Jump to content
Click Here To View The NEW DAILY DEALS FEED!

  • Brickpicker Blog

    Brickpicker blog articles on LEGO investing, news, reviews, evaluations, discounts and more...
    Show all categories
    • Grolim
      Investing, trading, speculating, flipping, gambling, hoarding, whichever “-ing” you decide to label a particular strategy with they all boil down to one thing – making money (well maybe not hoarding!). The handle you attach doesn’t really matter, we don’t need a label to neatly categorize different strategies into compartmentalised silos. Personally I use investing or investment as a catch-all term to encompass any form of buying an asset (Lego in this case) for the intention of resale at a profit. It’s not a label, just a generic term to describe making money. Text books differ on the precise meanings of all those terms I listed before, but it’s not about labels, it’s about strategies.
      All strategies have situations in which their application becomes warranted as they are dependent on many circumstances. These include but are not limited to:
      A persons appetite for risk The future prediction (in the investors mind) of market prices The amount of capital the investor has available Cashflow restrictions Regional or other geographic price differences Storage space Purchase price vs current Ebay (or other selling market) price Time available for investor research and selling logistics Whims, hunches, gut feelings – personal opinions Different strokes for different folks.
      Not all strategies are “optimal” in terms of an economic profit perspective, but most are considered “right” if a rational person has made a reasonably rational decision given the information they had available at the time.
      Investing strategies are also not often able to be applied to specific investors. Many investors, myself included, utilise many different strategies depending on the situation at the time of purchase and on which particular set they are buying. Yes there are some investors that have one strategy only and stick to it fairly rigidly, and that may work for them, but the majority of members I see talking about Lego investing on this site employ different tactics.
      I have learnt a lot about different strategies from members here, some of which I use and others I don’t. I thought it would be useful to just list all the ones I know of and a brief description and examples of them. Perhaps there are some you don’t know about or have not heard of. A list like this also highlights the many options we as Lego investors have open to us to try and make some money.
      TIME BASED STRATEGIES
      Short Term - Selling as soon after purchasing (usually at a discount) as possible if the market price is decently higher than the purchase price. Often used for:
      Flipping large volumes of sets purchased at a discount Especially for sets that have lower future growth predictions Importing from other markets and selling locally Medium Term – Purchase and hold for 1-2 years.
      Hold sets until Christmas or other seasonal spike (e.g. Monster fighters and Halloween) Hold sets currently in retail until a few months after EOL and sell as growth slows Long Term – Hold for 3-5+ years
      Waiting until secondary supply has dwindled Squeezes out as much growth as possible RETURN TARGET STRATEGIES Hold Until X% Profit – Wait until market price hits an amount that gives you at least X% returns
      Can be Net Profit (after costs) or Gross Profit based Will be different hold times depending on the set, could be instant, or could be years Hold Until $X Price - Wait until market price hits a specific amount.
      Buy a set or sets and wait until they hit $X Essentially the same as the one above but sometimes people think more in raw dollar terms than ROI percentages SET BASED STRATEGIES Grinding – taking large volumes of small sets and selling large volumes
      Smaller profit margins but repeated many times High selling volume requires good logistical systems Big sets only – Only buying sets over $X or X piece counts
      Less sets to track Big set prices means return percentages translate into larger $ amount profits Theme Specialising – Buying from only one or two themes or subthemes
      Easy to research and track quickly making the investor a probable expert Or maybe just polybags, or minifigures… PARTING OUT Minifgiure Seperating
      Take out the minifigures to sell separately then sell off the rest of the set Takes advantage of discrepancies between market prices and the sum of the market prices for the minifigures plus parts Complete Seperation
      Selling all the parts separately like on Bricklink Resource intensive The sum of the parts is greater than the whole USED SETS Whole Sets – Complete used sets purchased
      Just like investing in a new set Can utilise any other strategies in conjunction Data is all available on Brickpicker for used sets Bulk Lots – Buying big piles and selling off
      Make up the sets they contain and sell them off separately Sell of the parts in lots Can be resource intensive I’m sure there are many more, please list some in the comments if you have any. Strategies may also be a hybrid of the ones I listed, there are many possibilities.
      Strategies are also able to be changed or abandoned. If you are waiting for growth that isn’t happening you may want to cut your loses and free up the capital for something else.
      “What choo talkin bout Willis?”
      I think what I’m trying to put out there in this post is don’t get hung up on the semantics and terminology of what we are doing here. Just appreciate a well thought out and explained strategy for its merits not its label. Plus it’s a basic list of some of the more highly used strategies available for investors to use.
       
    • comicblast
      This is the first of 4 installments comparing and contrasting sets from the Star Wars Universe from the BrickIndex Top 20 list.
      1. 10174-1: Imperial AT-ST
      2. 10212-1: Imperial Shuttle
      3. 10186-1: General Grievous
      4. 10143-1: Death Star II
      5. 7255-1: General Grievous Chase
      As promised, I am now going to write short paragraphs on the TOP 20 Performing Star Wars sets, in sets of 5.  
       
