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    • comicblast
      Welcome to the fourth installment of a series started by Comicblast called “The Superior Market - eBay vs. BrickLink”. If you haven't read the previous articles, I suggest you start at the beginning and read Comicblast's initial articles here ($0.00 to $9.99) andhere ($10 to $24.99). The third installment can be read here ($25 to $49.99) and gives further background about the purpose of these articles and my approach to continuing the analysis.
      [divider] Fees for eBay were calculated as follows:
      No insertion fee was included. 10% was subtracted off the sale price for eBay. Fees on any shipping cost were not included since it is impossible to calculate. 2.9% + 30 cents was subtracted off the sale price for PayPal. Fees for BrickLink were calculated as follows:
      3% was subtracted off the sale price for BrickLink. 2.9% + 30 cents was subtracted off the sale price for PayPal. ** One word of caution for the BrickLink values. BrickLink shows me the values in Canadian dollars and doesn't offer the ability to switch to a different currency despite the claims made by it's settings. I used an average of the exchange rate (1.0504) between the CDN and US dollars over the last 6 months to find the BrickLink US sale price. I.e. $1.00 US = $0.952 CDN  ** The results for the MSRP range from $50 to $99.99 are as follows:
      In this price range, BrickLink pulls into a big lead with the number of sets that sold for higher. Without fees, eBay holds a big lead: 14.66% vs 6.19% With fees, BL comes out ahead: 13.29% vs 10.68% In the $50 to $99.99 MSRP price range, the picture is starting to change. BrickLink has a significant lead in terms of sets sold for more money but those that sell for more in their respective marketplace still have a decent advantage over the other.

      Additional things to consider:
      If you have an eBay store, you may pay significantly less fess. There is no free shipping on BrickLink, so the sale price shown is the true sale price. eBay prices will more than likely include listings that had free shipping as part of the sale price. I'm going to give this round to BrickLink because more than twice as many sets sold for more money. Could this be because in this price range we are moving beyond the mom and pop buyers and into the group of buyers (AFOLs) who are aware of BrickLink? Wouldn't that favor higher prices on eBay? I guess not.
    • comicblast
      Welcome to the third installment of a series started by Comicblast called “The Superior Market - eBay vs. BrickLink”. The purpose of this article is to compare the average sale prices of LEGO sets over the last 6 months. These numbers are the final sale prices, according to data acquired from BrickLink and BrickPicker from August 2013 to January 2014 (yes I realize that the January data isn't 100% complete, but I believe the impact will be minimal).
      Comicblast's original blog post's can be found here ($0.00 to $9.99) and here ($10 to $24.99). The original intention of his blog articles was to simply compare the average selling price of 25 different sets. In the spirit of Comicblast's original attempt to create an unbiased list of sets, I perused the set lists from 2010-2013 and tried to pick sets that offered a variety of successes and failures in terms of resale value. Older sets are retired and newer ones are readily available at retail prices.
      I have decided to take it one step further and look at what the advantage would be before and after calculating the fees a seller would need to pay to eBay, BrickLink and PayPal based on their typical rates. I realize this does not match everyone's selling situation (i.e. if you have an eBay store, you might pay less), but in general it should help to show which marketplace will earn you top dollars for your sets. Fees for eBay were calculated as follows:
      No insertion fee was included. 10% was subtracted off the sale price for eBay. Fees on any shipping cost were not included since it is impossible to calculate. 2.9% + 30 cents was subtracted off the sale price for PayPal. Fees for BrickLink were calculated as follows:
      3% was subtracted off the sale price for BrickLink. 2.9% + 30 cents was subtracted off the sale price for PayPal. ** One word of caution for the BrickLink values. BrickLink shows me the values in Canadian dollars and doesn't offer the ability to switch to a different currency despite the claims made by it's settings. I used an average of the exchange rate (1.0504) between the CDN and US dollars over the last 6 months to find the BrickLink US sale price. I.e. $1.00 US = $0.952 CDN  ** The results for the MSRP range from $25 to $49.99 are as follows:
      In this price range, eBay holds an advantage in the number of sets that sell for more. Without fees, eBay holds a big lead: 18.5% vs 5.9% With fees, BL comes out slightly ahead: 12.1% vs 11.4% In the $25 to $49.99 MSRP price range, the picture isn't much different than the previous two ranges. Many sets don't sell for a significantly higher amount in either marketplace, but some do. If you are willing to sell in both, by choosing the right place to sell, you can make more money in this price range.

      Additional things to consider:
      If you have an eBay store, you may pay significantly less fess. There is no free shipping on BrickLink, so the sale price shown is the true sale price. eBay prices will more than likely include listings that had free shipping as part of the sale price. I'm going to call this round a draw. If you have an eBay store, less fees means eBay would hold the advantage; however, considering that the Brickpicker values likely contain sales with free shipping, the numbers are potentially slightly inflated.
    • Noodlenut
      What makes a great LEGO investment?  Why do certain sets do better than others?  These are questions that LEGO investors should ask themselves before diving too deep into the world of LEGO investing.
      I realize that rare and limited edition sets (e.g. 41999 Crawler, 21100 Shinkai Submarine,) are some of the best investments, but I will not be covering these types of sets.  With rare or limited edition sets, the most challenging part is finding them. It is not hard to decide if you should buy them or not.
      There are many things that can make a set great, but if we can find the prominent features of winning sets and notice a pattern, then we will be able to make the best choices for LEGO investing.  Because money does not grow on trees, it is essential to make wise choices.
      Some sets, like the 10179 UCS Falcon, are exceptional for their build.  Other sets, like the 6868 Hulk's Helicarrier Breakout, are successful because of the rare minifigures and the theme.  Every once in a while, you will come across a great set with an amazing display value, rare minifigures, and a solid theme.  To predict which sets will be successful in the future, we must find out which sets were successful in the past.
      Successful Sets of the Past
      #1. 10182 Cafe Corner

      The Cafe Corner caused quite a stir in the AFOL community.  This set was a success for two main reasons:
      1.  It has great display value
      2.  It was the first modular to be produced by TLG
      There are always new AFOLs every year, and if they are a fan of modulars and want to complete their collection, then they will have to turn to the secondary market.  As more people buy and open this set, the number of sealed sets will go down, but the value of these sets will go up.  This is a great example of a set that has a fabulous display value with regular minifigures.
      #2.  7888 The Tumbler:  Joker's Ice Cream Surprise

      I really wanted to pick the entire Batman theme for this part.  One night I had a dream about the Batman theme after it had retired.  I went into a toy store and bought every single Batman set that they had!  Then I woke up.  It was really unfortunate that I could never take these sets from my dream and insert them into real life. Anyway, there are three main reasons this set did so well:
      1.  The huge AWESOME tumbler
      2.  The well-done minifigures
      3.  The solid theme to ensure a success
      It is almost impossible to stress the importance of #3 enough.  A solid theme can be a make or break for most of the sets available today, no matter how well designed they are.  The minifigures in this set could be better, but they still capture the likeness of the real characters.  The Tumbler has a excellent display value and great minifigures and has been a huge success.
      #3.  Hulk's Helicarrier Breakout

      This is a recently retired set, and still has lots of room to grow.  Hulk's Helicarrier Breakout has been very successful for two reasons:
      1.  The Hulk
      2.  The solid theme to back it up
      Other than the Hulk, this set is not very impressive.  The display value is not that great, and Loki, Thor, and Hawkeye are all seen in at least one other set.
       
      As you can see, this set has experienced rapid growth since retirement and I am expecting it to hit the ceiling at about $200 dollars.  This is an example of a set that is successful only because of one minifigure - the Hulk.
       
