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    Brickpicker blog articles on LEGO investing, news, reviews, evaluations, discounts and more...
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    • Alcarin
      Some of the older and more active members probably read my old LEGO predictions about LEGO LOTR wave 1.
      For the rest I will re-quote it for easier re-evaluation....
      Posted 08 March 2013 - 07:43 AM

      Now let us look on the current standings:
      RETIRED 9469-1: Gandalf Arrives -17.78%
      9470-1: Shelob Attacks -30.87%
      9471-1: Uruk-Hai Army -22.94%
      RETIRED 9472-1: Attack On Weathertop -14.75%
      9473-1: The Mines of Moria -36.14%
      9474-1: The Battle Of Helm's Deep -19.02%
      RETIRED 9476-1: The Orc Forge +52.46%
      ........................................................................................................................................................................................................
      RETIRED 9469-1: Gandalf Arrives -17.78%
      Retail Price: US: $ 12.99
      Comment:
      So far the item (as expected) did not pick up at all. I guess my double retail was way over the board.
      re-evaluated:
      The value has been dropping for 3 consecutive months.Am not expecting this to begin green color trends for 4-6 months
      Estimation of value approximately 1-1.5 years after EOL: 20$ max
      Alcarin's suggestion: Worth picking up, but only if you can find it below 9$
      .......................................................................................................................................................................................................
      ........................................................................................................................................................................................................
      RETIRED 9472-1: Attack On Weathertop -14.75%
      Retail Price: US: $ 59.99
      Comment:
      The item is showing positive trends and might be wise to pick it afterall (Guess I was wrong in my predictions).
      re-evaluated:
      Estimation of value approximately 1-1.5 years after EOL: 100$
      Alcarin's suggestion: Worth picking up for anything below 50$, maybe even below 60$, if you plan to hold for 1-2 years
      this one might burn high and light with high ROI as some Nazguls did in the movie!
      ........................................................................................................................................................................................................
      ........................................................................................................................................................................................................
      RETIRED 9476-1: The Orc Forge +52.46%
      Retail Price: US: $ 39.99
      Comment:
      Item showing expected growth, if you can pick it up for retail or even less, you should not hesitate. In May Orc Forge skyrocketed for 9$ worth of growth which is like 25% of its initial retail value.
      re-evaluated:
      Estimation of value approximately 1-1.5 years after EOL: 120-140$
      Alcarin's suggestion: Worth picking up for anything below 50$ Lurtz is getting armed and ready to fight the prices even higher!

      ........................................................................................................................................................................................................
      ........................................................................................................................................................................................................
      This is regarding re-evaluation of now retired sets based on a few months data I checked out. Must say that Weathertop ''success'' did slightly surprise me, yet the sets growth above retail is still something that will take time. As expected the biggest growth (and the only) above retail shows the exclusive Orc Forge set, which lingered slightly above retail value for majority of its shelf time as an exclusive.
      Stay tuned for next blog in the following days when I will re-evaluate still available sets of line 2 and ''detailed'' predictions of wave 2.
    • Darth Lego
      I will be reviewing the Brickmania M1A1 75MM Howitzer on M8 Carriage and the Heavy Mortar with Brickarms Shell.
      These sets are made by Brickmania.com and they are LEGO customs. They can be discontinued and re-released at anytime so I wouldn't invest in these kits.
      They are high quality and well-built in my opinion, but not great investments at all.
      M1A1 75MM Howitzer On M8 Carriage

      Name: M1A1 75MM Howitzer on M8 Carriage Number of Pieces: 41 LEGO elements Number of Minifigures: 0 Cost: $13.00 Price per Piece: $0.31 Price per ounce.: $11.60 Click here to view this kit on Brickmania.com Front of the polybag.

      Picture of the real M1A1 75MM Howitzer.

      The Build
      The build was very easy and it took me about 20 minutes to build. The instructions were easy to following and the pictures were crisp. I believe beginner LEGO builders can build this set with ease. However, the model is pretty fragile so try to handle it with care. The troublesome area for me would be the 2X3 grey piece right under the barrel. Most of the pieces are the newer dark grey pieces with the exception of the tires and the pole piece.
      The Completed Set
      Picture of the completed set.

      Picture of the set being towed by my Brickmania Jeep. (The Jeep or minifigure is not included.)

