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    • MartinP
      Return On Investment (ROI) is a common tool used to see how an investment did. Most of the members on Brickpicker know about the Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). There is a formula that goes with CAGR to predict how a set will do for future investments. I always say that the CAGR formula is used before investing. Now here is a formula explaining how your investment did after you made your profit. The formula for ROI is very simple and each part of it will be explained.
      ROI = (Gain from Investment - Cost of investment)/ Cost of Investment
      Gain from Investment: How much money did you gain from your investment. For example, I spent $400 USD on 2 UCS B-Wings and then sold them for $250 each. My gain from this sale would be $500 USD. Cost of Investment: How much money did you spend on your investment. For example, I spent $400 USD on 2 UCS B-Wings. That is the cost of investment: $400 USD. If you do not want to mix up all your numbers here is a simplified version of the equation. ROI = Profit / Cost of Investment
      Profit: How much money you made from a sale. From the above version, it is $100 USD. My sales totaled $500 USD, but my expenses were $400 USD, thus making my profit $100 USD. Cost of Investment: Same exact description as the one above. Now, lets try this out.
      Example A
      Say that you bought one set for $9.99 USD. (This is a retail price) Then you wait three to four years before selling it. You sold it for $27.89 USD.
      ROI = (27.89 - 9.99) / 9.99
      ROI = 17.9 / 9.99
      ROI = 1.79
      ROI = 179%
      To change the answer from a number to a percent, just multiply your final answer by 100. And remember that you must figure out your profit first before doing anything else.
      Example B
      Say that you bought a set on sale for $125.38 USD. You wait four years before selling it. You sell it for $479.67 USD.
      ROI = (479.67 - 125.38) / 125.38
      ROI = 354.29 / 125.38
      ROI = 2.83
      ROI = 283%
      While the retail for the set is $129.99 USD. You sell it for $479.67 USD after waiting four years.
      ROI = (479.67 - 129.99) / 129.99
      ROI = 349.68 / 129.99
      ROI = 2.69
      ROI = 269%
      The ROI of an investment can change depending on the purchase price. As you can see above, the ROI was greater when the set was purchase on sale. Although it was a mere $5 USD difference, the ROI difference was 14%. A higher ROI is always better.
      The ROI is a very useful tool that helps determining how well your investment was. Now, go check all your investments and see how you did!
      Thanks for reading!
       
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      I think the generally consensus on the Lord of the Rings theme among investors is that it will follow in the footsteps of the latest Harry Potter sets and be huge gainers. Though we haven't seen any of the theme's first line of set's retire, you can look at some of the prices currently for the sets and see a lot of them have barely lost any value before retirement. These don't have to go far to have a very positive CAGR (Like 9474 Helm's Deep) . One set in 9476 The Orc Forge is already doing incredibly (50% CAGR and not officially retired yet!!!).
      But as we all wait for the third movie's line of sets and the obvious Eye of Souron we are all waiting for, what do we have out of the second line that could be a big time set for investors? I am going to go through all the sets and describe them as well as give my views on theme from an investment and Playbility/Building point.
      The Wizard Battle 79005

      From the Lego website:
      Recreate The Wizard Battle at The Tower of Orthanc, as Gandalf the Grey takes on his mentor and old friend, Saruman, who has fallen under the influence of Sauron while gazing into his palantir. Saruman will stop at nothing to deliver the One Ring to his new master and serve him by helping to conquer Middle-earth. Avoid the spinning palantir’s spell, cast powerful staff magic and send Saruman flying from his throne! Stay away from Sauron’s mesmerizing gaze or risk being enslaved yourself! Includes 2 minifigures with staffs: Gandalf the Grey and Saruman.
      • Includes 2 minifigures: GandalfTM the Grey and Saruman
      • Features throne with flick function, spinning palantir with Eye of Sauron and cool yellow lamps
      • Weapons include 2 staffs
      • Push the throne flicker and send Saruman flying!
      • Battle Saruman and stay away from his spinning palantir
      • Avoid being mesmerized by the Eye of Sauron
      • Measures over 7" (18cm) high, 4" (11cm) wide and 4" (12cm) deep
      My Analysis: Honestly, when I saw this set I was just a bit disappointed with it. I think this really came from the fact that I assumed that we would see the tower of Orthanic along with it. Now, don't get me wrong, I will discuss the Tower of Orthanic shortly and am still pretty satisfied with that set, but this one is a bit underwhelming to me for that reason. I would have rather them done a different scene for the small set and sort of include this with the Tower.
      Past what I would have done (Obviously Lego is smarter than me), I don't really know investment-wise that this set has much to offer. Neither minifigure is exclusive although Sarumon is only in one other set at the moment being the Tower of Orthanic. Both minifigures are a little bit different than their counterparts in other sets so if someone really wants to collect everything, they will want this. Honestly to me, this is another 9469 Gandolf Arrives in that it's a decent little set, but nothing investors should look at.
      I will say that the playability with this set should be off the chart though. You have the small little duel area along with the mystic ball showing the Eye of Souron which is pretty awesome looking. Think about all the kids that will buy this set and have these minifigures flying around pointing their wizard sticks at each other. Pretty cool. While I don't think it's a great investment set, I think it will sell really well while it's around because of the decent price per piece of $.11 and the play-ability value.
      The Council of Elron 79006

      From the Lego website:
      Plan the downfall of Sauron at The Council of Elrond!
      Build the majestic Elven city of Rivendell, home to Elrond and his beautiful warrior-princess daughter, Arwen. Call Gimli and Frodo Baggins to The Council of Elrond to plan the destruction of the One Ring and the defeat of Sauron. Place the Ring on the podium and recreate this classic scene from The Fellowship of the Ring! Send Gimli flying with the launch function when he tries to destroy the Ring with his axe. Beware the Eye of Sauron, as he draws closer to the Ring that will lead to the fall of Middle-earth! Includes 4 minifigures with weapons: Elrond, Arwen, Frodo Baggins and Gimli.
      • Includes 4 minifigures with weapons: Elrond, Arwen, Frodo BagginsTM and GimliTM
      • Features Rivendell setting with unique Elven wall arches, weapon rack, steps, tree, 3 chairs, a podium with minifigure launch function and the hidden Eye of Sauron
      • Includes 4 weapons: golden Elven sword, bow, Sting and an axe
      • Also includes the One Ring • Collect the autumn-color leaf elements
      • Send GimliTM flying with the catapult function!
      • Beware the evil Eye of Sauron!
      • Recreate the majestic home of Elrond
      • Rivendell setting measures over 5" (15cm) high, 9" (24cm) wide and 6" (17cm) deep
      My Analysis: This set is really an intriguing one. It is definitely one that can get lost in the other set's because of it's lack of a battle context. On the other hand, this set is one of the most iconic scenes of the movie and even more, has become legendary because of Boromir's “One can not simply” line which may even be more popular than the actual scene. This set also comes with Arwen, which is an exclusive figure to this set as well as Elrond, an exclusive variant of the figure.
      However, I think some people will not like the fact that this scene was done without Boromir. He had one of the top lines of the movie. Now, you can say “many of the other council figures are here either”, but Boromir is who I think of when I think of this scene. The only way to get him is to have Mines of Moria which will be gone shortly and is a much more expensive set. I think that will hurt the sale of this set. Maybe in the future it will not matter when they are both retired, but I just really think this set could have been better. Anyone who has seen the Lego concept ideas with the whole Elf Village knows this set could have had quite a bit more.
      Playability wise, I think its a decent set if you have a bunch of the other sets and can fill out the minfigures. I'm afraid though at $.12 a piece there is not enough here for people to really jump on it. My thoughts would be there are better sets in the line to invest money into.
      The Battle at the Black Gate 79007

