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    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      Looking back at the individual series that Lego has done that now make up the Lego Super Heroes Collection (Batman, Spiderman, etc.) we see some of the most successful Lego sets of all time. Though not too many of the current ones have retired, the ones that did have not disappointed in the least so far. Captain America's Avenging Cycle has been one of the shortest investments to doubling or tripling your money that many of us have ever seen. The Hulk Helicarrier - really a weak set besides the hulk, almost doubled during Christmas after retiring just shortly before. The Cat-Cycle Chase has done great as well - although it somehow came back into stock (which was a blessing for me as I bought about 25 and now its gone again).
      So we know Super Heroes is a super theme - what sets should be focused on this year? Well, the easy answer is all of them. There are so many sets and it seems as if every one will be a winner - even the lowly Loki's Cosmic Cube has done well despite something even close to an exclusive figure or piece. But I am definitely not going to just blindly buy, so without further  rambling, here are the sets I am targeting for next year:
      76000 Arctic Batman

      Target Level: Medium
      How often do we get a 20$ set, with 3 exclusive minifigures, that are highly likely to stay exclusive? Not very often. That really vaults the investment value of this set way up, almost regardless of what licensed theme it was in and it should really be a no-brainer for any Lego investor. All three minifigures are pretty well done, and the Bat Boat is excellent, and really matches the rest of the Batman vehicles in the theme (the Batwing and BatMobile). The Arctic Batman is really the best out of all of them as well as it completely contrasts every other Batman Minifigure. I have to think Batman fans will be all over this. So what is not to like? Well, for one Aquaman. Yes he is exclusive, but does anyone really like Aquaman that much? I think he is well done, but I almost wonder if this set would be just as popular without him. In a way he almost doesn't really fit in the set a ton anyway. But, again, I don't think we can argue with another exclusive figure. I also question how much non-mega--Batman fans will really care about an Arctic Batman. I don't think the last Mr. Freeze movie did all that great and I am not sure many younger people will really be wowed by this set with no real tie in they know about. Never-the-less, at 20$ this shouldn't be much of a risk either way.
      Target Price: $15
      Target Sale price: $40
      76004 Spider-Cycle Chase

      Target Level: High
      A super 20$ set, as Lego has seemed to given us a lot of in the Super Heroes theme. At the moment, two of the three figures are exclusive - although they could be back in another set later on - and the set itself is built really well. Venom really makes this set as the most desired figure, but the spider cycle and Fury's Car are nice little vehicles, and we all know how well vehicles go. This set is not going to be the best one of the Spiderman Theme I think, and probably not the best of the Super Heroes 20$ sets. So why do you want a lot of them?
      Well, the biggest reason for me is Venom. The set itself will be a winner, and a solid one either way. But, if Venom is not reproduced in another set, this could become one of those legendary sets that just grows at an insane rate based on one great figure. Everyone will want Venom that loves Spiderman, and with more movies most likely on the horizon, this will definitely boost the set. So its worth the risk to grab 20-30 of this set if I can and make sure I have a ton just in case Venom never shows himself again. I would suggest you do the same - especially if you can find this set for 15$ or so. This set will also have major flip potential during the Christmas season as well, so win-win there.
      Target Price: $17.50
      Target Sale Price: $45.00
      76005 Spiderman Daily bugle Showdown

      Target Level: High
      This set is the gem of the Spiderman Sets, a set that I think is even better than the Dr. Ock set. If you like Exclusive Super Heroes figures, this is the set for you. Yes, you have the same old Spiderman, but then you get 4 exclusives: Nova, Dr. Doom, Beatle, and J. Jonah Jameson. I love all 4 of the figures too. All of them are extremely well done, and the color contrast in all of them really makes the set stand out. Chances are, most if not all of these figures will stay exclusives to this set so I see it as a pretty safe bet. The building itself is also done really well and the set sells really well without minifigures for me which I feel is always a testament to how well a set is done non-minifigure wise. All of the minifigures are worth at least 10$ each on Ebay; if you can make back the retail price for a set just off the figures, you know that set is a big time winner.
      Really the only tough thing about the set is it has not been on sale a ton and has been out of stock a lot as well. This means it has been a little hard for me to pick up at decent prices, but this also is a testament to its popularity. This set will be a huge gainer and you will kick yourself if it retires without you picking up some of them.
      Target Price: $35
      Target Sale Price: $150
      76006 Iron Man Extremis Boat

      Target Level: High
      This set is a hard one to figure out. It is a so-so set in some aspects, and just excellent in others. I don't love the boat, but it is built really well. The Aldrich Killian minifigure is, in my opinion, dull and the Ebay Sold listings prove that. However, the Iron Man Mark 46 figure and the War Machine figure (another exclusive) are tremendous. So in some ways, it is hard to really peg exactly what this set will do.
      However, I love this set for the same reason as the Cycle Chase: The exclusive minifigures - and really just War Machine. This minifigure is awesome and could easily be the only one. With as well as the Iron Patriot minfigure has done, I think this one will follow right in its footsteps. I have parted a few of these out and have had no issue getting $12 (from a 20$ set!!!) for that one figure. This figure will carry this set big time, and as dull as the Killian figure is, people will want him to complete the movie scene in their minds. This set will double extremely quickly right after its gone in my mind, and will end up being a pretty solid gainer - maybe the best of the Ironman line depending on what other sets are made - and if there are anymore movies (and we all hope so).
      Target Price: $17.50
      Target Sale Price: $55
      6862 Power Lex

      Target Level: Medium
      Though I do like this set, I am not near as high on it as a ton of other people. I really struggle to believe in the Superman Sets. For one, they are really tough to part out and make any money because all the figures are in about every other set. There really aren't a bunch of different versions of Zod or Superman. Plus, I think the popularity of Superman has really fallen off in the past couple of years with the last several movies. A lot of people liked the last movie, which is really what these sets were based on, but I still do not see the popularity that the other Super Heroes themes have.
      On top of that, a lot of the sets just don't look that great. However, this one is the exception. First, you have an awesome figure in Wonder Woman. She is exclusive and really there is a good chance she will stay that way. Then you have Lex, which is so-so, and the same superman as normal. The Power Armor is pretty nice, and a really cool and different way to display a minifigure. Because of the minifigures and the low price point, I am going to make sure I have a decent amount of this set. However, I am not going to go crazy on it. I am not fully convinced it will be near as big a winner as the other 20$ sets in this series.
      Target Price: $16.00
      Target Sale Price: $45
      6863, 6864, and 6860
      I bet most of you were thinking - where are these sets? Well for one, I really think they will be gone mid-year. More importantly, I have already stashed a good deal of these and really will not be targeting them - more just grabbing them if a good deal comes up. I assume most the rest of us are in the same boat and because these are really only going to be available from places at retail or above, I doubt most of us are going to be buying a lot of them.
      However, if you do not have any - go find them now. All three are huge winners and I don't want anyone here to miss out on three sets that may be the best gainers of the Super Heroes line.  
    • Grolim
      [box type="info" ]This blog follows on from my previous blogs (May, July, September, and October) presenting the top 20 sets in terms of secondary market price growth according to the data we have available here on Brickpicker.[/box] Again, here are some notes on the scope before I begin:
      I have not restricted the qualifying sets by size or age or any other dimension Information is based on US prices only Not all sets across all themes are included as I have zero interest in Bionicle/Hero Factory for example so have only gathered data on a few of those sets.  (I just didn’t have the willpower to gather all the data for them really).  Most of the rest are covered though. I tried to look at as many sets as possible, but there is a chance a few may have been missed, if you spot some that should/could be included please let me know The Last Rank column indicates changes in ranking from the last Top 20 Blog (Oct data)   One Month Growth (change in Market Price from last month)

      Almost a completely clean slate again, made up of entirely new entrants and that’s not really a surprise given volatility in prices when only looking at a change from 1 month to the next.  2175 Wyplash stays on the list jumping up 11 places to take top spot.  The recently retired Ninjago set is doing quite nicely.  76000 Arctic Batman also manages to cling to a position on the monthly list. It will be interesting to see if any of these sets can maintain some of this growth longer term.  Which leads us nicely onto our next time period:   Six Month Growth (change in Market Price from May 2013 )

      3187 Butterfly Beauty Shop gets bumped from the top spot of the 6 month returns list tumbling 6 places thanks to a return of -14% in the last month as no doubt investors look to take profits. 6865 Captain America Cycle jumps to top spot with continued excellent price growth since its retirement mid 2013.  Will it continue that run? Lots of new entrants again, some with pretty low volumes, though others are there that really deserve their position.   2175 Wyplash comes in at number 3 thanks to taking that top spot for monthly growth in the section above.  5882, 70107, and 3939 all new entrants straight into the top 5 on the back of solid demand.  A couple of other wave 1 Friends sets, 4529 Iron Man, and 21001 John Hancock Center are also notable new entrants to the top 20 6 monthly growth list.   One Year Growth (change in MarketPrice from November 2012)

