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    • adewar
      Now that summer is upon us, most collectors’ attention is squarely focused on the great summer releases and summer clearance sales that have come our way. However, I always find that as the days get hotter and hotter I begin to long more and more for the cooler days of fall and winter and especially the holidays – that magical time of year filled with simple joys, sitting by a crackling fire as the first snow falls, visiting grandma and grandpa’s house, skating on a frozen pond, and of course opening presents on Christmas morning. The LEGO Group has sought to capture those special, nostalgic moments with its seasonal “Winter Village” line. And they do an incredible job of it. However, do these wonderful niche sets hold more than just nostalgic value? Do these sets make for miraculous returns or are they really just lumps of coal? Let’s take a closer look at this subtheme and find out.
      First introduced in 2009 with the launch of the Winter Toy Shop (10199), one new set has been added to the line each holiday season and (starting with the 2011 season) one set has been retired each season as well. Given their seasonal nature, these sets are only available from October through December of each year and sold exclusively through LEGO.com and LEGO Stores. The trend that has emerged thus far is for each set in the line to be available for three seasons, and as mentioned, only three months each season. That’s only 9 months of shelf time for any given set! These sets have now become so hotly anticipated that often times they have sold out long before December.
      Let’s take a look at the complete line-up and see how each set has fared.

      The sets that have gone EOL, Toy Shop and Bakery, have experienced very strong returns for investors. Will this trend continue as the Post Office and (perhaps the best of the current line-up), the Cottage, go EOL as well? So far, the theme’s short history seems to bode well for future returns.
      All of the sets in this line have many of the same qualities of the LEGO fan-favorite modular buildings, but at more affordable prices. While the Winter Village sets do not physically connect to one another like the modular buildings, they all go together well to create an ever expanding winter scene. They have the same “you can’t have only one” quality that the modular buildings possess. Let’s look at each set in the series to see what sets them apart.
      Toy Shop (10199)

      The first set in the series, simply labeled ‘Winter Toy Shop’, featured a grand Christmas tree complete with presents, carolers, a snowman, and of course, a two level toy shop complete on three sides and open in the back (a key difference from the modular sets). Obviously the focus on the launch set was squarely on Christmas. I love the variety of minifigures and the nice touches on the front of the Toy Shop including a wreath, bicolored awning, windows displaying toys, and the light brick on the second story. The set also includes many great micro-builds in the form of the various gifts and the snowman. The Toy Shop was very popular upon release and with so much charm, it is clear why. Its return the following year, with updated packaging, was a welcome sight.
      LEGO SHOP@HOME Description:
      The holidays are coming, and that means a busy time in the toy maker's workshop!
      This scene from a winter wonderland includes a charming shop filled with tools, toys and even a light-up tower window. Outside, minifigures sing carols by the bench and lamp post, ski on the snow drifts, build a snowman and play with snowballs, and decorate the giant Christmas tree with a star, lights and gift-wrapped presents around the base. The Winter Toy shop features hard-to-find elements including a transparent yellow star, transparent globe elements to create a vintage lamp, dark tan tiles, Power Functions Light Brick, new black 1x2x3 windows and a new caroler minifigure face.
      Features include:
      •Features a toy shop filled with tools and toys and a light up tower window
      •Includes 7 minifigures, cat, snowman, jack-in-the-box, stuffed animal, toy train, robot and toy car
      •Includes Light Brick for light effects inside the toy shop
      •Winter Toy shop measures 7.5" long x 6.7" high x 3.1" wide
      •815 pieces
      Analysis:
      The Toy Shop is a beautiful set and I simply love it. If you were able to purchase one at retail you got a great value for $59.99. 7.4 cents per piece with seven minifigures is an excellent deal. However, at its current valuation of $170 I think it has just about run its course and will likely see its peak during holiday 2013. It’s time to start thinking about selling this set, not buying it. Now let’s turn to the second Winter Village set to go EOL, the Bakery.
      The Bakery (10216)

      The second set on the list and last seen during the 2012 holiday season is the Bakery. Available from holiday 2010 to holiday 2012, this set continued the three year shelf life observed with the Toy Shop. This set featured a frozen pond with ice skaters, a Christmas tree logging truck and stand along with another great retail addition in the form of a Bakery. I love the nice variety of minifigures, the wonderfully done frozen pond, and detailed store frontage complete with yet another light brick which is used this time to fire up the baker’s breads and pastries. I especially love the minifigure, or I should say half minifigure, that is buried in a snow hill. Details like that really continue the charm of the series.
      LEGO SHOP@HOME Description:
      Return to yesteryear with this festive holiday scene!
      It's a winter wonderland in this snow-covered little town! A special-delivery evergreen, all ready for decorating, arrives at the tree-seller's stand by horse-drawn cart, while ice skaters frolic on the frozen pond with colorful lights and a curious owl perched overhead. Just look out for the freshly-shoveled snow piles - one skater has already tumbled in head-first! At the bakery nearby, the friendly baker prepares delicious holiday treats in his oven and rings up sales at the cash register. Push the glowing LEGO Power Functions brick to fill the building with warm interior light! Includes 7 ½ minifigures, snow owl, horse and lots of winter accessories.
      · Includes 7 ½ minifigures as well as a snow owl and horse!
      · Features LEGO Power Functions light-up brick which lights the interior of the bakery when you push it!
      · Includes lots of fun winter accessories like a dark blue minifigure hood with new fur print!
      · Prepare holiday treats and ring up sales at the cash register!
      · Skate on the frozen pond made of 8x8 transparent blue plates!
      · Interesting elements include a camera, tan baguettes, croissants, green apple, 8x8 transparent blue plates, medium blue tiles and even a new 'caramel' color for several brick and arch elements outside the bakery!
      · Features an evergreen tree for decorating, tree seller's stand and even a horse-drawn cart!
      · Bakery measures 7" (18 cm) wide!
      · Completed model (depending on space allocated between the individual parts) measures 16" (40 cm) wide, 12" (30 cm) deep and 7" (18 cm) high!
      · Combine with other Winter Village items, like 10222 Winter Village Post Office or 10229 Winter Village Cottage!
      Analysis:
      The Winter Village Bakery set doubled in price after only a few months into its retirement. This set has certainly been a great buy for investors who were able to grab them before they were sold out. The Bakery maintains the same great qualities that the Toy Shop possessed and offers a lot of the same trademark elements that made that set such a hit. When available at retail, the set offered a great value for $54.99. At 8.0 cents per piece and 7 and a half minifigures, this set was again a real bargain. At over $100, this set should still have room to run, but I wouldn’t be inclined to chase it. I expect it may top out somewhere around $150. Investors struck gold twice with this subtheme. Will the trend continue as current sets go EOL? Will the next set in the line-up, the Post Office, return again for the 2013 holiday season?
      Post Office (10222)

      The third Winter Village entry is the Post Office. Introduced in 2011, the Post Office has now been available for two holiday seasons. Those like me who missed it the first two times around are hoping it makes a third and final appearance in 2013. It is currently listed on LEGO shop@home as retired. Hopefully that is only due to the fact that we are not in the holiday time frame yet and not a permanent retirement.
      The Post Office is another great set in the series, but probably its weakest entry. When I think of all the great things about the holidays, my fondest memories of Christmas don’t include a post office. Ok I guess every village needs a post office to mail letters to Santa, but for a third winter entry the choice of a post office seems a bit odd to me. With that said, TLG did about the best job they could with the subject matter.
      The set features a vintage looking mail truck overflowing with gifts, a gazebo for the Christmas two man band to play under, and a double roofed post office with bay window. The windows look fantastic forming a nice curved store front. LEGO pieces don’t naturally lend themselves to forming curves, so I love seeing interesting designs that accomplish this feat in novel ways. The roofs are a nice dark green color with white touches of snow. This is a welcome departure from earlier entries that featured solid white, snow covered roofs, as it adds some variety and color to the scene. The bright red mail truck and mailboxes add great spots of color to the scene as well. Aside from the checkerboard floor and the fireplace, there is not much of interest going on inside the post office. Then again, it’s a post office – what can really be done to spice up the inside of a post office?
      LEGO SHOP@HOME Description:
      Deliver sacks full of holiday greetings and gifts in the cozy Winter Village Post Office!
      Continuing the winter scene series, the Winter Village Post Office is the perfect snow-covered setting. In the cozy post office, the worker is hard at work sorting all the mail into containers and sacks, while upstairs, there's just time for the postman to take a break before setting off in the traditional post car with all the letters and gifts. From the pavilion outside, musicians fill the air with music, while children take in the wintry atmosphere by the park bench before throwing snowballs at each other - the musicians had better get ready to duck!
      · Includes 7 minifigures: female post office worker, male postman, female, 2 kids and 2 musicians and a dog!
      · Post office features dark-green split roof with snow, fireplace, light brick, table, coffee mug, and lamppost and mailboxes outside!
      · Also features evergreen tree and assorted minifigure accessories
      · Combine with other Winter Village items, like 10216 Winter Village Bakery or 10229 Winter Village Cottage!
      Analysis:
      TLG again continues the ‘7 minifigures + light brick’ formula, and again increases the price per piece by another half cent to 8.5 cents per piece, but that is still a great bargain and well below the 10 cent per piece level that most people look to beat. It is not my favorite in the series, but I still highly recommend it. As mentioned before, it is currently labeled ‘retired’ on LEGO shop@home, but it seems very likely to make a return in 2013 simply because both the Toy Shop and the Bakery were both available for three seasons, why stop that trend now? While this one may not have seen the same demand as previous entries I would expect that it would be strong enough to warrant one last return. So, assuming it does return, buy these sets as soon as they come back in 2013. There is no telling how long they will last before they are sold out for the last time. Don’t wait around hoping for a February clearance on these sets. Finally, we turn to my personal favorite and the largest in the line-up, the Winter Village Cottage.
      Cottage (10229)

