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    • Veegs
      Original idea MartinP - how much investment potential do holiday promo sets have?
      If you've been investing for any appreciable amount of time, you'll be aware that Brick Friday is one of the most important events on a LEGO investors calendar.  Personally, I drive my wife nuts outlining various purchasing strategies for this special time - how to maximize my purchases within a limited budget.  Also to consider is how to maximize the number of free holiday promo sets; each order ideally just clears the minimum to obtain the goodies TLG offers buyers, like a carrot in front of a hungry mule. (We are the mules in this analogy, and by god we want that carrot)
      For real newcomers to BrickPicker.com, we've just passed another Brick Friday and you'll have to stick around for another eleven or so months to experience the rush.  I can briefly outline what it is all about.  Traditionally (at least in my limited Brick Friday experiences) LEGO VIP members (which should be pretty much everyone as it is free to join) get access to limited deals the weekend before Black Friday in the USA.  Generally I don't find the deals all the enticing, but there are usually better incentives - double or triple VIP points and free Christmas-themed Creator Holiday sets if your order exceeds a set dollar amount.  The combination of triple VIP points and a neat little Christmas set that can be sold (if desired) can make large LEGO exclusives and large hard to find sets much more reasonable in price - the catch being you have to use those VIP points on more LEGO, but if you are investing in LEGO it shouldn't be too difficult to find LEGO sets you want from S&H.  Another wrinkle is that in 2011 and 2013, there were two sets that were available at different times, encouraging people like you and me to buy plenty of LEGO sets during both promotional periods to get matching sets.
      This brings us to MartinP's real question - do these holiday promos have any serious investment potential?  If not, and they are going to generally plateau at a certain price point, when is the best time to sell these adorable little sets?  After all, we're all looking to maximize our returns on these little free sets so we can get what we really want - large LEGO sets at a 'discount'.
      Below I'd like to detail the original offers on the promo sets as well as their success on the secondary market.  Below that, I'll include my take based on a quick check of current ebay sold listings that haven't been included in the Brickpicker database for December 2013.
      What can we learn from this data?  First, I think that the 2011 sets don't display that well with other Winter Village sets (Toy Shop, аakery, Cottage, etc.) and are therefore not as desirable.  Also, the Santa minifigure in the second 2011 holiday set might be the catalyst for its slightly better growth.  That being said, recent ebay sold listings for December 2013 show that all sets listed above are selling for more than their Brickpicker average, leading me to ascertain that (duh) these sets will sell for a higher price around the holiday season.
      My personal take is that these sets appear in huge numbers immediately following the promotion and it is unlikely you are going to get the best value from your set with a quick flip.  I managed to hit up a couple BIN auctions just after the promo (2013) and picked up two of the first holiday promos for $11.95 each, which I think is a little on the low side.  So far there seems to be a ceiling of around $30 that these sets can command, making it more reasonable to use these not as a long term investment, but as a little bonus to reduce your buy in price of large LEGO exclusives.
      My advice would be to avoid low starting prices on auctions - these seem to be the recent sold listings that sell for $20 and under - stick to BIN and there is plenty of evidence that you can get a higher price.  Also, if you can grab a few pretty cheap right after they flood the market there may be an opportunity to make a decent return, but thus far there doesn't seem to be solid year-over-year growth.  If you are going to invest and hold on to those hoping to buck the existing trends, stick to the sets from 2012 and 2013 as I think they work much better with the Winter Village series.  You could also bundle these sets with Winter Village sets (if you are lucky enough to have a slew of EOL'ed sets, this could boost your return) to get more interest in your auctions.
      Overall it seems like these neat little sets are most useful as a $25 discount (after fees, approximately) on a LEGO purchase.  That being said, they are very popular - typically among the most sold sets during the holidays, so I would be interested in seeing if someone can invest in quite a few of these little guys and hold them for another 2-4 years to see if they can grow.  They are small, and easy to store, but I think you'd have to invest in a large number of sets in order to see a sizeable total profit - personally, I'll sell them, take the money and run.
    • Veegs
      It seems like a lifetime ago I wrote a little piece about investing in Friends.  At the time, none were quite EOL and there was a lot of speculation about the value of this line for investment purposes.  So, where are my girls at?  How has that first wave of Friends sets done on the secondary market?
      For those that have been around long enough, based on the early success of Friends, production for sets of the first wave were increased.  Even with this increase of production, plenty of the initial sets were sold out or hard to find this holiday season, and I suspect several will move from sold out at S&H to retired (which is now one of the most beautiful words in the English language, I think) in early 2014.  Obviously, even with increased production, Friends remains a huge seller.  Gandalf and Bilbo, Vader and Harry Potter are all looking up at the current number four CAGR% theme.  Number four, people!  I was thinking top ten when I wrote the initial article on Friends investing, but I didn't think it would be topping Superheroes and Batman - even from someone who loved this line, I still underestimated their appeal a little.  As of Dec. 31st, 2013, this theme sports a massive 52.61% CAGR!
      *Note: The chart continues on to a second page for three more reviews!
      The world of LEGO investing is one that is constantly evolving and changing.  Right now, with a lot of the first wave of Friends sets being OOS, Sold Out or Retired on S&H, there are almost more changes than one can keep track of.  Hopefully this chart offers enough information on current trends for these sets.  Looking at these trends, there are several options that look set to double, triple or quadruple (plus) their retail in the coming twelve months.  Some can still be found at retail, some even on sale, but I'm pretty certain most of the sets listed above won't be available for long (see exceptions in the chart).
      In anecdotal evidence, I had a fair amount of success selling Butterfly Beauty Shops and Heartlake Dog Shows, two of the sets I targeted way back when.  So, with the first wave in the process of EOLing (yes, it can be used as a verb, English lit-LEGO investors) what does the future hold?  For the first time since the launch of Friends, a second girl-oriented line will be sold alongside it - Disney Princesses!  Also, with two Christmas seasons in a row with (seemingly) limited stock, will TLG double production again?  Even if they do, there should still be opportunities on 2012 Friends sets that are highlighted above.  Plenty of questions, and only speculation at this point, but I think Friends will keep near the top of the CAGR percent heap and offer savvy investors plenty of opportunities to make greenbacks from those pink and purple bricks. 
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      As mentioned in other blogs and some of my forum posts, I have begun a Lego business online using an Ebay Store. A large part of my business is from parting out sets; The practice of of selling the minifigures and certain desirable parts of a set (like a vehicle or building) separately to make money on the set. This is a very common (but time consuming) practice for many different people ranging from businesses to people like me. On the outside, it seems like a fairly understandable, and even helpful, practice. Let's say a giant new set comes out, like the Jabba's Sail Barge 75020 at the $120 price point. This is a refresh, so there may be people who already have the original and don't care for the new one. However, this one has an exclusive Max Rebo figure in it. So, they jump on Ebay and pick one up for 15$, not having to purchase the whole set they don't want to get that figure.
      In the same manner, a kid sees the 70505 Temple of Light set and loves the Golden Mech, but does not want the full set nor do his parents have the money for it (70$). So the parents get on Ebay and grab it for $20. It is not hard to see the benefit here. So why would The Lego Group(TLG) be against it?
      In the last year, we have seen TLG tremendously crack down on re-sellers not using their reselling program, investors, and most other types of Lego Business. The obvious reason for battling people who part out sets is they want people to buy the full set. However, past that it just seems as if TLG does not like other businesses making money by "rearranging" their products - which is somewhat understandable.
      So, why do I think this?
      The Evidence
      It took me a short while to start coming to this conclusion. When I started my parting out business, I picked up a lot of the newer star wars sets to start with. I got used to a minifigure in 3/4ths of the bags, separated for the most part. After a while, I picked up a few Ninjago sets, specifically the Epic Dragon Battle 9450 and UltraSonic Raider 9449. These were released a couple of years ago, and well before the Star Wars sets. In these sets, the figures were all in the first bag! This made it incredibly easy to part out as you weren't opening 4 or 5 more bags each set.
      I got a little curious about it, and decided to pay attention as I started to open more sets. All of the older Ninjago sets had their minifigures all, or mostly all in the first bags. This would serve as a control. In December, new Ninjago sets came out which I knew would tell me what I needed to know: Mainly if I was just being suspicious for no reason, or if something is actually happening. Sure enough, the three sets I have parted out so far - 70723, 70724, 70725 require the opening of 3, 4, and 4 bags respectively.