      #4.  10179 UCS Millennium Falcon

      Here is the set that every LEGO fan drools over.  The interior of this set is mostly technic and does not offer much playability.  This set is one of most well known sets for three reasons:
      1.  It is absolutely MASSIVE
      2.  It is well designed
      3.  It has serious display value
      Even if you are not a fan of Star Wars, there is no denying that this set is amazing.  It has amazing display value and is huge.  Both of these features helped make this one of the most well known sets in LEGO history.
      Analyzing the Data
      After evaluating these four sets, it is now time to look at what makes a given set successful.
      Minifigure-loaded sets can be found in the Superheroes, LOTR, and Star Wars themes.  Battle packs have had amazing returns and the LOTR Uruk-Hai Army is already appreciating quite nicely, though I do beleive that the best minifigure sets can be found within the Superheroes theme.  Because superheroes are popular at the moment, the minifigures are what fans will want.  Here is another place where it is important to discuss themes.  Licensed minifigures are only successful if the character they are based on is popular.  Therefore, when investing in minifigure-loaded sets, we must be sure that the movie or comic the character comes from is popular.
      However, I would be investing in a lot of larger sets if it were not for one problem: the lack of money.  Money does not grow on a tree.  And if you do not have the money to buy bigger sets ... then you simply do not have the money to buy bigger sets!
      My opinion is that it is good to buy a variety.  People investing in larger sets are probably getting larger returns, but they usually have to wait longer.  Minifigure-loaded sets tend to be cheaper than sets with a notable build and display value.  It takes time for a large set to appreciate, while it is quite easy to flip a few minifigure-loaded sets in a short amount of time.  However, it does not take as much work and time to list and ship one large set than to list and ship ten small sets.
      There are pros and cons to both types of sets.  As I said before, it is good to buy a variety.
      Sets of the Future with Potential
      These are some large sets that have great build and display value:
      1.  10223 Kingdoms Joust

      Previous castle sets have done very well in the past.
      2.  10226 Sopwith Camel

      An exclusive set that has rare chrome, dark tan, and dark green pieces with a nice design.
      3.  10937 Arkham Asylum Breakout

      A great set from the Superheroes theme with a good design and lots of great minifigures.
      4.  10237 The Tower of Orthanc

      One of the best sets available with two exclusive minifigures, an ent, and a brilliant design.
      5.  10225 R2-D2

      Brick-built sculptures have also done very well, and because R2-D2 is a popular character, this set will be a success.
      6.  21005 Fallingwater

      There are a lot of sleeper-sets hidden in the Architecture theme, and I believe this will be one of them.
      7.  42009 Mobile Crane MK II

      A great Technic set that is huge and looks great on display.
      Smaller sets that have great minifigures:
      1.  76000 Arctic Batman vs. Mr. Freeze: Aquaman on Ice

      Every single minifigure in this set is exclusive!  This will be a definite winner.
      2.  76006 Iron Man: Extremis Sea Port Battle

      This is currently the only set with War Machine and Killian.  Even though Iron Man is not exclusive, he is popular.
      3.  76004 Spider-Man: Spider-Cycle Chase

      Venom will appear in a Juniors set, but after they are both retired, this set will soar in value.
      4.  97012 Mirkwood Elf Army

      With four elves, two Gundabad orcs, and a brown warg, this set is sure to be a success.
      These are just a few sets that would be good to purchase before they retire.  I know that there are many more, but I hope this gives you enough information to find out for yourself which sets will succeed.
      Summing it Up
      You may be wondering what my own investing strategy is.  If you would look inside my closet, you would find quite a few smaller minifigure-loaded sets.  I am hoping to sell some of them soon and free up some more money to invest in larger sets.  I do have the Battle of Helm's Deep and some Hulk's Helicarrier Breakouts in my closet.  I do not invest in large sets unless they are about to retire.  I am hoping to get rolling with my eBay account soon and get enough money to invest in some larger sets.
      The most important thing that I hope you take away from this article is that it is essential to invest in successful sets.  Minifigure-loaded sets are great to start out with.  After you get some steady income flowing, begin to invest in larger sets.  Even if finances are not a problem, it is still good to invest in a variety.
      I have had a blast writing this and hope that you found this article helpful and have enjoyed reading it.
    • matrosov
      Tracking your Lego investments is one of the most important topics that are discussed on the BrickPicker forums.  Since I see quite a few questions popping up on the forums about how to keep track of your Lego investments, I figured I’ll write a blog article about it and maybe some of you will find it helpful.
      Terminology
      First we need to get our terminology straight as it will help us to pick out appropriate tools for the job.  There are few ways you can treat your Lego business.
      Long term investment-You buy complete brand new sets hold them for a period of more than one year and sell them at a premium after those sets are discontinued. Short terms investment- You buy new sets now on sale and at discount and hold them for a period of less than one year and sell them during holiday rush at a premium.  I would lump arbitrage investment here as well, where you buy sets in US for cheap and sell them on eBay international to take advantage of currency rate and pricing differentials. Flipping Used Sets- You buy used sets, usually in lots, rehab them to completion put them together, (The fun part if you are an AFOL and/or have Little Legomaniacs around the house), take pictures and sell them on eBay. Parting out, PAB, Lego pounds-Well... the title says it all. Now the question is what can we use to keep financial record of our business?  We need to examine each individual point and see where it falls and what is important to us.
      Long Term investment -What is important?  Our cost basis, our annualized return on investment, record of lots purchased and timing of those lot purchases.  It is quite likely that we will be purchasing same items over the course of year or two for different prices before we sell it so our calculations need to account for that blending as well as holding periods.
      Short Term investment and flipping used sets - We can treat it one of two ways as a short term investment or as a retail business that carries inventory. For the purpose of this paragraph let’s treat it as a short term investment.  Annualized rate of return is no longer important we are holding it for less than a year.  We basically can resort to simple cost and profit calculation. Revenue-Cost=Profit.
      Parting out, PAB, Lego pounds - In my humble opinion if you are heavily involved in this type of investment you are better off treating it as a retail business with inventory. So what is the difference?  In investment scenario you are concerned with cost basis and sale price. In a business scenario to be successful you need to be concerned with properly matching revenue and expenses.  Let me illustrate the difference.  I am simplifying some things from GAAP and tax accounting but the illustration will hold true.
      Short term investment
      Date Set Transaction Total Profit 01/01/2013 Fire Brigade Buy 2@100 -200 02/01/2013 Fire Brigade Sell 1 @150 -50(-200+150) 03/01/2013 Fire Brigade Sell 1@ 200 150(-50+200)  
      Business Accounting-double sided bookkeeping
        Transaction 1 -Buy  2 Fire Brigades at $100 on 01/01/2013 Transaction 2-Sell 1 Fire Brigade at  $150 Transaction 3-Sell 1 Fire Brigade at $200 Result of Transaction
      Accounts Payable(or Cash out the door) ($200) Accounts Receivable(or Cash into your bank account) $150 Accounts Receivable(or Cash into your bank account) $200 Inventory $200 Inventory 100 I sold a FB that was originally bought for a 100 I now only have one set left in inventory valued at 100 Inventory 0, nothing is left. Revenue 0 Revenue 150 Revenue 200   Cost of Goods Sold 100 Cost of Goods Sold 100   Profit 50 Profit 100  
      So if you are heavily involved in parting out and bulk bricks you might as well treat your flipping as a retail business model.  If you don’t do a lot of parting out then treating flipping as short term investment is easier.
      Choosing appropriate tools for the task
      Now we are ready to discuss the tools and I will go backwards on the list.   If you choose a retail model I strongly recommend investing into QuickBooks pro.  It natively supports inventory, double sided accounting, general ledgers profit and loss reports and much, much more.  At $250 retail and there are many coupons floating around, it is very affordable and keeps you sane.  Also comes tax time it can provide you with more opportunities for deductions. As a side note if you make significant amount of money from this activity and live in US. I suggest establishing LLC or Corp and a separate business checking account.  Cost for registering Corp. or LLC is nominal, it does not require an attorney can be done online and it protects you legally.  In the most basic sense Corp and you are two separate legal entities and you are generally not personally liable for misdeeds of the corp.  There are of course exceptions to this rule but they involve fraud, negligence and certain poorly executed contractual obligations. You don’t have to quit your day job to register LLC or Corp.
      Short Term Investing - Excel and some intermediate formulas is all you need.  Let’s start with layout.  For my template I chose a logical left to right vs mathematical format.  I buy the set if it is used I rehab it and incur cost along the way I sell it and incur selling costs (eBay, PayPal commissions.)  For the sake of my blood pressure I chose not to track packing costs separately I do incorporate them in my sale’s price  or I inflate shipping a little bit to cover my supplies.  Trying to keep them separate in excel will very quickly turn into running your business as a business with inventory and I can live with slightly inflated performance view of my investments.  We also need at least two tabs on the spreadsheet one for tracking details one for summary reporting. Once you’re done with your headers go ahead and click this   button on your excel Home Tab toolbar.  This will add named ranges to your spreadsheet and will allow you to extend your ranges by Tabbing into the next row.  I’m assuming you are using 2007 and up excel version. First 6 columns are self-explanatory.  Purchase Price per 1 set is actually a weighted average formula so I must digress to explain what weighted average is and why I choose to use it.  
      Digression begins:
      I buy a used lot of six sets for a $100.  
      Set# Name Market Price 7753 Pirate Tank $ 26.73 8036 Separatist Shuttle $ 17.47 8633 Speedboat Rescue $ 30.87 8016 Hyena Droid Bomber $ 12.73 8037 Anakin's Y-wing Star fighter $ 37.07 7676 Republic Attack Gunship $ 123.60   Total
      248.47
        If I use simple average method to determine cost per each set it comes out to be $16.6 each.  Now let’s say I need to spend $3  on bricklink  to rehab 8016 I look at the market price of 12.73 and say to myself that I’m already in a hole for this set and I’ll just throw it in a trash and I’ll be wrong and lose profit in the process.    My cost per set should be allocated based on that set’s market value weight in my purchased lot.  Here’s how we do it.
       Determine Set’s percent contribution/weight to market value of the lot (Set Market value/Total market value of the lot) Allocate Purchase cost to the set.  (Lot total cost X Set Weight from step one) Based on that my 8036 cost is now only (17.47/248.47) X 100= $7.03.  Spending $3 to rehab it still leaves me with a healthy profit. 
      Digression ends
      Back to purchase price per 1 set formula it looks like this rewritten with column headers vs cell references. ((Set Market price*Quantity)/SUMPRODUCT((Entire column where my lot numbers are="Lot 1")*(Set market price entire column)*(Lot Cost entire column)))*(Lot cost cell/Quantity cell). Sumproduct formula explanation is in order.  In its very basic form sumproduct multiplies ranges of columns and delivers sum of multiplications.
      2 2 3 3 Sumproduct of these four cells is 13  2*2+3*3.  
       
