The LEGO Star Wars Fall Wave: Same Old Song and Dance? Part 2

In part 1 of this set, we examined the 5 smaller new Star Wars sets to look at their pros an cons and, most of all, their future investment potential. In the second part, I will be examining the larger sets in a little bit more detail. We all know that the larger Star Wars sets may not always be big gainers, but usually offer the most potential for a theme that has so many smaller sets. 3 of these are remakes, so we should have some good past data to pull from.

AT-TE 75019

From the Lego website:

Win the Battle of Geonosis™ with the AT-TE™!

As the Battle of Geonosis™ rages on, the clone commander boards the heavily armored LEGO® Star Wars™ AT-TE™ with Jedi Masters Mace Windu and Coleman Trebor. Take them deep into the battle with the AT-TE’s lifting handle and cool poseable legs. Open the cockpit to put a minifigure behind the wheel, then fire the 2 moving laser cannons and rotating top-mounted projectile cannon with dual flick missiles! Lift the top hatch for extra flick missiles! Climb the access ladder through the opening rear hatch to reach the cargo box with thermal detonators. Lead every LEGO Star Wars battle with this ultra-tough space tank. Includes 5 minifigures with weapons: Battle Droid™, Battle Droid Commander, Mace Windu, Coleman Trebor and a clone commander.

• Includes 5 minifigures with weapons: Battle Droid™, Battle Droid Commander, Mace Windu, Coleman Trebor and a clone commander
• Features lifting handle, poseable legs, opening cockpit with space for a minifigure, moving front and rear laser cannons, rotating top-mounted projectile cannon with dual flick missiles, opening top hatch with extra flick missiles, and opening rear with access ladder and cargo box with thermal detonators
• Weapons include 2 Lightsabers, 2 blasters and a blaster rifle
• Take aim with the laser cannons
• Load the projectile cannon and fire the flick missiles!
• Activate the thermal detonators
• Build awesome battle scenes from Star Wars™: Episode II Attack of the Clones
• Recreate an even bigger Battle of Geonosis™ with 75015 Corporate Alliance Droid™, 75016 Homing Spider Droid™ and 75021 Republic Gunship™
• Measures over 8" (22cm) high, 16" (43cm) long and 11" (29cm) wide

My Analysis: This is a re-re-make, something that has happened a few times if you count different sized sets, but hasn't happened very much with 3 sets made almost exactly the same size. We will look at this in a minute, but for now, let's look at this set as if it's something completely new.

The set is pretty impressive and we all know that the AT-XX machines are very popular and have done well in the past. It has 5 minifigures. 3 are no-name army-building minifigures in the Battle droid, the battle droid commander, and the clone commander. The Mace Windu figure is a little better as it is an exclusive redesign. Mace is a pretty popular Star Wars character so the redesign will definitely help the value of the set later on. Colemon Trebor is a new minifigure which is exclusive to this set. He starred in episode 2 when he and Mace Windu were trying to rescue Amidala, Anikan, and Obi-Wan. He unfortunately died at the hands of Jango Fett, but did have enough of a role that he is a recognizable character to anyone who is a fan of the movie. His inclusion in this set definitely brings up the sets value.

Another stable in these Genosis themed sets have been flick missiles and this one doesn't disappoint with two of theme. It also has thermal detonators and thermal detonators. The missiles and lasers all rotate around, the legs move, and there is a cockpit that opens for a minifigure to drive the ship. There is also a back access into the vehicle with a ladder. This set clearly offers a lot of playability.

So how does it really differ from the old sets?

4482 Had only 4 minifigures and they were all clone troopers. There was really nothing special about the minifigures in the original. The AT-TE itself was obviously a little older looking. It did have an opening for the minfigures to fit inside on the top and the firing cannons did turn around, but there were no flick missiles and no back opening with a ladder. The set was 648 pieces with a $.11 price per piece retailing at $69.99.

7675 was released 5 years later in 2008. It has 6 minifigures. It has the rotating cannons as well as two missiles that actually fire as well. You can open the hatches to see extra seats inside the unit and ir also has the cockpit like the new one. Honestly the set doesn't look tremendously different from the new one as far as the AT-TE is concerned. None of the minifigures were exclusive or redesign exclusives, so the new set does have a slight advantage there. The redone set includes 798 pieces and was also $.11 per piece. It included a STAP as well which this set does not have.

The newest AT-TE design includes 794 pieces and is also $.11 a piece. Honestly, I would say it is probably right on par with the original. If I had to give the edge to one, I will always go with the newer as Lego has proved they consistently improve sets as years pass. I might have to build both to know for sure (a great excuse to do so).

