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    • Veegs
      Many of us grew up on LEGO City sets.  With each passing year, LEGO seems to produce a new Fire or Police Station, yet many of these sets still appreciate very well in the LEGO secondary market.  Let's take a look at some City sets that might do well in 2014...
      First, and in all fairness, I have to tell you I'm Canadian - BUT - that when I head to the US I drive north.  Yes, I live in Windsor, Ontario,  Stephen Colbert's least favorite city on the map.  Being Canadian means that a few sets on this list might not be as readily available in your neck of the woods but as of early January 2014 most are still in stock at TRU.CA, although if you think US TRU prices are bloated, I warn you to check their Canadian counterpart whilst sitting down lest you crap your pants while standing (which everyone knows is better than doing so whilst sitting) - yes that is MSRP for TRU here.  Some of the sets on this list are also available at other retailers in Canada, so I would surmise that some stores somewhere close to you might have some of these.
      Why City?  I know I write about Friends a lot, and I came out of my dark ages largely because I was blown away by Star Wars UCS sets, but as a child City scenes were always my favorite.  Trains, houses, buildings, etc.  Especially trains, and trains need destinations.  With all the sub themes that have been done since I was a child, today's young builders (or me, a middle-aged builder) have so many more awesome options than when I was a lad.  Another reason for City?  A healthy CAGR of over 20%, which is actually really impressive considering that TLG releases so many City sets.  Obviously with that many sets there are likely some real winner and some duds.  I touched on the Coast Guard theme a little in a different post, so I'm not going to re-write about them here, but suffice to say I still like the three biggest sets in that sub theme to appreciate nicely.  If you see any of these three with a nice discount, I'd grab them.
      With retailers seemingly slowly restocking it is hard to say what you'll have access to in your neighborhood, but whatever City sets get stocked are a good bet to see sales and possibly clearance before the summer wave of City: Arctic sets (I think the sled dogs are awesome) and that is when I'm targeting these sets (as well as any other promo/sale/deal I can find).  Perhaps I can convince you to do likewise?
      Lego 4204 The Mine

      Target Level: Very High
      As the largest set in this sub theme, the gold mine is, to me, a very solid investment pick.  Lego has only done this sub theme once, and anything unique has a lot going for it, as well as the fact that this set features a ton of playability as well as displayability. (yes, that is a word now).  Construction-type sets have done pretty well - check out the numbers on the 2009 Construction sub theme, and I think this Mining theme correlates loosely with this theme.  Essentially, the two largest sets are approaching plus 100% from retail (7633 Construction Site and 7632 Crawler Crane).  The Mine did very, very well during its first Christmas, as third party Amazon sellers were selling this for $177.  This Christmas was solid but unspectacular, as the sets are largely gone from brick and mortar locations and can be found mostly online.  Demand won't be as high as some other sets, but you likely don't have as much competition from other investors as City sets tend to not get much talk on the forums.  Even now, Amazon.co.uk has them 31% off (although I picked up six before Christmas during the 40% off sale, which basically made them 50% off Canadian retail) so I think there will definitely be opportunities to pick these up at a sizable discount.
      Target Price: 30% off US retail
      Target Sale Price: This 2012 set is likely going to be phased out for the upcoming Arctic sub theme, giving it a roughly two year run, and I'd think by 2016 my target sale price would be $180-$200.  It seems unlikely for this to get a reboot anytime soon, so I think you probably have 3-4 years from now without worrying of remakes.
      Lego 3368 Space Center

      Target Level: High
      This set, unlike those in the Mining sub theme, is already on the way out, so much so that the door is literally hitting this set on the butt as it escapes.  This is still available at TRU.CA and probably can be found at mom & pop type places or lesser known retailers than the big three or four.  Amazon.co.uk had these on for thirty pounds just before Christmas and sold out quickly, so if you do see these on sale hesitation might result in missing out entirely.  While space has a long history in Lego lore, this is the only City/Space sub theme, and since it sold out at S&H prices have already started to rise.
      Target Price: You can get this now for $89.99 + tax at TRU.ca, but they haven't sold out of them at this price so I'm inclined to wait for at least 20% off and/or a good promotion that gets you a free polybag.  Getting this at US retail ($69) or lower is pretty solid.
      Target Sale Price: You won't have to wait long on this one.  If you can score a good deal you could probably try to list it as a BIN in the 2014 holiday season.  Space is always popular with kids and there shouldn't be too much competition from too many rival sellers (I don't think I've read one forum thread about this sub theme or set).  For the first holiday season post-EOL I don't think $130-140 is outlandish, and I'd feel comfortable saying another $20-25 for the next Christmas.  The only danger is that space is popular and I'd expect more space sets of some kind sooner rather than later.
      Lego 4440 Forest Police Station

      Target Level: High-Medium
      I normally don't see a huge amount of growth in Police-based sets because they are so numerous, but I can tell you anecdotally that I easily sold my Robbers Hideouts and Police Dog Vans on kijiji in November and December, so retired police sets do seem to do better than you (even I) would think.  Seeing this, (the colored Canadian money) I'm now pretty hot on this set.  It has a lot going for it - a police station that likely won't get a redo anytime soon, a cool bear and a very interesting design (at least to me).  Sold out at S&H, time is running out to get this set.
      Target Price: I'm comfortable at this point with anything in the $50s, although once a set sells out on S&H it can be tough to find good deals as panic buying sets in.  As time goes by, you might even be tempted in the low $60s.
      Target Sale Price: $150.  I think $100 by this Christmas is realistic, (which is actually Canadian retail!) but it will probably be at least another year (plus) beyond that to hit around double retail.
      Lego 4207 City Garage

      Target Level: High
      Considering this was on sale at S&H recently and didn't sell out immediately, I was wondering if it was simply a case of investors not having enough post-Christmas funds or perhaps lack of knowledge.  The last City Garage set from 2009 sells for $200, even with this garage set providing competition at retail!  It is also a TRU exclusive, and now that S&H has sold out, it is likely the only place you're going to get your hands on them.  To me, that makes this set a no-brainer.
      Target Price: Now that S&H is sold out, US TRU lists these at $139.  I think that is crazy!  I think a BOGO 50%, possibly with a coupon or promo is the best way to add these to your portfolio now.  TRU seems to often have their exclusives for some time after S&H, but if a good sale does come along, it might be your last chance to get these below retail.
      Target Sale Price: The old garage sells for around $200, and this garage should do just as well, although inflation and a higher retail price might make this a $220 set or so a couple years after retirement.  Since it could move to 'retired product' at any time, I'd be on the lookout for a good TRU sale as soon as possible.
      Lego 60020 Cargo Truck

      Target Level: Medium-Low
      I've snagged a couple of these from amazon.co.uk recently at 30% off UK retail, but I think there is plenty of time to add more to my portfolio.  I'm actually inclined to think they'll eventually be 40% off for a short while and that is a price I would no be able to say no to!  Especially because it isn't that large of a set but is $50+tax (13% for me!) in Canada at retail.
      Target Price: $25 or less (I'd go as high as $30 for Canadians)
      Target Sale Price: $80 or better.  Like the other Cargo sets, this will likely be available for quite some time, so load up when you see them on clearance but I'd wait for something better than just 20% off.
      Lego 60021 Cargo Heliplane

      Target Level: Medium-Low
      I stocked up on these when amazon.co.uk had them for twenty pounds.  They shipped two to a box and not one was assessed customs fees, so I was pretty pleased with myself to get them at this price, even though I know I'll have to wait a long time for this set to retire.  I'd only bite on more if they were cheap enough.
      Target Price: I like these at anything under $35 for Canada, probably under $30 for the US
      Target Sale Price: I see this as a $100 set more than a year after retirement.
      Lego 60022 Cargo Terminal

      Target Level: High
      I'm targeting this a little more than the other 2013 sets because I think this has the best chance of being a set that sells out during the 2014 holiday season and can be sold and then purchased again in early 2015.  Planes are always popular - even promotional planes and small City plane sets seem to do well.  The last City Airport (3182) sells for double retail, and I'm confident betting that this set has the same potential once retired.  That being said, it has a long haul until retirement, so I'm looking for very good sales/deals/promotions before I bite.
      Target Price: 30% off or more, so $70 in the US.  In Canada, I'd go as high as about $80 or so.
      Target Sale Price: I think this is easily a $180-$200 set after retirement.  I think it might be possible to sell this for $130 or so in the fall of 2014 if it sells out at S&H and other major retailers, which it might.
      Lego 60026 Town Square

      Target Level: Medium-Low
      This set is pretty nifty and large City sets typically do very well after retiring.  The reason for the low target level is that this set likely has anywhere from 12-18 months on shelves, both physical and metaphorical online shelves.  I add it to the list because it is definitely a set I would grab with a very good promotion, even though I generally wouldn't want to tie up too much capital in a set that probably can't be sold for a really nice profit for two and a half to three years at the earliest.
      Target Price: Under $100.  This will be easier for US residents but I'm committed to getting it at this price one way or another.  Luckily I live ten minutes from the border so if I can't get a really good sale in Canada, I'll have to go north to the US.
      Target Sale Price: $200+.  This is a huge set and I think more than $200 seems reasonable after it retires.  As it is relatively new, that is likely 18 months or more away, so no rush to get this unless the deal is amazing.
      The great thing about City sets is that there are a lot of them, the theme is very popular and it seems because it is so widespread that different retailers have solid deals on these sets at different times.  I think City sets are also (I'm speculating, here) the most opened and played with sets, or at least among the leaders, which means not a lot of NIB sets sitting in basements across the world.  It pays to target the cream of the crop, if you will, but I'd advise picking an entry price point you can live with and stick to it.  Plenty of others that aren't on this list would get my attention with a big enough discount, but these are sets I think will really help diversify your portfolio and make some steady and solid gains.
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      LEGO Technic sets are an overlooked commodity in the LEGO investing world.  Many Technic sets appreciate very, very well after retirement, yet many investors will ignore these sets.  I just built my first Technic set a couple of weeks ago and I have to say, I am hooked. Loving Star Wars, I have always been a big fan of vehicles, but Technic sets take it to the next level. All the parts move, lots of sets can run with motors in them, and most are extremely challenging to build. I can not wait to build more Technic sets and add to my collection.
      The great thing about Technic in the investing world is that it is a fairly untapped market. First off, most investors don't pay a ton of attention to Technic. It does not have as many fans as other licensed themes and is only sold at the Lego store and Toys R Us in the US, meaning few discounts. Amazon UK has been the lone saving grace for us. However, there are certain Technic sets that perform extremely well. Take a look:
      Not bad huh? What this means is that if you pay attention, you can find some serious winners in a theme with a lot less competition! Here are the sets I will be seriously looking into next year.
      Note: I am assuming with this that all the 2012 sets will be done shortly besides the 9398 crawler (you will see it below). I think a good majority of them are winners and have multiples of each, but for those reasons I will not be targeting them).
      I would also suggest anyone who hasn't to read part 1 and part 2 of Quac's Technic EC blogs. I have them bookmarked and use the charts to judge sets constantly. Quac's knows his Technic.
      42000 Grand Prix Racer