      From the Lego website:
      Defeat the forces of Sauron in a great Battle at the Black Gate!
      Fly the Great Eagle high above the Black Gate of Mordor where Aragorn and Gandalf the White must distract the Eye of Sauron. Use them to stage a scene while Frodo Baggins and his friend Sam throw the One Ring into the fiery depths of Mount Doom and destroy it forever. To reach the Ring’s final destination, you must defeat the Mouth of Sauron and the Mordor Orcs positioned high in the spiked gate walls. Then breach the gate and lead the attack on the enemy! Includes a Great Eagle and 5 minifigures with weapons: Aragorn, Gandalf the White, Mouth of Sauron and 2 Mordor Orcs
      • Includes a Great Eagle and 5 minifigures with weapons: AragornTM, GandalfTM the White, Mouth of Sauron and 2 MordorTM Orcs
      • Black Gate features cool spiked detailing, opening and locking doors, secret entrance and a catapult
      • Also includes a poseable horse
      • Includes 5 weapons: staff, 3 swords and a ball and chain
      • Combine multiple sets for even bigger battles
      • Defeat the Mouth of Sauron on the poseable horse!
      • Look out for flying catapult rocks!
      • Sneak through the secret entrance!
      • Soar into the air on the Great Eagle
      • Collect the never-before-seen Mouth of Sauron and Aragorn™ decoration and cape
      • Black Gate of Mordor™ (with gate closed) measures over 8" (22cm) high, 11" (30cm) wide and 2" (7cm) deep
      • Great Eagle wingspan measures over 7" (19cm)
      My analysis: Honestly I could just immediately say “Buy it” and you all could move on. I am going to expand on that, but if you are looking for a quick answer, that's the one.
      What's not to love with this set? Everyone loves the gates and castle's that Lego has done and this one is just amazingly impressive. First off, it has 5 minifigures which is really solid for a $60 set. It also includes one that is exclusive in the mouth of Saur. Though he wont be incredibly sought after, he is really an awesome looking figure. It also comes with two orcs which is always good for army building. The Black gate itself if really a daunting shade of black and is designed perfectly so that you can create giant walls and combine this set with others to really make an impressive scene, It's also only $.09 a piece which is incredible for a licensed set with this many minifigures. Honestly I think people would have paid $80 for this set.
      On top of all this it comes with a black horse and the great eagle figure which an awesome size for display and play-ability. The gate itself also has some cool features in a secret entrance and the flying catapult rocks which will really make kids want this.
      I think this is going to be one of the sets to have of the whole LOTR series and will really post an impressive mid-size set CAGR. Make sure you have tons of these before they EOL (which will be a long while). Make sure you build at least one or two as well. I guarantee it will see a CAGR of 35+ in the first year (My guarantees do not have a penalty so don't take that as a real guarantee )
      The Pirate Ambush 79008

      From the Lego Website:
      Launch an ambush attack on the Sauron Army from the Pirate Ship!
      On the shores of Minas Tirith, Sauron’s Mordor Orcs prepare to greet their allies aboard the Pirate Ship – but all is not as it seems. Pull up alongside them, drop the anchors and lead a surprise attack with Aragorn, Gimli, Legolas Greenleaf and the Army of the Dead. This majestic Corsair ship features 3 large sails, removable rear section with dungeon and Pirate of Umbar prisoner, firing crossbow and loads of armor and weapons! Capture the Orc catapult and lead the glow-in-the-dark King of the Dead and his soldiers into battle at the War of the Ring! Includes 9 minifigures with weapons and accessories: Aragorn, Legolas Greenleaf, Gimli, 2 Mordor Orcs, the King of the Dead, 2 Soldiers of the Dead and a Pirate of Umbar.
      • Includes 9 minifigures with weapons and accessories: AragornTM, Legolas GreenleafTM, GimliTM, 2 MordorTM Orcs, the King of the Dead, 2 Soldiers of the Dead and a Pirate of Umbar
      • Features 3 large sails, removable rear section with dungeon and Pirate of Umbar prisoner, firing crossbows and lots of great Middle-earth Corsair detailing
      • Also features firing Orc catapult with wheels
      • Weapons include 3 swords, 3 crossbows, 3 spears, axe, long axe, bow with quiver and a longbow
      • Accessories include 10 plain shields, 14 decorated shields, shackles, 2 torches, 2 keys, rat, bread, diamond, coins, maps, goblets and a chain
      • Lock up the Pirate of Umbar so he doesn’t escape!
      • Fend off the Orcs with the crossbow!
      • Turn off the lights to see The Army of the Dead glow in the dark
      • Drop the anchors and lead the charge against the Orc forces
      • Measures over 13" (35cm) high, 23" (60cm) long and 5" (14cm) wide
      • Catapult measures over 1" (5cm) high, 3" (8cm) long and 2" (6cm) wide
      My Analysis: After the first couple sets in the new wave of this theme were a little underwhelming, it seems Lego more than compensated us. This set is incredible looking. This is a very popular scene from the movie and a good change of pace from all of the castle battles. The pirate ship is incredibly detailed and just has a nasty dead look to it (I mean that in a really great way).
      Though the set has a relatively low number of pieces for a $100 set, it has 9 minifigures! On top of this, 4 of them are exclusive which is relatively unheard of in a movie themes like this. These include the coolest minifigures of the set in The King of the Dead, both Soldiers of the Dead, and the Pirate of Umbar.
      From an investment standpoint, I just really can't find anything at all wrong with this set. It has the four exclusive minifigures as well as 9 total. It's also a pirate ship which have done incredibly well as Lego sets. Queen Anne's Revenge 4195 has a CAGR of 37.45% and 4184 the Black Pearl has a CAGR of 29.38%! This means we can expect something around 30% CAGR on the low side. I would venture this set may do even better because of the fact that Lord of the Rings was more popular than The Pirates of the Carribean,.
      Playability is pretty obvious as well with all the minifigures, the details on the ship and the catapult. Just all around a great set with no downsides. I will have one or two to display as long as plenty to invest in. I would suggest you do the same.
      The Tower of Orthanic 10237

      From the Lego website:
      Build the The Lord of the Rings™ trilogy must-have model!
      Finally, collect one of the most instantly recognizable and iconic buildings of The Lord of the Rings™ trilogy: The Tower of Orthanc™! Build all 6 highly detailed floors filled with fascinating movie-related details including the attic, library, alchemy room, Saruman’s throne room, entrance hall and dungeon. This exclusive model stars in some of the most iconic scenes from The Lord of the Rings movies. Swoop down with the Great Eagle and rescue stranded Gandalf the Grey from his tower-top prison after his defeat at the hands of the white wizard, Saruman. Build the powerful, tree-like Ent, with poseable limbs and cool swinging arm function, then attack the Uruk-hai and Orc Pitmaster while Saruman and his servant Grima Wormtongue take refuge high in the tower. The Tower of Orthanc is a must-have model for any The Lord of the Rings collection! Includes a Great Eagle, buildable Ent figure and 5 minifigures with weapons: Saruman with kirtle outfit, Grima Wormtongue, Gandalf the Grey, an Uruk-hai and the Orc Pitmaster.
      • Includes a Great Eagle, buildable Ent figure and 5 minifigures with weapons: Saruman with kirtle outfit, Grima Wormtongue, Gandalf™ the Grey, an Uruk-hai™ and the Orc Pitmaster
      • Features 6 highly detailed floors with lots of functions, including a folding staircase, LEGO® light brick palantir, opening entrance doors and a trap door
      • Weapons include 5 staffs, knife, sword, shield and a long axe
      • The attic features a folding staircase, the 3 staffs of the missing wizards, the 2 keys of the Two Towers, 2 maps and an Uruk-hai helmet, shield and sword
      • The library features 2 books, 2 torches, 2 maps and 2 skulls
      • The alchemy room features 2 torches, a bomb (being produced for the Battle of Helm’s Deep™), 2 potions, bottle, skull, gunpowder keg, pot, cauldron and a long axe
      • Saruman’s throne room features lamps, 2 bookcases with 3 potions, map, letter and the powerful palantir with a LEGO light brick
      • The entrance hall features opening doors, trap door, 2 large banners, chandelier, statue and 2 axes
      • The creepy dungeon features a chain, 2 bones, 2 skulls and a rat
      • Buildable Ent features poseable limbs for holding a minifigure and a cool swinging arm function
      • Attack the tower with the cool buildable and poseable Ent!
      • Swoop to the rescue with the Great Eagle!
      • Activate the LEGO light brick and make the palantir glow!
      • Set the trap door and banish unwanted guests to the dungeon!
      •Prepare the bomb for the Battle of Helm’s Deep!
      • Swing the Ent’s arms to smash or grab things with the poseable fingers!
      • Measures over 28" (73cm) high, 8" (21cm) wide and 6" (16cm) deep
      • Ent stands over 9" (23cm) tall
      My Analysis: If you think I liked the last couple of sets in this line, take it and multiply it by 100 for this set. As Ed said in a recent thread, this is an incredibly impressive set (Ed said it looked much better than the new UCS X-Wing).
      Before I give more analysis, I want to offer something as an example of the Tower's Power (It should have surname of Tower of Power. Man that was a great band. I digress). My wife recently bought a 3D puzzle from Barnes and Noble of the Tower of Orthanic. It is in our kitchen. Everyone that has come in our house has commented on how awesome it is:

      This tower, that everyone has found impressive, is made of foam puzzle pieces. Not Legos. Looking at this set, my puzzle conversation piece has absolutely nothing on Lego's Tower. I think we will have this in the kitchen as well and anyone who comes in our house will never shut up about it.
      Along with the set, you get 5 minifigures with one of them being Grima Wormtounge who is exclusive to the set. You also get a great Eagle and one of my most anticipated minifigure: Ent. This guy is going to be a big time money maker. I would venture to say he is one of the top 5 characters from the movie and with his giant stature (9 inches tall) he will be one of the best minifigures out there. He adds a ton of playability and investment stature to this set.
      Just with everything above, this set would be a winner. But now we are adding the fact that this is a Hard to Find, expensive set. It is also a Lego Exclusive meaning pretty much no discounts ever on it (since there isn't a LOTR special Lego day to get half price on a set) , keeping the price high. I really completely believe this set will see SW UCS set gains with it being worth up to $600-$800 in 4-5 years after retirement. It is a complete set and the fact that it matches up with the black gate just makes it even more desirable. Everyone that gets that Black Gate is going to want this set.
      Make sure you have as many of these as possible when it goes away. You will not be sorry.
      Well there you have it. I know I will have one of each of these to build and be looking to get each of the Gate, Ship, and Tower for investing purposes. I think this line will be the best gaining theme of 2013 and possibly even better than the recent Harry Potter line. Plus these movies are already out and are done which means the series can't go down or have a bad movie like the Star Wars line and the Hobbit line and wont ever have duplicates most likely.
      What do you all think? Do you share my optimism or do you see any downfalls?
      Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
       
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      Most of us here love when we sell a set online, no matter what it is. That sound of "cha-ching" comes and we are in Ecstasy. It brings a feeling like no other .
      But, unfortunately we are generally immediately brought down to earth by the fact that we now have to ship it. If you all are like me, you hate this part. You can never decide exactly how much shipping is going to be and whether you should add extra services. You always worry something will happen during the shipment. You ask yourself, Should I get insurance? Should I get delivery confirmation? Should I get signature confirmation?
      I used to run a small side-project/business out of my apartment in college and shipped and received 100s of packages. I have had the best and worst experiences with each carrier so I can offer some direct experience with each and provide some advice towards our final assumptions. As well, I have compiled some research using shipping calculators so we can judge when we should use each service.
      First off, we know that price is going to matter more than anything else, so I picked four normal package sizes based off common sets and then compiled the data. I then added a few inches to the dimensions (doesn't affect the price) and weighed boxes at these dimensions and rounded to give us a good control of what the boxes this size will add to the weight. Below weights are the total weight after the box is added.
      I came up with the following: Weight Dimensions(LxWxH)
      Battle Pack size 2lbs 11x8x2 Medium set (Orc Forge) 3lbs 12x15x4 Large sets (Helm's Deep) 6.5lbs 24x16x5 Massive set (Tower Bridge) 11.5lbs 42x12x18 Now I had to figure out distances to ship. I live in a southern state in the East, Alabama, so I decided to start from there. Shipping is all an equation used by the shipping entities, so I chose a short normal distance and a longer distance so we see a little of both and find out where we should use each service.
      My short distance is about `280 miles, or Alabama to Kentucky. The results are below. The “Ebay” column inside the FEDEX part is the discount you get by using FEDEX through Ebay.

      Here are the services time to delivery:
      USPS Priority 2-3 Days (Not Guaranteed) USPS Parcel Select 2-9 Days (Guaranteed) FEDEX (Home Delivery) 2-3 Day (Guaranteed) UPS (Ground) 3-5 Days (Guaranteed) As you can see from the above data, for the two smaller package sizes, USPS is king. Parcel select is actually higher than Priority, which is weird, but USPS is significantly cheaper than the other carriers and they offer priority 2-3 Days which, though not guaranteed.
      However, around the Large package, the FEDEX price starts to even out whereas the UPS and USPS (Priority) keep going up. USPS and FEDEX are basically on par at this point (Though through Ebay FEDEX is cheaper).
      Once we get to the massive set, USPS parcel select seems to be the best option, but the length of time it could take might come into play (although this is a short distance so it may not be a problem). FEDEX is reasonable at $23.27, and with Ebay even more so.
      Whats wild is that UPS is never really in contention at all. Unless you have a discount, you are going to overpay using UPS for a relatively normal shipping distance.
      Now, I decided to do a longer distance, from the East to the West, so I chose Alabama to Arizona, or about 1500 miles. Here are the results:

      This was really interesting. I had always assumed USPS was always the cheapest shipping company, but this doesn't seem to be the case.
      USPS Priority is still the cheapest fast service for the Battle Packs and the medium sets. Parcel Select is just a slight bit cheaper, but not worth it in my opinion as going this far it will most likely take 5-6 days at least. You can spend 50 cents more and get guaranteed 3 Day with FEDEX Home Delivery.
      Looking at the Large packages, there is no contest. FEDEX clearly shines above the rest. Its even cheaper that USPS Parcel Select which can take up to 9 days!
      As we get to the massive sets, though, FEDEX takes a huge jump, most likely because they don't offer anything less than 2-3 days. USPS parcel select picks up the slack with a very reasonable $24.25. It may take quite a long time to get there, but its $20 cheaper which you or the buyer if they are paying it will appreciate.
      Final Verdict on Price
      USPS wins no matter where you are shipping for battle pack and medium sized sets. FEDEX is a close and acceptable second because of the guaranteed faster ship times. As the weight gets heavier within this range, FEDEX becomes the best option as the prices become negligibly different.
      In the Large set range, FEDEX wins at both distances. Though USPS is about the same with Parcel select and just a bit more with Priority, FEDEX guaranteed delivery times puts them over the top.
      As for massive sets, ship with USPS parcel select unless you have to get it there quick. You will save almost half off. If you have to ship it fast, ship it FEDEX or you are going to pay an arm and a leg.
      Add-on options
      Tracking and Delivery Confirmation
      The most popular add-on is tracking as we all know hat tpeople want to know when their item is going to get there and where it is just in case there is a delay. All three services offer this. However, USPS is the only one that charges for it. If you go up to the counter, it is $.90, but online it is only $.20. Its worth it to have, but doesn't really change what we said about the price because when USPS won, it was by more than this small of an amount.
      FEDEX and UPS both offer very robust tracking and update very often. They have complex computer systems that keep track of it and they are very good at estimating when it will be somewhere. This also makes it a lot more trustworthy if something goes wrong; you will always know where your package was lost.
      USPS tracking is not on the same par with these two though. They do update it, but not very often and the timestamps are usually pretty far off.
      Tracking verdict
      UPS and FEDEX are equally good. USPS has it and its reasonable if you need it, but is not to the level of the other carriers.
      Signed Delivery
      USPS offers this for 2.20 flat no matter who it is and what the package is. FEDEX offers three services: Signature delivery (2.25), Designated Signature (3.50), and Adult only Signature (4.50). These are flat across any shipment. UPS offer 2 services: Signature delivery (4.25) and Adult only (5.25). These are flat across any shipment.
      Signed Delivery Verdict
      Most of us will only use normal delivery signature. Its about the same for USPS and FEDEX so both get the nod here. Again, UPS is price gouging.
      Insurance
      USPS rates are shown below:
      $1.65 ................ $0.01 to $50 value
      $2.05 ................ $50.01 to $100 value
      $2.45 ................ $100.01 to $200 value
      $4.60 ................ $200.01 to $300 value
      Add $.90 per $100 in value
      FEDEX offers free insurance up to $100 value, from $100-$300 value it costs $2.10, and for past that you add $.70 per $100 in value.
      UPS is free up to $100 in value. Past that it is $.85 per $100 in value.
      Insurance Verdict
      FEDEX is a pretty clear winner here because they offer it free on the cheaper sets and has the lowest rate thereafter. Also, I have found that they and UPS are equally good at following through and approving insurance claims.
      USPS unfortunately is the exact opposite and makes it a nasty process.
      Reliability
      This section is straight from experience as I have used all three shipping services as a buyer and seller and I also work for a company that has a deal with all three and I ship out things every day there as well.
      USPS is by far the least reliable. You can't really trust their tracking and I have lost far more packages in their system. Also, they really struggle between corporate and local branches with communication. If you ever have a question or lose a package, everyone will tell you that someone else will know about it.
      UPS and FEDEX are both pretty reliable. I have had really no problems with either of them losing packages. FEDEX would get the slight nod as they pretty much never leave packages on your doorstep. Some people may like them left, but if I am not home I would rather they take them back to the office than to set them on the doorstep and hope no one takes them.
      Reliability Verdict
      FEDEX and UPS are on even ground though FEDEX is more responsible about leaving packages.
      Customer Service
      This one is the most fun to comment on . In my experience, and plenty of others, USPS has worst customer service than people running a torture chamber. Generally, when I have to go in my local USPS, there is 1 person working with 500 people in the store. Most of the cashiers are generally rude. In the post office, you must pay for items like tape. They barely ever have pens out for people to use. And the line is always 20 people long at least. As I mentioned before, their corporate system is basically worthless to call as they don't communicate with the Local offices and can't really (or don't want to) look up anything. They get a resounding F.
      FEDEX is my favorite. Most of them are way nicer than a normal post office inside. They generally have very nice customer service oriented cashiers who are very nice and very understanding and helpful. I recently went to one where they had misplaced my package for a moment and the women apologized no less than 10 times. I don't think I have ever heard someone from USPS apologize. Their corporate is really good – although I have only had to call them a couple of times because their local people get their stuff done. They will also give you free tape if you need it which wins awards in my book. They get an A.
      The USPS is pretty nice too, really to the equivalent of FEDEX. I have had a couple of instances where I had weird items to ship and they always found a box and always had what I needed. They don't make you pay for tape and sometimes will just give you a box for free. They get an A.
      Customer Service Verdict
      FEDEX and UPS are even and USPS is a largely distanced 3rd.
      Other considerations
      If you must ship across country, USPS does have priority flat rate shipping boxes. The smallest one will not fit any Lego sets that aren't worth shipping another way. However, for medium sized sets that weigh more than 3-4lbs and for some smaller dimensioned large sets, this can be nice as the medium and large priority boxes are around $10. Only use this though if you are going to ship something around 2000 miles or more as the shipping prices would be about $12 or over. If you are shipping something like a poly-bag that weighs less than 13 ounces, ship USPS first class mail. The others don't offer cheaper rates for small items bigger than a letter, but USPS does and its really cheap. Where FEDEX and UPS will cost you around $3-4 for a poly-bag, USPS will be in the sub $2 range. USPS priority is not guaranteed 2-3 days, but in my experience they meet this about 95% of the time or more, so don't let it factor into your considerations too much. If you are shipping with Ebay, check FEDEX prices as they get that nice 12% discount we talked about. Always make sure you print and ship online as the carriers, especially USPS, offer cheaper online prices to keep foot traffic out of the branches. Though UPS is expensive, a lot of larger companies have big deals with them. At my office, we can ship with UPS for almost half price. This is available to all employees for personal use. Final Verdict
      FEDEX gets the nod as the best shipping company. If you want to ship without insurance and are shipping something 3lbs or under, you can use USPS. Otherwise, if you want to factor in reliability, customer service, and the price for add-ons, FEDEX is the clear winner.
      Does this change any of your opinions? Do any of your experiences contradict mine?
      Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
       
    • Fcbarcelona101
      In the LEGO investing world, the CITY theme is one of the least talked about and somewhat ignored by most investors. Other than the trains, it seems a lot of people simply don’t pay enough attention to the theme, maybe because there are a lot of re-released sets, mostly targeted to kids or its very generic nature. Having said that, the theme is a pretty good performer overall, with a CAGR of around 13.00%, above the average LEGO set/theme, and is probably the only theme you can keep constantly expanding and recreate a very complete LEGO city. I recommend you to look into the theme and try to learn a little bit more about it, as with any investment, diversification is key.
      After that short introduction, my main purpose with this article is to showcase one of the best performer sub-themes of LEGO CITY, the airport/plane themed sets. No city will ever be complete until there is a functional airport that serves commercial and private entities, and LEGO fans of all ages know this very well. Even more, planes in general are one of the most successful LEGO investments you can make, as a previous article in the Evaluation Corner explains, given their popularity with people of all ages.
      Something else CITY airport themed sets have going for them is the fact that, unlike fire or police stations, you can keep expanding airports as long as you would like, as that is usually how real world airports work. I am not saying that you can’t purchase two different CITY fire stations and have a really large one, but I think you will agree that one is usually enough, as they are very similar. On the other hand, by purchasing several of the airport sets you can expand your airport, getting more terminals and of course adding several planes, it just looks more realistic in my opinion.
      Before we go into the specifics, let’s take a look at the overall statistics of the Airport sub-theme. First of all, I selected the 9 sets that have already been retired on the airport sub-theme (and a couple really similar ones from the cargo sub theme) from Brickpicker’s price guide to calculate the numbers, so the upcoming sets to be released later this year were not included. Based on that information, we can see that the average CAGR of this sub-theme is around 20.22 %, a very high number well above the average LEGO theme. In fact, if we took this number and placed the whole airport sub-theme into Brickpicker’s theme ranking, it would make the Top 15, above Harry Potter, Sculptures and some other popular ones.
      Let’s now take a look at individual (Retired) sets, including some promotional ones as well:
      - 3182 Airport


      Comments: This set is the largest one produced to date on the Airport sub-theme, with 703 pieces. A must have to any city, this set is really detailed and comes with a really cool plane, so you are basically getting most of the things you need to start building your international airport. The plane can be opened and played with inside, and there is even a nice baggage cart to take the bags out of it.
      Investment wise, this set has done outstandingly well. The airport retired only by the end of last year, and while in November it had a Market Value of around $ 106, to get one now it will cost you almost $ 150. That’s an almost 50 % change over retail in just a few months.
      - 7894 Airport


      Comments: Very different in appearance to the newer version, but still almost the same when it comes to size and piece count. As 3182, the set also included a plane, but its main appeal, in my opinion, is the inclusion of the jetway that is not present in any other airport themed set and is an extremely necessary section. As I said before, these differences between the main two airport terminal sets really allow for anyone to buy several copies and build them together while still adding some realism to their city.
      As its younger sibling, this set has appreciated nicely since it retired a few years back, with a CAGR of close to 10 % at this point and a market value of over $ 150. It seems that sealed copies of this set are somewhat hard to find, and the only ones currently listed on eBay ask for almost $ 300!
      - 7734 Cargo Plane


