Is LEGO Minecraft 21102 Becoming a Flop?

There has been a flurry of activity with this set within the last couple days, and it seems to be causing a lot of LEGO investors to change their feelings toward it. Amazon had around 550 units for sale on January 9, and Toys R Us was offering it online on January 11. Even the official Minecraft site, www.JINX.com, got in on the fun and offered a small number of these for sale the same day.

With all these recent offerings, the general feeling of this set seems to have shifted to an unusually negative outlook for a lot of investors. This is understandable. We are talking about a set that started out with a stated production run of only 10,000 units. Then, due to the overwhelming and unexpected popularity of Minecraft as a game, another undisclosed number of these sets became available, and then another, and then another…

It seems to be a recurring theme these days. Just when people are thinking, "Okay, that has got to be it, right?," another batch of them shows up for sale somewhere. A $34.99 set that very recently commanded over $100 on the secondary market is now quickly becoming something a lot of people are rolling their eyes at. The going rate on eBay and Amazon is $60 on a good day, and will likely drop with all the recent quantities offered.

The exclusive feel of the Minecraft set is starting to feel… not so exclusive. There are so many of them out there that the value seems to be plunging. A lot of people who ordered them recently are already discussing their plans to hopefully flip them quickly and make a small $20 profit if they're lucky.
Before people get too hung up in this kind of thinking, there are many aspects of the Minecraft set that should be carefully considered before they make the rash decision of dumping their stock. There is no need to feel this negativity toward a set that we were all so excited about only a few short weeks ago. The value of the Minecraft set is still alive and well, and I am here to tell you why and hopefully put your fears to rest.

Please consider the following:

Minecraft has indeed been offered for sale far more times than any of us expected. But it sells out in what is probably record timing EVERY time. The Amazon offering on January 9 was gone in under an hour. That is 550+ units in under 60 minutes! On January 11, I was notified the instant the sets became available on the Toys R Us website. Within 15-20 minutes they were gone. Then another forum poster pointed out that they were available on the Minecraft developer site. Within 10 minutes…you guessed it…gone!

Does this sound like the makings of a set that has limited or waning interest? Absolutely not! Sure, the number of sets in existence keeps going up, and at a frustratingly unpredictable rate, but they disappear as suddenly as they reappear.

When people invest in a product to hopefully make a profit on it, it comes as no surprise when they feel frustration at the fact that the value of the product is cut in half in a couple weeks' time. It is easy to jump on board with something that is rapidly soaring in value. Naturally, it is equally easy to lose faith in the same product once that value seems to peak, and then rapidly declines.

So here we are, watching the value of Minecraft Micro World sink faster than the Titanic. But this is one ship that it would be wise to not jump off of just yet. Keep in mind that there are many sets that we have all collected that were readily available on retail shelves everywhere for over two years that became very profitable once they were retired. The operative word in that sentence being EVERYWHERE. Minecraft has certainly not been available everywhere. When it is available, you miss it if you dare to blink. It has pretty much always been available NOWHERE. The market may currently feel flooded with Minecraft sets, but that is only because we are all used to tripling our investment on it almost immediately. We all know that LEGO investing requires patience above all else, but we are not used to having to exercise that kind of patience with Minecraft. If we give it time, this situation will even itself out.

If you need to recoup your $35 investment right away and ensure a small profit, go ahead and sell. But the smart money says it is time to start treating this set like we would any other LEGO set; get it while you can, sell it for a lot once it's gone. It just means we need to adjust our thinking and accept the fact that Minecraft is not the dynamite short-term investment it once was.

When compared to your average STAR WARS or Super Heroes set, Minecraft will still ultimately have much more limited production and availability numbers. As the Minecraft game continues to get more and more popular, the demand and interest for its LEGO equivalent will also go up. And when the game fizzles out, you are still left with a LEGO set that was very underproduced by comparison. Either way, this is a set that is going to be talked about for years to come. Until we are seeing 21102 Minecraft Micro World sets on Walmart and Target retail shelves everywhere, we've got nothing to worry about. So sit tight everyone. Hold on to those Minecraft sets for a while. Give them a chance. You can thank me later.