      I use it here to test conditions.  SUMPRODUCT((Entire column where my lot numbers are="Lot 1") will either return 1 or 0 for each row because it’s either my lot 1 or not from there the rest of the formula will either be 0 or the value since 0 multiplied by any value is 0.  With this formula all you have to do is populate your total lot cost for every row in that lot and adjust the formula slightly for each lot to have excel automatically calculate weighted average price per set in a lot.
      Total purchase price per quantity =Quantity*Purchase price per 1 set
      Lot number -we need to populate for every row to have the sumproduct formula work for us.  Simple copy paste does the trick.
      Lot cost -we need that to have our weighted average price per set formula to work
      Set Market price - comes straight from BP Maybe premium members will be allowed to connect via ODBC to it.  Hint Hint.
      Bricklink cost=Cost to rehab the set.
      Sale price- Well… your sales price
      Qty sold is your qty sold
      Gross Revenue- IFERROR(Sale price*Qty Sold,0)+Shipping charged-Shipping Paid. I put error handling in here because I use Sale price column to write in status of my sets i.e. Listed, waiting for parts etc.  With this iferror formula it will return zero if I don’t have a valid sales price in that row.  I also have shipping spread added to my gross revenue because I’m still experimenting with pricing to cover my packaging costs.
      Shipping charged and Paid were already explained.
      EBay insertion fee- you can use that to keep track of those.
      eBay FV fee -IFERROR(0.1*(Sale Price*Qty sold+Shipping Charged),0) again error handling here and your standard 10 percent eBay commission on sales+shipping.
      PayPal Fee - FERROR(0.029*(Sale Price*Qty Sold+shipping charged)+0.3*Q,0) very straightforward  PayPal fee of 2.9% + 30cents per transaction. Shipping in both eBay FV formulas and PayPal Fee formulas are user populated.  I am assuming that shipping could be different for any two items sold from the same lot and you can use simple arithmetic to add to the shipping.
      Net Revenue- IFERROR(Sales Price*Quantity+Shipping Charged-Shipping Paid-eBay Insertion Fee-eBay FV fee-PayPal Fee,0).  I incorporated this column to have a little fun with analytics when it is time for me to think about opening eBay store.
      Total Cost- SUM(Total purchase price for qty,Bricklink cost, EBay FV fee, PayPal Fee)
      Profit is your total gross revenue-Total cost. Profit Margin or more accurately net profit margin is IFERROR(Profit/(Purchase price for qty+Bricklink cost),0).   With all this out of the way  here’s a screen shot of the populated details

      Entirely useless and confusing for analysis.  That’s why we need a summary tab and a pivot table in it. To create a pivot table  go to your insert tab and click pivot table button
       
      You will see popup like the one below, Click on the button on the right and select the range where your detail data is.  And just follow the prompts from there.

      You will end up with a blank pivot table and list of available fields
       
      At this point you can start to experiment by dragging fields from the top right section of the minipivot into the different areas of the bottom right section. The populated pivot table  in the screenshot summarizes my performance per lot purchased. I can get as detailed or as high level as I want and have multiple pivots side by side for quick dash boarding analysis with just a few clicks. Ok we are done with short term investment tracking.  
      Long Term investing
      Using Excel for long term investment tracking becomes an exercise in advanced excel and quite frankly is not worth the effort.  Most of us already have personal accounting software like Quicken Premiere that supports investment tracking natively.
      Go to your tools menu and then select add account option.  You will see this screen.  
      Click on Brokerage under Investing and retirement. Once the next screen comes up click Advanced setup link at the bottom of the screen.
       
      Select  I want to enter my transactions manually on the screen that appears and click next.
       
      Name your account and click next
       
      Next screen you can skip or enter information on it if you have startup cash that you are allocating towards your purchases
       
      I suggest you skip this screen and start fresh.
       
      Select No on this screen
       
      Done! Click Finish

        Now find your newly created account it should be in investing section of the left sidebar and click on it. We have a clean slate time to enter some transactions
       
        Double click on the first line and you’ll see the popup below. Change Enter Transaction drop down list to Buy-Shares Bought And populate your information.  You also have an option here to select your cash account or credit card as source of funds for this purchase. 
      And then hit enter/new button
       
      My ticker is my set number. Hit Next

        Quicken will protest and we’ll have to tell it to shut up and hit next
       
      Here you can actually assign asset class to your Lego portfolio.
      Fire brigade belongs to Large Cap in my opinion, Dolphin cruiser would probably be Mid Cap. And hit Done
      .  
      Rinse and repeat until you’re done with your transactions.  Of course you can type this info in directly into ledger screen if you wish.
      Pretty soon your ledger screen will look busy.

      Click on holdings button

      Now right click on your investment  and select price history from submenu, click on New and enter new price.  I suggest doing it once a month to have a good historical representation.
       
      And That is all folks!!!.    
    • Migration
      I tend to focus on bulk. Simple reason really. It's what I spend most of my investment resources on.  While I do have a small and slowly growing pile of boxed sets stashed where the seven year old Sherlock can't find them I will continue to make way more money on bulk lots for the foreseeable future.
      While there are plenty of exceptions with most sets much of the value is tied to the minifigs. Bulk lots are no different, much of the value in any bulk lot is tied to whatever minifigs it happens to contain. Where the difference lies is the condition that they are found in. The pic below is of all the mini figures that I sorted out of a roughly 30 pound lot. And I apologize in advance for the picture quality.

       
      Again that's all of them without any sorting (other than a Killer Croc I spotted him and had already listed him by this point.) When I sort figures the first thing I do is dump them all out. The square is just so you can judge the size.
       
      Some of these are complete, some are striped to the torso, and many are in between. For a small pile like this I use two of the Lego sorting trays and just have at it. I also will toss all Star Wars figures and pieces their own box as I go. After about an hour this is what I had in my trays. And that's one hour with seven year old help. I'm normally much faster.