      Comments: This is a really cool plane that used to be the only cargo plane you could buy to add to your airport, something that will change with some of the upcoming sets. Not being the traditional passenger plane, this set is the one that has appreciated the best at this point in the airport sub-theme with a CAGR of almost 40 % and currently selling for over $ 200. The set appears to have stabilized a while ago, but we will have to see how the market reacts to the new Cargo Terminal that is going to be released later in the year. Still, given that this plane is so much different from the newer one, propellers vs. jet engines, and that people will likely prefer to add some variety to their airport, I don’t see this set being hurt too much.
      -7893 Passenger Plane


      Comments: The largest passenger plane released and the only one with four jet engines has also been an investment powerhouse over the years. The set has been retired for almost five full years and still presents a CAGR of over 20 %, with a current market value of around $ 160, translated to a 300% change over retail. Considering that the set originally retailed for $ 40, this has proven to be one of the best plane sets investment wise released under the CITY theme.
      - 7733 Truck and Forklift


      Comments: Not exclusively an airport themed set, but one that fits nicely into the category now that the new Cargo Terminal themed sets are coming out, including a remake of this very same truck. The 7733 set has appreciated nicely to over the past few years, and considering it was retired some time by the end of 2009 and beginning of 2010, its almost 30 % CAGR demonstrates a great performance. The set itself is very interesting, and we can hope that the new version is as popular as this one has been so far. For a set with a MSRP of only $ 25.00 there are very few listings for it in MISB condition on eBay, and the ones currently available ask for almost double the price guide’s value, so apparently the set went under the radar of most investors at the time.
      - 3181 Passenger Plane


      Comments: One of the smaller planes released, this set was just retired around October of last year. There is not much to this set other than the plane and a small tow truck, but in my opinion it serves it purpose and allows for a more realistic airport, with planes of different design and sizes. As far as growth, this one has gone up somewhat slowly, but with some CITY sets that’s usually the way they work, most of them just don’t shoot up quickly in value, but rather have slow but steady movements. So far, it has a CAGR of around 8 % and sells for $ 50, but look for it to continue moving up and reach maybe $ 70 by the end of the year.
      - 3222 Helicopter and Limousine


      Comments: This little set is also one of the top performers in the list, since it was a Walmart exclusive and only lasted around four months on the shelves, factors that usually lead to abnormal returns in most sets. With an original retail of $ 30, the Helicopter and Limousine is currently selling for almost three times retail, and from the current listings on eBay it should continue to go up in the coming months.
      - 7891 Airport Fire Truck


      Comments: There is always need for an emergency vehicle at the airport, just in case one of the planes has a little accident while landing or taking off. This is the set that fills that gap and is actually one of the older ones present in the list. There is really not much to the set other than being a yellow fire truck, but it has done reasonable well in the secondary market with a CAGR of more than 14 %, more than doubling in value.
      - 3178 Seaplane


      Comments: Once you start getting into the smaller sets, the only way to make a decent amount of profit is either by moving a lot of them or by picking the ones that just explode in value. This little Seaplane falls into the first category, since with a CAGR of around 11% it has only gone up less than $ 5.00, and the fact that it was available for a lot more than two years does not help either. Still, this set was just retired at the end of last year, so there is plenty of time for it to grow.
      Growth of sets with less than 100 pieces

      Growth of promotional sets

      The sets above complete the whole list of sets under the Airport theme, with the smallest sets that have less than 100 pieces and all of the promotional sets that were given out in some way or the other. As you would expect, some of this hard to find promotional sets have become very valuable, especially the 2928 that was only given as a promotion with a partnership with some major airlines.
      Now that we have examined some of the past sets in the airport sub-theme, is worth mentioning that there are no more currently for sale in stores, but that will be changing in a couple months when LEGO releases for of its 2013 CITY set. In my opinion, you would be wise in taking a look into them and maybe deciding to invest in at least a couple in a way to diversify your Brickfolio. Even more I think that from the historical performance of this sub-theme, you really should not be disappointed. I will list the upcoming sets next.
      60022 Cargo Terminal: This is in my opinion the most promising set of the ones to be released later in 2013. From the past performance of the only Cargo Plane, I would expect this set to be a similar performer in the secondary market, and for some reason it is my belief that a lot of investors will not pay too much attention to it in the end. You better be on the other side of the aisle!
      60021 Cargo Heliplane: Very cool looking aircraft again focused more in cargo transportation than passengers. There is not that much information about this set at the time, but it does look to be a very solid investment choice, especially since it is another Cargo focused plane and not really a plane you get to see that often.
      60020 Cargo Truck: If you remember from an earlier section of our article, we examined an extremely similar set: 7733 Truck and Forklift. This is almost the exact same set released again under a different name and, if all goes the way I think, could very easily recreate the same growth trend of its predecessor. It is not a fancy or really remarkable set, so I think investors will once again miss on the chance and not stock up on this one, something some may regret later!
      60019 Stunt Plane: This is probably going to be the smallest of the 2013 CITY airport sets, but at the same time is also a very unique one. A stunt plane could prove to be very popular, but there is really not much information from previous sets that can help us determine how it might do in the future.
      And that’s it as far as LEGO CITY airport sets are concerned. I really hope this article will bring some of the investors who haven’t though too much about CITY as an investment to maybe research it a little bit more and see that there are actually some really nice returns in several different sets. Also, more specifically in the airport sub-theme, you see that there are a lot of really great performers, so if you want to start investing in CITY and already have some of the trains, your next best bet might be investing in planes and airports!
      Thanks for reading.
       
    • matt1147
      Disclaimer: All references to tax law refer to US tax law under the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Posts are my thoughts only and should not be taken as authoritative statements of the law. I once held a CPA certification, but it is no longer active. Please do your own research and consult a licensed professional for all legal, tax, and accounting matters.
      It's been said that there are only two certainties in life: death and taxes.
      The tax implications from selling your LEGO can vary depending on many factors. According to the IRS, whenever profit is made on a transaction, the result is taxable income. Realistically speaking, since it is usually up to the seller to self-report the taxable income, there are hundreds of thousands of transactions every day that "fall under the tax radar." Selling a few sets on eBay may keep you under the radar for a while, but the more transactions you do and the more money you make will speed up the inevitability that sooner or later, you will have to pay taxes on your profits. (Note: the biggest exception to self-reporting is If you make more than $600 in a year from any one source, you may get a "1099-MISC" from that source which reports your income to the IRS.)

      So how is my LEGO income taxed?
      Because the US tax code is so vast, there are a number of different ways your LEGO income could be taxed. In my experience, there are three main categories: hobby, investment, and business.
      If your LEGO activity is a hobby, it means you have no intent on making a profit and can only deduct expenses up to any income. This classification is not actually desirable from a tax perspective and the IRS uses it to re-class "business losses" that some taxpayers use to offset other income.
      Most of us that are using the "buy and hold" technique would classify our LEGO as an investment....and the IRS would agree. According to IRS Topic 409, collectibles are considered a "capital asset" for tax purposes. Think of your LEGO as in the same category as artwork, coins, stamps, or any other collectible that may hold value. So what does this mean to your LEGO profits? It means that the tax you owe depends on how long you owned the product. If you sell LEGO that you held for less than 1 year, then it is considered a short-term capital gain, it is taxed at your normal income tax rate (up to 39.6%), and you can only net your short-term capital losses. If you had owned that same LEGO for more than 1 year, then the profit is a long-term capital gain, taxed at a maximum of 28%, and can be netted against any long-term or short term capital losses. Furthermore, you can deduct up to $1500 in net capital losses per year ($3,000 if filing jointly with spouse) against your normal income and can be carried forward to future years. So long-term classification is better from a tax perspective, but you cannot deduct property held for personal use - it has to be an investment. Capital gains and losses are reported on Schedule D and reported on an individual tax return (1040).
      Lastly, those that engage in LEGO buying and selling with an intent to make profit may classify their activity as a business. This classification has pros and cons. Pros include the ability to "write off" all expenses related to your activities and even report a tax loss on your tax return (offsetting your other income). The cons are mostly twofold: 1) many, many more documentation requirements and 2) paying self-employment taxes (currently 15.3%) on net income. Business income is reported on Schedule C of the 1040 return unless you've registered as a partnership, LLC, or Corporation.
      There is no cut and dried rule regarding whether your activity would be viewed by the IRS as a business or not, but generally speaking, they look at how much time you put in, the manner in which you carry out the activity, and your past history of profits and losses. In other words, if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and walks like a duck....it's probably a duck. If you run a website or store, have business cards, and turn a monthly profit...chances are your LEGO activity is a business. If you buy and hold some sets to sell in future years...chances are it's an investment. Real Estate investors/flippers must also wrestle with these issues.