      I do not have a ton of older sets to compare it to now, since most of them are now retired or not worth parting out - but I did notice some more: The 9468 Vampyre Castle does not require more than one bag opened nor does the 10228 Haunted House. The newer set results are impossible to ignore. Here are a few of the interesting sets showing this point that are more recent:
      The three Ninjago sets mentioned The new Hobbit Sets 79011, 79012, 79013, 79014 all require multiple bags to be opened - 2, 2, 3, and 4 respectively. Arkham Asylum Breakout - 7 of the 9 bags have to be opened. 75021 SW Republic Gunship -  6 of the 9 bags must be opened. 10236 Ewok Village - Somewhere near 100 have to be opened. I have also noticed that the minifigure parts inside each bag have become somewhat randomly placed. For example, the Black Gate 79007, requires all 4 bags be opened. In bag 3, you must put together a simple 5 piece orc. Normally, torso and legs are in the main bag and the head, weapons, and small pieces are in the smaller inner bag(s). In this bag, the legs to the orc are in the smaller parts bag. This is somewhat peculiar, already because there are two close-to-identical orcs in different bags, but the legs for the other orc are not in the smaller parts bag.
      On top of this, a lot of larger sakout.ets with tons of minifigures now have more than one bag with the same number on it. This means you may have to open more than one bag...just to open one bag! This is the case with the Ewok Village and Arkham Asylum Breakout.
      Why would TLG do this besides a Conspiracy?
      To be fair, as a builder I really like this. It is definitely fun to have a minifigure in each bag and I think that opening all the minifigures in one bag can sometimes make the rest of the set seem duller - especially if the minifigures are the main draw. As far as for younger builders, I think this keeps them interested through the whole thing.
      It is possible as well that this is just a process/manufacturing thing for TLG and the minifigure placement, and part placement inside the bags is just becoming more efficient, and for some reason the current configuration lends itself to that.
      Another very plausible explanation is to guard against theft. We have all heard the stories about people punching out corners of the box and removing the minifigures. It is obviously much easier to do this if you can just swipe a whole bag rather than having to open 7 or 8 of them in a busy store.
      How much worse can it get?
      In the current sets, while I prefer the older configurations with all minifigures in the first bag, things are not too bad. After you open a set a few times, you get used the set and remember where each piece is in each bag. I timed myself opening two similar sets to prove this out: 9449 UltraSonic Raider and the Dol Guldur Battle 79014.
      9449 took 5:46 (this is building all minifigures and packing up the raider) 79014 took 10:23 (building all minifigures and packing up the rest of the set) Definitely a considerable difference. 79014 took almost 2 times longer to separate. As we know, in any business, time is money and this is definitely a huge toll on anyone looking to part of sets. But can it get worse?
      In a word... yes.
      TLG can easily continue to separate minifigures even more inside the packages themselves. A lot of bags contain 2 smaller packages. TLG may start putting a piece of each minifigure in each bag. They could start individually wrapping each part of the minifigure in the bag itself (they do this in certain cases now) meaning that each part would have to be unwrapped. New minifigures may end up showing up in multiple sets meaning less exclusive minifigures that command high prices. They could refrain from changing minifigures expressions or outfits in different sets. Instructions and parts for different pieces (like one modular from the minimodular sets) could end up in different bags or in a abnormal arrangement making it almost impossible to part out sets in that manner. Selling minifigures separately themselves. Would they do this? I think there will be a point where this would hurt their business more than it would be deterring people from making money from their product. For that reason, I only see them continuing to play games with packaging the minifigures in weird ways. I really doubt that TLG would make it harder for builders just to keep a few entrepreneurs from making a little by being creative.
      Other problems to consider
      There are bigger concerns than a set just taking longer to part out. With different parts in different places, I routinely find myself missing a part and having to go back and figure out where it is. On the more complicated sets, I have definitely had more Ebay Buyer Protection cases opened because I left a small piece off a minifigure. In reality, I forget some pieces because I get so frustrated trying to find every little piece. The worse this gets, the more vigilant we will have to be to make sure we get everything correct.
      If TLG decides to go an even more drastic route, like limiting exclusive minifigures or even selling them separately themselves, the business as a whole is in jeopardy. I will attest that there are certain sets, like the Funhouse, that are very tough to part out just because so many people are doing it. If minifigures are now found in more and more different sets, you may have to get a set at 50 or 60% off to make parting out a worth while venture. Just look at values for figures like Harry Potter, Frodo and Bilbo Baggins, Gandalf the Grey, etc. and you can see how these values are killed because they appear in so many sets. Not the same as the values for figures like Azog, Pre Vizsla, Max Rebo, etc.
      How can Parter-outers fight back?
      First off, there is not too much we can directly do - it's TLGs product and they certainly have a right to package things and organize them how they want. However, there are some ways you can cut down on the pain this causes you.
      If you already have a set parted out, have it handy (or pictures) as you part the next one out In addition to the above, doing the same set a bunch of times in a row really helps as you get in a grove and cut down on your time significantly. My wife helped me one day with 10 of 3 different sets. By the time she got to the 4th or 5th of each one, she was flying and didn't miss a piece. Have an extra of each set you part out consistently on hand so that if you miss something, you will have an extra to resend out to a buyer while you try and find it. If you get tired or frustrated - TAKE A BREAK! I have noticed this really helps me. I actually will sometimes work out and part out sets funny enough. I do a set or two of weights, then open up a set. Gets me in a groove and I relieves the stress. In conclusion, it is very possible that all of this is imagined and I am just pushing a conspiracy that is not really there. But, either way, we can't ignore that newer sets are getting harder and harder to part out quickly - that much is clear. If you do and do not stay vigilant towards these concerns as TLG possibly takes more and more drastic steps, it could be your Lego business that is in parts.  
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      Lego Chima is a very interesting theme to say the absolute least. When the them first came out, I think my collective thoughts on each set were "What the hell is that?". To a certain extent I still ask myself that, so I had always had a pretty negative view of Chima along with many other posters on the forum. I see some people prop up a few individual sets, but they are certainly not called out as targets for big time investing. In fact, I think that even the lowly Lone Ranger theme (I say lowly in a tentative manner obviously) gets a lot more love than the Chima theme. I am a victim of this myself - I look at these sets and see "little kids toys" and a bunch of random Asian influenced anime-type characters and just don't see the same thing I see when I look at a Modular or a UCS Star Wars set. You could probably go back and quote me just a month or two ago saying that I wanted to "Wait and see on this theme".
      However, a few things weighed on me and started to change my mind.
      I wanted to share them and see if they changed anyone else's mind. My first thoughts into it actually came with a post Ed Mack (co site-creator) said several months ago. I can not find the original post, but it was to the effect of "There are 100's of Lego Sets that are winners that are not even mentioned once on this site". A lot has been made of investment sets like the Fire Brigade and the Fun House, the Orc Forge, etc. being stockpiled and diminishing their value. To me, I saw Ed's statement as meaning "If you want to stay ahead of the game, you have to find the hidden fruit." Think about this: The set that had one of the highest CAGR's since its release and probably won the award for it last year is The Zombies - a small 40$ Monster Fighters Set. Yes, it had a very short production run, but how many people had really seen a ton of investment value in this set. Furthermore, how many times was it actually mentioned on this site?
      So I have lately started looking for the "Gems" in the investment world. I started looking at the smaller, less talked about Ninjago sets. I also took another piece of Ed's advice and picked up some different Hero Factory sets he had written blogs about; 30% CAGR later I am feeling good about those. But as I kept playing around with these different sleeper sets, I still didn't know what to think of Chima. Its still unproven, I still don't really know what it is, and there are SO many sets around to really choose from.
      About a month or so ago, I went to the Lego store and it was freaking packed. I hate when places are so packed with people you can't move, so I wanted to get in and get out. As I was looking around I overheard some small children pointing out Chima Lego sets that they wanted. They were going on about Birdmen, "wolf guys", "bird ships", and more that made no sense. I sort of laughed it off, but it suddenly dawned on me: Not only was I discounting this theme because I didn't know what it is (a big time no-no for any investor), I was thinking that actually had some baring on the sets investment values. Sure, they have to have memorable names and a story behind it - this is really what the show is designed to do - but all the kids cared about were that the sets were cool. They wanted them.
      So I asked myself - what really makes this theme different than Ninjago? With Ninjago, everyone says its popular because "kids like Ninjas and dragons". However, Destiny's Bounty has done great. The Rattlecopter is seeing solid gains. And we all know Spinners are Winners. In all seriousness, its not. And Ninjago was discounted by tons of people when it came out too when it came to investment value.