      Good news! The best and biggest Winter Village set is still available. It is the Cottage and it is amazing. It is 1,490 pieces of pure holiday joy. That is nearly double the piece count of all of the previous entries. There are 8 minifigures included this time, along with a light brick – I think TLG is pretty much wedded to including a light brick in each of these sets by now. That is fine with me, because I love light bricks. Perhaps we’ll get some sound bricks with holiday jingles in the future? One can hope. The set includes some great mini-builds including an igloo, grandpa’s comfy chair, a chainsaw, Christmas tree, and a child’s bed among others. There is also a great vintage snowplow/flat bed truck and workshop.
      The best aspect of this set and what sets it above the other Winter Village sets is how polished and complete the cottage is both inside and out. It is still a three sided building, open in the back like the others, but it offers much more depth than the other sets. It feels more like a fully realized building like the modulars and less like a simple façade. The flooring is nicely patterned. The lofted child’s room is colorful and fits in nicely. The main room is finished well with a toasty fireplace and vaulted ceiling. Altogether it is a very comprehensive, well designed set that no winter scene should be without. The Cottage is a definite ‘must have’ for any Winter Village collector.
      LEGO SHOP@HOME Description:
      Build the perfect holiday home with the LEGO Creator Winter Village Cottage, which continues the Winter series and includes a Christmas tree, a fireplace with a light brick, an igloo, a sled and a snowplow. Seat Grandpa snugly by the fireplace with his newspaper as you help Dad put up the tree, then bake a feast in the kitchen with Mom. When it's time to stock up the storage shed with firewood, bring the kids for a ride with Dad on the sled and watch him cut the wood with his chainsaw deep in the forest. When the snow gets really deep, clear the road with the snowplow, take all of the kids skiing or build an igloo to play in. There's no cozier place to spend long, frosty nights!
      Includes eight minifigures: Mom, Dad, Grandma, Grandpa, three children and a snowplow driver with assorted accessories Features a cottage, a storage shed, an igloo, a streetlamp, a sled and a snowplow Accessories include a kitten, an owl, a fireplace with a LEGO light brick function, a chandelier, a Christmas tree, a wreath, gifts, an armchair, kitchen appliances and a bed Storage shed features tools and firewood elements Igloo features a fireplace and a removable roof Rare elements and colors included Detach the snowplow to store it in the back of the truck Make the fireplace glow with the LEGO light brick Decorate the cottage Fetch firewood with the sled Drive the snowplow Cottage measures 5.5"L x 9.8"W x 6.7"H Storage shed measures 2.7"L x 2.7"W x 4.3"H Igloo measures 2.7"L x 2.7"W x 2.7"H Snowplow measures 7"L (with plow attached) x 2.3"W x 2.7"H 1,490 pieces Analysis:
      The Cottage is the real standout of this series and definitely the one to stock up on. For 99.99 you get the best set in the line-up with the lowest price per piece at less than 7 cents per piece! So far we have gotten essentially three retail establishments, but this is the first residence. Any collector building a winter scene can do without a bakery or a post office, but they will definitely want, dare I say need, to have this set included. This set is a 10 all the way. I absolutely love it and will be looking to add them to my collection in 2013 and 2014. The only thing that could derail this great investment is if it becomes so popular that TLG brings it back year after year after year. This is a 2012 release, so there is probably not a great urgency to hoard these right away, but definitely don’t forget about them come 2014.
      Concluding remarks:
      Ok, so by now we have a very nice winter scene, but you know what would really complete it, something that would really bring it all together, perhaps even encircle it with a nicely defined perimeter? I know! A train! If only TLG would come out with a holiday train. Wait! They already have and for a mere $450 it can be yours! Long before the release of all these wonderful Winter Village sets, TLG released the 2006 Holiday Train (10173) set, available for a single holiday season. Although not officially part of the Winter Village subtheme, perhaps it will lend some insight as to the longer term appreciation potential of these Winter Village sets. Now I grant you, the Holiday Train is well, … a train, not a building, so the comparison may be somewhat ill-fitting. Also, it was only available for a single holiday season, not three. With that said, here is a summary of the set:

      The Holiday Train has more than quadrupled in value, while the Toy Shop in its much shorter life has nearly tripled in value. On the other hand, the Toy Shop boasts a stronger CAGR at 29% than the Holiday Train’s 25%. I doubt that the Toy Shop will quite reach the levels seen with the Holiday Train due to the appeal of trains in general and the train’s severely limited window of availability, but the Toy Shop’s current trend line is still strong and it is up 50% in just the last 6 months. The Toy Shop may have more room to run, but I expect it will level off before hitting quadruple returns, perhaps peaking as early as the 2013 holiday season. The Bakery has shown very strong recent gains, climbing over 80% in the last 6 months, so it looks as though holding it for at least one more year may be wise. Those investors fortunate enough to have Toy Shops stashed away may want to consider selling them this upcoming holiday season 2013 and rolling those funds into the (presumably) returning and the retiring Post Office. Those with Bakeries may want to hold them one more year and roll those funds into Cottage purchases come 2014.
      If it wasn’t already obvious, I absolutely love these sets and I love their investment potential. All of the sets in this line are wonderfully inspired and crafted with great detail. They are filled with great playability, but also make for wonderful displays that any LEGO or even non-LEGO fan will appreciate and admire. These sets are sure to inspire a great feeling of nostalgia for adults, reminding them of the simple joys that the holidays bring, while at the same time delighting the children of the home with the wonderful play features throughout. Definitely pick up the oldest available sets each year, perhaps even a year early to ensure that you don’t miss out. Hopefully the predictable annual release and annual retirement trend will continue. However, as any Fire Brigade, Death Star, or Minecraft owner will tell you, not much in the world of LEGO is predictable. Even though it is summer time I wish you all Happy Holidays and Happy Investing!
      Update:
      The new 2013 Winter Village entry has recently been announced, the Winter Village Market. This upcoming set is on par with the Cottage in size and price at 1,261 pieces (9 minifigures) and an MSRP of $99.99. This new set looks outstanding for one reason in particular, the carousel. The set features a working carousel than is operated by turning a crank. Not only does the carousel spin, but the horses teeter back and forth and feature unique printing as well. Besides the carousel there are a few stands that are not all that exciting except for the fact that they feature some rare dark blue arches. Surprisingly absent this time around is a light brick. However, the play features of the carousel more than makes up for the lack of a light brick.
      I admit when I first saw the images of this set I was a little disappointed that it wasn’t another building and the various booths didn’t do much for me, but once I saw the developer’s video and saw how awesome the carousel was I was sold. I think this is going to be another must have set in the Winter Village subtheme due to the uniqueness of the carousel. It should provide a great focal point for enthusiast’s winter scenes.
      On a disappointing note, I am now doubtful that the Post Office will return due to the fact that the LEGO.com description of the Market (below) only mentions the Cottage. Also, as previously mentioned, LEGO.com lists the set as ‘retired’ as opposed to ‘sold out’ which already cast some doubt on its return. It looks like TLG may continue to release one new seasonal set a year, but only keep two current at a time. If that is the case then investors may want to start adding the Cottage to their collections this season.
      Market (10235)

      LEGO SHOP@HOME Description:
      Collect and create a fun festive scene with the Winter Village Market!
      Bring home the holiday spirit with the Winter Village Market, continuing the popular LEGO® Winter Village Series. Turn the handle and take a ride on the rocking horse as the carousel spins! Visit the carnival booth. Fill up on holiday and fair favorites including a pie, pretzel and croissant at the baker’s stand, chicken and sausage at the grill stand or sweet treats at the candy shop. Celebrate a holiday season full of traditions and building with the Winter Village Market! Includes 9 minifigures with accessories: 3 females, 2 males and 4 children.
      • Includes 9 minifigures with accessories: 3 females, 2 males and 4 children
      • Features functioning carousel and operator’s booth with moving bucket challenge, baker’s stand, grill stand, candy stand, 2 streetlamps, 3 trees, a bench and 3 tables
      • Accessories include cups, teddy bear, a cat, scarf, purse and lots of food elements
      • Carousel horses feature new ornamental headwear design
      • Turn the handle to make the carousel rotate
      • Take a ride on the carousel
      • Watch the carousel horses really rock!
      • Fill up on holiday treats at the bakery, grill and candy stands!
      • Carousel and operator’s booth measure 7" (19cm) high, 10" (25cm) wide and 6" (16cm) deep
      • Booths measure over 3" (9cm) high, 3" (8cm) wide and 1" (4cm) deep
      • Combine with 10229 Winter Village Cottage for an even bigger winter scene!
       
    • MartinP
      Please read my other article about the "Magic Number". Here is a link: http://www.brickpicker.com/forum/index.php/blog/11/entry-237-the-magic-number-when-the-growth-stops/
      To find when a Lego set will potentially stop growing in value. You can use this system to determine under which category the set falls under. You can use the four variables explained in the other article to determine when a set might hit the magic number. To find what category a set falls under, the set must be graded on a scale of one to ten in each of the categories.
      How old the set is: Use when the set was released as the starting point.
      0-6 months 7-12 months 1-2 years 3-5 years 6-8 years 9-10 years 11-15 years 16-20 years 21-30 years 31+ years. How desirable the set is: This category is very hard to determine. Use your own opinion on the set to determine this.
      Very popular Popular Great Good Decent Bad Worse Worst Really bad Undesirable How many sets are available to be sold: See how many sets are available to be sold on eBay.
      81+ 71-80 61-70 51-60 41-50 31-40 21-30 11-20 6-10 0-5 How many sets were produced: See how long the set was available on the primary market
      5+ years 4 years 3 years 2 years 1.5 years 1 year 6-11 months 4-6 months 2-3 months 1 month After seeing what category the set falls under for each section, add up the numbers. When you get your final result, see where it is in this scale. The totals will vary from 4-40.
      4-10: The set still has growth in the future. The set will stop growing in value in the far future. 11-15: The set has a good amount of growth left for the future. The set will stop growing in value in the distant future. 16-20: The set has a decent amount of growth left in the future. The set will stop growing in value soon in the future. 21-25: The set has some growth left, but not a lot for the future. The set will stop growing in value in the near future. 26-30: The set has a small amount of growth left for the future. The set has a very small chance at recahing the "Magic Number", but it is possible. Other than that, the set is close to reaching the point when the growth will stop. 31-35: The set has a very little amount of growth left for the future. Some sets have reached the "Magic Number" already, but some have not. Other then that, the set is extremely close to reaching the point when growth will stop. 36-40: The set is near or at the "Magic Number". Very little growth will happen beyond this point, but it is still possible. I will try this method out on one sets. The first will be the 10179 Millennium Falcon.
      How old is the set: 4: 3-5 years How desirable is the set: 2: Popular How many sets are available to be sold: 8: 11-20 How many sets were produced: 4: 2 years After adding all the numbers up, the set has a score of 18. That is about halfway through the scale. This means the set has a decent amount of growth left in the future.
      This method may help in determining when a Lego set will stop growing in value, but it does not always work. There are other factors that cannot be calculated in all of this. For example, a set may be so expensive that no one will pay above a certain amount to get the set, thus limiting the potential growth of the set. Eventhough a set may appear to stop growing in value it still can. Hopefully, this article has helped anyone trying to find when a set will stop growing in value.
      Thanks for reading.
       
