The LEGO Star Wars Fall Wave: Same Old Song and Dance? Part 1

For any of us who are into Lego investing, we know that the phrase "Lego has brand new Star Wars sets!" is not really deserving of the exclamation point. In fact, according to current BrickPicker data, there have been 346 Star Wars sets as of the writing of this article. Saying these sets have been "mass produced" is a little bit of an understatement. Yes, in the past, it seemed that just buying a Star Wars set meant solid returns. Now, this is not true anymore with all of the remakes and clone sets from the original, the lack of new movies in the series, and the mass producing Lego has seemed to do with this theme. The theme CAGR has even fallen under the mean CAGR for a Lego theme of 11.26%. It is hovering around 9%.

Does this mean that Lego Star Wars is not a good investment anymore? Of course not! It just means we have to be much more careful about what we consider a good investment in the theme. So this is part 1 of my look at the fall sets in the Star Wars line and if any of them will be big winners, or if they will continue the trend of tapering off as a solid investment.

Note: For this, I am doing 5 sets in part 1 and 4 sets in part 2. The sets are done from smallest to largest.

Mandalorian Speeder 75022

From the Lego website:

Attack with Darth Maul in the Mandalorian™ Speeder!
Get to the rendezvous point in the LEGO® Star Wars™ Mandalorian™ Speeder with the treacherous Sith Lord Darth Maul minifigure with mechanical legs. Plot the Mandalorian takeover and take on anyone who gets in your way with hidden flick missiles, rear weapon storage and elevating cannon! Then, face off in minifigure combat with his legendary Darksaber! Includes 3 minifigures with weapons: Clone Wars Darth Maul and 2 Mandalorian Super Commandos.
• Includes 3 minifigures with weapons: Darth Maul and 2 Mandalorian™ Super Commandos
• Features hidden flick missiles under the hood, rear weapon storage and elevating gun
• Weapons include a Lightsaber, Darksaber and 2 blasters
• Collect Darth Maul with mechanical Clone Wars legs
• Unleash the hidden flick missiles!
• Elevate the gun and aim to fire!
• Battle with the legendary Darksaber
• Relive the excitement of Star Wars™: The Clone Wars animated TV series
• Measures over 3" (8cm) high, 7" (19cm) long and 4" (12cm) wide

My Analysis: This is a cool little set at just over $.10 a piece. It is from the clone wars series, so it was never featured in the movies. It includes two identical Clone Wars Commandos which are redesigns and look pretty cool. I think the helmets they are wearing are pretty cool too being full-faced.

What this set really has going for it is the Darth Maul with the cybernetic legs. If you haven't followed the series, after Darth Maul was cut in half in the end of Episode 1, he fell into the melting pit. The story goes that he was found 10 years later with cybernetic, spider-like legs as he had lost his lower half. He evidently favors two light-sabers now instead of the dual one he came to be known with. He is exclusive to this set, so I think that will make this set really have a decent amount of value. There are a lot of Darth Maul fans and I think they will want this little set because of him.

In regards to playability, the ship can seat two characters and it has hidden flick missiles. One of the light-sabers is the legendary Dark-saber as well, adding to the uniqueness of the set. How well have sets including an exclusive or first run of a redesigned Darth Maul done?

3340 Minifigure pack – 20.71% CAGR 13 years old
7663 Sith Infiltrator – 8.33% CAGR 6 years old
7961 Sith Infiltrator - -8.74% CAGR 2 years old

The values for this set are all over the place, although we can possibly throw out 7961 because it was overpriced at $.15 per piece and, though retired, has still been fairly easy to find. I think this Darth Maul will be better just because he is so different from all the other redesigns. My Prediction is a healthy 10% CAGR after 5 years. This would put the set at $40.24 at that time. Not record breaking, but healthy growth.

My Investment Suggestion: Just look to score the Darth Maul by either getting the set cheap and parting it out, or buying it separately. It is the only big thing going for this set. The figure could be worth $30 in a few years if there isn't another set including him with cybernetic legs.