      The top tray has most of the minifig pieces.  Hands by color, arms, heads by color. When sorting loose heads stick them together, it allows you to look at several at once. It's hard to see in the pic, but I've got them sorted boy/girl as well.  Next I have partial figs, then legs with any that are printed in their own spot, and finally torsos. The bottom tray is more of a catch all. I have a spot for Ninjago, Batman, Indiana Jones, shields, visors, hair, swords/knives, guns/arrows, 3 for hats/helmets, a random accessories area, and a spot for any accessories that go under the head. As I went I pulled out Star Wars and sorted some of them as well.

      The top is a bunch of random Star Wars, the bottom are ones that I could sort by set quickly, and a whole bunch of battle droids. And yes the tray is from the inside of an Advent Calendar. Hey, it was free.
      And lastly all the minifigs that were either complete or close to complete.

      When I'm working on sets having all these guys stand up makes it sooo much easier to scan them all. Speeds the process up considerably. Then they all go back in a box to save space. So that's it, my patented quick sort method for minifigs. While I'm sure everyone has there own way of doing a sort like this, this method has worked well for me over the last few years. Now go get to sorting.  
    • Grolim
      This the eighth entry in a series of blogs that analyses some of the data we have available here on Brickpicker to provide some simple averages to use as benchmarks.  I have done the Star Wars, Ninjago, LOTR/Hobbit, City, Super heroes, Technic, and Friends themes and this time it’s a triple header!  I’m going to put three retired popular movie based themes up at the same time – Harry Potter, Indiana Jones, and Pirates of the Caribbean.
      My aim is to provide some basic stats for the theme mainly around averages for a few simple measures relating to set sizes and value for money metrics.  I’m going to leave out investment return measures such as CAGR and the various ROI time periods we have available as I think they should be a different discussion and the fact that current retail sets often muddy the results when looking at theme wide averages.
      This information should prove useful in writing other blog articles or set reviews.  It also should serve as a benchmark to be able to compare a set against the averages for its theme, which may or may not be useful but the option is there.  Over time as I hope to complete more of these blog posts we might also be able to compare themes against each other.  
      Basic Information
      I have gathered data on 84 sets from Brickpicker set pages across the three themes.   I’m only going to look at US based information in regards to retail price etc.
      Of the 84 there are 53 Harry Potter (HP) sets, 17 Indiana Jones (IJ) sets, and 14 Pirates of the Caribbean (PotC) sets.
      I can also tell you that of the 84 sets 7 of them had no listed retail price (promotional giveaways).  So we need to exclude those from some of the later measures that require a retail price to be present. 2 for HP, 1 for IJ, and 4 for PotC.  
      Pieces
      The average piece counts per set are 322 pieces for HP, 353 for IJ, and 303 for PotC. 
       
      Retail Price
      For the sets with a retail price the averages are $35.58 for HP, $37.55 for IJ, and $48.69 for PotC.  Interestingly the PotC theme has the lowest average piece count but conversely the highest average price. 

      Price Per Piece (PPP)
      Whether you like using PPP as a measure of value for money or not I have included it here as it has become quite a common metric for people to use.  Personally I don’t put much stock in it and find it quite a blunt tool.  The averages are $0.119 for HP, $0.106 for IJ, and $0.158 for PotC per piece.  Carrying through from the above metrics we can see PotC is well above the other two themes
       
      Price Per Gram (PPG)
      PPG is in my opinion a better indicator of retail value for money.  It takes into account the amount of raw ABS plastic material you get in the box and should be a closer approximation to the cost of production of the set. The average PPG measures are $0.058 for HP, $0.056 for IJ, and $0.044 for PotC.  This is a turnaround for the PotC results – what it most likely shows is that the PotC sets contained a far larger proportion of big Lego pieces compared to the other two themes.  This makes sense intuitively as PotC has a few ships with larger hull and other pieces.

      Minifigure Count
      Only 2 HP sets and 1 PotC set do not have a at least one minifigure.  The average minifigures per set are 3.56 for HP, 4.41 for IJ, and 3.57 for PotC.  All fairly high results, showing that minifigures played a large role in the marketing of these sets.
       