    • Scissorino
      The last few weeks have been perhaps the most difficult in my life. My sister and brother-in-law went through a harrowing experience; one I’d never wish on anyone (my avatar gives some clues as to part of their troubles). They weathered the storm like true superheroes and I wanted to give them a gift that really meant something. What was that gift? LEGO, of course.
      Those close to me know that if I give LEGO as a gift it comes straight from the heart, and if you’ve read my last blog post you’ll know that my brother-in-law is an AFOL too (Creationary and ‘Escape from Mirkwood Spiders’ were amongst his Christmas presents last year). What then to give? How to put my sympathy into bricks? Easy. Superman and Wonder woman minifigures.
      Being constantly on the ball, and knowing exactly which shops in my town have which sets and what price, I knew that Sainsbury’s had ‘Superman Vs. Power Armour Lex’ on sale at £14.99. Within minutes of deciding what to get them I was standing in the aisle with the set in my hands. I was also looking at a price tag of £9.99! I built a small base for them to stand on (7-wide so they could ‘hold hands’, in so far as minifigures can do that, and have 1 stud at either side) and when presented with the gift they were delighted. We later made a hamper of gifts for them into which I added the rest of the set (nearly kept it myself though!) – not sure if he’s built it yet.
      Now, back to Sainsbury’s; I contemplated buying another set, either as an investment or to keep but I didn’t and I regret it. I’m sure could have made money on it, although as yet, I’m no expert. I also thought about buying the blue suitcase as a gift for £9.99, but didn’t. My point is not about investing – there are blogs on here who make that point with much more experience than I have – my point is that supermarkets have sales.
      In order to score good bargains at supermarkets you must check regularly. Recently ASDA had two small sets at half price for less than a week –now they’re full price again. I got the ‘Creator Small Cottage’ at Sainsbury’s for half price, but they didn’t last long. AFOL friends post great deals at Tesco in their local stores which aren’t available country-wide (this was the same case when my Sainsbury’s had a sale). A local department store had 25% off Series 7 minifigures and I predicted it would roll out to the other series, and they did.
      My advice (teaching grandmas to suck eggs) is to be vigilant and buy whilst you have the chance!
      P.S. one good turn deserves another; my sister and brother-and-law bought me ‘Creator Blue Roadster’ the other week when I went to give blood for the first time. Now, that’s an innovative way of investing.
       
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      On Ebay, when you are going to sell something, Ebay really pushes the “use free shipping to attract more bidders” motto. I know that I waffle back and forth every single time I go to sell an item in an auction style listing because I can't figure out whether I want to do this or not. There are pros and cons to every part of it and a lot of factors you have no control over.
      So I decided to do an article for my own benefit, as well as anyone else who decides to draw conclusions from this. This blog article is about the pros and cons of using free shipping in auction style listings along with some direct analysis from Ebay.
      Pros
      Free Shipping Logo: When you list something with free shipping, it puts a little logo on the side of your item that says “Free Shipping”. This definitely stands out more than not having one there and does attract the eyes a lot. While I think this is a plus, I don't think it is anything huge. I would venture to say most buyers will care more about the price and the actual item contents more than whether there is free shipping or not, at least with Lego sets. But I think there is definitely something to be said for having an extra little bit of color on the listing so that it doesn't slide in with all the monotony when someone is searching for a set. Buyer can compute the price easily: This seems really stupid to think about, but can definitely make a difference when someone is bidding, especially in those late auction situations where they are trying to snipe, or outbid the person who just sniped them. If you offer calculated shipping, then your shipping may be something like $15.27. If the auction price is currently $98.39, then the people looking at your auction have to do some math. Now, this is isn't terribly difficult math, but in this day and age with calculators, a lot of people can't compute that in their head, especially in the stress of an auction about to end. Free shipping is by far the easiest solution to this because the price is the exact price of the auction itself. It's like wanting to know the time and looking at a digital clock instead of one with hands. Attract Bidders that might not be attracted at the real shipping price: This can sometimes be a double edged sword, but if someone doesn't like how much your shipping cost is to them, they may not even consider your item. If they don't bid, that's less bids in general. Sure, they could buy it and then you are out the fortune to ship it to them. At the same time, they could invoke a bidding war with someone who lives next to you. That person easily outbids them and you walk across the street and profit big time. Even further, I think even if the final price is right, people don't trust auctions that show $50 for the shipping price, even if it is correct and calculated to their location. Think about what matters to you when you shop on Ebay: I generally do like auctions with free shipping a little bit more, especially if they are by sellers that live quite a ways away or especially an international item I can't get as cheap here. Won't be filtered in Ebay Searches: Ebay has search options so that buyers can only search for items with free shipping. I don't ever do this, but there are definitely some who do meaning that if you aren't offering free shipping, those people are filtering your items out. Since there isn't an option in Ebay to search for “not-free shipping”, this only hurts those who don't offer it. Ebay Ratings: If you sell on Ebay, you know Ebay has a 5 star rating system for several things including “Item Description”, “Shipping Time”, “Shipping Price”, “Communication”. Obviously, just like feedback, these affect people's decisions to buy your items. But Ebay also keeps track of these. If you go below a certain level in any category, Ebay will lower your listings when people search by “Best Match”. Currently, if you list your item with free shipping, Ebay automatically gives you 5 stars in the shipping price category. You may not think this is a big deal, but let's say someone buys your item and calculated shipping is $50. They go to rate you and feel that was too much. 1 star rating is given and you suffer for it. Cons
      It's hard to computer your bottom line until you sell it: If you use free shipping in an auction, until someone wins the auction you have no idea where you are shipping it. This can be especially bad with big sets. If you live on the east coast and the top bidder is on the west coast, you may be paying out of your mind shipping prices for the item. This could cut big time into your profits. Ebay gives items higher priority if they have free shipping: Ebay really pushes free shipping and items with it get higher priority in “Best Match” searches, which is the default sorting technique when you search for items. Your item will most likely never be at the top if you don't have free shipping. Less Bids: You will definitely have less people see your listing because there will be some immediately put off by your shipping price, especially if it is calculated and they live far from you. Fixed price can sometimes not be too bad, but your item can still be filtered out if people search for items without free shipping. This means less bids and less possible bidding wars. So no discussion is fully complete without a little bit of real statistics and analysis. I decided to find a few sets I could search for on Ebay and average out prices to see if you really gained much price wise from free shipping. Unfortunately there isn't a built in tool to average listings so I had to do this by hand. Here were my criteria for the listings:
      Set must be new – I want a control as we wont have to worry as much about how the set was listed with a New auction. If it's new, it's sealed and all that really matters is box condition and whether its open. Set must not have any obvious problems with box condition – I tried to filter these out as outliers. Auctions only. Set must not come with anything extra or be missing anything. Set must have at least 50 listings that sold in the past 3 months. Set must have at least 5 free shipping auctions. Must be retired Must be different sizes than other chosen sets This proved to be really hard. I thought of several really good sets to do this with, but found there were some where no one really offered free shipping. There were also several that didn't have enough listings in general. I finally found three sets that matched my criteria. Since I am taking a lot of data, this is a small sample size, but it should at least point us in the right direction.
      My sets were:
      10212 Imperial Shuttle 4195 Queen Anne's Revenge 9465 The Zombies This gives us three different sized sets to compare with.
      Here is what I found:
      10212 Imperial Shuttle
      Number of listings: 46 w/o and 10 with
      Average auction price w/o free shipping = $342.38
      Shipping Average = $19.33
      Total Cost = $361.70
      Average auction price with free shipping = $369.25
      Percent difference with free shipping = 2.1%
      4195 Queen Anne's Revenge
      Number of listings: 34 w/o and 22 with
      Average auction price w/o free shipping = $194.50
      Shipping Average = $16.22
      Total Cost = $210.72
      Average auction price with free shipping = $198.36
      Percent difference with free shipping = -6%
      9465 The Zombies
      Number of listings: 36 w/o and 7 with
      Average auction price w/o free shipping = $124.60
      Shipping Average = $11.85
      Total Cost = $210.72
      Average auction price with free shipping = $132.77
      Percent difference with free shipping = 6.6%
      So what does all this information tell us? Well, to me, I see a lot of variance between the data. First off, there were listings with free shipping at the bottom and at the top of all three items. Second, of these 3 and 10 others I researched, none of the top 3 sold prices were free shipping listings.
      To me this makes it seem like it just doesn't make a big difference in terms of Lego sales. People who buy sets are more interested in the set itself and the price than whether its free shipping or not. In general, I think it means your actual listing and well you put it together, when you ended it, etc. make a lot more difference in the final price you get for the item. This means its really nothing to stress out about.
      Looking at all this data, these would be my recommendations of when to do it and when to not:
      When to use free shipping
      If it is an extremely light item, under a pound or so, I would do it. It does add something to the listing and it isn't going to cost you a whole lot extra even if the person lives on the other side of the country. This will attract more buyers and the more bidders and views your auction gets, the more this will make up for any items you sell that go across a long shipping distance. If you live in the middle of the states, I would lean more towards using it. Because I live in the far East, I fear those people in California buying my items listed with free shipping. If you live in the central parts, on average, everyone on Ebay from the US is closer to you. You can apply that logic to every other country as well. If you check before listing an auction and no one else has free shipping. If no one else has free shipping, your auction will definitely benefit because it will be different from all the others. When not to use free shipping
      Don't use it on bigger items. It's not worth taking the chance of a $50 shipping fee for someone. In general on bigger and more expensive Lego sets, I think you get into the people that are more serious because they are spending more money. In this case, these people will add things together and will not really are as much about free shipping over the item itself. If it makes you anxious. If you don't want to worry about what that shipping charge could be, just don't deal with it. Set it to “calculate”. If you want to be able to calculate profits better ahead of time. If you don't have to average in shipping, you will have a better idea of your bottom line. I hope that was good information for anyone reading. What conclusions do you all draw from this?
      Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
       
    • TheOrcKing
      The year, 1927, roughly a few years before the time “talkies” were about to become a global phenomenon, an Austrian filmmaker by the name of Friedrich Christian Anton Lang directed one of the single most important films in history simply titled “Metropolis”. At a cost of five million Reichsmarks (close to $1,200,000 in U.S. currency at the time), it was the most expensive motion picture ever released up to that point. An epic story telling about the lower class toiling away beneath the steel and asphalt of a glorious cityscape powered by their very actions housing the spoiled and privileged. This cult classic with an original running time of one hundred and fifty three minutes is the first ever feature length science fiction movie in history, and the oldest precursor known in the world of cinema for our subject.
      From Jules Gabriel Verne’s incredible submersible named the Nautilus in an era where underwater travel was but an illusion, to Herbert George Wells’ contraption capable of traversing time and space itself coining the very phrase of “time machine”, to Michael Moorcock’s tales of a nomad roaming through the streams of time, all these aspired to the creation of a genre we like to call, steampunk. Although it took sometime in the late 1980s before the actual phrase came about, it has been in various literary works since the 19th century. A typical setting ranges from Victorian landscapes revolving around some form of alternate timeline in which the Industrial Revolution has already begun except electricity is not widespread.
      Created by two of the people from Team Jigsaw behind the Thinking with Portals CUUSOO project, Nick V (Brick Thing) and Evan (Ehl-jay), and then submitted on February 6, 2013, The Adventures of Steamrod is the perfect culmination of steampunk in the form of our favorite medium, Lego.
       

