, consistently selling around 20 sets per month. Most Ninjago collectors and fans more than likely missed out on this set, and if they want to complete their dragon or theme collection they are forced to acquire it at secondary market prices. The set hit a ceiling of around $ 90 this past holiday season, but since then it has lost around 16% of its value. However, once the holidays get going again and even more when the new Ninjago movie hits the theater my guess is that this set will break the $ 100 mark. Not bad considering it went for only $ 20 when widely available.
      - 2509 Earth Dragon Defence

      Comments: This dragon is actually the most unique looking one, in my opinion, and one that lasted even less than the Ice Dragon on the shelves. In turn, it has also become one of the top performers in this list, with a change over retail of almost 230%! Unlike the Ice Dragon, this set actually keeps increasing in value, with a huge 17% jump over the past month alone.
      - 2521 Lightning Dragon Battle

      Comments: Another first year release with a very short production run and a exclusive to LEGO and TRU, this was actually one of the largest sets released under the theme at that point with a $ 80 price tag. The set was selling at a very stable price up to December when it jumped from around $150 to $180, and since then it has remained at around that value.
      - 2507 Fire Temple

      Comments: Finally we get to a set that was retired fairly recently, sometime by the end of last year. This is the largest Ninjago set ever released, and since it remained on the shelves after the craze was already in one of its highest points it may help us determine how well some of the currently available sets will be doing once retired. Besides the dragon, this set included several minifigs and golden weapons, so it was sure to be a winner once it retired. So far, it presents some outstanding numbers with a 56% change over retail and a 25% CAGR. Probably as a result of its longer availability and the fact that investors had more chance and knowledge to acquire it, the set has not grown as rapidly as some of the others, but it is still pretty early to say for sure. We''ll see how it does this holiday season.
      Below you will find a table with each set's numbers and a graph that places their change over retail against the average.


      As you can see, pretty much every set has performed extremely well, with the largest sets experiencing a smaller change over retail more than likely as a result of the higher MSRP and recent retirement in the case of the Fire Temple. Every set that so far has included a dragon figure has then been a sure winner in the secondary market, and we should take these results and put them into use to figure out some of the sets we should be putting our money into in the Ninjago theme. The two currently available sets including dragons are shown below.
      - 70503 Golden Dragon

      Comments: This set includes my favorite dragon as well as the golden ninja. The set was selling pretty good this past holiday season and will more than likely be a great performer once it retires, just don't expect it to be the next Ice Dragon.
      - 9450 Epic Dragon Battle

      Comments: Second largest Ninjago set. This one includes several cool characters and exclusive minifigs that along with the Ultra Dragon make it one of the highest quality sets released under the theme. It actually shares a lot of similarities with the Fire Temple and I would expect it to perform very similarly once it retires, meaning a nice jump after EOL and some slower growth towards the $200 by the end of the first year after retirement.
      Remember that the new Ninjago movie will more than likely boost the popularity of the theme even more, and all of these sets will benefit from the increase and see some returns that would have probably not happened as fast if the movie had not been released. Make sure to get as many as you can in both cases.
      I hope you have enjoyed this very superficial analysis of the Ninjago dragons and I thank you for reading it!
       
    • Fcbarcelona101
      There is something I have been wanting to apply to LEGO for a long time but that for some reason I could not find enough time to do: a regression analysis.
      For those of you that have never heard of have already forgotten what a linear regression is, I will try to quickly summarize the most important aspects. Basically, by running a regression analysis we can determine the relationship between several different independent variables and how they affect one particular dependent variable, therefore allowing us to determine exactly what causes that independent variable to change. Even more, once we have performed a regression analyses we end up with a linear equation that can help us predict the future value of the independent variable by changing one or several of the dependent, with a margin of error depending on the quality of the regression. I know that some will understand this better once we get into the actual UCS numbers.
      What I did in this particular case is select a popular theme that had a manageable amount of retired sets so that I would not need to spend several days collecting data, and the UCS seemed to be the most useful choice. For my independent variable I selected Change Over Retail, and the dependent variables that would help me determine it ended up being the following:
      Price Per Piece Price Per Gram Piece Count MSRP Total Number of Sets Sold in the Past 12 Months Approximate Numbers of Years Retired There are several other variables that more than likely have an impact in how much a set increases in value over its retail price, like amount of exclusive pieces and actual sales numbers from its entire production run, but they are very hard or even impossible to quantify. The ones I selected are probably the most important of the ones we easily have access to.
      After selecting my variables, I went ahead and made a table in Excel for every single one of the UCS already retired sets and collected data for the variables above for each. Here is what it ended up looking like:

      You see that there is a lot of information in the table above that will help us with our current analysis. After collecting the data, I proceeded to run the regression analysis using Excel. The following is the regression output.