      At this point, I hadn't really written or solidified my thoughts on the theme yet (I really like to write down or type out thins as it legitimizes them for me). Luckily, one of our esteemed members, Quacs, PM'd me and asked me about my thoughts on the Chima Series. I wrote a pretty long paragraph cataloging a lot of the points I am going to make below and in the coming sets of Blogs. Quacs replied he totally agreed and he wont be caught without these sets either when the proverbial clock strikes midnight.
      So why am I convinced this theme is a winner?
      The are done the "Lego" way - the right way.
      Obviously this can be interpreted any way you want looking at old sets and themes, and it certainly doesn't just take this to make a theme a winner, but these are what I would call "top of the line" Lego sets. This means they have everything collectors, investors, and anyone else looks for in a Lego sets. The sets are incredibly detailed and colorful - there really aren't any dull Chima sets that I have seen. The sets have tons of moving parts, flick missles, vehicles and ships. Also, what I think is most important, the theme has an insane amount of variety. The Chi Raider 70012 is a giant Bird Ship. You then have the Chi Temple 70010, which is a castle or sorts. Past that, there is Cragger's Ship 70006 , a classic ship or sorts made to fit the theme. There are tons more as well. Each vehicle or base/hideout is extremely unique which offers more and more to different people to get theme interested in the theme. The more variety in a theme, the more it appeals to everyone. Think about this in terms of the Lone Ranger: Who do those sets appeal to? Western collectors, the cult of people who liked the movie and trains? Obviously Chima has more sets, but that only strengthens the theme in my opinion.
      No Licensing Agreement - This is Lego's Theme
      Ok, before you kill me with the argument that licensed themes do the best (which is right in a lot of ways), look at this from a different angle. Lego has invested a ton of money into this theme (hence the TV show, the wide array of sets, etc.) because they make all the money from it. There are no hands grabbing sections of this as the money train makes its way to TLG. Just like Ninjago and Lego Friends, Lego will work and work to make sure that this theme is known, is popular, and is established.  Commercials have started running for these themes as well. This really works in tandem with everything else, but Chima will be a winner because Lego wont stop until it is during production. And rarely does a theme do well in production and drop off after it.
      The Minifigures
      I have definitely heard some negative things about the minifigures from this series on the forums here. I, again, was skeptical but looking at how well Ninjago figures do, I figured these followed in those same footsteps. If you do not know, I have ran a Lego business on Ebay for about 4 Months now and a big part of that is piecing and parting out sets - especially minifigures. I also buy large minifigure lots and part them out as well. A couple of months ago, I decided to take the leap and grab some Chima sets to part out.
      On one hand, the figures are really hard to part out. But this is a good thing for the secondary market - they are hard to part out because they all have SO MUCH going on with them. Almost every Chima figure is 8-10 pieces including the weapons, wings, helmets, etc. For us, this seems a bit like overdoing it, but for those who know Children well, that word is not in their vocabulary.
      As some "fact" to offer up with this - Chima Figures were just behind Ninjago as my fourth best seller during December (Star Wars and Lord of the Rings being 1 and 2 respectively). However, I offer much less Chima in my store. I sold about 50% of my inventory during December, more than twice that of any other theme. And, it beat out Super Heroes figures surprisingly. This means there is a market out there.
      Sleepers, Sleepers, Sleepers
      There is definitely no way to tell something is a "sleeper". And ina  lot of the ways, if you advertise a set on this site as a sleeper, it immediately becomes "awake" as we saw with the Funhouse. However, no matter how many blogs I write, these sets from this theme are going to be overlooked by the majority of investors. There will be (I will speculate on which ones in upcoming articles) sets, mark my words, that experience staggering secondary market growth and cause 95% of us on here to go "Why the hell didn't I grab that when I walked by an isle of 50 of them". And there will be much more than just one set doing this.
      Furthering this argument, this theme as I had said will be pushed and pushed and pushed by Lego. Maybe the first set of retirees don't jump right at the beginning and a few of us get worried. But IF this theme does take off, the sets you are seeing from this first run that are or will be retiring soon may just become the holy grail. Just like the early Dragons from the Ninjago series, you will see a few sets benefit from the theme becoming huge and these sets becoming sought after because they are so rare (Think the Market Street effect on a smaller stage).
      So what are the downsides? Well, there are risks with everything. The theme is unproven for sure. There are TONS of sets which could make it much harder to pick a winner and also dilute the pool a bit as things may not be as recognizable. The minifigures do have a lot going on and maybe Children love simplicity. Perhaps these are not actually selling well at all and it is only a matter of time before Lego drops the whole theme altogether.
      In conclusion, as a lot of investment risks do, our choices come down to "am I willing to take a leap of faith on this theme based on what we see so far?". I know my answer to that question: I don't want to be kicking myself later.
    • Veegs
      First, yes, yes, I know the Coast Guard isn't actually part of the navy, although did you know that at any time the President can transfer the USCG to the Department of the Navy, or that Congress can do this during times of war?  So, accuracy aside, just let it slide as it makes for a better title.  Who doesn't like Village People references in the Lego investing world?
      Now, down to nuts and bolts and anchors.  The City Theme doesn't get a lot of posts and discussion, which is just crazy as its current CAGR%(Compound Annual Growth Rate) is a hefty 20.22%.  This dwarfs much more discussed themes (I'm looking at you, Star Wars) that don't provide rates of return (SW, still you at 8.24%) and offer many possibilities for the small to mid-sized investor.  One of the drawbacks for an investor might be the sheer number of City sets that are available at retail at any given time - where to put your hard earned capital? Luckily, the City theme has plenty of sub themes that seem to rotate regularly and might even offer better opportunities than simply closing your eyes and randomly throwing sets into your cart.  In addition, City themes are available at many retailers and I've never had trouble tracking down City sets with sales/promotions quite easily.  So, let's take a look at a really great sub theme that is currently available at retail right now - Coast Guard sets.
      A little light reading at Brickipedia provides a nice snapshot of this particular theme, which has been around in some form or another since 1978!  It turns out that Lego decided to mark my birth in '78 with this theme - thanks, Lego!  Feel free to explore some of the really old sets if you'd like, but for the purposes of this post, I'm going to focus on the 2008 sets for comparison purposes.  One key and noticeable difference between the 2008 and 2013 sets is that this release doesn't have a 'base' like the 4210 Coast Guard Platform.  It would have been nice to have an updated reissue of this set with a higher piece count.  Another factor to consider is that the most recent BrickPicker information is clouded by the reissue factor - since the release of the 2013 Coast Guard sets, it seems that the 2008 sets are losing value.
      As with all City sub themes, there is a danger in a reissue.  It seems the Coast Guard theme is pretty popular and gets regular installments, so I'd expect another round of sets in 2017 or 2018.  It seems likely that the current range of sets will be available for all of 2014 and might become hard to find or EOL(End of Line) by late 2014 or early 2015, giving a savvy investor about a two year window to allow for appreciation and then sales before another reissue.  I'm not advising a basement full of each set in the range, but I think it would be wise to grab the two biggest sets (60014 Coast Guard Patrol and 60015 Coast Guard Plane) over the course of the next year when you see them at a solid discount.  I think if you can get them at 20-30% off you'll be pleasantly rewarded with a solid ROI%(Return on Investment).  A conservative expectation for these two larger sets might be 75% growth from retail two years post-EOL with the possibility of growth over 100% from retail bringing it in line with the sets from 2008.  If you don't mind the hassle of lots of shipments and the related pains of selling lots of little sets with a good ROI% but not much total profit, feel free to invest in the smaller sets when on sale.  Just make sure you're willing to do a fair amount of work for a small total profit!
      In short, it is time to get your sea legs.  All aboard!  Next stop, Profitville!  
    • Guest
      10230 Mini Modulars Set Information
      Name: 10230 Mini Modulars
      Theme: Exclusives, Advanced Models
      Year Released: 2012
      Pieces: 1356
      Minifigures: None
      Price (MSRP): $79.99 US / $99.99 CAN / $99.99 AUS / £59.99 UK / 69.99€ EU
      Summer 2012 brought us a unique and exclusive set known as 10230 Mini Modulars. The set was not only an exclusive to the Lego Brand Retail and Shop @ Home, but was also only available for VIP cardholders. Capturing the essence of the first five modulars released by Lego (Market Street, Cafe Corner, Green Grocer, Fire Brigade, and Grand Emporium) in tiny scale, the set provides a much more affordable alternative than the real sets. It recently gone out of stock at Lego.com and it would appear its retirement is imminent. Therefore, it seemed like the perfect time to write up an article about the set to help induce even more panic buying (insert evil grin here). Jump right into the world of miniature models and mega profits!
      The Build