      6808 Galaxy Trekkor still at the top but can be discounted due to extremely low volumes, though there are plenty of others that command respect. The well publicized 9465 Zombies regains a little ground after recent slips.  4529 Iron Man takes a big leap up 10 spots to number 3.  A few of the sets on the list look like they were 2012 releases that have now been around for a year and make the time criteria and have experienced that post EOL jump.  Plenty of other great sets on this list that you’d have done well to buy at market price one year ago.   Two Year Growth (change in Market Price from November 2011)

      Now into the two year time frame we begin to remove some of the short term fluctuations that can occur with some of the narrower time periods.  21001 John Hancock Center gained another 15% in the month and that was good enough to push it back into top spot (was there in Sep as well).  Boy I’d love to turn the clock back 2 years and grab a few of those for a 266% ROI ! 7936 Level Crossing is also an interesting set.  It was number one on this list back in May & July.  It then hit a flat spot, dropping to number 19 in September and off the list in October, but it’s now back in at number 4 thanks to another spurt of growth.  Maybe people are expanding their train set layouts for Xmas?    Retail Growth (change in Market Price from Retail MSRP)

      Now for the full measure of growth from the retail value of the set.  Obviously a set with a $0 listed retail price like all the promo giveaways etc are excluded as we can’t divide by zero, so that has weeded out a few of the small polybags or very very old sets for which we have no retail data.  But the list is still dominated by cheap sets that have increased by large multiples. The 1626 Angel takes top spot with a crazy 20,477% growth over retail thanks to 1 recent sale of $250 and another 2 years ago of $280 all from a set that cost $1.30 when released back in 1989. 246 Santa and Sleigh make a return for the festive season.  This old school set from 1977 had over 30 sales in the month at a value far higher than the original $1.99 MSRP (though we probably should adjust for 35 years of inflation!) Perhaps the first “real” contender is 10190 Market Street, such an impressive result for a set in just 6 years.  Much better than another set from the same year that people often point to as the pinnacle of Lego investing…   Conclusions These top 20 tables lists all the absolute best investment decisions you could have made if you had perfect future knowledge.  The amount of under the radar sets and “sleeper” hits have been a big wake up call for me.  We sometimes become a little circular in discussing the popular sets for investing (Modulars, UCS, etc) and lose sight of the fact that many of the best investments to be had right now are probably some of the least discussed sets.  It does mean there are plenty more topics ripe for discussion on the forums and in blogs. It will be interesting when the December data is released to see if set have maintained some of their ‘form’.  Plus the Xmas effect which is probably already present in some of the November data should come into full swing.  This can be both a positive and a negative for set values as FcB demonstrated in a couple of blog posts. I’ve only given a cursory analysis of the lists themselves and would like to leave it to you on how best to interpret the results.  The numbers should speak for themselves and I’d like to hear your take on them in the comments below.
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      The end of the year usually brings the retirement (or at least the stock exhaustion beforehand) of 100s of Lego sets. If you are lucky, you stocked up on these exact sets throughout the year at really low prices and are not struggling to grab them at retail in the final minutes before they are gone for good and before the price skyrockets on them (assuming they were winners).
      With this, brings a brand new year, brand new Lego sets, and most importantly, brand new retirement targets: Sets that should be gone at the end of the year and need to be stocked up on. Here I want to offer up my picks for this next year as the ones I will be looking at. I do not want to act like all of mine are going to be right - so make sure you comment and offer up yours as well. This blog is going to cover the Star Wars sets I will be looking to make sure I have in my collection. Let's get it started!
      Lego 75005 Rancor Pit

      LEVEL: HIGH
      Explanation: This set is awesome. I did a blog when I built it a while back, http://blog.brickpicker.com/the-mighty-rancor-monster-profits-or-will-the-metal-gate-drop-on-your-investment/, and my thoughts on the set honestly have only grown. While I do think it is somewhat pushed by having Jabba's Palace, and is not particularly impressive as a set on its own, it still has the one factor that really matters - The Rancor. This mega-figure is incredible and being exclusive, it will be sought after for a long time.
      I have parted out a few of these sets (honestly the set is not a good part out set at all) and was able to get $28 for the Rancor by itself. I think it will continue to drive this set into investment and will most likely not be in another set - possibly ever. This figure should end up being a $50 figure or more after retirement, so I do not think there will be a problem with the rest of the set helping it to the $100 mark.
      Another big part is the possible perceived success of Jabba's Palace 9516. This set did really well during Christmas and from the time is went OOS has risen up to above retail. With this set fresh on people's minds when the Rancor Pit retires, there will be a lot of people who want it. I think these two are also a good target for selling together. Normally selling sets together means you will get less, but on Ebay using Buy It Now, you can sometimes make it easier for people to bite if you are selling two things they want together. I think these two sets obviously fit together about as well as any others.
      The only real knock on the pit is that the other figures just are not that great. The Gammorrean guard is not a bad figure, but doesn't have a weapon or anything which somewhat devalues him (he has one in 9516). Malakili has really been a do nothing figure, and luke with the bone I find pretty unimpressive.
      However, the Rancor will take care of all that. Do not get caught without this set (and multiples at that).
      Target Price: 35$-40$
      Sale Target: $100
      9515 The Malevolence

      LEVEL: MILD
      It is no secret that clone wars stuff does not really live up to original trilogy Star Wars stuff. Hopefully we wont be saying the same thing about the third trilogy as well. However, there have to be some winners some where in there and if you don't take chances, you wont ever hit it big on one of those surprise sleepers. To me, this is the best built set to do it on.
      First off, the set has a really good array of figures. The General Grievous figure is excellent - much better than the original and sells for around 20$ on Ebay. Padme is another solid figure who sells pretty well at around 10$ (all of the Padme's and Amidala figures sell well). You also get a clone wars anakin, two droids and Dooku. The ship itself is really large and is really solidly built. With the amount of Star Wars refreshes, I think a unique and impressive large vehicle like this may make a splash. Along with the figures, this makes it a solid choice.
      I am still somewhat bullish on Star Wars though so this is one I will be buying as cheap as possible and will not be afraid to pass. I feel like $120 may be a little much for this set, but for a long time it was not hard to find at 80$ and I feel it will go back that way. It was a popular set during Christmas which makes me feel good about its long term growth. It will not be a crazy gainer in my eyes, but has some definite potential with a minimal risk.
      Target Price: 70$
      Sale Target: $175
      10225 Ultimate Collector Series R2-D2

      Level: Low
      Do not let my target level of "low" fool you - this set is a winner and I want a lot of them.
      However, with the way things are at the moment, this one probably wont retire for a long time. However, you do not want to take a chance on not having some of a legendary set and in my eyes, this is one of those sets. The UCS sets have a history of doing well, and the Darth Maul bust was one of the best of them. R2-D2 is more iconic that Maul in my eyes. The set itself looks almost like its a robot as it is so solid and real looking. Its an instant classic as a display piece and it appeals to about every age group. R2-D2 is going to be in the new movies as well.
      Another big part: no discounts on exclusives. We have seen in the later part of this year that Lego was serious about this. I think we will see a lot of investors stop fulling with exclusives as much and focus on smaller sets they can find for 30-40% off. R2-D2 is worth it at retail though, do not be fooled. I will most likely target him during a double VIP, if it happens, or if there is another really good exclusive polybag from Lego like the VW.
      Eitherway, if you get caught without these and the set does go away, you are going to be really upset. So make sure you do not to hesitate picking these up .
      Target Price: Retail w/ double points or exclusive
      Sale Target: 500$
      10221 Super Star Destroyer

      LEVEL: MILD
      Name a 3500+ piece set that did not do well. If there is one, I do not really care because it was not a freaking Super Star Destroyer. This thing is going to absolutely murder in the secondary market. The set itself is incredibly large, has a ton of really large pieces, as absolutely draws everyone to it when it is in a room. You can not have a better set around besides 10179 than this set.
      A lot of us were hoping this set was done at the end of this year, and really it may still be on the way out. Either way, I think there is a decent chance it will be gone soon and want to make sure I have a good few of them. This is probably one of the few sets left out there that still has a shot at $1000 some day.
      Just "mild" though? Well, you have to remember to consider ROI (return on Investment) here. If you drop $400 on a set, it better do really well. We would all like to get these at $300, but with the ban on exclusive discounts, it just is not happening. So I wont go crazy. I could spend that $400 on a lot of small sets that may gain a lot faster than the $400. Also this set weighs about 1 billion pounds which makes it hard to ship. Still, you can not pass up the chance to get that kind of money out of one set.
      Watch out for combination deals this year. I think a lot more retailers will take up after TRU and start it. If you have a store somewhere, these are your best deals out there and can definitely help recover some of that massive capital.
      Target Price: $350 after selling part of bundle, retail otherwise
      Bonus Set: 7965 Millennium Falcon

