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    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      If you regularly read threads in the forums, especially the thread in the “Amazon” section, then you have probably seen something about “CamelCamelCamel”. Now your first thought might be “Why don't they just call it 3 Camels? That's way easier” and that's understandable, but your second thought should be “ Am I totally missing out?”. Yes is the answer to that question.
      It's really very simple. CamelCamelCamel is a free website where you can sign up and be sent an alert any time items you desire on Amazon.com hit a certain price threshold that you set. You wonder how these guys on BrickPicker immediately see when Amazon has a sale. A bunch of Camels is how.
      Setting this up takes about 5 minutes, provided you know the sets you want, know what price you want to pay for them, and have an email address (I know, they clearly ask a lot of you). To do this:
      Go to the website at www.CamelCamelCamel.com Right on the front page click “Signup” and follow the process to become a member. This is where you will need that email address. Once done, you can click inside the search URL at the top and immediately type ina set you want to put on your alert's list. Once you have the set/item you want, select the title which should be a link and it will take you to a page were you can set the price thresholds. You have three options: Amazon Price, 3rd Party New Price, and 3rd Party Used Price. Here you can set up a threshold for all three or just the ones you want. You can also set a label for each that will be present when you are alerted. Currently my Haunted House alert says “Buy This”. Once you are done, click “Start Tracking” and you will see your tracked items. Rinse and repeat. So what does CamelCamelCamel offer besides this? Well number 1, what more do you need? I think someone is expecting a little too much for free...
      Either way, the site delivers. Let's say you have already set up a giant wish-list of all the sets you want but can't afford on Amazon. Here you can click a link at the top to “import your Amazon wishlist” straight into your tracking system and then set price thresholds.
      On top of that, there is a CamelCamelCamel browser add on as long as you use Mozilla Firefox or Google Chrome (yes they discriminate against Internet Explorer). DOWNLOAD THIS. It's amazing!
      Once you install it, you click a cool little camel while you are on an item page in Amazon and a chart shows up and shows you data from the website over the past several months so you can see if this has been less or more, etc. This is shown below:

      So what are you waiting for? Go get those alerts set up so you aren't like me and wait to set them up until a day after the Lego Haunted House was $135! I mean seriously, what was I thinking?!?
      Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
       
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      If you have been registered on BrickPicker for a while now and have been cruising though the site, you have probably seen some references to a site called “BrickLink”. You may also hear the phrase “BrickLink it”. This is referring to a site called BrickLink.com that sells everything Lego you could eve think of. For those of you who haven't visited the site or haven't explored all of it benefits, I wanted to make a quick blog about the things that you should look to BrickLink for and what benefits the site has.
      There are thousands of sites out there and none of them are the best at everything (except maybe the upcoming classifieds?!?). The site itself is a listing website. Think of it like Ebay Stores. Everything is a Buy It Now listing and each seller has a store of other items they are selling along with the one you are looking at.
      Like other websites, BrickLink sells new and used Lego sets. They carry pretty much every Lego set ever made (obviously carry is referring to the sellers, but its hard to find a set with no listings). On top of that, they have a “parts” and a “minifigs” section where you can buy every Lego part and minifig ever created at very good prices. On top of this, they also sell the original instruction booklets and boxes for the sets as well as stickers and other inserts.
      To begin to buy, visit the main page www.bricklink.com. You will have to create an account to begin using the site, so click the link on the side that says “registration”. Registration is very simple; all you will need to have to do is your email address and your name, etc. Once registered they will send you an email confirming your account and you can log in!
      Once there, you can click on the “Buy” section and choose between sets, parts, minifigs, boxes, instructions, etc.
      Another cool section here that a lot of other places don't have is the “custom items” section. Here they allow people to list their custom items they have created out of Lego or involving Lego. An example is a Star Wars Hoth themed Chess-Set. This is one of the only sites with something of this nature!
      Once you decide what you want to look for, you can click on that section inside of the “buy” tab, like “sets”, and you get a listing of themes or you can search for a certain item. Once you have narrowed down the item you want to look for, you can browse through all of the items matching your search. Items are automatically listed in order of best price, lowest to highest so that you see the best deals first.
      Each listing shows the price and condition of the item as well as whether it is complete or not. BrickLink includes sellers from all over the world, so you will be able to browse foreign listings as well by price. You can sort these at the top, along with by used and new, and by the listings completeness.
      BrickLink listings show the price just for the set itself; shipping is an extra price added on that the buyer pays. The bad thing is you must look for it rather than it being listed right on the page like at Ebay. To do this, click on the seller's name to go to their store. At the top of their store, you should see something called a “Splash Page”. If you click here, 99% of the time the seller will list what their shipping prices are for standard items. You can also click a button to message the seller and inquire how much shipping would be to your zip code.
      Another great BrickLink feature is the “Wanted List”. If you go to the home page by clicking “Home” at the top, you will see a middle section in the website dashboard called “Wanted List”. If you click this, you can choose sets by theme and create wanted lists for them. They aren't all on the same list like Ebay's watch list: Instead you can sort them anyway you like. You can also filter the listings by price, by country the seller is from, and by used/new, complete/incomplete. This feature also allows you options to set up email alerts. You can set price minimums so that if a new listing is set up that is lower than your watching price, you will immediately be emailed. I have these set up on about 20 sets, and every few weeks I get a set off BrickLink for a pretty good price.
      BrickLink sellers also have the ability to create savings for you two ways: By having deals/sales and by offering bulk pricing. If you look for items in the “buying” section, you will commonly see discounted prices shown by the original price with a line through it. This means the seller is having a sale. This is another way the benefit of the wanted list comes into play. If you are watching an item and a seller decides to discount it under your price minimum, you will get an email.
      The bulk pricing is really great for investors. A set you want multiples of may be a little overpriced if you buy one, but if you buy 4, the seller might give you a $10 break per set. This can sweeten some deals for anyone looking to big time invest in a certain set. Some sellers also offer bulk pricing if oyu buy multiple items from their store.
      If you have ever heard of someone saying they want to “Rebrick a set”, BrickLink is really the place to do that. You can click on the widget on the front page dashboard called “Wanted List” and then inside here click “Part out a set”. Once you click this, you can choose the set and tell BrickLink if you are looking for all of it, part of it, minifigures, etc. Once you are done, this imports all the set data into your wanted list. Once there, you can browse and see all the best listings for these items and try to use several sellers to get all the parts you need to put the set together.
      The real BrickLink advantages
      Why use BrickLink? Well, first of all, its another Lego site to waste all your time on. But more importantly, it carries more than about every site out there variety wise. Though Ebay has a very big customer and seller base, there are more consistent listings for every item on BrickLink, especially if you are shopping for individual parts or parting out a set.
      The Wanted list is really nice – about the only thing that compares to it is CamelCamelCamel which is a site that watches Amazon.com for price drops. The emails are really nice and they send you the exact listing so you can quickly go there and checkout.
      The custom Lego listings are another really great part that no one else really has. If you are into special projects, you can browse these listings and find something you really like or just get ideas on what to do next. There are thousands of listings here where as there are only a limited number on Ebay.
      So try BrickLink out! Make sure once you are there you visit the BrickLink help tab on the front page. They have everything you need to know about the site there – in much more detail than I can in a blog!
      Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
       