      Opening the box reveals five neatly organized bags, one for each of the buildings (numbered in the order that each of them was released, starting with Cafe Corner and Market Street which were both 2007 releases). The first instruction booklet covers bags 1-3, with the second covering 4-5. The instructions are cleanly designed and contain the standard part inventory (at the back of book 2) and piece box for each step.

      The construction of the modulars is a slow and piece intensive process considering their size. I would say the vast majority of pieces are small plates and tiles, which makes it a nice parts pack. There is a bit of repetition here and there (like in the windows for the Grand Emporium) but the true source of frustration for builders will likely come from the small size of the pieces, which can make construction difficult in some areas. However, the set uses a huge amount of interesting techniques that make it a very enjoyable build overall. From the SNOT used for Market Street, to the bell of the Fire Brigade or the lifesaver lined with skeleton legs on Cafe Corner, the set is an excellent lesson on how  to capture the spirit of larger models in micro scale. The basic pictures in this review don't do the set justice; when you build it you really can feel that the designer had a lot of fun with it (not to mention did a kick-butt job), and it will make you appreciate the detail in the buildings a whole lot more. Lego doesn't do micro builds that much, and after completing the set you will be hungry for more.
      The Completed Model
      Once you finish building, you are left with five excellent models. The set does lack the playability of minifigure scale sets, but I still found myself fooling around with the buildings trying to find the best arrangement for a good twenty minutes (I settled on the one above). Real modulars are instantly impressive due to their size but only upon closer examination is the detail seen. With the mini modulars, the high detail is apparent from first glance, making it a great desktop display for AFOLs. Unfortunately I do not have a full size modular to compare them to size-wise, but this picture from the BrickBlogger gives you an idea of how the buildings live up to their bigger brothers:
       