      Target Level: High
      There is really nothing you can say about this set that is not said when you see it in person. It is AMAZING. Its about 2 feet long and looks so smooth and solid on the outside. I really think from 5 feet away it looks like a model car. It has tons of pieces and is a very fair price-point of $130. Even more awesome, you can inser thte motor functions into this baby and really let her rip (well as much as they will without mods).  The set also allows the hood to pop up exposing the sections where the engine would be.
      As far as an investment, this one has the >100$ MSRP. Quac's mentioned in his article as well that the sets above $100 do quite a bit better in the Technic world. Technic loves like huge sets with lots of cool parts and intricacies. In my eyes, this set fits that mold perfectly. Quac's warned that cars have not had a seriously high ROI, but I think this will be one exception. Racing is huge in the US and in parts of Europe, and though this is not a NASCAR vehicle, I think it will be something that appeals to that crowd quite a bit. Watch out on Amazon UK - if this one hits 70$ again, DO NOT flip it. This set will appreciate nicely in the long run and honestly there is no reason you shouldn't pop one open to build it. If you have to settle for Toys R Us, I still think you can find a way to grab some around $100, which is still a winning price in my eyes.
      Target Price: $90
      Target Sale Price: $250
      42004 Backhoe Loader

      Target Level: medium
      This was my first Technic set I ever built, and I think its awesome. There have been quite a few backhoe loaders in the Technic port folio, but not too many at this smaller price point. Despite how cheap it is at just $25 retail, this set is awesome. Every part of it moves, it has a bucket at both ends and is really solid. The wheels on this set are really sturdy as well and it rolls really smoothly. I think the set is a killer representation of a bigger vehicle.
      I keep this set on my desk at work and get a lot of comments on it. It is something that I could see being a perfect gift for Technic fans, and just fans of construction vehicles. In the past, construction equipment has done extremely well and I think this set will be right along by it. Amazon UK is probably not the best place to find this set since it is cheaper and shipping and the price conversion might make it too expensive, but I think this is a safe bet at even $25. This past Christmas, it rose past $35 even though it was in stock at Toysrus.com and Lego Shop @ Home.
      Target Price: $20
      Target Sale Price: $50
      42006 Excavator

      Target level: High
      This set is an obvious winner to me. The last two Excavators, back in 2010, both have grown nicely since retirement and I don't see why this one shouldn't follow that trend.
      I think this set is perfect for a mid range set in between these last two, but even more awesome because of the end piece. The other two have a normal excavating bucket, but this set has a 4 Pronged grabber. FOr the Technic fans that are getting tired of the same old Construction equipment, they now have something different to add to their collection. The extending arm is really solid for a smaller set and the tracks just make it even better. It also is one of the cheaper sets to take the power functions set, making it perfect for people who don't want to buy a $300 Motorized Excavator. I think this set has a good chance to maybe outperform the last two because of where it is at price-wise and value-wise, so I will not be caught without a stash of these.
      Target Price: 60$
      Target Sale Price: $200
      42007 Moto Cross Bike

      Target Level: High
      This set is just awesome. Technic fans love Motorcycles, as referenced below, and this one is the cream of the crop for me. When you look at this set, it doesn't even look like Lego pieces - its so well put together and smooth. Whats even more cool is that it matches up with the 9392 Quad which will be good for the people who like collecting the smaller sets. Though this is a smaller set, and those traditionally haven't done as well, I think this one will be the exception. This is another intracate smaller set that works perfect as a gift or a desk display piece as  well as being a toy.
      On top of all this, Motocross itself has a lot of fans who love models and toys depicting the sport. I used to really love model cars and hot wheels and Motocross stuff was always extremely popular. Any Motocross fan would love to have this set. I think the only downside of this set is the MSRP. This one is a little more expensive at $40, meaning for it to double and triple, you are getting up in the territory where people might expect a bigger set. For that reason, to be safe, I would try to get this one at a little bigger discount than the others on this list. At the same time, it is right in play if Amazon UK has a nice sale.
      I am hedging my bet that this one is going to be a huge gainer for such a small set though and could be the best of all the ones listed here. Definitely don't get caught with a few of these... or more!
      Target Price: $30
      Target Sale Price: $100
      42009 Mobile Crane MK II

