The New LEGO Castle Sets: Will They be Worth Wading the Treacherous Moat for?

Lego Castle sets have been a consistent theme in Lego's portfolio since the late 1970's when the first Castle set came out. Unfortunately, it has not necessarily been one of the most impressive themes in terms of CAGR, but some of that is because of how long it's been around and how many sets have been made (Just take a look at the Star Wars overall CAGR and you can see).

Inside this theme, there have been some big winners amongst the normal gaining sets like the 7946 King's Castle (CAGR of over 30%) and 7185 Escape from Dragon's Prison (CAGR of 57.60%!!!) which means there are some winners to be found int his theme. So is the next line of Castle sets released this year a set of winners? Or should we just assume the castles are guarded by rude French people who throw dead animals?

First up is the 70400 Forest Ambush :

From the Lego website:

Repel the Dragon soldier Forest Ambush!
Help the brave knights to repel the Forest Ambush! Take the chest of gold and treasure safely back to the castle on the armored cart. When the path through the forest is suddenly blocked by a fallen tree, fend off the Dragon soldier ambush! Draw your weapons, fend off the flick-missile attack and return the gold safely to the castle! Includes 4 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights and 2 Dragon soldiers.

• Includes 4 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights and 2 Dragon soldiers
• Features armored cart and a forest base
• Armored cart features turning wheels, flags and treasure chest with gold and treasure
• Forest base features flick missile and falling tree function
• Weapons include spear, crossbow, axe, sword and a spiked mace
• Accessories include 2 shields and a dog
• Chop down the tree and stage an ambush
• Fire the flick missile
• Protect the treasure
• Armored cart measures over 2" (6cm) high, 2" (6cm) long, and 1" (4cm) wide
• Forest base measures over 3" (8cm) high, 2" (7cm) wide, and 1" (5cm) deep

My Analysis: This set doesn't have a whole lot of pieces but does have 4 minifigures for a very low price at 11.99. It's $.13 per piece, which is not bad for a set with a lot of minfigures . The Dragon soldiers look really cool and should add some easy value to the set. The flick missiles are always an added plus as well. What may really make the set is the Lego dog added in. I think this is just a great value set for an investor if you get it at a little bit of a discount. Because of all the minifigures and the dog you will be able to easily get your money back out of the set by selling the minifigures. This is also a great set for army building to compliment the other castle sets. On its own, I am not sure it would be a big time winner, but as I will allude to later, because of these line I think it will do really well.

Next we have the 70401 Gold Getaway

From the Lego site:

Stop the Dragon soldier from escaping with the King’s Gold!
Stop the Dragon soldier from stealing the King’s fortune in a Gold Getaway! Fire the large crossbow’s flick missiles from behind the outpost and stop the Dragon soldier on his horse-drawn prison carriage from escaping with the King’s gold! Activate the cell door bust-out function and release the King's Knight. Includes 3 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights and a Dragon soldier.

• Includes 3 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights and a Dragon soldier
• Features prison carriage, outpost and a large crossbow
• Prison carriage features cell door bust-out function, treasure chest and a poseable horse with armor
• Large crossbow features wheels and a flick missile
• Weapons include sword, axe and a long axe
• Accessories include shield and a whip
• Collect the never-before featured horse-head armor element
• Pose the horse
• Fire the flick missile and stop the Dragon soldier escaping with the gold
• Release the King’s Knight from the prison cell
• Prison carriage with horse measures over 3" (8cm) high, 7" (19cm) long and 2" (6cm) wide
• Outpost measures over 3" (8cm) high, 2" (6cm) wide and 1" (4cm) deep

My Analysis: This set is a lot like the first, just with some extra pieces. At $19.99, it's right at $.10 cents per piece which is again really good for the amount of minifigures you are getting with the set. However, what really sets this one apart is the awesome horse and the matching night. I love the contrasting black and red they colored the horse, the corresponding knight, and the carrier. This really makes this set. I think right off the bat you could buy this set and piece out the minfigures and you are going to make money. I think this is going to be a big time sleeper set in this theme and could be a big time investor value later on. In other licensed themes, a set like this would be close to $30. If you get any discounts at all on this set I would absolutely jump on them.

Next up is 74002 The Gateway Raid:

From the Lego website:

Fend off the Dragon forces as they stage a Gatehouse Raid!
Ready, aim and fire your weapons! The Dragon forces are staging a Gatehouse Raid with their large catapult. Return fire from the gatehouse tower with the King’s Knights’ catapult attack! Stop the Dragon Knight on his fully armored horse from breaking through the gate! Includes 4 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights, a Dragon Knight and a Dragon soldier.

• Includes 4 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights, a Dragon Knight and a Dragon soldier
• Features a gatehouse, large catapult and the Dragon Knight’s armored horse
• Gatehouse features a tower, small catapult and an opening gate
• Large catapult features wheels, dual launcher and a storage box
• Weapons include spear, crossbow and 2 swords
• Accessories include flags, flame elements, a shield and a coat of arms
• Launch a catapult attack!
• Stop the Dragon Knight on armored horseback
• Combine with 70404 King’s Castle for an even bigger model
• Measures over 7" (20cm) high, 7" (18cm) wide, and 3" (8cm) deep
• Large catapult measures over 2" (6cm) high, 3" (8cm) long, and 1" (5cm) wide

My Analysis: Awesome set; another Horse and Knight in that daunting black and red along with some extra dragon knights. I really love the way all of these sets compliment each other – this is going to really be big for the army/town building buyers. All of these sets fit together so well. I really like this set but don't see near as much value as the last set basically having the same number of minfigures and the same types. The little castle piece looks pretty good but at $.12 a piece I don't think this will be one of the better investments out there. If it gets discounted to a better price, could be a sleeper. The catapult is a good add on for playability and I think it would be a fun build looking at it.