      TARGET: HIGH
      The rumor is this will be out until 2015 with the new movies - and chances are that is right. So why am I targeting it?
      First and foremost, I think the set is a winner and I want to make sure I do not get shut out. However, this Christmas, these sets were super sought after and rose up to about $170. During the year, it was not particularly hard to get these sets at sub-100 prices. Since it was coming back, I sold a bunch of these off and made good money during Christmas. I expect next Christmas could be even better as some could see the set as possibly gone and the panic buying will commence.
      The set itself is huge and has a lot of play-set variety. While it is not incredibly different from prior falcons, the set  is iconic enough and a good mid level for the people who can not afford 10179. If it goes out of stock again next Christmas, I will be ready to bring on the flipping.
      Target Price: $90
      Sale Target: $175=$200
      Let's hear it guys. Any Star Wars sets I missed that could retire at the end of the year and are winners?
    • Veegs
      A disclaimer before we start: I have thoroughly enjoyed the previews for The Lego Movie. I giggled at times and was generally pretty excited at the prospect of seeing it in theaters. I've also been checking out the sets from the movie and reading/watching reviews of the builds. Overall, I think they are kinda eccentric and zany, like my uncle Jim after a lot of 'eggnog' at Christmas, dancing to Santa Baby with my wife's scarf. Fun, fun, fun! Sadly, fun alone does not profits make; does fun and popcorn sold translate into worthwhile Lego investments?
      Here are my cons:
      1) Lack of set cohesion
      I'm having trouble envisioning how many of these sets will seamlessly integrate into existing LEGO setups.  For most children, this probably isn't an issue, but for older builders with, say, a cityscape, I don't see a lot of easy integration.  I do understand that these sets are directly related to the movie itself, but I'm unsure how they'll work with any of the other popular themes.
      At this point you should point out that the current number one CAGR% theme, Dino, doesn't really merge well with others.  To that I'd have to say that dinosaurs have been popular with kids, since, well, dinosaurs existed *almost*.  These movie sets are a break from anything I've seen TLG make, and since they don't play well with other themes I think they need to stand on their own.  These sets look like Cuusoo sets gone wild - very fun, very original, but I don't think the sum of the parts is greater than the whole.  Without a past history of success for a whole line made in this fashion, I'm leery of tying up my investment capital.  Also, a good chunk of the sets have those micromanagers that look like glorified black boxes - not sure how much long-term appeal they have, or if people are going to want to army build with them...
      2) Movie release date/Will people remember TLM by the holidays 2014?
      I think the release date is terrible - why wouldn't a move that is essentially a vehicle to sell and promote toys (that sell best during the holidays) be released during the holidays?  I'm concerned that by the holidays of 2014 the sets being released now will have almost no prime retail space allocated to them, (perhaps a couple of the rumored summer sets, but likely not a lot of the sets currently on shelves) and it will be up to children to specifically ask for these older sets.  Conversely, had the movie been released in, say, early November, I could see the shelves being emptied during the holidays and a little more momentum for the theme.
      3) Lack of minifig desirability One of the biggest drivers of quite a few popular themes are the minifigs.  Look at the selling prices some superheroes or LOTR or SW minifigs are going for and you can see that the desirability of certain minifigs can make or break a sets investment potential.  My concern is that the collectible minifig line as well as the minifigs in the sets themselves are not going to be commanding high secondary prices, thereby limiting one significant factor in secondary market growth.  They aren't bad by any means, and some of them are downright awesome (I like the ice cream vendor guy) but I don't see them being as popular or collectible as licensed-theme characters.
      4) Kid-focused movies have a history of investment woes.  Check out a sampling of some past Disney made movies.  Yes, you could argue that Lone Ranger wasn't 'for kids' - if you believe critics its target demographic was essentially no one - but it was a supposed blockbuster in line with POTC and POP - maybe not directly for little kids, but I'd wager they were looking for a lot of younger folks buying tickets.
      Movie/Lego CollaborationBox Office Success (US/Worldwide)Overall CAGR%Theme highlights/outliersTheme lowlights/outliersPrince of Persia (2010)Approx 90 million USA & CAN, 244 million worldwide. Best video game adaptation ever in terms of box office (sorry Lara Croft) but these movie watchers aren't buying enough Lego!- 9.66%The Battle of Alamut - to have the biggest set (which tends to be the best profit % earner post-EOL) still be sitting 22.57% below retail is a real kick in the face to folks who say "buy any Lego set at 20% off or more" which might not be the best course of action.Um, all of them. While a couple are growing in value we aren't looking at sets that are significantly better than retail. Ugh!Toy Story 3 (2010)415 million US & CAN, 648 worldwide...my sweet lord, over a billion dollars. For a movie and franchise this popular, how did the Lego sets not set the world on Toy Story Fire?4.59%Transportation, fools! Like the boats below, and trains below that, even a low CAGR theme can get some growth from a form of transportation. Western Train Chase is holding this set in positive CAGR growth, along with the army men. Without them, this would be headed to negative-town.Nothing sticks out as being more worthless than others. The Construct-A-Zurg got some press from Ed awhile back, first for bad, then for having a nice bump in growth (but not well-above-retail growth). The sad truth is most of these are languishing at or near retail and are tar pits to sink your hard-earned capital into.Pirates of the Caribbean (2011)241 million North America, 804 million worldwide - another billion-plus movie-goers.18.80%There are two things driving this theme, both awesome boats. Without Queen Anne's Revenge and the Black Pearl this theme would not be sporting a handsome CAGR, but would be wearing a CAGR of shame, like an investing dunce cap.Okay, it actually isn't as bad as I was intimating in the column to the left - but it isn't all that promising. Long, long after EOL every set I checked showed at least some positive growth during the holiday season, but it isn't like this theme went EOL and money started falling in investors' laps. Even with time it seems unlikely the lesser (non-boat!) sets are going to net nice gains. A new movie on the horizon will help, but it might not be the best place to tie up capital.Cars 2 (2011)191 million in North American, 368 million worldwide, which puts this movie/franchise at over half a billion viewers. If only each one wanted a Construct-A-Zurg8.20%8486 Mack's Team Truck. I literally can't figure out why this set is rocking out with such a high ROI%. It is carrying this theme as a red big rig (yes...transportation, maybe big transportation sets are the key?) even though it certainly isn't the only big rig ever released by TLG. If anyone knows why this is a diamond in the rough, let me know.A few sets are showing some growth, but it is basically getting at/near or slightly above retail, which means not too much here to make your fortune on.The Lone Ranger (2013)89 million North America, 171 worldwide...Eeesh, worst Lego-Disney collaboration on this list. Still liking these sets?N/A - also would be unfair as many of these sets are/were on clearance recently.Constitution Train seems to be the investors choice with the stagecoach a close second. Time will tell.Anything but the train? Hard to say at this point. If the theme is indeed EOL it would be a very VERY short run which might positively impact growth. 
       Some interesting observations here - most prominently, that Disney makes pretty successful (nay, very successful) flicks with some astonishing box office numbers.  With numbers like these, it seems obvious that Lego sets tied to these franchises would have huge investment potential.  From what I can gather, however, is that no matter how many people go to see a movie, it doesn't always translate into investment potential.  Outside of a couple of real investment winners, these themes are not places any investor would like to tie up funds.  In looking at these numbers, is anyone else concerned that the Lone Ranger was BY FAR the worst box office-rated movie in the Disney lineup, which features generally poor performing sets?  I know there has been some love for a few of the sets in these forums, but despite all the love I'm still leery.  A super short run might help, but I'm still not convinced there is solid investment potential in LR or any other Disney-movie-based set that isn't a form of transportation.
      5) Set overload
      I get that TLG is ready to put a huge push to make this movie a success.  I think that perhaps free of paying huge, licensing fees for other lines, TLG was literally like a kid in a candy store, but the store was a factory with Lego-making molds.  Does a release of this many sets all at once dilute interest or drive children to try and collect them all?
      Pros:
      The 2 in 1 sets are very cool.  I think that for a lot of builders these are must-owns.  Even with the ice-cream-loving Heartlake gals being considered, I think it is unlikely we'll ever get another Lego Ice Cream Truck (with awesome minifigs).  I also think this will be the only plumbing truck we get, and every Lego cityscape needs jobs for their minifigs that don't involve fire or police work (or being chased by said police).
      Overall, I have quite a few concerns about this theme, and none of them likely concern TLG.  I'm comfortable predicting the movie will be quite successful and even with possibly smaller sales of Lego sets (compared to licensed or very popular themes) the fact that there are no licensing fees means TLG probably needs to sell a heck of a lot less than, say, LOTR sets, to make a profit.  I am interested in the larger rumored summer wave of sets that might (edit* will) see a very large classic space ship and Metalbeard's Sea Cow, which are larger and might appeal more to AFOLs, but for this first wave I'm not very optimistic that there are a lot of winners in this set.  Tread carefully!
      Also, feel free to tell me why I'm wrong about this line and how it is going to set the secondary market on fire!  Since we're still in the infancy of this theme, there is plenty of room for dissenting opinion and I'm certainly no Lego Nostradamus.  Still, not every theme can be an investment winner - for each set above the CAGR% average there is one below, and the trick is recognizing which side a theme is destined for.  I'm giving it the investment equivalent of Romans giving gladiators two thumbs down - investment death.
    • Veegs
      There are a lot of great reasons to get into polybags; sometimes they show up in your Lego orders for free or after buying enough product, sometimes you see a nice box of them in a store with a sale or clearance price tag and wonder if there is any value there.  Sometimes you see them being discussed on Brickpicker or another Lego forum and simply decide you *must* obtain a certain polybag because it is pretty darn cool or fits perfectly into your Lego MOC.  Whatever your reason, I'd like to outline a few strategies to use for buying, listing, packing and selling these little guys.  I've found that with a little research, some hard work and time, you can get a really solid ROI% (return on investment) for each little poly.  With these attributes plus volume, you can add a decent total profit to your Lego investing bottom line.
      Buying
       If you read my other polybag article, covering the 2013 polybags in a hauntingly beautiful photo retrospective, you'll probably conclude that the best bags of 2013 came from S&H offers or video game pre-orders (Elrond was hot a couple years ago for this very reason) so it can be tough to amass a large number.  That being said, the obvious thing to do is make your S&H purchases well-planned around good promotions.  At times I've made purchases without looking too carefully at upcoming promotions and end up blowing part of my Lego budget and getting a so-so promotional polybag when I could have waited and gotten, say, a VW Camper.  I've also found (at least in Canada) that TRU consistently has the most promotions with free polybags if you buy enough.  I know a lot of folks dislike TRU for their ridiculous mark-ups, but sometimes it pays to shop there.  (Best promo of 2013 was spend $30 on Superhero sets and get a free Robin poly, which, at the time, could be sold for $25+, making your LEGO almost free!).  You need to also keep up on the forums to see where polybags are being spotted at a variety of large retailers.  It seems even previously 'exclusive' polybags can show up months later somewhere else in a clearance aisle.  Hunting polybags this way is a lot of fun, and it keeps me occupied when my wife is shopping for other non-essential things like food & clothing (as opposed to Lego)
      So you watch your promotions, check out your local stores regularly and still aren't getting enough poly-action in your life - what to do?  I recommend bulk buying.  As mentioned above, in different markets and at different stores, it seems folks can always seem to find things on sale that you can't.  Some of these folks choose to see in lots of 5, 10, 20 or more, looking to make a quick flip without the pain of many, many trips to a mailbox, oodles of envelope licking and the like. (Personally, I derive great satisfaction from envelope licking, but to each their own) If you are willing to buy a lot of 20 and sell them slowly over the next few months one at a time, you can probably make some scratch, especially if you pick a poly that has a nice minifig or comes from a popular theme.
      Another great way to grab polys is from the United Kingdom.  The Daily Mail used to run regular promotions where our friends across the pond could essentially trade in newspapers for Lego!  After one of these promotions, there are usually quite a few quick flippers looking to sell bulk lots, and by buying bulk the shipping costs per unit remain quite low.  My best buys from Daily Mail promotions were Zombie Coffin Cars, Hawkeye with Hero Gear, Uruk-Hai's and such.  At one time my wife was giving me raised-eyebrow looks of derision when a couple hundred polybags were in my basement, but they've sold so well that she doesn't complain anymore (about Lego polybags - this does not include complaining about other Lego-related issues).  I'm not sure when the next promotion is, but I'll be keeping an eye on it!  I also keep an eye out for polys that are only available in certain countries/regions and try to find a bulk lot to bring to Canada where I can offer free & fast shipping on 'rare' polys.
      Listing
       I almost exclusively sell through ebay, although I'm happy to sell through other channels it seems that I get most of my sales through the 'bay.  I believe in Buy it Now listings for items like polybags.  First, the anecdotal evidence I seen in researching the other polybag article tells me that starting auctions low seems to generally result in lower (on average) prices. If you still want to run an auction but start with an opening bid close to your minimum, you're likely wasting your time - if you price really well, you'll know the high end of what people will pay for your polybag and you're unlikely to start a bidding frenzy.  You'll also have a tough time starting a bidding frenzy for all but the rarest of polybags because you'll have plenty of competition on the market, all of which makes auctions not really worth it in my experience.
      I like to list from more than one account.  My wife has an account of her own and sells her own stuff, but I often get her to list polys for me.  If I have a lot of a particular set I like to list it in two places, one with free shipping (in Canada) and the other with a lower price + shipping.  For some reason, some buyers seem to prefer one or the other, even though they ultimately both cost exactly the same.  I like to give choice, plus get more exposure for a set I have a lot of.  Remember, the key is volume with these little guys, otherwise you've spent a lot of time buying & listing a set to only sell a couple for a paltry total profit.
      Packaging and Shipping
      This is the easiest part of polybag investing; you've already spent time and energy buying polybags, storing them somewhere, listing them, getting paid and now you're ready to get them out the door.  Shipping is satisfying and delightfully easy, plus you can lick envelope glue if you really want to.
      Packaging
      I choose dollar store small bubble mailers as my go to.  They can fit one poly easily, and when one buyer buys several, you can still usually get at least four or five in there, which means only one stamp needed.  I'm sure wherever you are, you can find a cheap supply of these.  When I started to 'go big', I bought a large pack from Staples when they were on sale, but if nothing is on sale and I'm in need, the dollar store is my friend.  If you get them on sale, they can range from about twenty cents to thirty-five each.  I like the extra little protection you get from the bubbles, and thus far buyers have been quite happy.
      Shipping
      In Canada, these can be shipped as over-sized letter mail, which costs $1.34.  I factor in these costs when I offer free shipping.  The best part is, these don't need the post office!  I put a poly in a mailer, write down the addresses and simply put it in the community mailbox at the end of my street.  Since the post office can have long lines filled with people who seem intent on wasting as much of my life as possible in line behind them, shipping close to home is awesome.  Check out your postal situation or make friends with someone at your local post office and ask them the best (read: cheapest) way to get your polys safely around whatever country you are in. 
      I'm guessing you can find a cheap and easy option. I'm sure there are plenty of other folks with their own strategies for selling these little Lego sets, but I hope you can pick up a few tips here and put them to use.  Whatever you decide to do, find a system that works because if you want to make any serious money, you've got to make a lot of shipments.  A lot.
    • Veegs
      I'm not stranger to polybags - if you've read two of my other blog posts about my personal attempts to reach ebay powerseller status, you'll know that a significant part of my strategy was accruing more total sales via small sets, i.e., polybags.  I've spent a fair bit of time looking both online and in brick and mortar stores for some of these little guys.  Like Pokemon, sometimes I just want to catch them all, although TLG makes this difficult by releasing an almost literal ton of them per year.  Plenty of other sites highlight polys for a given year, but those sights are not as interested as I (we) am in not only what is available, but more importantly, what can I (we) sell them for.
      I'm sure - sure - that I'll miss some that were not widely released, or were only released to people with access to Google Glasses or to those who worship the Macks, but I aim to tackle the majority.  After a listing of the polybags released this year, I'd like to take a stab at guesstimating what makes certain bags profitable and certain bags saggy and worthless on the secondary market.  Before hunting them all down and doing some research, I had some ideas on what were the hot sellers, but even I had a couple of surprises along the way.  Since they are so widely available at different times throughout the year, it may behoove even an experienced LEGO jockey to give it a read.  Also, instead of flaming me in the comments section if I missed a polybag, let me know and I'll see about editing the post to include it.  Even my daughter's books teach that everybody poops...er, makes mistakes.
      *NOTE* Promotional items like ComicCon figures, Brickmaster sets, monthly LEGO builds and such have not been included.  While doing some research, if it didn't look like a somewhat widely available polybag I skipped it, which was necessary because I still have what feels like a gazillion polybags to research.  I also am sure I read on Brickset about a couple of polybags that were available that I can't find in the Brickpicker database, one being a toy soldier that was included in a magazine (Danish magazine?) but disregarded it because, c'mon, what does Denmark have to do with LEGO? (Yes, that's a joke) .
      You can change the table settings easily to see all at once, if you'd prefer.  The default is set to ten polys per page, I think.
       