      Target Level: As High as my wallet will let me
      Do you want to see a set that is a homerun pretty much hands down? Look no further. This set is going to absolutely soar. It is insanely detailed, absolutely massive, has power functions and is one of the most challenging sets Lego has ever put out. One of my friends at work picked up this set and it is just incredibly impressive. Every detail of the crane is perfectly done. It had 5 booklets with him and took him about 27 hours to put together. It is about 3 feet long! Just has something for everyone.
      Lets take a look at the comparison between this crane and the last one that came out in 2010 and retired in 2012:
      Name Mobile Crane 8053 Mobile Crane MK II 42009 Pieces 1289 2606 Retail $99.99 $219.99 CAGR 25.43 ??? Highest Price 278.50 ??? Um... Yeah, we have a winner. The first crane had almost tripled in price in less than two years being retired when this one came out. Obviously this one has hurt the price of the first one because it is so much better. Why would you pay $300 for that one when you could pay $220 for this one? Either way, it shows us what this set will undoubtedly do (if you think that "undoubtedly" is a strong word, I refer you to Quac's part 2 of his Technic article for some number crunching on the set). This set may be the best one ever and may even outdo the 41999 Crawler in the end.
      The fact that this set is huge is a big plus as well. As I mentioned before, the larger the set, the better it has done historically in the Technic line. This is one of the biggest there has ever been. There is no reason it shouldn't be one of the biggest gainers of all time either. Even if they make another one, I doubt it will be bigger than this one. And history says you will get plenty of ROI out of it before that happens.
      Target Price: Any discount
      Sale Price: $550
      So there you are. Any omissions you see? Any problems with the sets I have mentioned?  
    • Grolim
      Every time you are confronted with a Lego set for sale your brain makes a decision on whether or not it would be a good purchase.   Sometimes people put a lot of thought into this decision, other times not and it’s an impulse buy.  Usually the main question that you ask yourself internally (if buying for investment) is can I make a profit on this set?  This is often quickly followed by shall I buy it now or wait for a better deal at a later time?  It’s this later decision that I’d like to examine more.
      One of the main things discussed here on the Brickpicker forums is “deals”.  Discounts on sets at all the major and minor retail outlets are poured over in detail.  And rightly so, the effect of a discount on the initial purchase price of a set can have a significant impact for the investment return down the road.  Probably secondary to that topic is EOL (End of Line) or expected EOL dates.  When is the set going to retire from retail availability?  This is often when the secondary market price begins its largest period of appreciation.  What I struggle with at times and I’m sure many others are the same is combining the two.  Is the discount right now large enough to justify holding the set for X amount of time before it goes EOL, or is my investment capital better put to use elsewhere?  Sometimes it’s discussed or thought about but it’s not very often examined in any scientific or quantifiable way.
      What I’d like to do in this article is come up with a formula that will guide decision making on whether it’s best to buy now or use your money for something else and perhaps buy later.  There are a myriad of factors or variables that potentially come into play when making this decision, but there are 4 main ones that I’m going to focus on.  These 4 variables should form the crux of any buying decision and if you can quantify them you’ll go a long way to simplifying part of the equation.  The other variables can come into play afterwards, of which I’ll list some later and of course there are a few cautions along the way which I hope to point out as well.  Bear in mind I’m only really attempting to try and map out the logic process that already does or should happen in your head when faced with a decision to buy and put some numbers into those process components.
      Also, this decision making process is really only needed for investments purchased with a view to holding medium to long term, at least until after the set has gone EOL.  It is not for flipping or parting out which usually require different purchasing strategies.
      Let’s look at the 4 variables in detail and examine the things that will or may factor in to determining your individual values for them before uniting them into a combined formula.
      Price
      This is the easiest one to answer and the number should be known exactly.  It’s the price of the set in question, after any discounts that may be on offer.  Things to consider:
      Considering Lego VIP points earned (usually 5%) as a discount off the current set any promotional giveaways at their estimated value as another discount is also good accounting practice (but not essential) Don’t forget to add on any sales tax if applicable Add on the cost of shipping to you if buying online and it’s not shipped for free If the purchase has quantity discounts/offers such as BOGO (Buy One Get One) 50% off etc then take the sum of the purchase and divide by the quantity of sets to get an average for each one Your Average Annual Rate of Return %
      This one is a lot trickier and comes with many factors to consider which I’ll list below.  For simplicity think of it as – What annual percentage return do you think you could get from using that money you are about to spend by putting it into a different set or even a different investment class (many people invest in things other than Lego).  It is essentially your opportunity cost.  Many experienced investors will know what their average annual ROI (Return on Investment) is across their entire portfolio if it is well tracked and documented (e.g. you made 40% profit last year – great use that).  Others may not and after checking in on the forums with peoples thoughts on what an average might be it appears that opinions vary widely.  Nevertheless you should spend some time to think on your own situation to come up with this percentage, there are many factors to mull over which include:
      Selling and Listing fees – you have to cash out sometime and taking expected fees off any paper based profits will give you a more realistic cash out figure Selling platform and market – related to the fees above, but also where you choose to sell can affect the price you get.  Ebay, Bricklink, Craigslist, The local village market etc.  Plus do you sell local, national, or international?  It all adds in to determining your profitability. Postage & packaging - Some people factor them in to their selling price, others charge them on top to buyers.  Either way it impacts your profits Damages & losses – Lost or damaged shipments to buyers (when buying yourself you are often covered by the retailer).  Do your kids/dog rip into boxes etc.  All adds in as an expense Gas & mileage – Do you drive out of your way to hunt for deals?  Do you need to drive to the post office to ship sales?  Add that cost in if you can or think it’s material Time – now this one is individual preference.  Some serious investors like to cost in their time spent researching, deal hunting, buying, listing, selling, and shipping, at an hourly rate.  Others don’t as they are doing it as a hobby and don’t see it as ‘a job’. There is a good article detailing these and other expenses here.
      Now you should have some idea of a reasonable annual rate of return that you could get by investing in other sets.  Maybe you think you can make 20% on the stock market, go ahead and use that.  It’s your choice dependent on your circumstances.
      Expected EOL date
      Now here’s the real tough one!  It is very rare that the future EOL date of the set you are looking at is 100% known.  It is almost always necessary to make your best educated estimate here.  There is plenty of talk, rumours, speculation, and occasional hard fact, about EOL dates on the forums.  There is good reason for that as when a set disappears from retail availability it usually starts to experience price growth on the secondary market, and that’s what we are here for!
      So obviously you are not going to know the exact date, but there are some factors that you could consider to come up with your best guess:
      The time the set has been out - things like Ewok Village or Tower of Orthanc have just been released and you can reasonably expect them to be around for a good while longer.  The average of 2 years retail is a decent yardstick for most average sets, but larger SW and modulars have pushed well past that.  That leads into; The theme a set is from - Some themes have a reliable track record of EOL turnover.  City sets for example.  Is the set from a "one off" theme like Monster Fighters etc?  How long have others within the theme stuck around for?  Does the theme refresh itself with new release waves replacing older ones at regular intervals? Retail stock levels - is the set getting hard to find on store shelves.  Talked to the manager about ordering more and they can't get any?  This adds to the picture. Rumors and aggregate opinions of store employees - Yes Lego or other store employee information is usually meaningless and baseless when taken at an individual level.  However, did the information come from a store drone or from a manager - even then it's still not bankable.  But start to hear the exact same story from 5 or 10 different sources and you can put greater strength in the information being accurate.  That leads into; Information from the forums - people spend a lot of time talking EOL dates here.  Again, isolated information needs to be examined as to its source (is the member reputable and well known for having a proven track record of insight etc?).  People discuss the above factors and more and often come up with a loose consensus of when a set may EOL.  Take that information and apply your own logic to it and come up with your own gut feelings - then share it back on the forums like others do to help refine it. OK, now you should have some estimate of an EOL date.  What you need to do is take the time difference between today (the day you are looking at buying) and that EOL date, in years.  E.g. if today is 1 Jan and I think the set will go EOL around the end of June, so that is 0.5 years.  This EOL timeframe is important as it give us the window in which it should still be possible to pick up the set from a retailer. 
      If you want to be a bit more accurate than just taking an approximate value in years the formula for calculating it is:  EOL date minus todays date to give a value in days then divide that by 365 to give a value in years.
      Expected Price before EOL
      The 4th thing we need relates a little to the EOL date above.  We need to have a gauge on what a future retail price opportunity may be on or just prior to the set going EOL.  This lets us factor in possibly holding off on the purchase now in order to pick it up later.  Worst case scenario you can use the full retail price (MSRP).  If you have access to a Lego retail store or have a Lego Shop at Home (Lego’s online store) retail price for your region that is the same as the one at the retailer you are deciding on, then you can take an automatic 5% discount if you belong to their VIP programme.
      There are also plenty of sets that have frequent discounts.  Or you may be in a locality where stores often have Lego clearance sales when sets get close to or go EOL.  In that case insert a discount price that you are confident of being able to secure near the EOL date.  
      Combining the Variables into a Formula
      Ok so you should have values for the variables we need.  Here is a summary
      Price (P) in $ - the final price of the set you are considering Average Annual Rate of Return (AARR) as a % - your opportunity cost return that you could get by investing elsewhere Expected EOL Timeframe (EOLT) in years – the amount of time in years between todays date and the date you estimate the set will go EOL Expected Price before EOL (EOLP) – the price you expect to be able to still get the set for just before EOL Now we need to introduce a little math.  Using the abbreviations above, insert your values into this formula to find the amount of money you will be better off by or worse off by if you purchase the set:
      Value = EOLP - ((P x AARR x EOLT) + P)
      If you’re ‘not a math person’ and that seems a bit scary here is a step by step run through of how to calculate it:
      Take the price of the set and multiply by you Average Annual Rate of Return (e.g. if 30% then 0.3) Take that result and multiply by your expected amount of years until EOL date (this result is your opportunity cost) Take that and add the set price to it (this is the amount of money you could have at the EOL date if you don’t by the set and invest it elsewhere) Take the estimated price of the set at EOL (after any discounts e.g. 5% or even MSRP) and minus the result from step 3 The result you are left with will be either a positive or negative dollar value.  If it is positive then this is the value you would be better off by if you purchase the set – so you should probably buy it.  If it is negative it represents the amount you will be worse off by if you purchase the set as you could make more money by investing elsewhere and then buying the set later – so you should probably hold off.
      The result is obviously only as accurate as the info you use to feed into it.  As we talked about above the variables themselves can have a lot of estimation involved in them.  For this reason I would like to suggest building in a tolerance margin for the outcome.  I feel a tolerance margin of plus or minus 5% is reasonable to consider as a start point.   If you feel your variables are quite accurate you can narrow the tolerance margin and if on the other hand you think you’ve made some pretty wild guesses or it’s just too hard to know you can increase them.
      Take the Value you have calculated and divide it by EOLP.  Then multiply by 100 to give a percentage result.  If the result falls between -5% and +5% then it is in the tolerance band and the decision is too close to call.  If it is over +5% then you should buy it, if below -5% then consider investing elsewhere.
      If you are an Excel user I have created a simple spreadsheet that you can plug the variables into that does all the calculations for you.  If you would like a copy please ask in the comments below or send me a forum PM, here is a screenshot:

      (note for the majority of you that will be from the US, the date format is d/m/y – as it should be )
      You can input all your variables, changes the tolerance bands and there is a price calculator to the side for quickly figuring out prices after discounts.  Feel free to play with it, change it, and adapt it to your needs if you have the will and technical capability.  
       
      Caveats and Other Variables to Consider When Buying
      As mentioned previously there are a number of factors that come into play when making a buying decision.  The tool I have developed really only simplifies a few of the major ones.  Once you come up with a result from it, you should then consider these other factors as well that will likely influence your decision.  Here is a list of a few of these other variables:
      Capital restrictions – do you have the available funds to make the purchase?  As funds get tighter you’ll need to likewise tighten your buying decisions to make only the very best purchases, or come up with more capital possibly decreasing your AARR if you borrow Storage restrictions – can you fit more sets in your house?  Can you use storage from friends/family.  Or are you large scale enough to pay for a storage facility, again impacting your AARR Your risk appetite – Are you a conservative or risk taking investor? Diversification – do you put more or less weight on buying this set because you want it in your portfolio to increase your diversification? Investor Scale – Small to medium investors can probably get away with only buying their sets close to EOL.  But large scale investors need to spread their purchases over longer periods both for logistical reasons as well as trying to avoid possible buying limit restrictions. Time restrictions – The ‘cost’ of time was discussed above, but there is also the fact that time is a limited resource.  As you grow your investment portfolio there is only so much time you can spare to hunt deals and have available to sell your inventory to cash out.  Otherwise you’re going to have to hire someone or have a sympathetic partner! Stock shortages or limited time deals – is the deal so good or supply so low that the set may disappear if you don’t act fast? Those factors combined with the multitude of things that also go into the 4 variables we have attempted to use all mean that buying decisions can never be an exact science.  Hopefully though we have gone someway into simplifying part of the decision or at the very least mapped out the process for that decision making.  Even if you don’t use the formula I hope you have taken something from it to enhance your own process. 
      As for when to sell, that’s a whole other discussion and probably has more variables involved than buying decisions!  Everyone has different strategies that work for their individual circumstances and there are a few good articles and forum discussions on the topic as well.
      In conclusion, I’d like to invite constructive criticism and discussion on the topic in the comments below.  Feel free to pick holes, tear apart, mull over, or send effusive gifts.  This is by no means a finished product and by sharing our knowledge and thoughts we can all improve our investment capabilities.
    • Grolim
      This the seventh entry in a series of blogs that analyses some of the data we have available here on Brickpicker to provide some simple averages to use as benchmarks.  I have done the Star Wars, Ninjago, LOTR/Hobbit, City, Super heroes, and Technic themes and this time it’s the turn of Friends!
      My aim is to provide some basic stats for the theme mainly around averages for a few simple measures relating to set sizes and value for money metrics.  I’m going to leave out investment return measures such as CAGR and the various ROI time periods we have available as I think they should be a different discussion and the fact that current retail sets often muddy the results when looking at theme wide averages.
      This information should prove useful in writing other blog articles or set reviews.  It also should serve as a benchmark to be able to compare a set against the averages for its theme, which may or may not be useful but the option is there.  Over time as I hope to complete more of these blog posts we might also be able to compare themes against each other.
      Basic Information
      For the Friends theme I gathered data on 78 sets from Brickpicker set pages.   I’m only going to look at US based information in regards to retail price etc.  I’ve even included info on the new 2014 sets that have been announced so far.
      For the Friends theme I’m going to split the analysis into Promotional/Animal collectible polybags vs the rest subthemes. There are 21 Promo/Polbags and 57 Other sets.  This helps separate the info out so that you can compare polybags with their like, and other sets aren’t muddied by the low averages the small polybag sets will have.  Totals will give us the overall results for the whole theme.
      I can also tell you that of the 78 sets 4 of them had no listed retail price (promotional giveaways).  So we need to exclude those from some of the later measures that require a retail price to be present.  
      Pieces
      The average piece count per set is 156 pieces.  When split by Promo/Poly and Other sets there is the expected difference present with 35 and 201 average piece counts respectively.
       
