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Brickpicker Blog

Brickpicker blog articles on LEGO investing, news, reviews, evaluations, discounts and more...
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There are many people who have invested, are investing, and will invest in various markets, like the stock market. There is a wide variety of what you can invest in, and there is a lot of people to invest in them. Alas, the Lego collecting market is a lot smaller. Not that many people see that Legos can be used as an investment. They just see it as a great toy for children to play with. But, there is a few people who see that you can make a buck or two investing in Legos.
The stock market is continually changing. That is very different for the Lego collecting market. Lego sets are no sold as often and not sold in great numbers as the stock market, but the sets do gain or lose value as the stock market does. There is one aspect that I have not noticed in the stock market, that sometimes occurs in the Lego collecting market. That is that a Lego set will just stop gaining value and stay at the value it is at. Most likely increasing or decreasing a little at a time. This idea seems far-fetched, but it is very possible.
I check the values of sets every month. Then I compare that to what the previous value of the set. Most likely, the set has ether increased or decreased in value, but after careful observation at various charts, one aspect has appeared several times. The set seems to stop gaining value. If you look at a chart for the set, the values for the past months appear to be in a straight horizontal line. Some of these sets will be anaylzed. Here are some sets.
10018 Darth Maul
The 10018 Darth Maul set is an Ultimate Collector's Series set. The set has 1,868 pieces, with a retail price of $149.99 USD. The set was released in 2001.
Here are the values of the set:
New: $727.33 USD, 0% change from the previous month. Used: $412.73 USD, Up 2.8% from the previous month. Current CAGR: 14.06%.
This set has not increased or decreased in value much over the past six months. Over the past year there has only been 10 Darth Maul sets sold new. The sale trend for the set has been the same for the past two months. The four months before that, the sale trend were only a few dollars away from the sale trends from the past two months. Those close sales trends have been affected by how many sets are available to be sold, how old the set is, and how desirable the set is.
10143 Death Star II
The 10143 Death Star set is an Ultimate Collector's Series set. The set has 3,441 pieces, with a retail price of $298.99 USD. The set was released in 2005. Here are the values for the set:
New: $ 1,089.19 USD, Up 8.26% from the previous month. Used: $ 534.20 USD, Down 12.18% from the previous month. Current CAGR: 17.54%.
The set has not increased very much over the past two to three months. Over the past year there has been ninty-eight sold new. I do not consider that a lot. Some other sets have sold hundreds in one month. Because there were more sets sold, the sales trend is a little more varied. The past three months, the sales trend stayed almost the same. If there were less sets sold, then the sale trand may have been less varied. For this set, it is a case of temporary stopped growth. The value of the set did not change much for three months, then the value of the set changed a lot. The set having stopped growth for a short period of time may have been affected by how many sets are available to be sold and how desirable the set is.
7115 Gungan Patrol
The 7115 Gungan Patrol set s a Star Wars set from Episode I: The Phantom Menace. The set has seventy-seven pieces, with a retail price of $9.99 USD. The set was released in 2000. Here are the values for the set:
New: $25.73 USD, Down 3.27% from the previous month. Used: $12.81 USD, Up 25.47% from the previous month. Current CAGR: 7.55%.
The set had its period of barely any growth from November 2012 to February 2013. That is four months of little growth. Over the past year there were sixty sets sold new. That is not a lot for a whole year. From November 2012 to February 2013 the sales trend only varied thirty-three cents. That is very little. For four months, the set did not grow in value. This may have been affected by how desirable the set is, how many sets are available to be sold, and how old the set is.
8010 Darth Vader
The 8010 Darth Vader is a Star Wars set. The set has 391 pieces, with a retail price of $39.99 USD. The set was released in 2002. Here are the values of the set:
New: $82.87 USD, Up 4.46% from the previous month. Used: $35.60 USD, Up 19.74% from the previous month. Current CAGR: 6.85%.
The set has two different periods of little growth. Over the past year, there were sixty-three sets sold. That is not a lot. The first is between July and October 2012. During this period, the sales trend for the set stayed relatively the same, only varieing thirty-four cents. That is not a lot. The second period is Janurary to February 2013. during this period the sale trend for the set almost stayed the same. It only varied thwenty-seven cents. That is very little. These two different periods of little growth, may have been affected by how old the set is, how desirable the set is, and how many sets are available to be sold.
65153 Jango Fett's Slave I with Bonus Cargo Case
The 65153 Jango Fett's Slave I with Bonus Cargo Case set is a Star Wars set. The set has 360 pieces, with a retail price of $49.99 USD. The set was released in 2002. Here are the values for the set:
New: $316.00 USD. Used: $170.00 USD. Current CAGR: 18.25%.
The set has a very long period of NO growth. There has only been one set that has been sold this year. That set was a used set. For the past year, the sales trend for the set has stayed the same. This set is one of the best examples for a period of no growth. The set may have been affected by how old the set is, how desirable the set is, how many sets are available to be sold, and how many sets were produced.
7142 X-Wing Fighter
The 7142 X-Wing Fighter is from Star Wars. The set has 267 pieces, with a retail price of $29.99 USD. The set was released in 2002. Here are the values for the set:
New: $80.86 USD. Used: $30.20 USD. Current CAGR: 9.44%.
The set has a period of very little and NO growth over the past year. Over the past year there were only eight new sets sold on eBay. That is very little. The sales trend for the set is very similar for the whole year. The set has only varied in value by $2.66 USD. That is very little. The set may have been affected by how old the set is, how desirable the set is, and how many sets are available to be sold.
7152 TIE Fighter & Y-Wing
The 7152 TIE Fighter & Y-Wing set is from Star Wars. The set has 410 pieces, with a retail price of $49.99 USD. The set was released in 2002. Here are the value for the set:
New: $ 36.56 USD. Used: $13.33 USD. Current CAGR: -2.8%.
The set has a very long period of NO growth. Over the past year, there were only six sets sold in the past year and those were all used. The sale trend for the set has no growth. It is a horizantal line at $36.56 USD for the whole year. The set may have been affected by how old the set is, how desirable the set is, and how many sets are available to be sold.
65081 R2-D2/C-3PO Droid Collectors Set
The 65081 R2-D2/C-3PO Droid Collectors Set is from Star Wars. The set has 581 pieces, with a retail price of $39.99 USD. The set was released in 2002. Here are the values for the set:
New: $116.33 USD, Up 1.22% from the previous month. Used: $75.67 USD, Down 1.08% from the previous month. Current CAGR: 10.19%.
The set has a very long period of very little growth. Over the past year, there were only fourteen sets sold new. The sale trend for the sets during the year was between $120.33 USD an $110.20 USD. That is a $10.13 difference in the prices for the whole year. Now the average is $116.33 USD. That is in the middle between those two numbers. The set may be affected by how old the set is, how desirable the set is, and how many sets are available to be sold.
6963 X-Wing Fighter The 6963 X-Wing Fighter is from Star Wars. The set has forty-one pieces, with a retail price of $ 4.99 USD. The set was released in 2004. Here are the values for the set:
New: $20.42 USD, Down 1.64% from the previous month. Used: $18.46 USD. Current CAGR: 16.95%.
The set has had a very long period of slow growth. There are only eleven sets sold new in the past year. Over the past year, the value of the set has decreased very slowly. Over the whole year, the set only decreased in value by ninty-six cents. That is 2.67% down for the whole year. The set may have been affected by how old the set is, how desirable the set is, and how many sets are available to be sold.
6967 ARC Fighter
The 6967 ARC Fighter is from Star Wars. The set has forty-two pieces, with a retail price of $4.99 USD. The set was released in 2005. Here are the value for the set:
New: $15.79 USD. USed: $10.81 USD, Up 2.95% from the previous month. Current CAGR: 15.49%.
The set has had a very long period of slow growth. There have been only five sets sold new in the past year. Over the past year, the set has only decreased in value by twenty-five cents. That is 3.31% down over the year. The set may have been affected by how old the set is, how desirable the set is, and how many sets are available to be sold.
After reading this, many of you may be wondering why these sets has little to no growth, when these sets have a CAGR. The CAGR should predict that these sets will grow in value over time, but it is not always possible to know when these periods of little to no growth occur. Here is what happens to the CAGR. The CAGR is a percentage that can shows how much the set is growing in value annually. If you use the CAGR to find the value of a set in a certain amount of time, it can be very helpful if the set does not run into any slow growin periods. During these periods, the CAGR is adjusted so that the value of the set is the same but the amount of time is different. Say that a set has a retail price of $49.99 USD. The current CAGR for the set is 45%. After one year the set has a value of $72.49 USD. Next year the set has the same value but two years have gone by, this means the CAGR has decreased. The new CAGR for the set would be about 20.50%. The aspect of time has affected the CAGR to allow the value of the set to remain the same.
There are various reasons that the set may have stop increasing in value, like how old the set is, how desirable the set is, how many sets are available to be sold, and how many sets were produced. Each of these will be explained.
How old the set is. The age of a set affects when a set may stop growing in value. If a set is only a couple months to two years old, the set may still be avaiable in the primary market. If the set is not available in the primary market, there will most likely be a good amount on the secondary market like eBay. If there is a lot of sets available on the secondary market, the value of the set will change for a while. If the set is two years to five years old, there probably is a decnt amount of the set on the secondary market. Altougth there is not as much as the above, there is still some to be sold. thus affecting the value steadily as time goes on. If the set is five to ten years old, there are some sets available on the secondary market, but there may be periods of no growth. If the set is ten or more years old, there are few to no sets available on the secondary market making the no growth more noticable. From the sets above, I would put the no growth around eight years and above, but all the other factors play in with this too. How desirable the set is. The desirability of the set affects how many sets are sold in the secondary market. Take the Star Wars theme. This theme is very popular, which makes the sets more valuable. They are more valuable because they are more easily recognizable. The more interest there is, the more sets are sold. Also, take the Prince of Persia theme. That theme is not very popular. Because there is less interest in the theme, less sets are being sold in the secondary market. All of this may affect when a set stops growing in value with all the other factors. How many sets are available to be sold. This play a very big role in when the value stops growing for a set. If there are no sets to be sold, then the value will not grow. If there are sets, then the value may grow or decrease. this factor also ties in very closely with the next factor. How many sets were produced. Along with the above factor, how many sets are available to be sold is dependent on how many sets were produced. For example, the 10188 set has been produced for five years and it is still going. For this set, there would be more sets available to be sold in the secondary market. Also, the 10026 Special Edition Naboo Starfighter was only produced for about one year. In that short period of time, there would only be a limited amount of sets available to be sold on the secondary market. All these factors are intertwined together to determine when a set may potentially stop growing in value. You cannot just judge when the set may stop growing on one factor. All these factors are used to determine when a set may stop growing in value.
All of the above sets show temporary no growth, but there may be a "Magic Number" in which a set may never rise past in value. This may occur when a set reaches that point, and may not rise past that because people are not willing to pay more than a certain amount for the set.
Unfortunatly, with all this data it is still hard to point out a number for a set. Here are my best predictions for all the sets I explained above.
10018 Darth Maul: $727.33 10143 Death Star II: $1,090 7115 Gungan Patrol: $29.33 8010 Darth Vader: $89.13 65153 Jango Fett's Slave I with Bonus Cargo Case: $316.00 7142 X-Wing Fighter: $82.30 7152 TIE Fighter & Y-Wing: $36.56 65081 R2-D2 / C-3PO Droid Collectors Set: $120.33 6963 X-Wing Fighter: $21.38 6967 ARC Fighter: $16.04 With all these sets some of them had had some temporary times of no growth, but then their values changed. Those sets still may have no reached that point yet, while other sets have stayed at a price or either have come down from it. Those certain sets may have reached that point when the growth will stop and a set's value will never go above that point.
The "Magic Number" is a very hard number to find and predict, but it is very helpful if you would want to see when a set may stop growing in value. My predictions above are only predictions. Some of them can be wrong and they can change at a moments notice. Hopefully any Lego set does not reach this number. It is a dreaded number. There will be another article about how to find out if a set is close to hitting that number.
Thanks for reading!
The 10215 Obi-Wan's Jedi Starfighter is the latest UCS set to be retired. Saying this the value of the set should increase soon, as almost all UCS sets do. This UCS set is one of the smaller sets. The set only has 676 pieces. This makes it the second smallest UCS set. The smallest is the Special Edition Naboo Starfighter with only 187 pieces. The set has no minifigures, like many other UCS sets, but the set does have a larger astromech head. Usually, UCS sets do really well in the secondary market. Since the set was just retired about a year ago, it is still hard to tell if the set is a good investment this early.
Here are the statistics for the set.
The set has a retail price of $99.99 USD. Since the set has 676 pieces, the Price Per Piece(PPP) ratio for the set is fifteen cents ($0.15 USD) per piece. This set is on the higher end for the PPP ratio. The UCS sets have an average PPP ratio of ten to fifteen cents ($0.10 - $0.15 USD) per piece. Althougth the set has this high PPP ratio, you could still find the set discounted in many places.
Currently, the set has a value of $95.83 USD new, which is $4.16 USD, under the retail price. That is not a lot under the retail price, but it is still a negative return. If the set was purchased on a sale, there probably is a positive return on the set. Because the set has a negative return off the retail price, the Compounded Annual Growth Rate(CAGR) is -1.41%.
My recommedation for this set is to buy it. Eventhougth the set has a negative return and CAGR, the set is an UCS set, which usually do well in the secondary market.
In the first part of this blog, I gave a lot of reason's why Best Offer can be a great thing for buyers purchasing sets on Ebay. However, it is also a great tool for a seller as well. Auctions are definitely a really good way to sell items, but if you want to go with Buy It Now for any reason ( and there are advantages to Buy it Now), I recommend using Best Offer as well.
A lot of seller's avoid Best Offer for many reasons:
They don't want to deal with low-ball offers. The don't want to spend the time responding to offers. You may feel people wont hit Buy it Now because Best Offer is there. While these are understandable concerns, there are a lot of pluses to using this feature when selling.
1. Best Offer attracts more buyers to consider your item
Whether your price is fair or not, having a Best Offer puts it in range for more buyers price wise whether you will actually accept their price or not. Yes, this means you may spend more time replying to offers, but if you really want to sell your item, this can only be a good thing.
A buyer may only want to pay $110 for your $125 item because that’s all they have, and they wouldn't even look at your item otherwise. After looking, maybe they decide they can spend $125 on it, or they at least watch it until they can. Otherwise they may have just passed right on by it.
As well, when searching through items, Best Offer has its own logo which makes it stand out over top of the price when someone is mindlessly searching through Buy it Now items. This means someone may at least read your title or actually click into your listing. I find that items I list for Best Offer get more hits than a normal Buy it Now.
2. You can actually get more money for your item in some cases.
How is that? Well, if you are patient and just want the best price for your item, list it a little high, but give impeccable details and pictures and chances are someone will eventually send you an offer. Now you are in a negotiation. I sometimes find after a counteroffer or two, a buyer may offer me more than I actually wanted to get for an item in the first place.
Just as I mentioned in the last article, the buyer is bound by what they offer. If they offer you a better than fair price, they are stuck with it and it's your gain.
3. If you are selling bulk, you can sell it faster.
In part one, I mentioned how this was an advantage to the buyer. It has its advantages to the seller (as I mentioned in the article as well) too. For one, you might be able to sell all of them to one person which means lower shipping and less shipping hassle writing down all the different addresses.
On top of that – BAM! Your listing is done. Yes, you may have taken a little less money, but its quick money in your pocket which is sometimes worth a little more long term money.
A few extra tips using these suggestions:
If you use number 2, make sure your price isn't two high. Sometimes I do this and so I regularly check the listings views in “My Ebay” to make sure that people are looking at it. If not I lower the price. Be prepared for some low-ballers. The great thing is you aren't required to respond to an offer. So if you really don't have time, you have 48 hours or it will just magically expire. In my experience, avoid using the auto decline features. I touched on this in part 1 where this sometimes shows a buyer you aren't really committed to the Best Offer. More importantly, this wastes one of the sellers offers if they get declined. What if at the end, their next offer would have been your lowest acceptance. I would much rather see all their offers. Also avoid using auto-accept unless its a very small percentage off. If you do, a seller may offer the lowest you put you would auto accept, but they were willing to go higher. You could lose money you would have made! Try a few of these out and report your successes in the comments.
Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
 