      **Please Note: These percentages are for the month of April. The BrickIndex has not yet been updated to May.**
      1. 10174-1: Imperial AT-ST
      The 10174 Imperial AT-ST has seen remarkable gains for a set that has been retired for 7 years, appreciating approximately $95 in the last 6 months. Like many Star Wars UCS models, the Imperial AT-ST has appreciate extremely well, just short of triple its original MSRP. The 10174 is by no means a popular set, even if it is part of the UCS line. This was a typical “under-the-radar” set, and still remains today. How fitting that it should have grown the most over the past half-year. With the whole of the Original Trilogy in comparison, this set is a tiny part of a larger world, which leads me to think that it still remains an “under-the-radar” set to this day, and will see similar gains to that of unexpected gainers. Watch this set very closely.
      2. 10212-1: Imperial Shuttle
      A more recent addition to the Biggest Gainers circle, but it has earned its position. As many of you know, this was one of the most surprising “under-the-radar” sets of recent memory. Prior to its retirement, it was considered to be one of the first mediocre UCS sets, so it was largely disregarded by many investors. Quite contrary however, it is arguably one of the best gainers that retired in late-2012/2013. It will be easy for this set to be worth more than $400 by Christmas.
      Though not as iconic as other sets from the Original Trilogy, it still commands a price that is similar to the biggest gainers from the sub-theme.
      3. 10186-1: General Grievous
      This set is a surprise to the leader-group of LEGO Star Wars. Over the past 4 months, there has been little change in its value, but there was an expected jump in value over the holidays of approximately $40, surpassing the $100 benchmark. This is a very accurate model of General Grievous, in part because it is one of the few LEGO Star Wars and Technic sets, giving it a more memorable look. I would try to pick this one up before the holidays because we will most likely see another jump in value.
      4. 10143-1: Death Star II
      One of the most iconic sets in the entire Star Wars Universe, and in my opinion, the most iconic in the Original Trilogy, giving it an edge on other sets. Once again, a UCS set, and has appreciated very generously, though it has not appreciated quite as much percentage-wise, it has increased approximately $800 over its initial value. From the month of December to May, it saw an incredible jump in value of about $352, much of that during the 2 months concluding the holiday season. Once again, during that time of year is a great time to sell this set. Does the fact that this set is part of the Original Trilogy have to do anything with its gains? Probably, because it plays a major role in the storyline, and because the Original Trilogy was received much better by audiences, leads me to believe that it may have not done as well if it had not been part of the Original Trilogy. On a sidenote, wouldn't many investors love the Live Star mirror its appreciation? That day is yet to come. Don't give up hope!
      5. 7255-1: General Grievous Chase
      This is the first non-UCS set in the LEGO Star Wars Top 20 Performer’s list. The chase between Grievous and Obi-Wan Kenobi is one of the most climactic in The Revenge of the Sith, which eventually is followed by the execution of Order 66. Because of its iconic factor, I am surprised that it has not yet been remade, though I think it will soon take remake treatment, as it has been 8 years since the first version was released. This set includes very hard-to-find elements, such as those found in the Boga, or in General Grievous’ Wheel Bike, which uses many elements found in Bionicle/Hero Factory.
      I believe that this set was also an under-the-radar set because of its low piece count, and because there were not very many “hoarders” or investors of LEGO’s back in 2005 when it first came out. I think that The Revenge of the Sith movie was the best of those in the Prequel Trilogy, which is why it appreciated more than those from other movies in the Prequel Trilogy such as the Attack of the Clones.
      **Well, that just about concludes sets 1-5 of the BrickIndex Top 20. 6-10 to be released!**
       
    • MartinP
      May 4th is widely known as Star Wars day. On May 4th and 5th, 2013 there was a sale on Lego Star Wars sets in Lego stores and on Lego Shop online. Most of the Star Wars sets were 10% of. But there was one set that has 50% off. That set is the 10227 B-Wing Starfighter. Since the set was 50% off, many people bought the set online and in Lego stores across the country and world. This has a bad effect on the future value of the set.
      I heard that many people were buying the set so they could resell it on eBay or something similar to that. This has had a horrible effect on the value of the set. As a result of many people buying this set at $99.99 USD and then selling it, the value of the set decreased dramatically.
      In May 2013, there were 300 sales for the B-Wing Starfighter new in the secondary market on eBay. The average price for all these sales is about $120 USD. That is only $20 USD above the price many of the people bought it at. Because of all the sales at low prices, the value of the set dropped dramatically. Here is the value of the set as of June 2013.
      10227 B-Wing Starfighter
      Current Value
      New: $126.50, Down 29.80%. Used: $156.20, Down 6.54%. Current CAGR: -36.75%.
      Because of all the sales, the set has been devalued so much, that at the moment, the set would be more valuable if you went to the store, bought the set, and then built it.
      Eventually, this effect will ware off. There is one thing we do not know: when this effect will end. The effect may end when the set is EOL. The effect may end at the end of the year. The effect may end next month. We do not know when the effect will end, but it has made a drastic impact in Lego investing in the set.
      Hopefully, the set will recover from this Lego investing disaster and regain all the lost value. If this effect does happen again we may know how long it will take for the set to recover.
      Thanks for reading!
       
    • MartinP
      The UCS R2-D2 is one of my favorite sets of all time that I have built. I got this set in April of 2013 and as soon as I came home from the store, I started building it. It was a fun build, but what really suprised me is that there was a variety of colors in the set. It is just not the blue, white, and gray you see on the outside of the set. on the inside there is a vaiety of colors such as yellow, green, and blue. For investing, the set is an UCS set. Usually these sets do well in the secondary market. Here is a good example. The UCS Millennium Falcon. It has a retail price of $499.99 USD. Now it has a value of $2622.00 USD. That is a little above five times the retail price.
      Here are some statistics for the set.
      The set has a retail price of $179.99 USD. The set has 2,127 pieces. The Price Per Piece (PPP) ratio is about eight cents per piece. In my opinion, that is one the low end of the PPP ratios. Most of the UCS PPP ratios average between ten and fifteen cents per piece. This set is below that by two cents. That is a good bargin if you like the better PPP ratios.
      The current value for this set is $170.60 USD new and $147.87 used. This means the PPP ratios are eight cents ($0.08 USD) new and seven cents ($0.07 USD) used. Eventhougth the set has a current CAGR of -5.22%. It will change and hopefully become positive, especially when the set retires.
      My recommendation for this set is to buy it. It is a UCS set. Most of the time, after the set retires, the value of the set increases a lot.
       