       
      Nice, right? Even the backs of the building remain true to their larger forms - I really like the fire escape on the Green Grocer and you may or may not have noticed already that each mini modulars' 8x8 plate base is the same color as their inspiration's base plate (normal modulars are built on 32x32 baseplates), which is why some are different colors than each other. The picture below shows off the generous amount of extras:

      Cafe Corner (Based on 10182)

      First up is my personal favorite of the five, Cafe Corner. The full size model of this sucker costs you over 1000 bucks with current market prices and contains over 2000 pieces but this fist-sized rendition uses probably a tenth of those pieces. The construction is fun and introduces builders to some of the techniques that will be used throughout the rest of the models like the SNOT used on the second floor or the teeth used as windows. It's a genius creation and a worthy cornerstone to the set. It should be noted  that it contains the only two exclusive pieces in the model, the printed "HOTEL" 1x6 plate and 6 1x2 reddish brown plates with door rails. Well technically, the reddish brown plates do appear in another set, the Comic-Con Bag End, but I thought it would be worth mentioning. A great start to a great set!            
      Market Street (Based on 10190)

      The second model is a rendition of the 2007 Factory exclusive, Market Street. Like Cafe Corner, the original has appreciated nicely and fetches bids in the quadruple digits. Including it in the set caused a bit of controversy among Lego fans who insisted it was not a true modular because it was released under the Factory line. I always found 10190 Market Street to be the most messy  of the modulars, and the mini version's clean lines do a lot to correct this. Since all three floors are built with the same SNOT technique, it is the only one that you can break apart into each floor. It has really grown on me since I built it, but it does seem like the proportions have been stretched a bit from the original to make it seem more like an Amsterdam canal house; tall and skinny. Which is totally fine, but seems like a bit of a blip in the otherwise authentic representation of the building.
      Green Grocer (Based on 10185)

      Now we come to the Green Grocer, which was voted as the favorite modular  of AFOLs on Eurobricks. It has lots of cool details like the fruit basket out front and the fire hydrant (that's what the 2 red studs are out front if you're wondering) and is another solid build (with lots of delicious 1x1 clear bricks!). My only gripe is that the upper window doesn't have any glass in it. I know, it's just nitpicking considering everything else is pretty much perfect and they would have to make a new glass piece to fit it, but it makes the model feel incomplete. Excellent build, otherwise.
                 Fire Brigade (Based on 10197)

      Fire Brigade is the fourth installment in the set. It is quite impressive like the others, but I'd say it has the worst build (mostly 1x1 plate stacking, which gets annoying after awhile), and the bell roof is ridiculously oversized (if you applied that proportion to the real set, the bell roof would be 16 studs wide instead of 8). If you can get over that, it's just another top notch mini-build. 10197 has been making significant buzz in the investing world recently as it appears to be finally retiring after a 4 year run (all the above ones have already retired), making it an even more valuable addition to this set. 
      Grand Emporium (Based on 10211)

      The grand finale in this epic micro building symphony is the Grand Emporium. The full scale model has been criticized here and there for being too bland, but the mini model doesn't suffer from that problem. The second and third floor windows are a bit repetitive, yes, but the creation has enough details to recover (window cleaners, billboard, flags, ice cream stand, mail box, etc.). Like the fullscale one, it really looks like a decked out Macy's store (or the Bay for us Canadians). If you are looking for trans green windows in the real model, you can stop because there aren't any. There wasn't enough space to accurately represent both the clear windows and dark green trimming in the model, so I guess they combined the two to just make trans dark green windows. Smart move in my opinion, and superb finish to the set. Yeesh, I'm running out of positive adjectives to describe this set!
      Well, there you go. It's a beautiful set, and like I said before any (or all) of the five models make for great desk displays at work or home (even teasing coworkers will want to check them out). The price is a bit of a drawback, but piece wise, it's excellent value at 5.8 cents per piece. You may be surprised that the set is bigger than sets like 10213 Shuttle Adventure (1204 pcs, 8.3c per piece) piece wise. That said, a person arguing for price per gram to become the standard for calculating value would point to this set as an example, as most pieces are tiny and you aren't necessarily getting more plastic even though you are getting more pieces (it is 8.03 cents per gram compared to 10213 Shuttle Adventure's 5.1 cents per gram). I would give the set a 8.5/10. It's a must have for AFOLs and building-savvy KFOLs, especially those who always wanted a modular but found them to expensive. It's a standalone set and won't fit into your regular city, but that's fine because it's remarkable by itself.

