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  • LEGO Creator Housing Market: Boom or Bubble?

    Veegs

    By Veegs

    One of the first things that I did when I got my hands on Lego bricks as a child was to build a house.  Generally I liked to renovate quite a bit and keep my minifigures in quality digs.  Also, I had quite a few minifigures and they all needed a place to go in my city.  Where do the ubiquitous police officers and fire fighters go after a long shift?  Back in the late 80’s, there was no easy solution to this problem.   In the last few years, I think The Lego Group has done an exceptional job of providing some really nifty Creator series houses that offer great playability and renovation possibilities to house the previously homeless.  


     

    In this segment, I would like to highlight the past growth of a few Creator houses to determine the investment potential of recently released and still available sets.  Let's take a look at some of the Creator Houses that have been retired for several years:

    #4954: Model Town Home

    Set Name Set # Pieces (Mini-Figs) Launch Year MSRP(US$) Current Price(US$) ROI One Month(%) ROI Six Month(%) ROI Total(%) CAGR(%)
    Model Town Home 4954 1147 (0) 2007 69.99 244.03 0 1.44 248.66 23.14

      LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION: This detailed set includes instructions for 3 different models, plus all the pieces you'll need to create your own original model! Features a garage that opens and closes to store a sporty car, plus lots of roof pieces, windows and doors. Includes extra elements for light fixtures, chimney, flowers and tons more to create the house of your dreams! Lift off the roof to see inside! Garage door opens and closes! Model Town House stands 9" (23 cm) high! Includes instructions to build 3 different models!  

     

    BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS

    A large Creator house set, this has shown some nice gains over the last six years, especially earlier after EOL.  The set has leveled off and plateaued in value.  From a build standpoint, it has an exceptional exterior and no interior detail.  A very good bargain though if you consider its piece count and price...about $0.06 per brick new.  This is really a very attractive looking LEGO set.  

     

    #4956: House

    Set Name Set # Pieces (Mini-Figs) Launch Year MSRP(US$) Current Price(US$) ROI One Month(%) ROI Six Month(%) ROI Total(%) CAGR(%)
    House 4956 731 (0) 2007 49.99 84.1 0.9 3.93 145.59 16.15

      LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION: Build the house of your dreams with LEGO Creator! This spectacular set includes instructions for 3 different house models, plus all the parts you'll need to design your own original creations. Add a garage, driveway and fence in the yard - the possibilities are endless! Features plenty of pieces for roofs, walls, doors, windows, even trees and gardens! Lift off the roof to see inside! Add a mailbox, porch lights and other realistic details! Includes building instructions for 3 models and inspiration for more!  

     

    BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS

    Flashy name...HOUSE!  LOL.  Anyway, a very basic Creator set with a a moderate return and Price Per Brick at around $0.07.  Nothing super special here...Just a solid building set with above average growth.  The CAGR of 16% is well above the average LEGO set, which is around 11%.  

     

    #4996: Beach House

    Set Name Set # Pieces (Mini-Figs) Launch Year MSRP(US$) Current Price(US$) ROI One Month(%) ROI Six Month(%) ROI Total(%) CAGR(%)
    Beach House 4996 522 (0) 2008 29.99 79.16 2.33 3.37 163.95 21.42

      LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION: Need to get away? Relax in your very own beach house! This colorful building is packed with fun and realistic details, from the big sunlit windows to the barbecue and umbrella. Includes instructions for rebuilding into a cozy café or towering apartment building! Second floor lifts off to see stairs and fireplace on the first floor! Second floor has a balcony and a skylight that opens! Outside there is a patio with table, umbrella and chairs, and even a barbeque grill with chicken! Realistic details include mailbox, doorbell, flowers, walkway, light fixtures, chimney, tree and lots of windows! Beach House stands over 6.5" (17cm) high and includes a 5" (13cm) x 10" (25cm) baseplate Award Winner: iParenting Media's Excellent Products of 2008 2008 Parent's Choice Recommended San Diego Family's Holiday List Option Consummator's 5 Star Rating Oppenheim Toy Portfolio's Gold Seal NAPPA Honors Award iParenting Media's 2008 Excellent Products CTTC's 3 Stars Creative Child Magazine's Preferred Choice Award  

     

    BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS

    Radical little house with a decent Price Per Piece of almost $0.07 per brick.  Very solid returns on this set  over the past five years, with a CAGR of over 20%.  Still appreciating nicely.   One of the better performing Creator “houses.”  