    • Quacs
      So, let's take a little further look into the numbers behind the Houston lot. First, I broke down the lot into retired vs. active sets, and small, medium and large sets. For each of these groups, I calculated the % of sets by quantity and % by current BP dollar value. Here are the raw numbers for each category:
      Retired vs. Active Sets
      Total sets: 282
      Total BP value: $17,043
      Total retired sets: 98 (35%)
      Total active sets: 184 (65%)
      BP value of retired sets: $3,840 (23%)
      BP value of active sets: $13,203 (77%)
      Retired sets ROI: 27%
      Active sets ROI: -13%
      Small vs. Medium vs. Large Sets
      Total small sets: 93 (33%)
      Total medium sets: 112 (40%)
      Total large sets: 77 (27%)
      BP value of small sets: $1,214 (7%)
      BP value of medium sets: $5,207 (31%)
      BP value of large sets: $10,622 (62%)
      Underlying Assumptions
      1. I didn't include the DVD in any calculations. There will be value with the Clark Kent fig, but there's no estimate for its value.
      2. Four sets were assumed to have a $0 MSRP: 30108 Summer Picnic, 5000023 Essen Germany minifigures, Han Solo polybag and Jor-El polybag.
      3. There were a few borderline sets that I considered active: 10227 B-Wing Starfighter, all modulars in the portfolio, 10214 Tower Bridge, 9476 Orc Forge and 3186 Glove World. I listed the following borderline sets as retired: 41017 Squirrel Tree House, 41018 Cat's Playground, 41019 Turtle's Little Oasis, 9469 Gandalf Arrives, 9472 Attack on Weathertop, and 6865 Captain America's Avenging Cycle.
      4. Small sets were defined as any less than $25, Medium Sets were between $25 and $80, and Large Sets were defined as any set more than $80.
      Analysis
      First off, the owner should be given credit for assembling such a massive lot. There are a lot of potential winners in this batch, along with some duds. That said, I split the stats into two groups for a reason: the retired vs. actual discussion should give us an idea of how much potential is left in this portfolio, while set size review should provide a good gauge of how much work is left to divest the portfolio.
      I think we have some interesting and relevant statistics to review. First, the retired vs. actual sets show us what we would expect: the retired sets have a positive ROI, while the active sets are currently negative. Yet, I was struck by two things: the relative "youth" of the portfolio (retired sets only comprise 23% of the BP value of the portflolio), and the low ROI of the retired sets. While 27% is nothing to sneeze at, it's much less than the expected return for most Brickpickers. While the retired sets are still relatively young, removing a few key winners further kills these sets' ROI: eliminating only the POTC ships, the Sponge Bob sets, Winter Village sets, and the Jor-El minifigs lowers the retired sets' return from 27% to 10%.
      On the flip side, 40% of the active portfolio's MSRP come from the following sets: 10197 Fire Brigade (x4), 10211 Grand Emporium (x4), 10214 Tower Bridge (x3), 10188 Death Star (x3), 10227 B-Wing Starfighter (x6), 6869 Quinjet Aerial Battle (x11), and 10224 Town Hall (x3). With the exception of Quinjet, these are all exclusives and project to be strong performers. This highlights the owner's belief in Lego Exclusives, a confidence shared by many Brickpickers.
      Regarding the portfolio's set size, I was struck by how many medium sets there were in comparison to the others - 40% of the entire portfolio have an MSRP between $25 and $80. That's the largest portion of the portfolio, and an interesting purchasing strategy of the owner. I believe there is more variability in the returns of medium sets than either large or small sets, so to me this was a risky choice.
      All in all, this is a collection that hasn't really taken off yet, but with the high concentration of modulars/exclusives, appears to have a nice upside.
      Note - this attachment has more information than the one included in part one, and has some mistyped information corrected.
       
      HoustonLotPricingREVISED.xlsx (52.99KB) : 31
    • Quacs
      Another short blog post here. After seeing the incredibly large, unused Lego collection posted by JoshTX earlier in the day, I thought I would try to calculate the MSRP and current Brickpicker value to see how good of a deal this actually is.
      Let me preface this by saying I hope nothing bad has happened that would force the owner of this portfolio to sell this great collection. I would never wish ill upon a fellow Brickpicker.
      Here are the values I came up with:
      Total MSRP on all sets: $18,747
      Total Brickpicker value of the portfolio: $17,825
      If the current owner of this was a savvy picker and only bought items at a discount, here is their cost basis at the following purchase discounts:
      10% discount - $16,872
      15% discount - $15,935
      20% discount - $14,998
      At this point in time, $13,500 would be a 10% haircut on the 20% discounted portfolio. While it's definitely a haircut, it's not as big of a haircut as you may think. That said, I still feel for the owner if he's forced to sell this.
      As everyone knows, a buyer would be purchasing the future returns of the portfolio, and for the most part, this portfolio will be really start to mature early to mid next year. Here are the potential returns of the portfolio at the given ROI (from MSRP):
      10% ROI - $20,622 ($1,875 increase)
      20% ROI - $22,496 ($3,749 increase)
      50% ROI - $28,121 ($9,374 increase)
      I have attached an MS Excel file with the full spreadsheet I put together with the numbers. I will likely do a second short blog entry later tonight when I get a little more time to further breakdown the portfolio.
       
      HoustonLotPricing.xlsx (22.63KB)       : 50
    • Fcbarcelona101
      Well known towers, skyscrapers, residences, hotels and other famous landmarks. What do all these structures have in common? well, they all form part of their own dedicated LEGO theme: Architecture. A theme with origins going back to the 1960s, that was brought back to life by LEGO at some point in 2008 with the introduction of their very first mini model of a "real world" landmark, the Sears Tower (To be changed not much later to the Willis Tower).
      For those of you out there that enjoy architecture as a hobby, or are professional architects, you probably know that it would have been very hard to choose a more popular building than the Sears Tower based on the category of architectural design. One of the most popular buildings in the world in that regard, it is my opinion that TLG chose very well what was the image they wanted to represent with this line of sets, and they took it one step further with the following release of the John Hancock Center, another extremely popular structure coming from a city known especially for its architectural attributes. That is quite a good 1-2 punch in my opinion.
      So, after talking a little bit about designs and beautiful buildings, it seems to be pretty clear to who these theme was designed to appeal the most from the beginning: AFOLs. This is not to say that there are no younger fans that enjoy arches, columns, vaults, or just the plain height and curves of an skyscraper, because I am sure there are a lot that do including here in this forum, but that even considering them the large majority of Architecture sets purchasers end up being Adults. There is nothing wrong with that, since there are already a lot of themes dedicated to younger folks, but it makes it a little more special and gives it a feeling of...let's say maturity, to buying what most people out there would only consider toys.
      Having said all that, it would probably not come as a surprise to you that most of the time the sets included in this line, especially those that are the smallest, tend to have a Price Per Piece (PPP) ratio that is substantially higher than those sets from other themes. It seems clear that TLG feels that adults will pay a premium for getting a more exclusive looking product that can look great in every office in the country, or home, as a display piece. Even more, to enhance even more this effect, the company decided to include somewhat large instructions booklet with a very nice design that resembles a small book, containing not only the traditional directions, but also several pages of high quality information and images about the structure a particular set is trying to replicate.
      To conclude this section, and to go right into the individual set analysis before giving my projections for the overall theme, it is also important to note how much effort the LEGO Group put into making this set look as a completely different thing from the average LEGO theme just by taking a quick look at them. The packaging of the these sets is a nice black and sleek design with large white font letters that make it look as elegant as the structures they represent, and what is even more is the fact that usually, sets in this line do not share shelf space in the traditional LEGO area, but rather have their own black colored stand that makes them stand out and be considered a completely different kind of theme. In my opinion, LEGO did an excellent job differentiating this line from the rest of their portfolio.
      In the interest of not extending myself too much more, too late right?, let's do an evaluation of every single set released under this theme and conclude giving you my overall impressions of the theme:
      - 21000 Sears Tower