      The story revolves around Sir Jonathan Bolt, a distant relative to famous longtime adventurer Johnny Thunder, and his crusade amongst fellow comrades to recover long lost artifacts before the tyrannical Lord Sinistree and his army of Slybots gets to them first. Interestingly enough, Steamrod is actually the name of the heroes’ locomotive. The entire train with a coal car and laboratory carriage is constructed from over fifteen hundred pieces, sits at 25 inches long and 3 inches wide, and able to function on as well as off track.



      On the side of the villians, the main man himself swoops in with his custom Sky-slizer.

      While his conniving cohorts use a Slycycle and Gyroscopter.

      I must say, I am beyond impressed with the imaginatively creative scope in character design and vehicular builds. Pre-rendered three dimensional representations or not, this is quite simply awe inspiring and a more than worthy concept to expand Lego’s line. This is a theme the company should have done years ago and I still find it somewhat baffling they have not tried to tackle this before. Granted, the steampunk fan base may be considered by some a small niche but so was Star Wars a long time ago. Even if kids might not understand everything about the genre, that does not mean they won’t enjoy themselves all the same.

      This is only one of the many projects I gladly support and I hope you will too, friends.
      Thank you.
      Here is the Flickr gallery for more fantastic imagery.
       
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      I have done quite a few Ebay articles so far (as you all can tell I spend quite a bit of time on Ebay), but I wanted to add a couple of extra things that I had thought of as an addendum to purchasing things on Ebay. These are some extra tips and tricks that fit outside of some of the other articles I have done. These can help you score some good deals on Ebay as well!
      The Watch List
      The watch list is a pretty nice feature that Ebay has and if you have ever been on Ebay you have probably used it. When you look at a listing on Ebay, you can click to put it on your watch list which means that inside of “My Ebay” you can quickly go back and look at the item. Along with this you get alerts by email and by phone (assuming you have the app) that your watched item is about to expire. This is an easy way to keep track of things that you are contemplating like auctions that are far from over or Buy It Now items that you can't decide if you want to buy or not. There are a couple of little tricks that you can use to your benefit:
      The biggest point about your watch list that a lot of people don't pay attention to is keeping your watch list clean. Ebay does not automatically remove listings after they end for several reasons, one of which we will explain below. Basically there are two ways to keep it clean : don't watch an item unless you are actually interested in it and make sure you clear out items that end. You don't know how much this helps. For one, you don't want 100 items in your watch list that have already expired and you can't buy – this just waters it down. The bigger point though is that you can only see a certain amount per page in your “My Ebay” section. If you have items that shouldn't be in your watch list there, you are going to have to spend more time scrolling pages looking through what you want. Also, you will get alerts for these items and if you don't really want them or aren't serious, this is just something else to look at that you don't need to. Another nice thing that a lot of people don't notice: If an item on your watch list that has ended is re-listed, you are notified. This is one reason that you should keep items on your watch list that don't sell – you may see them re-listed at a better price! I will sometimes watch these because I can tell no one will ever press that Buy It Now button. The item will end and I will get a notification of re-listing at way less! Another thing I do commonly with slightly overpriced items is to check the seller's feedback for sold items. If they haven't sold a lot of Lego's, I assume they are just a more casual fan. So I will message them if an auction ends with no bids and tell them I was interested but wasn't quite sure about the price. I will tell them I would buy it for a little less if they are interested. I have got a couple of good deals this way because they can make a quick sale. Just make sure you have them re-list it. If Ebay catches you making “under the table deals” it's not good. Auctions with more than one item
      This can seem somewhat obvious because most people think bulk=less expensive. This is not always true with Legos, especially if the sets are rare and go together (like Queen Anne's Revenge and The Black Pearl). Most people list these for prices that are above market value of both items because they go together, especially using Buy It Now.
      However, in Auction listings, because Ebay encourages lower starting bids, you will see the sets start out very low. Depending on how they are listed and the auction's end time, you may be able to score a really good deal on the items together. An example: I got a Jabba's Palace and Rancor Pit on auction for $120.
      Listings with Buy It Now and Auction as a choice
      Ebay does something somewhat different with there Buy It Now and Auction listings. Basically the rules are: if someone bids, Buy It Now becomes unavailable immediately. On the outside, this doesn't seem like anything that really matters to the Buyer: If you think it will go less than the Buy It Now price, bid. If not, press the Buy It Now button.
      However, there is a trick here. Let's say you find an auction that is a little bit poorly listed. For example, I found an auction a while back for a 7181 UCS X-Wing (the original). The picture was alright, but the listing itself had pretty much no explanation and the item number was not in the listing. The seller had the auction price starting at $60 with a BIN at $150 and free shipping (BP used price for the set is $175).
      In this case, I figured $150 is a really good price and I was very tempted to hit BIN. On the other hand, the way this auction was listed, I figured it very well may not even go that high. So I bid. Why? Well let' say I am right and no one really bids on the Auction? I may win it for way less than $150! There is definitely a risk I wont and that goes into the decision, but this is a trick you can use in a lot of situations. If you think the auction may go less than the BIN and you are willing to risk it, bid quick and no one else can steal the item from you.
      Search for items with Spelling Mistakes
      This is a really simple one – a lot of people have trouble typing or cannot spell some words correctly. If people are lazy with their listings, they are leaving the door open for a smart buyer. Especially if the listing doesn't have the item number in the title. So search for easy spelling mistakes in them. For example “Millenium Falcon”. It's easy to miss that second “n”. An auction found this way could really benefit you. I do this all the time when I am searching for CDs and things of that nature. Because of the item numbers with Legos, it doesn't happen too much, but if you set up a saved search it could really pay off.
      These are just some extra tips you can use to grab those great deals out there. Good Luck!
      Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
       
    • Fcbarcelona101
      There have been several articles in the site about pretty much every single aspect of LEGO Investing: from how to store your sets to some of the "Hazzards", as Quacs explained in his blog article However, there are some other factors we all need to consider when we decide to enter this particular way of investment: the costs.
      I know it sounds pretty obvious, but I strongly believe that a lot of people even in this same forum, are not thoroughly consider all the costs they are incurring at the different levels of the investing process. Even though I know some of the investors out there are not as serious as some others about LEGO investing, I believe that it is extremely important for everyone to keep track of exactly how much money each set they are purchasing is costing them once everything is added. It is not just MSRP and taxes, there are gas costs, storage, wear and tear of the vehicle (if you purchase in store), insurance cost and, very important, opportunity costs.
      For a relatively small investor, each of this costs can represent a significant reduction in their profit margins once you take into account all of the selling fees added by the various outlets like eBay and Bricklink. It is less of a problem for high volume sellers, as some of the fixed costs of a particular purchase trip (gas, tire usage) get spread out over the more sets that investor purchases vs. the 2 or 3 the small investor could afford. Still, someone who moves such high volume usually has his/her costs pretty well documented (I would hope)
      In this article I will try to tackle each cost category and give you a small summary of each, so that you are aware and able to document them better when it comes time to determine your actual profits. I know most people will still do the easier Sale Price - (Price Paid + Fees), just know that, in the end, the number you get from that formula is ultimately flawed unless you consider every cost you incur.
      Let's examine some of the costs categories:
      Price paid for the set
      Pretty self-explanatory, but a cost all the same. This would just be the price you paid for the item itself at the store, online, etc. This is one of the costs everyone will for sure account for in their profit calculations.
      Selling Fees Another cost that I assume everyone takes into consideration are the selling fees the sites like eBay and BL charge for their service. This can be the single most important source of costs for LEGO investors, and while I know some previous articles have talked a lot about the multiple facets of selling in these sites I figured I would try to include some of the fees you are going to be incurring once again:
      eBay: Definitely the site with the most exposure for your items, but also the one with the most expensive fee structure. There are several other variables we would need to consider, like how Stores and Insertion fees past 50 items would affect your fees, but they are out of the scope of this article. The following is the basic fee structure most sellers here will need to deal with in the site:
      Bricklink: A lot cheaper than eBay and focused only on LEGO products. The site has just been sold, so there is hope for a more user friendly interface. Seller friendly fees, but less traffic:
      Brick Classifieds: Brickpicker's own selling platform soon to be live! It has been said that the only fees will be a small $ 1 charge per 30 day listing, so that would make it the best option out there, especially for big and expensive items. Even more, active participants in the site could be able to list several items for free. There are some other selling platforms, but these should be the ones used by most investors as they provide the best exposure and increase selling chances.
      Shipping
      This is a cost usually born by the buyer, either knowingly (by specifically charging for shipping) or unknowingly ("free" shipping bundled in a higher item price), but it is important for the seller to keep in mind that eBay and Paypal fees will also take this into consideration when calculating their piece of the pie.
      Other than the actual transportation costs, there are several other factors related to shipping that the seller has to keep in mind:
      Packing supplies: This includes everything used by the seller both in the packing and shipping process. There are costs associated with the boxes, packing tape, paper and ink for label printing, bubble wrap and other protection items, and every single one of them will cut into your profits unless you take them into consideration when pricing and listing your item for sale. Trips to shipping offices: This cost will be expanded upon a little further in the article, but generally it includes gas and vehicle wear and tear. Time: Another factor I will explain later in a more detailed fashion, but for now it is enough to say that every second you spend shipping your products is costing you money. Ways to save!: There are some cost cutting measures investors can take in every single one of the situations described above. Some of them include saving shipping boxes from purchase merchandise, sourcing boxes from local businesses, refilling printer cartridges instead of purchasing new ones, scheduling USPS pickups (free) or Fedex, UPS pickups (fee).
      Sometimes, trade offs are needed, like say you consider your time to be very valuable and decide to purchase a label printer. This move will save you time, paper and packing tape, but will generate new costs including the purchase price of the printer and new type of paper. It is up to every investor to quantify both benefits and costs to determine if such a move is cost effective.
      Deal Sourcing Expenses
      This is one I am sure several people don't even consider taking into account when calculating their profits. Unless every single of your purchases is made online, there are several costs associated with driving around trying to find great deals on sets. I will list and examine some of them below, while providing you an example of the impact they might have in your bottom line.
      Gas: The most obvious of all. The drive to the several retailers will cost you money at the pump that will ultimately result in a profit reduction, whether you want to account for it or not. The actual cost will vary with you car's fuel efficiency, distance and current oil prices. Vehicle Wear and Tear: This particular cost is often overlooked, in my opinion, but can greatly reduce your margins. Just some of the costs included are loss of resale value, tire wear, engine wear, breaks and pretty much everything that makes your car work. These may also affect your car insurance premium. Both gas and the several other wear and tear costs can be calculated by using AAA's Driving Costs estimates. They release a very good analysis every single year that gives you a very well done estimate about how much each mile you drive is costing you when taking into consideration most of the costs we named above.
      Let's do a quick example of what 2013's edition indicates: Let's assume you drive the average 15,000 miles per year, including all your LEGO hunting drives. According to AAA analysis, the yearly cost per mile including all driving costs would be somewhere around $ 0.61. Let's say I drive 20 miles to several stores and come back home empty handed, then I would have spent around $ 12 for nothing that I would need to factor in my profit analysis in some way or another.
      So, are all those "looking for clearance" trips really worth it? Let's see: (Time and taxes are not considered) (Amazon free shipping assumed)