      Retail Price
      The 74 sets with a retail price have an overall average of $18.35 for retail price.  This is split to $4.54 for Promo/Poly sets compared to $18.35 for Other Friends sets.

        Price Per Piece (PPP)
      Whether you like using PPP as a measure of value for money or not I have included it here as it has become quite a common metric for people to use.  Personally I don’t put much stock in it and find it quite a blunt tool. 
      The overall average for the 74 sets is $0.14 per piece.  That seems a little high compared to the conventional benchmark of $0.10 per piece, especially given there is no license fees for the theme.  New moulds and colours and new minifigure types probably push the budget up a bit for this Lego line.  Or TLG is just making a good margin!  For Promo/Poly sets it is $0.17 and for Other sets the result is $0.13.
       
      Price Per Gram (PPG)
      PPG is in my opinion a better indicator of retail value for money.  It takes into account the amount of raw ABS plastic material you get in the box and should be a closer approximation to the cost of production of the set.
      There were 7 sets that I could not find a weight for, as they are 2014 releases so info is hard to et.  That means we have 67 sets to play with for this section.  The 67 sets the overall average PPG is $0.10.  For Promo/Poly sets it is $0.162 and for Other sets the result is $0.079.
       
      Minifigure Count
      Of the 78 sets 56 of them have at least one minifigure.  The average across all 78 sets is 1.03 minifigures per set.  Promo/Poly sets average 0.29 for and the Other sets the average is 1.30 minifigures per set.  Those are fairly low averages.  Many of the Poly/Promo sets don’t have a minifigure and instead have a small animal included.  Also many of the larger sets come with only 1 minifigure, only 19 of the sets contain 2 or more, with only 3 containing 3 and the largest – 3185 Riding Camp with 4.

      Another interesting piece of information is that of you pay an average of $17.90 per minifigure at retail price.  Again, quite high – those special Friends minifigures must have a fairly high production cost.
      Thanks for reading and I hope you find a use for some of these numbers either in your own writing or your own investment decision making.
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      In the first part of the series I started about Chima and my belief that this line will be a winner, I talked about the fact that there were a few sets with short lifespans that were worth taking a look at before they were gone forever. Lets go back over a few of my main points of why the first Chima sets to retire may be the best ones to have:
      Chima seems to be popular among Children Chima has a TV Show driving its popularity This a Lego theme - they will not let it fail Short production runs on the sets currently retiring If Chima explodes as Ninjago has, these sets could be the "Holy Grail" Ignored by the majority of investors You may not agree with all of these points, but I feel the reward that could come out of investing in these sets is well worth the risk. So this blog is going to cover 3 sets that are retiring, why I think they are winners, and a bit of proof to go with it.
      70011 Eagle's Castle

      Lego.com description:
      Battle for the golden CHI at the Eagle’s Castle!
      Soar to the Eagle’s Castle, deep inside the eagle territory of Chima, and compete in an epic battle for the Golden CHI! Attach Lennox and Worriz onto their Speedorz, pull the rip cord, fly up the ramp and aim for the CHI! Hit the CHI, open the wings of the Eagle’s Castle and reveal the golden CHI to win! Attach the power-upz and take the battle to the next level! Set includes 3 minifigures with assorted weapons, 2 Speedorz, 2 rip cords, 4 weapons, 2 power-upz, 12 CHI and 10 game cards. Put your timing and accuracy to the test with this lightning-fast game for 2 players!
      Includes 3 minifigures with assorted weapons: Ewald the Eagle Leader, Worriz and Lennox Features Eagle’s Castle with eagle’s wing function, ramps and golden CHI Also includes lion and wolf Speedorz, 2 rip cords, 2 power-upz, 12 CHI and 10 game cards Weapons include 2 CHI weapons and 2 standard weapons Battle for the golden CHI! Attach the power-upz and take the battle to the next level! Pull the rip cord and unleash the Speedor! Compete with your friends in an action-packed game of skill! Collect the entire LEGO® Chima Speedorz series to create combo games! Investment Outlook: I don't know for sure, but I assume Ed coined the phrase "Spinners are Winners!"? Either way, its spot on. So Speedorz should follow the same path, correct? Well, unfortunately I am not so sure. Most of the Speedorz have a couple of problems. First, they overall just don't look as good as the Spinners from Ninjago do. I think what set Ninjago off was several bigger sets that included Spinner battle arenas and were extremely detailed. As for Chima, Lego may have a mistake (Gasp!) by making the sets a bit too simple and flooding the market with too many different types of them, diluting the pool of possible winners. Most of these have been severely discounted by retailers and still sat by the 100s in stores because of these facts. During December, they sold maybe slightly better from what I could tell, but most of them were not coming close to retail. So avoid this one as well, right?
      I would advise against it.
      First off, despite the market for these being the way it is, there are still Speedorz fans. If you have walked into a Lego store with one of these displays, the children are all over it. On top of that, this is the most recognizable of the Speedorz and seems to be the most popular one. From the look of it, this is by far the best set and has the most pieces to it, as well as 3 quality minifigures. As with the other sets we are looking at, it is retiring soon even though it just came out in January. We all know some of the most successful Lego sets have been 1 year runs. Also, being the best of the Speedorz sets, it will be by far the most sought after. Being the most expensive of them, it will most likely be stocked the least as well.  Finally, it is a Toys R Us Exclusive, so there are a lot less people that have actually seen it or purchased it than all the other speedorz sets.
      Should you buy this at retail? Not necessarily - although I think it will still gain there. A lot of my investment value on this set comes from its clearancing in the Lego store. I picked up quite a few of these the last several weeks ago for 20$. At that price it is a total steal, and you hopefully will be able to find them in your local Lego stores as well. As for at Toys R Us, they have had a couple of good sales on these, and I really think you are pretty safe at 30$. Toys R Us exclusives seem to linger a bit longer because they stock them somewhat abnormally, so I think you still have a chance to get this set.
      Its outlook? Well, we don't have any Chima sets to compare it to that are retired obviously, but we can look at a couple of takeaways. First, lets look at what it has done the last month:
      Sold Listings: 40
      Last 10 Sold Listings: $40.24 average
      It certainly was not incredibly popular during the Christmas season, but it definitely rose quite a bit - only 67 listings in the past 90 days on Ebay meaning the last month (including the beginning of January) outsold the last two months combined considerably. This does not tell us a whole lot, but it does say that people were searching the set out. More over, the average sold listing is great. The set sold at retail - and has continued to do so making its investment outlook a lot better. Now that this set is sold out at Lego.com, and as it dwindles at Toys R Us, it will start creeping up. Now how about a good comparison?
      Unfortunately there aren't a ton of good sets to compare it to, but there is one that I think is perfect : 2504 Ninjago Spijitzu Dojo. These set are eirely similar is about everything - although the Eagles Castle was 10$ cheaper. Also, the Dojo only lasted a year as well and has been a solid gainer since. Take a look at the similarities below:

      See what I mean? I will agree the Dojo is a bit cooler, but it was a bit more overpriced so I feel like it will work itself out. This set was also, similarly, the best of the first spinner sets released.
      I want to make it clear, this may not be a huge investment gainer - and definitely don't go out and buy a ton at 40$. However, I think this set has a lot of potential for the reasons mentioned above. Lego is seemingly getting rid of all their current Speedorz. If they don't come back, this becomes a possible "legendary" retired set. If they do come back, this is the original best set with the most to offer. On potential alone I think it is worth having and is an absolute no-brainer at half the price. Do not be worried about the overstocking or the clearancing of this item. It certainly didn't hurt the price during December and with just a one year run, these will dwindle soon enough.
      Predicted two year post-retirement CAGR: 15%
      Predicted Sale Value: $61
      This is a very modest prediction - especially since several of the latest listings have sold at just under 50$. Looking at this, if you get this set at 20$ you will easily double your money. This set has the potential to go much higher than that, so a safe projection of doubling your money with the possible to do much more is the best you could ask for out of a small set.
      Where to Buy: Unless TRU has another big sale, get this at the Lego store if they still have them.
      70012 Chi Radar

      Lego.com description:
      Grab the Eagle tribe CHI with Razar’s CHI Raider!
      Climb through the clouds and up to the Eagle tribe’s CHI temple in the sky with Razar’s CHI Raider! Use the 4 flick missiles, rear storage bay and poseable beak, wings, tail, legs and talons to battle past the Eagle tribe’s defenses! Ewar’s only defense against the raucous raven is to power up the CHI cannon and send Razar flapping back to his nest… unless Rizzo can sneak by to swipe the CHI with his hook tool! Includes 3 minifigures with a weapon.
      Includes 3 minifigures: Razar, Rizzo and Ewar Features CHI, 4 flick missiles, rear storage bay and poseable beak, wings, tail, legs and talons Also includes mini eagle CHI temple Includes Rizzo’s CHI weapon Open and close the beak! Fire the raven flick missiles! Pose the wings, tail, legs and talons! Nab the CHI with Rizzo’s extended hook! Fire the eagle cannon and repel the ravens! Measures over 5" (13cm) high, 12" (32cm) long and 11" (29cm) wide Mini CHI temple measures over 2" (6cm) high, 6" (16cm) long and 1" (4cm) wide Investment Outlook: I know this section is called "investment outlook", but let's just ignore that for a second :). I love this set. First of all, its a giant freaking bird! Its awesome and goofy looking, but at the same time incredibly detailed. All the parts of it move, it has flick missiles and a cannon. Its just overall a really impressive set seen built. I have really struggled not to pop one open and take it to work with me.
      Converting this to investment potential, this one is a little hard to read off-the-bat. First off, in December it wasn't one of the big toy purchases, and especially not on Ebay:
      Average of last 10 sold: $34.35
      So it didn't "fly" during Christmas. However, a couple of key points here. First, it went down to $27.98 at the Lego store and was sold out fairly quickly; one of the fastest of the in-stock discount sets to sell out. It sold out at my Lego store very fast two. Second, It was really never promoted or toted up by anyone during the Christmas season like the Chi Temple or Eagle Castle were. This is a Walmart exclusive and Walmart had a very quiet $31.98 promotion on these, but other than that it was all blank until the Lego store had theirs. This set will retire with about the quietest retirement you could ever have.
      So why is it worth picking up? Well, this is a big sleeper to me. I have gone over why its such an awesome set above, but it is definitely one that appeals to people who like the theme. I part out a lot of Chima sets and the birds are the most sought after for sure. This one comes with three of them, plus the giant bird vehicle. In Lego what type of set sells the best out of anything? The answer is vehicles. Can you remember another set with a giant bird vehicle?
      Also, a one year run and a completely under-the-radar retirement. There are not investors sitting around with 100 of these in their attic. Heck, I may be the only one here with multiples. But looking back at my thoughts on Chima, I really think this theme will start to explode once retirements start hitting and this is a set that people will look back at and say "how the heck did I miss this set"? In Lego investment history, there have been tons of sets that no one really seemed to want or want to pay for when they were out, and then retirement hits and they explode. I think this set has a good chance to follow in those footsteps. I don't believe it will explode right out of the gate, but as Chima continues to grow in popularity I think this set will see really nice growth with the potential to become one of the sets you regret buying. To me, that makes it worth it to have a good stash of them. And how many of us can say we are investing in a set no one else is?
      Predicted two year post-retirement CAGR: 25%
      Predicted Sale Value: $78
      Where to buy: Check your Lego store. If they don't, try Walmart as many still have them at $31.98.
      70013 Equila's Ultra Striker