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      When doing some research on Ebay for another article I did, Should I throw away the box from the set I just opened? I noticed some outrageously high prices for used sets on Ebay - way over the Brickpicker pricing. At first I just figured these were just some Buy It Now (BIN) listings that one poor sap jumped on, but looking through them, more than half were auctions where tons of people bid. I became curious as to why – what makes these auctions so appealing that people spend extra money over the average Ebay price on the used set?
      I decided to find out and report some raw data back along with some of my conclusions that would put together a good example of how to maximize what you can get for your used set on Ebay. For my data, I picked sets that are well retired and sell often on Ebay. I wanted these to be several different sizes and all have good used growth so we would get a wide range of results.
      I came up with six sets I decided to do:
      10030 SW Star Destroyer 10143 SW Death Star 2 10196 Grand Carousel 10217 HP Diagon Alley 6211 Middle Star Destroyer – went with this so I had a little bit of data on the same set – just large and small of it 7741 UCS BatMobile Now I decided to look each of these sets up Used on Ebay. Old listings on Ebay only last for 90 days, so this is guaranteed to be recent data. I looked up the sold listings by “Used” and “Highest price plus shipping”. I took one BIN and one Auction from each and recorded all the details from them. From this we can discern two general things: What it takes to maximize profits on a used set and what it takes in a BIN listing to have someone pull the trigger.
      First a few of the rules of my search:
      Sets are allowed to be incomplete (As this proves how well they created the listing) but cannot include any significant extras like other sets or minifigures. Shipping is only included if it is a flat rate – otherwise we will use a control shipping amount of $10 All listings were from US- Not discriminating, just a control. Sets that were listed as used but actually sealed are excluded. Sets that only had one bid were disallowed Now for the data. The criteria from the listing I pulled are explained below:
      10030 Star Destroyer
      BrickPicker Used Set Price: $631.04
      BIN Listing Sold: $948 plus calculated shipping (10$)
      Percent over BP Price: ((958/631.04)-1) *100 = 50.2%
      Included everything, box and instructions Had an extended description of the item and how it was used under the Ebay condition of “Used” (This is something you can set up in your listing where you expand on why it's marked the way it is. It appears directly under the “condition” section at the top of the listing.) Mentioned the pieces were separated in Ziplock bags Details what's not there : Inner Boxes Ebay Store Described how he ships with insurance, and how the box will be packed. Had a picture of each individual part of the set, instructions, box, pieces. Doesn't mention smoke free. Colorful Mentions rules (these are things that a seller says about how payment must be, how feedback must be, etc,) High Feedback and rating. Listing: http://www.ebay.com/itm/LEGO-STAR-WARS-10030-IMPERIAL-STAR-DESTROYER-UCS-COMPLETE-SET-MANUAL-BOX-/321128057125?pt=Building_Toys_US&hash=item4ac4b94925
      Auction Listing Sold: $860 plus calculated shipping (10$)
      Percent over BP Price: ((870/631.04) -1)*100 = 37.9%
      Included everything, box and instructions No extended Description Doesn't say how shipped Described all parts that had wear and imperfections. Up-close pictures of the box and instruction manual and the set itself 10 pictures. Not Ebay Store Described how it would be shipped: included insurance and delivery signature. Pictures of all wear along with individual parts of set. Smoke free Ended 4:30PM PDT on Sunday Not really high feedback Listing: http://www.ebay.com/itm/LEGO-Imperial-Star-Destroyer-10030-Ultimate-Collector-Series-/310669058297?pt=Building_Toys_US&hash=item485551a0f9&nma=true&si=%252FZDV%252BMT2o3W%252Fhz0JThzyuYnz%252Bc8%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557
      10143 Death Star
      BrickPicker Used Set Price: $534.20 although around $580 when sold (will use $580)
      BIN Listing Sold: $898 plus calculated shipping (10$)
      Percent over BP Price: ((908/534.2) -1)*100 = 70%
      Everything included, box and instructions. No extended description Mentions separated in ziplock bags Ebay Store Describes whats not there – inner boxes Explains how it will be shipped with insurance. Detailed condition description individual pictures of each part of the set. No mention of smoke-free Colorful Mentions rules. High feedback and rating. Listing: http://www.ebay.com/itm/LEGO-STAR-WARS-10143-UCS-DEATH-STAR-II-COMPLETE-SET-ORIGINAL-MANUAL-/221225299902?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item33820e2fbe&nma=true&si=%252FZDV%252BMT2o3W%252Fhz0JThzyuYnz%252Bc8%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557
      Auction Listing Sold: $790 plus $30 shipping
      Percent over BP Price: ((820/534.2) -1)*100 = 53.5%
      Includes Everything, Box and instructions No extended description Explains why selling the item. No real description of the item. No Ebay Store. Shipping with Insurance. Pictures of each part of the item. Smoke Free home Mentions Rules. High Feedback Ended 11:27PM PDT Saturday Listing: http://www.ebay.com/itm/Lego-Star-Wars-UCS-10143-Death-Star-II-100-Complete-/161043619163?pt=Building_Toys_US&hash=item257ef29d5b
      Lego 10196 Grand Carousel
      BrickPicker Used Set Price: $836
      Auction Listing Sold: $910 plus $28 shipping
      Percent over BP Price: ((938/836) -1)*100 = 12%
      Comes with everything but the box No extended description Detailed description of the item and assures buyer they are all in good shape Pieces separated in Zip lock bags Describes all imperfections Explains why getting rid of it Shows pictures of each piece and how its bagged separately. Not an Ebay store No mention of the shipping Mentions smoke free home. Very colorful Mentions rules High feedback 5:09PM PDT on Tuesday http://www.ebay.com/itm/LEGO-GRAND-CAROUSEL-10196-NO-BOX-/130937532512?pt=Building_Toys_US&hash=item1e7c7c3060
      BIN Listing Sold: $899.99 plus calculated shipping ($10)
      Percent over BP Price: ((909.99/836) -1)*100 = 8.9%
      Includes everything but the box No extended description Describes some wear on the books Describes how great the set is Tells you how they are separated in bags by color Not as Ebay store No mention of shipping details Shows pictures of boxed item and the parts inside No mention of smoke-free Colorful High Feedback and rating Listing: http://www.ebay.com/itm/Lego-GRAND-CAROUSEL-Set-10196-100-COMPLETE-inc-ALL-MINIFIGS-instruction-bks-/261217188213?pt=Building_Toys_US&hash=item3cd1c1f975
      10217 Diagon Alley
      BrickPicker Used Set Price: $176
      Auction Listing Sold: $248.35 plus Free Shipping
      Percent over BP Price: ((248.35/176) -1)*100 = 41.1%
      Everything included, Box and instructions No extended description Pieces are separated by bag number in bags Lightly touches on condition Not an Ebay Store No mention of shipping Pictures of everything it came with Smoke-Free Ended 6:41PM PDT Monday Low number of feedback Listing: http://www.ebay.com/itm/Lego-Diagon-Alley-10217-Harry-Potter-Hagrid-Malfoy-Weasley-Hermione-minifigs-/121095099975?pt=Building_Toys_US&hash=item1c31d49647&nma=true&si=%252FZDV%252BMT2o3W%252Fhz0JThzyuYnz%252Bc8%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557
      BIN Listing Sold: $225 plus calculated shipping ($10)
      Percent over BP Price: ((235/176) -1)*100 = 33.5%
      Everything included, Box and instructions No extended description Run on sentence through whole listing Individual bags Assures all pieces present Not an Ebay Store No mention of shipping Pictures of each individual piece put together Smoke-free Barely any feedback at all Listing: http://www.ebay.com/itm/Harry-Potter-Lego-Diagon-Alley-10217-/171038391583?pt=Building_Toys_US&hash=item27d2aebd1f
      6211 Star Destroyer
      BrickPicker Used Set Price: $140.33, was about $155 last month (we will use $155)
      Auction Listing Sold: $284.99 plus Free Shipping
      Percent over BP Price: ((284.99/155) -1)*100 = 83.8%!!!
      Includes everything but box No extended description Mentions it will come disassembled but nothing about bags Says where he got it Possibly incomplete and describes condition as Excellent No mention of shipping or insurance No mention of smoke free Pictures of individual parts and booklets Ebay Store Ended at 9:49 PM PDT on Saturday http://www.ebay.com/itm/LEGO-ESTATE-FIND-STAR-WARS-6211-IMPERIAL-DESTROYER-99-COMPLETE-WITH-MINIFIGS-/400508526016?pt=Building_Toys_US&hash=item5d402b1dc0
      BIN Listing Sold: $224.98 plus 14.99 shipping
      Percent over BP Price: ((238.97/155) -1)*100 = 54.2%
      Includes everything but the box No Extended Description Describes condition Never been played with Doesn't mention how it will come (assembled or not) Stock picture Not an Ebay Store Doesn't mention how it will be shipped Smoke-free High feedback and rating http://www.ebay.com/itm/Lego-Star-Wars-Imperial-Star-Destroyer-6211-100-Complete-Mint-Condition-/181129900994?pt=Building_Toys_US&hash=item2a2c2ef3c2
      Lego 7741 – The UCS Batmobile
      BrickPicker Used Set Price: $107.60
      Auction Listing Sold: $152.50 plus calculated shipping ($10)
      Percent over BP Price: ((162.50/107.60) -1)*100 = 51%
      Everything included but box No extended description Explained why selling Says Mint-Condition Says how shipped (disassembled) Not an Ebay store Pictures of separated piece and instructions – also shows pieces fully separated No mention of shipping or insurance No mention if smoke free Low number of feedback Ended 1:00PM on Friday http://www.ebay.com/itm/Lego-Batman-The-Batmobile-Ultimate-Collectors-Edition-7784-/230966063631?pt=Building_Toys_US&hash=item35c6a6720f
      BIN Listing Sold: $149.95 plus $18.95 shipping
      Percent over BP Price: ((168.90/107.60) -1)*100 = 56%
      Everything but box and instructions Extended used description Says condition good Doesn't say how it will be shipped Ships insured Up close pictures of the item No mention of smoke free Alludes to the fact they insure it Ebay store Colorful Mentions rules High feedback http://www.ebay.com/itm/Lego-Batman-Super-Hero-Ultimate-Collectors-Edition-7784-THE-BATMOBILE-Complete-/300882925933?pt=Building_Toys_US&hash=item460e05196d
      Analysis
      There is a lot of raw data here, but we can definitely come to a few conclusions based on the data collected as well as some educated guesses for how an Ebay Auction for a used set should be created. I tried to pull the same types of things out of each listing that I felt “made” the listing or were uncommon in normal listings and put the data together so we can go through each and figure out how much it really affects the price. These are the following:
      Completeness: Everything included along with the instructions and Box? Extended Description in the condition field How it is shipped: In bags, disassembled, assembled, etc. If the listing explains why they are getting rid of it. If they offer a detailed description of the item. If it comes from an Ebay store If they discuss their shipping at all and offer insurance. Detailed Pictures of the item itself Smoke free home? If the listing is colorful and decorated If they mention rules: Payment rules, bidding rules, etc. High Feedback score and percent. (Score is how many they have, percent is how positive) Completeness
      The implications here are pretty obvious, so we probably didn't need a whole lot of info here, but we do have a few interesting points. In the auctions, there were 3 that didn't include the box. This suggests that, while it certainly helps to have the box, don't assume you can't get top dollar for your item just because you don't have it. If you go above and beyond in other sections, this wont be a dark spot on your listing.
      Looking at the data for the BIN listings, you actually see some that don't have the box and one doesn't have the instructions as well. This suggests that BIN is more impulsive so making a good listing of that type may not matter if you get lucky enough that someone clicks that beautiful BIN button.