      Another interesting piece of information is that of you pay an average of $9.98 per minifigure at retail price for HP, $8.51 for IJ, and $13.63 for PotC.   Thanks for reading and I hope you find a use for some of these numbers either in your own writing or your own investment decision making.  
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      By now, chances are you have seen several of our members posting in the Forum that they have seen random Technic sets at a few Walmarts. On Walmart's website, all of last years line of Lego Technic are listed as "Out of Stock", but "Coming Soon" (you can see this here). Target's website actually allows to purchase any of last year's Technic sets (assuming they ship). Furthermore, if the fall of Toys R Us as a retailer does come to pass in the next several years, one would assume that this line would end up getting picked up by most of the other retailers - or at least Amazon. It remains to be seen whether any of these retailers would start carrying them in B&M stores, but either way they are going to be available to more people. So is this a good thing for Technic as an investment?
      For the people that end up purchasing Technic sets after they are gone, we would have to wonder why they do it. Did they just never see that set? Do they not have a Toys R Us near them? Were they too young? Chances are, most of this comes from people that like the theme and just missed the boat - or furthermore got into the theme after the set came out. Really this is just like an other theme. The difference is, Technic has a much more "cult" following. It is definitely not for everyone and is extremely challenging really appealing more to AFOLs. One could argue that the majority of people who would be into Lego Technic already are, and branching it out is not going to gain a ton more fans or really do a whole lot else for the theme. On the other hand, it could just be that Technic is very unknown at this stage; getting it out there could really fuel the fire for this theme to get going. Before long, it could become one of the best investment themes. Let's take a look at some of the pros and cons of this.
      Pros
      Especially if Technic starts getting carried inside the B&M stores, these sets will be seen by many more people. Looking back, I think Lego Technic has made unbelievable steps forward in design and detail in the last several years. The sets are so much more real looking than they were just several years ago and with the adding of power functions to a good majority of the sets, they are beginning to appeal to a much wider audience. A bigger audience can't be bad right? Chances to buy these at bigger discounts. Where do most of us get our Technic? Amazon UK. We definitely get some good discounts, but we have to deal with damaged boxes, items not showing up, and the massive wait to just get them at our door. If Amazon US is giving us these deals, we won't have to worry about shipping. They will be at our door in two days. We also wont have to order 5 sets to get the best deal either. Clearance Technic: If these hit big brand retailers, this means we have a shot of getting these on clearance at some points. Toys R Us really never clearances anything Lego, and when they do it equates to what should have been the retail price. Though this wouldn't have an insanely large affect on the investment of the brand (other than 1000s of the same set being clearnaced), this would at least give us the chance to get these at a sweet price and score an awesome Technic set for peanuts every once in a while. Technic flipping during the holidays: One thing that seems to commence every year during the holidays; Out of stock sets. We see one set go out of stock, then the price soars and everyone runs around like a chicken with its head cut off trying to find more of them. This year, that set was really the Dolphin Cruiser. I made some really good money flipping several of those. A lot of the Amazon sellers made a pretty penny running around grabbing up Architecture sets from Barnes and Noble. Why couldn't we get in on the fun with one more brand? The Technic Quad 9392 and the Crane 9391 both dried up very early in the Christmas season this year and the prices for both about doubled. Unfortunately, I only had one TRU which I cleaned out immediately. However, I have 6 Walmarts and 4 Targets within close vicinity so things could have been different. There are definitely some notable positives to having this brand around more.
      Cons
      This is an "underground" theme for a reason: Technic is not for everyone. You can argue Disney Princess, or Friends, or Ninjago is not for everyone as well - but Technic requires a certain ability building-wise. It isn't an entry-level Lego theme. So it may not attract as many casual fans. A lot of people would see these sets in stores like Walmart or Target, but they may not buy them, or at least continue to buy them, because putting them together is really more work than fun in a lot of cases. More stores = more sets. This means more and more will be sold. If the supply goes to the point where it is over the demand, the secondary market starts to go buy-buy. Maybe all the people that currently pay secondary market prices for Technic are people that never really knew a certain set existed. They end up reading about it or seeing a picture and then pay double for it. That wont happen anymore if you can walk straight into a Walmart and find any set you want. More discounts = less secondary growth? Its very possible that Technic sets grow as well as they do because you can't buy them at steep discounts. Lets say you are looking to buy 42009, the MKII Crane. It's retail is $220. Toys R Us has a sale and it gets to $200. You purchase 2 and call it a day. On the flip-side, Amazon US has a deal and sells these for $140 - you buy 5. The more sets bought, the more the investment value could go down. You are getting them at bigger discounts, but if that supply starts to go over the demand line you are still in the same place. Why mess up a good thing? Technic sets in general average just above a 9% CAGR. However, the theme has been around for a very long time meaning a lot of sets stopped appreciating a long time ago and are still averaged into that number. In fact, Technic sets in the last 5 years have supported extremely great ROIs provided you followed the better sets like Cranes, Service trucks, and Motor cycles. A lot of us make good money off Lego Technic already - why would we want to take a chance and have it screwed up? Furthermore, we are the only ones getting the big discounts because the average person most likely doesn't know they can get these off Amazon UK. Conclusion
      I definitely see both sides of the argument. Obviously none of us reading this, or me writing it, can really make the decision ourselves. We can hope one way or another though. I honestly hope they do come to stores like Walmart and target. First off, there are already enough themes that are profitable in the Lego brand that having one possibly going by the wayside isn't going to kill us. Yes, it will somewhat stink if that happens, but we have a lot of other themes at the moment we can focus on. I think it is worth the chance because of what Technic COULD become if it does.
      I see the whole situation in a very positive light. I have a Technic set, 42004 Back-loader, on my desk at work. I have it next to an Xwing, a few planet sets, the mini-VW bus and the Creator Prehistoric Hunter. Everyone that comes in notices the Technic set first. They love the moving parts, think it looks extremely real, and most are surprised it is actually Legos when I tell them. I think there is a lot of untapped market out there for Technic. People that love vehicles have always been attracted to Lego because of how well they replicate them and this theme is the pinnacle of that.
      However, there is another reason this could really be big: Licensing. Right now, we have the Unimog - licensed by Mercedes and because of that, a lot of us think what is somewhat of an ugly vehicle will be a big time seller. Why couldn't Lego expand this with a bigger audience? Can you imagine a John Deere Tractor? NASCAR themed Technic Racecars with power functions and remote controls? The possibilities are really endless. I have commented before that in Alabama, Lego is not huge because the majority of people down here love Guns, Football, and Farming/sports vehicles. If Lego taps into these well known licenses, Alabama would be a gold mine. I can imagine a Jimmie Johnson Car replica Technic set selling for 4 or 5 times retail after it retires to the same people that have 50 of the same model cars throughout their house down here.
      Does spreading the theme out mean this will happen? No. But at the moment, if these sets do spread out everywhere it will possibly make Lego invest more money into them. They will start thinking of more licensing options with the wider availability. If they do, we could have on our hands one of the best themes ever in terms of pulling in new Lego fans that were never interested before. Maybe its a dream world, and its definitely just speculation. But I don't think many can argue that more fans of Lego means more money in all of our pockets.
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      Welcome to part 2 of the Disney sets! While going through these sets for this set of blogs, I think I have gotten even higher on them. Obviously I am going to go over why on each of the last 3 sets, but I think overall there are some big reasons to think that these sets will be huge down the road. So let's take a look at the last three (All CAGR values based on a two year run and two years of retirement):
      41053 Cinderella's Dream Carriage    
      Lego.com Description: Lead Cinderella on an enchanted carriage ride to the royal castle ball! It’s the night of the grand ball at the castle! A pumpkin has been magically transformed into a carriage by Cinderella’s fairy godmother who has left behind her magic wand. Open the door, unfold the steps and help Cinderella into the beautiful carriage. Be sure to remember the invitation! Watch the golden wheels turn as the white horse leads the carriage past the pretty fountain on the way to meet the Prince. Includes Cinderella mini-doll figure and a white horse.
      Includes Cinderella mini-doll figure and a white horse Features turning golden wheels, opening doors, unfolding steps and a removable roof Includes a flower gazebo with pumpkin patch and a fountain with translucent water element Accessories include an invitation to the ball, magic wand, broom, flowers and a golden head decoration for the horse Open the carriage door and unfold the steps for Cinderella Dress up Cinderella’s horse with the head decoration Detach the horse from the carriage and set it free for its own adventures Remove the roof of the coach for easy play Cinderella’s Dream Carriage measures over 3” (10cm) high, 7” (19cm) long and 1” (5cm) wide Investment Outlook: While this one isn't one of my favorites, I think there is obvious serious investment potential in this set. Cinderella's Carriage does not necessarily have a huge "iconic" scene tied to it - unless you count it turning back into the pumpkin - but the carriage itself is something desirable to any Cinderella fan. Lego lovers love vehicles like carriages and they also love horses - which this one comes with! This set is one of the most display-able of the series to while still having a decent amount of play value. The extra stuff included like the horses head decoration and the fold-up steps actually make sense to the set unlike some of the other smaller sets in this theme. Being able to remove the roof of the coach adds a lot of play-ability as well. On the very slight downside, I don't love 30$ sets with only 1 minifigure. It does have the horse, but since there is another Cinderella in a much more desirable set, I think this hurts it a little bit. I also feel like the carriage could have been just a bit bigger as we already have the smaller 20$ and 30$ sets in this series. If they added maybe Cinderella's sisters and the Step Mother, made it bigger and a $50 set, I would have liked it more. Also, who the heck is driving this carriage?!? Either way, the set will still be wanted by pretty much every Disney fan just because of what it is. If this was a whole line of Cinderella, I would say this set might be overwhelming, but with the one minifigure being an exclusive variant and the Carriage being what it is to Cinderella, I think this set easily doubles your money. Predicted CAGR: 25% Predicted Value: $73.24 41054 Rapunzel's Creativity Tower     Lego.com description: Help Rapunzel paint the walls, bake cookies or capture Flynn Rider in her enchanted tower! Rapunzel has been locked in the tower with only Pascal the chameleon for company. That’s why this princess, with her famous long hair, has become extra creative. Help them as they spend their days painting on the walls and baking cookies in the kitchen. Brush her lovely hair and decorate it with the pretty bows. When Flynn Rider breaks in with the stolen tiara, Rapunzel has to bash him with the frying pan and tie him to the chair. Join the pair on their adventures with each other! Includes 2 mini-doll figures: Rapunzel and Flynn Rider, plus Pascal the chameleon. Includes 2 mini-doll figures: Rapunzel and Flynn Rider, plus Pascal the chameleon Features hidden stairs, attic, large window, fireplace, mirror, chair and a flower decoration Also includes a small separate kitchen Accessories include Rapunzel’s hair brush and bows, book, chocolate chip cookies, paint brush and palette, chest with extra paint, frying pan, tiara and a bottle Play hide and seek with Rapunzel and Pascal the chameleon Bake chocolate chip cookies with Rapunzel Pretend to comb her long hair with the brush and decorate it with bows in front of the mirror Paint beautiful images on the walls with the brush and palette Reveal the hidden stairs for Flynn Rider to access the tower Pretend to help Rapunzel tie Flynn Rider up in the chair and go after him with the frying pan! Rapunzel’s Creativity Tower measures over 12” (32cm) high, 4” (12cm) wide and 4” (11cm) deep Investment Outlook: Honestly this is probably the most complete set of the series. The tower is excellently done and the small "fluff" pieces like the painting set and the cups and hairbrush just add tons of play-ability to the set. This is the one set that I think all the parts and extra pieces really match well together. I think the tower is very nice looking - definitely something display-able and because they finished the whole front of it - it looks like its a full tower from a distance. The fact that the tower isn't finished is great for children playing with it so they can get to it easier. The hidden stairs are also really nice and it has two great minifigures as well. I think the fact that this is the only Rapunzel set will make sure its a winner no matter what, but the amount of detail added to this set is really nice. My only complaints would be - the price is a little expensive for a set with only 2 figures and 299 pieces at 40$. I think that will hurt its investment value just a bit. I also really think they should have emphasized Rapunzel's hair a little more as well. It is supposed to be stupid long, but it should definitely stand out more on the minifigure. I also am not hugely fond of the giant stickers on the side of the tower. Even with those facts, with the height in popularity of "Tangled" still among us, this set is going to be a winner. It will not be the set I stock up on the most, but will bring a pretty good return for a $40 set and will definitely be worth paying attention to. Honestly, I would take both the Carriage and Kiss the Girl set over this one though. Predicted CAGR: 20% Predicted Value: $82.94 41055 Cinderella's Romantic Castle     Lego.com Description: Make the royal ball at the Castle with Prince Charming a night to remember for Cinderella! Prince Charming has invited Cinderella to a romantic royal ball! Play with Lucifer the naughty cat and with Bruno the frisky dog. Explore all the different rooms at the Castle and find the key that unlocks the treasure chest with all the jewels. Romance is in the air as Cinderella and Prince Charming enjoy their first turn around the dance floor and a cozy moment in front of the fireplace. Just make sure Cinderella leaves the Castle before the big clock strikes 12 and the magical spell wears off. And remember to leave behind her famous glass slipper on the stairs outside so the Prince can find her again! Includes 2 mini-doll figures: Cinderella and Prince Charming mini-doll figures, plus Lucifer the cat and Bruno the dog. Includes 2 mini-doll figures: Cinderella and Prince Charming, plus Lucifer the cat and Bruno the dog Features tall towers, flags, throne, clock, bedroom for Cinderella, beds for Lucifer and Bruno, outdoor eating area, river, bridge, flowers and a swing Accessories include Cinderella’s enchanted shoe, a hidden love letter, tiara, 5 heart-shaped diamonds, treasure chest and key for the door, a lipstick and a brush Also includes a bone for Bruno and a bowl with milk for Lucifer the cat Help Cinderella get ready in the bedroom Discover the hidden love letter under her bed Take a romantic walk over the bridge and give Cinderella a push on the swing Feed Lucifer and Bruno and tuck them into their beds Cinderella’s Romantic Castle measures over 11” (30cm) high, 9” (25cm) wide and 8” (22cm) deep Investment Outlook: Ok I don't think anyone here needs me to tell you this is a winner. Lego builders LOVE LOVE LOVE castles. Really they are something that make the most sense to build out of Lego bricks right? Much more sense in the beginning than a Millennium Falcon or a Train, right? So thinking about it, what is the most popular castle you can think of? I think you would have a hard time arguing it isn't Cinderella's Castle. If you have ever been to Disney world, you know how huge and amazing this castle is and how important it is to the Disney brand. When people get to Disney who have never been there, this is one of the first things they want to see. Combine this with Lego lover's affinity for Castles and you have a match made in Heaven. This will absolutely be a huge winner. As for the set? Putting aside the iconic argument, the Castle is really so-so. It's not a "full castle" and seems a little bare in a couple of places.  It only comes with two minifigures and 646 pieces is one of the smaller castles in the Lego collection. On the other hand, it does capture the scene really well. It looks like it would display very well and all the little extras provided add play-ability for smaller children. I do really like the dog and cat and the treasure chest as nice added bits. While small, there aren't a ton of cheaper "mid-level" castles in the Lego portfolio so it may almost help this set that it is a more affordable $69.99 as most Castles are $100 sets. In the end, this set really is just too iconic to fail. Despite the Cinderella figure being in the other set and the other flaws I mentioned, I don't think there is a Disney lover out there that wont want this set. Don't think about it - if you see this set for $50, buy it immediately. You will see a serious return. Predicted CAGR: 30% Predicted Value: $200 My Wife's Take: Since this was a theme just absolutely made for my wife, I asked her to weigh in on a few sets and tell me what she liked about them and which were the best. First off, Kiss the Girl was immediately purchased. She said that set was one she had to have immediately and she really didn't care about my "don't buy a retail" rule. Other than it being really small, that is her favorite set and she has already shown it off to several jealous friends. As for the theme in general, she loves what they did and sees it geared towards kids more than anything, but there is enough there for adults who love Disney too. She wants the whole theme. Cinderella's Castle is the most "well made" set in her opinion and thinks it will be the one that is most desirable in terms of demand. In all honestly, her biggest complaint was that they didn't make more of these sets (which I don't think will be a problem). There isn't a bad set in the theme in her eyes. Other Thoughts on this theme: I think Lego is serious, as they should be, about this theme and I think they have really learned a lot about what is popular with their Lego Friends theme. If you have seen or built any of these sets, they are extremely similar to the makeup of those. There is less emphasis on multiple minifigures and more on exclusive minifigures (every one but Cinderella in this theme is) that look really good and have more play value than a normal minifigure as they move a little smoother and are just a bit bigger. With the success of the Friends theme so far in the secondary market and this theme mirroring that, I don't think there is any way this theme does not absolutely kill in the after market. Its a licensed theme, meaning it will probably retire a little quicker and its one that you have to imagine will be continued with how many Disney movies and fans there are. With Lego Friends as a theme sporting over a 50% CAGR at the moment, I am going to say that my predictions for this theme could be extremely LOW. I certainly will be looking for these sets every chance I have on sale and will not hesitate to buy them. They are all relatively smaller sets too which should bode well for storage. If anything, this theme will pull tons of new people into Lego bricks which is good for everyone. I worry with every passing month that we will hit a period where Lego just really doesn't have a great lineup of themes - like now that Harry Potter is done and LOTR is possibly nearing the end. This merger proves that is not the case and we are all going to find that out... with our wallets.
    • ZULU
      Hello everybody,
      Time is money as the old saying goes and that theory applies to Lego investing and reselling.
      Allow me to introduce myself a little. I'm a critical analyst during work hours, a husband with beautiful kids in the weekend (of course) and ... English is my third language, so apologies for my grammar.  Lego was (and is again) one of my biggest passions as I picked it back up in 2012 after the traditional "Dark Age" which lasted more than a decade I'm not proud to admit. I've been reading the blogs of more than one site, listening to the videos of most renown Lego-connaisseurs. Most aspects of Lego are well covered on the web: set reviews for example have become a commodity. Some stuff was lacking. And since I've been growing some experience over the last couple of years, I thought it was time I tested some personal insights on the community. Please read this blog as story of me growing up as a Lego investor.