      As noted in the product description, it is fully poseable and can be "broken down" similar to what would have happened during WW2. (This was done to transport the gun easier through rough terrain.)
      Overall Opinion
      I think the model itself is quite awesome despite the higher price tag and the fragile areas. Speaking of price, some of you maybe did a double take when you first looked at it. It isn't an official LEGO set so it costs more money to assemble all of the parts. Here is a quote from Andrew of The Brothers Brick about the higher cost of the Brickmania kits. (He reviewed some of the sets on his website and the link will take you to the review I got the following quote from. For those who don't know who Dan Siskind is, he is the owner/founder of Brickmania.)
      Now that is out of the way, I think this is great set for WW2 era MOCs and especially for Airborne and U.S. Marine MOCs. (This gun was mainly used by those two type of units.) The ratings below will be out of 10.
      Parts: 7 Nothing rare or special. Playability: 8 Fully posable and easy to display. Building Experience: 7.5 It was very easy, but some parts of the set tend to fall off. Value for Money: 8 Although high in comparison to official LEGO sets, it is on par with price in comparison to other Brickmania kits. Overall: 30.5 out of 40. Overall it is a nice kit and I recommend any WW2 era LEGO fan to get one. Heavy Mortar with Brickarms Shell

      Name: Heavy Mortar with Brickarms Shell Number of Pieces: 9 including the Brickarms shell Number of Minifigures: 0 Cost: $6.00 Price per Piece: $0.66 Price per ounce.: $18.75 Click here to view this kit on Brickmania.com Front of the polybag

      Picture of a U.S. WW2 era heavy mortar.

      The Build
      ​The build was extremely easy as it is very small. (It took me one minute to build.) Most of the pieces are the newer dark grey which is the same color as the M1A1 75MM Howitzer. The best piece of this set is the prototype Brickarms mortar shell which is hand made and only available in this kit.
      The Completed Set
      The completed set with a minifigure holding the Brickarms shell. (The minifigure is not included.)

      Another view of the set. (The minifigure is not included.)

      It looks nice set up and it stands very easily. You can also adjust the angle of the mortar by moving the black antennas.
      Overall Opinion
      It is not that big at all. What really brings the price up on this is the proto handmade mortar shell. By just looking at the pictures almost any LEGO fan can get the pieces and build it for cheaper than $6. Basically if you want the shell then get this. Otherwise just build one using your own parts. This is meant to be used by any nationality WW2 and after so it could fit into a lot of Military MOCs. The rating will be out of ten again.
      Parts: 6.5 Nothing special at all except the handmade/prototype mortar shell. Playability: 7 You can fit the shell partway down the barrel to act out loading it. Building Experience: 9.5 Very quick and easy. Pretty solid kit. Value for Money: 7 Not very great, but the prototype shell makes up for the higher price in my opinion. Overall: 30 out of 40. If you want the mortar shell then get this. Otherwise just use the picture provided and build your own. Here is another version of the mortar. It is the exact same as the one above, but this one includes a custom printed Brickarms crate. It costs $13.
      Click here to view the M1 81MM Mortar Pack.

      I hope you guys/ gals enjoyed these reviews. I will be doing more Brickmania reviews of the following kits below so stay tuned. (Clicking on the link takes you to the Brickmania.com website.) I will also be starting my LEGO Customs article.
      WWB Version of the Jeep
      Click here to view the standard Jeep without the canopy.

      M18 Hellcat Tank Destroyer
      Click here to view the M18 Hellcat Tank Destroyer.

      M4 Sherman
      Click here to view the M4 Sherman.