      Verdict: Not a deal breaker
      Extended Description
      The data suggests this doesn't make a difference for auctions as none of them have it. A few have it in the BIN section, but this doesn't seem to really matter there either, as it was only in 2 of the listings.
      Verdict: Don't waste time on it, though it wont hurt you.
      Describing how you are shipping it
      In the auctions, everyone of them mentioned how they were shipping it. 4 said in separated bags, where as 2 just mentioned it would be disassembled. In the BIN listings, half of them mentioned it would be in separated bags, but the other half mentioned nothing at all. To me, the biggest take-away from all this was that none of the listings that were included mentioned the item being sent still assembled. Most people buying used sets want to build them and don't want to receive them already together.
      Verdict: Disassemble your used set and put it in separated bags.
      Why are you selling it?
      4 of the 10 listings mentioned a short sentence about this, ranging from “we don't have room for it”, to “it has been in storage”. Nothing really definitive here, but sometimes I think it helps people understand why your selling something when they are trying to buy it. I don't necessarily like saying something negative about the set like “Its too big”, but just mentioning that you don't need it, or you need to make some space wont hurt anything.
      Verdict: Add something small. It may make the buyers feel a little more comfortable.
      Detailed Description
      The descriptions of these listings ranged from a few words to being very detailed. I think most of us would agree a detailed listing is really important, but a few of these didn't have much except “Complete, display set”. This makes it a little less important than I thought.
      Verdict: Important to have something, but past a few words not a huge benefit.
      Ebay Store
      I included this one just to see if people preferred to buy from an Ebay store or not. As for the Auctions, only one was an Ebay Store. As for as the BIN listings, half of them were from Ebay stores. That's not necessarily that surprising since most Ebay stores prefer BIN.
      Verdict: Ebay stores don't seem to make a big difference.
      Shipping Details/Insurance
      My feelings on this before looking at the data were that describing how you were shipping and shipping it with insurance could really help your listing. After looking at the listings it seems almost half of them did that. This probably means that while its not a requirement, it definitely can help. I would say around 20% of the people on Ebay ship with insurance, but 5 of these listings mentioned it so it seems more of the better listings on Ebay include this. Plus if you use it, you will save your butt in one of those times where the post office decides to lose your package.
      Verdict: Ship it with insurance and describe how well your packing it and mention that it's shipped with insurance in the listing. It's a win-win.
      Pictures
      The takeaway from this section is: If you aren't going to use detailed pictures of your used set, you aren't going to get top dollar. Now, there was one BIN that used a stock picture, but chances are that person just got lucky. I think this proves that you are throwing away money if you don't take your cell phone or digital camera and just snap a few extra pictures.
      Verdict: Take the time to take some good detailed pictures.
      Smoke-Free Home Exactly half of the listings mentioned they were smoke-free homes. I am not going to pay as much attention to the BIN since it only takes one person to buy. So looking at the auctions only, I see 4 of them mentioned that they were smoke-free homes. While leaving this out probably doesn't hurt your auction, mentioning it (assuming its true) takes just a few words and it will only help to assure your buyer, along with details about the condition, that its in good shape and that your a caring seller. I know I wouldn't decline to buy something just because they did not have smoke-free in the listing.
      Verdict: As long as it's true, mention it.
      Colorful Listing
      This is probably the thing I was least sure about when I started looking at listings. I generally don't care what the listing looks like – I am just worried about the product. However, I am just one person and not everyone shares my same opinion. I think a colorful listing can only help, but it takes time to get this right.
      Only 1 of the auctions had colorful listings. This seems to point to the fact that people care more about the product and the actual words in the description and the pictures you present. In the BIN listings, half of them had this because they were from Ebay Stores. I think this does help a slight bit for BIN because when people are about to take that leap of faith and purchase an item with a click rather than just bid. So a colorful, decorated listing probably helps your listing look a bit more professional.
      Verdict: For an auction, its not worth it unless you have set up a template earlier. In a BIN it can probably help, but may not make too much difference.
      Mentioning Rules
      This is a section I didn't think about until I actually saw the listings. Once I read a few that had some listings about how people have to pay, how they need to bid, etc. I thought it made the seller sound more professional and much more serious when they have it.
      However, only two of the auctions had it, so it definitely wasn't a deal breaker. Half of the BIN listings had it, but I think that goes back to the fact that BIN is a little different and the buyer is taking a leap of faith. So here, the more professional you sound, the better chance your listing has of selling in a BIN situation.
      Verdict: It's probably not worth it for an auction. However, for a BIN it may create a better sense of professionalism in your listing.
      High Feedback
      Obviously you can't control your feedback score more than just selling items and getting positive feedback. But I wondered if it required high feedback scores (percentage and number) to make the most money. The answer seems to be “no”. Half of the auctions were listed by a seller with low feedback (< 200). What's even more telling, is that one of them only had a feedback score of 4, and still got top price. I think this means that customer's don't pay that much attention to the number of feedback.
      I did notice that most of the feedback percentage scores were 99.5%. So that might suggest that the percentage matters a lot more, but its pretty difficult to have lower than ~98% feedback on Ebay unless you scam people, so it doesn’t tell us a whole lot.
      All but one of the BIN listings was by a seller with high feedback. I think this makes sense because, again, the buyer is taking a chance on the seller by clicking BIN. So they are probably more aware of the seller's feedback.
      Verdict: Don't worry about your feedback score unless the percentage is really low.
      Auction End Times
      I was a little curious about this, and will be looking at it later in another article. Most people feel that an auction that ends on the weekend is better. The data here shows half of them did, but the other half were during the week so this seems inconclusive.
      However, none of them ended in the morning, so I think its safe to say people don't like to wake up early to bid on auctions .
      Verdict: Jury is still out, but don't end your auction in the morning.
      Further Analysis and Conclusions
      When I sat out to look a this, I thought we would see listings that got 20-25% more. But incredibly, we saw all of the top listings but the Grand Carousel hitting 40-50% higher than the average that comes from Ebay. This is incredible and really makes me rethink how I list used sets. There is a ton of money out there in Legos, as we know, but this just shows how much a good listing makes a big difference in your final price.
      Another thing we can surmise is that a good listing works just as well with an Auction as BIN. Definitely with an Auction you are taking a chance, but BIN generally may sit around a lot longer if you list it for 30-40% more than the BP used price. The BIN listings averaged 45.5% over the BP used price and the auctions averaged 46.55% over the BP used price. So you can get more for your auction (Up to 80% evidently on the smaller star destroyer), but your listing doesn't have to be quite as good to sell with BIN – you just need some luck with a buyer.
      So why was the Grand Carousel much lower than the others? Well, I decided to calculate the BP used price/BP New price to find out where it was at:
      10030 Star Destroyer 57% of new 10143 Death Star 2 49% of new 10196 Grand Carousel 67% of new 10217 Diagon Alley 79% of new 6211 Star Destroyer 46% of new 7781 UCS Batmobile 43% of new Looking at this data, the Diagon Alley and Carousel have used prices that are very high compared to the new price. I think this definitely had an effect on the Grand Carousel. If the used price gets too high, its going to hit the New price ceiling and people will just buy new.
      But why didn't Diagon Alley see the same results? - Well it is a more recent set and cost's a lot less money so I think this shows people are willing to spend a higher percentage on a set that costs less.
      So there is all the data. What conclusions do you all draw from this? What do you think could be done to make this data more conclusive? Put your thoughts in the comments!
      Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      We are in the midst of one of the best clearance times of the year for several retailers, including the two biggest and well known Lego retailers: Target and Walmart (I'm ignoring you TRU because you seem to think that clearance is a 5% discount on a set overpriced by 30%). A lot of people post the great deals they find in the forums. Unfortunately we see a lot of people saying they never find these deals.
      Well, while its true that not every Walmart or Target in every area puts clearance items out, I wanted to go through some clearance tips for both of these retailers as well as show pictures of what to look for just to make sure no one misses anything.
      Walmart
      Generally Walmart does major clearance once in the summer and once at the first of the year after Christmas, just like Target. However, clearance can also be sporadically spread throughout the year depending on the sets that are going EOL and how many are left at a local Walmart. In my experience, the Walmart toy managers have a lot more say so over when they can put things on clearance. Also, they are much worse at stocking and commonly find old sets that are clearanced in the system in the back.
      On top of that, Walmart doesn't stick to a straight schedule for when to clearance items. For instance, they started clearing MF and Super Hero sets in March, but still haven’t started other summer clearance (my Walmart has 100 sets sitting on the shelves that are old and will need to be moved once the new fall sets come out).
      My strategy with Walmart is to check every time I go. I go to Walmart about once a week at least as there are three within close vicinity to me, and 5 in my town. I check every time I go because it only takes a few minutes if I am already there and I don't want to miss anything. If you don't visit Walmart a lot, this becomes tougher. If there is one close to you, I would try every two weeks or so. If there is not, I would watch closely for deals on clearance at Walmart posted on this site and then check at those points.
      Walmart will also tell you over the phone whether they have clearanced sets if you can get to the toy department. Not everyone will go check, but if you get someone in the toy department they will tell you if they know.
      So where do you need to check in Walmart? In my experience, there are 4 places: The Lego isle, a toys-only clearance isle, a store clearance isle, and the ends of an isle.
      When clearance sets are in the Lego isle, they are normally in their usual spots with red tags posted under them on the shelves as shown below:

      Its usually pretty obvious when these are on clearance because of the tags on the actual shelves. Because of this, things are gone fast. When this happens, I always check everywhere in the isle behind all the big sets to make sure that nothing got pushed behind something else. People will hide items and some employees accidentally push something behind another set while marking clearance. I have scored a few sets this way because I was persistent.
      Walmart will sometimes red tag the boxes themselves, but not tag the shelves. In this case, it usually means it was manager-decision clearance because there were too many of an item, or its damaged, etc. For these, make sure the Red Tag with the UPC is on it. Chances are it won't come up in the system if it isn't. Watch the price as the teller rings it up as well. I had a time where I wasn't paying attention and an MF set I was buying didn't have the sticker and the teller rang it up retail.
      If your Walmart uses a “toys-only” clearance isle, it is usually right by the toys, normally the last isle from the door, or an isle close by to the rest of the toys on the edge of another section. This usually never moves so if you go to a new Walmart and find this, it should always be there. In this case, employees throw anything clearance here, meaning most of the time looking in the isle for clearance is not going to find anything. Here is an example:

      In my experience, this isle is extremely messy. It usually has signs a the tops of the isle showing that the items there are clearance. Because this isle is a mess, it unfortunately means you need to go through everything. I have found sets accidentally put behind MegaBlocks and Kinects, I have found them under dress up toys, etc. Its pretty much a rummage sale. The employees will also put anything discounted because of damage here as well. If something looks open – make sure it has all the pieces. Walmart is not above putting a set that is obviously missing pieces back in the isle. Keep your receipts as well as they will take returns on them, but usually only if you have the receipt.
      A lot of older Walmarts don't put clearance in a special toy isle or leave it in the regular isles. They throw all clearance items in two or three isles, normally on the outskirts of the store (but sometimes in the very middle near the front) that have big clearance isle signs. Here is a picture:
      Things are generally terribly kept as half of the items are discounts because of damage so items don't stack or don't fit properly and just lay on top of each other. I usually just shovel through everything. This isle is the easiest thing to miss if you are in an older Walmart. Most people look for the toy clearance isle, but some do have this “everything goes here” clearance isle in the store. Usually there wont be sections or any type of order to it, so make sure you inspect behind everything big.
      I went to my hometown a while back and went to an old Walmart there. I saw nothing in the clearance isle... until I moved a giant boxed dog carrier that was smashed up. I found a Vampyre castle right behind it.
      Some small Walmarts that don't carry a lot of items (the really old and non-super Walmarts) will put clearance on the sides of isles because they don't want to take up a full isle. Usually each sections items has its own section clearance side isle. These will look like this:

      It could be shelves too. These will not be there year round so be vigilant. One of my smaller Walmarts here recently did this – I just thought they didn't ever have clearance. First week I got a 5887 Dino Defense for $69. A month later I got a SW 7964 Frigate for $69. Can't imagine what I missed before that...
      Target
      In my experience, Target is much cleaner about what they do with their clearance. Since they really only have clearance times twice a year, its really not worth checking until the first week of July and the first week in January. There are exceptions to this, but not enough for you to run to Target twice a week.
      Targets generally don't have a store clearance isle. Every section has either its own clearance section, or they clearance items right in the isle (most do this, especially the newer ones because it looks cleaner). This makes it easy because they are right out in the open.
      If they do have a small clearance section, it will either be on the ends of the isles, or it will usually be right in between the sports section and the toys section. Here is a picture of the toy clearance isle:

      Notice how much cleaner it is. You can look behind other items for sets, but chances are you wont find them as most Targets keep things pristine. If you find them inside the actual Lego isle, they should be in the their normal places and look like this:

      Notice how the set has the clearance tag up in the top corner. Luckily, there don't have UPCs because Target puts them in the system for the main UPC. This means if a tag is missing, you don't have to worry. Plus Target has price checkers on every three or so isle ends.
      Target also periodically reduces clearance sets where as some Walmarts will leave them there forever. Every week or so after putting something on clearance, Target will up it by 20%. If they only have a few of the clearance item you find, its probably worth just buying it. But if they have a multitude of them, you can take a chance on them making it farther up the clearance scale. I am currently doing that for.
      Well that's what I have seen – I wanted to share to make sure no one else every missed a clearance sale. What types of clearance have you all noticed?
      Note: Some of these pictures were found on the web as I didn't have examples of all of these in my area.
      Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
       