      I hope the article will be somewhat different to what you've read until now... 
      In my life, time has become the rarest commodity. I'm actually at a stage at work where instead of asking for a salary raise, I negotiate extra flexibility and free time to do other (obviously more) interesting stuff. Image that you have to manage two kids, a 50h/W job, family events every second weekend, garden/house  improvements... When would I find time for my  Lego bricks, games, sports and books I love so much?! It seems therefore paramount to allocate my time extremely effectively. Chose  my own priorities carefully:  boss - wife - kids - hobbies - family: in what order? And what if I started a new project? I'd have to do that even more efficiently!
      As far goes theory, but what did I do? I started the "brilliant" idea of buying second hand Lego sets at steep discounts and resell through Bricklink for a "fat" profit margin... Was this clever? Nooooooo! Looking back at the plan, it seems pretty laughable now. (No offense to anybody - this is my personal experience on paper)
      So I bought big lots from people who wanted to get rid of all their sets at once when they enter the dark age. Using the web to find second hand deals and driving from one place to another to get that  maximum discounts. After cleaning up the wares, I post them on BrickLink - easy money, I thought.
      Let me tell you quickly why that was a bad plan:
      TRUST: 

      You cannot trust the second hand market. 80% of lots I bought were incomplete. 99% of the sets have bricks that are damaged or marked. Selling incomplete sets on Bricklink is next to impossible and requires to discount sharply. Worse are the astute sellers (on the 50 deals I made, at least 10%) who fake their ignorance and leave out that one rare flag, antenna and/or replaced that expensive hair piece of a minifig... You can't check everything even when you buy on location. Luckily I rarely had orders shipped, but the ones that did arrive by mail were even worse off.
      Did you know "black plume (code: 4502a)" in 6066 Camouflaged Outpost ... is worth 20% of the set? I do now, after buying that set on a local market without checking the presence of that little black plastic ornament. 
      I bought 6087 Witch's Magic Manor another day for 15E (50% discount to BL 6m sold price). Four elements were missing: Red Dragon Wing, the cape of the which and two shields. I had to order from three different stores to complete the set...
      COMPETITION: 