      My Analysis: The first Architecture set to be released, the 21000 Sears Towers has already been retired, in theory. In practice, TLG just extended production of this set to reflect the name change to Willis Tower. It is interesting to note, however, that the original model with the old name has appreciated very nicely, especially when considering that you get the exact same thing in the new one. As said before, the Sears/Willis Tower is one of the most architecturally famous buildings in the world, and it is thanks to that that this is poised to be one of the best investments in the whole theme. This older model has already gone over retail pricing over 63 %, and I expect it to continue to rise and a slow pace until the newer Willis Tower retires as well.
      - 21001 John Hancock Center



      My Analysis: To me, this is the only actual set that LEGO has really retired from the Architecture theme, and it has proven to be an almost instant success shortly after going EOL. This set could still be found a couple of months before the holiday season of last year (2013), and since then it has gone over retail by almost 200%!, that is quite an impressive number. A 69 piece model, this set is currently selling for almost a dollar a piece.
      Interesting to not about this set's performance is that, according to Brickpicker's data, it has managed to secure the number 2 spot on the BrickIndex, a list that contains the top performing LEGO sets over the past 6 months, only toppled by The Zombies. It is this fact that surprises me when I take a look at forum discussions and see a lot of discussion regarding The Zombies appreciation, while forgetting that this little set has performed just as well.
      If this set maintains its current trend it will reach around $ 70 by next year. However, I do expect its CAGR to lower a little bit as the post EOL spike recedes, and maybe stabilize around 20 % or so, still a pretty good return.
      - 21005 Fallingwater

      My Analysis: One of the biggest and more detailed Architecture sets, this one makes for an impressive model once completed. Since the Fallingwater is currently in production, the negative numbers you see on the table above should not influence your decision on purchasing this set as an investment or not. Especially important to mention this when you see that this model is currently in the Top 25 Amazon Best Sellers, making it the highest placed set of the entire theme in the US!
      Value Prediction: I don't see this set performing as well as the JHC in percentage terms, just because of its larger size and price, that will probably be unattractive to some of the same people that decided to jump and get the JHC since it was more affordable, and continues to be even after EOL. I would say that this set will price around $ 130 about 6 to 12 months after retirement but keep increasing from that figure steadily and into the high 100s in a couple of years.
      - 21002 Empire State Building

      My Analysis: If there is a set ready to replicate the success of the JHC, this is it. The Empire State Building is surely one of the most easily recognizable skyscrapers around the world, and despite not being the tallest, its design still amazes and interests people every single day. Around the same piece count as the JHC, The Empire State Buildings currently sits at # 74 in Amazon's 100 Best Sellers (LEGO), making it the third most popular set of the theme after Fallingwater and The White House, when using this list as a proxy for popularity.
      Value Prediction: Look for this set to follow the footsteps of the JHC. It will quickly appreciate in value after going EOL and reach close to the same $ 60 a few months after. This is one landmark everyone wants to have, and don't be surprised if it actually surpasses the Hancock on the appreciation department.
      - 21003 Seattle Space Needle

      My Analysis: Another highly recognizable US landmark with a relatively low piece count and a nice low price. This set is currently another one on the Amazon Best Sellers Top 100 (LEGO), allowing us to make the assumption that it is one of the most popular LEGO sets out there. To me, one of the better builds on the whole theme (Mostly Technic), and paired with its extremely good design and display value make it one of the best choices out there for the Architecture investor.
      Value Prediction: Again, based on sheer popularity, this set should break the $ 50 mark not long after retirement, probably in less than a year.
      - 21004 Solomon Guggenheim Museum

      My Analysis: A great looking model that makes justice to the original building. One of the most interesting designs for a museum worldwide, this particular set seems to be highly popular in Europe. Present in some of the Top 100 Amazon best sellers list (LEGO) in the old continent, the museum will probably have a larger appeal than the average Architecture set outside the US, giving investors willing to ship internationally an even better customer base. A little high on the price per piece department, even for Architecture sets, is one of this set's disadvantages.
      Value Prediction: Not sure how much the high price per piece may influence the appreciation of this set after retirement, but if I had to guess I will say that the impact will be at least considerable. The popularity of this set abroad will probably help, but I don't see this set doubling in value in less than a year like most of the small sets in the theme. I would say around $ 65 within a year.
      - 21006 The White House

      My Analysis: Arguably the most well known building in the entire world, and one of the most popular as well. The White House LEGO model is as accurate as it can be while still made of LEGO bricks, with its nice design and the very cool looking tress and lawn surrounding it, making it a perfect display piece in any room or office.
      The set is currently in place # 36 in the US Amazon Best Sellers (LEGO) list. and places in some of the other countries' lists, most notably in Spain #5 amd Canada #59). Even though these lists constantly change, this set shows up pretty consistently.
      Value Prediction: One of the most safe investments in the whole theme, the iconic nature and significance of the building around the world will propel this set to what I believe to be one of the highest returns on investment of the whole Architecture theme. I expect this set to double in value within a year and a half after retirement and continue climbing until it matures probably around $ 150.
      - 21011 Brandenburg Gate

