The Magic Number: When the Growth Stops

There are many people who have invested, are investing, and will invest in various markets, like the stock market. There is a wide variety of what you can invest in, and there is a lot of people to invest in them. Alas, the Lego collecting market is a lot smaller. Not that many people see that Legos can be used as an investment. They just see it as a great toy for children to play with. But, there is a few people who see that you can make a buck or two investing in Legos.

The stock market is continually changing. That is very different for the Lego collecting market. Lego sets are no sold as often and not sold in great numbers as the stock market, but the sets do gain or lose value as the stock market does. There is one aspect that I have not noticed in the stock market, that sometimes occurs in the Lego collecting market. That is that a Lego set will just stop gaining value and stay at the value it is at. Most likely increasing or decreasing a little at a time. This idea seems far-fetched, but it is very possible.

I check the values of sets every month. Then I compare that to what the previous value of the set. Most likely, the set has ether increased or decreased in value, but after careful observation at various charts, one aspect has appeared several times. The set seems to stop gaining value. If you look at a chart for the set, the values for the past months appear to be in a straight horizontal line. Some of these sets will be anaylzed. Here are some sets.

10018 Darth Maul

The 10018 Darth Maul set is an Ultimate Collector's Series set. The set has 1,868 pieces, with a retail price of $149.99 USD. The set was released in 2001.
Here are the values of the set:

• New: $727.33 USD, 0% change from the previous month.
• Used: $412.73 USD, Up 2.8% from the previous month.

Current CAGR: 14.06%.

This set has not increased or decreased in value much over the past six months. Over the past year there has only been 10 Darth Maul sets sold new. The sale trend for the set has been the same for the past two months. The four months before that, the sale trend were only a few dollars away from the sale trends from the past two months. Those close sales trends have been affected by how many sets are available to be sold, how old the set is, and how desirable the set is.

10143 Death Star II

The 10143 Death Star set is an Ultimate Collector's Series set. The set has 3,441 pieces, with a retail price of $298.99 USD. The set was released in 2005. Here are the values for the set:

• New: $ 1,089.19 USD, Up 8.26% from the previous month.
• Used: $ 534.20 USD, Down 12.18% from the previous month.

Current CAGR: 17.54%.

The set has not increased very much over the past two to three months. Over the past year there has been ninty-eight sold new. I do not consider that a lot. Some other sets have sold hundreds in one month. Because there were more sets sold, the sales trend is a little more varied. The past three months, the sales trend stayed almost the same. If there were less sets sold, then the sale trand may have been less varied. For this set, it is a case of temporary stopped growth. The value of the set did not change much for three months, then the value of the set changed a lot. The set having stopped growth for a short period of time may have been affected by how many sets are available to be sold and how desirable the set is.

7115 Gungan Patrol

The 7115 Gungan Patrol set s a Star Wars set from Episode I: The Phantom Menace. The set has seventy-seven pieces, with a retail price of $9.99 USD. The set was released in 2000. Here are the values for the set:

• New: $25.73 USD, Down 3.27% from the previous month.
• Used: $12.81 USD, Up 25.47% from the previous month.

Current CAGR: 7.55%.

The set had its period of barely any growth from November 2012 to February 2013. That is four months of little growth. Over the past year there were sixty sets sold new. That is not a lot for a whole year. From November 2012 to February 2013 the sales trend only varied thirty-three cents. That is very little. For four months, the set did not grow in value. This may have been affected by how desirable the set is, how many sets are available to be sold, and how old the set is.

8010 Darth Vader

The 8010 Darth Vader is a Star Wars set. The set has 391 pieces, with a retail price of $39.99 USD. The set was released in 2002. Here are the values of the set:

• New: $82.87 USD, Up 4.46% from the previous month.
• Used: $35.60 USD, Up 19.74% from the previous month.

Current CAGR: 6.85%.

The set has two different periods of little growth. Over the past year, there were sixty-three sets sold. That is not a lot. The first is between July and October 2012. During this period, the sales trend for the set stayed relatively the same, only varieing thirty-four cents. That is not a lot. The second period is Janurary to February 2013. during this period the sale trend for the set almost stayed the same. It only varied thwenty-seven cents. That is very little. These two different periods of little growth, may have been affected by how old the set is, how desirable the set is, and how many sets are available to be sold.