     

    #6754: Family Home

    Set Name Set # Pieces (Mini-Figs) Launch Year MSRP(US$) Current Price(US$) ROI One Month(%) ROI Six Month(%) ROI Total(%) CAGR(%)
    Family Home 6754 976 (0) 2009 59.99 104.51 5.6 -5.91 74.21 14.89

      LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION:3 houses in 1! Build a classic family home filled from wall to wall with great details, including an awning, window shutters, a terrace area and picnic bench, and even a bird bath and duck pond with a buildable duck. When you're done, take it all apart and rebuild it as a charming bungalow or a lovely Mediterranean-style villa -- instructions included for all 3! A cool 3-in-1 building experience! Features great details such as awning, shutters, bird bath, terrace area and picnic bench! Rebuilds into a bungalow or a Mediterranean villa! Family Home measures 10" (26cm) long and 9" (23cm) tall Award Winner: 2009 Parents' Choice Recommended National Parenting Center's Seal of Approval  

     

    BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS

    Detailed and cute, another bargain LEGO Creator set at $0.06 Price Per Piece.  The appreciation of this set has been choppy, but a 15% CAGR is nothing to scoff at considering STAR WARS sets have around a 9% CAGR for an entire theme.  One of the better looking Creator “houses” in my opinion.

    I think these are examples of quality sets that offer both high playability as well as investment potential.  Perhaps that is one reason why they have done so well on the secondary market.  For those that purchased these while available from retail outlets, likely on sale or at a discount, these investment picks would have netted impressive returns on investment (ROI).  Even at full retail prices, the growth has been substantial enough to reward investors.  Let’s take a look at a few currently available or recently retired sets:  

     

    #5891: Apple Tree House

    Set Name Set # Pieces (Mini-Figs) Launch Year MSRP(US$) Current Price(US$) ROI One Month(%) ROI Six Month(%) ROI Total(%) CAGR(%)
    Apple Tree House 5891 539 (0) 2010 44.99 51.1 -4.4 4.43 13.58 4.34

      LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION:Build a 3-in-1 classic family house! This modern country home with an apple tree outside is full of fun and realistic details, including a working mailbox with letters inside, a satellite dish on the roof, a basketball net and lawnmower, opening front and garage doors, a ladder up to the attic and more! Includes 3-in-1 instructions for rebuilding into a tall townhouse or a relaxing summer home.

    • Mailbox, lawnmower, outdoor light, water tap in the garden and much more!
    • Lift the roof and play inside!
    • 3 models in 1! Rebuild into a tall townhouse or summer home!

     

    BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS

    This set is still going strong, despite the fact that more recent Creator housing sets have already been retired.  That being said, TRU recently sent around an email that this will be finished shortly and they are getting harder to find in brick and mortar stores.  My wild and possibly inane speculation is that The Lego Group produced a heck of a lot of these after seeing the explosive growth of sets like the Millennium Falcon UCS.  Other than this, I’m not really sure why this set is still available.

    In terms of investment potential, this is a decent pick.  They can still be found under retail if you’re lucky and pretty good at scouring around for deals.  The little bump, close to $60 near Christmas, indicates to me that this set may have some legs post EOL despite its long run.  The lawnmower, basketball net and apple tree go really nicely with two of the iterations of the set, although the third, with the massive roof, doesn’t really display well.  You might not get rich with this set, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it in the $90-100 range within two years.  