      There are a lot of numbers in the table above, but this is not supposed to be an in depth stats class, so I highlighted one of the most important numbers. The highlighted R Square figure is the number that lets us know how much of the variation in a set's % Change over retail is explained by the variables listed below (PPG,PPP, MSRP, etc). In this particular case, we got an R Square of 0.72, or 72%, meaning that we can explain 72% of the movements in Change over retail by using this model. Why can't we explain more than that? well, it all comes down to not having more sets to include (only 16 have been retired) and the fact that we do not have all the variables that have an effect on a set's change over retail. Still, 72% is a pretty respectable number all things considered.
      Now the boring part is out of the way, let's put to use what we found out and see how well our model matches up to the actual Change over retail of each set. This is done by using the following equation gathered from the above output:
      Predicted % Change Over Retail =-443 + 2045*(PPP) + 2524*(PPW) + 0.41*(#Pieces) - 3.47*(MSRP) - 0.01*(SetsSold12Mo) + 40.46*(#YearsRetired)
      You basically substitute each set's information for each variable in the formula above. For example, the 10179 predicted change over retail would be:
      Predicted % Change Over Retail =-443 + 2045*(0.1) + 2524*(0.049) + 0.41*(5195) - 3.47*(500) - 0.01*(342) + 40.46*(3)
      Predicted % Change Over Retail = 374.01% Actual Change Over Retail = 424.41%
      As said before, there is a margin of error tied to the fact that not all of the variables are accounted for, but for basic estimations this model will give you some decently accurate results most of the time. Keep in mind that some special cases will be farther apart from the actual results, while some will be extremely close.
      I then went ahead and applied the formula for every single set and compared the predicted values to the actual values just like we did with 10179 above, here is what it looks like both in table and graph form:


      You can see that some of the results are pretty accurate, a couple are very far away (especially Grievous and the Speeder), and most are somewhat close. With more observations (sets) and with at least some of the missing variables our results would be a lot more accurate, but I think this at least provides you with a rough projection of where a set might be once retired for X amount of years.
      So, we have been using this model to see how well it predicted performance of sets that have already been retired, but the real usefulness of it is going to be predicting the % change over retail of sets that are currently being produced and sold at retail OR those sets that have already been retired but you want to know where they will be in a couple more years. I will do one example so you can see this better:
      10225 R2-D2 Predicted Change Over Retail in 3 Years (Assume retirement this year)
      % Change = -443 + 2045*(0.08) + 2524*(0.069) + 0.41*(2127) - 3.47*(180) - 0.01*(676) + 40.46*(3)
      Predicted % Change = 244.61%
      So, according to the formula, this model should be worth around $ 620 once it has been retired for a period of three years, equivalent to a 244.61% change over retail.
      I included this predictor in the Excel file you will find below, but there are some things I want you to keep in mind while using it:
      Projections are not perfect, just estimates The model assumes past performance trends will maintain, since that is all the data we have, but as we all know the LEGO investment environment has changed Do not try to project values beyond 12 years, since that is the farthest data point we have and will make your results more inaccurate. Have Fun!! Thanks for Reading!

      Regression - Predictor.xlsx (17.56KB): 128
       
    • Fcbarcelona101
      On this edition of the BrickIndex Spotlight we will be analyzing the latest SW UCS set to have been retired: the Imperial Shuttle 10212
      This is the first appearance of this set since it was retired just a few months ago, and so far it has managed to secure the 12th position after this past data update with a growth of 51.4% over the past 6 months.
      The UCS Imperial Shuttle was one of those sets that for some reason were not especially talked about or liked by investors despite the fact that it was part of one of the most successful line of sets and a very popular ship from the original SW trilogy. In my Sleeper sets article, I categorize it as a Cat 2 sleeper because of that, and now that a few months have passed and its growth has been extremely positive you can probably tell why.
      One of the most interesting features about the set is the fact that it was designed to minifigure scale. It is very rare for a LEGO set to be designed this way, and to me those few that are really hold an extra appeal since you can place the characters and they will not make the model look weird or out of place. This model included 4 cool minifigs that fit perfectly in the IS cabin.
      Let's now evaluate the sale and market value numbers of this set over the past 12 months:

       

      In the graphs above there are a couple of things that are worth noticing. First, in the one depicting the number of sets sold you will see that even though the set has been retired for a few months and has increased significantly over MSRP it continues to sell a pretty large amount of copies, especially New ones. This speaks volumes about the popularity of the set, especially when you consider that this past month of May the set sold more new copies than in any other month with the exception of November, December and January.
      Now, take a look at the sales trends graphs for the past 12 months. You will see that up to December the set maintained a pretty consistent price around $20 below retail but once January hit the Shuttle started its pretty good growth trend that it has maintained for the last few months. Currently, the set is selling for around $ 355.
      At this point I would say that there is still plenty of room for growth and investors with the ability to get a few more copies of this set would make a very good choice if planning to hold them for at least a couple of years before selling. The numbers for the majority of the UCS sets have been outstanding, and this particular one is already on the same path as some of its predecessors. I would be really surprised if this set does not reach $400 by the time December 2013 comes around. Expect this set to continue positioning itself on the BrickIndex for the next couple of months.
      Recommendation: Strong Buy (6/30/2013)
       


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