One day, while searching on eBay, I decided to have a little bit of fun and search the term “LEGO” and sort by Highest Price + Shipping. What I came across was mind blowing! The most interesting listing I came across was about a person selling their whole store, for about $30,000 including the stock of LEGO’s that they had. Now I wondered, was there a key to buying in bulk? Did you buy small lots, then sort them by color then send them off to some other person who would have to sort through them, or did you buy a huge lot of completed sets, the sell each off in individual lots? Forget about selling, how are you going to even buy it? How much should you look for per pound, what color, what theme?
When buying LEGO’s that are used, you should look for a price per pound ratio of less than $7.50. Depending on the theme of LEGO and color, the price per pound ratio also is different. For example, lots that primarily have gray or black, would sell for up to $15, and lots that include pieces from themes such as Star Wars, Castle, or Harry Potter go for more than a pile of miscellaneous bricks.
Before buying, you need to establish the combination that you will take when selling the lot of LEGO’s:
R1: Instant resale R2: Picking through for a few pieces then reselling R3: Long-ish term investing R4: Buy big, then sell in small lots T1: Find a good deal then immediately sell it again for a higher price T2: Buy several smaller lots and then combine them to sell in a larger lot T3: Buy a lot, then sort by color The BIG question is what is most profitable? That depends on the type of lot you are buying (complicated, right?).
If you are buying a large lot of pieces (35+ lbs) that are of no apparent interest to you, but it was too good a deal to pass then the best combination for you is:
Selling instantly, sort by color, each color lot having no more than 7 lbs of LEGO’s. Selling instantly, but aim for a higher price than you originally sold for to make less money, but less effort. Selling instantly then selling it in smaller lots that are randomly assembled in lots no less than 5 lbs each. Of these three options, option 2 is the most profitable, because you have small lots, and by sorting it by color, buyers know exactly what they are getting. The color that generally is most sought after is darker colors, mainly gray and black. These are in more demand than others because of their use in MOC’s. Another color in demand is white, though it is significantly rarer than other colors such as gray.
If you are buying a large lot of pieces (35+ lbs) that was bought because a portion of the pieces are of interest to you, and the deal was only decent deal, then you will probably lose money. To sell this kind of lot, I would also sort by color. If there is a small amount of a certain color (~1-2 lbs) then combine it with a different color.
If you are buying a small lot of pieces (1-10 lbs) that was bought for the pieces, and you plan on using 50% or more of the pieces, then I recommend just keeping the pieces.
One of the big reasons why people buy bulks of LEGO bricks is because there are often many valuable sets in the lot that are simply waiting to be claimed. This is a very difficult and laborious process, but it is possible. I do not recommend doing this with more than 15 lbs of bricks because there is simply too much to sort through, and is not efficient on your part. Also if the seller is selling multiple lots that originate from the same lot, the odds of having a complete set is low, because there are that many pieces.
Once in a while, however, you will come across a large lot of complete sets that are sold for a lower price than their actual value. If you are successful in these highly competitive auctions, then it is best to sell the sets valued $300+, such as MTT’s, and UCS sets individually, selling smaller sets that are valued at $50 or less, such as battle packs and other small sets in small bundles, but make sure that the bundles make sense. When I say this, I mean that the bundles should be from the approximate same era of storyline, or same theme. By doing this, your listing is more desirable to buyers looking for a certain series of sets. Medium sized sets should also be sold individually to maximize profits.
Before selling a “complete” set, make sure to verify its completion, or else your reputation could suffer.
I hope this helps you when buying and selling your LEGO’s in bulk!! Good luck!
 
Guest
Ever since a Lego store opened in my area, I have been fascinated with the concept of Pick A Brick (PAB) cups. The clear cups, coming in two sizes, offer the customer with the ability to not only choose what they want from a wall of different elements, but also how much they want through packing methods that have been refined over time.
As years went by, my ability to fill every nook and cranny grew. My collection of empty cups grew. And my interest in the cups as investment tools grew as well. Once I realized that the cups offered people with ways to purchase bricks for extremely cheap Parts Per Piece (PPP) ratios, I saw that the cups could lead to excellent investment returns. The following is the result of my investigation into the cups and whether they pack an ideal investing punch.
The Large Cup vs. the Small Cup
Currently, most Lego stores sell two types of cups. There is the small cup, which retails for $7.99 USD, and the larger cup, which retails for $14.99 USD. Obviously, most people believe instantly that bigger is better value, but is that the truth? I conducted a volume test to make sure.
Upon first site, the only noticeable difference between the two sizes other than their height was that the small cup has a wider ring along the bottom of the cup.
For the test, I calculated the volume of each cup and the lid, by filling each container until full with water and then pouring that water into a liquid measuring cup. My unit of measurement for this test is the Milliliter (mL), which I believe provides a more accurate measurement (a Milliliter is equal to 1 cm cubed). However, I have also translated the values to their approximate imperial cup equivalents for universal understanding.

The results displayed on the chart show that the large cup is indeed a slightly better value than the small cup (at no lid, it is 0.28 cents cheaper per mL). This is also good since the smaller cup can’t fit some of the longer elements, such as large plates. I included the differences between lid attached, and lid barely touching the rim because I have found generally, Lego employees are very lenient and if the lid isn’t on, will even provide tape so you can close it with it only touching at one point. Overall, the results of this test mean that it is more economical to pack your pieces into the larger cup, assuming you can pack the big ones just as good as the small ones.
How to Maximize Cup Space
There are several methods to packing parts into your cup. As the cups are cylindrical rather than square or rectangular with 90 degree angles, it is difficult to maximize cup space. This is where all the interesting methods come in. Generally, I would say that packing a small cup is much easier than packing a large cup because it is easier to get your hand into. When packing a Pick A Brick cup, the main objective is to place elements in a way that leaves very few air pockets. Unfortunately, dumping bricks into a cup and shaking it every once in a while still leaves lots of wasted space. In the following section, I will explore the four most popular methods of packing, and see how they fare against each other.
Method 1: Dumping
This method of packing involves pouring bricks down into the cup with no strategy and little to no brick placement. This method is not desirable when packing bricks/plates bigger than 1x2, as it leaves lots of air space in the cup, and the brick placement is random so does not follow the circular curves of the cup.
Bottom Line: good for packing irregular-shaped small pieces or when you are in a rush. I highly recommend against using this method with large bricks, as it wastes lots of space.
Method 2: Central Tower(s)
The central tower method is my personal preference, because it allows you to pack in bricks and irregular pieces without consuming as much time as level packing or circular placement. Basically, this technique involves creating a square tower that grows in size as it reaches the top of the cup, surrounded by smaller pieces or plates that fill in the curved spaces. You can also use this method by making multiple stacks or towers of pieces.
Bottom Line: this method is great if you want a variety of bricks or plates (placed in the “tower) and irregular parts. Plus, it is less time consuming compared to the following two methods.

A partially complete cup packed using the central tower method.
Method 3: Level Packing
Level packing involves making multiple levels of bricks in a circular shape, before putting them into the cup. Generally, the “levels” of bricks grow in size to match the growing width of the cup. This method was made famous by the YouTube video claiming “pack 169 2x4 bricks into a PAB cup” (link below). This method can be time consuming and it is best to practice at home before trying it at the Lego store.
Bottom Line: level packing is a great way to pack a large amount of larger bricks (2x3, 2x4 etc). However, the method is difficult if you aren’t already familiar with the level dimensions you are using.
Link: Pack 169 2x4 Bricks into a PAB Cup (a example of Level Packing)

Method 4: Circular Placement
The last, and arguably most difficult method, is what I call circular placement. Usually used to pack 1x2 or similar bricks, the method involves carefully arranging the bricks into circle-based formations to maximize space. The bricks are seldom connected and this method is very hard and frustrating. If you aren’t good at reaching into small spaces and gently placing bricks, stay away from this method. I have pasted a link to an example of this method below.
Bottom Line: only use this method if you are packing small bricks and have lot of time. Do not use this method if you have difficulty doing small, intricate tasks.
Link: Example of the Circular Placement Method
http://www.flickr.com/photos/notenoughbricks/4910234440/in/photostream/

Extras: Lids, Rings, Tips and Tricks
In addition to the basic methods, there are several tips and tricks that I use to squeeze in a couple extra bricks. Here is a list of them:
The Lid: the lid of the cup will sit in different places, depending on how many bricks you packed in. However, no matter how full the cup is, there is always the same amount of room in the “stud” of the lid; the cylindrical part that sticks out. Always fill this up, whether it is with 2x4 bricks or 1x1 plates. Remember: wasted space is wasted money. The Ring: as you may or may not have noticed, the cups have a small ring on the bottom encircling the circumference of the cup. This allows the cups to be stacked with the stud. To make use of this area, I usually fill it with sideways 1x2 bricks, resulting in an extra 18 bricks in a large cup. Containers: If you are including barrels or stoves in your Pick A Brick cup, be sure to slip pieces into them. You can also use this trick for small windows by placing them facing away from each other, and then inserting a brick in between them. Sales: As with most items in the Lego store, Pick A Brick Cups rarely go on sale. However, they have been known to be included in promotions such as “buy a large cup for the price of a small”, or just the regular 2x the VIP points promo. Other Methods: some Lego stores sell their Pick A Brick stock by the pound. I generally would discourage this as it is much more expensive unless you are buying large, rare parts. Also, some Lego stores offer boxes for $70. These boxes are the boxes that the pieces came in, so you only get one piece and it is pre-packed. However, these boxes are still a good value, especially since they feature 90 degree angles. Lastly, we have the Holiday PAB boxes, which are given out with special purchases. Use these boxes wisely, as the corners are straight and allow for easy packing. So which method is the best? Ultimately, other than the first method, all make good use of the space, so it depends on your time and what pieces you are packing. But, since I know you all love charts and numbers, here is how the different methods compare when packing 1x2 or 2x4 bricks. Keep in mind that some methods (like the central tower method) are meant to be used with a specific combination of pieces so this isn’t the most accurate representation of how they work, and that I made it so the lid is touching in one place at least. I did my best to accurately replicate each method, keeping within a half-hour packing timeframe for each to model the amount of time you might have in a store.
The chart shows that the last three methods are all very successful, and any of them can be used to efficiently pack bricks. If you use the level packing method and pack in 695 pieces like I did, then you will end up paying 2.15 cents per piece. That is about the best deal you find on new Lego, period.
Scoping Out Useful Pieces
Whether you are planning on buying a Pick A Brick Cup for yourself or to invest in, it is important to know where the good pieces are located. You can drive to different Lego stores to check them out, but it would be preferred, especially if travel distances are long, to check them remotely.
The two ways to check the selection of a stores Pick A Brick wall are to call the store and ask them, or to use the website Brickbuildr. Brickbuildr is a user dependant site where visitors to Pick A Brick walls can input what was there and when for other people to see. While I have found the information to be generally reliable if new, the site is not free of inconsistencies. Lastly, always make sure to ask a Lego employee if they have any elements that aren’t on the wall. Usually, they are very helpful and may even take you into the back to look for other pieces.
Scoping out the right piece is very useful if you are strategically planning a PAB haul to maximize profits. Knowing ahead of time what is on the wall can allow you to research the value of the pieces to determine which will lead to the best profits.
Link: Brickbuildr:
http://www.brickbuildr.com/view/pab/
Investment Returns
When you can pack in the elements for such low PPP ratios, the investment potential for PAB pieces is huge. By using a part-out website such as Bricklink, you can sell the pieces as individuals. This may sound tedious, and it isn’t for everyone, but since the stock can be purchased at minimal pricing it is quite profitable.
The pieces I have chosen for my investment returns chart are all pieces that I myself have purchased from a Pick A Brick wall. As I earlier concluded that large cups are better than small ones, everything is based off if the elements were packed into a large cup. Unless otherwise stated, my approximate piece counts are based off my previous estimates using the best result and my theory of one stud volume. Basically, one stud volume says that a 1x1 plate is half the size of a 1x2 plate, a third of the size of a 1x1 brick and so forth. Obviously, this theory is proven (a plate is a third the height of a brick), and is a cautious estimator because generally the smaller a piece goes, it can pack more one stud volume into a cup.