      Investment Analysis
      So, it makes a great display piece, but does it have what it takes to stand out in the aftermarket? I would definitely think so, for a variety of reasons. Firstly, the set is exclusive within being exclusive (exclusiception, anyone?), as it is restricted to only Lego VIP members and sold only from Lego directly. I'd estimate that the production for the set is in the tens of thousands. Additionally, it had only been available for about a year until last week (Dec. 2013) when it went out of stock on Lego.com worldwide, after being on discount for about a month. If it doesn't come back in stock (which seems likely or else it would not have been discounted), that is relatively short production run for an exclusive, especially a modular-related exclusive.
      Secondly, not only is the set a distinct representation of one of the most praised and poplular themes among AFOLs - the modulars - but it is very rare for Lego to release microscale sets (if you'd like to learn more about modulars as investments, check out this article by FCBarcelona101: http://www.brickpicker.com/lego-modulars-still-worthy-investments/). To get an idea of the kind of growth that this will set receives come its EOL, let's look at the returns of similar sets. The chart below compares the set to the growth experienced by the full scale modulars it features, and three exclusive microscale factory sets from 2005:

      The chart shows that retired sets similar to 10230 Mini Modulars have performed extraordinarily, often holding double digit CAGRs (Compounded Annual Growth Rates). 5526 Skyline, which is probably the most similar set as it is also made up of microscale renditions of existing source material like the statue of liberty, has seen huge growth, and the three retired modulars featured in the set are the holy grails of Lego investing. Granted, 5525 and 5524 haven't performed that well but I would consider the appeal and building techniques of the Mini Modulars far superior.
      Another thing that should be mentioned is that Lego is likely to release another Mini Modular set next year when they have another five modulars to miniaturize. The serial appeal worked wonders for the original modular  line, and I think if they released another it would without a doubt raise the popularity of 10230.
      Part-outters would definitely be able to profit with the set simply because of its low price per piece ratio of 5.8 cents per piece, despite its lack of many exclusive parts, but at this point I would advise against parting out the set in favor of selling it sealed. Due to its AFOL appeal, interesting building techniques, unique microscale medium, exclusivity, and ties to the original modular line, I think very good things are in store for this set, and will predict a rough 5-year CAGR of 27.5%, resulting in a value of $269.51 in 2018.

      Depending on how accurately I estimated the appeal of the set, it could go higher or lower, but this mini set is definitely packed with some mega potential. Get 'em before they're gone!
       
    • Scissorino
      Collectible Minifigures (CMFs) – they have a lot to answer for, don’t they? I’m sure I’m not the only one who has been drawn back into the grips of TLG by these ‘cheap’ Lego sets? ‘Cheap’ in inverted commas because you never buy one, do you? Every man has a part of his brain dedicated to hoarding and collecting and ‘having the full set’ – every kid does too. CMFs are the work of some scheming genius.
      The Guardian printed an article in 2011 on the success and effect of the CMF series:
      “Lego said the runaway success of a range of £2 lucky dip figurines aimed at those with pocket money to burn had provided the building blocks for a record year for the Danish toymaker.
      With a cast of characters that includes an Egyptian queen and an evil dwarf, "Minifigures" have taken UK playgrounds by storm, helping the brand to report growth of more than 10% in the UK for the six months to 30 June.
      Drew Brazer, UK managing director, said the inexpensive Minifigures were "accessible" toys for children to collect.”
      According to the free ‘Minifigs Collector’ app (search your app store) and their useful statistics section I know that I have 71 of all 186 Collectible Minifigures (38%) which seems not many, except for the fact I have 71 of the things. Even at retail price (£1.99 here in the UK) I’ve spent £141.29 (some I’ve paid a little more for, although I NEVER pay much more than the original RRP) – in my books that’s a fair bit of cash.
      So what’s the draw? Well, I know what the draw is for me, and in presenting to you ‘The Best Collectible Minifigures of All Time’ I hope to present my case as to why the CMFs have done so well,  and why I (and you) have so many of them. To provide some method, I am going to choose one minifigure per series (a la Silent Mode’s original blog post).
      Series 1 (2010)

      Winner: Super Wrestler
      Why? I’m not even a wrestling fan and never have been but the quirky blue head element with the printed face and mask is highly appealing in its originality. There are plenty of other contenders in this, the original series; a caveman, a zombie, a ninja, a cowboy...
      The diver and the skater both seem a bit boring considering both have been done before in various themes.
      Series 2 (2010)

      Winner: Spartan Warrior
      3 years after an interest in Sparta was reignited by the film ‘300’ this figure was bound to be popular with its iconic (and never seen before) Greek helmet element and muscular printed torso. Which movie or comic fan or history buff wouldn’t want a mini replica of King Leonidas on their shelf? I do (and I haven’t got him yet). Again, many contenders in this early series with a green-faced witch, a vampire, a mime (and his 3 different heads and beret) and a mariachi guy (a new sombrero and maracas).
      There were some pretty weak figures here too: a life guard/Baywatch babe, a weightlifter, a pop star to name the main culprits despite all having new elements (a float, a barbell and a microphone respectively).
      Series 3 (2011)

      Winner: Rapper
      An easy one for me, as a Hip Hop fan. With his color-coordinated new-style baseball cap, microphone and boombox what more could you want? Since Kanye West re-popularized Shutter Shades in 2007 they were everywhere, particularly during the recent-to-series-3 2010 World Cup – to have a Lego head wearing Shutters? That’s cool.
      The other better figures are the Pilot, the Fisherman, the Elf and the highly original Gorilla Suit Guy.
      Series 3 does seem to be the weakest series so far – a male ‘Tribal Chief’ (Lego had these way back in the nineties in the Western theme), a female snowboarder (the Sports theme was full of these), a weird ‘Space Villain’ (looks like the result of a 4 year old playing with minifigure parts despite its cool Blacktron reference), a boring sumo wrestler, a female tennis player (yawn) and a race car driver (how many of these has Lego produced before?).
      Series 4 (2011)