      Lego.com description:
      Test out Equila’s Ultra Striker and protect the magical CHI!
      Take Equila’s high-tech Ultra Striker for the ultimate test drive! Unleash the power of the Eagle tribe’s awesome battle machine featuring massive rubber tracks, huge opening wings, double eagle rocket shooters, front claws for clearing tracks and a cool ejection system! Equila, the great warrior and weapons specialist Eglor are on top of their game, but they must be ready to defend its CHI power when master hunter Wilhurt spots it! Make sure the crafty wolf goes back to his cave empty-pawed! Includes 3 minifigures and assorted weapons.
      Includes 3 minifigures: Equila, Eglor and Wilhurt Features CHI, rubber tracks, opening wings, double eagle rocket shooters, road-clearing claws, opening cockpit and secret ejection system Weapons include a standard weapon and a CHI weapon Tackle any terrain with the massive rubber tracks Clear the roads with the sharp claws! Fire the eagle rocket shooters! Activate the ejection system and escape from the sky! Measures over 5" (13cm) high, 8" (22cm) long and 7" (20cm) wide Investment Outlook: 
      This is the set that I think is the absolute gem of the early retiring Chima sets. It's another bird vehicle with feathers hanging off of it and the beak and talons in front. I think it has an incredible look to it as a tank but also a bird. This one is just special.
      First, it again has tons of moving parts. The tracks, the wings and cockpit can open, the top can eject from the bottom section to fly ( similar to the Ultra Sonic Raider). As a playset, there really is not much more you could get for just 40$. Along with that, a lot of the pieces are rarer or exclusive pieces like the wings, the tracked rubber sections, and the yellow beak and tallons at the front. Overall, you get a lot of really cool pieces with this set as well.
      Along with its short run, it is a Target Exclusive in the US - just like our favorite sets the Orc Forge and the Zombies. However, this one has even a bit more exclusivity being an exclusive in the UK as well with Smyth's Toys. I think there will be a considerable amount of Chima fans later on who have never seen this set and immediately want it because of the playability and special pieces. It was discounted on Legoshop.com early in December and sold out very fast. I actually wanted to grab a few more and they were gone before I got the chance!
      Lastly, it again has two birds in it to go along with the tank representation of a bird. But the special Character here is Wilhurt. Although he is not exclusive to the set ( a lot of the smaller Chima sets don't have an exclusive figure), he is only in one other set ( a much more expensive one that may do some growing of its own) and he is a black wolf - the only one of the wolves that is black. I have sold him a few times and gotten 12$ for him pretty quickly. i think he will be a sought after figure.
      How has this set done lately?
      Average Last 10 Sold Listings: $47.40
      It was not a popular set in December either although there were only 10-15 listings for it at any given time (which makes sense as a Target Exclusive) but more than half of the listings during that time were for over retail and a few were near 60$ meaning people saw the worth in this set. I think this one has a much higher ceiling that the other two and a lot more appeal. With everything said, and the exclusivity everywhere, I see some serious gains for another set you could really call a big sleeper:
      Predicted two year post-retirement CAGR: 30%
      Predicted Sale Value: $90
      Where to buy: Target is your best shot now. I got most of mine when they were $31.98 on the weekend Target had the "10% off should probably make up for all your credit cards getting stolen" sale. I think at $31.98 this set is worth a bet.
      Disclaimers: I do want to stress, make your own decisions. We really have no relevant data on this theme to back up anyone's projection. There were people that though Prince of Persia, Atlantis, and especially Toy Story would do well - and that meant squat in the end. I have really spent a lot of time looking through Chima sets and seeing them built, parting them out, watching sales trends on Ebay. however, this theme could do nothing and everyone could laugh at me (which is fine). I have not invested my whole port folio in these sets for sure. However, I think these sets have the potential to do even better than my projections - honestly I toned down my thoughts on Equilas Ultra Striker - I just think that set rocks.
      Hopefully rather than make your mind up with my posts, I want to merely open the door for some of you to think about taking the plunge. Two months ago, I had that door padlocked, but I looked at everything decided the reward was worth the risk.
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      So its no secret that the 9468 Vampyre Castle has a big following on this site and a lot of people have stashed them away hoping for the killer gains that all the awesome Lego castle's seem to bring. Around November, we were all finishing buying out Toys R Us, the Lego Shops near us (on clearance), and Amazon while salivating over what was to come. Suddenly, Toys R Us orders somewhere near a million for each store to restock for a huge sale. The Vampyre Castle (9468) then showed up on ToysRUs.com as "Our Exclusive" and the debate and panic ensued. Should we return all the sets we bought? How long more will it be around? Will it affect the investment value? Is it worth buying anymore as they go on sale?
      All of these are very legitimate questions. So I decided to write up a best and worst case scenario, some predictions, and some advice on what to do and think about this set. All of this is purely speculation - please do not assume I "know" anymore than one you. Just offering my opinions on the subject - as that's all we have at the moment.
      The Set's Original Investment Potential
      Obviously, no one knows what this set would have done if it had disappeared and fully retired as we expected it in December like the Helm's Deep. However, we have a good idea where this set was headed looking at what was going on with eBay during that time period. Here is a look at where this set was in November:
      BrickPicker Value for the 9468 Vampyre Castle...October - $108.29
      BrickPicker Value for the 9468 Vampyre Castle... November - $102.32
      Last 10 eBay Listings(average) in November for the 9468 Vampyre Castle - $108.90
      So this set was already selling above retail without being retired. The end of November was right in the middle of the TRU 79.99$ sale (when they restocked at each store mysteriously) and this set was still holding its value fairly well. There was a ton of demand as well with around 150 being sold in October to November. This set was starting to look like it could make it to $175 or $200 by next year. But the TRU restock scared a lot of us. Argument ensued with some still on board, others just slowing down, and others yelling "return!" and retreating from the set.
      What Has Been the Effect So Far?
      I was really curious to see what the "Real" value of this set was after Christmas. We all know sets inflate during Christmas and can sometimes make us think a set is worth a lot more than it actually is. I consider a sets "Real" value (obviously you can get a lot more for it) to be what it receives from 7 day auctions that don't end at night and don't only have one bid. I took the last 10 from this set after January (they are still selling quite frequently) following these rules:
      Vampyre Castle 9468 Average Sold Price: $101.45
      Honestly it doesn't look all that bad! There were several auctions with quite a few bids and there were more than 10 sold as Buy It Now auctions as well, so there is still a great demand for the set even as most people lick their wounds from the Christmas season. On the other hand, it's possible retirement may have alerted a lot of people that wanted the set and never bought it. Those may be grabbing them now somewhat slowly simulating the panic buying we normally see with a set's retirement. Lots of questions...
      Worst Case Scenario
      If you have  a lot of these (I am in the middle at 10 - I sold 6 during Christmas as I restocked from TRU) you may want to cry after this. Feel free to skip on to to the next section to keep your day going great! The Vampyre Castle seems to be a TRU exclusive now. For lack of Halloween sets, TRU (At least in the US) decides to keep it for several years seeing that the LegoShop is now out of it and it alone is the retailer carrying the set. Boosting TRU, people cannot find the set anywhere else and start paying $129.99 at TRU keeping the set there for the long haul as one of it's best sellers. Eventually the set finally does retire without any fanfair or panic at all 2-3 years after expected. The price takes a slight jump as people realize it's gone, but stalls quickly as the demand and love for the set has started to die out as people forget about it and the theme. The price stays right around $120 as investors finally decide to cut their loses and dump all of their sets to just try and get the money they paid out of them. The fear of God is put into every investor that ever sees TRU restock a set near retirement remembering this as a huge hit against Lego investing everywhere.
      Best Case Scenario
      Obviously this one is going to be much more preferred by most of us here: Though TRU restocked the set in late November, it exhausted all stock in doing so. They have one more big sale, marking it down to $80 again and we all grab 2-3 more just for good measure. Suddenly, with the swiftness of the Wolverine Chopper, the set is gone. Panic ensues immediately as investors and collectors realize the set just disappeared.  The set jumps to $150 in a mere few weeks on Ebay and approaches $200 by the end of the year, allowing all of us to double our money within just a short period of time.
      What's Realistic?
      I for one believe that, while this became a TRU exclusive, its still about to be gone. First off, a few of these sets, the Scientist 9465 and the Mummy 9462 have both already retired. This one is obviously next as it has somehow been discounted to $25 on the Lego website though already being out of stock. It has officially retired in a few other regions as well.
      ToysRUs may keep it on for a while as their exclusive, but the set is still selling at a pretty good pace. None of the 3 TRU's around me have restocked as it has started to dwindle. They aren't moving particularly fast at $130, but I think they will still be sold out soon enough. All of these other sets in this line are listed as TRU exclusives as well, and none of them have been restocked in a long time at all the TRU's I have been to lately. The Vampyre Castle is the only one at the majority of them that is left.
      Even if it does, the last several months of data on Ebay has proved that people love this set. I think the fact that Lego has not indicated doing more Monster Fighters almost helps this one's cause. It will not be redone and is still the only "haunted castle" we really have in the line. The Haunted House sticking around bodes well for this set as well - people can not forget about the theme if the best set of it is still in stores (and a display in a lot of them as well).
      Though I would agree Toys R Us has put a slight dent in this sets investment value, the lack of other competing sets on the current market, or even the secondary market, this set is still a winner. You are taking a chance it will be around for another year, but I just can't see it continuing past that. So far it hasn't put too much of a dent in the sets value, and especially if you got these for $80 or less, you aren't taking a huge gamble as I don't think there is anyway that this set doesn't hit $130 or $140 the moment it finally is gone.
      My recommendation is to hold tight. I don't recommend buying the set at retail or over (if you see it for $80, jump!), but I think the ones you have should stay with you. The set is still a big winner in my eyes and I don't think this completely changes that. As we are currently seeing with the Fire Brigade, even with the most crazy stocked set there is, we are still in the midst of a time where Lego is so popular that the panic buying of a set that seems to be flooding the market can still make a good buck.
      Just be patient and believe. Box them up and don't look at them. You will feel better about just getting your money out of them in the long run than if you sell now, and watch it soar into the sky shortly after.
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      Next up in my list of sets I am looking to horde this year, I am  going to go through the Ninjago line and pick out the best sets. In reality, this shouldn't be extremely hard since the theme itself has over 40% lifetime CAGR. Almost every set from the first line of these has been a winner - really almost every set that has retired has been a winner. However, I am going to try to narrow down the obvious winners and, for myself, see if I can hone in on the obvious winners. I will mention this a couple of time, but you have to remember with these sets: They are most likely NOT going to see the growth the first line did - doubling within a very short period of time. However, they are going to still do well and should definitely be a great addition to your investment portfolio.
      9450 Epic Dragon Battle