The chart shows two things. One, smaller elements are much more profitable than larger ones based off the sheer number that you can pack into a cup. Two, Pick A Brick investing can be extremely profitable. Now before everyone runs off to buy up all the tiny pieces at their Lego store, remember that selling even one cup’s worth of pieces can take a long time, and to move stock faster you will have to lower prices. If you already part out sets, than you should seriously consider starting to invest in Pick A Brick cups.
Selling pieces for a profit of 160 dollars is unprecedented when the stock cost you $14.99. Plus, I haven’t seen or heard much of PAB elements being used for resale on Bricklink so as of right now, there is little competition. Pick A Brick cups give part out investors a fresh and cheap source to an already thriving market. For that reason, their investment potential is massive.
In conclusion, Pick A Brick cups offer great PPP ratios if you can pack them right, and a decent ones even if you don’t. Whether they offer a profit-pouring punch really depends on investor; if you already work with Bricklink you will enjoy spectacular profits, if you don’t, I suggest you dabble before taking the time and space to start a Bricklink store. But one thing is for sure. Packing a PAB cup is fun, challenging, and the rewarding contents will leave you smiling.
]
There has been a lot of talk in the forums about the Lord of The Rings LEGO theme over the past few months, most of it enthusiastic and positive, but also with some doubters and skeptics. My intent with writing this article is to get a little deeper into the future prospects of this line of sets in the secondary market, and for that I will be making use of another theme that has been recently retired to get a more accurate prediction about what should we expect with the LOTR, and that is Harry Potter.
Those of you that have read some of my LOTR reviews already know that I love making the comparison between these two themes when predicting future performance, and the reason I do is for the current lack of historical information about LOTR sets, since as of this date only one of them has been officially retired by LEGO (Attack on Weathertop 9472).
The similarities between these two themes are pretty impressive once you take a closer look at the way these two series became so popular outside of the LEGO world first, and then how they made their way into the Danish's company portfolio. Let's summarize some of the most important before going further:
Highly successful book series: Both Harry Potter and the Lord of the Rings originated as a series of 7 and 4 books respectively before making their way into the silver screen. Harry Potter was first published in 1997, while the LOTR did well before that, in 1954*. From the books, into Hollywood: After a very short while for Harry Potter, and quite a long one for the LR, and that is Harry Potter.OTR, both of these series made their debut on theaters with theatrical adaptations of the books being released fairly often over the past decades. Harry Potter's box office average per movie was around $1,000,000,000 a figure that is very close to the LOTR's average of around $ 990,000,000. After the movies, interests explodes: Even before the series of movies came out, there was already a large fan base for each of these themes, but once the first movies starting showing in theaters, interest in both started to really get even more spread around. Merchandise and a great varieties of products going from video games to action figures, passing through theme parks (HP) were developed based on the success of the movies. And that is how we got two have two very interesting LEGO themes dedicated to both series.
Now that we have compared the success of this themes outside of our main area of interest, we are prepared to go ahead and see how the one that has already been retired has been performing, so that afterwards, we can go ahead and analyze each of the sets on the LOTR first wave and finish with a more accurate prediction about where this theme might be going.
Taking a look at the Harry Potter theme average CAGR on Brickpicker's data section, we see that the theme places on the Top 20 of all the LEGO themes has released over the course of the years, and considering that it ran for almost a decade including more than 50 different sets, that is a very respectable figure. If you go in a little deeper into the data for individual sets, I can tell you that you won't find even one set of this theme that has not increased in value after being retired. You heard that right, not even one single set with data available from Brickpicker has ever depreciated or even stagnated at its retail value. Pretty impressive if you ask me.
For your information purposes, and to not make this article as long as it could be, next I will present the price guide information of some of the recently retired sets from Harry Potter, as well as some that have already been retired for a few years, to later get into how I think this will be helpful in giving some insights into the LOTR's future performance.
- 10217 Diagon Alley (2025 pieces)

- 4842 Hogwarts Castle (1290 Pieces)

- 5378 Hogwarts Castle (943 Pieces)

- 4766 Graveyard Duel (548 Pieces)

- 4711 Flying Lesson (23 Pieces)

As you will notice from the tables above, there have been a large variety of sets released under the Harry Potter name over a 10 year period, but no matter how old, how big or small, how well known or not, any of these sets has been, the commonality between all of them is a very simple but important one: SUBSTANTIAL PRICE APPRECIATION
Now that we have some accurate information about how the very comparable them of Harry Potter has performed over the years, is time to analyze this in the context of the Lord of the Rings.
Despite the multiple similarities that exist between Harry Potter and the LOTR, the latter has a big advantage that has to be considered to be able and make an accurate analysis, and that is the time it has been around and its popularity over that period. As said before, the Lord of The Rings was first published on 1954 and if we count The Hobbit, it actually has been around for well before that. During this time, the theme has stayed highly popular, especially with adults, and more recently it has added another range of age groups into its fan base, thanks to the release of the movies. As a result, it can be safely said that the LOTR has stood out and passed the test of time already, and that means that more than likely it will stay at least as popular as it has always been.
On the other hand, Harry Potter is a fairly recent phenomenon, that started and finished very quickly, and despite still being very popular franchise, one has to wonder if that will last over the course of the next few years or just fade away once more time has passed without the addition of new content.
I would say that now that the table is set, we can go ahead and evaluate every individual set* from the Lord of the Rings theme first wave, before going ahead and leaving you with you my last comments.
* Not including promotional sets or polybags.
- 9469 Gandalf Arrives

My Analysis: Despite being the smallest one of the LOTR's first wave, this set represents one of the most iconic scenes of the whole trilogy, since it represents the scene that could be considered the beginning of the long journey ahead. A very affordable set that includes two of the most important, but also common, characters in the series, this set can net you some small profits once it reaches retirement, even if only by parting out and selling individually. These have also been spotted on clearance recently for as low as $ 9.00, that makes it an much better deal.
- 9470 Shelob Attacks

My Analysis: One of the best deals of the whole theme when considering its low PPP ratio ($ 0.09), this set is sure to be a winner once retired. In this set you are not only getting Samwise Gamgee's exclusive minifig, along with Frodo and Gollum, but also included is a really cool brick built Shelob that is highly unlikely to make a reappearance in the future. To me, it is this fact that will drive the growth of this set after going EOL, since it is not very often that you get to build a creature as cool as Shelob out of LEGO bricks, plus every Lord of the Rings collector will need to add the giant spider to their collection in order to really be able to say they have at least the most important scenes of the series.
Sam is likely to be re released in the future on some other set, but if for any reason it is not, then we will see 9470 explode in value even more. You just can't have a Lord of the Rings collection without him.
Value prediction: $ 50 by the end of 2014
- 9471 Uruk-Hai Army

My Analysis: A necessary addition to 9474 Battle of Helm's Deep, the value of this set relies on its compatibility with said set as wells as the inclusion of the exclusive Eomer minifig, not likely to make a comeback in any future release. Several minifigs and a pretty decent price tag make this one a great candidate for parting out. My recommendation for investors is to buy at least 1 of these for every Helm's Deep you own to sell later as a combo and maximize your profits. Great army builder.
Value prediction: around $ 52 about a year after retirement
- 9472 Attack On Weathertop

My Analysis: One of the most iconic scenes of the first movie of the series, but at the same time one of the most negatively seen sets by most investors and slightly over priced. In my opinion, this set will give a lot of people a great surprise in a couple of years, mostly due to the fact that will more than likely be the only set that includes the Ringwraiths, who are VIPs in the LOTR series.
An extra incentive for getting this set is the exclusive Merry minifig, but quite honestly I don't see TLG restraining him to only one set in the whole theme.
Value Prediction: Look for this set to double in value two years from now.
- 9473 Mines of Moria

My Analysis: This set has one of the best PPP ratios of the whole theme, and it gets even better when you realize it has been heavily discounted for long periods of time. Only set as of this date to include the exclusive Boromir and Cave Troll maxifig, who are both characters unlikely to be brought back in future releases. LOTR collectors will be all over this set to be able to complete the Fellowship. Some investors and fans don't like this set too much given its "openness", but since this is your typical playset t
Besides those two, Pippin is also exclusive, but unlikely to stay that way for much longer. Great play features and the iconic scene it represents make this a winner in my book.
Value Prediction: if it follows some of the patterns set by HP, I see this one selling for at least $ 125 in one and a half years after retirement.
- 9476 Orc Forge

My Analysis: One of the most unique sets I have ever seen, and a Target exclusive. I don't see this set duplicating the performance of the well known The Zombies just for being exclusive to the same store, but I do feel it will perform extremely well in the secondary market. Completely different look than all of the other LOTR sets, the Orc Forge will enjoy the status of being the set that grows faster in value thanks to the upcoming Orthanc Tower. The fact that TLG will probably have these two sets in the shelves at different times pretty much guarantees that not everyone that wants to pair them will get the chance to do so at retail pricing. DO NOT get caught without one well before 10237 is released. Set this as your # 1 Priority.
Value Prediction: this set will probably double in value in a little less than a year if as many people as I think end up wanting to pair this set with their Orthanc. Best potential of all of the LOTR sets in my opinion.
- 9474 Battle of Helm's Deep

My Analysis: This is the flagship set of the whole LOTR first wave of sets. One of the sets I consider to be part of the "castle" type, this one represents one of the most iconic scenes of the whole series, and is sure to be one of the most popular sellers once it is retired. The one with the best display value of the theme so far also includes two exclusives never to be seen again (probably) in King Theoden and Haldir the elf. Theoden already goes for a large amount of $$$ on ebay, and if it stays exclusive to this set then we will probably see the impact of that on sealed 9474s. The Battle of Helm's Deep comes with a great number of interesting play features and the possibility to extend the walls by doing MOCs or simply purchasing several Uruk Hai Army sets.
Value Prediction: I expect this set to take a page from Hogwarts Castle and go close to $ 225 just a few months after it is retired. It is just to good and iconic to perform any other way.
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So, you just finished reading my individual set analysis and are left wondering how in the world can I be such an optimist regarding every single set of this one theme. My answer to that is quite simple and touches on some of the same points I did before when comparing this theme to Harry Potter.
All of the sets included in the Lord of the Rings first wave, and even those that are coming in the summer now, is as good or most of the times better than most of the sets released over the life cycle of Harry Potter. Take another look to the sets examined above and you will have a very hard time to find even one set that you don't distinctly remember from the movies or even the books, because it so happens that all of the sets that LEGO has currently produced under the license recreate some of the most iconic scenes in the movies.
Even more, unlike Harry Potter, the Lord of the Rings hype and popularity will continue to increase for at least a couple of years more thanks to the current production and release of The Hobbit movies. This fact alone will keep bringing more people into the theme, and some of them in turn be interested in acquiring the LEGO sets representing their favorite scenes.
Last but not least important, the Lord of the Rings LEGO theme will probably not have any of the sets remade ever again, making the value of every single set originally released and retired to increase at a faster pace and sustain that growth for a longer period of time. How many of you remember how many Hogwarts Castle were produced over the 10 year period of LEGO Harry Potter? at least three large ones. This is something that more than likely will not happen with sets like Helm's Deep, so you better make sure that you get some of these sets and add them to your Brickfolio as soon as possible.
I can't finish this article and leave my own question unanswered, so let's get to do that quickly and directly to the point: Will Middle Earth replicate the success of the Wizarding World (LEGO)?
My answer would be a resounding Yes.
Thanks for reading.
 
Now that Quacs has dissected the real value and investment viability of this lot when it comes to complete sets, I wanted to give you all some perspective and information about a very different way to consider the potential of the lot: Parting out the whole lot.
When you start to think about just how many parts are included in this lot, it becomes quickly apparent that there is a lot of upside to opening every single set and selling each brick on a Bricklink store. But let's evaluate this thought a little further and really see the potential benefits for the investor/re-seller.
First of all, I will assume that the buyer will pay the $ 13,500 asking price. Getting a larger discount will of course just make the potential profits even greater, but let's just focus on the "worst" case scenario:
Total Number of Pieces: 183,318 MSRP: $ 18,747 Price Per Piece (MSRP): $ 0.102 Asking Price: $ 13,500 Price Per Piece (Asking Price):$ 0.074 Examining the price per piece based both on retail pricing of the sets as well as the seller's asking price we get two very different numbers. At $ 0.10 per piece based on retail the lot is actually not that bad to begin with, but once you consider the discounted price you get a very nice $ 0.074. When you consider that most sets have a higher part out value than MSRP even when they are available in the market, the appeal of this lot takes a very positive turn. (The following part out value is based on Bricklink's average price for the last 6 months for each element, including whole minifigs and instructions)
Total Part Out Value of the Lot: $ 33,105.85
Crazy, right? This number of course assumes you are able to sell every single brick and minifig for every single one of the sets included in the lot, and ignores all expenses associated with packaging, time, shipping, etc. The only expense I was able to include just to give you a little estimate would be Bricklink's commission from the sales (3%), that amount to around $ 1,000 when all is said and done. That would mean you would get around $ 32,000 for around $ 13,000 in profit.
Even if these numbers may look incredible at first glance, there are several things you have to consider. There are a large amount very desirable and expensive pieces in this lot from sets like the modulars, UCS, and some others as well as a very large quantity of somewhat expensive minifigs that account for a very significant part of the total value of the lot. Just to give you an idea, you would get around $2,200 just by parting out the 3 10188 Death Stars that are included!
Also good to keep in mind is the fact that the number above represents an ideal scenario that is not realistic by any means. There are several costs and drawbacks to parting out LEGO sets, let alone hundreds of them. Some of them are listed below:
Time: Parting out and sorting just one set is a very daunting and time consuming task. To do the same with hundreds of them, including some very large ones, would take a lot of dedication and a very organized storage space to make finding parts a lot easier when selling Not every part included is in high demand. This means that when the time comes to sell, you will for sure have a large quantity of slow moving common pieces that will take a long time to sell, and in all likelihood you just won't be able to sell all of them. This is to me a key disadvantage in this case, as I find no accurate way to really find and estimate the cost of those slow movers. These two are to me the most important things a potential buyer should consider if the objective is parting out the sets. You can see that the potential revenue is very significant, but it would take someone who is really polished in this kind of strategy with an already set up Bricklink store to be able to maximize the profits by parting out.This is not something I would ever consider attempting myself, but it is an opportunity for someone willing to take the plunge.
I attached an Excel file based on Quacs work along with some of the data I collected as far as part out values and number of pieces. I included them on a table format so that you would be able to sort whatever way serves you best.
Thanks for reading, and special thanks to Quacs for his work on this and for allowing me to expand on his analysis.
 