      Thanks for reading!
      Disclosure: The views and opinions expressed on this blog are purely the blog owner’s. If I claim or appear to be an expert on a certain topic or product or service area, I will only endorse products or services that I believe, based on my expertise, are worthy of such endorsement. Products reviewed are bought by me unless otherwise noted.
    • Grolim
      Looking at CAGR return rates are great over a decent length of time, but for the purposes of shorter more accurate timeframes I feel that metric can be a little blunt.
      CAGR takes the current price and shows you the annual percentage growth rate that starting from purchase price that gets you to there. Typically we use the retail release year as the start point, all the Brickpicker set pages do so. This is fine if you purchased it in that same year but if you bought it the year after or even 2 or 3 years after release looking at the CAGR from release date will be far lower than your real investment return. You can solve that by doing the CAGR calculation yourself and using the year you purchased as the starting point.
      But even if you et the starting year right this doesn’t factor in whether the set was purchased in January of the year or in December, and likewise for the end point. A set purchased in Dec-2011 and measured in Jan-2013 has only just over 1 year of time to be measured but CAGR assigns 2 years.
      Many of us track our purchases closely and record purchase dates for our inventory. If you know the month and price you purchased a set then you can use those to create a much more accurate measure of investment performance for your individual circumstance.
      For this analysis I decided to use CMGR – Compound Monthly Growth Rate. The formula and method is exactly the same as CAGR except you take the start and end points and measure in months and it returns the monthly compounding growth rate. The formula is ((End price / Purchase Price) ^ (1 / months)) – 1.
      e.g. you bought a set in December for $100 and it has a market price in June of $150, so ((150/100)^(1/6)-1 = 6.99% CMGR.
      You can check your result by taking the start point of $100 and multiply it by 1+CMGR 6 times. So $100 x 1.0699 x 1.0699 x 1.0699 x 1.0699 x 1.0699 x 1.0699 = $150
      CMGR is especially useful for investors/resellers who hold stock for a short period of time.
      It also lets you evaluate the book value of the sets you currently hold right up to the latest month. Just take your starting point and measure it against the current market price. You can even account for fees and transaction costs by removing them off the current market price first. That way you have an up to the month accurate representation of the performance of your investment portfolio.
      I can be difficult to transition to CMGR as most people’s minds work in annual percentage terms, and so many of the comparable stats and information we use is based on annual figures. Fear not, you can easily convert your CMGR to a CAGR with this formula:
      CAGR = (CMGR + 1) ^ 12 -1 then divide by 100 to get a percentage
      So in our example our $100 set to $150 in 6 months would actually read as having a CAGR of 50% if you used the normal CAGR calculation because it would assign 1 year of growth even though December to June is only 6 months. To find a more accurate CAGR we can use the CMGR of 6.99% that we found to calculate the following;
      CAGR = (6.99% + 1) ^ 12 – 1
      = 1.0699 ^12 – 1
      = 2.25 – 1
      = 125%
      I hope some of you find a use for CMGR and use it to provide a more accurate picture of performance on both sets you’ve sold and those you are currently keeping in your portfolio.
    • comicblast
      More often than not, resellers and investors of LEGO bricks are builders first, collecting second, and investors last. Not that investing is a terrible thing to do, but the love of LEGO usually comes before the love of money. One of the worst things about collecting and building is the mess.
      A few years back, some relatives came over and saw the LEGO’s piled on the floor, on the former dining room table, and on the chairs. Of course their nieces and nephews loved it, but one of my uncles took me aside and said, “Uhh, sometimes Jordan gets his room all messed up with LEGO’s all over the place. You know what we do? We sort it by color. It makes it a lot easier to find pieces, and we clean everything up too!”. To my 9 year old mind, this was a groundbreaking discovery! I had never thought about organizing my bricks in another fashion besides my set!
      So over the next few weeks, primarily during the boring parts of the State of the Union Address, which encompassed majority of the speech, we sorted through a recently acquired lot of LEGO’s. Though it was backbreaking work to sort through about 40 lbs of LEGO’s, we managed to sort it into small bins that held the following colors:
      2 Bins of gray/black 1 Bin of red/blue 1 Bin of green/yellow 1 bin of white/tan/brown We never really got around to sorting our other LEGO’s not in the lot, it helped a lot when building. Afterwards, not so much. Like most young kids, taking apart is the painful part of building, and yet the inevitable. I started keeping complete structures in the bins along with the loose pieces, which led to the mixing of the colors and bricks. Of course I didn’t mind, and it wasn’t until recently that I decided to organize my bricks a different way: by size and function.
      Here are a few of the steps that I took to sort them into their new categories, as well as throw the MegaBloks and clever fakes that had been mixed in, into a “trash” pile.
      Step 1: Throw ‘Em Together
      Supplies Needed:
      - 1 Large Bin or container, preferably larger than 2 feet in diameter.
      This is probably the most fun part of this laborious task, which is just mixing up all the pieces together. It felt really good to see the mixed together, and to hear the clamoring of plastic on plastic. For this task, I chose a small kiddy pool that my family never good around to throwing away. It is 3 feet in diameter, but only 8 inches deep, perfect for spreading around the bricks to see a lot of them.
      Step 2: Common Ground
      Supplies Needed:
      Your brain. In this step, you will be looking at your pieces, and try to find major “families” amongst them. A few common ones are flat plates, wings/large plates, regular bricks, and slant pieces. You can even go so far as to sort them into categories like car pieces, Creator pieces, roofing, curved pieces, etc. After determining your main 3-5 categories, you should find bins that you will be able to store your bricks in, large enough to hold all of the bricks in, and a little room if more pieces might find their way there. For this, I used a plastic container 13” x 7” x 4.5”, which were previously used to store the bricks when they were sorted by color.
      Step 3: Sorting
      Supplies Needed:
      Paper Pencil/Marker/Writing Utensil Sharp eyes It all comes down to this: the actual sorting of your bricks. Tear a full piece of printer paper into quarters, then fold each quarter in half, “hotdog style”, which is the second grader way of saying “the long way”. On one half of the paper, write the category in large bold letters, and place it inside the container, so that one half of the piece of paper is on the bottom of the box, and one is touching the side. If you choose to use a different method of labeling, that is totally fine. This is just a way that I found to be time and economically efficient. Now, take no more than two of the categories and take as many pieces out of your master collection and into your box assuming it meets the criteria. A great way to get to all the pieces if you have a large container is using a “Lazy Susan”, which I use, or if you have a circular container, you can press it against your chest/body, and turn.
      Step 4: Sub-Categories
      Once you have finished sorting into your main categories, you are left with several types of pieces that probably aren’t so related to each other. These pieces obviously don’t need large containers to store in, so you can use a small plastic shelf/cabinet like the one below, or use a tackle box, which serves a very similar purpose. If you are going the shelf/cabinet route, make sure to label each drawer to save time.
      By this time, you should have all your pieces organized, and ready to go! I recommend this type of organization to a more serious builder, because many times, it’s more important to get the piece than the color correct. However, for many, it is just important to get things organized and ready to go instead of heaps and piles everywhere.
      I hope you enjoyed this article, and I look forward to seeing pictures of some very organized LEGO collections!!
      Below are a few pictures of my collection of loose bricks [during sorting] for your entertainment.
      ​​
    • comicblast
      Hello, my username is Comicblast, and I will be your guide today. Please click here to follow along as the tour progresses. Enjoy!
      1. Forum Topics
      Once you go the the link above, you will come to the main BrickPicker Forums page. On this page are --- main categories of topics, and several other sub-categories. The first is the BrickPicker.com General Board. This category includes more general information, not so related to LEGO investing, but still important. If you intend on participating in the forums, I recommend you introduce yourself, but we’ll get around to doing this a little later.
      The second category is the ***Members Only Forum***. In this area, you will learn about the opinions of other LEGO investors on set performances, as well as the ever important Special Deals section. Non-Members cannot view this section, but it is 100% free to view it!
      Right below the ***Members Only Forum***, we come to the Investing & Collecting Forum. In this area, you will find topics discussing things more specific to themes and particular sets, as well as a general investing and collecting forum. Not every single theme is listed there, but the main ones are. If you have any questions on other sets, it is recommended to go to either the general investing and collecting forum or to the Buying and Selling forum. In this forum, you will find topics related to buying and selling, as well as popular destinations of buying LEGO’s, including eBay, Amazon, LEGO S@H, Toys R Us, Target Store/Online, and Walmart.
      One of the sub-categories of the Buying and Selling forum is The Deal or No Deal Forum. In this category, you will be able to inquire about a specific set, it’s investment potential, and so on. This is a recommended place to start out on LEGO investing. If you choose to start a thread in this category, your title should follow the following format: Set Number - Set Name. If your question includes more than one set, put a “/” between each new set name and number.
      2. Searching the Forums
      Before asking a question and starting a new thread, it is smartest to first search through past threads first. You can go to the upper right corner’s search bar, put in your set number, name, or key word, and then select “Forums”. Often, there will be a few pages of threads including that set number, but you should browse through to find if any might answer your question. Not only does this keep the forums clean, it gives you a more immediate answer to your inquiry, and quite frankly, keeps other members from getting annoyed at you.
      3. Starting a Topic
      If you have searched the forums for any similar topics, and haven’t found one, you can now start a Forums Topic! First, go to the main Forums page, then select the category that you think best fits your inquiry or topic. Click on that topic, then click on the box that reads “Start a New Topic” that is located on right side, above the list of topics already made. Now, pick a topic title. Remember, that if your topic is in The Deal or No Deal Forum, then it must follow the Set Number - Set Name format. After you type something in, a box of 5 topics will be listed. This is your last chance to turn back. If nothing really meets your question, then move on to the next step. Next you can pick a few topic tags, though this is not mandatory. After you have typed in your title, a box of By choosing tags, it’s easier to find the topic later on.
      Finally, you can type in your official inquiry. Make this section the place where you get very specific, on what your question is, and what information you are looking for. Questions like “What sets do I buy?” are in no way specific or direct. A better way to phrase this would be “Hi, I am new to LEGO investing, and came across a 7965 Millennium Falcon for $90 at my local Walmart. How does everyone think that this set will do, and how long should I hold it?” Often, there are answers to these questions buried in the forums, and difficult to find. Don’t get discouraged by members who say “Read the forums”, since you already have. Instead, wait a little while for other members to give their input. If there is really a long, extensive thread about it, then go ahead and take a look there.
      4. Responding to Posts
      Of course you can’t always ask questions! Sooner or later, you will come across a member who doesn’t know as much as you, and need guidance. They will take your question much more seriously and thoughtfully if you respond politely, and don’t insult their intelligence. If you disagree with what they are saying, don’t berate them on how they are a noob, or dim, even if they are. Ever hear the saying “Let’s agree to disagree”?
      When a thread gets really filled up, it is easier to respond to someone by using a quote. Go to their response, and select MultiQuote. Then if that is the only person who is being quoted, click the small pop-up box that reads “Reply to 1 quoted post(s)”. If you no longer wish to quote, click “Clear”. If you are answering or responding to more than one comment, then you can click MultiQuote for every response that is being responded to.
      While participating in the BrickPicker Forums, grammar is important. Not only are you taken more seriously, you look more professional. Correct grammar is also helpful to the eyes, and makes it easier for others to read what you are writing. If you have a streak of bad grammar, a member is sure to give you an embarrassing rant on it, which may not be the most exciting experience!
      Finally, forum etiquette. Here’s a great response by a member named Emes. Though he disagreed with what a different user said, he recognized his different views, and then stated his case in a very polite and helpful fashion:
      I hope you enjoyed this guide to the BrickPicke Forums! Stay tuned for the Guide to the BrickPicker Price Guide!
    • comicblast
      One of the biggest draws of BrickPicker.com is the online Price Guide that is free to all registered members. In this tutorial/article, we will figure out how to search for a set, and interpret the data that is provided.
      Looking Up Sets
      On nearly ever page on BrickPicker is a search bar in the upper left corner. In this search bar reads “Enter LEGO Set Number...”. You do not have to enter the set number, and you can enter in a key word such as “truck” or “plane”. After you have typed more than 2 characters, a list of sets automatically shows up with all the sets including your keyword(s). You can select the set of your choice to be led directly to the page specific to your set. If you do not select a set, you will be led to a list that includes all sets including the keyword, whether it be a series of numbers or letters, or a combination of both.
      This list includes basic information of the set. The title follows the following format: set number - varient number: set name. Usually, there will be a picture of the set directly below the name. If not, a yellow brick is shown that reads “Image Not Available”. Along with this is a small data collection including the number of pieces, number of minifigures, retail price, and the year the set was released [see picture below]. Finally, on the right side of this information box is a small graph that shows the rough changes in the set over the last 6 months.
      Set Information Page
      Once you have clicked on the set name that you wish to see, a page similar to the one below appears. On this page is data from 4 different eBay Marketplaces: eBay USA, eBay UK, eBay Australia, and eBay EU. Each that is shown is converted into the currency of your choice which can be changed in the upper right corner.
      The first 5 columns of the table are fairly self-explanatory with the values of the set in new and used form, along with the change in the last month. If there is no change, a “-” is shown. Finally CAGR comes up. CAGR stands for Compound Annual Growth Rate, and is “a formula that is applied to an investment(in our case, a LEGO set) to help determine the investment’s annual smoothed return. The final percentage that you get...shows the positive or negative growth of your investment over a specified period of time”*.
      Finally, we come to the Price Per Brick category. In this section, you will see the average price for a set at it’s current used and new price (from eBay), as well as it’s retail price. This information is helpful for resellers who “part out” sets, or use the set to create MOC’s.
      Next comes the photo gallery that has a variety of pictures of the set, though the number of pictures varies from set to set. Right below this is a datachart that we saw in the list of sets right before coming to this page. It also includes the retail prices for the set for the US, UK, Australia, and EU. Next to this chart that looks similar to the one below:
      Rebrickable is a website includes a database of sets similar to Brickset or BrickPicker, but also includes a very helpful tool. “Rebrickable will show you which LEGO sets you can build, by reusing the sets and loose parts you already own...Unless you have a LOT of sets, you will usually be missing a few pieces. In these cases, Rebrickable will show you exactly what you are missing and even provide suggested sets that you could buy which will get you those pieces.”^ Rebrickable has the list of parts included in the set, as well as a list of vendors that are selling the pieces needed to complete the set, and how much of the set they have in stock.
      Bricker is the second website listed. Similar to BrickPicker, Brickset, and Rebrickable, it includes a large database filled with most, if not all, LEGO sets. In addition to this, they have a large quantity of reviews of different sets, taken from other LEGO websites, as well as articles, and quicklinks to other LEGO forums. Bricker can be converted into a database for Mega Bloks, making its brick database one of the largest around.
      A link to Instructions is the third link. The instructions are found on the BrickPicker website, and are in a PDF version. Instructions aren’t always available, but for most sets, they are there.
      The final section is called Brickfolio Inventory. In this section, if you are signed in, and have the set in your Brickfolio, then the number of copies of the set new and used is shown rather than N/A. N/A is only shown when the set is not in your Brickfolio.
      In the Current Offers section is a list of all the stores, that BrickPicker has authorized , that is selling your set. Often, recently retired sets will still be shown to be sold at the LEGO Shop, even when this isn’t the case.
      Next are two graphs. One is titled “Monthly Listings (Sold Items - your country of choice)”. For me, I have chosen the US eBay marketplace, so it says “Monthly Listings (Sold Items - USA)”. In yellow is the quantity of used sets sold, and in red new. You can hover your mouse over each white dot to see the month that the value is from, and the quantity sold. The graph next to it is very similar. It has the average “Monthly Listings Value (Sold Items - your country of choice)”. In the same way, the data tracks the average price the set was sold at. This data is updated every month, but it takes significantly longer now, because 4x the amount of data must be uploaded to the database.
      The next few sections are self-explanatory, with the change over time, as well as the change above or below retail price. Recent Sold Listings shows the region the set was sold, the date, the price, and the condition of the set. The Averages tab shows the median, mean, minimum price, maximum price, and mode of the sold listings. Finally, the Live Completed Listings section shows the what the specific set has sold for most recently.
      In the Reviews section, all the reviews for that particular set are listed, as well as the overall score. You can browse through reviews by different members, as well as review the set yourself, by clicking on the “Review this Set” link below the overall score.
      Lastly come the list of Active Listings, sorted by price. You can change this to 20 different eBay Marketplaces.
      Tips and Tricks You can view a whole theme by finding one set from a theme, then go to “Select a Theme” and click the theme, in this case Star Wars.
      You arrive at a seemingly similar page. The only difference is at the top, right below the “Search Price Guide” heading.
      Now it reads “Star Wars” next to “Price Guide”. Finally, click on “Star Wars” and you will be led directly to a page listing all the sets, sorted by date. You can also do this for other themes, as well as sub-themes [see below.]
      Thanks for reading, and I hope this helps you figure out the BrickPicker Price Guide!
      *Quote from Ed Mack’s article called CAGR: Compound Annual Growith Rate and LEGO.
      http://www.brickpicker.com/forum/index.php/blog/4/entry-15-cagr-compound-annual-growth-rate-and-lego/
      ^Quote from Rebrickable’s About page. http://rebrickable.com/about
      ​