    • Scissorino
      My ascendance from darkness has been gradual and, in many ways, continues to be so. In my younger days the light shone brightly; a satisfied youth entertained by the simplest yet richest of pleasures. The treasures of enlightenment were mine and there had never been reason to question the integrity of the beacon that burned bright. As I grew, the temptations and pleasures of the world impressed upon me, and what I once knew to be dazzling faded into insignificance. For many years, girlfriends, music, good times and popularity occupied my mind. Most of those pleasures gave way to the necessary, yet equally distracting, responsibilities of adulthood: the mortgage, the job, the house, the wife, and eventually the kids.
      Yet, forming in the womb of responsibility was the seed, the desire; the need for release, the necessity of light relief. Whilst maturity brought reward and satisfaction, there was something missing; something I once knew of: Lego.
      It started with a chance meeting: children swapping collectible minifigures in the playground at the school where I’m a teacher. I took a glance and I liked what I saw. The details of what was glimpsed then do not remain with me, however, the knowledge that that instance was a catalyst is clear.
      Happening upon Series 6 minifigures being sold in WH Smith was to be my second dalliance with my childhood friend. I saw the Roman Soldier on the packaging, and believing (in my naivety) that through the packaging I could feel a shield, I dutifully paid my £1.99. Upon opening I was disappointed to find the surgeon and to discover that what I presumed was a shield was the standard base plate supplied with all collectible minifigures. The fact that my Series 6 Surgeon minifigure now holds a special place in my heart is testament to the fact that this occasion was significant in my journey out of my dark ages. The Roman Soldier still eludes me to this day; however, I’m sure one day he’ll be mine.
      It continued slowly and not without more disappointment: a totally blind purchase of another Series 6 minifigure left me with the rather undesirable Flamenco Dancer – an event which left me feeling disillusioned; maybe the light which had once shone strongly WAS just a childhood thing best left alone when in one’s mid twenties? Then again, maybe not; my two-year-old daughter adored the Flamenco Dancer who can probably be credited with igniting the flame of love within a new heart, which in turn gave me an excuse (needed or not) to pursue my journey to re-enlightenment.
      Then, by a variety of means, I began to build a collection: Sun newspaper giveaways, small ebay purchases, more collectible minifigures. I began to take out my vast assortment of pre-dark age Lego whenever I visited my parents’ house. My brother-in-law began to show signs of emerging too, asking for and receiving Creationary and Lord of the Rings sets for Christmas. The Lego sessions at my parents’ house became family affairs; myself, my daughters, my wife, my brothers, sisters, brothers-in-law, sisters-in-law all on the floor, surrounded by the bricks and pieces that had brought so much joy years before.
      Now, things are slowly getting back to the way things were. My new Lego collection is small (it fits in a shoebox) and real life doesn’t allow much money to spend on it, but I build and I create and when I do there is freedom and relaxation. There’s that old satisfying feeling of following the instructions, enjoying the model, breaking it down and adding the pieces to the pile and then creating again. There’s a knowledge that a lost part of me is now, once again, found.
       
    • Fcbarcelona101
      It was only around a year ago when LEGO finally released the long awaited by many Lord of The Rings theme. With the great success of the books, and more recently the movies, the release of a theme revolving around Middle Earth seemed to be one of the best licensing options available, and we can be grateful LEGO decided to go with it.
      The release of the LOTR theme was no accident. Even though the movies were already close to a decade all, LEGO probably knew that with the release of a new trilogy of the prequel book, The Hobbit, there was still a lot of money to be made and popularity to take advantage of. So, they decided to also release a sort of extension or sub-theme entirely related to the newer Hobbit movies, and those will be the focus of this article.
      As many of you probably know, The Hobbit book was in fact the first of all that related to Middle Earth coming from Tolkien, released way back in 1937. Despite this, it is clear that the LOTR series has garnered a lot more fans and popularity over the years than its predecessor, so we could make the argument that this will be translating into better performance of LOTR sets than Hobbit ones.
       However, there is something I really think we should keep in mind, especially now that only the first of The Hobbit movies has been released. If we take a look at the box office numbers for the whole series, we will see that The Hobbit’s first movie has collected around $1,017,000,000, and that compared to the LOTR movies, it is only surpassed by the most popular of the three, The Return of the King (by about $ 100 million). The other two LOTR movies collected way less than The Hobbit did, and that to me is a very good sign. Taking into account that the first movie usually comes around to set the stage for the whole trilogy, we can be sure that the coming releases will contain a lot of more action and interesting scenes. This will probably translate in better box office numbers, and that usually defines the popularity of the series.
      Don’t get me wrong. I am not saying that The Hobbit LEGO theme will be performing better than the Lord of The Rings, just that we should not be discounting it as an inferior sub-theme. These sets will be getting a lot of attention once they are retired, and even if they end up performing a little less well than LOTR, the figures will probably be fairly similar.
      One last thing before we get into analyzing the first wave of Hobbit sets. In a previous article released on the Evaluation Corner dedicated mostly to the Lord of the Rings, I talked about the similarity I saw between it and the Harry Potter theme that just recently ended. I would recommend that you at least read some of the first paragraphs of that article, since I believe that this theme will follow the same route.
      Let’s now evaluate specific sets:
      - 79010 Goblin King Battle

      My Analysis: This set is the largest and most expensive of the whole Hobbit first wave of sets, and it recreates one of the most interesting scenes from the movie, in my opinion. The set comes with around 840 pieces and 8 minifigs, so in theory it would appear to be a good value for the money, especially considering the Goblin King maxifig.
      The eight minifigs included are all exclusive to this set, with the exception of Gandalf the Grey. Three of those minifigs are goblin variations that will probably not get too much attention, but the other four I do consider them to be pretty special. Most importantly, the set comes with a maxifig of the Goblin King, one that you will for sure never see released again and that already sells for around $14 on eBay. Maxifigs overall have proven to be really popular, and I don’t see this one being the exception.
      The other three are dwarves, Ori, Dori and Nori. They are so far exclusive to this set and necessary for anyone looking to complete the Company of Dwarves, so if they remain exclusive we might see a nice bump to this set in the secondary market. Considering that there are two more movies coming out, I feel that not all three will stay exclusive, but only one of them would be enough.
      The set itself has not been one of the most well received ones by collectors and investors, and constantly sells for way less MSRP on most retail outlets and even less on eBay auctions. Having said that, we have seen similar issues with other sets along the years that in the end have proven to be great investments.
      Value Prediction: Once we have more data about the performance of LOTR sets after retirement we will be able to give more accurate predictions of value, but this set should at the least sell for close to $ 200 by 2015 assuming it retires by the end of this year.

      79003 An Unexpected Gathering

      Comments: This is without a doubt the highlight of the first wave of The Hobbit. One of the most important factors this set has going for it is that it can easily be used both on LOTR and Hobbit collections, as Bag-End plays a decent role in both movies/series. The structure is very unique and has a really nice mix of display and play features, including new elements, nice color scheme and great collection of minifigs. I really don’t think any LOTR/Hobbit collection can be considered complete without having this set.
      The minifigs included are 2 that can be considered common, Gandalf and an exclusive variation of Bilbo, and four characters that at this point are only included in this set: Balin, Dwalin, Bombur and Bofur the dwarves. As it is the case with most of the Hobbit sets, LEGO seems to have made a point of including exclusive dwarf minifigs in order to incentivize the purchase of all the sets in the series, if someone is looking to get the whole company of dwarves and does not want to buy them individually. What this set has that most of the others don’t to add even more value besides the minifigs, is the unique design as well as the significance of the structure in the movies. Plus, coming with a nice mix of new elements will surely help its future value.
      Value Prediction: This is my favorite set of the line, and will in my opinion end up being o the top performers of the whole theme. I see it showing a CAGR of around 25% by the time it has been retired for two years. In my opinion, this could be a conservative estimate if the dwarves end up staying exclusive.