      Set Name & Number Set Information Brickpicker Average as of the Nov. 2013 update Ebay.com sold listings highlights from Jan 2014 30220 Fire Speedboat 40 pieces
      1 minifig
      US: TRU $5.39 BP $6.99-$8.99 30221 Fire Car 37 pieces
      1 minifig
      US: Target $6.86 $5.99-$7.99 30222 Police Helicopter 33 pieces
      1 minifig
      LEGO S&H
      Walmart $6.59 $3.99-$7.99 30224 Ride-on Lawn Mower 42 pieces
      1 minifig
      UK: WHS
      US: TRU N/A $4.99-$8.99 30225 Coast Guard Seaplane 37 pieces
      1 minifig
      UK: WHS
      US: TRU $7.40 $4.25-$8.99 30183 Little Car 45 pieces
      UK: Daily Mail N/A $1.97-$7.99 30184 Little Helicopter 56 pieces
      UK: WHS N/A $4.37-$14.99 30185 Little Eagle 48 pieces
      LEGO S&H $15.20 $1.94-$5.00 30186 Christmas Tree 51 pieces
      US: TRU N/A $5.99-$7.29 40073 Panda N/A? N/A? N/A? 40078 Hot Dog Stand 39 pieces
      2 minifigs
      LEGO S&H free with purchase $11.11 $7.27-$19.99 40079 Mini VW T1 Camper Van 76 pieces
      LEGO S&H with purchase or $6.99 $20.94 $14.99-$23.99 30106 Ice Cream Stand 34 pieces
      1 minifig
      US: Target
      UK: Girl Talk $5.91 $2.99-$8.88 30107 Birthday Party 39 pieces
      1 minifig
      US: TRU $7.21 $6.00-$11.42 30108 Summer Picnic 33 pieces
      1 minifig
      US: Target
      UK: Daily Mail $4.16 $2.25-$9.99 30250 Ewar's Acro Fighter
      33 pieces
      1 minifig
      LEGO S&H, TRU, Target $7.26 $2.00-$7.99 30251 Winzar's Pack Patrol
      38 pieces
      1 minifig
      US: Target
      UK Daily Mail $5.02 $4.99-$7.99 30252 Crug's Swamp Jet
      23 Pieces
      1 minifig
      US: TRU $6.53 $3.34-$8.99 30253 Leonidas' Jungle Dragster
      30 pieces
      1 minifig
      US: TRU $6.55 $3.10-$9.99 30254 Razcals' Double-Crosser
      36 pieces
      1 minifig
      US: Walmart $6.74 $4.55-$9.99 30255 Crawley
      11 pieces
      1 minifig
      SE/NO/DK only $13.13 $6.88-$9.95 30260 Lone Ranger's Pump Car
      24 pieces
      1 minifig
      US: Walmart
      UK: Daily Mail $9.21 $2.50-$7.99 30261 Tonto's Campfire
      20 pieces
      1 minifig
      Promotional
      US: TRU $8.89 $4.99-$8.00 30216 Lake Town Guard
      31 pieces
      1 minifig
      US: TRU N/A $6.99-$11.50 30240 Z-95 Headhunter
      54 pieces
      US: Walmart
      UK: Daily Mail $5.97 $2.25-$5.99 30241 Mandalorian Fighter
      49 pieces
      US: TRU $5.36 $2.04-$6.50 30242 Republic Frigate
      45 pieces
      LEGO S&H w/ $50 purchase $6.98 $4.85-$7.49 30243 Umbaran MHC
      48 pieces
      US: Target, Walmart $6.19 $2.26-$7.00 5001621 Han Solo Hoth
      5 pieces
      1 minifig
      May the 4th promo $13.40 $7.00-$15.00 5001709 Clone Trooper
      Lieutenant
      5 pieces
      1 minifig
      LEGO S&H with purchase $14.08 $8.71-$9.99 30166 Robin and Redbird Cycle
      40 pieces
      1 minifig
      CAN: TRU
      US: TRU $17.55 $9.99-$12.99 30167 Iron Man vs. Fighting Drone