    • MartinP
      The 8068 Rescue Helicopter comes from the Technic theme. The set has 408 pieces. The set has a retail price of $39.99 USD. This means the set has a Price Per Piece (PPP) ratio of ten cents ($0.10 USD) per piece. There is another ratio that is called the Price Per Gram (PPG) ratio.The set has a weight of 0.65 kilograms, which is 650 grams. For this set it would be about six cents ($0.0615 USD) per gram.
      Unfortunately, the set does not come with any minifigures. The set was released in late 2010/early 2011. The set was retired in late 2012. This means the set was available on the retail market for about a year. Although the set was on the market for only about a years some stores still had the set for sale due to higher prices.
      Currently, the set has a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 18.71%, which is really good for two years. The CAGR is for the Technic theme is 9.43%. The set has a better CAGR than the theme by 9.28%. The set has a CAGR that is almost double its theme CAGR. Also the set has a better CAGR than the average CAGR for all the themes. The average CAGR is 11.36%. This means the set has a better CAGR by 7.35%. Let's look at a simple chart showing the monthly sold listings for the set new.
      June 2012: 1 July 2012: 1 August 2012: 7 September 2012: 15 October 2012: 9 November 2012: 18 December 2012: 42 January 2013: 9 February 2013: 5 March 2013: 9 April 2013: 14 May 2013: 1 According to the chart, there were 131 sets sold in the past year. This means there were about eleven (11) new sets sold per month on eBay. All this shows that there is an interest in the set, which means the set is a potential invest winner. Now, there will be a greater interest in the set because the set was recently retired. Now people will probably pay more to get the set, thus increasing the value of the set. Now, let's look at the sales trend for the set in the past year.
      June 2012: $33.61 USD July 2012: $32.47 USD August 2012: $35.00 USD September 2012: $35.72 USD October 2012: $35.48 USD November 2012: $38.33 USD December 2012: $39.12 USD January 2013: $43.96 USD February 2013: $45.53 USD March 2013: $50.33 USD April 2013: $57.61 USD May 2013: $56.35 USD This chart is very different from the other charts I have done. This chart includes the values of the set before and after the set was retired. According to my sources, which is brickset.com, the set was retired on October 30, 2012. Although the set was retired in late October, there still may have some sets sitting on some store shelves waiting to be sold, so I think that all the sets would be off the primary market by January 2013. Now, I will analyze both parts of the chart starting with before the set was retired.
      Before the set was retired, the set had a value below the retail price. Over the course of seven (7) months, the set had increased in value by $5.51 USD, which is about seventy-nine cents ($0.79 USD) a month. During those seven months the set was increasing in value for most of the time except for two months, which is July and October.
      After the set was retired, the set had rose above the retail price. Over the course of five months, the set had risen $12.39 USD, which is about $2.48 USD per month. During the past five months, the set has increased every month except for May 2013, when the set dropped $1.26 USD, or 2.19%.
      During the whole year, the set has gained $22.74 USD in value, which is about $1.90 USD a month. Hopefully, the set continues with this amazing growth in the future.
      Another aspect I look at is the Return On Investment (ROI). The ROI for this set is about 41% after two years. That is not bad considering that the set was recently retired.
      My recommendation is to buy this set. The set was recently retired and it is showing good signs of positive growth and investment potential. The set has a good CAGR of 18.71% and the set has been increasing in value a lot in the past five months. Overall, I think that this set has some great investing potential.
      Thanks for reading!
    • Alcarin
      Welcome to LEGO LOTR wave 1, re-evaluation of investing potential, of last, currently non-retired sets.
      I will be re-quoting myself for the new members!
      now lets lurk over these remaining unretired sets:

      9470-1: Shelob Attacks -30.87%
      The set is still dropping in value and is not yet retired. My old words still stand. 25% below US retail is the price to chase... If you can get it on that entry price there is no fear of losing money for now. It will be to be held for longer than 2 years after retirement to reach my predicted value of 45-55$. This set offers a good brick built spider that can also pass for generic spider to MOC lovers. Sam is still exclusive (allthough I am 99% sure he will be re-released in wave 3. Gollum is somewhat exclusive with face expression. Frodo is not exclusive at all.
      Buy at: 25% below US retail or lower
      Sell at: 45$ ***
      9471-1: Uruk-Hai Army -22.94%
      The license restrictions are still alive (and they will be until expiration of license) so there are no words, even hints of any Battle packs (similar to SW) to be released. Most we can expect are these type of B-packs. Eomer is exclusive to the set, everyone likes light gray bricks (sand green is also useful) Its the only set with 4 Uruk-hais (I always exclude Berseker from Uruk-hai armies since they were more individually presented ) and its the cheapest army builder in LOTR universe in LEGO.
      If I were you I would be buying these also on retail! I expect them to grow to 80$ easily, especially if Eomer is staying exclusive!
      Buy at: Full retail or less
      Sell at: 70$ ***
      ''This set is a gem of LOTR line for army builders!''