      Do I really have to report my LEGO income?
      One of the most common questions with selling stuff second-hand is "do I have to pay taxes?" Well, the answer is "yes" according to the law. But in reality, many people don't report their second-hand or online sales. My gut tells me that there are plenty of people making a large amount of money that goes unreported. However, if the IRS ever comes a-knocking in the form of an audit, those people will end up owing a lot of money. Similar to the "LEGO S@H Blacklist" conversation, seemingly the best way to stay under their radar is to limit your transactions. Regardless, every LEGO investor should have a plan in mind when starting off as to what type of investor they will be and how to handle their tax responsibilities.
      I hope this post has been insightful. I hope to post more blogs about the business side of LEGO - including how to start a LEGO business and different accounting and budgeting tips. I look forward to hearing from anyone who already runs their LEGO activity as a business. /Matt
    • Quacs
      The talk of a Lego "bubble" has been discussed ad nauseum on this site, yet there is a side I thought about yesterday that hasn't been touched on yet. With thirty one themes (per Lego S@H list), TLG's product line is monstrous so it's plausible to foresee a certain segment of the Lego product line undergo significant devaluation sometime in the not-so-distant future.
      To figure out if any sectors are at risk, let's define what a bubble is first. The classic definition of an economic bubble condition is when a product sells for significantly more than its intrinsic value. While this bubble definition is extremely broad, it gives us one nugget to consider: the concept of intrinsic value. Finding a lego brick's intrinsic value is actually quite simple and easily measured: figure out what people pay for a commoditized version of the product. For Lego bricks, Bricklink is a great resource for MOCers to purchase any number of thousands of bricks at competitive prices. These prices should set the basis to measure the intrinsic value of the set. To do this, we add up the price for each piece a set comes with, throw in the instructions, and throw in the box value, and voila - your replacement cost of materials becomes your measure of Intrinsic value". While this doesn't include the value of the time to purchase the pieces, or any number of other hidden costs. we can still use the cost of materials as a proxy for "intrinsic value".

      Now that we have a rpugh approximation of the intrinsic value of a set, it can be compared to an average sold price for the set to see if there's a significant discrepancy between the two. In a bubble condition affecting all Lego products, we would expect to see a huge disparity in value between the part-out price and the BP new set value across a majority of themes and models. Alas, when making this comparison for random sets, we see there are literally thousands of sets where the sum of the parts is greater than the value of the model, both retired and unretired. Here are some examples I selected prior to knowing the part out and BP new set values:
      Set Name - Part-Out Value - BP New Set Value
      Portal of Atlantis - $130.78 - $65.61
      Cafe Corner - $874.70 - $978.60
      Green Grocer - $642.66 - $674.04
      An Unexpected Gathering - $134.77 - $48.44
      As I said, there thousands more, so based upon this analysis we can assume that there's no bubble Lego-wide at this point in time. Yet, there is one specific segment of the Lego product line where determining intrinsic value is extremely difficult: minifigures. Assessing the intrinsic value of a minifigure based on the sum of the part values doesn't make sense since the relatively small number of parts renders this analysis meaningless.
      When delving deeper into the value of minifigures, it would stand to reason that a fig's value is based upon some combination of desirability and scarcity. Because minifigures are typically collected rather than "consumed" like the majority of Lego sets, it's easy to draw a parallel between minifigure collecting and baseball/beanie baby collecting. Typically, minifigures are worth what collectors will pay to add them to their collections similar to Joe Schmoe who buys a Honus Wagner tobacco card, or Peanut the Royal Blue Elephant. While army MOCers that require a large number of figs to complete their MOC provide an exception to the rule, most minifigs purchased separately are bought as collectibles. After seeing some incredible prices collectors are paying for ComicCon exclusive figures and the elusive Mr. Gold, it appears there's a real possibility of a minifigure bubble.

      Honus Wagner - proof that collectible values are based more on scarcity than desirability...
      How do we determine if there is a threat of a minifigure bubble? Let's take a look at the values of a cross section of specific minifigures:
      Exclusives:
      Bizarro (ComicCon 2012) - $237.50
      Mr. Gold - $676.51
      Non-Exclusives:
      CMF Series 1: Zombie - $19.30
      CMF Series 1: Forestman - $1.30
      Black Falcon - Black Legs with Red Hips, Black Chin-Guard: $6.67
      Farmer - Green Overalls, Blue Cap - $2.35
      Kai, Kimono - $5.56
      Voldemort, White Head - $4.83
      This list highlights a significant characteristic of the Lego minifigure market: while Exclusive minifigures typically sport the "insane" values, non-exclusives have a much harder time posting crazy profits that are multiple factors above the value of an average minifig. This actually mirrors the baseball card market - "commons" don't have much value above the average card price, while exclusives, or in this case rare vintage cards, have tremendous value. The baseball card market has already gone through a bubble cycle, and today its characteristics loosely match the minifigure market. In fact, most collectible markets have this same structure - commons sell for a small, "average" price equivalent to the "intrinsic value", while exclusive pieces sell for significantly more. It's only when the value of exclusive figs begin to raise the prices of the commons that a true bubble condition occurs. For Lego minifigs, I don't see this happening anytime soon.  

      If demand suddenly craters for Lego products, you will see the entire secondary market suffer (including minifigs and retired sets), yet this would take an unprecedented shock to the system. More likely, a gradual erosion of popularity would occur over time if Lego stopped making sets that are desirable to their core children market. A final look at the baseball card market shows their "exclusives" are as popular as ever: on April 6 of this year, a Honus Wagner T206 sold for $2.1 Million, an unprecedented sum for this card. I would expect Lego minifigs to follow suit.
       

       
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      As I have said in the last two installments of this, I have really enjoyed doing these as I entertain the possibility of me being creative enough to come up with a good Lego idea. Today I decided to do another movie – in fact one of the most box-office popular movies of all time: independence Day.
      The reasons I chose this movie? Well, besides it being very popular and quotable, any movie with aliens and spaceships are going to have tons of good ideas for Lego sets. Everyone loves aliens and spaceships; this is what the whole Star Wars theme is built off of!
      So, without further rambling, I give you my sets from the movie Independence Day:
      The Welcome Wagon 1

      This ship doesn't have a huge part in the movie. If you remember, this was the helicopter that was being recorded and broadcast on live TV from that was covered in lights. They were trying to communicate to the aliens through the use of visual stimulus. That vehicle did not last very long at all as the Aliens abruptly told them "Hi!" back... with an explosion.
      So why this helicopter? First of all, it is because it's a really unique helicopter and is a very iconic scene in the movie. This was the first time the aliens really showed any bit of malice at all towards the people of Earth. Secondly, Lego planes and vehicles have been very popular and this one is unique enough that it could be popular as a change of pace from all the others.
      In my eyes, it would be a smaller set, around 300 pieces or so. Since Lego has started getting into a few bricks that light up in the Monster Fighters line, this one would utilize that as well. When turned on, the lights would flash from the helicopter so that it could communicate with any aliens in front of it. It would come with two minifigures – The pilot and the welcoming officer with the light controls.
      F/A -18 Hornet

      This jet is one of the ones that was featured in the beginning of the battle between Earth and the Aliens. Will Smith and his team of fighter pilots were flying these. These jets were very memorable in the movie; they really stood no chance at all against the enemy aircraft and were overrun pretty quickly. If you remember, everyone was pretty much taken down except for Will Smith.
      This jet would be a very popular vehicle among people who liked the movie and people who collect Lego vehicles. There are not near as many Jets as airplanes and helicopter's in the Lego line up. As well, the F/A 18 Hornet is a very popular Jet to people who like military aircraft. It is one of my favorites.
      To really make this set sell to everyone, it could come with 4 flick missiles for the 4 missiles each of the jets had in the movie. It would also come with an ejection seat along with a parachute that would pop out once the pilot had been ejected. Since only one person was flying these jets in the movie, it would only come with one minifigure, but hey, it would be Will Smith. Who needs more than that?