      24 pieces
      1 minifig
      US: TRU $8.72 $6.01-$7.49 30168 Iron Patriot
      17 pieces
      1 minifig
      With video game preorder N/A $21.00-$29.99 50016231 Jor-El
      5 pieces
      1 minifig
      LEGO S&H with purchase $13.53 $9.04-$16.07 30270 Kraang's Turtle Target Practice
      36 pieces
      1 minifig
      US: TRU N/A $2.82-$5.72 40051 Valentine's Day Heart Box
      54 Pieces
      LEGO S&H $10.78 $6.99-$13.58 40052 Springtime Scene
      88 pieces
      2 minifigs
      LEGO S&H $8.52 $6.45-$9.99 40053 Easter Bunny w/Basket
      96 pieces
      LEGO S&H $9.37 $5.16-$9.99 40054 Summer Scene
      40 pieces
      1 minifig
      LEGO S&H $10.82 $7.79-$10.00 40055 Halloween Pumpkin
      52 pieces
      LEGO S&H $10.11 $6.99-$15.99 40056 Thanksgiving Feast
      46 pieces
      2 minifigs
      LEGO S&H $11.83 $10.99-$13.99 40057 Fall Scene
      72 pieces
      3 minifigs
      LEGO S&H $11.94 $11.00-$14.95 40058 Decorating the Tree
      110 pieces
      2 minifigs
      LEGO S&H $11.62 $7.49-$8.99 40059 Santa's Sleigh
      77 pieces
      2 minifigs
      LEGO S&H $12.55 $12.50-$14.99 Wow. 
      That took substantially longer than I though it would, but I think I've gained some fairly useful insight into the world of polybags.
      First, people be crazy!  I consistently - consistently - see polybag auction sales that are anywhere from 25-75% less than Buy It Now auction prices.  Granted, while looking at hundreds and hundreds of recent sold listings I didn't read each description but even spending five minutes researching as I have you'll see this immediately.  This is useful for two reasons; 1) If you are selling, please use BIN (as long as your BIN is not a totally ridiculous price) and, 2) If you are looking for a particular polybag, wait for auctions and bid low on a few auctions.  It seems that some folks are getting a poly for $2.25 while others are paying $9.99 for a BIN auction literally on the same day!  With a little patience and persistence I'd wager you can get your desired poly cheaper than a lot of the BIN prices and Brickpicker AVG prices you see.
      Next, timing is almost everything.  A couple examples on the negative side: The Robin and Cycle polybag was originally only in Canada during a TRU promotion.  These featured a popular theme, had a cool minifig, and were selling for more than double their current rate.  Sadly, like many non-exclusive LEGO S&H polybags, they ended up on shelves in TRUs in the USA and in days the price tumbled to where it is now.  I remember when folks on Brickpicker forums were asking us Canucks to send them one for $25 or $30!  The Clone Lieutenant SW poly is another fine example - at first his availability was very limited and he was selling for a fortune (Brickpicker says people were paying over $100 for him at one point) but soon he became widely available and dropped to a more reasonable level.  Lesson: if a polybag is exclusive to one promotion/country it is likely it may become available further down the line more widely and your potential profits start to disappear.  If you do get your hands on something good, keep a close eye on the forums and LEGO-related websites.  If rumors come of your big money set showing up elsewhere, better unload quickly.
      On the positive side of timing, for S&H exclusives, it seems the time to buy them is immediately.  Items like the Hot Dog Cart, VW Camper and others experienced a glut on the secondary market during and right after their promotional use.  I'm quite certain you could have grabbed a few VW's for half of their current price if you were crafty and patient. (remember to look for auctions, not BIN, for the most part, unless someone has posted a crazy BIN in a drunken stupor)
      Lastly, exclusives seems to do the best.  By that, I mean exclusive sets that are from S&H, either for sale or from promotions.  Granted, they do best on total sale prices, but the benefit of widely available sets is that large retailers can and do mark down polys like crazy.  Folks on the forums are seemingly always running across some of these sets at TRU or Walmart and scooping them up for under a buck-fifty.  At that price, it is tough to say no!  Only looking at sale prices doesn't take into account the buy-in price.
      One more tip from looking at thousands of pages of ebay data - when you do have a lot of polys, grouped packages seem to do well.  Say, all three 2013 Friends polys with a solid BIN price, or the seasonal LEGO S&H polys (Spring Scene, Summer & Fall) with a nice BIN.  To get a lot of polys, buy larger lots of polybags (10 or 20 bag lots) for a lower price per package right after a promotion when the market is flooded, and always poke your nose around clearance aisles.  Most of the great poly deals I've heard of come from Brickpickers who just happened to be wandering around a store and saw a box of nicely priced bags.
      I had a blast checking out these sets, and you really should scan the data and make your own conclusions, but I'd say the top five polys of the year, for investing (I'm not including Iron Patriot here because I don't know how anyone could accrue a sufficient amount of these for investing purposes unless they bought 20 copies of the video game), as in, I wish I had ten or more of each of these:
      #5Hot Dog Cart (A great little S&H exclusive set (with purchase), but I'm not sure how much more value can come from this poly)
      #4 Robin Redbird Cycle/Clone Lieutenant (great early returns, if market saturation abates these could climb in 2014)
      #3 Jor-El (Exclusive to S&H with purchase, might see more growth with another Superman movie)
      #2 Han Solo Hoth (Exclusive to May the 4th and some LEGO store openings, this little guy suffered from market overload earlier in the year, but 2014 might see modest gains, especially around May 4th 2014)
      #1 VW Camper (Exclusive to S&H with purchase, this pairs very nicely with its big brother - like the mini Sopwith Camel poly from the previous year - and it seems that market saturation is evaporating and prices are increasing.  For those that held or bought low, this little bag might pan out nicely in 2014)
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      The success of the modular line in the Lego Investing culture is obvious. Market Street, The Green Grocer, and Cafe Corner all have seen and continued to see insanely successful growth rates, with the newer Modulars only boosting their appeal to people. Take a look at the CAGRs of the different sets below:
      Set NameRetail PriceCurrent Price (new)CAGRMarket Street 10190$89.99$1472.6759.34%Cafe Corner 10182$139.99$1426.2747.24%Green Grocer 10185$149.99$760.7438.37%So naturally, the Fire Brigade, as what we assume will be the next modular to retire, is an important investment set because all the other modulars have seen incredible gains. However, there is much more riding on the Fire Brigade for Lego investors than just the price of the set and how many each of us as stashed away.
       