      9473-1: The Mines of Moria -36.14%
      This is a playset, and as such not really loved among the AFOLs. There are currently 3 exclusive figures in the set. Pippin, Boromir and Cave Troll. I personally expect Pippin to be re-released in wave 3, but the other 2 might remain exclusive. This set was apparently the slowest seller and many shops still have them. I always considered this set to be the sleeper. I still think it might be, but only with buying the set on 30% discount or more. It was heavily discounted through big retailers and online shops like Amazon. The build consists mainly of dark gray and has kinda ''lots'' of stickers which is a downer for me. Its still one of my favorite LOTR sets mainly because I always liked Boromir while reading books and watching movies.
      I would not buy this set for less than 30% discount. You will likely have to hold it longer than 2 years to reach decent profits. Cannot see this set surpassing 150$ ''milestone''
      Buy at: 30% below US retail or lower
      Sell at: 125$ ***
      9474-1: The Battle Of Helm's Deep -19.02%
      The flagship set of wave 1 of LOTR. And what a magnificent build and display it was/is This s0$ ''milestone''et is truly awesome. It got high ratings, was sold out in most shops, but still available online. Its expected to retire before or shortly after Christmas 2013. It currently has 3 exclusive figures and 2 are highly likely to stay exclusive (Haldir and Berseker). It was relatively well discounted and a really hot seller.
      This set will likely make profits (all-though longer to achieve) even if bought on retail. but any discount is even better. I expect this set to reach 200$ relatively easily within 2 years of EOL. And I predict a 300$ cap on ''all-time'' investing cycle.
      Buy at: any discount!
      Sell at: 220$ ***
      ''Gems above can turn into stinky fishes when you see this even bigger gem''

