Microfighters: Pint Sized Profits or a Fighting Chance?

There has been a rather lively debate about the suitability of the new Microfighter line as an investment vehicle. Few new lines have been as polarizing as Microfighters (I'm taking about you Chima), it seems that you either love them or hate them with few taking the middle ground. For those that haven't seen them, the Microfighters line consists of a small build of some of the more recognizable Star Wars ships with a "seat" for a mini figure. The effect of having the minifigure seated in such small ships is comical, the sets, as one forum member put it, resemble the cars from Mario Cart. Currently there are six different sets, they are:

75028 Clone Turbo Tank 96 pieces

75029 AAT 95 pieces

75030 Millennium Falcon 94 pieces

75031 TIE Interceptor 92 pieces

75032 X-Wing Fighter 97 pieces

75033 Star Destroyer 97 pieces

All sets are priced with an MSRP of $9.99 and come with one mini figure (the AAT comes with a droid).  While $9.99 may seem a little high for what amounts to an overgrown and boxed polybag, with the piece count of close to 100 each set has a PPB in the $0.10-$0.11 range, and you get the minifig. With the sets being so new they should Not be purchased at this time to hold long term. They may have some potential for turbo flipping as all six are currently sold out at S&H. Of the six the consensus seems to be that the Millennium Falcon and TIE Interceptor show the most promise for this purpose. If you do plan to attempt to flip these sets, they must be purchased at a substantial discount, a quick look at eBays sold listings show that the Falcon is consistently bringing $10.00-$15.00 as a BIN. A key driving force to this may be the unique printed cockpit piece in this version of the Falcon.

For more of a long term perspective lets go back to 2003/2004 and look at a few similarly sized sets, although without mini figures.  

	4492-1	4484-1	4488-1	4491-1
	STAR DESTROYER	X-WING FIGHTER & TIE ADVANCED	MILLENNIUM FALCON	MTT
Set Pieces	87	76	87	99
Set Year	2004	2003	2003	2003
Theme	STAR WARS	STAR WARS	STAR WARS	STAR WARS
Sub Theme	MINI BUILDING SET	MINI BUILDING SET	MINI BUILDING SET	MINI BUILDING SET
Retail Price (USD)	$6.99	$3.99	$6.99	$6.99
CAGR	8.02	14.69	17.60	6.95
Six Month Performance
Price Per Brick	$ 0.17 New $ 0.13 Used $ 0.08 Retail	$ 0.20 New $ 0.16 Used $ 0.05 Retail	$ 0.40 New $ 0.33 Used $ 0.08 Retail	$ 0.14 New $ 0.09 Used $ 0.07 Retail
LEGO VALUE COMPARISON: NEW SETS A breakdown and comparison of new values for your selected sets.
Current Market Value: New	$ 14.67	$ 15.33	$ 34.76	$ 13.69
One Month Change: New	4.79%	2.42%	1.67%	—
Six Month Change: New	14.71%	7.43%	36.85%	1.79%
One Year Change: New	13.35%	3.02%	7.72%	10.35%
Change from Retail: New	109.87%	284.21%	397.28%	95.85%
LEGO VALUE COMPARISON: USED SETS A breakdown and comparison of used values for your selected sets.
Current Market Value: New	$ 10.93	$ 12.00	$ 28.80	$ 9.33
One Month Change: Used	—	—	6.16%	—
Six Month Change: Used	2.44%	14.71%	16.13%	13.05%
One Year Change: Used	7.16%	20.00%	14.06%	1.48%
Change from Retail: Used	56.37%	200.75%	312.02%	33.48%

  Of these older sets the Millennium Falcon 4488 is the clear winner at nearly five times original retail, more interesting is that it's up almost 37% in the last six months. It's acting more like a set that's just recently retired than one that's been out for ten years. While the MTT has yet to double its MSRP over the same time period. It would seem the the fastest hunk of junk in the galaxy is a popular ship among collectors. I expect a similar pattern to repeat with these newer sets, if you chose to buy and hold any of the Microfighter line grab some Falcons. Now, however, is not the time to be loading up on these. They were just released and should have at a minimum 18 months to two years before retirement. Wait it out and watch how they do in the primary market.