      Level: High What is there not to like about this set? There is a giant 4-headed dragon (usually we talk about 3-headed dragons in stories so here we get one for free), a giant snake, a shrine, and 7 absolutely superb minifigures. There are not a ton of sets with the playability and overall presentation this set brings. The minifigures themselves are great - a few ninjas, Acidicus and Skalidor who are giant snake-like creatures, the Garmatron with somewhere near a billion weapons in his hands, Sensei Wu, and Chokun with a golden mace. I love that they are all different colors as well - just really makes the set stand out with the big white dragon, brown shrine, and green snake (devourer). I have been a little bullish in the past on this set because of a couple of reasons, however. If you have paid attention to the BP price, this set had gotten down around $70 before Christmas. I didn't understand how such a popular set was seeing this. In reality, it is the giant retailers fault: for some reason a bunch of them have chosen this set to basically firesale with TRU leading the storm with that killer $59 deal. However, during Christmas this set sold out and almost got back up to retail, which really renewed my thoughts on it. I actually also had a big scare - I parted out a few of mine thinking it was going to be around for another year and I could get good deals. Then it just disappeared everywhere and I was just hoping it wouldn't retire with my stock depleted. Will we have the same deals next year? I don't know - but don't get left out in the cold without any of these. Target Price: <80$ Target Sale Price: $225
      9449 Ultra-Sonic Raider
      Level: medium Another super set, but one that has been around a long while and has not shown sines of retiring yet. At the same time, this set has got some serious stuff to offer so I still think it will be a nice investment winner. First off, like a lot of Ninjago sets, the minifigures are just brilliant. This ones worst figure is Spitta, which is a lizard-like figure that comes with a mace. The rest are incredible: all 4 ninjas with more weapons than you can ever imagine and Pythor, which sells for near 20$ on Ebay still. Then the raider itself has weapons all over it that come off. The raider moves and transforms around as well as having the cool tracked wheels. There just is not anything this set doesn't have and I cannot imagine children wont want this for years to come. The downside again is the length of time this set has been out. And with this not being tied to a license, Lego can keep it around forever. However, with tons of Ninjago sets coming out in January and more later this year, I think it will be the next one to go for sure. Do not go crazy on the set, but make sure your portfolio has a small stash. Target Price: $55 Target Sale Price: $120
      70505 Golden Dragon
      Level: Medium I think it has been obvious in the Ninjago line that Dragons dominate and I do not think this one is going to be am exception. So why do I have it as "Medium"? Well, for one, its probably here for more than just one more year. Normally I would not even target a set unless I think its gone in a year or so. However, I want to build a stash of these because there is pretty much no chance this set is not a winner. 3 Figures is about standard for a 30$ set, but with the added incredible Golden Dragon and the fact that Lloyd matches in his golden attire really puts this set over the top for me. The Dragon itself is really big as well. One of my buddies is in the Dragon/Ninja type stuff and has a lot of it in his office at work. He came over one day while I was working on my Lego inventory for Ebay. He saw the Golden Dragon and had to have it (with no figures). When I told him $15 he couldn't believe it. The set just looks like it should be more expensive after you build it! As great as this set is, do not expect the 40 and 50% CAGR some of the first dragon lines got. Ninjago was way under the radar there so this is not going to come to those heights being hoarded by people like me. However, it should see excellent gains for a mid-level set and will not disappoint. Target Price: $22.50 Target Sale Price: $75.00
      70505 Temple of Light
      Level: Medium When I first saw this set I was not completely overwhelmed - definitely not like when I saw the Epic Dragon battle. However, after seeing this set a couple of times built, it really has a lot to offer. The set has good minifigures- not as good as the others mentioned here, but good enough - a giant gold Mech and the temple itself which is well built and comes with a ton of weapons as it should. The mech really is the best part of the set display-wise and it really  draws people to it until they notice how cool the temple is. Unfortunately the temple by itself just does not really stand out. Normally, this would be a "low" for me, but I do recognize how much children I have talked to seem to like this set. Also, the last temple set from the Ninjago line is one we would all love to have another shot at (The Fire Temple 2507). I do not think, and really guarantee, that this one will do as well, but I have been able to snag a few of these at really good discounts and I think that this set will at least allow you to double your money with ease. Target Price: 50$ Target Sale Price: $120  
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      It's well known by now, but I started a Lego business a while back in August and have been, like most of you, working to make it the best that it can be. I work in an industry where efficiency is not only the key, but it is expected to grow and thrive with every new iteration of a product or service. Without progress we have nothing, right? Well, I bring this same mindset to my business everyday. Anytime I do something, no matter if I have done it 100 times, I say "how could I have done this better?" and "How could I have spent less time?" or "How could I do this for less?". While I don't want to skimp or do things the wrong way, keeping these questions in mind are the only way to stay afloat in the economic world. Everything is about adaptation: If you aren't ahead, you are behind.
      So looking into that, I wanted to write a blog to do a couple of things. First, I want to give you some of my favorite money saving tips, and then encourage people to post in the comments some of the ways they save money when they buy and work for their business. To make this not 100 pages long, I am really looking at buying materials and merchandise, not necessarily efficiency from a time or bookkeeping standpoint. Here we go!
      Reuse Packaging from your Prior Lego Purchases
      When I see people throw away a good box, it hurts me inside! Boxes are very simple, but some of the most amazing materials you could ever use. Why? It folds up flat!!! I understand sometimes you get a Lego set in and you are so excited to open it, you just toss the box it came in inside the trash can. Believe me, I am seriously lazy too. Instead, cut the seals and flatten that box - you can store it somewhere really easy and re-use it. A lot of people have posted on the forum about where to buy boxes. Unless you are buying in B&M stores or need a special box size, you should never have to buy boxes. I have not bought boxes for a normal Lego set since I started this.
      Some people do have storage issues and that is understandable. One smart thing to do is keep all of your investment sets inside storage boxes. It definitely takes up time, but they are ready to ship later on and you can stack them much easier without hurting the set inside at that point.
      As far as packing materials, if you can, keep these as well. I keep as much packing material from each set I buy as I can. As a business, things are up and down and any time you run out of packing material and have to go buy it, you are losing money. I normally will put packing material that doesn't take up a lot of space, like brown paper, into big bags and flatten it out as much as possible and save it. For all my normal shipments, I will use the big stuff like shipping bubbles in my normal packages. When a fast period hits and I run out, I have an accessible stash of materials I can pull out so I never have to buy any.
      There are a lot of other things that work well as packing material also. When I go to the grocery, I save all my plastic bags. If I open something in the mail with brown paper, or plastic bags around it, I dump it in my packing pile (after removing labels). The people you are sending these sets to don't care what you protect it with - it just needs to get there intact. Get creative with anything that comes to you - if you buy packing material, you are just wasting money!
      Buy in bulk
      When you first get started with a Lego business, or any business really, its hard to think about the future when you buy supplies. Most of us are on a limited budget and we look at rolls of tape and say "I am sending 3 packages day, why should I buy 100 rolls to save 50 cents a roll"? Everyone has to make their own decisions, but if you trust your business will grow, take the plunge on buying in bulk - especially in the first year.
      First off, as you do use them, you will appreciate the money you are saving off those rolls of tape (100 rolls x 50 cents = 50$!). When I first started, I was buying padded envelopes at about 25 cents a piece in 100 counts. After a while, I realized if I bought 1000, I could get them 8 cents each! That makes a big difference to your bottom line, especially if you do that with everything: bubble mailers, tape, paper to print labels, etc.
      Another big reason to do this early: taxes. As I saw my business growing and my amount of materials needed growing, I went ahead and took the plunge on a lot of materials early. Since I need this and capital to allow my business to keep growing, I now can worry about my product and not worry about materials for a while and I can write all of this off my taxes my first year, meaning I get to keep more of my earned profits. Next year my tax bill will be bigger, but in theory I will have increased profit enough to counteract it.
      Obviously you have to make your own decisions about where you want your business to grow, but don't hesitate to buy something in bulk just because it is a lot of money. I never thought I would spend 80 bucks on bubble mailers, but I am so glad I did.
      Buy Supplies on Ebay
      I see a lot of people buy supplies on Amazon quite a bit with two day Prime shipping. While i love Amazon, I think Ebay is the best place to get supplies for a couple of reasons. Ebay bucks and auctions.
      Ebay bucks is a program Ebay has that gives you 2% back on every ebay purchase you make. They add up until the end of each quarter when Ebay basically gives you a gift card for the amount of money you have in Ebay bucks to spend on the website. Now most people are going to say "I get 3% on my Amazon card!". When you go to pay for your Ebay purchases, assuming you don't have a balance, you can select to pay from one of your credit cards rather than your bank account, reaping the rewards they provide also. Most credit cards provide between 1-2% on everyday purchases so this stacks. If you have a paypal mastercard, paypal gives you 2% cash back meaning you will be earning 4% for those Ebay purchases.
      Combined with this, I check out auctions for packing materials constantly. A lot of the vendors on Ebay will put their packing materials on 99 cent auctions (not sure why) with free shipping. If you watch these, you can sometimes score great deals on the big bulk lots. Smaller lots seem to go for the same or more than the Buy It Now prices, but larger bulk auctions usually have less people watching them meaning a better chance you will score. Though it requires a bit more effort, you only have to do it a few times a year if you are buying in big bulk.
      A side effect of using Ebay for this stuff:  I am on it more and more. I notice deals while going to watch my packaging materials and end up scoring Lego sets too. Win-win!
      Cardpool.com
      This is a really awesome website that allows users to sell their giftcards to cardpool for a percentage of the value on the card. Cardpool then sells the giftcards at a preset discount based on the vendor to people like us who want them. My favorite vendor at this site is Toys R Us. You can buy online giftcards for 4% off. If I am about to spend $100 at Toys R Us, I buy a giftcard for $100 at Cardpool for $96 using a credit card that gives me 1% cash back. I then buy the 100$ worth of stuff on TRU's website using the giftcard, and getting 2% in rewards from Toys R Us.
      The website does not have Amazon or Ebay, but does have Target (although Redcard makes more sense), Barnes and Noble, and Walmart as well as many other retailers.
      This leads me to the last one
      Plan your purchases around Credit Card rewards:
      I already wrote a blog about making money off of rewards programs from credit cards and membership cards.
      Expanding on this, Credit Cards are getting more and more aggressive about giving their customers rewards. I have 13 credit cards (how that affects credit is a discussion for another time - please don't just go get 13 credit cards) which I know by heart what percentage I get where with them. For example, for online Walmart purchases, Discover gives me 5%. Discover and Chase give 1% cash back on everything - Citi is 1.5%, etc. Using this info, as I am about to make a purchase, I immediately know which card to use in every situation.
      Most credit cards do quarterly and monthly promotions; Make sure you sign up for these and the emailing lists to be notified about them and take the time to know them inside and out. You can get a serious amount of money back each month (My Amazon card was $125.50 this month!!!).
      Use Brickpicker.com Affiliate Links
      What's an affiliate link? Well, over in the Daily Deals Forum (you must be a BP member) we post deals all day we find online. These links are embedded with a special tag that tells the online retailers that Brickpicker directed the purchaser to the site to buy something. When you make a purchase through this, the retailer gives Brickpicker a percentage kickback for the referral. This is extremely important to Brickpicker as it is free and this money goes to keep this site running and updated with new features.
      How does this save you money?
      Without Brickpicker, I and probably 90% of the people on here would be investing in Construct-a-Zurgs and Prince of Persia and wouldn't have made much money at all, found many good Lego deals, or learned as much about Lego as we do everyday here. This is by far the best way we can give back to Brickpicker and save ourselves money in the future by helping Brickpicker be the best it can be so it can continue benefiting us the most possible.
      Anyone got any other good money saving tips?
    • Grolim
      Look at her, isn’t she a marvel!

