The Mighty Rancor: Monster Profits? Or will the Metal Gate Drop on Your Investment?

So tons of articles on here are investment based articles and this is going to go right along with it. But I wanted to do something just a little bit different to see the type of response it got. So I decided to build a set as I was writing an article on it and take pictures along the way and then include them in the analysis. My starting set is one I have been waiting for a while to build: 75005 The Rancor Pit.

The scene with Luke and the Rancor pit is one of my favorite scenes of all time from Star Wars. This is one of the greatest scenes because it has about half of the coolest Star Wars characters all in the same scene. When Lego announced a new Jabba's Palace along with a Rancor Pit to go with it, I knew I had to have both of them.

I was a good boy and waited until I found a decent deal on both of them. I decided to go from the ground up so I started with the Rancor Pit first. I am going to walk you through the set as I build it as well as give you my outlook and investment thoughts at the end.

First off, who doesn't love a Rancor? That is one of the most awesome monsters of all time and it really deserves it's own movie. However, when you look at the box, the set is only 380 pieces, so it seems like you are really paying for the Rancor which worried me that the rest of the set was nothing great. I got it with a Kmart deal and some rewards dollars so I paid about $43 for it. At $60 though its pushing $.20 a piece after you pay tax/shipping which seems a little high.

However, when I opened the set, I was amazed at how much came with it. It seemed like way more that 380 pieces. This is what it looked like opened below:

Looking through it, its because of more than just the giant rancor. The base of the “Cage” is made of giant Lego flat plane pieces. On top of that, there are column pieces which are two half pieces that fit together as the equivalent of about 10 normal Lego pieces for each column. Then you have the Gate, which is massive, so that the giant Rancor can fit through it. On top of that, there is an extra people-sized door. I definitely see the worth in it now; Price per piece just doesn't really do this set justice.

I opened the pages and start off with the most fun part: The minifigures. The Gamorrean guard is awesome. If you have seen the original, he is a very nasty green color and doesn't have a lot of features. As you can see below, this one is way better looking. He is very detailed and has some awesome armor on him:

Next was Luke, which comes with the bone he uses to fight the Rancor in the movie. This minifigure is the normal Jedi Fighter Luke, but the bone he comes with is actually pretty sweet as seen below. It's much bigger than the normal Lego bones and I think it adds a nice bit of playability to the set:

Now for the best part, the Rancor. First off, this minifigure has all the makings of being a legendary minifigure. If you don't know, to be a legendary minifigure you must have at least three of the following attributes:

• Be huge –5 times a normal minifigures
• Have 10 or more pieces
• Be able to eat a normal minifigure
• Be a Rancor

There are some Legendary minifigures that only meet the first three criteria, but this one meets all of them evidenced by the picture below:

Just for good measure to prove my point:

Lego Luke didn't stand a chance. The Rancor also stands up well unlike the Cave Troll in Lego LOTR Mines of Moria. On to the set.

Really after you open those three minifigures, its a little bit of a letdown, not because the set is bad, but because most of the building is pretty normal block on top of block building. After you build the towers, you put in the giant gate which is really detailed and really well done. On top of this, you add a bucket and pitchfork on the side which I think really make the set. This is one of the reasons Lego is so amazing. They never forget to add the minor details that make something stand out:

On to bag two and you get more minifigures. One of them is another exclusive mini to this set, Malikili. He is done pretty well, although his shirt is off just like in the movie. Luckily they didn't copy him too much as I think most people who saw the movie would have rather him kept his shirt on. The skeleton that comes with it is actually really cool. Though he looks like the ones that comes with the Mines of Moria set, this one is actually set up so you can move his arms and legs and make them stay in place. You can put him anywhere on the set you want!

The rest of the second bag is pretty uneventful – just building the floor of the area that holds up the cage's columns. However, right at the end, Lego again adds those small details that make something amazing. There is a key and some extra skeleton pieces that you can stick inside a trap door on the back of the platform. Along with it, there is a Lego skeleton head for good measure:

Bag 3 includes the columns. This is pretty straightforward and is the quickest bag by far:

Bag 4 completes the set by having you add the top parts to the cage, a door on the side and some Lego torches at the entrance of the cage (again with the detail Lego!). The set put together, even without Jabba is pretty impressive:

All in all its an awesome set to build. Its one of those sets that takes you the perfect amount of time. You can build it in about an hour or less, maybe two with a child, and there is nothing brutal or tedious at all. Since you build it from the floor up it stays together well. It's very sturdy too – I usually try to move my sets around and feel how well they hold up; this one seems like it could hold some weight the way it was designed (which makes sense if it has to hold Jabba). Here is a picture of how I am leaving it set up:

So on to my investment thoughts:

Absolute home-run.