      NOTE: ''Sell at'' suggestions are my own as an investor who took time to carefully observe LOTR sets and should only be followed by your own choice. I take no responsibility if sets actually do not raise to such values or if they raise even higher and you felt like you lost money for ''listening'' to my advice/suggestion.
    • Alcarin
      It is long known that United States of America has a relatively huge privilege when it comes to LEGO pricing and investment potentials. They get the best deals and the best retail prices. While I will mostly discuss Europe pricing compared to USA, I added ''world'' to the entry title simply because every country has the same problem.
      1.00 U.S. dollar = 0.749625187 Euros (€)
      If we just look a couple of late price comparison:
      9474-1: The Battle of Helm's Deep
      US price: 129.99 $
      EU price: 139.99 € (186.794 $)
      79108-1: Stagecoach Escape
      US price: 29.99 $
      EU price: 39.99 € (53.3602 $)
      Now the EU usual tax value is around 20% (+/- a few percent points) depending on country. There is no good reason for pricing in examples above. While Helm's Deep look almost reasonable, the Lone ranger (one of the best sets of the theme) is at 100 % and more increase for Europe retail with only 20 % extra tax.
      TLG obviously dislikes Europe(World) purchasing their products considering the mark-up which is rather extreme. What is more worrying is the fact that TLG is willing to do nothing to bring it more up to par of USA pricing and rather gives a half-baked answers regarding the problematic raised by us common buyers.
      As a sign of protect I have stopped purchasing any LEGO from European shops (excluding Amazon occasionally) unless the set is at 33% + discounted. And even then that is a rather low satisfaction considering that at 33% off EU retail that usually means US retail.
      I encourage all Europeans to actively push TLG with weekly questions concerning the pricing so that we might, some day (or maybe our kids) have a fair price.
       