Corporate Alliance Tank Droid 75015

From the Lego website:

Battle the LEGO® Star Wars™ Corporate Alliance Tank Droid™!
Build the great Battle of Geonosis™ where the Separatist forces are advancing on the Jedi Knights and their clone army with the LEGO® Star Wars™ Corporate Alliance Tank Droid™! Help the Clone Troopers™ to repel the Droid’s crushing track tire and 2 flick missiles! Then fend off the Battle Droid™ and infamous bounty hunter Jango Fett. Includes 3 minifigures with weapons: Clone Trooper, Jango Fett and a Battle Droid.
• Includes 3 minifigures: Clone Trooper™, Jango Fett and a Battle Droid
• Features large track tire and 2 flick missiles
• Weapons include 2 blaster pistols, blaster and a blaster rifle
• Fire the flick missiles!
• Navigate any terrain and crush your enemy with the rugged track tire!
• Recreate awesome battle scenes from Star Wars™: Episode II Attack of the Clones!
• Recreate an even bigger Battle of Geonosis with 75016 Homing Spider Droid™, 75019 AT-TE™ and 75021 Republic Gunship™!
• Measures over 4" (11cm) high, 7" (18cm) long and 3" (9cm) wide

My Analysis: This one is a little hard to figure out. Yes, Lego has been doing a lot of Star Wars clones, but this set was just released 4 years ago. The original just had two clone tropers and two droids while this one comes with 1 of each and a Jango Fett. The ship does look a little updated and better detailed and it does include flick missiles this time. The set has better value as well, with the old set having 219 pieces at $24.99 and this one having 279 and only being $19.99. $.07 price per piece is pretty hard to find for Star Wars sets.

Either way, the first set has really done nothing in the aftermarket at all as a fairly no-name non-iconic ship and there is really nothing here to make us think this one will be any different. I think it will probably be worth building, especially because you are getting quite a deal compared to other Star Wars sets in price per piece. Jango Fett is an exclusive redesign, but I don't think it is anything to get too excited about.

My Investment Suggestion: The original Alliance Tank Droid 7748 didn't even breach 2% CAGR. Though I like the set and will probably have one to build, I would stay away from it as an investment unless you find it on clearance for less than $10. It might be worth keeping an eye on Jango Fett, since he has only been in a few more expensive sets and this is a re-design, but I see nothing here to really be excited about. Nice set, but an investment nobody.

Homing Spider Droid 75016

From the Lego website:

Take on the Homing Spider Droid™ in the Battle of Geonosis!
As the Battle of Geonosis™ rages on, Jedi Master Stass Allie and a Clone Trooper™ spot a deadly LEGO® Star Wars™ Homing Spider Droid™ in the distance. Overpower the droid before it attacks with its articulated legs, rotating head, elevating lower gun and top-mounted flick missile! Then, take on 2 Super Battle Droids™! Includes 4 minifigures with weapons: Stass Allie, Clone Trooper and 2 Super Battle Droids.
• Includes 4 minifigures with weapons: Stass Allie, Clone Trooper and 2 Super Battle Droids™
• Features articulated legs, rotating head, elevating lower gun and top-mounted flick missile
• Weapons include a Lightsaber and a blaster rifle
• Move the legs, rotate the head and fire the flick missile!
• Use Stass Allie’s Jedi powers to stop the attack!
• Recreate awesome battle scenes from Star Wars™: Episode II Attack of the Clones
• Build an even bigger Battle of Geonosis with 75015 Corporate Alliance Droid™, 75019 AT-TE™ and 75021 Republic Gunship™!
• Measures over 7" (20cm) high, 10" (26cm) long and 7" (19cm) wide

My Analysis: This set is really intriguing to me. In general, we have learned from past Star Wars sets that the weirder, less prominent, but unique ships from the Star Wars movies and the Clone Wars series have done relatively well. The AT-OT, AT-TE, and the Clone Turbo Tank come to mind. The set itself looks really interesting with the large Spider droid that can move its lower gun around, rotate its head, and of course, has a flick missile. It's almost exactly $.10 per piece which is always pretty good for a Star Wars set.

On top of this, it has a new (really, absolutely new!) minifigure in Stass Allie who served as a Jedi general during the clone wars series. Though maybe not a household name, an exclusive minifigure always helps. I think it helps as well that she is female as the Star Wars line really lacks female presence past the Queens and Princesses. I would say it is possible she will be in newer sets though, so this will be more of a “Wait and see”.