      We see that even after driving costs are accounted for, the Walmart price per unit ends up being $15 cheaper than purchasing in Amazon. However, this very simple scenario relies on several underlying assumptions that we know are not true for most investors, some are listed below.
      The scenario above assumes that the investor only drove to the Walmart and back home ONCE and was able to find those great clearance deals. What are the odds of that? very small. Most of the time we read about investors making multiple trips, sometimes very long distances, to the same stores and finding nothing or very insignificant discounts. Once you account for all those lost trips, the cost per unit purchased in stores is greatly affected. Assume that the same investor of the above scenarios made 3 previous trips hoping to find clearance deals, those three wasted trips had a cost of $ 36 in total, putting the 2 VCs at about $ 93 each. The investor is now losing money in the long run. I am sure a lot of people here drive way more than 20 miles looking for clearance deals at several different stores in their cities. In those cases, the results would be even worse. Ways to save!: The single best piece of advice I can give you here is to make most of your purchases online. Sites like Amazon and eBay often have extremely good discounts on LEGO sets, and the fact that there is free shipping and no need to get in your car and drive around already saves you a lot of money in the long run.
      If you are still reluctant to abandon your clearance drives, then it is extremely important that once you find a good deal you buy as many sets as you can. The more sets you buy the more spread out your costs will be. Buying just 1 or 2 sets at 30% will greatly hurt your returns long term.
      Inventory Storage
      Unless you have several empty rooms in your home or you only plan to get a couple dozen sets as investments, renting a storage unit will eventually become a necessity. I am sure most of us in this page have not faced that need just yet, but as our inventory grows and we generate enough money to keep increasing it, we will need to either consider renting storage space or just limit our earnings and inventory to the currently available space.
      If you are interested in growing your LEGO operation by re-investing as much as your capital as possible, then the need for more space is in the horizon for you. Obviously, you will be incurring in a monthly rental cost. Furthermore, given the nature of LEGO boxes, a climate controlled unit would be a must in order to protect them from the elements and varying temperatures.
      Just as a reference, a 5'x5'x8' climate controlled unit runs at about $ 50 per month at my local U-Haul. This article is not intended to be a guide to storage costs or any other cost really, just to present to you some of the different costs and give you some examples on how they can affect your earnings.
      For small investors, shelving units will more than likely be only expense related to the actual storing of the sets, but still something that needs to be accounted for in your calculations. Depending on the size and quality of the shelving unit, you might end up paying anything from
      Ways to save!: Not much I can really add in this section. As long as you have space in your home or at some other personal location I would suggest to just buy plastic shelving units and store there as many sets as you can fit. If you see a great deal on shelving units and you know you will continue to invest in new sets, just grab them!
      Once you start managing large quantities, looking for the cheapest storing unit around you could be your only choice.
      Insurance
      Again, something that it is often overlooked by new LEGO investors. If you are planning to invest in several dozens sets, sooner rather than later you will want to make sure your inventory is covered by insurance, especially if you live in some high risk areas (flooding, tornadoes, hurricanes, etc.). It is very easy to reach several thousand dollars in LEGO inventory in a relatively short period of time, and that is actually something you can see for yourself with some forum members. Are you willing to risk losing thousands of dollars in an effort to avoid an insurance premium?
      Ed wrote a very good articleon this topic a while back, where he analyses some of the various options investors have to insure their inventory. At the end of the day, most times you will end up paying something extra in the form of insurance premiums to avoid big losses, so that is something worth considering when performing your calculations.
      Ways to save!: Inquire with your homeowners insurance policy. Some companies will be willing to add your collection to the home's police for little or even no money at all, depending on your particular insurance. Document every set you own and keep good records of their market value, you will probably be updating those fairly frequently. If you own a small collection or live in an area that is not prone to many risks, you can consider avoiding insurance until it becomes a necessity. No need for me to say that you do so at your own risk, right?
      Debt Interest
      This is one cost I would recommend every single investor to avoid. Unless you are able to pay your credit card balance IN FULL each month or have a promotional APR of 0$ for a while, I would not recommend anyone to use their credit card to invest in LEGO. The interest rates will eat significant amounts of your profits to the point you might be losing money without even knowing it.
      Ways to save!: I understand that some credit cards offer some really nice reward programs and benefits, but as said before just pay your balance in full and avoid interest charges on your LEGO purchases. Consider getting debit cards that will give you some rewards without actually lending you money. The Target Debit Red Card is just one example, no interest and still gets you free shipping and 5% on all purchases.
      Taxes
      I don't really have much experience in this topic, but do know that you are responsible for the income generated by your investments, and that would include LEGO. Whether you have some deductions or don't have to pay taxes for some reason or another is something you should discuss with a tax professional. Just be sure to consider these and analyze their impact on your bottom line.
      Time
      We finally get to the last 2 cost categories, and probably the two I consider the most important. Whether you like to believe this or not, your time costs you money. In fact, the cost of your time is present in almost every single cost category we have described so far in this article, from listing items for sale, shipping and packing, to driving around checking for deals.
      If there is a cost that is harder to account for than the rest, then this is it. There are just so many different variables that need to be considered to provide even a semi-decent hourly estimate. For example, someone who is unemployed and does absolutely nothing every day will and should value their time differently than someone who makes $ 30 an hour working at a bank. For the unemployed individual, it might make more sense to spend his time walking from store to store looking for great LEGO deals and selling them for a profit, while the well off executive will for sure be wise to spend his time on his job rather than running around looking for a $30 discount.
      It is impossible for me to tell you how much your time is worth, I just don't know anything about what you do or do not do. It is up to you to figure out a way to value your time, even do it per hour just like a salary. What I DO know is that you need to account for this when evaluating the results of your investments. To put this into perspective, why do you think some people outsource their investments to "Experts"? they are just aware that instead of spending hours researching potential investments to make an extra 0.1% return is not the best way to spend their money.
      Ways to save!:Know the value of your time, and make choices accordingly. Again, try to make the bulk of your purchases online, it only takes a few minutes and you forget about the item until it arrives. Also, consider using some time saving tools if you manage a large volume of items, these range from physical items like label printing devices to some other services like creating a Fedex shipping account that provides package pick up, or signing up for an online tool that makes it easier for you to deal with everything that has to do with inventory and eBay listings (Something like Auctiva or other providers) Even little things like automatic email responses and feedback will add up in the long run and put your time to its best use.
      Opportunity Costs
      This category has a lot to do with time as well, but it goes even further. What opportunity cost means is what are you missing out on by using both your time and capital in LEGO investing.
      For example, let's assume you get an overall 15% on your LEGO investments in 2013. Some of your opportunity costs involve anything that you could have used your original capital that year but did not do because you decided to invest in LEGO sets. Some can be things like a vacation, a car, college, and a bunch of other things. However, my focus is going to be more towards other investments,
      The 15% in LEGO you made this year may look great on its own, but what if a passive investment like an S&P Index Fund produced a 20% result that year? then your opportunity cost would be that extra 5% you would have earned by forgetting about LEGO and going into stocks instead.
      The concept of the time value of money also plays a role in this category. Keep in mind that buying a set and holding it for 2 o 3 years before actually selling it keeps you from using that same money to earn a return during that period of time.
      Ways to save!: I can't think of an actual way to save in this category other than making sure you make the best decision possible with the available information. Think things through, use critical thinking and you'll reduce your chances of being disappointed with your decisions.
      NOTE: If you are just going to remember one thing about this article, I suggest you choose the actual cost of driving your car for miles and miles looking for great deals that more often than not end up not being there.
      ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      LEGO investing is not a get rich quick scheme, it actually takes patience, critical thinking and LOTS of time and capital. Also, as you can see, the actual costs of investing in LEGO go way beyond what most people seem to take into consideration. It is extremely important for LEGO investors to actually take every single one of these costs into account to determine how much money they are actually making in the end. I know this can be overwhelming, and some may argue that they are only doing this to fund their personal collection or to have fun, but not evaluating the actual costs you fail to determining your real profits. As a result, you may end up not funding your personal collection at all and actually lose money in the process of "having fun".
      Related Reads:
      Beginner's Guide to Investing LEGO Style - By Quacs Maximizing Profits - By Eschdaddy Shipping Wars and LEGO - By Stephen Rockefeller LEGO Storage Wars - By Mos Eisley Insuring your LEGO Collection - By Ed Mack The "Hazzards" of LEGO Investing - By Quacs Different Strokes: Investment Strategies- By Grolim Discounts and the Effect They Have on your Investment - By Grolim
       
    • Quacs
      Lego enthusiasts come in all shapes and sizes, and over the years TLC has been great at finding and catering to non-traditional toy enthusiasts. For gearheads, mechanics, and Mr. Fix-Its, the Technic theme is manna from heaven. Consisting of gears, pistons, shocks, struts, hydraulics, motors, and remote controls, Technic models move, squeeze, light, and pull in a variety of ways to showcase hundreds of mechanical functions. Technic was introduced back in 1977, and has become a staple of TLC's product line with over 330 sets released since inception. Because of their complexity, Technic sets are typically "geared" to teens and adults. This just happens to coincide with the majority of secondary market consumers. As a result, Technic sets have traditionally performed well after retirement.
      Let's dive into the wonderful world of Technic returns. To compartmentalize the analysis, I have split the Technic sets by release year, and have broken down each into the following characteristics:
      Release Year
      Set Number
      Set Name
      Retirement Status
      Power Functions
      MSRP
      ROI
      CAGR
      Set Type
      Set Subtype.
      I wanted to target Technic sets with data relevant to the current secondary market, so I chose to analyze sets released back to 2005, starting with the most recent and working back. All of the data is available in Excel at the end of the article.
      2011 - Average Non-Weighted ROI = 37%