      I stumbled upon this set looking back over a few of the older sets in the City theme.  It caught my eye as something I would have loved to have played with when I was a kid, so much play opportunity for a young lad.  Then after looking at sets info page here on Brickpicker the CAGR and secondary market pricing history captured my attention.
      The first thing is that the set boasts a very impressive CAGR of 22.6%, that puts it ahead of all but one of the entire Star Wars UCS sets!
      Then if you look at the pricing graphs you see this: Flat or even dipping value for the last year at least on the pricing graph, on a set still maintaining 26.5% CAGR – interesting!  I guess the volumes are a little low with only 9 sold over the year but that should still be enough to gauge any price movements if present.
      To examine this further we can look down to the Performance Over Time table:

      That to me presents a very interesting view of this sets performance.  In the last two years the price for the set has actually dropped slightly by 11%.  This means it was priced at $143.44 in Nov-2011.  That would mean the set had a CAGR at that point of 41.83%!  Furthermore if we take the assumption that the set had a retail shelf life of 2 years as is the generally accepted average we can start the CAGR calculation baseline at 2008 rather than 2006.  This would mean in the 3 years from 2008 to 2011 the set had a CAGR of a phenomenal 79.05% and a full ROI of 474%, and that’s before even considering a cheaper purchase price via discounts that no doubt would have been on offer at the time!
      We can look at the changes in prices more visually in the graph below:

      Keep in mind that the time scale is not linear as you approach recent periods.
      “So what” you may asked, “how is this relevant to investing decisions I make today?”  Well aside from being just an incredible piece of data and information to admire in its own right, there is perhaps a phenomenon at work here that this may be a prime example of.
      After writing several set reviews and a few blogs in the past year I’ve noticed many sets seem to plateau in secondary market price at around 4-5 times their original retail price.  This set hit 5.7 and has dropped back to 5.1.  To me this makes intuitive sense.  The collector or consumer buying the set on the secondary market has a hard time justifying paying 5 times the retail of an older set they missed out on.  Once you start to get into that price territory the set competes against other demands for the buyers money such as newer retail Lego sets, other EOL sets that haven’t appreciated as much, used sets,  the ability to ‘Bricklink’ the parts, and many other things people want/need to spend their cash on.
      It takes a special set with very high demand comparative to supply in order to push past that barrier.  The average to good sets all seem to hit a peak and flatline or fall away.  Sure some experience a second wind growth spurt but most do not.
      This sort of info may help provide a piece of the information puzzle when deciding how long to hold onto investments I your portfolio.  Unless you are convinced of a coming second surge of growth you may be best advised to divest any sets that show signs of flattening growth once the reach around 4 times their retail price.  
    • Guest
      Six months after the release of the original Galaxy Squad sets (see my article on that wave here), Lego released another four sets. My previous article was a bit (read: massively) over-optimistic looking back, as the sets haven't done well, so this article will explore if wave 2 will be plagued by the same investing mediocrity. I'll also evaluate the two promotion polybags of the theme, 30230 and 30231. Is the line doomed for alien subordination and minimal investment returns? Read on, astronauts.
        70706 Crater Creeper

      Lego.com description:
      Stop the Crater Creeper with green team leader Chuck Stonebreaker!
      Take Galaxy Squad green team leader Chuck Stonebreaker on a mission to exterminate the alien’s Crater Creeper! Jump into the hero hovercraft and chase after the bug-eyed buggoid in the Crater Creeper with insect legs, chomping jaws and flick missiles. Fire the hovercraft’s flick missiles, bring the Crater Creeper crashing to a halt and win the battle with the Galaxy Squad! Includes 2 minifigures with weapons: green team leader Chuck Stonebreaker and an alien buggoid.
      Includes 2 minifigures with weapons: green team leader Chuck Stonebreaker and an alien buggoid Features Crater Creeper and a hero hovercraft• Crater Creeper features insect legs, chomping jaws and flick missiles Hovercraft features flick missiles Weapons include 2 blasters and a sonic gun Don’t get caught in the chomping jaws! Fire the missiles! Measures over 3" (8cm) high, 9" (24cm) long and 7" (20cm) wide Hero hovercraft measures over 1" (3cm) high, 1" (5cm) long and 1" (5cm) wide Eightbrick's Analysis: At $20, this is the closest thing to an impulse set the second wave gets. The green pod is pretty insignificant, but the crawler looks very smooth and organic while still having some technological elements. Unfortunately what it has in looks it can't match in functionality: only 2 of the legs move (the middle ones). The elasticized pincers do a bit to correct this but I found it strange that the posability is restricted, especially since Lego has demonstrated many times recently that it has mastered the art (eg. with Shelob).
      Currently the set has a -5.9% CAGR, a sorry sight, yes, but a flesh wound compared to the CAGRs of the two largest sets of the theme. It is a great throwback to the insectoid line of the 90s and is excellently executed. Call it personal bias or an amateur guess, but I'll peg it's 5-year CAGR prediction at 9%, a good comeback from it's current rate. 10% CAGR will result in it being valued at $30.75 in 2018.
      70707 CLS-89 Eradicator Mech