My Investment Analysis: I think there are a couple of things that go into this. To find the possible value, we should look at the old AT-TE sets, and any other Star Wars sets that have had 3 comparable remakes. First up, the original and its redesign:

4482 – 11.29% CAGR, 10 years old, Current price $204 or 191.5% Return over retail.
7675 – 17.83% CAGR, 5 years old, Current price $204.39 or 131% Return over retail.

Looking at these two, they are pretty similar. I think that in 5 more years, 7675 will most likely be sitting right where 4482 is now with around 11% CAGR and almost a 200% return over retail. SO this data looks good for us.

But, how have triple similar remakes done?

X-wing – 7140 in 1999, 7142 in 2002, and 4502 in 2004.

How did 4502 do? - 12.39% CAGR and current price of $143 which is 186% return over retail in 9 years.

Actually, the X-wing had a fourth similar set, being 6212 in 2006. That was where the set fell off with just a CAGR of 1%.

Millennium Falcon – 7190 in 2000, 4504 in 2004, and 7778 in 2009

This one is a reach because two of the sets had close to 1000 pieces and the last had less, but it still was a comparable re-remake.

7778 – 16.34% CAGR, current price of $73.25 at 83% over retail value in 4 years.

Slave 1 - 7153 in 2002, 6209 in 2006, and 8097 in 2010.

This one I think offers really good data since it is a more recent tri-make.

8097 – 13.51% CAGR, current price $117 at 46% over retail in 3 years.

So what does this tell us? Well, it shows steady growth despite 3 iterations, provided there is improvement in the set. Since this current AT-TE has not had a new one in 5 years and has new minifigures as well as the one exclusive, I think it can be hypothesized that it will follow in the footsteps of the two originals combined with the data for the other re-remakes. This would put it right around 15% CAGR after 5 years. This would put it's five year value at $181 exactly, or 101% return over retail.

In summary, a solid set to keep an eye on and pick up as a long term investment.

Jabba's Sail Barge 75020

From the Lego Website:

Help Princess Leia and R2-D2 escape from Jabba’s Sail Barge™!
Princess Leia and R2-D2 are secretly plotting their escape from Jabba’s Sail Barge™ prison. Help them to sneak past the guards, Weequay and Ree-Yees, while Jabba the Hutt gets distracted by musician Max Rebo! Find a way to slip through the opening side windows of the floating Sail Barge, then get past its hidden pirate cannon, deck cannon and 2 flick missiles! This essential LEGO® Star Wars™ set features wheels, fold-down sides, removable deck, jail, kitchen and Jabba’s throne. Includes Jabba the Hutt, R2-D2 and 4 minifigures with weapons: Princess Leia in slave outfit, Max Rebo, Weequay and Ree-Yees.

• Includes Jabba the Hutt, R2-D2 and 4 minifigures with weapons: Princess Leia in slave outfit, Max Rebo, Weequay and Ree-Yees
• Features hidden pirate cannon, deck cannon with 2 flick missiles, opening side windows, wheels, fold-down sides and removable deck for easy access to the jail, kitchen and Jabba’s cabin
• Weapons include an axe and a blaster
• Move Jabba’s Sail Barge™ with rolling undercarriage wheels
• Find the hidden pirate cannon
• Arm the deck cannons and fire the flick missiles!
• Remove the deck to play inside
• Recreate this iconic scene from Star Wars™: Episode VI Return of the Jedi
• Measures over 8" (22cm) high, 16" (43cm) long and 8" (22cm) wide

My Analysis: Unfortunately, the first thing I see when I look at this set is over-priced. I saw this set inside TRU and I wasn't that impressed from the look of the box for it to have a retail price tag of $120. It's $.14 per piece, which usually means some really large pieces or a lot of minfigures, but even with the 5 minfigures plus Jabba, I don't see anything special to make it that much. For now, we are judging it on its own merit and not as a remake.

On the plus side, the set has a lot of cool nuances with it: It is on wheels so it moves easily, the sides fold down and the deck is removable. It has a Jail and a kitchen which are cool play-ability add-ons. It also has, you guessed it: flick missiles as well. There is also a hidden pirate cannon inside it. The R2D2 looks interesting as it is a slight redesign of the serving version in the first one. The Jabba figure is the same as in the Palace set current out (9516), but he is still pretty impressive with a moving head and body. The Leia is a nice plus as it is a slave redesign and looks a lot like the outfit from the movie.