Next is the 74003 Dragon Mountain:

From the Lego website:

Battle for the princess at Dragon Mountain!
Travel to Dragon Mountain to battle its fire-breathing guardian! Load up the large catapult and fire it at the dragon’s tower! Defeat the dragon and the Dragon Wizard! Search for the King’s stolen gold hidden in the dragon’s nest and find the secret potion room. Then overpower the Dragon soldier on the steps of the tower and rescue the princess from the dark dungeon! Includes 5 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights, princess, Dragon Wizard and a Dragon soldier.

• Includes 5 minifigures with weapons and accessories: 2 King’s Knights, princess, Dragon Wizard and a Dragon soldier
• Features large catapult, spiral staircase, tower with dungeon and dragon nest with secret gold compartment and potion room
• Large catapult features wheels and a catapult function
• Weapons include 2 swords, spear and a staff
• Accessories include a treasure chest and 2 shields
• Destroy the tower with the powerful catapult
• Free the princess from the dungeon
• Defeat the wizard in his tower
• Find the hidden stash of gold
• Discover the secret potion room
• Launch an aerial attack with the dragon’s poseable wings
• Measures over 8" (21cm) high, 9" (24cm) wide and 5" (13cm) deep
• Catapult measures over 1" (4cm) high, 4" (12cm) long and 3" (9cm) wide
• Dragon measures over 4" (11cm) high, 13" (35cm) long and 13" (33cm) wide

My Analysis: In case you have been living in a cave for the past year or two, Dragons are pretty popular. Just go check out the Ninjaco Theme to see for yourself (If you don't know, it has the best CAGR of any theme at the moment and most of it's lineup is focused on dragons). This set is going to be the best of the bunch in my opinion. We have precedent from a few years ago with the 7185 Escape from Dragon's Prison, and this one is going to be the same way. For what you get, the set is priced really well at $49.99 and $.13 a piece because of the dragon. It's amazing looking and that black and red is just incredible. I love this line because of it.

One of my tests for a set I am unsure about is to show it to my wife and see what she thinks as she is a more casual Lego fan. Her mouth fell open looking at the dragon. On top of it, you get a pretty large catapult and 5 more minifigures! Stock up people, this set is going to really dominate this line. I think it could be a $125 set in a few years. The dragon alone will be worth the price of the set's retail price by the time its been EOL for a year or so.

Last, but certainly not least is 74004 King's Castle

From the Lego Website:

Defeat the Dragon soldiers in the final battle at the King’s Castle!
Protect the King and his people from the Dragon soldiers at the King’s Castle! Fire the catapult, lower the drawbridge, raise the gate and lead the charge with the fearless White Knight on his armored horse! Stop the Dragon soldiers before they use the deadly battering ram and catapult weapon. This fantastic modular castle design features towers, a dungeon, the King’s throne, the knights’ table, a moveable staircase, secret escape door and more. Includes 7 minifigures with weapons and accessories: the King, White Knight, 2 King’s soldiers and 3 Dragon soldiers.

• Includes 7 minifigures with weapons and accessories: the King, White Knight, 2 King’s soldiers and 3 Dragon soldiers
• Features battering ram/catapult weapon, towers, prison, collapsing back wall, King’s throne, knights’ table, moveable staircase, hidden escape door, weapon rack and flags
• Weapons include spiked mace, 3 swords, axe, crossbow and a bow with quiver
• Accessories include 2 shields and a treasure chest
• Push the battering ram to fire the catapult!
• Customize and build your own modular castle design
• Combine with 70402 The Outpost for an even more awesome model
• Measures over 11" (28cm) high, 13" (35cm) wide and 12" (33cm) deep
• Battering ram/catapult weapon measures over 1" (5cm) high, 3" (9cm) long and 2" (6cm) wide

My analysis: This set is very similar is almost exactly the same size and piece count as the aforementioned older King's Castle that has seen a CAGR of 30%. This one is going to be right there with it in my opinion. First off, the castle looks great and has 7 minifigures, with several being exclusive to the set. Second, this set is a different color scheme which means if builders and collectors have the red line from a few years ago, this one will contrast it well. They could set it up as an opposing kingdom! Castle's themselves have done really well and will continue to because of Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings and Monster Fighters and this line itself. This one, in my opinion, will be the second best set of the line and will easily reach the CAGR of the last King's Castle.

Overall Analysis: Though this theme hasn't been the biggest winner of all time, I think Lego has finally figured out exactly what is in right now with castles and dragons. With the added detail and vibrant color scheme of this line, I think these are going to continue the success of the last line of this theme. The last line EOL'd fairly quickly as well so if that happens to these, we could really see some big time gains.

As far as playability, these sets are off the chart with the mass amount of minifigures and the way the sets really come together. I think even if you don't want to invest in these you can agree they would be really fun to have on display, and even more fun to play with.

Either way, I know I am going to follow this one rule with Lego in general: Invest in the Dragons. I encourage you to follow in those footsteps (I definitely didn't pave them so I am following as well).

What do you think will be the biggest winner in this theme? How well do you think the theme will do overall?

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.