      Lego.com description:
      Exterminate the alien abductoids with the CLS-89 Eradicator Mech!
      Get back into battle with the bugs with the split-function CLS-89 Eradicator Mech with rapid-fire missiles! Help orange team leader Jack Fireblade and his robot sidekick raise the mech’s powerful arms, load the rapid-fire flick missiles and aim the laser cannon to stop the alien abductoids! When the battle heats up, activate the Eradicator Mech’s split function, lower the wings and take flight in the super-agile galaxy jet with hidden bay door and deployable bomb. Stop the bugs from trapping the Galaxy Squad in cocoon prisons! Includes 2 minifigures with weapons: orange team leader Jack Fireblade and his robot sidekick.
       Includes 2 minifigures with weapons: orange team leader Jack Fireblade and his robot sidekick  Features poseable limbs, rapid-fire flick missiles and a laser cannon  Splits into a mech exosuit and a galaxy jet  Other vehicles include a flying alien abductoid and a crawling alien abductoid  Galaxy jet features lowering wings, opening cockpit with space for a minifigure and a hidden bay door with deployable bomb  Poseable alien abductoids feature cocoons with space for a minifigure  Weapons include 2 blasters and a sonic cannon  Activate the split function to fight back with 2 fierce fighting machines!  Launch the rapid-fire flick missiles and spin up the laser cannon!  Don’t get trapped in the alien cocoons!  Measures over 8" (22cm) high, 6" (16cm) long and 5" (15cm) wide  Mech exosuit measures over 7" (19cm) high, 4" (11cm) long and 5" (15cm) wide  Galaxy jet measures over 1" (5cm) high, 4" (11cm) long and 5" (15cm) wide  Flying alien abductoid measures over 1" (5cm) high, 4" (11cm) long and 3" (10cm) wide  Crawling alien abductoid measures over 1" (3cm) high, 4" (12cm) long and 3" (10cm) wide Eightbrick's Analysis: A somewhat unbalanced (if not chubby) mech for the orange team makes up set 70707. Like the rest of the line, it's a bit thin on the minifigs, at a conservative 2 (both are goodies). Their foes are two brick-built "abductoids"; one winged, the other grounded. It's an interesting idea, having non-minifigure villains, not exactly a groundbreaking concept (having been tried in several action themes before), but it did lead to high success in the Vikings line (15% average CAGR nearly a decade later). The head of the mech splits off into a jet, in a somewhat predictable play feature. Overall, it's a nice set, arguably a lot better than the previous orange team set, 70705 Bug Obliterator. Possibly one of the better bets from this line - but that isn't saying much.
      Fun fact: as of my writing this article, this is the only wave 2 (non polybag) set with a positive CAGR, an impressive 1.63%. Okay, so not anything worth getting excited over, but for a struggling wave that is easily accessible at pretty much all retail locations that sell Lego, I'll take any 1% above retail over nothing. Given that, and that the set was well done, I'll award it a 9% 5-year CAGR prediction again (resulting in a value of $61.52 in 2018). High clearance frequency, especially in an unstable theme like Galaxy Squad, could do significant damage to that number though. There are some interesting parts (the trans yellow bulbs on the back of the insects are exclusive), so if not for the scarce (and mediocre value-wise) minifigures it might have been a viable part out option.

      70708 Hive Crawler


      Lego.com description:
      Stop the Hive Crawler from laying eggs and save the galaxy!
      The alien mantizoid is on a mission across the galaxy in the creepy Hive Crawler with moving legs. Stop it from laying insectoid eggs and spreading the alien threat! Deploy Galaxy Squad red team leader Billy Starbeam and his robot sidekick in the split-function hero speedster! Dodge the double-rotating venom guns, razor-sharp legs and pinching mouth! Then launch a deadly double attack by splitting the hero speedster into a sky speeder for air assaults and a planet speeder for ground combat. Don’t let the insectoid eggs hatch! Includes 2 insectoids and 3 minifigures with weapons and accessories: red team leader Billy Starbeam, robot sidekick and an alien mantizoid.
       Includes 2 insectoids and 3 minifigures with weapons: red team leader Billy Starbeam, robot sidekick with jetpack and an alien mantizoid  Features an egg launcher, 2 hatching eggs containing 1 flying and 1 crawling insectoid, razor-sharp moving legs, rotating laser guns, a pinching mouth and an opening cockpit with space for a minifigure  Hero speedster features detachable blasters and splits into a cool sky speeder and a planet speeder  Weapons include 2 blasters and 4 blades  Stop the Hive Crawler from launching the eggs and hatching the creepy insectoids!  Activate the split function for double the fighting power!  Push the Hive Crawler and make the legs move!  Measures over 5" (14cm) high, 13" (34cm) long and 11" (30cm) wide  Hero speedster measures over 1" (4cm) high, 6" (16cm) long and 3" (8cm) wide  Sky speeder measures over 1" (3cm) high, 0.5" (2cm) long and 2" (7cm) wide  Planet speeder measures over 1" (4cm) high, 5" (14cm) long and 1" (5cm) wide Eightbrick's Analysis: Here we have 70708 Hive Crawler. Again, poor Billy of the reds ends up with only a tiny speeder to work with in his fight against his enemies. That enemy being a impressive queen-insect type vehicle with a massive bulb-shaped abdomen. The set was on display at my Lego store one time I went in for demonstration and it seemed quite a few kids (and parents) were impressed by the legs that move as it is rolled along, turrets, and catapult that can sling pink eggs with larvae inside (seems like a pretty dumb battle tactic, hurling your undeveloped children at your foes - I guess that's where the naughty ones go). The designer of the set did a top notch job creating a fun play set while still keeping with the spirit of the theme.
      The set is suffering a -30% CAGR right now, and it doesn't look like it has a bright future. It has some rarer figures (albeit not many), but isn't a very good value for money at MSRP. It is only out of respect for the designer's genius in maximizing the play features that I give it a 4% CAGR prediction. It's a kick-butt set, but definitely steer clear at retail.

       70709 Galactic Titan


      Lego.com description:
      Defeat the alien caterpillar and hive tower in the final battle!
      Send in blue team leader Solomon Blaze to exterminate the creepy alien caterpillar and hive tower! Only the split-function Galactic Titan can stop the alien army from hatching more eggs. Rescue blue team pilot Max Solarflare from his cocoon prison! Move the Galactic Titan into position with its rubber quad tracks, rotate the double shooter into position and fire at the creepy caterpillar! First, disable its moving joints and dangerous pinching jaws! Then initiate the Galactic Titan’s split function to deploy the deep space destroyer with removable cockpit, rotating wings and flick missiles. Use it to destroy the hive tower’s insectoid egg shooter and cocoon prison. Defeat the alien bugs once and for all in this fierce final battle! Includes a flying insectoid and 5 minifigures with weapons: blue team leader Solomon Blaze, robot sidekick, Max Solarflare, an alien mosquitoid and a mantizoid.
       Includes a flying insectoid and 5 minifigures with weapons: blue team leader Solomon Blaze, robot sidekick, Max Solarflare, an alien mosquitoid and a mantizoid  Features opening cockpit with control panels, quad rubber tracks, fully rotating double shooter, small radar, weapons rack and space for a cocoon  Splits into a planetary defender and a deep space destroyer  Planetary defender features double rotating shooters and radar  Deep space destroyer features removable, detailed cockpit, rotating wings and wing-mounted flick missiles  Alien caterpillar features moving body sections, pinching jaws function with space for an insectoid egg, and space for a cocoon and minifigure on its back  Hive tower features insectoid egg-shooter function with egg, cocoon prison and a weapon rack with 2 alien sonic guns  Activate the split function for double the fighting power!  Open the egg to hatch the insectoid!  Rescue blue team pilot Max Solarflare from the cocoon prison!  Take aim and fire the powerful double shooters!  Measures over 5" (14cm) high, 12" (32cm) long and 6" (17cm) wide  Planetary defender measures over 5" (14cm) high, 11" (29cm) long and 6" (17cm) wide  Deep space destroyer measures over 4" (11cm) high, 9" (24cm) long and 8" (22cm) wide  Alien caterpillar measures over 1" (3cm) high, 10" (26cm) long and 2" (7cm) wide  Hive tower measures over 3" (8cm) high, 5" (15cm) wide and 4" (12cm) deep Eightbrick's Analysis: The largest set of the line and the theme, 70709 gives space fans the proper flagship that they missed out on last line. Not only does it deliver a large double-cannoned tank-shuttle for the good guys, but it gives the baddies a hive outpost to hang in. The alien caterpillar is a minor let down when other sets have much more interesting bugs. It does contain one of the newer aliens and is ripe with play features but the blue vehicle is pretty eyesore (plus it seems like the blue guys are over-represented in the theme). A flagship, yes, but not the grand hurrah we were looking for as the theme comes to a close.
      Honestly I'm at a loss regarding a value prediction for this set. On one hand, it is the largest set of the theme, which should theoretically put it as #1 on the wishlist of Galaxy Squad fans, but then again stumbling space themes aren't healthy pastures for large sets; take recent failures such as 7066 Earth Defense HQ or 5974 Galactic Enforcer for examples. Currently it's sitting at a CAGR of -31%. It feels a bit messy and is slightly disappointing, so the classic spaceship coming out in the Lego Movie theme will likely steal a lot of the set's thunder. All things considered, I'll give this guy a boring 0% 5-year prediction. It will surely fluctuate over the years, but I don't expect it to journey far from MSRP in it's interstellar travels.
      30230 Mini Mech


      No Lego.com description (promotional item).
      Eightbrick's Analysis:
      This little guy was available at Target and Walmart for short periods in 2013, and was also a Lego.com reward for customers who purchased over a specific limit (in August or September, I believe). I actually like it better than its counterpart 30231, as a (extremely junior) polybag collector it seems a bit more imaginative and substantial than a guy and a bug. Conflict isn't necessary (and often missing) in small promo items, and I think the mech, with four moving legs and two lasers is quite nice. The fact that is less rare than 30231 has worked against it (it has a 24% CAGR compared to 30231's 59%), but I think it has room to healthily grow, and wouldn't be surprised to see it only drop to 15% CAGR over 5 years.
      30231 Space Insectsoid


      No Lego.com description (promotional item).
      Eightbrick's Analysis:
      The second Galaxy Squad promotional polybag, this one was only available from Toys R Us. The insectoid provides some conflict that action themes feed off, but it came out a bit bulky and strange. That said, the green team seems more popular than orange and the limited availability has propelled it to a CAGR of 59%. I'll cut that number in three to get a five year CAGR estimate of 20%. If you could get it with a TRU deal such as BOGO50%, it's not a half bad investment - if you don't mind working with small sets.

       

      It's hard to exactly pinpoint what went wrong with this theme. I think inter-competition with other themes was a big chunk of it, not only with Star Wars but with all fantasy/action themes including Ninjago, Chima, pretty soon the Lego Movie, etc. For those wondering, yes this is the final line as no new sets have been reported, it was advertised as the "final battle", and the line hasn't been selling well. I think they gave it a good effort (considerably more than Alien Conquest), but perhaps today's market just doesn't have room for a home-grown space theme. I wouldn't touch anything from the theme with a ten foot pole at retail (except maybe the polybags), and would advise you all to do the same. Catastrophe? Not exactly. It's not worthy of the drama that accompanies a disaster. It's more of a quiet, uneventful, failure.
      Thanks for reading.


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