     

    #5766: Log Cabin

    Set Name Set # Pieces (Mini-Figs) Launch Year MSRP(US$) Current Price(US$) ROI One Month(%) ROI Six Month(%) ROI Total(%) CAGR(%)
    Log Cabin 5766 355 (1) 2011 29.99 32.26 -4.33 18.04 7.57 3.72

      LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION:Escape to the LEGO® countryside in this 3-in-1 Log Cabin! Packed with great details, including an open fire with rotisserie, wooden logs, tree and opening doors and windows, this log cabin is an ideal wilderness getaway. Minifigure included and ready for backwoods adventure, with backpack, paddle and canoe. Rebuild into a country retreat or a river hut.

    • Includes one minifigure with backpack
    • Features open fire with chicken on rotisserie, wooden logs, tree, opening doors and windows, canoe with paddle, and horn ornament
    • Unique dark red roof
    • Remove the roof and hinging wall section to play inside!
    • The first LEGO® Creator set to include a minifigure!
    • 3 models in 1: Rebuilds into a country retreat and a river hut
    • River Hut features a brook, bridge, outdoor stove and furniture
    • Country Retreat features a garden, street lamp and porch light
    • Cabin measures over 5” (12cm) wide and 5” (12cm) tall.

     

    BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS

    Big things may come in small packages!  Don’t pooh-pooh this little gem – just look at how nicely the 4996 Beach House has fared despite its small stature.  This set was recently (and nicely!) discounted on Amazon.com and I’ve also seen it on sale from other retailers, so now might be the best time to stash a couple away.  I picked up five for $22 and change each, and feel pretty pleased with myself.  With the revival of the Coast Guard sub-theme this year and Forest Police Station last year, who doesn’t want a pretty cool looking log cabin for both play or display purposes?  I have an inkling (which is worth about as much as a Lego store employee telling you that something is definitely going EOL soon) that this set may be one that goes EOL this fall.  Not only would this be near the end of a two-year run, but other Creator sets from this year are drying up in the primary marketplace and the upcoming Tree House set seems like a ‘replacement’ for the Log Cabin.  All good reasons to buy low now.  

     

    #5770: Lighthouse Island

    Set Name Set # Pieces (Mini-Figs) Launch Year MSRP(US$) Current Price(US$) ROI One Month(%) ROI Six Month(%) ROI Total(%) CAGR(%)
    Lighthouse Island 5770 442 (1) 2011 39.99 59.05 4.48 53.18 47.66 21.52

      LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION:Keep the harbor safe with the 3-in-1 lighthouse! Everything you need for a safe ocean cove is right here! This 3-in-1 lighthouse rebuilds into a sturdy boathouse with a warning light and a cozy seafood restaurant! Use the binoculars as you peer out of the lighthouse for incoming ships! Press the roof to activate the LEGO® light brick and turn the handle to rotate the mirror to warn ships lost in the fog! Open the back of the lighthouse to access the stove and ladder. Once the ships are safe, rebuild into a boathouse to dock your motorboat or change into a seafood restaurant with a light-up oven to offer the sailors a warm meal.  

    • Includes minifigure
    • Features jetty with motorboat, LEGO® light brick, binoculars, stove, ladder, grill, 2 buildable seagulls and 2 fish
    • 3 models in 1: lighthouse rebuilds into a boathouse with lifeboat or seafood restaurant with fishing boat
    • Features LEGO® light brick, rotating mirror and removable back for easy access
    • Spin the boat’s propellors!
    • Shine the light to guide passing ships!
    • Launch the boat from the Lifeboat House with the handle!
    • Light the fire in the fish grill of the Seafood Restaurant!
    • Lighthouse measures 10” (25cm) tall and 8” (20cm) wide
    • Boat measures over 4” (10cm) long and 2” (5cm) wide
    • Lifeboat House measures over 8” (21cm) long, 7” (16cm) wide and 5” (12cm) tall
    • Seafood Restaurant measures over 9” (23cm) long, 4” (12cm) wide and 5” (13cm) tall