      - 79002 Attack of the Wargs

      Comments: This set is not talked about that much, but I believe that it has the potential to be a really good performer. I find it to be very similar to Attack on Weathertop, with the important difference that this one seems to be better priced than 9472. What I like the most about this set is that recreates one of the scenes that can be considered the climax of the first Hobbit movie, as well as the inclusion of the wargs.
      As it happens with 9472, I think that the minifigs and creatures included in both sets will be responsible for much of the future growth we should be expecting. The wargs are selling for a nice amount of money already on eBay and in the event that they do not reappear in any future sets, something I see very probable, then this set will become the only chance to acquire them. Even more, this set includes one of the main characters of the whole movie, Thorin, that at this point is also exclusive though I do not see how LEGO could keep him from reappearing in the future. The other minifigs include Yazneg (more than likely only included in this set), Bifur, and a couple of hunter orcs.
      Value Prediction: Again, the performance of this set will be closely related to the minifigs in it remaining exclusive and the wargs not being included in a lot of sets in the future. I think it would be safe to say that the set should see a CAGR of around 24 % by the time the set has been retired for 2 years. (Assumes retirement by the end of 2013)

      - 79004 Barrel Escape

      Comments: This set is a Toys R Us and LEGO exclusive, so it is one of the “hardest” ones to find out there, resulting in the positive CAGR while the set is still in production. The trajectory of Toys R Us exclusives has not usually been one of the brightest, with Home One being the poster child for underperformance, but in this case I have the feeling this set will end up performing relatively well. It is hard to know for how long this set will be on the shelves, but considering that is exclusive AND related to the upcoming second Hobbit movie, it may last longer than the other sets in the first wave.
      The set includes five minifigs, with four of them being exclusive to the set. The “common” minifig is Bilbo Baggins, and the exclusives are 2 Mirkwood elves (including the chief), Oin and Gloin the dwarves. These last two, especially Gloin on account of him being Gimli’s father, are probably going to be the most popular of the bunch.
      The set itself is very interesting, and has some features that are not seen in some of the others, including a brighter color scheme.
      Value Prediction: If this set is selling that good while it is still available and has yet to be featured on the movies, then I would argue that it has the possibility to do just as well once it goes EOL. A CAGR of around 22%, the number is currently presenting, would be a good guess after it has been retired for around two years.

      - 79001 Escape From Mirkwood Spiders

      Comments: Another of the “special” sets featuring scenes from a movie that has not yet been released. This is also one of the smallest sets, but in my opinion is also a very unique one. It comes with four minifigs: Legolas, Tauriel, Kili and Fili, all exclusive to the set.
      For the size of the set, it does come with several interesting play features that I think increase its appeal. For example, besides having the minifigs, it comes with a couple of relatively big brick built spiders and some glow in the dark accessories as well. Also, the set does come with several different weapons and “spider web” to catch some of the minifigs. The set itself consists mostly of two small tree structures, but once again I think the main highlight is the pair of spiders.
      Value Prediction: These somewhat small sets a lot of times end up having great CAGR numbers, and I believe that will be the case with Mirkwood Spiders. Considering the exclusive minifigs, especially the two elves that I believe will stay exclusive to the set, and the brick built spiders, I see this set with a CAGR of around 27 % once it has been retired for two years.

      - 79000 Riddles for the Ring

      Comments: The smallest and less impressive set of the bunch is also the cheapest one in this case. This set recreates a very fun scene from the movie, that serves to reintroduce to us the Gollum some hate and some love from the LOTR series. The structure itself is built from around 100 pieces, and it includes only two minifigs, not really bad for the price you pay. The issue I have with this set is that both minifigs are characters we have already seen before in some other sets, so a lot of people will simply not see this set as a real must have.
      Value Prediction: From what I said above, I see this set as being the worst performer of The Hobbit’s first wave. I actually agree with a great review of this set written by Grolim, and see the set with a CAGR of around 12 % by the time it has been retired for two years, that will more than likely become 10% in the longer term.

      ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      As you see, I expect this theme to have an average CAGR in the low 20s by the time the first wave has been gone for around two years, a number that would put it very high on Brickpicker’s theme ranking. These sets hold great value on the minifigs they contain, as pretty much every single set comes with exclusives. It would be naïve to assume that all of the dwarves will remain exclusive only to sets in the first wave when there are still two more movies coming out, but I am sure that at least a couple will only appear on the first wave. Figuring out which ones would be the hard thing.
      To conclude, I would recommend every investor to include several of these sets in their Brickfolio, and once we start seeing the great numbers the first wave of LOTR sets will more than likely provide, I don’t see many people doubting about these sets anymore!
      Thanks for reading.
       
    • OzGadget
      I thought I would share my views on Brickvesting and purchasing Lego in Australia.
      Firstly, a bit of background on me. I enjoy Lego. I played with it as a child and I still play with it. The Duplo that I had as a child I still have and my son plays with it. I have worked my way through the themes of Space, Town, Technic, Creator and most things in between.
      I have over the past few years gotten back into Lego and I have been collecting both current and retired sets. Since the advent of online auctions sites such as eBay, I have been able to buy as an adult, some of the sets that I wanted as a child. The urge to check for a certain set I remember from childhood can strike at any point and thanks to the internet, I can check on the availability and more importantly the cost of such sets.
      As an AFOL (Adult Fan Of Lego), I have collected some sets that I have wanted from years back. Within my house I have sets on display. I even have the odd piece at work. I do not hide my hobby, however as I am about to explain, not being in Northern Hemisphere does pose a number of hurdles with collecting.
      I will point out that I very rarely keep the boxes of any sets. I know that a complete set (with box) is worth a whole heap more than just the pieces and the instruction book. To be honest, I only have one set that is complete by that definition. I do keep all of the instructions from the sets I have.
      (Please note: The following is from my observation and memory. If I make a mistake, please let me know.)
      Within Australia, there are very few retailers that sell the big items. Of late with the introduction of online shopping just taking off with the large department chains and they are slowly selling the bigger items online only as they cannot guarantee that the item will sell in store. Almost all of the department stores, toy stores and even supermarkets sell the smaller sets (that is under $50).
      Another thing that occurs in Australia is that not all sets are available for sale that may have been made available in the Northern Hemisphere. I purchased set 7344, the Dump Truck. I cannot recall this set being released in Australia and I purchased it online from the US.
      Until recently, Lego charged a fee for all purchases made from their website. The prices are AU$ prices and regardless of the exchange rate, the sets are more expensive than say the US or the UK. I purchased the Polizia Lamborghini and from memory, the shipping fee was $30 on a $120 set. Now a days, Lego does not charge a shipping fee for anything over $150 for the order.
      The other issue is that with sites such as eBay, the shipping price for Lego can vary greatly. I have seen $20 sets with $40 shipping. Thanks, but no thanks. A big issue with collecting in Australia is the shipping cost. Some sellers I have purchased from have had very reasonable shipping costs. I have purchased sets from the UK, the US, within Australia, Germany and other overseas locations. For me, the cost of shipping with a box is not worth the cost as most of the shipping to Australia is based on volume and not just weight.
      There are other avenues such as BrickLink to be able to purchase sets, again the shipping costs can vary dependant on the location of the seller however in my experience the costs have been realistic.
      At times I have wished there was an option to be able to take the slowest form of delivery to keep the shipping costs down. Again this is subject to the seller and their method of delivery.
      With respect to Brickvesting, I am new to the concept, even though the concept is not. We have all seen the amazing ride the Lego Millenium Falcon (10179) has taken due to the popularity of both Lego and Star Wars. Don't we all wish we bought a couple of pristine sets when they first came out! It has been intersesting to read the blogs about people selecting undamaged sets and storing them away for the purpose of accruing value to either be sold at a later date or kept to increase in value, the same way as wine collectors do. From my situation, the sort of Brickvesting I would be getting into is the old sets from the early 1980s to 1990s that are starting to come back into vogue. Watch what happens to the Blue 1980s Space Minifig when "The Lego Movie" comes out.
      It does seem the Brickvesting is as much hit and miss as the Lego themes and sets themselves. Whilst "The Hobbit" as a movie was popular, the Lego sets seem to be doing ok. The "Harry Potter" series appears to have waned off due to the movies becoming dated and interest being lost. I cannot say much for the " Dino Riders" set other than I liked the helicopter enough to get it. To me, the Lego Technic range has always been my favourite, I have spent a fair bit on cranes, planes and helicopters. The Soccer and Ice Hockey sets are another example, in my opinon where you would not make a return on any potential investment.
      What I am also interested in seeing the future of is the Lego Minig Series. To me the idea of having a box of packets unopened is a interesting and frustrating dilemma. It is great to know you may have a Mr Gold in the box but without openening the box to open the packets, how are you to know what is inside. The increasing number of series of Minifig sets may have the potential to devalue the overall collection. Unless Lego continues the idea of a "rare" (5000 or less) minifig within the set, the interest in the sets may die off.
      Another item I have noticed with Brickvesting is where do you store these items whislt they accrue in value? For those who have the storage space and the right conditions, half of you issues will be taken care of.
      I know that there are more detailed blogs regarding Brickvesting. I am presenting my view of an interesting aspect of collecting Lego. I hope that people continue to Brickvest as it will continue the sets being available long after they have been retired by Lego.
      With regards to collecting from Australia, I wanted to share some of the issues with pursuing my hobby from a country where the cost of purchasing an item ultimately comes down to how much will it cost to send it to me.
      I am wondering how many others are out there and if you would like to share your experience in buying and collecting Lego?
       