Houston lot 3.xlsx (29.85KB) : 23
This entry of our regular BrickIndex spotlight features a set that some of you may be surprised to find in the list at this point: the 10189 Taj Mahal.
The largest set (by piece count) that LEGO has ever produced has been retired for around three full years and has a current market value of almost $ 1,600 according to last month's data. It is quite amazing that an incredibly expensive set like this finds a place in the Top 20 (#19) fastest growing sets of the past 6 months, but with a growth of around 44% over the period, the Taj has rightfully earned its current spot.
I really don't know for sure, but the way LEGO has been releasing sets over the past few years has me thinking that this may very well be one of the last times we see a set with such a high MSRP and Piece count. I had some hopes for the Sidney Opera House to be very close to this model in both aspects just because the structure, in my opinion, was the perfect choice to bring back a crazy amount of pieces and a higher retail to cater to the AFOL community. The released model still does this to an extent, but I feel that it was a signal that LEGO is not thinking too much about releasing sets of this size anymore (MF and Taj).
Having said that, let's examine some of the performance numbers for this set over the last year:


As you can see, for a set of such high value there are several New and Used copies sold per month, suggesting strong demand. The holiday spike in sets sold is pretty clear in the second graph.
As far as market value is concerned, the set has grown over 40% in the past 6 months, a very significant percentage and dollar amount when you consider the price of the set. The growth in value since December has been quite admirable, going from $ 1,100 to almost $ 1,600 in that short period of time, a very nice return for such a short holding period. There is something that I want to note, however, and it is the fact that in the past 12 months the set has grown almost the exact same percentage as it has over the last six. Why is that? well, as you can see on the market value graph the December Effect is present once again bringing the set down almost a full $200 relative to its November value and back to the price it was selling for in the month of June 2012. Effectively, the set lost all its growth from the second semester of 2012 in one single month. Since then, it has recovered and broken the previous resistance level of around $ 1,300.
Now into my analysis of where the set might be going from this point forward. It is my belief that this set will continue growing over the next couple of years product of being the largest set ever and outstanding level of detail. Having said that, at this precise moment I can't really recommend anyone to purchase this set, as I think that a safer play for those interested in investing in the set would be to wait until the month of December where the model will probably dip in value once again to a price lower than it currently is. The December Effect is actually a quite helpful situation that retired set investors or even collectors can take advantage of in the case of these large sets.
As a result, my recommendation at this point is really split two ways. First, for those that plan on selling the set this year, doing so now or at least before the end of November would maximize your profits. Assuming the December Effect repeats this year again, as I think it will, you would be losing a significant amount of money by selling then. Second, those who own the set and are not considering selling just yet can probably be sure that they will continue to see the value of their holding grow at a decent pace into the end of 2014, in my opinion.
Recommendation: HOLD/SELL (7/11/2013)
Thanks to those of you who have been reading this series of the LEGO Star Wars BrickIndex Top 20 Performers! If you are just picking up here, here's a small introduction to what I have been writing about.
One of the helpful features of BrickPicker is that it provides the values of LEGO sets from various themes throughout the LEGO world. Another is that BrickPicker does a basic analysis of sets from a certain theme, and finds the Top 20 Performers of that theme, or of all themes. One theme that particularly interests me is LEGO Star Wars. In the following article, I will be making a more in-depth analysis of the Top 20 Performers of LEGO Star Wars in increments of 5. You can read the first entry by clicking here.
6. 8031-1: V-19 Torrent
7. 10175-1: Vader's TIE Advanced
8. 20018-1: BrickMaster AT-AT Walker
9. 8009-1: R2-D2
10. 10179-1: Ultimate Collector's Millennium Falcon

 

6. 8031-1: V-19 Torrent
 This is the first polybag thus far in the Top 20 SW BrickIndex. This set plays a fairly important role throughout the Clone Wars TV show, but to me, does not particularly stand out amongst other vehicles. Prior to the month of February 2013, this set saw stability, mainly slightly above the $7 mark. After the holidays however, it saw a growth in value.If we compare the number of sets sold and the sold price, we see some correlation in between the two charts.

**Please note that the Units Sold has been divided by a factor of 5 in order to better show change.** In particular, pay attention to the region in the red box, which shows a very close relationship between the Units Sold, and the Value Amount. As more are sold, the value increases, because once a unit is sold, the supply goes down, but demand stays more or less the same. This is fairly unique circumstance because usually when the price is higher, there are less sales, in anticipation for a lower price.
 
This is the first set that originates from the Clone Wars. My prediction of why it has done better than many of its “kin” is because of its low cost. The majority of the targeted audience of the Clone Wars TV show is children, in the 5-12 range. Because they do not have high paying jobs, and rely on allowances for gifts, often small things will have to make a substitute for larger things, in this case, the V-19 Torrent polybag serves as a substitute for the larger V-19 Torrent.
7. 10175-1: Vader's TIE Advanced
Vader’s TIE Advanced plays an iconic role in the epic chase between Luke Skywalker, and Darth Vader, which ultimately results in the destruction of the Death Star. Because of the nature of its origination (in the climax of Episode IV: A New Hope), it is one of the most iconic scenes and vehicles of the movie, lesser than very popular ships like the Death Star itself. The build is much stronger than those of regular TIE Fighters more commonly found, with a stronger structure connecting the wings to the main central cockpit.
In the last 6 months, this set has increased in value over $100, up from $255 to $357. This is a prime example of an set that can serve as an investment even several years after its retirement. If this set continues is current trajectory until the holidays, it should be a $350+ set at the start of 2014.
8. 20018-1: BrickMaster AT-AT Walker
The 20018 BrickMaster AT-AT Walker is the second polybag in the Top 20 Performers, and the first promotional item. BrickMaster was a program in which subscribers paid a flat fee of about $40, and then receive “two coupons for use at LEGOshop.com, 6 LEGO models (delivered by mail to your home every other month); 6 issues of the Brickmaster magazine with Bionicle comics; and one coupon for one free admission to LEGOLAND California.” * BrickMaster lasted from November 2007 to June 2011, and included 3 LEGO Star Wars BrickMaster sets, one of whom was 20018 AT-AT Walker. Because of the exclusivity of the availability of the set, and because it is one of the most iconic vehicles in the Star Wars world, it is not a surprise that it is valued so highly. Unlike the V-19 Torrent polybag however, the growth in value doesn’t reflect the quantity sold. It is rather the opposite.


 **Please Note: The units sold has been lowered by a factor of 10 in order to better show change.**

If we focus into the region in the red box, we see nearly mirrored movements, which is usual. Generally when there are more sales, the value is less, due to increased availability.

* Quote from http://voices.yahoo.com/review-lego-brickmaster-club-membership-2457109.html.



9. 8009-1: R2-D2
This is one of the few LEGO Technic and Star Wars sets, and they have generally been strong performers. This particular model is very nice because it has several moving parts, as well as since it stars the universally recognizable R2-D2. Though R2-D2 has never uttered a single word, with his counterpart C3P0 usually translating, he is loved throughout the world. I see very little correlation between the number of sets sold and the value amount, as there is a highly variable amount of sets sold per month. The price of 8009 R2-D2, had largely remained constant around the mid-to-high 30’s, in the 6 months before February 2013. In March 2013, the highest number of new sets were sold at 17. The value of R2-D2 also increased about $7, which is the largest change in value we had seen for several months. It has slowly increased in the last 3 months to rest at a value of $49.00.
Note: I expect the UCS R2-D2 to do similarly in value, at least doubling. Pick those up!!
10. 10179-1: Ultimate Collector's Millennium Falcon
What can be said of this gem of a LEGO set? Only that it is the most valuable LEGO set ever, and is still climbing!! When the 10179 UCS Millennium Falcon was first released, few who wanted it could afford it. Those who could afford it were in for a little treat…
At just a glance, the value of the UCS Millennium Falcon looks to be all over the place, varying in value $500 some months! Do not be fooled! The Falcon is just about as sure an investment as you can get, and as sure a display. What is the key to the set’s success? Well, this is one of the few, few, UCS sets to have more than 2 minifigures. The whole set is minifigure scale, which gives it some edge over other UCS sets that it can accommodate them. Also, this is the largest UCS set ever. In addition, this is the most expensive UCS set, which makes it much harder for many to afford. One thing that does not go for this set is production run. This set ran for three and a half years, which is longer than sets usually last in retailers for. Does this hurt this set as an investment? Sure, maybe 100 investors were able to get a handful more each, but the value of the set does not diminish no matter how many more you might put on the market!
 
 
I know I've seen a few people say a few things about sourcing shipping boxes so I wanted to share that you can get free USPS priority boxes at your Post Office or online. Flat rate boxes are going to be good for really heavy lots (probably over 6-7lb or more) and all the boxes with an "O" in the title followed by a code are just general use Priority boxes. I just found boxes that will fit the Orc Forges I bought allowing for a layer of bubble wrap to go around. Just be aware that, though these boxes are very ridged and crush resistant you are taking some risk sending medium sized sets in boxes like this.
https://store.usps.com/store/browse/subcategory.jsp?categoryId=subcatMSS_PriorityMail&categoryNavIds=catGetMailingShippingSupplies%3AsubcatMSS_PriorityMail
Also I find the moving boxes at Lowes Home Improvement to be large enough to fit larger sets in a pinch and are under $2 a box. You'll need a box cutter to bring the box down to size but this alway keeps me getting packages out on time when I run out of large boxes.
 
Investing, trading, speculating, flipping, gambling, hoarding, whichever “-ing” you decide to label a particular strategy with they all boil down to one thing – making money (well maybe not hoarding!). The handle you attach doesn’t really matter, we don’t need a label to neatly categorize different strategies into compartmentalised silos. Personally I use investing or investment as a catch-all term to encompass any form of buying an asset (Lego in this case) for the intention of resale at a profit. It’s not a label, just a generic term to describe making money. Text books differ on the precise meanings of all those terms I listed before, but it’s not about labels, it’s about strategies.
All strategies have situations in which their application becomes warranted as they are dependent on many circumstances. These include but are not limited to:
A persons appetite for risk The future prediction (in the investors mind) of market prices The amount of capital the investor has available Cashflow restrictions Regional or other geographic price differences Storage space Purchase price vs current Ebay (or other selling market) price Time available for investor research and selling logistics Whims, hunches, gut feelings – personal opinions Different strokes for different folks.
Not all strategies are “optimal” in terms of an economic profit perspective, but most are considered “right” if a rational person has made a reasonably rational decision given the information they had available at the time.
Investing strategies are also not often able to be applied to specific investors. Many investors, myself included, utilise many different strategies depending on the situation at the time of purchase and on which particular set they are buying. Yes there are some investors that have one strategy only and stick to it fairly rigidly, and that may work for them, but the majority of members I see talking about Lego investing on this site employ different tactics.
I have learnt a lot about different strategies from members here, some of which I use and others I don’t. I thought it would be useful to just list all the ones I know of and a brief description and examples of them. Perhaps there are some you don’t know about or have not heard of. A list like this also highlights the many options we as Lego investors have open to us to try and make some money.
TIME BASED STRATEGIES
Short Term - Selling as soon after purchasing (usually at a discount) as possible if the market price is decently higher than the purchase price. Often used for:
Flipping large volumes of sets purchased at a discount Especially for sets that have lower future growth predictions Importing from other markets and selling locally Medium Term – Purchase and hold for 1-2 years.
Hold sets until Christmas or other seasonal spike (e.g. Monster fighters and Halloween) Hold sets currently in retail until a few months after EOL and sell as growth slows Long Term – Hold for 3-5+ years
Waiting until secondary supply has dwindled Squeezes out as much growth as possible RETURN TARGET STRATEGIES Hold Until X% Profit – Wait until market price hits an amount that gives you at least X% returns
Can be Net Profit (after costs) or Gross Profit based Will be different hold times depending on the set, could be instant, or could be years Hold Until $X Price - Wait until market price hits a specific amount.
Buy a set or sets and wait until they hit $X Essentially the same as the one above but sometimes people think more in raw dollar terms than ROI percentages SET BASED STRATEGIES Grinding – taking large volumes of small sets and selling large volumes
Smaller profit margins but repeated many times High selling volume requires good logistical systems Big sets only – Only buying sets over $X or X piece counts
Less sets to track Big set prices means return percentages translate into larger $ amount profits Theme Specialising – Buying from only one or two themes or subthemes
Easy to research and track quickly making the investor a probable expert Or maybe just polybags, or minifigures… PARTING OUT Minifgiure Seperating
Take out the minifigures to sell separately then sell off the rest of the set Takes advantage of discrepancies between market prices and the sum of the market prices for the minifigures plus parts Complete Seperation
Selling all the parts separately like on Bricklink Resource intensive The sum of the parts is greater than the whole USED SETS Whole Sets – Complete used sets purchased
Just like investing in a new set Can utilise any other strategies in conjunction Data is all available on Brickpicker for used sets Bulk Lots – Buying big piles and selling off
Make up the sets they contain and sell them off separately Sell of the parts in lots Can be resource intensive I’m sure there are many more, please list some in the comments if you have any. Strategies may also be a hybrid of the ones I listed, there are many possibilities.
Strategies are also able to be changed or abandoned. If you are waiting for growth that isn’t happening you may want to cut your loses and free up the capital for something else.
“What choo talkin bout Willis?”
I think what I’m trying to put out there in this post is don’t get hung up on the semantics and terminology of what we are doing here. Just appreciate a well thought out and explained strategy for its merits not its label. Plus it’s a basic list of some of the more highly used strategies available for investors to use.
 