      My Analysis: Another icon in world history priced fairly when considering only raw number of pieces and not weight. Midsized, and as all models of the line, very accurate to the real thing. I won't say that this is necessarily a bad thing, but I was really surprised that this set is not in any of the Amazon Best Sellers' lists, not even in Germany. It has a somewhat low activity level on eBay as well, so I am tempted to say that there is the possibility for this set to be one of those highly sought after "sleeper" sets.
      Value Prediction: The Brandenburg Gate represents a big part of the world's history in the years of WWII, but especially Europe's history and struggle during that time. I am not really convinced that this set is not going to be a popular one after retirement just because of the apparent bad signals of the current market, but rather expect it to become a hit in the future with its price going up with the help of what I think will be lower supply. You will probably see this set reach $ 55 a year after going EOL.
      - 21007 Rockefeller Center

      My Analysis: Another popular structure, but with a similar PPP problem as with the Guggenheim museum. This is by far not one of my favorite Architecture models. It is still a very accurate piece, just not one I am crazy about owning either for building or investing. The building is popular mostly here in the US, but it is just overshadowed by several other more prominent ones like the Empire State, Willis Tower, etc.
      Value Prediction: In my opinion, this set will appreciate after EOL but not by as much or as fast as some of the other models we have discussed above. I actually think that the building's popularity is not as high as to creating a spike in value after retirement, but rather a slow increase over the years after. I see it going to $ 55 max. a year after it disappears from stores.
      - 21010 Robie House

      My Analysis: The largest of the models in the Architecture theme, this set is sure to be a winner after going EOL. The amount of pieces guarantees a lot of the small details that make the difference between a good set and a great one. Plus, you get a large number of the new dark red color that is not found in many sets, let alone in the quantity included here.
      Value Prediction: The fact that this set has a PPP close to sets like the UCS Imperial Shuttle and other large sets, while only giving you thousands of mainly small pieces may serve as a deterrent or at least a speed bump in the way towards price appreciation. Still, a set of this size and detail will probably perform well in the secondary market, and I see it hitting $ 235 within the year.
      - 21000 Willis Tower

      My Analysis: this model is just a continuation of the 21000-1 Sears Tower release to reflect the name change the real building went through a couple of years ago. Nothing else worth mentioning that I didn't say on that model's analysis.
      Value Prediction: Expect this set to follow the same path of the original 21000-1 and appreciate very well after retirement. What's more, the performance of these two equal sets will probably follow that of the John Hancock Center once there is no more Willis Tower on the market. I think that the original Sears Tower LEGO will get to the $ 60 range a lot faster than this one, since it has already been "retired", but the Willis variation will probably be close to that same number just a couple of months after it is discontinued, maybe just a couple of dollars cheaper.
      - 21009 Farnsworth House

      My Analysis: A really interesting and good looking model, this is definitely one of my favorites despite it not being one of the most well known structures of the line. The detail is amazing, the white plates make the set look very nice and as if it were only one big plate, plus the detailing inside of the house with the small brick used to replicate seating areas and the kitchen is just amazing looking. One of the best models of the whole theme, in my opinion.
      Value Prediction: despite not being one of the most easily recognizable structures, especially outside the US or other than real architecture fans, this set will perform just because of its unique design and detailing. I see it going above $ 80 within a year after retirement.
      - 21008 Burj Khalifa

      My Analysis: This is my least favorite model of the Architecture line, and apparently a number of other LEGO fans around the world agree with me, based on the reviews and ratings on LEGO S@H. There are two main things that bother me about this model, one being that despite having more than 200 pieces, more than 50% of those are the round 1x1 brick. It just makes the build more repetitive than any of the other models of the line. The other problem, and a more important one, is that the model itself is very unstable, since moving the set or the slightest touch can start to make the round bricks fall apart. The model looks accurate, but these two things are issues I really don't want to deal with.
      Value Prediction: I would think that the instability issue and the lack of variety on the pieces department will cause buyers to think they are not getting a lot of value for their money with this set. In my opinion, this will under perform the rest of the theme, but still increase in value to around $ 32 or $ 33 by the end of its first year of retirement.
      - 21012 Sidney Opera House

      My Analysis: This is the only case in the whole Architecture theme I feel the need to say the model does not replicate the real thing in the best way possible. The model looks blocky and is not as high quality as the majority of the other designs. A sad thing really, considering that the Sidney Opera House is another of those structures that is extremely easy to recognize by almost anyone in the world. I just think that LEGO could have done a better job with this one.
      Value Prediction: Despite my doubts about this set, the reviews in LEGO S@H are mostly good ones, so I would assume that it is a popular set. Even more, the structure in which it is based is one of the most popular in the world, and that will more than likely help its performance after going EOL. If the buyers have a better view of this set than I do, as it seems is the case, I will say that it will probably follow the most popular models in this theme and get close to doubling in value in a little more than a year to a year and a half.
      - 21013 Big Ben

      My Analysis: As LEGO says, this is the most famous clock tower in the entire world. What's more, the model is really nice looking and detailed for the amount of pieces and is one of the few Architecture sets that has consistently been selling for above retail even while still in production. Another positive aspect is the fact that it was one of the most popular sets of the line in the month of December, selling close to 190 sets during that month alone!
      Value Prediction: Famous landmark, great design, this set will definitely go over $ 50 a short time after being retired.
      - 21014 Villa Savoye

      My Analysis: If we use eBay activity as a proxy for popularity of LEGO sets, this is easily one of the least popular of the Architecture line, since from January to March, only 5 new copies of this model have been sold on the auction site. This is particularly impressive since I think this is one of the best looking models of the whole line, and a very different type of build than the other ones. Important to note is that, even though in the US this set does not have that much activity, it is present in several of the European Amazon Best Sellers Top 100 lists. So, it would seem very clear that the popularity of this set right now is very high in Europe, while not that much here in the US.
      To me, this is a good thing, and makes me feel sure that this will be one of those "sleeper" sets I was talking about before. One can probably assume that the domestic market buyers want to get all the most well known landmarks/buildings first before getting to the Savoye, but there may be a point when it is too late to do and they will have to source them from the secondary market.
      Value Prediction: One of the best candidates for the sleeper set nomination, this one may very well get to $ 100 or more a couple of months after its first year in retirement.
      - 21016 Sungnyemun