This is a remake, so it is hard to say what effect that will have as it really isn't a whole lot different from the old set, 7681 The Separatist Spider Droid. It does have a few more pieces for the same price, but one less minifigure. It doesn't have the super battle droid which was really the best piece in the set. However, 7681 saw some really great gains in retirement even though it is only 5 years old and I would venture to say this set looks a little better and has a little more playability with the exclusive minifigure and the flick missile. 7681 saw 32.95% CAGR, so if this new one does half as good, it will be a win.

If you are starting to see similarities in these sets, they are all meant to be Genosis sets which will help each set's value in the long run. Anytime sets go together, it is good for investors.

My Investment Suggestion: I think this set has huge sleeper potential. Obviously, the old spider droid was a sleeper as well as there aren't many $30 sets that make it to 4 times their retail value in 5 years. Because of how many sets are coming out in this theme at one time and how many bigger sets are being released (the New UCS X-Wing, Ewok Village, etc.) this one most likely will be overlooked again.

The first set was technically a limited edition set and was a TRU exclusive and with this one not being, I would assume it won't do as well. At the same time, people who now can't afford the limited edition set will want this one instead. The original had one exclusive minifigure in Commander Fox and this one has Stass Allie. There are enough similarities in the sets to be able to accurately compare them.

Looking at all that, I see a safe prediction of 15% CAGR for this set down the road meaning it should definitely be on your radar as a potential sleeper. If it sees limited production for some reason again, it could go up even more. 15% CAGR would put this set at $60.34 in 5 years. Not bad to see a 100% gain over retail.

Duel on Genosis 75017

From the Lego Website:

Defeat Count Dooku™ and recover the plans for the Death Star!
Stop Count Dooku™ from leaving Geonosis™ with the plans for the Death Star! Use the Force to help Jedi Master Yoda™ jump into the air, dodge the Sith Lord’s Force Lightning attack and bring Dooku to justice. Don’t let him destroy the lair and escape on his speeder. Includes 4 minifigures with weapons: Count Dooku, Yoda, Poggle the Lesser and Dooku’s Pilot Droid™.
• Includes 4 minifigures with weapons: Count Dooku™, Yoda™, Poggle the Lesser and Dooku’s Pilot Droid™
• Lair features falling lamps, tower handle and hidden compartment
• Also features Dooku’s speeder
• Weapons include 2 Lightsabers
• Accessories include Death Star plans decorated tile, walking stick and a Force Lightning element
• Unleash Dooku’s Sith Force Lightning attack!
• Pull the lever and topple the pillar
• Hop on the speeder and outrun the Jedi!
• Hide the Death Star plans in the hidden compartment
• Collect the redesigned Yoda and Poggle the Lesser minifigures
• Lair measures over 5" (15cm) high, 15" (40cm) wide and 6" (17cm) deep
• Dooku’s speeder measures over 1" (4cm) high, 4" (12cm) long and 1" (4cm) wide

My Analysis: Yes! Finally we get to something a little bit unique among all the remakes and Star Wars vehicles. I love the Star Wars line, but until this set and the Ewok Village which will be discussed in part 2, I have felt like every year we were just getting more and more of the same.

This set is really a straight up throwback – Lego hasn't made a Star Wars “duel” set since 2002. I think that will really help this set a lot. It's something that is definitely different from the other sets that are currently out there and are gong to be out there. The set also has 2 exclusive redesigns to it in Yoda and Count Duku, a redesign that it only shares with 1 other set in FA-4 (will be included in the next SW advent calendar), and a new exclusive minifigure in Poggle the Lesser which is an awesome minfigure with wings shown below:

What sets apart this “duel” set from the originals as well is the terrain that comes with it. It has falling lamps and handles and hidden compartments for enormous playability. I also really love the Death Star plans on the decorated tile. It comes with a speeder as well for a quick getaway. This set is so much different from the other sets out there, I can't imagine it won't be a big success and a big investment winner.

My Investment Suggestion: Let's take a look at what some of the other duel sets look like right now:
7101 – Lightsaber Duel – 10.94% CAGR, 14 years old, $.12 price per piece retail
7103 Jedi Duel – 12.48% CAGR, 11 years old, $.12 price per piece retail
7200 Final Duel 1 – 13.32% CAGR , 11 years old, $.23 price per piece retail
7201 Final Duel 2 – 6.52% CAGR, 11 years old, $.27 price per piece retail

Looking at these, all of them were very good investments and all of them were very cheap. This is a little different since this is set is $40. However, the set has a ton more to offer. It actually has dueling terrain instead of just the dueling characters. It is at a very reasonable $.10 price per piece retail and is not a remake – something the Star Wars theme really needs. Add on the exclusives and I think this set is right on the edge of sleeper/target status. As an investor, ignore this set at your own risk.