This is the first of 4 installments comparing and contrasting sets from the Star Wars Universe from the BrickIndex Top 20 list.
1. 10174-1: Imperial AT-ST
2. 10212-1: Imperial Shuttle
3. 10186-1: General Grievous
4. 10143-1: Death Star II
5. 7255-1: General Grievous Chase
As promised, I am now going to write short paragraphs on the TOP 20 Performing Star Wars sets, in sets of 5.  
 
**Please Note: These percentages are for the month of April. The BrickIndex has not yet been updated to May.**
1. 10174-1: Imperial AT-ST
The 10174 Imperial AT-ST has seen remarkable gains for a set that has been retired for 7 years, appreciating approximately $95 in the last 6 months. Like many Star Wars UCS models, the Imperial AT-ST has appreciate extremely well, just short of triple its original MSRP. The 10174 is by no means a popular set, even if it is part of the UCS line. This was a typical “under-the-radar” set, and still remains today. How fitting that it should have grown the most over the past half-year. With the whole of the Original Trilogy in comparison, this set is a tiny part of a larger world, which leads me to think that it still remains an “under-the-radar” set to this day, and will see similar gains to that of unexpected gainers. Watch this set very closely.
2. 10212-1: Imperial Shuttle
A more recent addition to the Biggest Gainers circle, but it has earned its position. As many of you know, this was one of the most surprising “under-the-radar” sets of recent memory. Prior to its retirement, it was considered to be one of the first mediocre UCS sets, so it was largely disregarded by many investors. Quite contrary however, it is arguably one of the best gainers that retired in late-2012/2013. It will be easy for this set to be worth more than $400 by Christmas.
Though not as iconic as other sets from the Original Trilogy, it still commands a price that is similar to the biggest gainers from the sub-theme.
3. 10186-1: General Grievous
This set is a surprise to the leader-group of LEGO Star Wars. Over the past 4 months, there has been little change in its value, but there was an expected jump in value over the holidays of approximately $40, surpassing the $100 benchmark. This is a very accurate model of General Grievous, in part because it is one of the few LEGO Star Wars and Technic sets, giving it a more memorable look. I would try to pick this one up before the holidays because we will most likely see another jump in value.
4. 10143-1: Death Star II
One of the most iconic sets in the entire Star Wars Universe, and in my opinion, the most iconic in the Original Trilogy, giving it an edge on other sets. Once again, a UCS set, and has appreciated very generously, though it has not appreciated quite as much percentage-wise, it has increased approximately $800 over its initial value. From the month of December to May, it saw an incredible jump in value of about $352, much of that during the 2 months concluding the holiday season. Once again, during that time of year is a great time to sell this set. Does the fact that this set is part of the Original Trilogy have to do anything with its gains? Probably, because it plays a major role in the storyline, and because the Original Trilogy was received much better by audiences, leads me to believe that it may have not done as well if it had not been part of the Original Trilogy. On a sidenote, wouldn't many investors love the Live Star mirror its appreciation? That day is yet to come. Don't give up hope!
5. 7255-1: General Grievous Chase
This is the first non-UCS set in the LEGO Star Wars Top 20 Performer’s list. The chase between Grievous and Obi-Wan Kenobi is one of the most climactic in The Revenge of the Sith, which eventually is followed by the execution of Order 66. Because of its iconic factor, I am surprised that it has not yet been remade, though I think it will soon take remake treatment, as it has been 8 years since the first version was released. This set includes very hard-to-find elements, such as those found in the Boga, or in General Grievous’ Wheel Bike, which uses many elements found in Bionicle/Hero Factory.
I believe that this set was also an under-the-radar set because of its low piece count, and because there were not very many “hoarders” or investors of LEGO’s back in 2005 when it first came out. I think that The Revenge of the Sith movie was the best of those in the Prequel Trilogy, which is why it appreciated more than those from other movies in the Prequel Trilogy such as the Attack of the Clones.
**Well, that just about concludes sets 1-5 of the BrickIndex Top 20. 6-10 to be released!**
 
May 4th is widely known as Star Wars day. On May 4th and 5th, 2013 there was a sale on Lego Star Wars sets in Lego stores and on Lego Shop online. Most of the Star Wars sets were 10% of. But there was one set that has 50% off. That set is the 10227 B-Wing Starfighter. Since the set was 50% off, many people bought the set online and in Lego stores across the country and world. This has a bad effect on the future value of the set.
I heard that many people were buying the set so they could resell it on eBay or something similar to that. This has had a horrible effect on the value of the set. As a result of many people buying this set at $99.99 USD and then selling it, the value of the set decreased dramatically.
In May 2013, there were 300 sales for the B-Wing Starfighter new in the secondary market on eBay. The average price for all these sales is about $120 USD. That is only $20 USD above the price many of the people bought it at. Because of all the sales at low prices, the value of the set dropped dramatically. Here is the value of the set as of June 2013.
10227 B-Wing Starfighter
Current Value
New: $126.50, Down 29.80%. Used: $156.20, Down 6.54%. Current CAGR: -36.75%.
Because of all the sales, the set has been devalued so much, that at the moment, the set would be more valuable if you went to the store, bought the set, and then built it.
Eventually, this effect will ware off. There is one thing we do not know: when this effect will end. The effect may end when the set is EOL. The effect may end at the end of the year. The effect may end next month. We do not know when the effect will end, but it has made a drastic impact in Lego investing in the set.
Hopefully, the set will recover from this Lego investing disaster and regain all the lost value. If this effect does happen again we may know how long it will take for the set to recover.
Thanks for reading!
 
The UCS R2-D2 is one of my favorite sets of all time that I have built. I got this set in April of 2013 and as soon as I came home from the store, I started building it. It was a fun build, but what really suprised me is that there was a variety of colors in the set. It is just not the blue, white, and gray you see on the outside of the set. on the inside there is a vaiety of colors such as yellow, green, and blue. For investing, the set is an UCS set. Usually these sets do well in the secondary market. Here is a good example. The UCS Millennium Falcon. It has a retail price of $499.99 USD. Now it has a value of $2622.00 USD. That is a little above five times the retail price.
Here are some statistics for the set.
The set has a retail price of $179.99 USD. The set has 2,127 pieces. The Price Per Piece (PPP) ratio is about eight cents per piece. In my opinion, that is one the low end of the PPP ratios. Most of the UCS PPP ratios average between ten and fifteen cents per piece. This set is below that by two cents. That is a good bargin if you like the better PPP ratios.
The current value for this set is $170.60 USD new and $147.87 used. This means the PPP ratios are eight cents ($0.08 USD) new and seven cents ($0.07 USD) used. Eventhougth the set has a current CAGR of -5.22%. It will change and hopefully become positive, especially when the set retires.
My recommendation for this set is to buy it. It is a UCS set. Most of the time, after the set retires, the value of the set increases a lot.
 
So, let's take a little further look into the numbers behind the Houston lot. First, I broke down the lot into retired vs. active sets, and small, medium and large sets. For each of these groups, I calculated the % of sets by quantity and % by current BP dollar value. Here are the raw numbers for each category:
Retired vs. Active Sets
Total sets: 282
Total BP value: $17,043
Total retired sets: 98 (35%)
Total active sets: 184 (65%)
BP value of retired sets: $3,840 (23%)
BP value of active sets: $13,203 (77%)
Retired sets ROI: 27%
Active sets ROI: -13%
Small vs. Medium vs. Large Sets
Total small sets: 93 (33%)
Total medium sets: 112 (40%)
Total large sets: 77 (27%)
BP value of small sets: $1,214 (7%)
BP value of medium sets: $5,207 (31%)
BP value of large sets: $10,622 (62%)
Underlying Assumptions
1. I didn't include the DVD in any calculations. There will be value with the Clark Kent fig, but there's no estimate for its value.
2. Four sets were assumed to have a $0 MSRP: 30108 Summer Picnic, 5000023 Essen Germany minifigures, Han Solo polybag and Jor-El polybag.
3. There were a few borderline sets that I considered active: 10227 B-Wing Starfighter, all modulars in the portfolio, 10214 Tower Bridge, 9476 Orc Forge and 3186 Glove World. I listed the following borderline sets as retired: 41017 Squirrel Tree House, 41018 Cat's Playground, 41019 Turtle's Little Oasis, 9469 Gandalf Arrives, 9472 Attack on Weathertop, and 6865 Captain America's Avenging Cycle.
4. Small sets were defined as any less than $25, Medium Sets were between $25 and $80, and Large Sets were defined as any set more than $80.
Analysis
First off, the owner should be given credit for assembling such a massive lot. There are a lot of potential winners in this batch, along with some duds. That said, I split the stats into two groups for a reason: the retired vs. actual discussion should give us an idea of how much potential is left in this portfolio, while set size review should provide a good gauge of how much work is left to divest the portfolio.
I think we have some interesting and relevant statistics to review. First, the retired vs. actual sets show us what we would expect: the retired sets have a positive ROI, while the active sets are currently negative. Yet, I was struck by two things: the relative "youth" of the portfolio (retired sets only comprise 23% of the BP value of the portflolio), and the low ROI of the retired sets. While 27% is nothing to sneeze at, it's much less than the expected return for most Brickpickers. While the retired sets are still relatively young, removing a few key winners further kills these sets' ROI: eliminating only the POTC ships, the Sponge Bob sets, Winter Village sets, and the Jor-El minifigs lowers the retired sets' return from 27% to 10%.
On the flip side, 40% of the active portfolio's MSRP come from the following sets: 10197 Fire Brigade (x4), 10211 Grand Emporium (x4), 10214 Tower Bridge (x3), 10188 Death Star (x3), 10227 B-Wing Starfighter (x6), 6869 Quinjet Aerial Battle (x11), and 10224 Town Hall (x3). With the exception of Quinjet, these are all exclusives and project to be strong performers. This highlights the owner's belief in Lego Exclusives, a confidence shared by many Brickpickers.
Regarding the portfolio's set size, I was struck by how many medium sets there were in comparison to the others - 40% of the entire portfolio have an MSRP between $25 and $80. That's the largest portion of the portfolio, and an interesting purchasing strategy of the owner. I believe there is more variability in the returns of medium sets than either large or small sets, so to me this was a risky choice.
All in all, this is a collection that hasn't really taken off yet, but with the high concentration of modulars/exclusives, appears to have a nice upside.
Note - this attachment has more information than the one included in part one, and has some mistyped information corrected.
 
HoustonLotPricingREVISED.xlsx (52.99KB) : 31
Another short blog post here. After seeing the incredibly large, unused Lego collection posted by JoshTX earlier in the day, I thought I would try to calculate the MSRP and current Brickpicker value to see how good of a deal this actually is.
Let me preface this by saying I hope nothing bad has happened that would force the owner of this portfolio to sell this great collection. I would never wish ill upon a fellow Brickpicker.
Here are the values I came up with:
Total MSRP on all sets: $18,747
Total Brickpicker value of the portfolio: $17,825
If the current owner of this was a savvy picker and only bought items at a discount, here is their cost basis at the following purchase discounts:
10% discount - $16,872
15% discount - $15,935
20% discount - $14,998
At this point in time, $13,500 would be a 10% haircut on the 20% discounted portfolio. While it's definitely a haircut, it's not as big of a haircut as you may think. That said, I still feel for the owner if he's forced to sell this.
As everyone knows, a buyer would be purchasing the future returns of the portfolio, and for the most part, this portfolio will be really start to mature early to mid next year. Here are the potential returns of the portfolio at the given ROI (from MSRP):
10% ROI - $20,622 ($1,875 increase)
20% ROI - $22,496 ($3,749 increase)
50% ROI - $28,121 ($9,374 increase)
I have attached an MS Excel file with the full spreadsheet I put together with the numbers. I will likely do a second short blog entry later tonight when I get a little more time to further breakdown the portfolio.
 
HoustonLotPricing.xlsx (22.63KB)       : 50
Well known towers, skyscrapers, residences, hotels and other famous landmarks. What do all these structures have in common? well, they all form part of their own dedicated LEGO theme: Architecture. A theme with origins going back to the 1960s, that was brought back to life by LEGO at some point in 2008 with the introduction of their very first mini model of a "real world" landmark, the Sears Tower (To be changed not much later to the Willis Tower).
For those of you out there that enjoy architecture as a hobby, or are professional architects, you probably know that it would have been very hard to choose a more popular building than the Sears Tower based on the category of architectural design. One of the most popular buildings in the world in that regard, it is my opinion that TLG chose very well what was the image they wanted to represent with this line of sets, and they took it one step further with the following release of the John Hancock Center, another extremely popular structure coming from a city known especially for its architectural attributes. That is quite a good 1-2 punch in my opinion.
So, after talking a little bit about designs and beautiful buildings, it seems to be pretty clear to who these theme was designed to appeal the most from the beginning: AFOLs. This is not to say that there are no younger fans that enjoy arches, columns, vaults, or just the plain height and curves of an skyscraper, because I am sure there are a lot that do including here in this forum, but that even considering them the large majority of Architecture sets purchasers end up being Adults. There is nothing wrong with that, since there are already a lot of themes dedicated to younger folks, but it makes it a little more special and gives it a feeling of...let's say maturity, to buying what most people out there would only consider toys.
Having said all that, it would probably not come as a surprise to you that most of the time the sets included in this line, especially those that are the smallest, tend to have a Price Per Piece (PPP) ratio that is substantially higher than those sets from other themes. It seems clear that TLG feels that adults will pay a premium for getting a more exclusive looking product that can look great in every office in the country, or home, as a display piece. Even more, to enhance even more this effect, the company decided to include somewhat large instructions booklet with a very nice design that resembles a small book, containing not only the traditional directions, but also several pages of high quality information and images about the structure a particular set is trying to replicate.
To conclude this section, and to go right into the individual set analysis before giving my projections for the overall theme, it is also important to note how much effort the LEGO Group put into making this set look as a completely different thing from the average LEGO theme just by taking a quick look at them. The packaging of the these sets is a nice black and sleek design with large white font letters that make it look as elegant as the structures they represent, and what is even more is the fact that usually, sets in this line do not share shelf space in the traditional LEGO area, but rather have their own black colored stand that makes them stand out and be considered a completely different kind of theme. In my opinion, LEGO did an excellent job differentiating this line from the rest of their portfolio.
In the interest of not extending myself too much more, too late right?, let's do an evaluation of every single set released under this theme and conclude giving you my overall impressions of the theme:
- 21000 Sears Tower