      As a buyer on second hand platforms, I am up against others who have more time and know-how. Any auction on Ebay was scrutinized by at least 50 other Lego-investors. I know for a fact of colleagues who spend their lunch breaks surfing for deals. And how many pensioners aren't sorting pieces and stacking them away just to make a day go by more quickly? How can I compete with them? I would need a sorting machine to beat them... Maybe I should've bought only during the Summer, hoping the biggest crocodiles are on holiday?
      And again, I speak from personal experience... There was that "huuuuuge " star wars lot which I though would be an easy doubler/tripler. The discoveries I made were quite nasty. The seller had mixed Lego and Megablocks together to have the lot look larger. Some figs were missing, many smaller rare parts too... It took me several months to get everything sorted and as I didn't have the exact list of all sets that were junked together in those boxes the work of assembling the right sets was hard. The follow-up process of ordering the missing rarer pieces just was a nightmare. Expensive hard to find items are systematically spread over different shops. Therefore duplication of shipping fees is unavoidable. Costs, time and effort rise exponentially. A very good reason not to buy that second hand stuff...and I learnt it the hard way. After my family had waded for weeks through piles and piles of bricks, I  decided to throw the towel in the ring and make a discount clearance. The final P&L of the transaction will never be clear. There were so many "moving parts" and costs that it wasn't looking good. 
      PRICE: Buy cheap! 

      Nothing new there. Apart from finding the sets with the highest potential, the talk of the town on Lego-forums is about "the best" deals.  Obviously I knew that too. So as a rule I started buying second hand at a minimum 40% discount. (ha... ha...ha...) Pretty soon,as I bought almost everything during the first month like a donkey pooping cash, I raised the hurdle to a steeper 60%.But that angered some sellers  who  treated me of opportunist ( = crook) ... I don't like to be that treasure hunter who rips off the lazy adolescent or confused grandma . A good deal in my book is one both the seller and buyer can be satisfied about. Bargaining on the second hand market just didn't seem to be my thing apparently. But if you have the elephant skin, good for you I guess.
      During the Summer I sell used sets for some cash and a good chat on the local street market. There are three king of buyers: First are those who love Lego from their childhood and buy for their kids and get a fair price. Second the ones who think Lego is good quality but too expensive for their hyperkinetic kids. And last them who ask: '50$ for everything?'...
      I count myself in category 1. 
      DISCIPLINE:

      Parts need to be clean, checked, counted, listed and packed. Without making mistakes! It seems I'm not the perfectionist who can re-assemble sets with 2000+ pieces. If a (in most cases Dutch ;)) buyer complains about one or two pieces and asks for a refund, I can't be 100% sure he bluffing. Standard reply is a 5% discount, in order to close the deal and move on. And that mean a lower ROI of course.
      Did you notice that light blue grey becomes light grey after being exposed to the sun? How can I be sure the old castle sets were in fact complete? This uncertainty is a source of frustration for the buyer and seller. And that makes the business modem of reassembling used sets unreliable
        SPACE

      My house is no castle. Space = value. And assemblage and sorting requires a large table and lots of boxes/stacks. It's cold in my basement and there are no windows. It's just not a great place to be. The spiders couldn't disagree more. Second, even though I have success in selling used Lego-sets on the local toy-market, it requires them to be built and showcased. But that takes up even more space! And did I already mention the BrickLink buyers who demand a picture of the set to judge of its quality? That means three steps more: build it first, take a picture, decompose it again and only then box it back... sigh...
      Selling used sets on Bricklink? Not for me thanks. Many buyers are too demanding in my opinion. "This white has yellowed, the grey is light blue, there's a scratch, the box is dented, ... Seems easier to assemble and sell at the local toy-markets during the Summer. Because these sets take up large chunks of storage space which I'd rather fill with new sets, that process needs to be accelerated. I price myself below the market, take the cash and reinvest in higher ROI new sets. And by the way: MISB take dust on the box, used sets have it all over the bricks.
      DEMAND - SUPPLY:
       
      When strolling through the second hand websites, I noticed the police and fire sets were really cheap. Pretty quickly I could build a super safe town full of police stations and fire departments. But when I wanted to sell them, things became quite complicated. Kids want the latest police station from the folder. Adults have already one set for their town. No need for a second. When I had figured that out, and tried to bid similar (50%) discounts on star war sets or Technic boxes, systematically I got outbid! And the "really attractively priced" exclusive set offers were scams. By choosing to pay cash at reception, I avoided those traps.
      When the rarest sets went systematically above the BrickLink price, a little bell started ringing. The laws of supply and demand were working. LEGO on the www is an efficient market.
      MATH:

      The net margin on my sales were disappointing. I bought sets on average at a 45% discount. After ordering the missing parts that margin goes to 30%. Take the additional discount I offer,  there's only 20% left. The size of the average used set is in general also smaller as I cannot rapidly check and sort that many loose parts. That means reverse scale effects (the more valuable the set, the harder it gets), making it a low volume low margin affair...
      I understand that parting sets is a very popular and to some a lucrative business. Others re-assemble Green Grocers, Cafe Corners and Market Streets to make the extra bucks. I have the utmost respect for the $/hour return they accept. 
      And this brings me to the crux of the article:
      "ROI"? NO!
      N.I.C.H.E.: YES!!!
       
      The lesson I have learnt from all these misadventures  is now very clear in my mind. I will never again go for return on investment. This is just a flawed metric. Every purchase has to be ranked according to the "NICHE": the Net Incoming Cash per Hour and Effort
      Let's take for example Viking set n° 7019 I bought at 60$ last year. Getting it was an hour drive. Another second hour of sorting, ordering missing parts, paying, tracking, completion. And it's not even sold yet. It has been sitting on Bricklink in its original box for more than a year at the cheapest rate of the lot, laughing at me and taking a large chunk of space in the stockroom. In fact, it cannot be stacked vertically nor at the bottom of other sets because the box was opened and is therefore weaker.
      Analysis:
      Expected ROI: 50% = 30/60 = great!!
      Expected cash return? 30$. = less great
      Cash /hour invested = 30$ / 2 = 15$ (that's below the minimum wage in Germany!)
      Net Incoming Cash per Hour x Effort = 15$ / 3 = 5$
      Remember: This set has taken me at least 3x more time & effort to get ready and sold than any MISB.
      So I've become wiser. Maybe not clever yet, but at least learning fast. I respect a new set of rules before I buy anything: 
      BUY LOW (you knew that) and LARGE: this way the cash value is high and the NICHE goes up. BUY sets with structural demand traits that ship easily. Make sure the end market is large. As I'm writing, I'm not sure Hero, Chima, Ninjago, Mindstorms have deep enough end markets. Star Wars, Technic, Friends, City, LOTR have it. This is food for another article. Time is value. Don't look at ROI. Do I like selling polybags? No. Are these ROI interesting? No. I haven't calculated the minimum cash amount a set should offer as I haven't set the minimum threshold for my NICHE yet. But I can guarantee it is higher than 5$. Take the NICHE strategy and maximize it. Make up your own personal mind what factors you attribute to "effort". It should take into account: storage, quality, risk, insurance, end markets, shipping complexity (on extremely large sets)... Conclusion
      Did it seem to you as well that this article would never end? Well that's because there are so many factors I underestimated when I started lego-reselling. What seemed to be low hanging fruit - reselling used sets - appeared to be a rotten idea from the start.  Through this article I hope other "start-up" investors like me will save some of that precious time.
      Thanks for hanging in there and good Luck Brickvesting!