      Since 2011 includes our most recent retirees, the returns from this year are still growing. Accordingly, the average 2011 returns are the lowest among the years we've assessed, checking in at a low 37% ROI. In 2011, TLC maintained the expanded, ten set Technic line, and gave us the only set with a negative return (8069) among all of the Technic sets released since 2005. Three items to note among this year's releases:
      I was surprised the Lift Truck was such a dud - it's a neat set at a mid-level price point. Perhaps the expanded product line introduced in 2009 has oversaturated the Technic retail market, causing 8071 (and 8069) to wither on the vine. 8081 Extreme Cruiser was a limited edition release, yet it sports a seemingly small 52% ROI. However, given it's 23% CAGR, we can expect this one to keep climbing. Two of the sets from this year have yet to be retired: 8065 Mini Container Truck and 8110 Unimog U400. The retired sets of note from this year are the two Power Function sets, 8070 Super Car and 8019 Flatbed Truck, and one of the small sets, 8067 Mini Mobile Crane. All three of these have had great secondary market sales and sport CAGRs over 20%. Continued success will continue to propel these, along with 8018, to higher gains. 2011 is also the only year to feature three Power Function sets.
      2010 - Average Non-Weighted ROI = 74%

      2010's ten set lineup has provided decent EOL performances across the board. With the exception of 8041 Race Truck and 8046 Helicopter, all the year's releases sport ROIs greater than 35%. Here are my notes on this year's releases:
      There were two excavators released this year, and while both have provided returns in the black, the smaller 8047 Compact Excavator, with a 120% ROI, has been much stronger than 8043 Motorized Excavator. Purchasing eight Compact Excavators for the same price as one Motorized Excavator would have returned $440 instead of a "measly" $282. My surprise dud from 2010 is 8041 Race Truck. It looks great and it's got a neat flip-top cab to expose the working internals. Unfortunately this set's Brickpicker Value is essentially MSRP, so demand for this has been dreadful. 8051 Motor Bike is also a surprise winner here, and highlights a trend of strong performance from this set type. An ROI/CAGR of 118%/29.56% is incredible performance for any set, let alone one with a middling $40 price point. The Power Function sets this year were nice performers. 8043 Motorized Excavator will likely continue to climb in value, and the slick 2010 Container Truck has almost doubled in value from MSRP. Yet, neither were tops on ROI or CAGR; this honor belonged to 8047 Compact Excavator and 8053 Mobile Crane, an impressive feat for two construction sets that were both remakes.
      2009 - Average Non-Weighted ROI = 116%

      2009's lineup was a tale of two returns: 7 of the 10 sets had returns over 90%, while the other three sets didn't provide an ROI over 30%. There were also some significant changes to the Technic lineup in 2009: the theme expanded by 40%, from 7 to 10 sets where it has remained since, and after a one-year hiatus, a $150 MSRP set returned to the lineup with 8258 Crane Truck. Finally, a very unique model was introduced: 8263 Snow Groomer, a machine found on ski slopes that maintains snow depth and quality for ski resorts. Other notable aspects of this year's release include:
      Two tractors were included among the year's offerings, similar to 2010's excavators. Similar to 2010's excavators, these tractors have gone in opposite directions. Also similar to the excavators, the smaller model performed well while the larger model struggled: 8063 Tractor with Trailer has barely broken a 20% ROI, while 8260 Tractor sports a 180% ROI. Two quads were also released together this year: 8256 Go-Kart and 8262 Quad Bike. While the Quad Bike has languished at a 28% ROI and a subpar 6% CAGR, the Go-Kart became the star performer of 2009's lineup with a 213% ROI and 33.05% CAGR. The small sets were smash hits: 8259 Mini Bulldozer (150% ROI/25.74% CAGR), 8256 Go-Kart (213%/33.05%) and 8260 Tractor (180%/29.36%) all performed really well. That said, 8261 Rally Truck, at $20 MSRP, fell short of small set expectations with 30% ROI / 6.78% CAGR. The Power Functions sets once again performed well. 8258 Crane Truck and 8264 Hauler returned ROIs/CAGRs of 107%/20%, 97%/17.41% respectively. Given the size of the sets ($150 and $70 respectively), these were both nice buys.
      2008 - Average Non-Weighted ROI = 114%

      In 2008, TLC expanded the Power Functions sets to two, the same number TLC has released every subsequent year. Otherwise, this year's releases provided consistent returns with a range from 55% to 163%. A couple of interesting nuggets from 2008:
      8290 Mini Fork Lift and 8295 Telescopic Handler, while similar in function, highlighted two very different mechanical functions. Interestingly, both did well with 163%/21% and 68%/11% ROI/CAGR respectively. Another motorcycle, another nice return: 8291 Dirt Bike continued a positive trend for motorcyles with 128% ROI and 18% CAGR. The Power Functions sets followed previous year return patterns: 8297 Cherry Picker and 8297 Off Roader were TLCs selections for 2008, and they sported ROI/CAGR of 133%/18% and 122%/17% respectively
      2007 - Average Non-Weighted ROI = 147%

      The overriding trend for 2007 Technic sets was very positive, with only one set providing an ROI less than 60% and two thirds of the year's releases returning over 140%. The Farm and Snow sets, small subthemes within the Technic line, were both represented this year, and gave the lineup some uniqueness. A few other items of note from 2007:
      The only other snow-related set, 8272 Snowmobile, was a winner with 143% ROI/16% CAGR. One of the four retired farm sets, 8274 Combine Harvester, also scored well after retirement with 204%/20%. Three of the six sets released in 2007 were construction sets. Two of them were phenomenal successes: 8270 Rough Terrain Crane and the aforementioned Motorized Bulldozer sport ROIs of 150% and 303% respectively. The only true dud from 2007 was 8271 Wheel Loader that was priced at the dreaded $20 MSRP. It's currently valued at $24 with a paltry 20% return. 2007 brought a powerful new extension of the Technic theme to Technic enthusiasts: Power Functions. The first Power Functions set, 8275 Motorized Bulldozer, eventually became one of the biggest hits of the entire Technic theme and the best performing Power Functions model ever. The first Power Functions set also propelled 2007 to the second highest average ROI of the last eight years.
      2006 - Average Non-Weighted ROI = 165%

      2006 returned the highest average ROI among the Technic year releases since 2005. While the average 2006 set provides a whopping 165%, the year's releases are really bipolar: the high flyers are phenomenal, while the lesser performers are dogs. The highest return among all Technic sets (since 2005) is also from 2006: 8288 Crawler Crane has an astronomical 426% ROI! The Tow Truck was also a great investment with an ROI of 324% on an initial purchase price of $120. Two other tidbits I gleaned from the 2006 sets:
      The only set whose title includes the main build and an alternate build comes from 2006: 8284 Dune Buggy/Tractor. Unfortunately, the schizophrenic nature of the title may have hurt its investment options as it only provided a 52%/6% ROI/CAGR. Within this year's releases, there are three service trucks and two quads. Only the Mini Tractor (Farm) and Crawler Crane (Construction) didn't fall into either category. 2006 was a banner year for Technic, and I don't think there will ever be another that will match its returns.
      2005 - Average Non-Weighted ROI = 129%

      While 2005 had some nice returns, it's average ROI isn't as robust as either of the following two years. The flagship from his year didn't disappoint: 8421 Mobile Crane had a phenomenal 255% ROI, and still maintains a 17% CAGR 8 years later. The other six sets in the theme were also solid performers: five of the remaining six had an ROI greater than 100%, while the lowest still appreciated 50% over MSRP. The nuggets from this year's releases:
      Two thirds of the year's releases are construction sets, an unprecedented majority form 2005. That actually helped propel the theme's average higher than normal. The only loser this year is 8415 Dump Truck, although it sports a 50% ROI. For the worst performance of the year, it's still has given a decent return. After all that...
      We've mined a lot of data in the paragraphs and tables above, so let's pick out the items that will help you with your future investments. To start, the average non-weighted ROI for a Technic set since 2005 is 107%, an impressive return by any standards. Because the models have all been categorized by set type, let's see if there are any with better than average ROI/CAGR:
      As the chart shows, the Snow sets have the highest returns at 161% over MSRP. I would guess this is due to their novelty in the Technic line with only two released. I was surprised by how well the Construction sets have performed. The most released set type still maintains a strong 137% average ROI. Of the Construction sets, five have an ROI less than 60%, while twelve have a return over 100%. Drilling down even further, the average return on the Construction Crane subtype (with a total of six sets) is a whopping 195%! Farm equipment also appears to be a great investment with an average return of 149%, good for the second highest earning set type.
      On the flip side, the Service Trucks appear to be hit or miss, with their average ROI of 102% settling in around the theme's average. The Quads look to be terrible investments providing an average return of 69%. Interestingly, the Quad ROI is pulled up by one strong winner, 8256 Go-Kart. Removing this from the average would drop the Quad score to an even more dreadful 40%. Pulling up the rear are Air, Car, and Sport Truck sets. I was shocked to see the Sport Trucks among the bottom perfomers as the sets tend to be big, brawny and impressive. That said, a 49% average ROI is terrible, and much lower than the 107% Technic average.
      Beyond set type, the Power Functions is a subcategory to the Technic line that is worth analyzing. Interestingly, a PF set provides an average return of 112%, with a range of 40%-303%. I was very surprised to see little difference between the performance of PF sets and the Technic average (107%), so PF should not be used as a must have investment criteria. That said, these are Technic's most expensive sets with an average MSRP of $125, and none have provided less than a 40% return, so PF sets will provide some investment cash when sold after EOL.
      Finally, analyzing the models by price point also provides some insight. There are two price points that have provided mostly underwhelming results: $20 and $40 MSRP. The $20 MSRP is easily the worst performing price point with an average return of 41%. Eliminating 2005's well performing 8419 Excavator drops the $20 price point's return even further to a paltry 30%. For whatever reason, people don't buy $20 Technic sets after they retire. While the $40 MSRP has only four data points, it only provides an average ROI of 55%. The ROI of $40 sets is also supported by one well performing set, 8051 Motor Bike. Without its performance, the other three sets provided a measly 34% gain.
      There are also price points with proven winners. All sets with an MSRP of $15 and under have all performed phenomenally with an average ROI of 156%. While these are smaller sets that won't provide large per set returns, they can still provide great diversity to a portfolio stocked with only large sets. The worst performer of this group is 8045 Mini Telehandler at 80%, while the best is 8281 Mini Tractor with a studly 190% ROI. Also, all sets over $100 have provided an average ROI of 147%.
      As you can see, Technic sets perform well after retirement. Only one set out of seventy eight released since 2005 has failed to return a profit, while the average return is just over 100%. Technic should become a part of any serious Lego investor's portfolio, and with careful selection, these Technic sets should produce returns over 150%.
      As always, invest accordingly...
      Part 2 of this Evaluation Corner series will review all 24 unretired Technic sets, including the unreleased ones, and provide an estimated return for each based upon the past returns we've just analyzed.
       