My Analysis: The first Architecture set to be released, the 21000 Sears Towers has already been retired, in theory. In practice, TLG just extended production of this set to reflect the name change to Willis Tower. It is interesting to note, however, that the original model with the old name has appreciated very nicely, especially when considering that you get the exact same thing in the new one. As said before, the Sears/Willis Tower is one of the most architecturally famous buildings in the world, and it is thanks to that that this is poised to be one of the best investments in the whole theme. This older model has already gone over retail pricing over 63 %, and I expect it to continue to rise and a slow pace until the newer Willis Tower retires as well.
- 21001 John Hancock Center



My Analysis: To me, this is the only actual set that LEGO has really retired from the Architecture theme, and it has proven to be an almost instant success shortly after going EOL. This set could still be found a couple of months before the holiday season of last year (2013), and since then it has gone over retail by almost 200%!, that is quite an impressive number. A 69 piece model, this set is currently selling for almost a dollar a piece.
Interesting to not about this set's performance is that, according to Brickpicker's data, it has managed to secure the number 2 spot on the BrickIndex, a list that contains the top performing LEGO sets over the past 6 months, only toppled by The Zombies. It is this fact that surprises me when I take a look at forum discussions and see a lot of discussion regarding The Zombies appreciation, while forgetting that this little set has performed just as well.
If this set maintains its current trend it will reach around $ 70 by next year. However, I do expect its CAGR to lower a little bit as the post EOL spike recedes, and maybe stabilize around 20 % or so, still a pretty good return.
- 21005 Fallingwater

My Analysis: One of the biggest and more detailed Architecture sets, this one makes for an impressive model once completed. Since the Fallingwater is currently in production, the negative numbers you see on the table above should not influence your decision on purchasing this set as an investment or not. Especially important to mention this when you see that this model is currently in the Top 25 Amazon Best Sellers, making it the highest placed set of the entire theme in the US!
Value Prediction: I don't see this set performing as well as the JHC in percentage terms, just because of its larger size and price, that will probably be unattractive to some of the same people that decided to jump and get the JHC since it was more affordable, and continues to be even after EOL. I would say that this set will price around $ 130 about 6 to 12 months after retirement but keep increasing from that figure steadily and into the high 100s in a couple of years.
- 21002 Empire State Building

My Analysis: If there is a set ready to replicate the success of the JHC, this is it. The Empire State Building is surely one of the most easily recognizable skyscrapers around the world, and despite not being the tallest, its design still amazes and interests people every single day. Around the same piece count as the JHC, The Empire State Buildings currently sits at # 74 in Amazon's 100 Best Sellers (LEGO), making it the third most popular set of the theme after Fallingwater and The White House, when using this list as a proxy for popularity.
Value Prediction: Look for this set to follow the footsteps of the JHC. It will quickly appreciate in value after going EOL and reach close to the same $ 60 a few months after. This is one landmark everyone wants to have, and don't be surprised if it actually surpasses the Hancock on the appreciation department.
- 21003 Seattle Space Needle

My Analysis: Another highly recognizable US landmark with a relatively low piece count and a nice low price. This set is currently another one on the Amazon Best Sellers Top 100 (LEGO), allowing us to make the assumption that it is one of the most popular LEGO sets out there. To me, one of the better builds on the whole theme (Mostly Technic), and paired with its extremely good design and display value make it one of the best choices out there for the Architecture investor.
Value Prediction: Again, based on sheer popularity, this set should break the $ 50 mark not long after retirement, probably in less than a year.
- 21004 Solomon Guggenheim Museum

My Analysis: A great looking model that makes justice to the original building. One of the most interesting designs for a museum worldwide, this particular set seems to be highly popular in Europe. Present in some of the Top 100 Amazon best sellers list (LEGO) in the old continent, the museum will probably have a larger appeal than the average Architecture set outside the US, giving investors willing to ship internationally an even better customer base. A little high on the price per piece department, even for Architecture sets, is one of this set's disadvantages.
Value Prediction: Not sure how much the high price per piece may influence the appreciation of this set after retirement, but if I had to guess I will say that the impact will be at least considerable. The popularity of this set abroad will probably help, but I don't see this set doubling in value in less than a year like most of the small sets in the theme. I would say around $ 65 within a year.
- 21006 The White House

My Analysis: Arguably the most well known building in the entire world, and one of the most popular as well. The White House LEGO model is as accurate as it can be while still made of LEGO bricks, with its nice design and the very cool looking tress and lawn surrounding it, making it a perfect display piece in any room or office.
The set is currently in place # 36 in the US Amazon Best Sellers (LEGO) list. and places in some of the other countries' lists, most notably in Spain #5 amd Canada #59). Even though these lists constantly change, this set shows up pretty consistently.
Value Prediction: One of the most safe investments in the whole theme, the iconic nature and significance of the building around the world will propel this set to what I believe to be one of the highest returns on investment of the whole Architecture theme. I expect this set to double in value within a year and a half after retirement and continue climbing until it matures probably around $ 150.
- 21011 Brandenburg Gate

My Analysis: Another icon in world history priced fairly when considering only raw number of pieces and not weight. Midsized, and as all models of the line, very accurate to the real thing. I won't say that this is necessarily a bad thing, but I was really surprised that this set is not in any of the Amazon Best Sellers' lists, not even in Germany. It has a somewhat low activity level on eBay as well, so I am tempted to say that there is the possibility for this set to be one of those highly sought after "sleeper" sets.
Value Prediction: The Brandenburg Gate represents a big part of the world's history in the years of WWII, but especially Europe's history and struggle during that time. I am not really convinced that this set is not going to be a popular one after retirement just because of the apparent bad signals of the current market, but rather expect it to become a hit in the future with its price going up with the help of what I think will be lower supply. You will probably see this set reach $ 55 a year after going EOL.
- 21007 Rockefeller Center

My Analysis: Another popular structure, but with a similar PPP problem as with the Guggenheim museum. This is by far not one of my favorite Architecture models. It is still a very accurate piece, just not one I am crazy about owning either for building or investing. The building is popular mostly here in the US, but it is just overshadowed by several other more prominent ones like the Empire State, Willis Tower, etc.
Value Prediction: In my opinion, this set will appreciate after EOL but not by as much or as fast as some of the other models we have discussed above. I actually think that the building's popularity is not as high as to creating a spike in value after retirement, but rather a slow increase over the years after. I see it going to $ 55 max. a year after it disappears from stores.
- 21010 Robie House

My Analysis: The largest of the models in the Architecture theme, this set is sure to be a winner after going EOL. The amount of pieces guarantees a lot of the small details that make the difference between a good set and a great one. Plus, you get a large number of the new dark red color that is not found in many sets, let alone in the quantity included here.
Value Prediction: The fact that this set has a PPP close to sets like the UCS Imperial Shuttle and other large sets, while only giving you thousands of mainly small pieces may serve as a deterrent or at least a speed bump in the way towards price appreciation. Still, a set of this size and detail will probably perform well in the secondary market, and I see it hitting $ 235 within the year.
- 21000 Willis Tower

My Analysis: this model is just a continuation of the 21000-1 Sears Tower release to reflect the name change the real building went through a couple of years ago. Nothing else worth mentioning that I didn't say on that model's analysis.
Value Prediction: Expect this set to follow the same path of the original 21000-1 and appreciate very well after retirement. What's more, the performance of these two equal sets will probably follow that of the John Hancock Center once there is no more Willis Tower on the market. I think that the original Sears Tower LEGO will get to the $ 60 range a lot faster than this one, since it has already been "retired", but the Willis variation will probably be close to that same number just a couple of months after it is discontinued, maybe just a couple of dollars cheaper.
- 21009 Farnsworth House

My Analysis: A really interesting and good looking model, this is definitely one of my favorites despite it not being one of the most well known structures of the line. The detail is amazing, the white plates make the set look very nice and as if it were only one big plate, plus the detailing inside of the house with the small brick used to replicate seating areas and the kitchen is just amazing looking. One of the best models of the whole theme, in my opinion.
Value Prediction: despite not being one of the most easily recognizable structures, especially outside the US or other than real architecture fans, this set will perform just because of its unique design and detailing. I see it going above $ 80 within a year after retirement.
- 21008 Burj Khalifa

My Analysis: This is my least favorite model of the Architecture line, and apparently a number of other LEGO fans around the world agree with me, based on the reviews and ratings on LEGO S@H. There are two main things that bother me about this model, one being that despite having more than 200 pieces, more than 50% of those are the round 1x1 brick. It just makes the build more repetitive than any of the other models of the line. The other problem, and a more important one, is that the model itself is very unstable, since moving the set or the slightest touch can start to make the round bricks fall apart. The model looks accurate, but these two things are issues I really don't want to deal with.
Value Prediction: I would think that the instability issue and the lack of variety on the pieces department will cause buyers to think they are not getting a lot of value for their money with this set. In my opinion, this will under perform the rest of the theme, but still increase in value to around $ 32 or $ 33 by the end of its first year of retirement.
- 21012 Sidney Opera House

My Analysis: This is the only case in the whole Architecture theme I feel the need to say the model does not replicate the real thing in the best way possible. The model looks blocky and is not as high quality as the majority of the other designs. A sad thing really, considering that the Sidney Opera House is another of those structures that is extremely easy to recognize by almost anyone in the world. I just think that LEGO could have done a better job with this one.
Value Prediction: Despite my doubts about this set, the reviews in LEGO S@H are mostly good ones, so I would assume that it is a popular set. Even more, the structure in which it is based is one of the most popular in the world, and that will more than likely help its performance after going EOL. If the buyers have a better view of this set than I do, as it seems is the case, I will say that it will probably follow the most popular models in this theme and get close to doubling in value in a little more than a year to a year and a half.
- 21013 Big Ben

My Analysis: As LEGO says, this is the most famous clock tower in the entire world. What's more, the model is really nice looking and detailed for the amount of pieces and is one of the few Architecture sets that has consistently been selling for above retail even while still in production. Another positive aspect is the fact that it was one of the most popular sets of the line in the month of December, selling close to 190 sets during that month alone!
Value Prediction: Famous landmark, great design, this set will definitely go over $ 50 a short time after being retired.
- 21014 Villa Savoye

My Analysis: If we use eBay activity as a proxy for popularity of LEGO sets, this is easily one of the least popular of the Architecture line, since from January to March, only 5 new copies of this model have been sold on the auction site. This is particularly impressive since I think this is one of the best looking models of the whole line, and a very different type of build than the other ones. Important to note is that, even though in the US this set does not have that much activity, it is present in several of the European Amazon Best Sellers Top 100 lists. So, it would seem very clear that the popularity of this set right now is very high in Europe, while not that much here in the US.
To me, this is a good thing, and makes me feel sure that this will be one of those "sleeper" sets I was talking about before. One can probably assume that the domestic market buyers want to get all the most well known landmarks/buildings first before getting to the Savoye, but there may be a point when it is too late to do and they will have to source them from the secondary market.
Value Prediction: One of the best candidates for the sleeper set nomination, this one may very well get to $ 100 or more a couple of months after its first year in retirement.
- 21016 Sungnyemun

My Analysis: Only the second landmark/structure from the Asian continent, this set has been on the retiring soon list of LEGO for a couple of weeks now, and it is practically retired at this point. One of the better looking sets, the Sungnyemun has already started to go up in value, and will probably continue to do so over the next couple of weeks.
Value Prediction: The set is currently experience the EOL price bump, and has reached a CAGR of close to 20 % in a very short period of time. Expect this trend to continue for the rest of this year.
- 21017 Imperial Hotel

My Analysis: This set was just released a little over a month ago. Besides being the second largest set of the Architecture theme, there is not really enough information at this point to go into more detail.
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If you have made it this far, congratulations. We have travelled all over the world analyzing each and every one of the current Architecture themed sets along with me giving you a small appreciation of where I expect each set to be shortly after retirement. Let's try now to wrap things up.
I would like to give you a short summary about the strengths and weaknesses I perceive this particular theme has, before going into a short conclusion about where I think the theme as a whole will be going.
Strengths:
AFOL oriented theme Recreations of important buildings and landmarks Very detailed designs Several different sizes and price points Inclusion of informative booklets in each set Great display pieces Highly collectable Weaknesses:
Higher priced than the average LEGO set Some models are not as well known or popular as others Longer production runs that the average LEGO theme (so far) So as you can see, from my point of view this theme is a very solid investment choice that, other than a few disadvantages, offers some great potential for the future. Will this theme rise as high as some of the skyscrapers it has replicated? I would most definitely say yes.
Thanks for reading.
 
Will box damage reduce the value of my sets when it is time to sell them?
We have all asked ourselves this question at some point, and it is actually seen on the forums relatively often, so I think it is time to evaluate a little more in depth how much does box condition really matter for the LEGO investor once it is time to get rid of some of those sets we have stored in our closets (or whole rooms, if you are lucky).
There are very different types of damage to consider, ranging from the typical small creased corner, passing through the 2cm puncture, to the the run of the mill completely trashed box. It has been my personal experience that most of these does not really matter much when it comes the time to sell the sets, mostly due to the fact that the large majority of people who buy LEGO in the secondary market do so to build them instead of as an investment, and as a result most of them have absolutely no use for an empty box. However, I will take a more objective approach in this article and find actual examples of sets sold over the past two months on eBay with different levels of box damage and try to compare to the same sets in MISB condition. This comparison will really give us a pretty good idea about how justified are the worries of some investors regarding the condition of their boxes.
Let's see some examples and compare the prices each auction ended up selling for against each other as well as Brickpicker's Price Guide (New). Again, this are all SOLD listings.
Example 1: Quidditch Match 4737 (BIN)


Example 2: Ninjago Ultra Sonic Raider 9449 (Auction Style)


Example 3: Dino 5888 Ocean Interceptor (BIN) 6 copies, same damage.