      My Analysis: Only the second landmark/structure from the Asian continent, this set has been on the retiring soon list of LEGO for a couple of weeks now, and it is practically retired at this point. One of the better looking sets, the Sungnyemun has already started to go up in value, and will probably continue to do so over the next couple of weeks.
      Value Prediction: The set is currently experience the EOL price bump, and has reached a CAGR of close to 20 % in a very short period of time. Expect this trend to continue for the rest of this year.
      - 21017 Imperial Hotel

      My Analysis: This set was just released a little over a month ago. Besides being the second largest set of the Architecture theme, there is not really enough information at this point to go into more detail.
      ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      If you have made it this far, congratulations. We have travelled all over the world analyzing each and every one of the current Architecture themed sets along with me giving you a small appreciation of where I expect each set to be shortly after retirement. Let's try now to wrap things up.
      I would like to give you a short summary about the strengths and weaknesses I perceive this particular theme has, before going into a short conclusion about where I think the theme as a whole will be going.
      Strengths:
      AFOL oriented theme Recreations of important buildings and landmarks Very detailed designs Several different sizes and price points Inclusion of informative booklets in each set Great display pieces Highly collectable Weaknesses:
      Higher priced than the average LEGO set Some models are not as well known or popular as others Longer production runs that the average LEGO theme (so far) So as you can see, from my point of view this theme is a very solid investment choice that, other than a few disadvantages, offers some great potential for the future. Will this theme rise as high as some of the skyscrapers it has replicated? I would most definitely say yes.
      Thanks for reading.
       
    • Fcbarcelona101
      Will box damage reduce the value of my sets when it is time to sell them?
      We have all asked ourselves this question at some point, and it is actually seen on the forums relatively often, so I think it is time to evaluate a little more in depth how much does box condition really matter for the LEGO investor once it is time to get rid of some of those sets we have stored in our closets (or whole rooms, if you are lucky).
      There are very different types of damage to consider, ranging from the typical small creased corner, passing through the 2cm puncture, to the the run of the mill completely trashed box. It has been my personal experience that most of these does not really matter much when it comes the time to sell the sets, mostly due to the fact that the large majority of people who buy LEGO in the secondary market do so to build them instead of as an investment, and as a result most of them have absolutely no use for an empty box. However, I will take a more objective approach in this article and find actual examples of sets sold over the past two months on eBay with different levels of box damage and try to compare to the same sets in MISB condition. This comparison will really give us a pretty good idea about how justified are the worries of some investors regarding the condition of their boxes.
      Let's see some examples and compare the prices each auction ended up selling for against each other as well as Brickpicker's Price Guide (New). Again, this are all SOLD listings.
      Example 1: Quidditch Match 4737 (BIN)


      Example 2: Ninjago Ultra Sonic Raider 9449 (Auction Style)


      Example 3: Dino 5888 Ocean Interceptor (BIN) 6 copies, same damage.


      Example 4: Heartlake Vet 3188 (BIN) 5 sold sets


      Example 5: B-Wing 10227 (Auction Style)


      So far, this have all been relatively cheap or even still available in stores, let's see some examples of more expensive retired sets.
      Example 6: Boeing 787 Dreamliner 10177 (BIN)


      Example 7: Grand Carousel 10196 (BIN) The seller did not have a picture of the damage, but in his description he notes: "Box had other boxes stored on top and the set box is mashed in on the top and one corner. The damage is not all that bad but if you are looking for a pristine box then do not buy this one."

      *There is one sold listing for around $1,700 included in the mean. Example 8: Cafe Corner 10182 (Auction Style)


      Apparently, there is now way for me to go back more than 60 days of my own sold listings so I won't be able to actually place the pictures in here of my own personal damaged box sales, but I can at least tell you about some of them
      Example 9: Hogwarts Express 4841 (BIN) Completely trashed box, dented, crushed, creases everywhere.

      Example 10: Imperial Shuttle 10212 (BIN) This one was way back when the price was hovering around $ 320 (Feb-Mar). Sold two in a week, one MISB one damaged for the exact same price. (Price guide value from Mar 13)

      Now that you have seen first hand the real impact box damage has on the value of your sets, I would like to leave you with some comments.
      First of all, it is very important you take into consideration that most of the time a set with box damage will end up being significantly cheaper for you as an investor than one that is MISB. For example, on the recent Amazon Haunted House and AA sale a few weeks back several members, including myself, received boxes in bad shape. I can't tell you what some of the others did, but I did contact Amazon who suggested sending me a replacement for the set at the same price, or that I kept the set for a discount that ended up being $ 36, bringing the set down to around $ 100!. This is not something uncommon when dealing with Amazon, as most of the time they prefer to discount a significant percentage of the price instead of going over all the hassle and cost that involves getting a set back from a customer and issuing a replacement. This is not unique to Amazon, however, as you will probably get the same treatment by customer oriented sellers with great reputations on eBay and even with some of the other major retailers.
      Another thing that you have to consider relates to when you actually decide to sell the damaged box set. If you are listing on eBay you are better served by making very obvious that your item comes damaged both in the title and in the description. This is one of those cases were you don't want to downplay the level of damage your box presents in hopes of getting more money, as the buyer could very well ask for a refund/discount or even file a SNAD (Significantly Not As Described) case, in which case the probabilities of you losing both the set and the money are relatively high.
      So, when selling sets with damaged packaging I suggest including something to the effects of *DAMAGED BOX* in the title and then once again in the description with a more detailed explanation. Of course, you also need to add several images showing every single crease or imperfection, for those buyers who just don't like to read the descriptions. Even then, you might get some complaints, but that is true of pretty much every listing. If you are really worried about this though, you can even message the buyer before shipping to confirm he knows he is getting a "damaged" item.
      Finally, when selling these type of product (I would say always, even) use the Buy It Now format. By listing the price you want, as long as it is realistic, you will pretty much secure exactly the amount you are expecting. The special problem with listing damaged boxes in auction format is that you don't know if the buyer you are looking for will come during the 7 days your item will be listed for sale. With BIN you will have plenty of time to get a buyer who is not really interested in the box at all to purchase your item. If you want to see cases in which box condition does seem to have an impact, it will almost always be in auction style listings.
      Those are the three major factors to consider when investing in damaged boxes. As with anything, there are pros and cons, but I consider that in this case the benefits (discounts on price / higher profits) outweigh the costs (more time listing / somewhat higher risk).
      One last thing I would like to mention relates to highly collectable items, like a 1st Edition 10179 or similar sets. In those rare cases you are in fact better served to secure a MISB set in order to maximize your profits when it comes to sell it. Having said that, there are really not that many sets that would fall into this category.
      I hope I have put some of your concerns to rest when it comes to holding onto those damaged boxes. As you could see yourself, most of the time the impact they have on your profits is negligible and certainly well less than what you usually get in the form of discounts when originally purchased.
      Thanks for reading.
      *Whether your item sells or not will also depend on your feedback and listing terms. I know this is pretty obvious, but wanted to include this note just in case.
       