     

    BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS

    If you’ve ‘missed the boat’ on this delightful set, you’re probably going to have to pay above retail to ****** one.  This is one of the sets that I haven’t actually built yet, although I did get two (at Canadian retail) last month.  Supply of these has been drying up, but I do encourage you to snoop around and try to ****** one at retail somewhere, somehow.  Already the growth has been solid.  The light brick, the pretty cool design and the way it fits in for play and display purposes with other recently released sets makes this a solid pick.  I personally see the ceiling of this set at $90-$100, so even a buy at a little above retail might make sense.  The set is retired, so you likely won’t have to wait long to see a return, although I’d hesitate to buy over $55 or so.  

     

    #5771: Hillside House

    Set Name Set # Pieces (Mini-Figs) Launch Year MSRP(US$) Current Price(US$) ROI One Month(%) ROI Six Month(%) ROI Total(%) CAGR(%)
    Hillside House 5771 714 (1) 2011 69.99 74.34 -0.23 -0.76 6.22 3.06

    LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION:Build your dream home with 3-in-1 style! No matter what sort of home you dream of, this 3-in-1 hillside house is packed with details to please every style. Ring the sound brick doorbell, hear the dog bark, open the roof to access top floor and walk up the stairs in this two story dwelling. Park the car in the garage or pull up a folding chair as you grill your lunch on the patio! For a change of scenery, rebuild into a smaller home with a greenhouse or create a more contemporary home, sure to impress the whole neighborhood.  

    • Includes minifigure, dog and blue car
    • Features a 2 story interior with hinged roof, sound brick, stairs, fireplace, garage, patio with grill, opening windows and balcony
    • Packed with accessories including grilling charcoal, hotdogs, translucent elements, water spout and realistic lights
    • Ring the door bell or hear the dog bark with the LEGO® sound brick!
    • Open the roof to play inside or remove the second floor to play downstairs!
    • 3 models in 1: hillside house rebuilds into smaller house with greenhouse or a modern home
    • Hear the doorbells of the Modern House and the House with Greenhouse!
    • Lift the roof or open the doors to play inside the Modern House and the House with Greenhouse!
    • Measures over 10” (25cm) long, 10” (25cm) wide and 7” (17cm) tall
    • Blue car measures over 3” (7cm) long and 1” (2cm) tall
    • Modern House measures over 10” (25cm) wide, 10” (25cm) long and 7” (19cm) tall
    • House with Greenhouse measures over 10” (25cm) wide, 5” (13cm) long and 5” (14cm) tall

     

    BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS

    I think this might be one of the coolest Creator houses you can get your hands on.  The set is on the larger size relative to other houses at 714, and has pretty cool features in all three iterations.  Probably the most well known feature of the set is the sound brick, which is pretty cool in terms of uniqueness and playability.  The display is also quite nice for those looking to fill out a city.  This set was primarily only available through TRU and S&H, which probably is why it can still be found here and there.  Around Christmas there were some okay sales, but nothing I recall in the 40% off or more category, so perhaps investors purchased where the bigger discounts were.  That might be a good strategy, but I wouldn’t wait too long, as it is listed as a retired product.  The next time you see a decent TRU sale or have a coupon, this might be worth grabbing.  From its size alone, as well as its exclusivity, this might bring returns like the House or Family Home, and I think that is on the conservative end of the spectrum, as neither of those sets has the sound brick.  

     

    #7346: Seaside House

    Set Name Set # Pieces (Mini-Figs) Launch Year MSRP(US$) Current Price(US$) ROI One Month(%) ROI Six Month(%) ROI Total(%) CAGR(%)
    Seaside House 7346 415 (1) 2012 49.99 46.03 -13.23 -13.33 -7.92 -7.92

      LEGO S@H DESCRIPTION:Build your 3-in-1 dream seaside home! Enjoy life by the sea in your very own 3-in-1 Seaside House – made to minifigure scale! Go surfing on the surfboard, use the outdoor shower and then grill a feast on the beach. Just watch out for the pesky seagull sitting in the palm tree – he's hungry too! This detailed Seaside House also includes an opening roof and removable top floor for easy access. When you're ready for a different seaside building, use the supplied alternative building steps to rebuild it into a house with a beach hut or cute vacation apartment. Includes surfer minifigure.  