First off, before we get into numbers and analysis, you need to remember one thing. IT HAS A RANCOR IN IT. The Rancor is incredible, possibly the best minifigure out there – it rivals the dinosaurs and dragons. Going farther, the Rancor is exclusive to this set and it was just rebooted this year with Jabba's palace. Unless the Rancor makes an appearance in the new movies, which I doubt since he died along with Jabba, I think this will be the only one of all time. Looking back in the Star Wars theme, while there are plenty of sets that didn't do that well, the ones that did were typically the ones that were out of the ordinary (like something outside of the main story line but were still iconic) and the ones that weren't remakes of another set. I think this Rancor figure will be $60-$70 alone within two years.

Along with that, it has 4 other minifigures which really adds to the value – especially the redone Gamorrea and the exclusive Malikili. Even though Malikili is not a hugely popular character, a lot of people who collect Star Wars will want him just to have another different minifig with all the remakes out there.

Investment Data

Finding comparable sets to this set is pretty rough. First off, this set has a small number of pieces, but a lot of minifigure value. Also, it is the first set of an iconic scene in the movies. Looking for that criteria, I only came up with three good comparable sets to look at in the same price range.

General Grevious Starfighter (7656) – This set doesn't have the minifigures, but it is an iconic ship and it has one very iconic minifigure in General Grevious. The piece count is also fairly similar, though it is the least similar of the three I chose.

Mos Eisley Cantina (4501) – Mos Eisley Cantina is much closer. It has 5 Minifigures plus a giant Dewback. It's also a very iconic scene from the movie and it was really the first set to show that scene (besides the old Landspeeder).

Jabba's Palace (4480) – You knew this one was coming. The original Jabba's Palace has the huge minifig for us to compare to: Jabba himself. It does have a few less pieces, but is depicting an iconic scene from the movies that happens to occur over top of this scene. So let's see how these sets compare:

Though the retail price is not really similar, adjusting for inflation, and the fact this set has a few more pieces, the prices make sense. I think this set will definitely see at least the same growth as these. I would actually argue that besides Jabba's Palace, this is the best one out of the 3. If the Rancor Pit hits the average of these three, it would see 16.6% CAGR. If we assume an investor holds this set for two years, this means the set is going to be worth about $80 at that point. Nothing amazing, but a good safe growth.

However, there are a couple of things that increase this outlook in my eyes. Number 1, the Jabba controversy. Everyone remembers that a bunch of people thought the new Jabba's Palace was going EOL early. Everyone went nuts and these were sold out everywhere. I would say that there were a lot bought that will be circulating around now, but many will just be stashed away until the set EOLs. If people decide to stick with them, you have to get a Rancor pit to go along with it. Plus, with the price of the Jabba's Palace, this set really looks like a deal for an add on and makes the set all the more impressive.

Secondly, I think this set is a big sleeper because its not a UCS set and is not an iconic Star Wars ship. I think it will be passed over quite a bit, especially with the way StarWars sets have evened out a bit over the last few years. I even think most people will go off of the old Jabba sets to think that the Palace will do better. However, in a few years when the movies start back up, we will have a new generation interested and watching the old movies, and this set will have just recently been EOL'd driving the price up.

The last big x-factor here is playability. Besides us older AFOL's loving these set as a display, this has tons of playability for children. I can't imagine that kids don't have this Rancor eating every minfig in site. I know I did, and I am 26 years old!

I think this set will really jump in the first year after EOL. Plus, there will be sales where you can get this set down to around $40 by adding it on with bigger sets in deals that include a % off your total sale, or something of that nature. At that point, you really can't lose. I think this set will end up being right around 20 CAGR after 5 years, but I think we are going to see 25-30% CAGR in the first two years. If this is correct, we will see it go for around $95 dollars 2 years after EOL. If you pick many of these up for about $45 each and pay $20 in fees (shipping and seller's fees), then you are looking at a 67% ROI in two years, which is excellent. Try finding that in a savings account!

While it maybe isn't going to set records like the Haunted House or the Tower Bridge, I think it is a solid investment and will be perfect for an investor looking for safe bets and solid returns. Either way, if you like Star Wars at all or have children, buy this set! You will not be dissapointed.

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.