       
         
         
         
         
         
         
       
       

      TechnicData.xlsx (17.48KB)

      : 42
       
    • Quacs
      In the last Technic EC article (Part 1), we assembled the past performance data for all of the Technic sets since 2005 and picked through some of the relevant and interesting information we found. To read this EC article and review our data, click here, or check out the Excel sheet attached at the bottom of the article.
      To summarize our findings, Technic investing has proven to be lucrative, with an average theme ROI of 107%. In this article, I will try to forecast potential returns for the unretired Technic sets that are either currently on the market or unreleased based on the sales data we've compiled when reviewing performance of the older sets. To recap, here are the trends found in Part 1:
      By Category
      Cranes (Construction Subtheme) - Strong ROI, 195% Snow sets - Strong ROI, 161% Farm sets - Strong ROI, 149% Motorcycle - Good ROI, 127% Non-Crane Construction - 107% Service Trucks - Average ROI, 102% Quads - weak ROI, 69% Car - small sample size, 50% Sport Truck - weak ROI, 49% Air - small sample size, 30% By Price Point
      $20 MSRP - bad $40 MSRP - bad >$100 MSRP - good Power Functions = average return
      Given this information, I followed the lead of FCBarcelona and set up a linear regression to estimate the ROI for each of the future sets. The dependent variable I used was, of course, ROI, while the independent variables I input were Set Type Avg. ROI, Price Point and Power Function. To allow a numerical regression for the Power Functions, I assigned each set with a Power Function a "1" and each without a "0". The regression provided our predictive expression model as follows:
      ROI = .97*(Set Type ROI) + .0019(Price Point) - .02(PF) - .07
      Interestingly, the presence of Power Function has a slightly negative effect on ROI per our model.
      Please understand that the predictions from this model are very rough, so no purchasing decisions should be based upon this model's predictions. With that caveat out of the way, on to the new sets:
      8065 Mini Container Truck

      MSRP: $12
      Estimated ROI: 94%
      Estimated Secondary Market Value: $23.28
      Confidence Limits: -60% to 248%
      In looking at the estimated return, this service truck has an MSRP less than $20, so I would guess this would have a little higher ROI since the two similarly priced sets have returned more than 80%. That said, this ROI probably suffers from being a service truck.
      9390 Mini Tow Truck

      MSRP: $12
      Estimated ROI: 94%
      Estimated Secondary Market Value: $23.28 95%
      Confidence Limits: -60% to 248%
      Look like anything before? This set has the exact same input variables as 8065 Mini Container Truck, so the model outputs the same performance.
      9391 Tracked Crane

      MSRP: $20
      Estimated ROI: 186%
      Estimated Secondary Market Value: $37.20 95%
      Confidence Limits: 25% to 347%
      The crane aspect of this set really beefs up the estimated return on this set. It's amazing how much Technic enthusiasts love cranes. The fact this crane also has tracks will likely increase its appeal and retirement returns. This looks like a good small set to invest in if you're looking to diversify the set sizes in your portfolio. This one may be good to flip as well if you can get it at a solid discount.
      42011 Race Car

      MSRP: $20
      Estimated ROI: 45%
      Estimated Secondary Market Value: $29 95%
      Confidence Limits: -110% to 201%
      The two cars from years past that are included in our regression have not provided good returns, so that's really pulling the estimated return for 42011 down as well. The defining characteristic for this model isn't in our regression analysis: the "pull back" action of the car. I don't see the pull back option becoming a "must have" for Technic lovers, so I don't think it will be relevant to its secondary market performance.
      42010 Off Road Racer

      MSRP: $20
      Estimated ROI: 44%
      Estimated Secondary Market Value: $28.80 95%
      Confidence Limits: -112% to 200%
      This buggy has the same "pull back" action as 42011 Race Car, so 42010 will likely perform in step with 42011. This set's return got murdered by the fact that quads haven't historically performed well.
      42004 Mini Backhoe Loader

      MSRP: $25
      Estimated ROI: 102%
      Estimated Secondary Market Value: $50.50 95%
      Confidence Limits: -52% - 255%
      Another sharp looking construction vehicle ready to capitalize on its construction roots. For a small set, I like this model because it has two buckets, one on each end, that both operate. It's also just out of the dreaded $20 price point which can only help.
      9392 Quad Bike

      MSRP: $25
      Estimated ROI: 69%
      Estimated Secondary Market Value: $42.25 95%
      Confidence Limits: -90% to 219%
      Another small set, this one unsurprisingly falls below the 107% average Technic return given its a quad.
      9393 Tractor

      MSRP: $40 Estimated ROI: 145%
      Estimated Secondary Market Value: 95%
      Confidence Limits: -10% to 300%
      This new model is the only farm subtheme representative. As such, it's sports a nice, above average ROI.
      42007 Moto Cross Bike

      MSRP: $40
      Estimated ROI: 124%
      Estimated Secondary Market Value: 95%
      Confidence Limits: -30% to 278%
      Technic buyers love their motorcycles, as all of them have posted some very consistent retirement gains. This one appears to be no different with a 124% return estimated by our model.
      9394 Jet Plane

      MSRP: $50
      Estimated ROI: 36%
      Estimated Secondary Market Value: $78.88
      Confidence Limits: -127% to 190%
      This model has the lowest ROI of any new model. Planes, in the past, haven't sold well after retirement, although there aren't many data points to corroborate this. The model may not have much correlation to the regression prediction, so tread carefully with putting much stock in this estimate.
      9395 Pick Up Tow Truck

      MSRP: $70
      Estimated ROI: 105%
      Estimated Secondary Market Value: $143.50 95%
      Confidence Limits: -49% to 260%
      This service truck comes in right around the Technic average and the Service Truck average.
      42006 Excavator

      MSRP: $80
      Estimated ROI: 112%
      Estimated Secondary Market Value: $169.60 95%
      Confidence Limits: -43% to 267%
      Recently, this set has been heavily discounted by Amazon UK, so I'll be interested to see how it performs. Anywhere near it's estimated ROI will provide a great return for those who purchased at the Amazon UK discount of $55 (shipped to the US). This equates to nealry a $115 gain and a 209% return!
      9396 Helicopter

      MSRP: $120
      Estimated ROI: 45%
      Estimated Secondary Market Value: $174 95%
      Confidence Limits: -122% to 212%
      Another that's been recently discounted by Amazon UK, the recent discounted purchase price was $71. If 9396 sells for it's estimated value, it will return a tidy profit of $103 and a 145% ROI.
      42000 Grand Prix Racer

      MSRP: $130
      Estimated ROI: 66%
      Estimated Secondary Market Value: $215.80 95%
      Confidence Limits: -100% to 233%
      This looks like one awesome set, and because this model emulates a Formula 1 race car, it may have better prospects for retirement gains than the model estimates. This model is also a lot bigger than it looks on the box, clocking it at over two feet long. An impressive set that set for impressive gains.
      9397 Logging Truck

      MSRP: $140
      Estimated ROI: 116%
      Estimated Secondary Market Value: $302.40
      Confidence Limits: -44% to 277%
      An interesting note on 9397 Logging Truck: some of the popularity of the set to date has been fueled by the B-build of the set. This is our first new set with Power Functions and the model predicts a great return.
      41999 Co-Creation 4x4 Crawler Exclusive

      MSRP: $200
      Estimated ROI: 77%
      Estimated Secondary Market Value: $340
      Confidence Limits: -95% to 249%
      Our regression estimate doesn't take into consideration that 41999 is a Limited Edition, so that will likely fuel the Secondary Market Value to even higher returns than 77%.
      8110 Unimog U400

      MSRP: $200
      Estimated ROI: 127%
      Estimated Secondary Market Value: $454
      Confidence Limits: -41% to 296%
      Unsurprisingly, Unimog has a phenomenal investment return profile. Not included in the model is the increased demand that will come from the Mercedes-Benz license. Either way, this set looks like a blowout retirement winner.
      9398 4x4 Crawler

      MSRP: $200
      Estimated ROI: 76%
      Estimated Secondary Market Value: $352
      Confidence Limits: -96% to 248%
      The regression loves these high MSRP sets. Unfortunately, since this is a Sport Truck, it gets dinged compared to Service Trucks and Cranes. However, this was recently discounted by Amazon UK to $130, so if it eventually sells for $352, it will provide a $222 return and a 170% ROI. The secondary returns may be a bit depressed due to the Limited Edition 4x4 Crawler Exclusive, a muscle car that was built on this set's platform.
      42009 Mobile Crane MK II

      MSRP: $200 (estimated)
      Estimated ROI: 217%
      Estimated Secondary Market Value: $634
      Confidence Limits: 46% to 389%
      As the listing says, the MSRP has not yet been released for this set, yet I wanted to give readers the opportunity to see what a true Technic winner this could be. First, note this is only one of two sets whose bottom confidence limit is positive. This tells you that the model is over 95% confident this model will not lose money. If that isn't reassuring, take a look at the potential return: $434 over MSRP. If you can manage to get two of these sets on a TRU BOGO 50%, you're purchase price will be $300 (not including taxes or shipping for simplicity), and your estimated profit would be $968, a 323% ROI, and a lot of cash in your pocket!
      After all that, there are a number of sets that, as of this article's publishing, have no MSRP yet. Here are the newest Technic models that we didn't estimate because of their MSRPs haven't been released:
      42001 Mini Off Roader
      42003 Action Race Car
      42005 Monster Truck
      42008 Service Truck
      To summarize, since 2005 the average Technic set has provided a 107% ROI, an impressive number by any calculation. While it may take the average Technic set a little longer to mature (think 2-3 years), they will bring some really nice ROI to your portfolio. Among the new sets, our regression model loves 42009 Mobile Crane MKII and 8110 Unimog, and frankly it's easy to say why: they look awesome! As always, invest accordingly...
      A couple of notes on the regression model: First, this is not an accurate model because it included only three independent variables, so it shouldn't be used exclusively to make purchasing decision. The 95% confidence limits should corroborate this. Second, the model is heavily reliant on the average ROI by set type, so that's why you see the model providing returns at or near these values. Finally, a number of our average ROI by set type values are based upon two to four data points, not nearly a strong enough quantity to be statistically significant. To parallel this caveat, the data points that comprised the average ROI by set were disparate, so there is some built-in bias inherent in this average ROI by set type value.
       