Example 4: Heartlake Vet 3188 (BIN) 5 sold sets


Example 5: B-Wing 10227 (Auction Style)


So far, this have all been relatively cheap or even still available in stores, let's see some examples of more expensive retired sets.
Example 6: Boeing 787 Dreamliner 10177 (BIN)


Example 7: Grand Carousel 10196 (BIN) The seller did not have a picture of the damage, but in his description he notes: "Box had other boxes stored on top and the set box is mashed in on the top and one corner. The damage is not all that bad but if you are looking for a pristine box then do not buy this one."

*There is one sold listing for around $1,700 included in the mean. Example 8: Cafe Corner 10182 (Auction Style)


Apparently, there is now way for me to go back more than 60 days of my own sold listings so I won't be able to actually place the pictures in here of my own personal damaged box sales, but I can at least tell you about some of them
Example 9: Hogwarts Express 4841 (BIN) Completely trashed box, dented, crushed, creases everywhere.

Example 10: Imperial Shuttle 10212 (BIN) This one was way back when the price was hovering around $ 320 (Feb-Mar). Sold two in a week, one MISB one damaged for the exact same price. (Price guide value from Mar 13)

Now that you have seen first hand the real impact box damage has on the value of your sets, I would like to leave you with some comments.
First of all, it is very important you take into consideration that most of the time a set with box damage will end up being significantly cheaper for you as an investor than one that is MISB. For example, on the recent Amazon Haunted House and AA sale a few weeks back several members, including myself, received boxes in bad shape. I can't tell you what some of the others did, but I did contact Amazon who suggested sending me a replacement for the set at the same price, or that I kept the set for a discount that ended up being $ 36, bringing the set down to around $ 100!. This is not something uncommon when dealing with Amazon, as most of the time they prefer to discount a significant percentage of the price instead of going over all the hassle and cost that involves getting a set back from a customer and issuing a replacement. This is not unique to Amazon, however, as you will probably get the same treatment by customer oriented sellers with great reputations on eBay and even with some of the other major retailers.
Another thing that you have to consider relates to when you actually decide to sell the damaged box set. If you are listing on eBay you are better served by making very obvious that your item comes damaged both in the title and in the description. This is one of those cases were you don't want to downplay the level of damage your box presents in hopes of getting more money, as the buyer could very well ask for a refund/discount or even file a SNAD (Significantly Not As Described) case, in which case the probabilities of you losing both the set and the money are relatively high.
So, when selling sets with damaged packaging I suggest including something to the effects of *DAMAGED BOX* in the title and then once again in the description with a more detailed explanation. Of course, you also need to add several images showing every single crease or imperfection, for those buyers who just don't like to read the descriptions. Even then, you might get some complaints, but that is true of pretty much every listing. If you are really worried about this though, you can even message the buyer before shipping to confirm he knows he is getting a "damaged" item.
Finally, when selling these type of product (I would say always, even) use the Buy It Now format. By listing the price you want, as long as it is realistic, you will pretty much secure exactly the amount you are expecting. The special problem with listing damaged boxes in auction format is that you don't know if the buyer you are looking for will come during the 7 days your item will be listed for sale. With BIN you will have plenty of time to get a buyer who is not really interested in the box at all to purchase your item. If you want to see cases in which box condition does seem to have an impact, it will almost always be in auction style listings.
Those are the three major factors to consider when investing in damaged boxes. As with anything, there are pros and cons, but I consider that in this case the benefits (discounts on price / higher profits) outweigh the costs (more time listing / somewhat higher risk).
One last thing I would like to mention relates to highly collectable items, like a 1st Edition 10179 or similar sets. In those rare cases you are in fact better served to secure a MISB set in order to maximize your profits when it comes to sell it. Having said that, there are really not that many sets that would fall into this category.
I hope I have put some of your concerns to rest when it comes to holding onto those damaged boxes. As you could see yourself, most of the time the impact they have on your profits is negligible and certainly well less than what you usually get in the form of discounts when originally purchased.
Thanks for reading.
*Whether your item sells or not will also depend on your feedback and listing terms. I know this is pretty obvious, but wanted to include this note just in case.
 
When I was a kid, I remember my younger brother wanted to be involved in everything I was. When I got a bike for my birthday, he wanted one. If I went to summer camp, he wanted to go, too. If I was hanging out with my buddies, he was tagging along behind us. As I’ve grown older and seen my kids behave similarly, I have come to understand that’s the nature of siblings. The younger ones look up to and emulate their elder siblings.
In the wonderful world of Lego, the older brother is growing up: Ninjago, the explosively popular theme that debuted in 2012 is set to return in 2014 after a brief hiatus. Lego originally announced that holiday 2012 would be the final Ninjago release before retirement, allowing little brother, Legends of Chima, to claim the spotlight. Yet, late last year, Lego announced on a message board that Ninjago would be rereleased in 2014, elbowing little brother Chima to the back of a crowded pre-teen market segment.
Ninjago’s runaway success was based upon appealing, detailed sets being marketed better than any theme before. Lego’s primary marketing vehicle was the smash television series: Ninjago: Masters of Spinjitsu. Ninjago took Cartoon Network by storm, and by its final second season episode amassed a domestic viewership of almost 3.5 million, good for the highest rating on US cable television in its time slot. The Ninjago product line also included the hot-selling “Spinners”, a supplemental game within the theme that pit Ninja minifigs in simulated combat against their skeleton foes. In two short years, Ninjago went from four ninjas training in a dojo to one of Lego’s top three selling themes.
Sometime during Ninjago’s ascent, Lego decided to shelve after a three year run in accordance with their typical theme strategy. To fill the void left by the wildly popular Ninjago, Lego created Legends of Chima, a theme built around a society of sentient, anthropomorphized animals that quest for Chi, the “life-source” of these advanced creatures. It appears the Chima theme has been in the works for a while, and will utilize a similar product line and marketing strategy to Ninjago that includes kid-appealing animal characters, a television show, and another ancillary “game” that utilizes single wheeled zip-cars called Speedorz. The first wave of Chima sets was released in early 2013, with a plan to ramp up with a second release of sets and the television show in mid-2013.
With Chima poised to become Lego’s lead offering to the pre-teen market segment, Lego decided to change tack by reintroducing the recently retired Ninjago theme at the beginning of 2014. While Ninjago fans rejoiced, this created some uncertainty for the Chima theme. The obvious, major concern was that a new Ninjago release could cannibalize Chima’s nascent sales, and possibly kill the theme all together. However, with the few dribbles of 2014 Ninjago information coming out, it appears there may be room for both Chima and Ninjago. The first rumor to emerge is that Ninjago’s new release will ditch the snake villains for an enemy that elevates the Ninjago conflict to more mature viewers: evil robots. As evidenced in the poster released by Lego shown below, the introspective, oddball ninja Zane may discover the source of his social discomfort: it appears he may actually be a robot!
 

The poster also shows some type of robot in the shadow of Zane’s mechanized ocular orb, perhaps a reflection of the future struggle for Zane, or a robotic enemy that awaits the Spinjitsu masters.
Needless to say, adding robots points to more complex storylines and more mature and nuanced characters. Think of the Terminator series, or the Borg from Star Trek The Next Generation. Both have very frightening Armageddon-type storylines with villains that show little human emotion or qualities. With this turn, Ninjago will begin to encroach on science fiction that typically appeals to an older demographic. The departure from a historical context to a science fiction platform allows Ninjago to follow their core fan group that are growing out of the younger, pre-teen market segment. Ninjago’s changes also create a void in one of Lego’s target market segments that I expect Legends of Chima to fill. Our Chi-loving animal friends should fit the demographic gap vacated by Ninjago quite nicely and allow Lego to dominate both of these crucial market segments and bridge the gap to teen and adult themes like Lord of the Rings/The Hobbit.
What effect will this new market segmentation have on investors’ strategies for these themes? For one, retired Ninjago sets should continue to be profitable, and will likely get a boost with new episodes airing sometime in 2014. Any investors with Epic Dragon Battle, Fire Temple, and Destiny’s Bounty sets must consider stashing a few of these away for another year in anticipation of the Ninjago buzz coming in 2014. The new Ninjago release should open up new investment options in a year as well. Per BrickShow News, the Hungarian Blog Kockamania http://www.kockamania.hu/ claims to know the new Ninjago set names, and have leaked them as follows:
LEGO 70720 -- Air Breaks (Hover Hunter)
LEGO 70721 -- Kai fighter (Fighter Kai)
LEGO 70722 -- OverBorg attack (OverBorg Attack)
LEGO 70723 -- Thunder offensive (Thunder Raider)
LEGO 70724 -- NinjaCopter (NinjaCopter)
LEGO 70725 -- Nindroid mechanical dragon (Nindroid MechDragon)
LEGO 70726 -- Destroyers (Destructoid)
Investors will be drooling over the release of 70725 Nindroid MechDragon that appears to extend the phenomenally performing Ninjago dragon line, and with Ninjago sets typically increasing in size within the theme’s number sequence, the dragon appears to be one of the larger sets of the theme.
As for Chima, Ninjago’s reentry into the Lego catalog still could stunt its popularity as a theme despite Ninjago’s older market segment. The good news for Chima is that it has another seven months to launch the television show, and to introduce a newer, stronger wave of sets that includes the dramatic 70010 Lion Chi Temple and the gritty 70014 Croc Swamp Hideout, both anchor sets of rival tribes. On the downside, Ninjago could still steal some of the 5-9 year old demographic from Chima even if Ninjago is geared toward a more mature audience. As we all know, little brothers still like to tread on the heels of their older brethren. I believe the creativity of the Chima sets, the release of the new anchor sets, and the television show launch still portends popularity for Chima, but its upside may be capped from Ninjago. For those that believe the Ninjago move foretold Lego’s dissatisfaction with the performance of Chima, TLG is still firmly behind Chima, as evidenced by its recent announcement of a new Chima themed area of the water park in Orlando, aptly titled “World of Chima”.
From a performance standpoint, I think Chima theme returns may mirror the Pirates of the Caribbean theme: strong at the low and high price points, but weak among the mid-level sets. Here are the performance graphs of the two PoTC set releases:
First release:

Second release:

These sets are shown in order of size, from largest to smallest piece count. As you can see, both graphs have the shape of an inverted bell curve with the best performing sets on the ends of the size spectrum and the worst performing sets in the middle. If the Chima television show is a success, I believe returns on Chima sets will follow this pattern as well, so look for small sets like Razcal’s Chi Raider and large sets like Cragger’s Command Ship and Lion Chi Temple to perform well, while medium sized sets like Laval’s Royal Fighter, Lenox’s Lion Attack and Eris’ Eagle Interceptor to languish. There’s one caveat to this: if the television show highlights a certain set and makes it iconic, it could very well become the next Ice Dragon.
Only time will tell whether Chima will be a hit on the secondary market, while the established and popular Ninjago theme continues its secondary market gains. As always, retail market popularity will drive secondary market demand, so if the television show continues the popularity of the first three episodes, Chima will have sets that perform well after retirement. While little brothers are usually tag alongs when they’re young, if they learn from their older brethren they can mature into great people. The same holds true for Chima – don’t let this theme pass you by.
 
I recently went to an unofficial LEGO convention called World War Brick 2013. It took place at the Brickmania headquarters in Minneapolis, Minnesota on June 28th-30th.
They had a whole slew of military related displays that were either built by Brickmania, the Twin Cities LEGO Train Club, the Greater Midwest Lego® Train Club, and the weekend pass holders who brought their own personal displays.
They had three groups of people.
Staff. Those people were vendors who were selling items or were employees of Brickmania. 100 Weekend pass holders who paid $50 or $60 to display MOCs, get a goodie bag, and attend exclusive activities. (My dad and I fall into this category.) The general public during the public hours of the event. I attended several presentations about many LEGO-related items including minifigure customization, waterslide decal application, and a Brickarms presentation. (Will unveiled a prototype weapon.) They were dozens of huge displays and a huge mosaic of the Flag Raising on Iwo Jima.
Below are some various pictures from the event.
A huge dinosaur rises out of the water on a train display.
A huge castle tower.
A lighthouse.
A picture of "Germany, April 1945."
The 3739: Blacksmith Shop designed by Daniel Siskind.
Some prototype village sets including the Blacksmith Shop.
Some pictures below are from World War Brick's website. Link: http://worldwarbrick.com/ World War Brick's Goody Bag. It had an event exclusive Jeep, WWB T-Shirt, exclusive Brickarms, and a cool bag. Other items were included as well.

Rumrunner’s Micro Battlefield Game. I didn't get a chance to play it, but I heard it was a lot of fun!

Awesome MOC on display.

Various pictures from the Battle of Peleliu Landing display. (My personal photos for this display needed to be resized so I decided to use some professional pictures from Brickmania's blog. Link: http://brickmaniatoys.com/2013/07/03/brickmania-models-photographed-by-doug-heimstead/ (Photos by Doug Heimstead.)

Below are some of my photos of this display. You can barely see the edge of the water at the very top and it shows how big this display truly is.
During Will's Brickarms presentation he unveiled a new Brickarms called the BrickArms M2HB .50 Caliber machine gun. (I talked to Will and he was a very nice guy.) It is in the early production stages. Below is a photo of it.

Raffle tickets were given out for participating in various activities. One teen won 4 times at the closing raffle! Link to the 2 photos below: http://www.flickr.com/photos/toomuchdew/with/9187763905/

The Iwo Jima mosaic was my favorite activity of the event. Here is a description of it from WWB's website.
My Dad and I ended up completing 5 baseplates so I got 2 U.S. Marines and 3 U.S. Ranger minifigures. It took about an hour and a half complete each baseplate. I'm proud to say I helped complete such an iconic mosaic!
Picture of the owner of Brickmania on the left, (Dan Siskind is a very nice and down to earth guy in the black shirt.), and a Brickmania employee on the right who planned and coordinated the display,(His name is Landon and he was very helpful during the waterslide decal application workshop. Thank you!), in front of the mosaic. It really shows how big it really is!