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      Some investors out there have seemingly unlimited capital and look like, at least on this sites forums, that they just throw money around. Most likely that is not the case – everything the successful investors do is still perfectly calculated and planned before hand to make money – and not lose it with wasteful spending.
      For those of you who are scared to get into the investing part of it because of your limited capital, fear not! Anyone who is interested in Investing can get into it and make sure they take all the precautions to try and safely manage their capital.
      First of all, you need to make sure you have budgeted the rest of your monthly expenses around your paycheck accordingly. I won't tell you how to manage your money as it is your money. I wanted to express my way of doing it on a limited budget. Every month, I have a chunk of money that I put directly into a savings account that counts as money that I am not allowed to spend on my monthly expenses, or entertainment, etc. This is money I am saving for a rainy day, retirement, etc. so eventually I will invest portions of this money so it is not just sitting in a back with .025% interest.
      Well, Lego can be one of those investments. So I suggest if you have a piece of your paycheck that you keep out for savings in a separate account (if you don't use a separate account, I would suggest doing so as its usually free and WAY easier) then find a piece of this per month savings that you want to put back and invest into Lego. If you keep your monthly expenses inside a piece of software like Excel, make this a section and give yourself that chunk as a ceiling for the month.
      Now just having something to keep track of your money and a set ceiling for money spent per month doesn't mean anything unless you stick to it. I normally keep all of my Lego receipts and immediately log them in this when I get home. This also really really helps you set your standards high as to what sets you are going to buy. Think if you only had $20 to eat on a week – would you be impulsively buying fast food? Probably not. You would make sure you made your money count. This will be the same for your Lego Investing.
      Another big problem for limited capital investors is one that I experience constantly: I just bought this awesome set for investing, got it here, and I saw it and I want to build it now. Problem is, you spent your investing money on this set and if you build it, you will lose the investment (opening the box loses value) and you have now spent the investing money on entertainment. This is a tough choice most of the time, so I deal with it in a couple of ways. First off, when I receive a set I bought online for investing, I check to make sure its in good shape and then it goes back into the box back into storage. If you leave it out all day, you are going to eventually succumb to temptation. Second, if I do give in, the money I spent on that set immediately is taken out of my other monthly spending money for entertainment, etc. This acts as a really good deterrent to keep me out of that box.
      Now for choosing what sets to buy. No one here can tell you for sure which are the sets that will earn big time money when they finally retire. But, there are plenty of members here that have a boat load of experience on predicting sets values. Articles and reviews tell you everything you need to know. And if you have a question on a set, post in the forums as you will get plenty of opinions on how well a set may do. The best part about the forums is that you normally get a mix of the pessimists and the optimists which means you get both sides of the argument every time. On limited capital, I normally go for the sets that people agree on pretty astoundingly that they will do well. They must have a history in the theme of doing well and are very popular so there is little chance of a failed investment.
      After you have chosen sets to buy, the problem becomes – what can I spend to make sure I am safely and smartly spending money? Well, no one can tell you for sure, but I want to offer an example of what I have come up with that has seemingly worked for me:
      First off, I only buy sets that have been out for 6+ months. This gives us great data, especially on BrickPicker to tell how popular the set is (how many have sold) and what people are willing to pay for it. Second, I determine a price where I feel like even if the set was a dud in the secondary market, I will be able to mostly get my money back. This can become tricky as we don;t know what a set will do, right? First off, if a set fails, chances are its not going above its retail value. So lets start there. Next, you will most likely have to sell it and ship it. The highest fees around are on Ebay which are roughly 11%. If you use Paypal, you are looking at another ~3% (this is off your total sale as Ebay transfers you all of the money then bills you for their fees). Shipping usually is right around 10% of the retail price roughly with a minimum ceiling of $5 to be safe (for small sets that are $10, chances are it won't be $1 to ship). With shipping, it all depends on where its going, but since you have control over that in most sales sites, 10% is a good estimate. This leaves us with 24% off retail. Next I look at the current BrickPicker data for the set New. Once I have that and my 24% off retail estimate, I average them together. Whichever one is lower gets weighted 3/4 of the average as a further precaution. This becomes my suggested buying price (including tax and shipping). Let me show you an example. One of my favorite investments right now is the 7965 Millennium Falcon. I wont go into why this is a good investment in this article, but I feel it is. 7965 costs $140 retail (yes I rounded the penny):
      $140 * .76 = $106.4
      BP price New = $127.45
      Average = (($106.4*3) + $127.45)/4 = $111.66
      I should look to spend no more than $111.66 total for this set.
      Let's do another example:
      9474 LOTR Helm's Deep Retail = $130
      $130 * .76 = $98.8
      BP price New = $105.26
      Average = (($105.26*3) + $105.26)/4= $ 100.42
      I should look to spend no more than $100.42 for this set.
      So what about sets like 10228 Haunted House that never get discounted? Well this can be a problem. Lets take a look at my formula for the Haunted House:
      Retail = $180
      $180 * .76 = $136.8
      BP new is an amazing $213.32
      Average = (($136.8 * 3) + $213.32)/4 = $155.93
      As you can see, on exclusive sets like this that don't see a ton of discounts, this is very rough. In general, this is why it is a suggested formula. I see the suggested price and decide whether I am willing to risk the extra money I might not get out of it if its a dud depending on my thoughts on the set. I think the Haunted House is a serious home run, so I would take my chances.
      Obviously this could be improved in many more ways depending on themes, size of the set, price per piece, etc. I plan on improving it in the future, but for now this gives me a good safe amount I feel I can trust.
      Now another common problem that comes up: Let's say you pull the trigger on a 7965 you get from Walmart.com after discounts at $105. When you receive the item, the box has got some rough points on it. Some don't worry about it and others probably worry about it a little too much. FCBarcelona recently wrote an article debunking how much this affects the value of a set.
      However, as a limited capital investor, I strongly urge you to talk to the retailer. Either get a further discount on the set or have them send you a new one. Yes the pay off may only be a couple of dollars, but when you are investing on a very limited budget, that money counts more than ever. Pus, though it requires a call or an email, it really wont cost you anything most of the time to try and get it replaced or get a damage discount.
      Another thing I see differing opinions on is clearance. Every one here that seen clearance Legos knows how excited you get when you see that mega discount on all these sets. Most of us probably go get a cart and just shove everything into it we can reach. Chances are, items that are clearanced off are always going to meet my investment standard above, but that doesn't mean they are sound investments. I would still make sure you go through the process of searching Brickpicker and other websites for data to make sure this is a sound Lego purchase. A bunch of people may have bought Build-A-Zergs on a whim, but they still overpaid at 70% off. With limited capital you have less chances to take, so don't just purchase something because it is clearance.
      Returns
      Returning items can sometimes be just as important buying them for a limited capital investor. Let's say you have $200 to spend per month on Lego investments. Early in the month, you find a 7965 Falcon on sale and score it for $105. You now have $95 left for the month. Late in the month, Amazon puts the Tower Bridge 10214 down to $195!!! But you already spent your monthly money? This is why you keep the receipt. With a receipt, pretty much every store that carries Lego's will let you return them and get the money back on your credit card or in cash. If you don't have a receipt, many will take it back, but they give you store credit which could encourage you to further spend money and means your capital is continuously tied up until you spend that gift card. Now you can return that Falcon and get that Tower Bridge knowing its a once in a lifetime deal.
      Rewards Dollars
      When you earn rewards points with something like Ebates or the Ebay Bucks Program, or others, most will treat this as free money – which in some ways it is. They count it as money immediately off their investment and then spend accordingly.
      While there is no strict reason again this, as a Limited Capital investor, I like treating them another way. Every dollar I earn in rewards dollars I still use, but count them against my Lego Investor capital for the month. This can seem weird – now you are just going to save more money in your savings account? In truth, it is a safety precaution though. It means you get your normal monthly investments but you have more money on hand. On top of that, this really helps curb your spending. I used to get a $10 rewards gift card to TRU and immediately go buy something for $25 because I said “I'm getting it for $15”. But I may have still overpaid in this instance and used money that I could have saved for later, or kept as investment money.
      This is just another added safety precaution to make sure I get the most out of my Lego investing without taking the risks.
      Conclusion
      Nothing comes without risk – there are levels involved anytime you invest in something, even your 401K. But there are ways to manage and eliminate some of those risks. The above wont help you do that completely, but it should serve as a guide to those of us with very limited capital. It should also encourage investors who are shy about getting into the game that there are safety precautions you can take to make sure you don't end up failing at the end.
      Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
       