65153 Jango Fett's Slave I with Bonus Cargo Case

The 65153 Jango Fett's Slave I with Bonus Cargo Case set is a Star Wars set. The set has 360 pieces, with a retail price of $49.99 USD. The set was released in 2002. Here are the values for the set:

• New: $316.00 USD.
• Used: $170.00 USD.

Current CAGR: 18.25%.

The set has a very long period of NO growth. There has only been one set that has been sold this year. That set was a used set. For the past year, the sales trend for the set has stayed the same. This set is one of the best examples for a period of no growth. The set may have been affected by how old the set is, how desirable the set is, how many sets are available to be sold, and how many sets were produced.

7142 X-Wing Fighter

The 7142 X-Wing Fighter is from Star Wars. The set has 267 pieces, with a retail price of $29.99 USD. The set was released in 2002. Here are the values for the set:

• New: $80.86 USD.
• Used: $30.20 USD.

Current CAGR: 9.44%.

The set has a period of very little and NO growth over the past year. Over the past year there were only eight new sets sold on eBay. That is very little. The sales trend for the set is very similar for the whole year. The set has only varied in value by $2.66 USD. That is very little. The set may have been affected by how old the set is, how desirable the set is, and how many sets are available to be sold.

7152 TIE Fighter & Y-Wing

The 7152 TIE Fighter & Y-Wing set is from Star Wars. The set has 410 pieces, with a retail price of $49.99 USD. The set was released in 2002. Here are the value for the set:

• New: $ 36.56 USD.
• Used: $13.33 USD.

Current CAGR: -2.8%.

The set has a very long period of NO growth. Over the past year, there were only six sets sold in the past year and those were all used. The sale trend for the set has no growth. It is a horizantal line at $36.56 USD for the whole year. The set may have been affected by how old the set is, how desirable the set is, and how many sets are available to be sold.

65081 R2-D2/C-3PO Droid Collectors Set

The 65081 R2-D2/C-3PO Droid Collectors Set is from Star Wars. The set has 581 pieces, with a retail price of $39.99 USD. The set was released in 2002. Here are the values for the set:

• New: $116.33 USD, Up 1.22% from the previous month.
• Used: $75.67 USD, Down 1.08% from the previous month.

Current CAGR: 10.19%.

The set has a very long period of very little growth. Over the past year, there were only fourteen sets sold new. The sale trend for the sets during the year was between $120.33 USD an $110.20 USD. That is a $10.13 difference in the prices for the whole year. Now the average is $116.33 USD. That is in the middle between those two numbers. The set may be affected by how old the set is, how desirable the set is, and how many sets are available to be sold.

6963 X-Wing Fighter The 6963 X-Wing Fighter is from Star Wars. The set has forty-one pieces, with a retail price of $ 4.99 USD. The set was released in 2004. Here are the values for the set:

• New: $20.42 USD, Down 1.64% from the previous month.
• Used: $18.46 USD.

Current CAGR: 16.95%.

The set has had a very long period of slow growth. There are only eleven sets sold new in the past year. Over the past year, the value of the set has decreased very slowly. Over the whole year, the set only decreased in value by ninty-six cents. That is 2.67% down for the whole year. The set may have been affected by how old the set is, how desirable the set is, and how many sets are available to be sold.

6967 ARC Fighter

The 6967 ARC Fighter is from Star Wars. The set has forty-two pieces, with a retail price of $4.99 USD. The set was released in 2005. Here are the value for the set:

• New: $15.79 USD.
• USed: $10.81 USD, Up 2.95% from the previous month.

Current CAGR: 15.49%.

The set has had a very long period of slow growth. There have been only five sets sold new in the past year. Over the past year, the set has only decreased in value by twenty-five cents. That is 3.31% down over the year. The set may have been affected by how old the set is, how desirable the set is, and how many sets are available to be sold.