      To most of the experienced Lego investors here (I would not be one - I have only started about a year ago), Lego investing really "got out of the bag" about 1-2 years ago. This site and many others have continued to talk Lego fanatics, and people looking to make good money, into Lego investing. Not to say that Lego itself hasn't gained an extreme amount of notoriety during this time period as well and pulled in millions of new builders, but with the amount of investing "heavy hitters" growing, the talk about the "bubble" and the comparison to other toy market crashes like Beanie Babies and Baseball Cards can not be ignored.
      So what does all this have to do with the Fire Brigade? Well, the Fire Brigade has been out for just over 4 years now and counting (it looks like it could be done, but has not officially hit "retired product" on the website) making it one of the longest set retail runs to date - and one of the most high profile too. Because of the success of the first three modulars, the Fire Brigade has been a popular choice among new and old investors on top of the people grabbing it because of its modular appeal. Ed, one the site's co-owners, has mentioned that this is the most owned set in the BrickPicker Brickfolio on several occasions. It is extremely safe to say that this set is much more stockpiled than any of the first three modulars.
      On top of this, the long production run has been a fear of Lego investors in general. It makes sense - the longer a set is out, the more of them are bought, and the more competition in the secondary market later on. This doesn't mean long production sets won't be winners, just that it could take a much longer time to reap the same rewards from them had they lasted the normal 2 years. Along with this long run, the speculation is that this could become the norm for Lego sets and especially large popular exclusives.
      The Fire Brigade is, in my opinion, will be the highest profile set to retire with an abnormal production run in the middle of the "Lego Investing Boom". Because of this, this set may very well be a huge barometer for any of the "buy and hold" investors going forward. If the set still triples or quadruples in value within the first three years, we will know that the long production run did not have as huge an effect. If the set plateaus extremely early as 1000s of investors try to offload their stock they have been holding for 3-4 years, it tells us a lot about what to stay away from moving forward (a shift to licensed sets as better investments no doubt).
      No matter what you think will or wont happen with the Fire Brigade, the set itself will tell us a ton about investments moving forward. In this set of blogs, I will be looking at different aspects of the set to set a barometer for what it "should" do based on past sets. I will also be comparing it to other high profile Lego Sets that have retired with a much longer than normal production run to see if we can draw any comparisons. I will also be looking as some best and worst case scenarios as well as what to do during those and my investment analysis from it.
      It is definitely not normal to spend so much time and focus so much on one Lego set as an investor. In fact that is usually a no-no as we encourage diversity and sager investing. However, with time showing that the Fire Brigade's production run and investment hoarding may be the norm going forward as Lego fights investors, this set may have an impact on 100s of others down the line. The Tower Bridge, the Volkswagon Bus, the Haunted House, and the rash of new modulars coming out like the Town Hall, the Pet Shop, the Grand Emporium, etc. are all going to be judged by what this set does.
      If this set still soars up the proverbial latter and washes away all the doubters, we will know we are living in the crux of the golden age. However, if this investment burns furiously to the ground, we better all be ready to adapt before we go down with it.
    • Fcbarcelona101
      Original Idea by rcdb1984
      "Turboflipping is an original term coined by rcdb1984"
      Whether you are new to the LEGO investing game or a seasoned pro, there is one thing that will always remain constant: a desire for fast and "easy" profits. As you probably know, however, most of the time to earn significant amounts of money you will need to hold your investments for a relatively long period of time depending on your target return, but there are some instances where you can take advantage of market shortages and make a generate some quick capital.
      You may be wondering, understandably as it is a completely new term, what is Turboflipping. Odds are a lot of you had already done it in the past, as it only involves purchasing newly released sets and listing them for sale at a markup as soon as humanly possible in order to secure a profit. For example, let's take the newly released Maersk Triple E 10241:
      The newest iteration of the Maersk container ship has a MSRP of $ 149.99. Having said that, being a newly released exclusive the only place you could really order the set from is LEGO S@H or by visiting your local LEGO B&M store, where available. Furthermore, if you were paying attention on the day the set was officially released to the public, S@H sold out in a matter of a couple hours with a expected ship date of almost a month later, giving those who were quick to order a somewhat comfortable window to sell theirs at a higher price. Want some hard data that backs up this claim? Let's take a look at the 5 latest Sold listings on eBay at the moment:    
      As you can see, there is a clear opportunity to make some money on the set from people who for X reason can not wait to get their hands on what is, in my opinion, one of the better looking sets released by TLG in the past couple of years. Now that we got the basics out of the way, let's figure out how to make this process work for you. From my point of view, there are a number of ways to set up a tactic and make money on new releases:
       

      1- Setting up pre-orders: You have probably seen a number of listings for to be released sets around a month in advance to their official release. Obviously, the sellers expect to sell desirable sets without having them in hand and either ordering them at midnight the day of release or waking up really early to be at a B&M location to pick them up. Let's examine the pros and cons:
       
      Pros
      - Might maximize your profits by setting higher prices, as not many sellers are comfortable with this system.

      - Gives you a chance to gauge demand and set up two or more "waves" of sales. Get your first buyer's orders first and then take advantage of the post-release window of opportunity. Cons
      - Not being able to secure enough sets to meet all of your orders can result in significant damage to your seller account as a result of negative feedback. Keep in mind that the only reason buyers bought from you is to get the set ASAP.

      - There is a good probability that some of your buyers don't read the listing terms and assume you will be shipping their set in a couple days. As above, this opens you to negative feedback.

      - You will need to forfeit the Top Rated discount (if applicable) as a result of the inability to upload tracking in 1 business day and offering returns on items you don't currently have.     Summary This is by far the most risky and probably worst method to put in practice. While some of the benefits look good on paper, the odds that you will run into some of the issues described on the "Cons" sections are substantially high (based purely on observation).

      We all know a number of eBay buyers seem to avoid reading anything before making a purchase, and this type of listing relies completely on them doing precisely that to be satisfied. 2- Ordering online at midnight on release day: This method entails waiting until the set is officially released and as soon as it is available purchase as many copies as the limit allows. As said before, some very desirable sets go out of stock in a very short time and usually take a long time to be re-stocked, giving you the opportunity to capitalize on the shortage. Also, and only if you are comfortable, you can set up the listing on eBay a couple days before the set is released and just drop ship it once it goes up for sale.
       