      Winner: The Monster
      It was between the HAZMET Guy (even though I can only guess at what one is in real life) and The Monster won for me. I like films and literature so having Shelley’s Frankenstein’s Monster in minifigure form is a very good thing. It must be the case that the success of figures such as this one, the Werewolf (series 4), the Crazy Scientist (also series 4), the Zombie (series 1), the Mummy (series 3) and the Witch and the Vampire (both series 2) prompted the very popular 2012 Monster Fighters Theme as all of these figures reappear in another form in the sets.
      A fairly strong series all in all with the presence of ANOTHER skateboarder, a footballer and a female surfer being the main let-downs (all re-hashes of previous theme figures, albeit with a little more realism and style). The Artist and Kimono Girl receive honourable mentions here.
      Series 1-4: A Summary
      Why did I choose the figures I chose? Two simple reasons it boils down to:
      1) the figure connects to my personal interests.
      2) the figure contains new or interesting elements.
      As we go through the next series, we will see if this continues to be the case. Meanwhile, from series 1-4, which are your favorite minifigures and why?
    • Fcbarcelona101
      So, you have been buying LEGO sets non stop over the past few months, maybe even years, and you have noticed your Brickfolio has increased in value by 10,000% (exaggerating just a bit here). Or maybe you are a short term investor looking to make some "quick" money to fund your own collection or long term investing choices. It can be sort of difficult to decide how to start selling some of your inventory, as well as where to get the most cost effective materials so that you end up with more money in your pocket and less in other people's, So I decided to write this very basic guide to help some of you start selling ASAP! Hope you find it useful.
      Note: I will continue making the assumption that you will be selling your sets on eBay, as that is by far the most common marketplace talked about in the forum.
      1- Materials
         One of the most important decisions you have to make before you start listing items left and right is where to get your materials. Things like packing paper, boxes, envelopes and so on are an essential part of your LEGO business, and you will need to carefully evaluate exactly what you need and where to get it for the lowest price possible.
      First off, you need to evaluate what's the core of your business inventory, as shipping/packing materials will vary greatly from seller to seller. If most of your inventory consists of polybags or loose minifigures, then most of of your packages will need to be bubble mailers and small ziploc style bags. On the other hand, people who focus on set will have to research a little bit more and purchase a variety of boxes that fit a particular LEGO set size.
      Following you will find a list of what I currently use for each particular type of item in my inventory, as well as a small description and where to get them (With their own BP Affiliate link in case you decide to purchase!)
      Polybags, loose minifigures and individual bricks/parts These three categories fit perfectly under one section, as they often require the exact same amount of effort as well as shipping materials. If you have sold any of the three items mentioned above, you know that most of the time you will need to work with tight profit margins, hence the importance of picking the right vendor and quantity. Most of the time, this involves purchasing larger quantities even when you might not have an immediate need for all.
      Here are my choices:
      - 2x2 Self lock bags ($ 6.86 / 1,000 units / $ 0.007 per unit)

      As you can see, these little bags are extremely economical once you calculate the price per unit, basically adding less than 1 cent per sale. Of course, these are not essential to be able to ship figures or bricks, but I would strongly encourage you to give them a chance for a couple of reasons. First, depending on the type of envelope you use, your minifigures may not be sufficiently protected against the elements (rain, etc); this can have a very negative effect on the condition of the figure, especially those that include unique elements like capes and such. Second, these little bags make a seller look more professional and careful in the eyes of the buyer, a couple of factors that might help you with future sales.
      - 4x8 Kraft Bubble Mailers ( $12.10 / 100 units / $ 0.12 per unit)

      Unlike the previous item, this is one thing you really can't avoid having. There is no best way to mail small items than small bubble mailers, as they require very little postage and help protect your items from damage during shipping. At around $ 0.12 per mailer, I really believe you can't go wrong with these, and it would make more sense to even get the 500 ct if you really have that much in figures or bricks. It is important to note that 4x8 mailers can also be used to ship most polybags, while you might need to get a larger mailer for special ones like the mini Camper Van.
      Sets With sets, things get a little bit tricky as there are multiple different sizes that make selecting a proper box a little more time consuming. Thankfully, some sizes will allow you to fit a variety of them without needing to get 3 or 4 different types of boxes, and that's personally they way I have chose to go with in order to reduce the time I spend worrying about that. I deal mostly with 28x16x7 boxes that fit most sets in the medium to large range, while recycling and using USPS free supplies to ship the smaller sets.
      There has been a lot of talk about where to buy shipping boxes, and we usually hear about Uline, Staples or similar stores. If you are going to buy more than 20 boxes I would definitely recommend to order at Staples to pick them up in store for free, while you can always choose either them or Uline if you are getting a pretty large order shipped  in order to spread out shipping costs.
      Most of the time though, small to medium sellers may need less than 100 boxes, and for that amount Amazon actually offers a nice option to purchase them (usually with Prime shipping) for pretty much the same price as bulk sellers like Uline. If you check the link below, you will be able to purchase 20 boxes (28*16*7) for around $45. These are pretty good quality and the ones I personally use more often.
      - 28x16x7 Shipping Boxes ($44.87 / 20 units / $2.24 per unit)

      Compare to Uline ($47.8 same Qty and Size)
      - Scotch Shipping Tape ( $ 9.97 / 4 Rolls (215 yards total) / $2.49 per unit)

      Another essential item, shipping tape. I have tried a variety of different brands and types and have found that this particular one is the one I liked the most. It might not be the cheapest one out there, especially if you search on eBay and get some generic tape, but they match what I'm looking for in respects to quality and duration. Unlike some other brands, I really don't need to use that much tape to completely secure  a heavy shipping box, and that gives me the peace of mind it will get safely to its destination.
      As said before, you will be able to find cheaper versions out there, but in my opinion the quality of most is sub-par.
      Misc. The following is completely optional and not really needed, but I have been using it for a while and find that it saves me time and sort of streamlines the process of packing both sets or smaller items.
      - Avery shipping labels ($ 26.95 / 200 ct / $ 0.13 per unit)