      Alien Fighter Craft

      This was an obvious one to have in the lineup. I always loved this vehicle in the movie because, even though it seemed like a take on a flying saucer, it was so much more sophisticated. Because of it's size and aerodynamics, it could seemingly change direction at will and was incredibly fast. Also, who doesn't want to fly a plane that is protected by a seemingly invincible shield (Unless you run into a mountain or Jeff Goldblum gives you a computer virus)?
      This ship itself would be the one that was hidden inside Area 51 for the last 20 years. The set would include two flick missiles on the side of it for the Alien's artillery, but they would be made differently as to look more advanced than the Earth's puny current flick missile technology.
      The cabin of the aircraft would also open up so that characters could fit inside. The aircraft controls would also be included for great detail inside the ship along with a sign that mistakenly had the up and down direction switched (We need to work on our communication!). This would be a better minifigure set coming with:
      Captain Steven Hiller (Will Smith) David Levenson (Jeff Goldblum) Dr. Brackish Okun An Alien Having this set and the Jet set would provide hours of fun and entertainment.
      Area 51

      Any big time conspiracy theorists out here? This one would really appeal to everyone. The set would really be for use with the above set, but I thought it would be cool to have I be separate since it is a pretty big place not only in the movie, but in historical pop culture.
      This set would mainly be an open modular set with a walkway leading into the docking room for the Alien Space craft. Along the way, there would be classified and “sterile” areas for scientists to work on with Computers and lab machines.
      The docking area itself would include a landing area for the alien ship so that it could be safely docked inside the area. Behind the docking area there would be double doors so that when the ship wants to leave, they could open allowing the ship to fly out to save our Earth (assuming the alien is not in it).
      This set could also include the doctor's surgery area so that they can cut open the alien to see what's inside. This set would include:
      Dr. Brackish Okun Two other unlucky surgeons An Alien whose exoskeleton pops open like in the movie 2 other robed scientists who are working around area 51 Hopefully, this set would appeal to all the conspiracy theorists out there as well as people who loved the movie!
      Check-Mate

      If you watched this movie in theaters when it came out, you knew this was the part you had really been waiting for. As things get more and more nervous, David Levenson has his large countdown clock on his laptop which indicates that something bad will happen when it turns to all zeros, or “check-mate” as he dubs it.
      In the movie, though this wasn't the first building to go, this was the one that really sticks out in people's minds because of what the White House symbolizes to America. Also, because the movie somewhat centers around the President (Bill Pullman), this is what was really signifying the attack on him as a leader and his personal hate for the Aliens.
      The set would include the large Alien ship along with opening doors for the light-beam attack they use to destroy the cities. Once these doors opened, another light brick would be inserted so that it could be shown down onto any unsuspecting Lego buildings someone decided to destroy. The White House would be a small model, like the current architecture set. In my eyes, it could be engineered so that once put together, something could be pulled or pressed by the person playing with it to make it fall apart (at least into a couple of large pieces to simulate an explosion).
      I would also include a stand system with the set so that it could sit upright with the Alien ship hovering over the White House about to open it's major attack for those of us who would want to display it. Maybe even give it a display placard like the UCS Star Wars sets.
      Minifigures would include:
      The President (Bill Pullman) David Levenson Constance Spano (Margaret Colin) An Alien for good measure The MotherShip

      Though the mother-ship wasn't shown a ton during the movie and eventually meets it end by nuclear warfare, it is a really nice looking ship. It is very comparable to some of the larger Star Wars ships like the Super Star Destroyer. Because of this, I think it would make a great 4000 piece set. It could be very detailed and even include a docking area for the smaller versions of the ships in the above sets. It could even be made into more of a play-set like the Death Star 10188.
      This set would be really great to have this one as well if you were doing some fleet building with the other alien ships as this was the one that controlled them all. There could be a lot of different alien minifigures that could come with this set as well to really fill out the whole theme as play-sets. Minifigures would include:
      David Levenson Captain Stephen Hiller 10 Aliens (or really as many as they will give us! They were starting an invasion, remember?) Queen Alien The Alien Bust

      I am not going to lie, I am a sucker for the Lego busts. I love models and things of that nature, so sets that are statuesque really make me want to open my wallet. The Alien form Independence day is very unique. As we heard the doctor say, it has the outer harder biochemical skeleton that protects the soft inner tissue. It also has 8 tentacle/arms protruding from it's body. It honestly kind of reminds me of General Grievous a little bit:

      This would be the UCS set that came with a placard in my eyes. It is a very recognizable alien and different form most other sci-fi movies out there (It is somewhat close to Alien, but it is easy to tell the difference between the long double mouth of Alien himself.)
      What do you all think? A great theme, or a total dud? They would at least sell one of them, that's for sure!
      Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      I run into this issue through my Lego collecting and investing constantly. I really love the set I just got and want to open it, but am I making a mistake by popping open that seal and opening all the bags inside? What if it becomes a big time seller and I decide I don't want it anymore, am I going to lose money?
      An even tougher conundrum comes up when I get a set for way less than retail. And the set is MISB. I paid the same amount for it that I would for a used set, so does it make any difference if I go ahead and open it?
      The answer is “It depends on what you can live with”. Let's examine things a little bit.
      First off, let's examine a situation where you just got a brand new set for investing and looking at it, you think it is really cool and you want to build it. What are the issues with doing so:
      How well will this set do? - If this set becomes a huge money maker, the gap between the worth of a new and used set gets larger and larger. So one day, could this set be worth double or triple by being in the box? Could you get a used set/damaged or missing box set for cheaper? - If you could, then you would be paying less money to open that set up and the other you would still have to invest in. This way you saved some money now and you still won't regret opening anything. The downside is, you still had to purchase the second set which means more money now. Are you sure how long you are going to keep it? - This is something that really intrigues me. Everyday surfing Ebay I see tons of used sets being sold by people that most likely bought them new and took really good care of them. Why are they selling them? Did they lose interest? Do they need the money? Before you open a set, unfortunately you have to think about things like this because a set is worth more new than used. What if I got the set for the same price as a used set? - You may think there is no downside to going ahead and opening it up to build. If you bought another, it would cost the same amount so technically you aren't out any money. These are really tough questions, much tougher than just ripping the seal off those new sets. But to get the most out of your Lego investment and Lego collection these must be asked. So let's examine each carefully.
      How well will this set do?
      This is obviously a question that no one can answer correctly right off the bat. But we can definitely take our Lego experiences and use this site to help predict properly what sets will do. Why does this matter? Well, think about someone who bought an Atlantis set and wanted to open it. If they did, they lost absolutely nothing. However, if someone had a UCS Millennium Falcon MISB and opened it, they may have lost $900 if they tried to sell it later.
      Let's look at a little bit of data to get a good picture of this. I am going to categorize sets a few different ways just so that we see potential loss based on opening the set. Obviously there are many more investment “profiles” but this gives you a good idea of the loss associated with opening different types of sets.
      Spider-Man potential (Solid about 15% CAGR potential)
      Taking all the new and used sets in the line and comparing the values, we see that you lose about 65% of the value by opening the sets.
      Harry Potter (recent) Line Potential (High potential, over 20% CAGR)
      I used the last line of Harry Potter sets which have all seen about 15-30% CAGR. Currently, comparing the new price with the used price, on average you lose about 32% of the set's value by selling it used.
      SW UCS potential (Only retired sets) (Legendary potential - Lego investing gold)
      Using all the retired UCS sets in the line, you will lose 43% of the value by opening the set.
      So what does that tell us? Well it tells us that, depending on the ceiling of the set, by opening it you can lose somewhere from 30-60% of the sets value. I think this goes up as the sets get older. The Spider-man sets are all very old, so finding a new one becomes rarer and rarer. That makes it's price go up while the used stays the same. This is becoming the same with the older UCS SW sets as well like the X-wing and Tie Interceptor which used price was worth less than 50% of the new price. For the recent Harry Potter sets, this wasn't as bad because there are still plenty of these sets around.
      Obviously all this is dependent on the price. If you are talking about a $20 set and you think it's 5 year ceiling is $50, then you only stand to lose about $15 if you feel like it will show gain like the Harry Potter sets. At worst, if it lost 65% of it's value, you are looking at a $35 loss. Chances are, the longer you wait, the more money you will be losing.
      But, if you get a set that is $300 and you feel its ceiling is $1500, if you lose 30%, that is already a $450 loss. For the 10179 millennium falcon, you have a loss of about $900 dollars. This is definitely way more substantial. Ask someone who paid $500 for an MISB 10179 and sold it as used several years later if they wished they had just left it in the box.
      Could you get a used set/damaged or missing box set for cheaper?
      This is a very important piece of your decision to open a set. If you paid $100 for a set and open it, but you could have gotten the same set opened for $30 cheaper, then you wasted $30. There are definitely some people who just like opening a fresh, new set, but is it really worth losing the money? Every time I think about opening a set, I start to look around for a used set.
      You have to remember, assuming you keep your investing and entertainment/collecting budget separate, the moment you open this set, the money is transferring from your investment budget to your entertainment budget. If you move that over and the set you just opened becomes a huge gainer, that is a lot of money you just lost from your investment capital. However, if you bought a second one for cheaper to open, you just took a slight bit out of your entertainment budget and your investment budget is intact.
      This all depends on what you can live with later on as well. Maybe you won't really care that you opened the set and won't think about the money you could have lost. I have that problem; I can't deal with the fact I may have lost money. If you do, you will feel much better about putting together a used set with no box over opening up a brand new one.
      Are you sure how long you are going to keep it?
      This is something no one really knows but you – and you probably don't even know. All of us have hobbies that stick with us for most of our lives, and we have some that come and go without any warning at all. I know it is a lot easier for me to break those new seals on a set when I am absolutely confident I will never get rid of it. If I know that, the problems with possibly losing money become somewhat moot as I am never going to sell it anyway.
      If you seem to be more of a fleeting personality, opening all these sets may become of big regret to you later. I would use caution and your intelligence here more than anything. If you think this set may be worth 100s of dollars later, make sure you can live with selling it and losing that extra money.
      What if I got the set for the same price as a used set?
      This really becomes tough and I would tell you to, in this case, go with your gut. For me, because I treat my budgets separately, I always buy a used set to put together because I look at everything in investments and return on investment. The new set I have in my hands is worth more than a used set I buy for the same price, even if I spent the same amount on them.
      Again, it comes back to what you can live with. Can you live with opening a brand new set and thinking about how much you might have lost by doing it? I can't, which is why I put those inexpensive new sets away and go after used sets.
      So all we have talked about is how bad it can be to open a new set. How do you benefit from opening a new set instead of a used set? Well, though these are minor details, they do make a difference:
      New sets means new pieces. They will most likely be in better shape and will not have any wear. You do not know what the person before you did with the set they had, whether they say it was a display and smoke-free or not. The stickers haven't been applied. You may get someone's set who didn't really try to apply the stickers correctly. If you have OCD, this is seriously going to bother you. If the used set is assembled, it is hard to immediately tell all the pieces are there. If the set is already assembled, some can't bring themselves to break it down and rebuild it so they lose the building experience. If you open it and take care of everything, it would possibly be in a better “used” shape then if you bought it already used. This could bridge the price gap. This is a lot of stuff to think about and there is no definitive answer. I just wanted to offer some of my thoughts on the subject so that people could get a perspective on the matter, especially if you tend to open a lot of new sets. How do you all feel? Do you open your sets new, or buy all opened sets to build?
      Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
       
    • Scissorino
      Last day of work tomorrow. Making a Lego gift for a colleague. Lego out on living room floor. Wife is painting nails. I have to do toes because she's 35 weeks pregnant (yeah, I'm committed...). I'm clumsy. I knock the remover over. It pools around some Lego that I left on the floor. The Lego is damaged because Acetone eats Lego.
      Moral of the story: Don't spill nail polish remover on your Lego
      Lesson of the story: If you do want your Lego to be stuck together (I did the unthinkable and glued together a custom minifigure this evening as part of the gift) then use some Nail Polish Remover or anything with Acetone in it.
       
    • MartinP
      The 7978 Angler Attack is a small set. The set has 200 pieces, with a retail price of $19.99 USD. This makes the Price Per Piece (PPP) ten cents per piece. Some times the PPP ratio is not accurate, so here is the Price Per Gram (PPG) ratio. The set has a weight of 0.32 kg, which is 320 grams. Since there is 200 pieces in the set, the PPG ratio is $0.0625 USD per gram.
      The set has two minifigures (Jeff Fisher and Barracuda Guardian), one of which is a rare minifigure, Jeff Fisher. The set also included a camera, a trident, a deep sea jet with a harpoon and grabbing claws, and the angler fish with moving fins and tail.
      The set was released in late 2010/early 2011 and the set was retired in late 2011. The set was available on the primary market for about a year. Some stores may have had the set longer due to higher prices which would have made it available longer in the primary market, but not for long.
      The 7978 Angler Attack is the best set for investing from the Atlantis theme. Although the Atlantis theme has overall Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of -2.67%, this set has a better CAGR. The set has a CAGR of 16.61%. That is 19.28% above the overall CAGR for the Atlantis theme. Let's look at some simple charts showing the sold listings and the sales trends for the new sets over the past year. Sold Listings:
      June 2012: 6 July 2012: 13 August 2012: 6 September 2012: 9 October 2012: 3 November 2012: 5 December 2012: 11 January 2013: 6 February 2013: 5 March 2013: 7 April 2013: 4 May 2013: 5 Over the past year, there has been eighty (80) 7978 Angler Attack sets sold. This means the average sets sold new per month is about seven (7) sets. All this data shows that there is interest in the set, thus making it a potential investment. What makes it a worthy investment is if people are willing to pay more for the same set. Here is another chart chowing the sales trend for the new sets sold over the past years.
      Sales Trend:
      June 2012: $22.35 USD July 2012: $20.68 USD August 2012: $21.56 USD September 2012: $23.39 USD October 2012: $23.41 USD November 2012: $24.12 USD December 2012: $25.35 USD January 2013: $25.53 USD February 2013: $25.06 USD March 2013: $25.60 USD April 2013: $27.88 USD May 2013: $27.18 USD Over the past year, the set has increased in $4.83 USD in value. Over this year the Return On Investment (ROI) is 24.16% for this year. The ROI for the set on its retail value is 35.97%. These are both very good ROI. From this chart, the set has been growing in value as time goes on. The average increase per month for this set is forty cents ($0.40 USD). I can see this set going in the price range of $30-$40 USD in the future.
      My recommendation is to buy the set, but I would buy the set lower than what it is valued at. Even though the set is a good investment, you should always be prepared for the value to go down. Hopefully that will not happen, but it is always possible. The set has a good CAGR that is above the average CAGR for the Atlantis theme. The set also has a high ROI for this year at nearly 25%. From all this information, I would buy this set myself to invest in.
      Thanks for reading!
       


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