The last three minifigures are the important ones here as they are all exclusive to this set and really well done. For those of us who like collecting the more obscure Star Wars characters, this is a big plus for the set. These include Ree-Yees, a three eye'd onlooker, Weequay, a guard type character with a very mean gruff look, and my favorite Max Reebo which is the small blue elephant looking character. He is the leader of the Max Rebo band in the movie that works for Jabba. I think he will be the most sought after minifigure from this set as he is very memorable and a nice change of pace from the guards and troopers in other Star Wars sets.

How does this set compare to the original? The original minfigures are a little more memorable with R2D2 and Slave Leia being the same, but including Luke, Han Solo, Lando Calrissian, Bobba Fett, and a Gammorean Guard. On the other hand, if this one included all these minfigures, it wouldn't have really set it apart form the original, so I think the new exclusive minifigures were the right move for TLG.

The original was a much better deal at $.10 per piece with just 70 less pieces. It also included the skiff and the Sarlacc where as now you have to buy those separately. This definitely hurts the set. On the other hand, the new set is much more updated being 7 years newer and has a lot more playability and detail to it. The Jabba figure is much better as well. If I had to lean one way, I would say the new set is better, but only if you get it for $100. I think at $120, the set is just too over priced.

My Investment Analysis: We all know this is an iconic part of Star Wars and we know that this set will be popular because of it. So looking past that, I feel like there are two major pieces of data we can look at to see if this set will be a good investment: 1. How did the first Sail barge do? 2. How do similar remakes do?

First off, the original Sail Barge:

6210 Jabba's Sail Barge: 22.93% CAGR, current price of $319.13 for 325% return over retail after 7 years.

So what does this tell us? It will gain. This new one is better and has some new minifigures. But will it be as good? I doubt it. This is for several reasons. The biggest is the price. The higher the retail price, the less over retail it can gain. Because this set is about $20 over priced, the returns will suffer because they are calculated looking at the real retail price. So let's do a little bit of math.

If $100 is the right price for this set, and $120 is overpriced, then using ratios, the original set's overpriced retail price would be $95.99. If we look at it's gain from there recalculated, it would be 18.3% CAGR as reversing the CAGR formula we have (319/96)^(1/7)-1. So, if we think the new set will match the old one, we would expect 18.3% CAGR after 7 years, which is still pretty acceptable.

So how about the re-make angle of it? Using data I compiled from my set review on Jabba's Palace, we saw that in 2 out of the three cases I sited, the second iteration did better than the original. The only other was the clone tank which suffered a bit from being too similar. If we look at the data I compiled for the AT-TE, the 2^nd iteration of the X-Wing and the Millennium falcon, the second iteration also did well though they were remade. What does this tell us? That if the set is good enough, being remade wont be a huge factor in whether it is a winner or not.

So final verdict? Well, I think this set is still going to suffer from two things that will hurt it in its case to match the original. The price and the fact that the original had the skiff in it. I think the set will still do very well as all of these Jabba sets go together, but I would safely predict about 15% CAGR using the $120 retail price tag. This is still a good gainer and those factors could actually work in the sets favor if it doesn't get targeted and becomes a sleeper. At 15% CAGR, that would put this set at $241.24 in 5 years.

The X-Factor would be if it is not heavily discounted, but you manage to get it at somewhere around $90. If the set is heavily discounted, it will sell too much and hurt the secondary market profits. However, as it currently sits, some people will walk away at that price, especially investors. If you find some intricate ways to get it down to $90, you are going to definitely make money.

In summary, for the right price, it will be a solid investment. Either way, you have to have one to build!

Republic Gunship 75021

From the Lego website:

Rescue the heroes with the LEGO® Star Wars™ Republic Gunship™!
Race to Geonosis™ in the awesome LEGO® Star Wars™ Republic Gunship™ to rescue Obi-Wan Kenobi, Anakin Skywalker and Padmé Amidala before they’re overpowered by 2 Super Battle Droids™! Aim the 4 ball gun turrets with minifigure cockpit, then open the front compartment to grab the flick missiles and restock the 8 top-mounted launchers! Open the side and rear doors to deploy the swoop bike! Use the lifting handle for easier flying-action role-play! Includes 7 minifigures with weapons: Obi-Wan Kenobi, Anakin Skywalker, Padmé Amidala, Clone Trooper™ Captain, Clone Trooper and 2 Super Battle Droids.