      These labels are really high quality, and even though they only come in the 200 ct packet for Laser printer (50 ct for inkjet) I have been using them on my inkjet printer for quite a while with no problem whatsoever. I really like to just print the label and immediately paste it on the package without having to tape over the label to attach it, and these have the added bonus of blocking any other label previously applied to the box. Basically, you can recycle any of the boxes you receive by simply pasting the new label over the old one. (Not all self adhesive labels do this well). For an extra 13 cents per sale, I find them a really good value.
      ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      And that's it for now. Again, these are the materials I personally use, so feel free to add your own recommendations in the comments section. I hope that at least some of our most new sellers are able to benefit from this basic information.
      Thanks for reading
    • Migration
      While lurking in the shadows of this site I've read many differing takes on the ins and outs of investing in LEGO. The majority of those opinions center arround either long term investing or short term flipping and which sets are best suited for either. While those are both worthy endevours and I would not discourage anyone from either pursuit one angle of investing seems to be overlooked in most of the posts that I have seen. The missing strategy is buying LEGO in bulk. Where to get it, what to do with it, and how to use it to build your investment. Just as with any other investment strategy bulk has its own pros and cons, I hope to cover a few of them here. Full disclosure, I began my money making career on LEGO by flipping bulk lots and still spend much of my investing resources doing so.
      I've always prefered bad news first so lets start with the cons:
      1) TIME. With bulk, in general terms, the more time you spend on it the more money you make. At a bare minimum any bulk lot needs at least a simple hose down and a quick sort to remove as many non LEGO as possible. A fbulk lot treated in that manner would bring, on average, $5.00 per pound on eBay. To make any real money you need to spend the time to sort. Bricks sorted by color usually bring around $10.00 per pound. This assumes that you removed all minifigs and minifig parts. The real money in bulk is made by bringing sets back from the dead. The last loose 3181 I sold went for $46.00, had I sold it by weight I could have expected about $7.50. It took about 3 hours of work to sort/find all the pieces, but the extra return made up for it.
      2) Bulk is DIRTY. The last lot I bought smelled faintly of cat urine. I always wear gloves at first and wash using dish soap in a 5 gallon bucket, then rinse in a pasta strainer that is market LEGO so I don't use it for food. Some people wash in a sink or bathtub, but I have seen how hard it is to clear a clog. Also make sure to dry your LEGO. They will get moldy. Special note about bleach. DO NOT USE BLEACH. It will make your LEGO brittle and worthless.
      3) Hard to find/Competition. Good bulk lots can be difficult to find. As more people discover how much their old toys are worth this will only get worse. My primary tool for finding lots is Craigslist. With all its quirks and scams I've found it provides the most consistant results. Lots can also be found on eBay or bricklink, but you will pay more for them. I have yet to travel around to random garage/yard/rumage sales, but they also have potential to yield results.
      4) Unknown results. With bulk you never really know what you have until you dig in. Although, that's also one of the things that I like about it.
      And now for the positive aspects.
      1) Higher returns. The best bulk lot I ever found I paid $50 for. It consisted of 5 kitchen trash bags full of bricks. When I was done with it, after fees, I made $1,447. Time wise, I spent 80 hours sorting, cleaning and building. I will not touch a bulk lot unless I think I can make 3 times my investment. Most times when all sorting is done and fees are paid I hope to make about $15 per hour.
      2) Find COOL sets. I have 2 kids, a wife, and a mortgage. I don't have much in the way of disposable income, as such, I could never afford 10144, 6211, 7261, 7783, 6210, 4848, 4842...You get the idea. I have built all of those and more out of various lots that I have found. Once in a while I've found a gem that I couldn't part with such as a pristine (loose) 4195 that now holds a place of prominence above a bookcase.
      3) Low entry price. With patience a bulk lot can be found for almost any budget. Start small and reinvest the profits to work up to larger/better lots.
      4) Learn about LEGO. Part of the fun in building large numbers of sets is learning about LEGO. You start to see similarities between sets like the builds of 7260 and 7259. You eventualy can tell a Mega Blok by color and  can spot a valuable minifig (or a fake) a mile away.
      I'm sure that I've missed a ton on each side and the pros and cons of mint sets vs random bulk can be argued for ever, but for those just getting into investing in LEGO or those with limited funds bulk lots offer a viable alternative to start and a way to grow equity to invest in the more expensive boxed sets.
    • Veegs
      For those of you who read my post about ebay powerselling (from what feels like 10 years ago) you'll note I had grand ambitions to become a powerseller by this Christmas season to reduce the cut ebay takes from each sale.  I planned on adding more polybags, smaller sets and the like to boost my total sales numbers.  I didn't have enough complete sets that were retired or purchased sufficiently below retail (Canadian retail) to move, so I was hoping to go smaller and faster, Ninjago-like, if you will, on my quest to get my total sales over 100 in the year over year period.  What follows is a cautionary tale:
      Early 2013: All is well!  I scored loads of polybags at cheap prices, tried to choose ones that I thought were cool or had minifigs.  I began listing them and started to make a few sales.  I smiled a lot, despite the cold weather, and visions of success in 10 or so short months seemed imminent, a foregone conclusion.
      Spring 2013: My decision to stock up on Avengers polys, a few Friends polys and Monster Fighters polys is paying off.  I've boosted month over month sales to about 45-50 and am halfway to my goal with a whole lot of time left.
      Late Spring 2013: We had a baby.  I added another part time job.  We decided to quickly have me finish the basement renovations so that we could put our house for sale in the future as babies require almost as much storage as a part-time Lego business.  I had some sets to part out with minifigs that were reasonably desirable and could quickly add to my selling totals, but somehow that never happened.  I suspect it was baby related.
      Fall 2013: I was around 82 total sales in year over year, had a finished basement but powerselling status seemed unreachable.  I started to list bigger sets for the holidays anyway, both on my account and my wife's, admitting defeat.
      I never lost money, and in fact made some sweet bank this holiday season, but I didn't maximize my Lego ROI%, falling short of becoming a Powerseller.  In a perfect world, those Harry Potter Castle sales would have left a little more money in my pocket rather than in Mr. Ebay's, but a few too many challenges came up during the year to derail me.
      How can this apply to you?  I suppose the Lego investing lesson to take away is that the plans you lay from year to year regarding investing/flipping/holding/parting out, etc., can be completely changed in ways you could never imagine when you make the initial purchases or decisions.  I tend to preach conservative investing, despite how enticing sales & deals are.  You have no idea what the future holds and having a manageable and reasonable plan will allow you to still make profits even if things don't go according to plan.
      Veegs


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