    • Quacs
      When I was a kid, I remember my younger brother wanted to be involved in everything I was. When I got a bike for my birthday, he wanted one. If I went to summer camp, he wanted to go, too. If I was hanging out with my buddies, he was tagging along behind us. As I’ve grown older and seen my kids behave similarly, I have come to understand that’s the nature of siblings. The younger ones look up to and emulate their elder siblings.
      In the wonderful world of Lego, the older brother is growing up: Ninjago, the explosively popular theme that debuted in 2012 is set to return in 2014 after a brief hiatus. Lego originally announced that holiday 2012 would be the final Ninjago release before retirement, allowing little brother, Legends of Chima, to claim the spotlight. Yet, late last year, Lego announced on a message board that Ninjago would be rereleased in 2014, elbowing little brother Chima to the back of a crowded pre-teen market segment.
      Ninjago’s runaway success was based upon appealing, detailed sets being marketed better than any theme before. Lego’s primary marketing vehicle was the smash television series: Ninjago: Masters of Spinjitsu. Ninjago took Cartoon Network by storm, and by its final second season episode amassed a domestic viewership of almost 3.5 million, good for the highest rating on US cable television in its time slot. The Ninjago product line also included the hot-selling “Spinners”, a supplemental game within the theme that pit Ninja minifigs in simulated combat against their skeleton foes. In two short years, Ninjago went from four ninjas training in a dojo to one of Lego’s top three selling themes.
      Sometime during Ninjago’s ascent, Lego decided to shelve after a three year run in accordance with their typical theme strategy. To fill the void left by the wildly popular Ninjago, Lego created Legends of Chima, a theme built around a society of sentient, anthropomorphized animals that quest for Chi, the “life-source” of these advanced creatures. It appears the Chima theme has been in the works for a while, and will utilize a similar product line and marketing strategy to Ninjago that includes kid-appealing animal characters, a television show, and another ancillary “game” that utilizes single wheeled zip-cars called Speedorz. The first wave of Chima sets was released in early 2013, with a plan to ramp up with a second release of sets and the television show in mid-2013.
      With Chima poised to become Lego’s lead offering to the pre-teen market segment, Lego decided to change tack by reintroducing the recently retired Ninjago theme at the beginning of 2014. While Ninjago fans rejoiced, this created some uncertainty for the Chima theme. The obvious, major concern was that a new Ninjago release could cannibalize Chima’s nascent sales, and possibly kill the theme all together. However, with the few dribbles of 2014 Ninjago information coming out, it appears there may be room for both Chima and Ninjago. The first rumor to emerge is that Ninjago’s new release will ditch the snake villains for an enemy that elevates the Ninjago conflict to more mature viewers: evil robots. As evidenced in the poster released by Lego shown below, the introspective, oddball ninja Zane may discover the source of his social discomfort: it appears he may actually be a robot!
       

      The poster also shows some type of robot in the shadow of Zane’s mechanized ocular orb, perhaps a reflection of the future struggle for Zane, or a robotic enemy that awaits the Spinjitsu masters.
      Needless to say, adding robots points to more complex storylines and more mature and nuanced characters. Think of the Terminator series, or the Borg from Star Trek The Next Generation. Both have very frightening Armageddon-type storylines with villains that show little human emotion or qualities. With this turn, Ninjago will begin to encroach on science fiction that typically appeals to an older demographic. The departure from a historical context to a science fiction platform allows Ninjago to follow their core fan group that are growing out of the younger, pre-teen market segment. Ninjago’s changes also create a void in one of Lego’s target market segments that I expect Legends of Chima to fill. Our Chi-loving animal friends should fit the demographic gap vacated by Ninjago quite nicely and allow Lego to dominate both of these crucial market segments and bridge the gap to teen and adult themes like Lord of the Rings/The Hobbit.
      What effect will this new market segmentation have on investors’ strategies for these themes? For one, retired Ninjago sets should continue to be profitable, and will likely get a boost with new episodes airing sometime in 2014. Any investors with Epic Dragon Battle, Fire Temple, and Destiny’s Bounty sets must consider stashing a few of these away for another year in anticipation of the Ninjago buzz coming in 2014. The new Ninjago release should open up new investment options in a year as well. Per BrickShow News, the Hungarian Blog Kockamania http://www.kockamania.hu/ claims to know the new Ninjago set names, and have leaked them as follows:
      LEGO 70720 -- Air Breaks (Hover Hunter)
      LEGO 70721 -- Kai fighter (Fighter Kai)
      LEGO 70722 -- OverBorg attack (OverBorg Attack)
      LEGO 70723 -- Thunder offensive (Thunder Raider)
      LEGO 70724 -- NinjaCopter (NinjaCopter)
      LEGO 70725 -- Nindroid mechanical dragon (Nindroid MechDragon)
      LEGO 70726 -- Destroyers (Destructoid)
      Investors will be drooling over the release of 70725 Nindroid MechDragon that appears to extend the phenomenally performing Ninjago dragon line, and with Ninjago sets typically increasing in size within the theme’s number sequence, the dragon appears to be one of the larger sets of the theme.
      As for Chima, Ninjago’s reentry into the Lego catalog still could stunt its popularity as a theme despite Ninjago’s older market segment. The good news for Chima is that it has another seven months to launch the television show, and to introduce a newer, stronger wave of sets that includes the dramatic 70010 Lion Chi Temple and the gritty 70014 Croc Swamp Hideout, both anchor sets of rival tribes. On the downside, Ninjago could still steal some of the 5-9 year old demographic from Chima even if Ninjago is geared toward a more mature audience. As we all know, little brothers still like to tread on the heels of their older brethren. I believe the creativity of the Chima sets, the release of the new anchor sets, and the television show launch still portends popularity for Chima, but its upside may be capped from Ninjago. For those that believe the Ninjago move foretold Lego’s dissatisfaction with the performance of Chima, TLG is still firmly behind Chima, as evidenced by its recent announcement of a new Chima themed area of the water park in Orlando, aptly titled “World of Chima”.
      From a performance standpoint, I think Chima theme returns may mirror the Pirates of the Caribbean theme: strong at the low and high price points, but weak among the mid-level sets. Here are the performance graphs of the two PoTC set releases:
      First release:

      Second release:

      These sets are shown in order of size, from largest to smallest piece count. As you can see, both graphs have the shape of an inverted bell curve with the best performing sets on the ends of the size spectrum and the worst performing sets in the middle. If the Chima television show is a success, I believe returns on Chima sets will follow this pattern as well, so look for small sets like Razcal’s Chi Raider and large sets like Cragger’s Command Ship and Lion Chi Temple to perform well, while medium sized sets like Laval’s Royal Fighter, Lenox’s Lion Attack and Eris’ Eagle Interceptor to languish. There’s one caveat to this: if the television show highlights a certain set and makes it iconic, it could very well become the next Ice Dragon.
      Only time will tell whether Chima will be a hit on the secondary market, while the established and popular Ninjago theme continues its secondary market gains. As always, retail market popularity will drive secondary market demand, so if the television show continues the popularity of the first three episodes, Chima will have sets that perform well after retirement. While little brothers are usually tag alongs when they’re young, if they learn from their older brethren they can mature into great people. The same holds true for Chima – don’t let this theme pass you by.
       
    • Darth Lego
      I recently went to an unofficial LEGO convention called World War Brick 2013. It took place at the Brickmania headquarters in Minneapolis, Minnesota on June 28th-30th.
      They had a whole slew of military related displays that were either built by Brickmania, the Twin Cities LEGO Train Club, the Greater Midwest Lego® Train Club, and the weekend pass holders who brought their own personal displays.
      They had three groups of people.
      Staff. Those people were vendors who were selling items or were employees of Brickmania. 100 Weekend pass holders who paid $50 or $60 to display MOCs, get a goodie bag, and attend exclusive activities. (My dad and I fall into this category.) The general public during the public hours of the event. I attended several presentations about many LEGO-related items including minifigure customization, waterslide decal application, and a Brickarms presentation. (Will unveiled a prototype weapon.) They were dozens of huge displays and a huge mosaic of the Flag Raising on Iwo Jima.
      Below are some various pictures from the event.
      A huge dinosaur rises out of the water on a train display.
      A huge castle tower.
      A lighthouse.
      A picture of "Germany, April 1945."
      The 3739: Blacksmith Shop designed by Daniel Siskind.
      Some prototype village sets including the Blacksmith Shop.
      Some pictures below are from World War Brick's website. Link: http://worldwarbrick.com/ World War Brick's Goody Bag. It had an event exclusive Jeep, WWB T-Shirt, exclusive Brickarms, and a cool bag. Other items were included as well.

      Rumrunner’s Micro Battlefield Game. I didn't get a chance to play it, but I heard it was a lot of fun!

      Awesome MOC on display.

      Various pictures from the Battle of Peleliu Landing display. (My personal photos for this display needed to be resized so I decided to use some professional pictures from Brickmania's blog. Link: http://brickmaniatoys.com/2013/07/03/brickmania-models-photographed-by-doug-heimstead/ (Photos by Doug Heimstead.)

      Below are some of my photos of this display. You can barely see the edge of the water at the very top and it shows how big this display truly is.
      During Will's Brickarms presentation he unveiled a new Brickarms called the BrickArms M2HB .50 Caliber machine gun. (I talked to Will and he was a very nice guy.) It is in the early production stages. Below is a photo of it.

      Raffle tickets were given out for participating in various activities. One teen won 4 times at the closing raffle! Link to the 2 photos below: http://www.flickr.com/photos/toomuchdew/with/9187763905/

      The Iwo Jima mosaic was my favorite activity of the event. Here is a description of it from WWB's website.
      My Dad and I ended up completing 5 baseplates so I got 2 U.S. Marines and 3 U.S. Ranger minifigures. It took about an hour and a half complete each baseplate. I'm proud to say I helped complete such an iconic mosaic!
      Picture of the owner of Brickmania on the left, (Dan Siskind is a very nice and down to earth guy in the black shirt.), and a Brickmania employee on the right who planned and coordinated the display,(His name is Landon and he was very helpful during the waterslide decal application workshop. Thank you!), in front of the mosaic. It really shows how big it really is!

      Lastly here are some pictures of some items I either got in my Goody Bag or I purchased. (I have some duplicate items from my Dad's goody bag.) Minifigures I got for helping with the mosaic.
      Brickmania M4 Sherman I bought. Well worth every penny.
      A Brickmania M1A1 75MM pack howitzer.
      A Brickmania heavy mortar.
      My entire WW2 LEGO collection after World War Brick. I have 13 minifigures, a 7622: Race for the Stolen Treasure, a Brickmania M18 Hellcat, a Brickmania M4 Sherman, two exclusive WWB jeeps with canopies, a Brickmania heavy mortar, and a Brickmania M1A1 75MM Pack Howitzer.
      Some of the Brickarms I bought.
      Overall my WWB experience was awesome! I got to participate in activities, meet with lots of awesome people including Dan, Will, and Landon, help complete a huge mosaic, buy some cool Brickmania sets and some Brickarms, and see some awesome displays. It was a very fun experience!
      The following quote is from http://worldwarbrick.com/.
      I plan on going again next year.
      Thanks for reading this blog post and I hope you liked it! I plan on writing a LEGO Customs article and I also plan on reviewing my Brickmania kits so stay tuned!
      If you want to view more photos of this event please visit the following websites.
      http://worldwarbrick.com/ http://brickmaniatoys.com/ http://brickmania.com/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/toomuchdew/with/9187763905/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/95492142@N00/  
       
         
         
       
       

       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       


×
×
  • Create New...