      TechnicData.xlsx (17.48KB) : 56
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      Lego Castle sets have been a consistent theme in Lego's portfolio since the late 1970's when the first Castle set came out. Unfortunately, it has not necessarily been one of the most impressive themes in terms of CAGR, but some of that is because of how long it's been around and how many sets have been made (Just take a look at the Star Wars overall CAGR and you can see).
      Inside this theme, there have been some big winners amongst the normal gaining sets like the 7946 King's Castle (CAGR of over 30%) and 7185 Escape from Dragon's Prison (CAGR of 57.60%!!!) which means there are some winners to be found int his theme. So is the next line of Castle sets released this year a set of winners? Or should we just assume the castles are guarded by rude French people who throw dead animals?
      First up is the 70400 Forest Ambush :

      From the Lego website:
      Repel the Dragon soldier Forest Ambush!
      Help the brave knights to repel the Forest Ambush! Take the chest of gold and treasure safely back to the castle on the armored cart. When the path through the forest is suddenly blocked by a fallen tree, fend off the Dragon soldier ambush! Draw your weapons, fend off the flick-missile attack and return the gold safely to the castle! Includes 4 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights and 2 Dragon soldiers.
      • Includes 4 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights and 2 Dragon soldiers
      • Features armored cart and a forest base
      • Armored cart features turning wheels, flags and treasure chest with gold and treasure
      • Forest base features flick missile and falling tree function
      • Weapons include spear, crossbow, axe, sword and a spiked mace
      • Accessories include 2 shields and a dog
      • Chop down the tree and stage an ambush
      • Fire the flick missile
      • Protect the treasure
      • Armored cart measures over 2" (6cm) high, 2" (6cm) long, and 1" (4cm) wide
      • Forest base measures over 3" (8cm) high, 2" (7cm) wide, and 1" (5cm) deep
      My Analysis: This set doesn't have a whole lot of pieces but does have 4 minifigures for a very low price at 11.99. It's $.13 per piece, which is not bad for a set with a lot of minfigures . The Dragon soldiers look really cool and should add some easy value to the set. The flick missiles are always an added plus as well. What may really make the set is the Lego dog added in. I think this is just a great value set for an investor if you get it at a little bit of a discount. Because of all the minifigures and the dog you will be able to easily get your money back out of the set by selling the minifigures. This is also a great set for army building to compliment the other castle sets. On its own, I am not sure it would be a big time winner, but as I will allude to later, because of these line I think it will do really well.
      Next we have the 70401 Gold Getaway

      From the Lego site:
      Stop the Dragon soldier from escaping with the King’s Gold!
      Stop the Dragon soldier from stealing the King’s fortune in a Gold Getaway! Fire the large crossbow’s flick missiles from behind the outpost and stop the Dragon soldier on his horse-drawn prison carriage from escaping with the King’s gold! Activate the cell door bust-out function and release the King's Knight. Includes 3 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights and a Dragon soldier.
      • Includes 3 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights and a Dragon soldier
      • Features prison carriage, outpost and a large crossbow
      • Prison carriage features cell door bust-out function, treasure chest and a poseable horse with armor
      • Large crossbow features wheels and a flick missile
      • Weapons include sword, axe and a long axe
      • Accessories include shield and a whip
      • Collect the never-before featured horse-head armor element
      • Pose the horse
      • Fire the flick missile and stop the Dragon soldier escaping with the gold
      • Release the King’s Knight from the prison cell
      • Prison carriage with horse measures over 3" (8cm) high, 7" (19cm) long and 2" (6cm) wide
      • Outpost measures over 3" (8cm) high, 2" (6cm) wide and 1" (4cm) deep
      My Analysis: This set is a lot like the first, just with some extra pieces. At $19.99, it's right at $.10 cents per piece which is again really good for the amount of minifigures you are getting with the set. However, what really sets this one apart is the awesome horse and the matching night. I love the contrasting black and red they colored the horse, the corresponding knight, and the carrier. This really makes this set. I think right off the bat you could buy this set and piece out the minfigures and you are going to make money. I think this is going to be a big time sleeper set in this theme and could be a big time investor value later on. In other licensed themes, a set like this would be close to $30. If you get any discounts at all on this set I would absolutely jump on them.
      Next up is 74002 The Gateway Raid:

      From the Lego website:
      Fend off the Dragon forces as they stage a Gatehouse Raid!
      Ready, aim and fire your weapons! The Dragon forces are staging a Gatehouse Raid with their large catapult. Return fire from the gatehouse tower with the King’s Knights’ catapult attack! Stop the Dragon Knight on his fully armored horse from breaking through the gate! Includes 4 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights, a Dragon Knight and a Dragon soldier.
      • Includes 4 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights, a Dragon Knight and a Dragon soldier
      • Features a gatehouse, large catapult and the Dragon Knight’s armored horse
      • Gatehouse features a tower, small catapult and an opening gate
      • Large catapult features wheels, dual launcher and a storage box
      • Weapons include spear, crossbow and 2 swords
      • Accessories include flags, flame elements, a shield and a coat of arms
      • Launch a catapult attack!
      • Stop the Dragon Knight on armored horseback
      • Combine with 70404 King’s Castle for an even bigger model
      • Measures over 7" (20cm) high, 7" (18cm) wide, and 3" (8cm) deep
      • Large catapult measures over 2" (6cm) high, 3" (8cm) long, and 1" (5cm) wide
      My Analysis: Awesome set; another Horse and Knight in that daunting black and red along with some extra dragon knights. I really love the way all of these sets compliment each other – this is going to really be big for the army/town building buyers. All of these sets fit together so well. I really like this set but don't see near as much value as the last set basically having the same number of minfigures and the same types. The little castle piece looks pretty good but at $.12 a piece I don't think this will be one of the better investments out there. If it gets discounted to a better price, could be a sleeper. The catapult is a good add on for playability and I think it would be a fun build looking at it.
      Next is the 74003 Dragon Mountain:

      From the Lego website:
      Battle for the princess at Dragon Mountain!
      Travel to Dragon Mountain to battle its fire-breathing guardian! Load up the large catapult and fire it at the dragon’s tower! Defeat the dragon and the Dragon Wizard! Search for the King’s stolen gold hidden in the dragon’s nest and find the secret potion room. Then overpower the Dragon soldier on the steps of the tower and rescue the princess from the dark dungeon! Includes 5 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights, princess, Dragon Wizard and a Dragon soldier.
      • Includes 5 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights, princess, Dragon Wizard and a Dragon soldier
      • Features large catapult, spiral staircase, tower with dungeon and dragon nest with secret gold compartment and potion room
      • Large catapult features wheels and a catapult function
      • Weapons include 2 swords, spear and a staff
      • Accessories include a treasure chest and 2 shields
      • Destroy the tower with the powerful catapult
      • Free the princess from the dungeon
      • Defeat the wizard in his tower
      • Find the hidden stash of gold
      • Discover the secret potion room
      • Launch an aerial attack with the dragon’s poseable wings
      • Measures over 8" (21cm) high, 9" (24cm) wide and 5" (13cm) deep
      • Catapult measures over 1" (4cm) high, 4" (12cm) long and 3" (9cm) wide
      • Dragon measures over 4" (11cm) high, 13" (35cm) long and 13" (33cm) wide
      My Analysis: In case you have been living in a cave for the past year or two, Dragons are pretty popular. Just go check out the Ninjaco Theme to see for yourself (If you don't know, it has the best CAGR of any theme at the moment and most of it's lineup is focused on dragons). This set is going to be the best of the bunch in my opinion. We have precedent from a few years ago with the 7185 Escape from Dragon's Prison, and this one is going to be the same way. For what you get, the set is priced really well at $49.99 and $.13 a piece because of the dragon. It's amazing looking and that black and red is just incredible. I love this line because of it.
      One of my tests for a set I am unsure about is to show it to my wife and see what she thinks as she is a more casual Lego fan. Her mouth fell open looking at the dragon. On top of it, you get a pretty large catapult and 5 more minifigures! Stock up people, this set is going to really dominate this line. I think it could be a $125 set in a few years. The dragon alone will be worth the price of the set's retail price by the time its been EOL for a year or so.
      Last, but certainly not least is 74004 King's Castle

      From the Lego Website:
      Defeat the Dragon soldiers in the final battle at the King’s Castle!
      Protect the King and his people from the Dragon soldiers at the King’s Castle! Fire the catapult, lower the drawbridge, raise the gate and lead the charge with the fearless White Knight on his armored horse! Stop the Dragon soldiers before they use the deadly battering ram and catapult weapon. This fantastic modular castle design features towers, a dungeon, the King’s throne, the knights’ table, a moveable staircase, secret escape door and more. Includes 7 minifigures with weapons and accessories: the King, White Knight, 2 King’s soldiers and 3 Dragon soldiers.
      • Includes 7 minifigures with weapons and accessories: the King, White Knight, 2 King’s soldiers and 3 Dragon soldiers
      • Features battering ram/catapult weapon, towers, prison, collapsing back wall, King’s throne, knights’ table, moveable staircase, hidden escape door, weapon rack and flags
      • Weapons include spiked mace, 3 swords, axe, crossbow and a bow with quiver
      • Accessories include 2 shields and a treasure chest
      • Push the battering ram to fire the catapult!
      • Customize and build your own modular castle design
      • Combine with 70402 The Outpost for an even more awesome model
      • Measures over 11" (28cm) high, 13" (35cm) wide and 12" (33cm) deep
      • Battering ram/catapult weapon measures over 1" (5cm) high, 3" (9cm) long and 2" (6cm) wide
      My analysis: This set is very similar is almost exactly the same size and piece count as the aforementioned older King's Castle that has seen a CAGR of 30%. This one is going to be right there with it in my opinion. First off, the castle looks great and has 7 minifigures, with several being exclusive to the set. Second, this set is a different color scheme which means if builders and collectors have the red line from a few years ago, this one will contrast it well. They could set it up as an opposing kingdom! Castle's themselves have done really well and will continue to because of Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings and Monster Fighters and this line itself. This one, in my opinion, will be the second best set of the line and will easily reach the CAGR of the last King's Castle.
      Overall Analysis: Though this theme hasn't been the biggest winner of all time, I think Lego has finally figured out exactly what is in right now with castles and dragons. With the added detail and vibrant color scheme of this line, I think these are going to continue the success of the last line of this theme. The last line EOL'd fairly quickly as well so if that happens to these, we could really see some big time gains.
      As far as playability, these sets are off the chart with the mass amount of minifigures and the way the sets really come together. I think even if you don't want to invest in these you can agree they would be really fun to have on display, and even more fun to play with.
      Either way, I know I am going to follow this one rule with Lego in general: Invest in the Dragons. I encourage you to follow in those footsteps (I definitely didn't pave them so I am following as well).
      What do you think will be the biggest winner in this theme? How well do you think the theme will do overall?
      Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.


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