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      When I first joined this site it seemed like there were a lot of people here talking about investing in Legos by buying sets and storing them until they are worth a lot more money. Basically a long-term investment. When I hear the word “investment” that is normally what I think of; buying or tying up capital in something and then waiting until it is worth more money than you paid for it.
      After a while though, I saw people who were mentioning how they make money on Lego by using the quick flip. This would be where you purchase something, be it an exclusive, a pre-order item, an item not available everywhere, or something just on sale and then immediately (or fairly shortly after) try to sell it for more than you paid for it. It is not a tremendously complicated idea, though the mechanics can cause you some problems.
      So I wanted to alert some people to a good way of utilizing the quick flip that everyone can do fairly easily. This is the “no box” quick flip. It is fairly simple and I have done it quite a bit using Ebay and their search functions.
      Basically, we all know that without a box, a set is worth less – whether it is used or new. But by how much? Well, it depends on what people's definition of “new” and “used” are for the particular item. With a Lego set, because it has inner bags, most people consider a set still new if the Lego bags themselves are still sealed. This is definitely unique from most other things you buy. So a set could have no box at all – just be a pile of Lego bags – and still be considered new to most Lego fans.
      Thinking about other toys you may have purchased, if you had a toy and the box was severally damaged or torn up, you would probably just throw it away if you didn't know what it was worth. This happens every day with people that buy Lego sets. They may decide to sell the new set later, and think that because it has no box – it is worth a lot less money.
      However, this is not the case. Because Lego is so popular, a lot of people that open Lego sets don't necessarily even throw the box away in that situation. Others that part the set out to make money also keep the boxes. A lot of these people then decide to sell the boxes by themselves on websites like Ebay, and most of all, bricklink.com. Because these boxes are so readily available, if a set's bags are still sealed, it can be put into someone else's box and resold as New (not sealed). If you have read some of the articles and forum posts on this site about box condition, you will know that It matters little to the people buying the set.
      So the idea becomes very simple – if you can find a set on Ebay that has sealed bags, but no box and is quite a bit less expensive than the sets current market price, you can make a lot of money. Basically, with a quick check to www.bricklink.com, you can find how much a box would cost you and total up your price right there to make a set brand new again.
      Here are a couple of my personal examples:
      Right around the time the 9500 Sith Fury-CLass Interceptor came out, I found someone selling one without the box on Ebay for $50. I bought it, purchased a box for ~$5.00 after shipping and resold the set for $85 all within a few days. A few days ago, I found a tower Bridge 10214 on Ebay with no box for $169.99. I purchased it and have since purchased a box for $7.00 with shipping. I have not decided yet what I would like to do with it – but obviously do have some room to make money there. As well, recently FCBarcelona – one of my fellow Blog writers that I look up to for my articles - purchased a 10030 Imperial Star Destroyer for $280 without the box. If he purchased a box, he could resell this set for over $1000!
      So why would people sell a set without a box?
      The box was damaged when they purchased it or in storage and they want to get rid of it. Water damage to the box. To make the set easier to ship (This is a random one but it definitely happens to people who buy big sets, decide to sell them, and don't want to use a huge shipping box). Open it, discard the box, and then never build the set. If people sell the set for way less without the box, this is just your gain! So how do you find these sets on Ebay?
      Using the search function, you can set up some good searches that will help you easily find the boxless sets that you can quickly flip with a fresh box. If you are not familiar with Ebay's search function, I would suggest reading my blog on that here: http://www.brickpicker.com/forum/index.php/blog/28/entry-269-ive-been-searching-for-a-set-like-you-ebay-searching-tips-and-strategies/
      A few notes before I give you a couple of searching examples from this: I always only search for Buy It Now items. You can do auction if you would like, and you can sometimes score good deals this way, but most of the time these sets go for more because people like us know what they are worth and are bidding against you. Also, don't only search for new sets. Some people consider these sets used if the box is gone. If so, they will list the condition as “used”. If you filter these out, you are going to filter out the best deals.
      Here are some search examples I use:
      lego <theme or set> “no box” - For this one, insert the theme or set you would like to search for and the phrase “no box”.
      lego set <theme> (“sealed bags”, “open”, “loose”) - This one searches for sets that have the phrase “sealed bags”, “open”, or “loose” in theme.
      lego set “no box” (“sealed bags”, “open”, “loose”) - This one searches for sets that have the phrase “sealed bags”, “open”, or “loose” in theme, but only if they also have “no box”.
      These are just a few examples, as you can get really creative with it. The more creative with the searches you get, the better sets you will find (those listings that seem to get stuck out in the middle of nowhere).
      Here are a couple of tips while searching for what to look for and be aware of:
      There is not really a general rule of what price to buy at to make you money – it depends on the set. For me, I usually take about 20% off the BrickPicker price and that's what my target is (assuming I may be able to get a little more depending on my listing). If you can sell local in a big Craigslist market, obviously this makes it easier. Make sure whatever you are buying has pictures of the set, or is low enough you are willing to take a chance. Also be careful you read through the whole listing. It does happen sometimes that you will receive a set that has had more damage than just whatever may have happened to the box. Always check the Bricklink price for the box. Some boxes are worth WAY more than others. Do not ever buy a set and then look at the price – or you will wonder why you just bought the Death Star 2 for $100 off when the box is $75. Check your local stores for boxes less and damaged box sets as well. A lot of places will severely discount these. Also, ask a manager if they can give you any more off. Most will give you some king of discount to just get the set out the door. You can make big bucks this way. Be careful of sets that say they have had water damage. These are mostly alright, but if the Legos were touched and it did get in the bags, it is a risk. Like anything, I usually have to see the right deal to jump on these. That is my quick flip method for the day. Give it a try and report what you find!
      Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
       


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