      Pros
      - Avoids most of the problems related to pre-order type listings

      - May allow you to qualify for Top Rated discount

      - May save you some money by drop shipping instead of self-fulfilling

      -Collect VIP points

      - It is a better way to ensure you can meet your customer purchases on time Cons
      - Risk of missing out on the profits as window of opportunity closes

      - Loss of potential free promotional items

      - More planning and perfect execution needed to have multiple orders shipped to different buyers

      - Less interest in your listings, as the costumers themselves will be able to do exactly what you did on the release date     Summary A close second from the bottom up, this method saves you from what I consider to be the major problems of pre-order listings while increasing the time needed to execute it efficiently. Basically, you are lowering your risk significantly, but at the same time your reward just as much. 3- "Opening" a B&M location: It's 8:00 am and you are eagerly waking up to drive for half an hour to get to your local store and pick up as many newly released sets as you possibly can (bringing all of your kid's friends to help you as a cover). You grab several sets, pay and just as you leave the store you open up the eBay Mobile app and list all of your purchases for sale at a substantial mark-up. Turboflipping at its best.
       
      Pros
      - You know 100% how many sets you have available for selling

      - Gives you the possibility to keep promotional items/VIP points that you can sell or keep for yourself

      - Again, you are able to qualify for Top Rated discounts

      - Opens the possibility of purchasing sets over the online limits

      - May allow you to qualify for Top Rated discount

      - May save you some money by drop shipping instead of self-fulfilling

      - It is a better way to ensure you can meet your customer purchases on time Cons
      - Increased competition from other sellers

      - Less quantity of sets offered to B&M compared to S&H

      - Only available to those with B&M stores at relatively close distance     Summary This is, by far, the best method to safely turboflip LEGO sets. No need to worry about meeting pre-set shipping deadlines, in-hand inventory and the possibility of acquiring promotional items are the main benefits that make this your best choice if you want to take advantage of the newly released sets' potential.

      Furthermore, if you are sure you will be at the store well in advance, you can even set up the listing a day or two before to jump ahead some of the people that will be flipping the sets. There you have the 3 generic tactics you can use in order to flip newly released sets. Which one you use is completely up to you! Graphical representation of prices for to-be-released and newly released sets based on BP Data:
           
           
                   

      Having read the article up to this point, you may think doing this all the time with every set makes sense; thinking this way is a sure way to be disappointed. Take a look at some sold listings for the Sidney Opera House during its first couple of weeks:

      While at first sight it may look that the sellers were able to make some money, assuming they purchased this set at MSRP and ignoring taxes leads us to the conclusion that very little profit, if any, was earned from this venture. When you are talking about a $300+ set, earning less than $30 (and even this is low by my standards) can only be cataloged as sub-par.
      This example only points out something that everyone interested in LEGO selling should have clear by now: there is no such thing as 100% easy money. Even flipping this way involves some research both about the sets to be sold as well as the most efficient method to complete the sales. While trying to flip larger and iconic sets may seem as a great idea, sometimes you can maximize your profits by flipping several of the smaller, easy to ship sets like the DeLorean or Minecraft.
      Notable turboflips of 2013
       
      Set Mr. Gold 41999 Crawler DeLorean Interesting to note is the case of 10227 B-Wing, as it gave sellers a 2nd opportunity at flipping it immediately after the May the 4th discounts. What does the future hold? No one can really tell what the next successful new release will be, but if I had to guess I would put my money on the rumored UCS Sandcrawler and Slave 1. Both of those ships are SW fan favorites and would be appearing on the UCS lineup for the very first time. I really don't see how you would not be able to sell these for a substantial mark-up during the first couple of weeks of their release, as they will for sure sell out very fast. The re-hash of the Mos Eisley Cantina may also be a nice choice.
      I really hope you find this article useful or at least interesting to read, and I would like to thank rcdb1984 once again for suggesting this article and his help developing it.
      Thanks for reading!  
    • Noodlenut
      So Far TLG has produced three Minecraft Micro World sets:  21102 LEGO Micro World - The First Night, 21105 LEGO Micro World - The Village, and 21106 LEGO Micro World - The Nether.  The original Minecraft set was designed by Mojang on CUUSOO and began to make its way into houses in 2012.  The set was such an incredible hit that the LEGO company actually ran out of the set, and had to get another shipment in.  That only lasted about fifteen minutes and TLG had to get another shipment of the set.  This time supplies lasted, but the set still remained popular and stayed in the "25 most popular sets" list on S@H.  Fast forward to the 2013 San Diego Comic Con where TLG announced that there will be two more Minecraft Micro Worlds,  The Village and The Nether.  They are also still popular, and even though they all are very simple sets with many small 1x1 and 1x2 plates, tiles, and bricks, they all remain best sellers.  TLG has just recently announced that they will be creating minifig scale Minecraft sets.  In this article, I will be stating my own personal opinion (backed by facts and history) about the Minecraft theme and will also be determining which Micro World set will give us more bang for our buck.

      The first set that we will be looking at is the 21102 LEGO Micro World - The First Night.  It was released in February of 2012.  This is the set that started the entire Minecraft theme.  The key factor to the popularity of this set is the game that it is based on:  Minecraft.  If Minecraft never existed and if it was an original theme that TLG created, than sales would not be anywhere close to where they are today.  The Micromobs are neat, but they are not all that detailed.  This is a set for Minecraft fans, and considering that over 13,400,000 people have downloaded the PC/Mac version,  there is a definite market for this set.  Out of the three Micro World sets, this the most iconic.  If the Steve and Creeper Micromobs do not appear in future Micro World sets, then that might give this set the small push that it needs to get to the top of the LEGO Micro World sets.  Another thing to consider while analyzing this set is that it is the very first LEGO Minecraft set to be created.  That alone should make this set a winner among Minecraft and LEGO fans alike.  People who want to take their LEGO Minecraft models to the next level will want to buy more than one set and build models like this:


      The next set we will be analyzing is the 21105 LEGO Micro World - The Village.  This set was released on September first, 2013 along with the 21106 LEGO Micro World - The Nether.  The Village was the most popular of the Minecraft sets this past Christmas, even out-preforming The First Night.  However, that was only because it was the most recent Minecraft set before Christmas, 2013.  More people asked for this set for Christmas because they already had The First Night.  After a year or two, things will even out, and we will see which set is the winner of the two.  This set has a different variety of tiles and pieces which will help people who want to build their own Minecraft creations.  The Micromobs in this set are also neat, and the pig is very recognizable.  This is another great investment.
       

      The last of the three Minecraft sets is the 21106 LEGO Micro World - The Nether.  Out of the three LEGO Micro Worlds, this one was the least popular this past Christmas.  Considering that this set was released on the same day as The Village, (which was the most popular set this Christmas,) this set might become the loser out of the three Micro Worlds.  However, this is not a bad investment.  This past Christmas I saw people on eBay selling all three of the Minecraft Micro Worlds for $180 dollars.  If they had bought these at retail, then they would have made $75 dollars.  People will want to complete their Minecraft collection with this set.  If they buy their favorite sets first, (most likely 21102 and 21105,) than they will be buying this set last.  If people don't have this set in their collection by the time it retires, then there will be a higher demand for this set after retirement.
      So now after a careful evaluation of all three of these sets, we have to determine which one will be the winner.  The Village has a good chance of being the best investment, considering that it was the most popular Minecraft set this last Christmas.  The Nether did not do as well, though.  It was released on the same date as The Village, which probably means that people do not like The Nether as much.
      The Village has proved to be a popular set worth investing in, but I think that the true winner will end up being The First Night.  The First Night has something that The Village does not, and that is 10,000 supporters on CUUSOO that made the whole Minecraft theme possible.  CUUSOO is not a Minecraft fan community; it is a LEGO fan community.  The First Night is recognizable to nearly everyone - even people who have never played Minecraft.  The bright colors and the box design of this set should make people want to buy and build it.  Overall, The First Night is a great set for LEGO and Minecraft fans and collectors alike.
      There are only two reasons not to invest in the Minecraft Micro World sets:
      #1.  They shows no signs of retiring.
      #2.  If TLG waits too long to retire them, then they might flood the market.
      I believe that these reasons could affect the value, but it will not be the make or break for these sets.  If you have plenty of storage space and do not mind waiting, than reason #1 is not very significant.  Reason #2 may sound like a good reason, but I think we can all take a lesson from the 10197 Fire Brigade while considering this problem.  I can remember many people saying that it would take the Fire Brigade more than a year to reach $200 dollars after it retired because it had been available for so long.  Guess what?  The Fire Brigade is worth more than $220 dollars and it is currently listed as "sold out" on S@H.  I can not remember one set becoming so popular that if flooded the market.  After researching the Minecraft sets, I would say that they are all good investments, great for flipping and long term investing ( if you are willing to wait a while.)
      So what does the future of LEGO Minecraft hold?  TLG is working on minifig scale Minecraft sets right now, and they look amazing from what I have seen.  I expect LEGO to release some more Micro World sets, and if they keep it up, then these first three will become valuable classics.  If you head on over to the LEGO Minecraft website you can see some of the minifig scale sets they are working on.  LEGO even revealed some wallpapers which show some Micromobs that might be included in future sets.