Lastly here are some pictures of some items I either got in my Goody Bag or I purchased. (I have some duplicate items from my Dad's goody bag.) Minifigures I got for helping with the mosaic.
Brickmania M4 Sherman I bought. Well worth every penny.
A Brickmania M1A1 75MM pack howitzer.
A Brickmania heavy mortar.
My entire WW2 LEGO collection after World War Brick. I have 13 minifigures, a 7622: Race for the Stolen Treasure, a Brickmania M18 Hellcat, a Brickmania M4 Sherman, two exclusive WWB jeeps with canopies, a Brickmania heavy mortar, and a Brickmania M1A1 75MM Pack Howitzer.
Some of the Brickarms I bought.
Overall my WWB experience was awesome! I got to participate in activities, meet with lots of awesome people including Dan, Will, and Landon, help complete a huge mosaic, buy some cool Brickmania sets and some Brickarms, and see some awesome displays. It was a very fun experience!
The following quote is from http://worldwarbrick.com/.
I plan on going again next year.
Thanks for reading this blog post and I hope you liked it! I plan on writing a LEGO Customs article and I also plan on reviewing my Brickmania kits so stay tuned!
If you want to view more photos of this event please visit the following websites.
http://worldwarbrick.com/ http://brickmaniatoys.com/ http://brickmania.com/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/toomuchdew/with/9187763905/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/95492142@N00/  
 
   
   
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Guest
Tommorow, I will be headed off to the beautiful land of Asia with my family (visiting some relatives). It will be my first time headed to Asia, and I thought I could take advantage of the trip to give Brickpickers an inside look at one of TLG's emerging markets.
As some of you may or may not know, Lego said in a recent press release that it is planning to build a factory in Jiaxing, China, to support the Asian market, which saw sales in recent years grow by around 50% annually. The factory will feed only the Asian market, and is expected to be completed by 2017. Currenty, Lego sold in Asia is not exclusively made there.
I will be travelling to Japan and then Hong Kong, and along the way record my findings in regards to how the price compares, what the locals think of the product, the precense of our beloved brick in Asia, and a look at some of the clone brands that are fighting for the Asian market. One of these clone brands, which now sells select sets at non-Asian locations, is known as Nanoblock. I have two Nanoblock sets, both of them Japanese sets that were given to me earlier. I thought given the surprisingly refreshing nature of the products that they deserved a little review here.
Nanablock is a relatively young Japanese company, focusing on desktop models (also know as "executive toys") built with extremely tiny, lego-style blocks. The models are very small, with the company's landmark series sets fitting on 20x20 "nano-stud" plate that is about the same size as a regular lego 8x8 plate. The company's tagline "the smaller the block, the better the detail", appears to be true to its name upon first site of a set; while the builds are made up of what we would call "basic bricks", they achieve a detailed, sophisticated appeal. The quality of the bricks is quite good, and I have yet to see a single defect or cause any damage to them, which is a common occurence with other clone brands. Most Nanoblock pieces are blocks about the height of a Lego plate (or a third of a Lego brick). During this little tour through a refreshing change to complete copycat clone brands, I will be looking at my experiences with the Nanoblock sets, NBH_018 Himeji Castle and NBH_221 Great Buddha of Kamakura.
 

Himeji Castle (NBH_018)

Great Buddha of Kamakura (NBH_021)
As shown by the pictures, the sets are far from what most would consider a direct copy of Lego, more of a homage to the brick in tiny form. Construction of Nanoblock sets is level based, meaning the instructions provided a bird's-eye view of the set and construction is mainly just made up of stacking the bricks (although the Buddha does feature some SNOT work). While in Lego sets, stacking bricks on top of eachother is often considered a boring and easy task, the miniscule size of the blocks makes construction a challenging, and sometimes frustrating, event. Both sets are depictions of real-life Japanese landmarks, and are surprisingly accurate to their source material while maintaining their novelty item vibe. The two sets I recieved contain over 200 pieces each, along with a generous supply of extra pieces.
The sets are small, and make excellent desktop/office displays as they are very detailed. Thanks to the fact that the Nanoblock creators did not try to directly copy Lego (in fact, the bottom of their bricks resemble early versions of Lego rather than current ones as there are no recessed studs), but rather branch off the concept, I would say the series in my eyes is the only Lego clone brand that really works. Their pixelated and modern-art style models are not only a joy to display, but are also refreshing to build. Due to these reasons, and the fact that the company has scored a deal with Toys R Us and is clearly on the rise, I think this will be one of the few clone brands that will weather the storm as Lego ups its precense in Asia. In addition to their Landmark series, the company also offers several different themes; animals, seasonal, and large-scale models.
The Nanoblock models are beautiful and are an encouraging sign as I head to Japan. Stay tuned for more in the coming days...
 
Just a quick blog entry today. This morning there was a post in the forum discussing this, but since I already wrote the blog entry last night, I figured I would release it anyway...
For all you Star Wars enthusiasts, check out this website that chronicles one man's journey to build a UCS AT-AT that is minifigure scale:
http://gimmelego.blogspot.com/2013/07/ucs-at-at-they-think-its-all-over.html
Here's a picture of this behemoth!

Some stats on this MOC:
Piece count - approximately 6,250
Piece cost - estimated $375-$600
Assuming TLC could produce this set cheaper, but with the licensing fees tacked on, I would estimate that TLC would have to market this at about $600. This price and piece count would really fuel demand as it would immediately become the largest and most expensive Lego set ever built.
That said, there are a few reasons TLC would never release this:
1. It's MUCH too fragile. Reading the blog gives you an appreciation for how weak this is.
2. I don't think Lego will crack the $500 MSRP mark with a model in the near future.
3. Logistically, this would be a BEAST to box and ship.
4. The box alone would require some significant reinforcing given the amount of large bricks that appear to make up the model.
I still think this is an amazing structure, and the designer should be given serious credit for the amazing design, and the author should be given credit for its construction. Please visit the website for further information about this model.
 
When choosing between the Clone Wars, the Prequel Trilogy, and the Original Trilogy, most LEGO investors turn to the Original Trilogy, because of its superior storyline, and overall quality. In second place usually comes the Prequel Trilogy, with its somewhat muddy storyline, but still above average quality, in my opinion. Finally dead last, comes the Clone Wars. Though it is difficult to compare an animated TV show with a full-blown movie, it is clear that it is the lackluster of the three.
Does this translate into investment potential and growth, or is it simply an investor’s misreading?
By looking at the BrickIndex of Star Wars, we can see the Top 20 Performing LEGO sets in the Star Wars theme:
1. 10174-1: Imperial AT-ST
2. 10212-1: Imperial Shuttle
3. 10186-1: General Grievous
4. 10143-1: Death Star II
5. 7255-1: General Grievous Chase
6. 8031-1: V-19 Torrent
7. 10175-1: Vader's TIE Advanced
8. 20018-1: BrickMaster AT-AT Walker
9. 8009-1: R2-D2
10. 10179-1: Ultimate Collector's Millennium Falcon
11. 8083-1: Rebel Trooper Battle Pack
12. 6209-1: Slave I
13. 7153-1: Jango Fett's Slave I
14. 4483-1: AT-AT
15. 7143-1: Jedi Starfighter
16. 8129-1: AT-AT Walker
17. 8036-1: Separatist Shuttle
18. 10129-1: Rebel Snowspeeder
19. 10030-1: Imperial Star Destroyer
20. 4500-1: Rebel Snowspeeder
*To see the BrickIndex Star Wars page click here.*
Of the Top 20 Performers, 2 originate from the Clone Wars, 2 from the Prequel Trilogy, and the remaining 16 from the Original Trilogy. By a stunning majority, there are more LEGO Star Wars sets from the Original Trilogy than from any other aspect of the Star Wars Universe, including the Extended Universe, which did not rank in the Top 20.
Now, I am not saying that there are no winners in the Clone Wars, the Prequel Trilogy, or Extended Universe, but rather pointing out that the strongest performers have repeatedly originated from the Original Trilogy, which I take to be a sign that it is the strongest “sub-theme” of LEGO Star Wars, from an investor’s standpoint.
**Please Note**: In the near future, I will be doing more in depth analysis of the Top 20 in increments of 5.
 
This new blog category will be the place where I post about those CUUSOO projects that I personally like the most. I know that there is a specific thread like this already in the forums, and TOK does a great job summarizing some of the best ideas, but I wanted to make this a more personal and regular type of thing. With the new blog system, I think it is the best place to do it!
The Legend of Zelda is my all time favorite video game series, so it made sense for me to pick the CUUSOO project scheduled for review as my first entry of this section. Some of you may remember that not long ago the first Zelda based project that was considered by LEGO was in fact rejected, with the argument that multiple new molds for new pieces would need to be produced for this set alone.
Ragaru's Zelda project was designed after the rejection of the previous one, and according to the creator works mostly if not completely with parts and colors that LEGO has currently in production, so hopefully this won't be the reason for yet another rejection in the review stage. Other than that, I think the appeal and fan base of the series is proven already, and in my opinion would be an extremely successful model that would probably cause at least the same initial reception that Minecraft got when first released. The Zelda series has been around for way longer than Minecraft and has several different games on several different Nintendo platforms, as well as books, comics, etc. so I really think the customer base is there for LEGO to justify this set's production.
The set itself is pretty cool, and is closely related to the most realistic looking game of the series, Twilight Princess. Even though it may look like just a bunch of ruins and some foliage, it really manages to capture the feel of some of the dungeons and locations of the video game series, and the inclusion of some iconic enemies like the Deku Baba and the Stalfos further make this set an accurate, but small, representation of what the Zelda series is.
As far as the minifig is concerned, there would only be one included: Link. There is no way to produce this set and not include him, so LEGO would need to figure out a way to make him look as accurate as possible, as his inclusion is what really will be carrying this set in the market. He would include a couple of iconic items that in my opinion are not that hard for LEGO to have in the set. A common bow, a lamp, a sticker for the Hylian shield and the Master Sword would be more than enough for me to be satisfied as far as items is concerned. Epona (horse) would in theory be included as well, but to me that is not particularly essential if we need to choose among that or some other elements.
Like the creator of the project says I am really disappointed that a couple of other iconic minifigs had to be excluded, but if it helps this first set pass the review stage and be produced, I think that LEGO will experience first hand what kind of a popular theme this is and would eventually produce a couple other small sets like they are more than likely doing with Minecraft now. To me, a potential Zelda mini-theme would be pure gold!
We will have to wait and see how this project turns out in the review, but I have really high hopes it will go through. I'll leave you with some images of Ragaru's work:



Thanks for reading!
 
As many of you know, I have been a LEGO Star Wars believer, through and through. Though I have added on some new beliefs such as SpongeBob and Hero Factory, I never was convinced by the Lord of the Rings LEGO theme. Sure, I did realize that there would be some winners such as the Battle of Helm's Deep or Orc Forge, but this was partially because this was the common concensus with other investors. To further explain why, let's bring you back a couple of years.
My older brother and I had just walked out of a book store, he with a Foxtrot comic book, and myself with a Sherman's Lagoon comic book. Back then, we were huge comics fans. Not the Marvel and DC comics. Nope, we were fans of the comics you saw in the newspaper, in particular, the Chicago Tribune. While flipping through the Foxtrot comic book, we came across a series of comics about none other than Lord of the Rings:
Now as you might have read, these comics were quite ridiculous for a person who had never seen nor read the Lord of the Rings. Never the less, it had me curious, but this curiosity never too me over until years later... Exactly 3 days ago.
I had put off watching as well as reading the Lord of the Rings because just by reading the comics, it had scared me into becoming a nerd who ate onion rings to save Middle Earth. I was also slightly creeped out by this "Orlando Bloom" figure (weird at this point, after I have figured out who Orlando Bloom is), because Paige Fox was absolutely obsessed with every single boy at her school, and sometimes, here judgement was...clouded.
However, after turning to LEGO investing, my interest was rekindled after learning about words that meant nothing to me, like "Helm's Deep" or "Moria". 3 days ago, while looking for a movie to watch from RedBox, I came across the Hobbit. As you know, the Hobbit is not in one of the LoTR trilogy movies, but it was the beginning of a 2 hour epic journey, searching public library after public library, and finally assembling none other than all the of the LoTR movies. Finally, we accumulated all of the movies in the LoTR trilogy as well as the Hobbit and sat down and began.
I was thoroughly prepared to be bored beyond comparison by the Hobbit as well as all 3 of the LoTR movies, as they were all nearly 3 hours. Rather fortunately, I was incorrect, and enjoyed the Hobbit. Slowly, everything began to fall into place, starting with the 79003 An Unexpected Gathering and 79010 The Goblin King Battle.
By the end of the movie, I was positively exhilerated by the action that had gone on in the movie, as well as the mysteries that were not yet fully unravelled.
At this point, you must be wondering what the point of this article is. For starters, I am providing you with a different perspective of how your targeted consumer might think: how and why they might try to steer clear of LoTR.
It is my theory that the potential behind LEGO Lord of the Rings as well as the Hobbit are somewhat stunted because of the common misconception that they are "nerd's movies". Perhaps these people may eventually watch it for the stunning amount of Academy awards it has taken, many of the "cool kids" of pop culture disregard the movies because of their sterotype.
Please don't get me wrong, I do think that the Lord of the Rings and the Hobbit LEGO themes will succeed much more than the current Star Wars sets, but the maximum potential in the theme has not yet been acheived, and is still growing. With every new movie on Tolkien's books that is made, hundreds or perhaps thousands are converted to the LEGO theme and movie, and further boost its investment potential, both in individual sets as well as as a theme as a whole. Now by converted, I do not mean into a cult or a new religion believing that there is a magical ring that can only be harnessed by Sauron, and only by him, and not even a legendary onion ring that can be consumed and destroyed for good. What I mean is that I am now convinced that the LEGO theme, books and movies have been, are, and will be successes.
Sure there will be some mediocre sets and maybe a loser or two, but it is nothing that we haven't seen and nothing that should take a seasoned investor by surprise.
Thanks for reading!
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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