• Includes 7 minifigures with weapons: Obi-Wan Kenobi, Anakin Skywalker, Padmé Amidala, Clone Trooper™ Captain, Clone Trooper and 2 Super Battle Droids™
• Features 4 ball gun turrets with space for minifigures, flick missiles, 8 top-mounted flick missile launchers, side and rear doors, swoop bike and a lifting handle
• Weapons include 2 Lightsabers, blaster pistol, blaster and a blaster rifle
• Aim the turrets and fire
• Restock the flick missile launchers!
• Open the cockpits and put the minifigures inside
• Recreate awesome battle scenes from Star Wars™: Episode II Attack of the Clones
• Build an even bigger Battle of Geonosis™ with 75015 Corporate Alliance Droid™, 75016 Homing Spider Droid™ and 75019 AT-TE™
• Measures over 7" (20cm) high, 18" (48cm) long and 16" (43cm) wide

My Analysis: Now here is a set that looks like it's worth $120! I love the minifigure cockpits on this ship. It adds tons of playability. Plus you get 8 flick missile launchers! Child's dream; parent nightmare. The set itself looks really impressive and is right at $.10 per piece. I saw this one in TRU($150...) and it looked soooo much more impressive than the other new Star Wars sets that were next to it on the shelf.

As for the minifigures, we get a plethora of them. The Anakin Skywalker is an episode 2 redesign as well as is the Obi-Wan minifig. You also get Amidala in Geonosis attire. It also comes with two super battle droids which are one of my favorite droids and it's rare to get two of the better did figures in the same set. You also get a clone trooper captain and a clone trooper pilot. Though I really like all the minifigures in this set, I think it hurts it that there are no real exclusive minifigures. On the other hand, one of the new Geonosis sets had to include all the core characters, and of all of these, I don't really see an undesirable minifigure int he set. Most people are going to be buying this set for the ship itself anyway.

So how does this set compare to the original? The original was actually slightly overpriced. It had only 693 pieces and 7 minifigures and was priced at $90. In this set, for only 30 dollars more, you get almost 500 more pieces! I think that is really going to factor into the value of this set later on. The newer set also looks a lot more sleek and stylish as well. The original set's minifigures didn't include any core characters – 4 clone troopers, a clone commander, and a “jedi knight” so that is a plus for the new set. On the other hand, the old set had a Droideka which, to me, is a pretty desirable minifigure. Overall, I would say the piece count is going to make this newer set the better set. This is a big ship in the movie – only fitting we get a big ship as a Lego set.

My Investment Analysis: We have talked about remakes and how well they do already. I will spare you more analysis here. We will just agree that the set itself has more effect on the value then whether it has been made before. What becomes important is how popular this ship is, and how well the last comparable set did. The results are below:

7163 – 693 pieces. 8.93% CAGR. Current price of $225 for 150% return on retail over 11 years
4490 – 102 pieces. 9.34% CAGR. Current price of 17.07 for 185% return over retail over 10 years

I think this definitely establishes that the ship is fairly popular and desired. 7163's CAGR is not amazing, but it has been around for 11 years and was still fairly successful looking at its return over retail. Looking at this new set, I think it should be able to match the set because of the large piece count for a relatively better value, the impressiveness of the set, and the better minifigures. I don't think it will be an amazing gainer, but I think it could match 15 CAGR after 5 years (This would most likely make it like 7163 being at 9% CAGR after 10 years). At 15% CAGR, in 5 years this set would be worth $241.36, or a 101% return over retail.

Two things to be aware of. First, I see way more value in this set that Jabba's Sail Bridge at the same price. This is definitely important to remember when comparing investments. Secondly, I would say this set has a lot of sleeper potential. I would definitely keep track of how popular this set is while it is available. I think it could get a little over shadowed by the Jabba set because of how well the last Sail barge did. If it does, it may really surprise people!

Ewok Village 10236

From the Lego website:

Recreate classic scenes at the Ewok Village!
Travel to Endor™ and visit the treetop home of the Ewoks. Just like in Star Wars™: Episode VI Return of the Jedi, this recreation of the Ewoks’ forest dwelling is packed with cool functions, including the tree-trunk hideout, secret Lightsaber stash, spider web, net traps, slide, catapults and an elevating throne. Use the rammer function to take out the Scout Trooper’s speeder − just like in the movie! Realistic details include rope walkways, vine and leaf elements, kitchen, food storage area, bedroom and a planning room. The Ewok Village set is the perfect addition to your LEGO® Star Wars collection. Includes R2-D2™and 16 minifigures with weapons: Luke Skywalker™, Princess Leia™, Han Solo™, Chewbacca™, C-3PO™, 2 Rebel soldiers, 5 Ewoks™ (including Wicket™, Teebo™, Chief Chirpa™ and Logray™), 2 Scout Troopers and 2 Stormtroopers™