       
    • DoNotInsertIntoMouth
      As we all know, The Lego Group is currently experiencing the prime of their existence of a company. They made over a Billion dollars for the first time ever, have even more products than ever, and is by far the most popular toy in America. They have teamed up with the likes of Marvel and DC, Star Wars, Lord of the Rings, and Harry Potter to get there and improve what is already a mighty brand. So what could they add next that will be able to take them a step higher? What other license could they get that would take them any higher? How about pairing it up with one of the most marketable brands of all time: Disney Princess.
      Disney may be the proverbial "match made in heaven" for Lego as they expand their relationship with them. Just as Lego is experiencing its unparalleled prime, Disney is doing the same. Take a look at the Stock for Disney over the last 10 years:
       
      As you can see it has doubled in the last 5 years. Just about 8-10 years ago, Disney was cutting budget, closing their parks early, and the future didn't look quite as bright. Lego was in a similar position right before that time almost going bankrupt. However, both companies weathered the storm and forged ahead to experience some of the most profitable times companies in their respective industries ever have. Disney World has experienced a growth in around 2 Million visitors each year for the last 6 years. They lead the world as the most visited Theme park... by 80 million people per year. Stores are filling with more Disney product and Disney stores are starting to pop up everywhere. Vinylmations, small Disney and other license likenesses on small figures with Mickey ears, have become extremely popular (my wife and I have around 100) and have even become decent investments themselves (some of the original lines sell for 10x retail!).
      So with the union of their Disney Princess Line and Lego's fabulous mainline product )I don't count those Duplo sets), will it bring us something we could only... wish for upon a star? Let's take a look (All CAGR predictions are based on a two year run and then 2 years of retirement).
      Ariel's Amazing Treasure 41050
                     
      Retail: $12.99
      Lego.com Description:
      Discover Ariel’s Amazing Treasures in this amazing underwater world!
      Ariel and her best friend Flounder are searching for lost objects from the human world. Explore the beautiful coral reef and the pretty golden gates with them. Go with Ariel on her adventure to discover all these treasures and hide them away in the treasure chest. Help Ariel practice her singing using the sheet of music, swim through the gates and play tag with Flounder. Includes Ariel mini-doll figure and Flounder.
      Includes Ariel mini-doll figure and Flounder Features opening golden gates and a treasure chest in a beautiful seaweed surround Accessories include a diamond, pair of binoculars, music sheet, trident, opening shell with hidden pearl and a starfish Search for the many objects and hide them away in the secret treasure chest Look for the pearl inside the shell Help Ariel practice her singing with the music sheet Golden gates measure over 3” (9cm) high, 3” (8cm) wide and 1” (5cm) deep Treasure chest measures over 1” (3cm) wide and under 1” (2cm) wide and 1” (2cm) deep My Investment Analysis: This is a great little set. Though it only has one minifigure, it is the perfect one: Ariel. The Little Mermaid is a staple in the Disney Princess line (My Wife's Favorite character by far) and really is to it what Frodo is to Lord of the Rings or Luke Skywalker is to Star Wars. The Little Mermaid is has sets of some of the most recognizable Disney songs and characters. This set is perfect minifigure-wise coming with her and flounder. The rest of the set itself is so-so - I think it might have been a little better if there were more "trinkets from the land world" but it still has a lot of playability with all the treasure. The music sheet is a really nice addition since singing was really the crux of who Ariel is in the movie. This is not one of those sets that will triple or quadruple right after retirement, but I see a lot of worth here. Disney lovers who are older will like the set for the Ariel figure. Small children will love it as a simple set with a lot of playability. I say it will be one of the better winners for a $12.99 set.
      Predicted CAGR: 20%
      Predicted Value: $26.93 Merida's Highland Games 41051
      Retail: $19.99
                 
      Lego.com Description:
      Have fun with Merida and her magically transformed brothers by the castle!
      Merida is practicing her archery skills for the Highland Games! But her 3 little brothers have been turned into naughty little bears and it’s up to her to keep them out of trouble. Join Merida as her brothers shoot cookies from the catapult. Hang up her bow on the beautiful tree or help her catch a fish in the stream. Cook the fish over the fire and, when the food is ready, have dinner at the castle’s dining table… but first Merida must find the hidden key to unlock the door! Includes Merida mini-doll figure and 3 bear cub brothers.
      Includes Merida mini-doll figure and her triplet bear brothers Features Merida’s castle with an opening door and key, key hook, flowers, dining table, cookie-shooting catapult, tree, mushroom, stream and a camp fire with a fish roasting Accessories include a bow and target, fish, chicken leg and 3 cookies Help Merida discover the secret key to the castle Catch the fish and cook it on the camp fire Toss cookies into the air with the catapult Merida’s castle measures over 3” (8cm) high, 5” (14cm) wide and 1” (4cm) deep Tree measures over 2” (7cm) high, 3” (8cm) wide and 1” (5cm) deep My Investment Outlook: I admit, I haven't seen this movie (actually maybe admitting I have seen Disney movies is bad for my "man card"), but I don't need to and neither do you. The movie is POPULAR. First off, its about a Disney Princess who is not really that... princess-ish. More boyish in actions, crazy hair, and a little bit of a wild-child, Merida is someone that a lot of young women really identify with. On top of that, young children love her as well and she has really become the more "modern" Disney Princess.
      The set itself is a little "meh" in my eyes. The little bears and the archery set is nice and is definitely something that would have to be in any Merida set. The castle-front is well done, but I don't think it really adds a lot to the set. It isn't really that impressive and I am not sure that it really offers much play-ability to younger kids as well. I would have liked this as a slightly bigger set with a more "full" looking castle.
      At the same time, the Disney Princess figures of Merida are GONE during Christmas every year. I know because I try to get my young cousin one every year. No matter what this set has in it, the fact that Merida is in it is going to propel it forward. I can not imagine it will not be a huge winner and that the Merida figure wont be a 30$ or 40$ figure later on.
      Predicted CAGR: 25%
      Predicted Value: $48.80
      Ariel's Magical Kiss 41052
      Retail: $29.99
               
      Lego.com Description:
      Enjoy a magical boat ride with Ariel and Prince Eric in the lagoon by the palace!
      Come with Ariel as she seeks to break a magic spell! The enchanted mermaid has traded her voice for a chance to be with the lovely Prince Eric. Only a kiss from his royal lips will break the spell! Take a romantic boat ride with her true love where they meet a frog and stop at the tree in the secluded lagoon. Have a beautiful picnic by the sea or a romantic meal in the dining room of the palace. And when Ariel wants to see what is happening in the world she left behind, go to the telescope on the balcony and take a look. Includes 2 mini-doll figures: Ariel and Prince Eric.
      Includes 2 mini-doll figures: Ariel and Prince Eric Features a royal palace with dining room, bellflower lamp, roof terrace, flags, railings, flowers and telescope, a gazebo boardwalk, plus a lagoon with a tree and a frog Includes a boat with oars and a flag Accessories include a picnic basket, croissant, banana, green apple, royal crown and 2 heart-shaped diamonds Enjoy a delicious lunch in the castle dining room Let Ariel look through the telescope towards her home under the sea Take a romantic boat ride past the lagoon Stop for a picnic by the sea Royal palace measures over 5” (13cm) high, 5” (13cm) wide and 3” (9cm) deep Gazebo boardwalk measures over 2” (7cm) high, 2” (6cm) wide and 3” (10cm) deep Lagoon measures over 1” (5cm) high, 2” (6cm) wide and 1” (5cm) deep Boat measures over 4” (11cm) long and 1” (3cm) wide and under 1” (2cm) high My Investment Outlook: What a great mid-range set. I would argue that this may be the most famous Disney scene of all time. Sure there have been a lot of them, but this is really the crux of this movie and something that I think appeals to women everywhere who have ever wanted to fall in love. The song is a classic - one of, if not the most memorable, Disney songs. My wife looked at this line and immediately squealed when she saw this set. I think this will end up being the biggest winner of the line.
      Unlike the last two, all the parts really go together in this set. Everything is part of the lagoon, the boat is really nice with the oars, it has a lot of play-ability, and also doesn't look bad at all as just a display-piece. Though I was hoping each set in this line would be from a different movie, this works fine as the Ariel figure is different - this is the one with actual legs. If you get the other set, you will have to get this one too. DO NOT miss out on this set - it will be a winner pure and simple.
      Predicted CAGR: 30%
      Predicted Value: $85.65
      Check back in for Part 2 of the analysis. I will cover the other three sets, go over some other reasons that this line may be THE one to watch over the next year and my wife will also weigh in a bit more with her "normal person" thoughts on the sets themselves.


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