    • Features 2-story interior with opening roof, removable top floor, double doors, veranda and shower
    • Includes surfer minifigure, seagull, crab and fish
    • Packed with accessories including life ring, surfboard, grill, sand castle and even a wave in the sea!
    • A great 3-in-1 building experience – rebuild into a house with beach hut or vacation apartment!
    • Go surfing!
    • Grill a feast on the beach!
    • Watch out for the hungry seagull!
    • House with beach hut features a stream with bridge, palm tree and drink machine in the hut
    • Vacation apartment features sea jetty, terrace and patio furniture
    • Seaside House measures over 7" (17cm) high, 5" (13cm) wide and 9" (24cm) long
    • House with beach hut measures over 5" (14cm) high, 5" (12cm) wide and 9" (24cm) long
    • Vacation apartment measures over 8" (20cm) high, 5" (13cm) wide and 7" (18cm) long

     

    BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS

    Y’arh!  Even pirates need a beachside home.  This is another great addition to the line, blending display and play very nicely, especially with City-themed sets recently released.  With the 2012 release, these will probably be available for some time yet, but they might be a set to keep an eye on for discounts.  I jumped at a couple of these at $35, and Amazon had them listed at $37 not too long ago, so there are deals to be had.  As a few other sets retire, we should have a better idea of how this will fare post-EOL.

    The downside of Creator house investing is likely the small profits, coupled with the need for more shipping and storage.  Notice that the return on investment may be quite high, but you would likely need to sell two or three sets (or more!) to make the same total profit you could make on a much larger Ultimate Collector's Series STAR WARS type set.  More sales means more trips to the post office, more packaging and generally the possibility of more hassle.  While I wouldn’t characterize these as a ‘grinder’ investment (grinding out a very small total profit on a set, but with a large volume), it certainly isn’t for everyone.  You’ll need ample storage and a familiarity with shipping a few different-sized boxes.  A huge plus is that larger investors may overlook these sets, making the secondary market a little smaller with more room for investors like me (10K and under in terms of portfolio) and possibly investors like you!

    Overall, the trend has been for Creator houses to perform quite well in the secondary market.  While I think the Apple Tree House (5891) may suffer a little from the ‘Millennium Falcon’ syndrome outlined above, the relatively quick run of the Lighthouse Island (5770) and its steady growth since being retired indicates to me that Creator houses possess some of the most solid investment picks out there.  The City theme isn’t going anywhere and houses are always going to remain popular.  The upcoming Tree House (31010) and Family House (31012) look like a strong continuation in this series, and rather than sap investment potential from currently available Creator houses, I think it will actually aid them.  People like to collect and they like variety, so quality sets in 2013 should both encourage the retirement of older sets while raising the visibility of the theme (and the overall growth of the theme).  While the real world may be heading for a housing bubble (or so they say up here in Canada), the LEGO home investment market looks like it has strong growth ahead.

     
    “ED”itor's Notes:  These “house” Creator sets have “under the radar” written all over them.  To be quite honest, I never paid them any mind...to my detriment.  There are some solid performers among these sets.  Maybe it was the lack of multiple minifigures or just the simple designs, whatever the reason, I should have paid more attention to them.  I usually like investing in LEGO sets I can see myself building and have bought many other Creator sets in the past.  Jet planes, dinosaurs and various polybags have come to mind, but I always blew off these very quaint and practical LEGO sets.  I won't anymore.  These sets are perfect for diversifying your Brickfolio.  Mix in a couple of Ninjago and Monster Fighter sets, with a sprinkle of Friends and STAR WARS and you have a nicely balanced collection... 
     
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