My thoughts are that this set will see 20% CAGR after 5 years as a safe bet looking at how well these sets have done and how much better this one is. If that is true, it's value will be $99.53. This would definitely be a nice change of pace for us Star Wars investors. If you find this set discounted, buy it! What more could you want in a set?

Jek-14 Stealth Starfighter 75018

From the Lego website:

Capture Jek-14’s™ Stealth Starfighter!
Pursue the rogue clone, Jek-14™, in his amazing Stealth Starfighter with retractable landing gear, opening cockpit with space for a minifigure, folding wings, rotating and elevating blaster cannon, R4-G0™ astromech droid, storage compartment with holocron and 2 flick missiles. Will Jek-14 escape the Separatist Bounty Hunter™ and the Republic Special Forces Clone Trooper™, or has his power grown enough to face them? Includes R4-G0 astromech droid and 3 minifigures with weapons: Jek-14, Separatist Bounty Hunter™ and Special Forces Clone Trooper™.
• Includes R4-G0 astromech droid and 3 minifigures with weapons: Jek-14™, Separatist Bounty Hunter™ and Special Forces Clone Trooper™
• Features retractable landing gear, opening cockpit with space for a minifigure, folding wings, rotating and elevating blaster cannon, R4-G0™ astromech droid, storage compartment with holocron and 2 flick missiles
• Weapons include a Lightsaber, blaster rifle and blaster
• Also includes an energy shield
• Press the levers and fold the wings for flight mode!
• Fend off the enemy with the flick missiles and blaster cannon
• Open the storage compartment and reveal the holocron
• Measures over 3" (10cm) high, 13" (35cm) long and 13" (34cm) wide

My Analysis: This set is a little hard to figure out. First off, ignoring the investing angle, it looks pretty cool, but very overpriced. $.13 a piece is not really bad for a Star Wars set, but when I look at the box I just don't see shelling out $70 for it. The ship does look pretty cool with the black and red color scheme, but looking at the set I really think $60 seems a lot better. I think it will really have a tough time selling at that price. I saw it the other day in TRU (it was marked $99.99 LOL) and I just didn't see enough to warrant the price tag.

On the other hand, we have something that may be a first in the Star Wars line for the last 5 or 6 years: 4 exclusive minfigures. Yes the ship is from the Clone wars series and so there are a lot more characters from that which haven't been introduced, but it still rare to get this many new minifigures in one set. Jek-14, shown in the first picture below is pretty cool looking. He is a good change of pace form the other minfigures in the Star Wars line with his white suit and white handled light saber.

The special forces clone trooper is really cool too. He has a round shield that is pretty unique and his garb is a very extravagant blue which is very unique to this theme:

The other two figures are a little less intriguing though. The separatist bounty hunter looks too much like a guy in camo-garb to me and his white helmet seems a little out of place. The R4-G0 is another no-name droid that sort of looks like all the others. I won't complain about new minifigures, but he is nothing to get excited about:

The ship itself does have some extras. Again, Lego has included some flick missiles for our enjoyment and the ships wings fold in. I really like the sets that have moving wings and multiple positions. It allows kids to play in different ways with the sets. For me, it allows me different ways to display the ships – sometimes I open all their wings and sometimes I close them all.

My Investment Suggestion: More information needed. There is really not a lot we can compare this set to with all the exclusive minifigures. A lot of the current clone wars ships have not retired yet so we don't have a lot of data to compare it to. If it were an old popular ship with 4 exclusive minifigures, I would say definite home run, but the obscurity of the ship and the high retail price make me really wonder about it.

I would say about 6 months after this set comes out, we will have a lot better data. If these minifigures stay exclusive to the set, it could go way up. If no one buys the set, it may go down in value. Either way, I would say don't bite on this set unless you get it for under $50 and honestly I would wait a while before I even considered it. It does have some sleeper status, but we have to see if it even draws the attention of builders before we consider it to be a good investment.

This concludes the first installment of the new wave of Star Wars Lego Ships. Part 2 will include the 4 bigger sets of the series including the Jabba's Sail Barge remake an the much anticipated Ewok Village.

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.