• Includes R2-D2™ and 16 minifigures: Luke Skywalker™, Princess Leia™, Han Solo™, Chewbacca™, C-3PO™, 2 Rebel soldiers, 5 Ewoks™, 2 Scout™ Troopers™ and 2 Stormtroopers™
• Features tree-trunk hideout and secret Lightsaber stash, spider web and net traps, slide, catapults, elevating throne, speeder rammer function, kitchen, food storage area, bedroom and a planning room
• Speeder also included
• Weapons include a Lightsaber, 3 blaster pistols, 2 blasters, 2 blaster rifles, 2 spears, bow and a crossbow
• Also includes 2 staffs
• Collect hard-to-find Endor Princess Leia, C-3PO, Luke, Han Solo and Wicket Ewok minifigures!
• Fend off the advancing Imperial forces
• Amaze the Ewoks with the elevating throne!
• Avoid the spider web and net traps!
• Destroy the speeder with the rammer function!
• Take refuge in the tree-trunk hideout
• Shoot down the slide and join the battle
• Fire rocks at the enemy with the catapults!
• Measures over 1" (35cm) high, 21" (55cm) wide and 13" (35cm) deep

My Analysis: Wow! I can't even imagine someone could say something negative about this set. It just looks incredible from all the pictures I have seen of it. It really captures the feel of the Ewok's village from Return of the Jedi. I love the wooden bridge between the two sections of trees as well as the rope ladders that lead up to the trees. It also comes with a speeder bike, spider webs and net traps which add a lot of play-ability. On top of it all, you get a whole set of Ewok weapons!

This really follows in the footsteps of the Death Star 10188 as a giant playset. Normally, larger sets are collector's editions and aren't really geared towards children as much. However, the Death Star broke that mold and this one is right there with it. 16 minifigures! Get someone this for Christmas and their birthday! They wont need another Lego set for a long time.

The Ewok Warrior and Teebo the Ewok are exclusive minifigures with the rest of the Ewoks only appearing in the other two Ewok attack sets. You also get a shiny gold redesigned C3PO that is only in one other set. The Ewoks have really only been featured in two sets before this, so this is an area of Star Wars that has been fairly untapped. I think the Ewoks are a character that really resonate with casual Star Wars fans. My wife saw this set and her mouth dropped. She wants it as much as I do!

So any downsides? Well, it is a little pricey at $250, although that really hasn't stopped the Death Star from selling. I think the set itself is worth it because it is so impressive and unique, but it may stop a few people from buying it. Also, it isn't a deemed UCS set, which means it may not sound quite as collectible to people. Other than that, I can't see a whole lot wrong with it at all. I can't think of a lot of other ways they could have made it better.

My Investment Analysis: So this is the hard part. How do we even come close to predicting what this set is going to do? Well I am going to take a crack at it.

First, let's take a look at the Ewok line:

7139 Ewok Attack – 8.27% CAGR. Current price $31.13 for 140% return over retail in 11 years.
7956 Ewok Attack – -5.26% CAGR – Just recently retired

The original Ewok Attack showed solid gain for a battle pack type set. The newer one was just recently retired, but has held its value fairly well and has gained for the last few months. It had a relatively high retail price as well. Either way, there is definitely some interest here, and like I said, a limited number of sets.

As far as Endor, we don't have a lot of retired Endor sets to compare it to, but 8038 The Battle of Endor is one that is slightly comparable on a lower level. It has seen a modest 5.67% CAGR, although it was just retired a few years ago.

Honestly, there just is not a whole lot out there to compare this set to. It is a Lego Exclusive and really it is usually pretty hard to go wrong with those. I think the higher retail price could actually help it in the end because it may not be targeted near as much when there are things like the Tower Bridge 10214 and Haunted House 10228 that are less expensive.

In the end though, I think I would be really surprised if this set doesn't see UCS type value. I would love to compare it to a UCS set, but most of those retired sets are giant ships and this is completely different. Really the best thing to compare it to is 10188, which as I am sure most of you know, is not retired yet. The uniqueness of this set is something that this theme severely needs and I think this set brings it. If I had to put my finger on it, I would expect that we could see 20% CAGR after the first 5 years which would put the set at $622.08. But I think it has tons of positive and negative gaining potential. Wait and see is hard sometimes!

Remember, this is only a pre-pre-pre-prediction. There are a lot of things that could effect this set's value. If it sees a limited run, it could sky-rocket. If it stays forever like the Death Star has, it could be really damaging. I would definitely wait awhile and try to get a good deal ($200 seems about right) before I jumped on it. But honestly, with it being a Lego exclusive, I don't see a whole lot of sales coming for it. This, in the end, may be the best thing for those of us who decide to put it away until one day it brings the Star Wars Lego Theme back to the prominence it deserves.

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.