      Overall, I am very excited about the future of LEGO Minecraft, and believe that it could become a very solid theme.
      I hope you have found this article useful.
      Thanks for reading.
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      "Ed"itor's Note:  Over the past three plus years, I have encountered many types of people on our site and other LEGO sites.  One common thread that connects many LEGO fans is that many are highly educated.  There are many programmers, stock brokers, doctors, accountants, chemists, engineers and business owners that inhabit the various LEGO forums.  DoNotInsertInMouth is one such person...or character.  To make a long story short, I almost banned him for his name and wacko avatar he originally used, but he changed his avatar, so I relented.  Love him or hate him, you know who he is.  So without further adieu...well, you know the rest...Ed Mack
      I think it would be an understatement to say that I post a lot on this site. Obviously I have written a very large number of blogs between the contests and have a ton more on the way (I am competitive). I also post a considerable amount on the site's forums and participate as much as I can. This is something everyone here probably knows - so what's the point of this blog.
      Well a short while ago I really realized that when you post a lot and write a lot on a popular website, you are listened to. You automatically become somewhat of a role model, and people take your advice whether it is smart to or not. In reality, I wrote a lot for fun and didn't really think about what I wrote (not that it wasn't thought out, just didn't always think of the ramifications of my posts) and some of that has come back to bite me when I have seemingly contradicted myself in forum posts or come off in a different way than I meant to in a blog post.
      So the point of this was to give you a view into who I am, my credentials in the fields, and what I do so that you can make an informed decision on whether you should or shouldn't take my advice, if I am experienced enough to be credible in your mind, and to help some people understand why I post the way I do and my general writing style. None of this is meant to "toot my own horn" or try to go back on things I have said (I have said before there are many people on this site with much more experience and who are much better at this than me); I just want to offer up a little bit of perspective because I can not expect to write and post as much as I do and not be considered a "credible member" whether I want to be or not (I do want to be). And I have never really ever given an introduction on this site anyway.
      So, a short bit about me and my writing style: I used to be a very descriptive and imaginative writer. The problem was, a lot of my writing was jumbled run-on sentences and full of worthless sentences and ideas (no comment on it still being). I had a teacher in High school that wanted to "unlock my potential" which were her words as I just assumed I would always be a less-than-stellar writer. She managed to mold my writing style to be as simple as possible - nothing extra at all. It became very deliberate and to the point and it really helped me as a writer in high school and college. On the writing level, I have never been passed "proficient" on the writing scale, but I can hit proficient every time without a problem which was really what I wanted.
      Fast forward to college; I have a Bachelors degree in Electrical and Computer Engineering and a Masters Degree in Electrical Engineering, both from the University of Louisville. Naturally, I wrote a lot of technical papers which even more made me a very blunt and simple writer (simple meaning I did not add imagery or "extras"). Funny enough, I got a job outside of my field when I graduated, one in Networking. I work for a very large Networking company in the Enterprise Division that serves medium to large businesses with networking equipment. I work in the support department as a support engineer doing things such as supporting customer problems, bug identifying and reporting, and generally playing a giant political role in wiping customer's butts because we want them to continue to purchase our equipment.
      That last thought really finishes molding my writing style. On a daily basis, I deal with people who know much less about Networking and our equipment than I do (any one who has EVER worked a support role knows how this feels) yet makes 5X more money than I do. A certain part of my day is spent catering to these egos, but another part of a support role in this situation is being deliberate, blunt, and having a general control of a conversation whether by text or by voice. If you have ever read a blog I have submitted, you will understand where that comes from. I write like I am telling everyone what to do because in general that is what I do every day. I am generally blunt and un-apologizing. I definitely write in a very "preachy" way.
      So I want to put out there that this is definitely not my intent and I try to write around these tendency's as much as possible. But I definitely do not want people to think I am preaching or telling people what to do - most of the time I am merely offering what I think and am absolutely fine of people disagreeing with me. I LOVE debate. I change my opinions about things constantly. Does this mean I am a "flip-flopper"? Maybe - but I like to think I just mold and change my opinions until they settle into the place I want them. If someone makes a compelling argument, I will switch. As much as I sound sometimes, with my writing style, that I want to be right, that is really only the small "ego" portion of me. I want to be right, but I want what I am doing to be right not just want what I say to turn out to be correct.
      Past my writing style, I want to offer up a little bit more about me and a little about my background in Lego so people can make their own decisions as to my credibility. I am absolutely being honest with you all in this - I am not a fan of "boosting" myself up.
      Who am I outside of Lego?
      First off, my real name is Evan. I have a few nicknames: DNIIM here, "the Birdman" when I play basketball (anyone who is familiar with Chris Anderson will understand), and "sticks" when I used to play drums in a band. I am 26, married, and live in Huntsville, Alabama.
      I am a workaholic first and foremost - I think most people here can attest to that. I really feel that I was born with one real talent: I work harder than any normal person can. I am into a ton of stuff and I do it all mediocre to ok. A lot of people look at me and say "Man that guy is multi-talented" (more on this in a minute), but in reality I just bust my butt on a daily basis (and yes I do not sleep much).
      Some of my interests:
      Sports: Playing them (poorly) as well as watching. I love Soccer, Basketball, tennis, and Football especially. Music: I can sing (poorly) and play the Saxophone (I have a CD if you are interested), Drums, piano, and Guitar (all in the mediocre range) Video Games: Mostly into Sports video games and what I would call "Party games". Also I freaking love Pokemon. Code Writing and developing: Totally an outside of work hobby. Electronics: Only place I actually use my degrees - I like to fix and take apart/build electronics. How did I get into Lego?
      About a year ago I saw a few Lego Star Wars sets. I had never been into Lego before: I liked it but my Dad was very anti-toy when I grew up. My wife and I went on a Honeymoon to Disney World and I went to the Lego store and became hooked. After some messing around I stumbled upon this site and my addiction was born.
      Lego Investing Credentials
      I started investing about 8 months or so ago. I found about 12 sets in a small damaged-retail store and that with this site kicked it off. A couple of my best picks have been the Dino series and the B-wing (hopefully it continues).
      I now invest fairly heavily. I also own an Ebay store in which I part out sets, sell sets I have invested in, flip used and new sets, and sell anything else that I can make money on. My Ebay store averages about 250 items now and I get, in a non-Christmas month, about 600 visitors a day. I have had this store for 4 months, although I do not expect it to grow much more than this. I sold 600 items during December at an average of 35$ (a couple of big items skewed that as the median is around $14).
      I am NOT what I would consider an "Experienced investor". However, I work hard and research constantly. I study past sets before I make decisions, I remember what people say about certain sets and I spend most of my day on Ebay monitoring prices. Speaking of Ebay, I consider myself an Ebay expert in terms of navigation and purchasing/searching (not necessarily in terms of rules yet).
      Outside Lego Credentials
      I am only 26, so I don't have a giant Investing portfolio. I have, however, managed a business with two locations for about a year, including making purchasing, inventory, and personnel decisions. I have experience in retail as well. I am actually, at heart, a salesman - the place I managed set monthly records for sales 10 out of the 13 months I was there as well as me setting personal sales records (no clue who worked there before so they could have just been incompetent) - but I lack the final killer instinct to sell things for a living as I let my morals sometimes get in the way (doesn't mean they are right or wrong).
      Anyway, I will get back to writing Lego blogs, but I wanted to give people a bit of insight into my life before I did. I do not encourage anyone to just listen to me because I write - if you do this in general, you set yourself up for failure. I do not blindly take anyone's advice. I encourage you to take what I have said here and read my blogs and make your own informed decisions based on it. You alone will be responsible for your successes and failures in the Lego investing world (just like you ultimately are in life) so make sure you aren't letting others make decisions for you. That includes not just "taking my word for it" because I am not afraid to put myself out there.
      I do know, however, that I owe any credibility I have at all to this site and the people that read my work - so a big thanks to all that contribute. I encourage everyone else to not be afraid to put themselves out there either. As you write and contribute, you will only learn more and boost your own success.  


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