After reading this, many of you may be wondering why these sets has little to no growth, when these sets have a CAGR. The CAGR should predict that these sets will grow in value over time, but it is not always possible to know when these periods of little to no growth occur. Here is what happens to the CAGR. The CAGR is a percentage that can shows how much the set is growing in value annually. If you use the CAGR to find the value of a set in a certain amount of time, it can be very helpful if the set does not run into any slow growin periods. During these periods, the CAGR is adjusted so that the value of the set is the same but the amount of time is different. Say that a set has a retail price of $49.99 USD. The current CAGR for the set is 45%. After one year the set has a value of $72.49 USD. Next year the set has the same value but two years have gone by, this means the CAGR has decreased. The new CAGR for the set would be about 20.50%. The aspect of time has affected the CAGR to allow the value of the set to remain the same.

There are various reasons that the set may have stop increasing in value, like how old the set is, how desirable the set is, how many sets are available to be sold, and how many sets were produced. Each of these will be explained.

• How old the set is. The age of a set affects when a set may stop growing in value. If a set is only a couple months to two years old, the set may still be avaiable in the primary market. If the set is not available in the primary market, there will most likely be a good amount on the secondary market like eBay. If there is a lot of sets available on the secondary market, the value of the set will change for a while. If the set is two years to five years old, there probably is a decnt amount of the set on the secondary market. Altougth there is not as much as the above, there is still some to be sold. thus affecting the value steadily as time goes on. If the set is five to ten years old, there are some sets available on the secondary market, but there may be periods of no growth. If the set is ten or more years old, there are few to no sets available on the secondary market making the no growth more noticable. From the sets above, I would put the no growth around eight years and above, but all the other factors play in with this too.
• How desirable the set is. The desirability of the set affects how many sets are sold in the secondary market. Take the Star Wars theme. This theme is very popular, which makes the sets more valuable. They are more valuable because they are more easily recognizable. The more interest there is, the more sets are sold. Also, take the Prince of Persia theme. That theme is not very popular. Because there is less interest in the theme, less sets are being sold in the secondary market. All of this may affect when a set stops growing in value with all the other factors.
• How many sets are available to be sold. This play a very big role in when the value stops growing for a set. If there are no sets to be sold, then the value will not grow. If there are sets, then the value may grow or decrease. this factor also ties in very closely with the next factor.
• How many sets were produced. Along with the above factor, how many sets are available to be sold is dependent on how many sets were produced. For example, the 10188 set has been produced for five years and it is still going. For this set, there would be more sets available to be sold in the secondary market. Also, the 10026 Special Edition Naboo Starfighter was only produced for about one year. In that short period of time, there would only be a limited amount of sets available to be sold on the secondary market.

All these factors are intertwined together to determine when a set may potentially stop growing in value. You cannot just judge when the set may stop growing on one factor. All these factors are used to determine when a set may stop growing in value.
All of the above sets show temporary no growth, but there may be a "Magic Number" in which a set may never rise past in value. This may occur when a set reaches that point, and may not rise past that because people are not willing to pay more than a certain amount for the set.

Unfortunatly, with all this data it is still hard to point out a number for a set. Here are my best predictions for all the sets I explained above.

• 10018 Darth Maul: $727.33
• 10143 Death Star II: $1,090
• 7115 Gungan Patrol: $29.33
• 8010 Darth Vader: $89.13
• 65153 Jango Fett's Slave I with Bonus Cargo Case: $316.00
• 7142 X-Wing Fighter: $82.30
• 7152 TIE Fighter & Y-Wing: $36.56
• 65081 R2-D2 / C-3PO Droid Collectors Set: $120.33
• 6963 X-Wing Fighter: $21.38
• 6967 ARC Fighter: $16.04

With all these sets some of them had had some temporary times of no growth, but then their values changed. Those sets still may have no reached that point yet, while other sets have stayed at a price or either have come down from it. Those certain sets may have reached that point when the growth will stop and a set's value will never go above that point.

The "Magic Number" is a very hard number to find and predict, but it is very helpful if you would want to see when a set may stop growing in value. My predictions above are only predictions. Some of them can be wrong and they can change at a moments notice. Hopefully any Lego set does not reach this number. It is a dreaded number. There will be another article about how to find out if a set is close to hitting that number.

Thanks for reading!