    • comicblast
      11. 8083-1: Rebel Trooper Battle Pack
       
      12. 6209-1: Slave I
       
      13. 7153-1: Jango Fett's Slave I
       
      14. 4483-1: AT-AT
       
      15. 7143-1: Jedi Starfighter This article is a continuation of an analysis of the BrickIndex of LEGO Star Wars. The BrickIndex is a handy BrickPicker tool that allows the user to view the overall Top 20 Performing sets from all themes, or a single theme. It helps to decide what sets might be skyrocketing in value, and what you may want to pick up for the future. This is the third segment of analysis of four, the introduction, first, and second parts can be viewed by going to:
      http://www.brickpicker.com/forum/index.php/blog/15-a-teens-perspective-comicblasts-blog/.
       
      11. 8083-1: Rebel Trooper Battle Pack This is the first battle pack in the LEGO Star Wars BrickIndex, and is one of the most recent Star Wars battle packs to do so (9489-1: Endor Rebel Trooper & Imperial Trooper Battle Pack is the most recent). Battle packs have a good reputation for being reliable investments, often doubling in value within 2 years of retirement, so it is no surprise that the 8083 Rebel Trooper Battle Pack is seeing big gains. This is the first Battle Pack to include Rebel Hoth Troopers, which makes it much more sought after than one of the many Clone Trooper Battle Packs. Its counterpart, the 8084-1: Snowtrooper Battle Pack also has fairly unique minifigures, making them both popular, though the 8084 is not in as high demand. After its initial jump in March 2013 to about $16, it has plateaued for 2 months, but most likely will make an increase to $20 by October.
      12. 6209-1: Slave I
      Slave I is one of the most iconic [personal] vehicles of the entire Star Wars saga, right up there with Snowspeeders and Walkers. This set is proof that a remake can still have great gains, since it is the 3rd of four versions of Slave I. 6209 Slave I has a much better design than those from previous versions. One of the reasons why I think that this particular version of Slave I is appreciating better than the most recent version (8097) is because the design and structure of both ships are very similar, but commanded a price tag over $25 less than that of the 8071, which made it more economically reasonable. Now that the prices are nearly the same, I think that it will begin to even out and plateau.
      13. 7153-1: Jango Fett's Slave I
      This is the most valuable Slave at $224.93, a stunning value for a 360 piece set.There was a small dip in value in December 2012, which is surprising, considering that usually prices go up during this time, but seasoned sellers usually sell during this time, which could be why there was a dip. After the initial drop it bounced right back up to be nearly the same value as it had in November, and has stayed constantly like that ever since. I don’t expect a whole lot of movement in this set, but there is still a fair amount of NISB 7153 being sold, with between 5 and 15 sold per month.
      15. 4483-1: AT-AT
      Another surprisingly old set to be in the Top 20 list, at 10 years since it was first produced. It made a huge jump in value in the month of April 2013, up $50 from its former $220, but I don’t expect this set to move up anymore than this because the most recent AT-AT [8129] is cheaper than this version (though there are always people who are completists and “have” to have every Star Wars set). There is still a good amount of these set sold with about 5 per month. The AT-AT is one of the greatest sets LEGO has ever made in my opinion, so I wouldn’t hesitate to grab a used one for a decent price!!
      16. 7143-1: Jedi Starfighter Another really old set here, but a very recognizable one, at that! This set has had huge gains over the past few months, starting in December 2012 at $39.47 and peaking in April 2013 at $53.67! Jedi Starfighters are very popular sets, and at almost any given point, TLG will have at least one of them in production, the current one being 9498 Saesee Tiin’s Jedi Starfighter including an unprecidented 2 Jedi minifigures, and one protocol droid. I expect that this set will continue to climb slightly, hitting the mid-$60 mark by the holidays before a steady decline back to about $45. Don’t forget to read segments 1/4, and 2/4 by going to my blog page, and stay tuned for the last, but not least section: 4/4!!
      Thanks for reading!
       
    • Fcbarcelona101
      I think we all know that purchasing sets directly from LEGO S@H or actual LEGO stores is usually not the best choice when it comes to LEGO investing. It is a somewhat rare event when LEGO really discounts a set or a group of sets enough to make it worthwhile when taking into consideration that sites like Amazon, Walmart and even Toys R Us constantly run promotions that put sets well below 20%, the typical maximum discount offered by LEGO (with some exceptions). There is, however, one thing investors need to take into consideration: LEGO promotional items.
      You have seen them in different shapes and form: Han Solo Hoth, TC-14, Hot Dog Cart, Friends Ice Cream stand and many others. LEGO is fond of offering exclusive polybags and minifigures in an effort to provide an incentive for people to purchase in their stores while avoiding having to discount their own merchandise. Most often than not, the products offered in this manner are completely exclusive and impossible to get other than on the specific period they were offered, and may require a specific amount per order to get them.
      The value of this promotional items varies a lot, but I think it is safe to say that the majority hover between $ 13 to $ 20 in the secondary market. Some may go for much more as soon as they are released, while some may grow in value over time just as any other LEGO set. What I wanted to point out, even if it is obvious, in this article is that this promotional items can be a very valuable resource for LEGO investors looking to buy items in the LEGO store or S@H, especially those products that are exclusive like the Orc Forge, Orthanc, etc.
      The periods when this promotional items are offered can be a way for investors to acquire "discounted" sets that would otherwise have to be purchased at retail. Let's take the soon to be retired and much talked about Orc Forge as an example of what I mean.
      MSRP: $ 39.99
      Target Exclusive
      This is one particular set that very rarely saw a discount of any kind over its MSRP. Being a Target exclusive pretty much guaranteed that the demand for this set was high enough for it to sell pretty well at retail, as well as over it on secondary market outlets like eBay and Bricklink. So, was it impossible to get this item discounted? Of course not. If you remember, Target had a pretty decent sale a few months ago where they discounted, if I remember correctly, 20% of your $100 order. Let's examine an scenario where an investor purchase 3 of them during that sale: (taxes are omitted for simplicity purposes)

      So you end up purchasing each set for around $ 32. Now, let's say the same investor was short of money and had to wait a complete month to reset his/her investment budget. This investor thinks the Orc Forge will be a huge hit, and would love to own at least 3 more sets before they retire, well, bad news, Target has the set back to full retail and no sale to take advantage of. The investor decides to go to the local LEGO store and at least get some VIP points in the process. Surprisingly, the current promotion offers a Jor-El exclusive minifig on $75+ orders. Our friend decides to purchase only 2 more sets, and this is how things turn out:

      In this scenario, his average price per set is once again around $ 32. The investor was able to purchase less sets for basically the same amount once he decided to sell his Jor-El promo minifig on eBay or Bricklink for $ 15. Had he purchase three as originally planned, the average price paid at the LEGO store would have been over $ 32, but considering the set is rarely discounted, even $5 below MSRP is a pretty good deal.
      Selling these promotional items as soon as possible will guarantee you better profits than waiting a couple days. While the initial scarcity level in the market will push the price of your item higher, in a couple of days the flood of these will push it back down. If this is the case, then holding onto it for a few months can also be a choice you would want to consider.
      I know the content of this article may seem very basic and obvious to the big majority of you in this page, but I do hope that some of the new members and overall new to the LEGO investing world members consider the value of the promotional items LEGO often offers every month. They can really help get that exclusive set the "discount" you would rarely see somewhere else.
      Thanks for reading.


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