The Hobbit: Solid LEGO Investments?

It was only around a year ago when LEGO finally released the long awaited by many Lord of The Rings theme. With the great success of the books, and more recently the movies, the release of a theme revolving around Middle Earth seemed to be one of the best licensing options available, and we can be grateful LEGO decided to go with it.

The release of the LOTR theme was no accident. Even though the movies were already close to a decade all, LEGO probably knew that with the release of a new trilogy of the prequel book, The Hobbit, there was still a lot of money to be made and popularity to take advantage of. So, they decided to also release a sort of extension or sub-theme entirely related to the newer Hobbit movies, and those will be the focus of this article.

As many of you probably know, The Hobbit book was in fact the first of all that related to Middle Earth coming from Tolkien, released way back in 1937. Despite this, it is clear that the LOTR series has garnered a lot more fans and popularity over the years than its predecessor, so we could make the argument that this will be translating into better performance of LOTR sets than Hobbit ones.

 However, there is something I really think we should keep in mind, especially now that only the first of The Hobbit movies has been released. If we take a look at the box office numbers for the whole series, we will see that The Hobbit’s first movie has collected around $1,017,000,000, and that compared to the LOTR movies, it is only surpassed by the most popular of the three, The Return of the King (by about $ 100 million). The other two LOTR movies collected way less than The Hobbit did, and that to me is a very good sign. Taking into account that the first movie usually comes around to set the stage for the whole trilogy, we can be sure that the coming releases will contain a lot of more action and interesting scenes. This will probably translate in better box office numbers, and that usually defines the popularity of the series.

Don’t get me wrong. I am not saying that The Hobbit LEGO theme will be performing better than the Lord of The Rings, just that we should not be discounting it as an inferior sub-theme. These sets will be getting a lot of attention once they are retired, and even if they end up performing a little less well than LOTR, the figures will probably be fairly similar.

One last thing before we get into analyzing the first wave of Hobbit sets. In a previous article released on the Evaluation Corner dedicated mostly to the Lord of the Rings, I talked about the similarity I saw between it and the Harry Potter theme that just recently ended. I would recommend that you at least read some of the first paragraphs of that article, since I believe that this theme will follow the same route.

Let’s now evaluate specific sets:

- 79010 Goblin King Battle

My Analysis: This set is the largest and most expensive of the whole Hobbit first wave of sets, and it recreates one of the most interesting scenes from the movie, in my opinion. The set comes with around 840 pieces and 8 minifigs, so in theory it would appear to be a good value for the money, especially considering the Goblin King maxifig.

The eight minifigs included are all exclusive to this set, with the exception of Gandalf the Grey. Three of those minifigs are goblin variations that will probably not get too much attention, but the other four I do consider them to be pretty special. Most importantly, the set comes with a maxifig of the Goblin King, one that you will for sure never see released again and that already sells for around $14 on eBay. Maxifigs overall have proven to be really popular, and I don’t see this one being the exception.

The other three are dwarves, Ori, Dori and Nori. They are so far exclusive to this set and necessary for anyone looking to complete the Company of Dwarves, so if they remain exclusive we might see a nice bump to this set in the secondary market. Considering that there are two more movies coming out, I feel that not all three will stay exclusive, but only one of them would be enough.
The set itself has not been one of the most well received ones by collectors and investors, and constantly sells for way less MSRP on most retail outlets and even less on eBay auctions. Having said that, we have seen similar issues with other sets along the years that in the end have proven to be great investments.

Value Prediction: Once we have more data about the performance of LOTR sets after retirement we will be able to give more accurate predictions of value, but this set should at the least sell for close to $ 200 by 2015 assuming it retires by the end of this year.

79003 An Unexpected Gathering

Comments: This is without a doubt the highlight of the first wave of The Hobbit. One of the most important factors this set has going for it is that it can easily be used both on LOTR and Hobbit collections, as Bag-End plays a decent role in both movies/series. The structure is very unique and has a really nice mix of display and play features, including new elements, nice color scheme and great collection of minifigs. I really don’t think any LOTR/Hobbit collection can be considered complete without having this set.

The minifigs included are 2 that can be considered common, Gandalf and an exclusive variation of Bilbo, and four characters that at this point are only included in this set: Balin, Dwalin, Bombur and Bofur the dwarves. As it is the case with most of the Hobbit sets, LEGO seems to have made a point of including exclusive dwarf minifigs in order to incentivize the purchase of all the sets in the series, if someone is looking to get the whole company of dwarves and does not want to buy them individually. What this set has that most of the others don’t to add even more value besides the minifigs, is the unique design as well as the significance of the structure in the movies. Plus, coming with a nice mix of new elements will surely help its future value.

Value Prediction: This is my favorite set of the line, and will in my opinion end up being o the top performers of the whole theme. I see it showing a CAGR of around 25% by the time it has been retired for two years. In my opinion, this could be a conservative estimate if the dwarves end up staying exclusive.

- 79002 Attack of the Wargs

Comments: This set is not talked about that much, but I believe that it has the potential to be a really good performer. I find it to be very similar to Attack on Weathertop, with the important difference that this one seems to be better priced than 9472. What I like the most about this set is that recreates one of the scenes that can be considered the climax of the first Hobbit movie, as well as the inclusion of the wargs.

As it happens with 9472, I think that the minifigs and creatures included in both sets will be responsible for much of the future growth we should be expecting. The wargs are selling for a nice amount of money already on eBay and in the event that they do not reappear in any future sets, something I see very probable, then this set will become the only chance to acquire them. Even more, this set includes one of the main characters of the whole movie, Thorin, that at this point is also exclusive though I do not see how LEGO could keep him from reappearing in the future. The other minifigs include Yazneg (more than likely only included in this set), Bifur, and a couple of hunter orcs.

Value Prediction: Again, the performance of this set will be closely related to the minifigs in it remaining exclusive and the wargs not being included in a lot of sets in the future. I think it would be safe to say that the set should see a CAGR of around 24 % by the time the set has been retired for 2 years. (Assumes retirement by the end of 2013)

- 79004 Barrel Escape

Comments: This set is a Toys R Us and LEGO exclusive, so it is one of the “hardest” ones to find out there, resulting in the positive CAGR while the set is still in production. The trajectory of Toys R Us exclusives has not usually been one of the brightest, with Home One being the poster child for underperformance, but in this case I have the feeling this set will end up performing relatively well. It is hard to know for how long this set will be on the shelves, but considering that is exclusive AND related to the upcoming second Hobbit movie, it may last longer than the other sets in the first wave.

The set includes five minifigs, with four of them being exclusive to the set. The “common” minifig is Bilbo Baggins, and the exclusives are 2 Mirkwood elves (including the chief), Oin and Gloin the dwarves. These last two, especially Gloin on account of him being Gimli’s father, are probably going to be the most popular of the bunch.

The set itself is very interesting, and has some features that are not seen in some of the others, including a brighter color scheme.

Value Prediction: If this set is selling that good while it is still available and has yet to be featured on the movies, then I would argue that it has the possibility to do just as well once it goes EOL. A CAGR of around 22%, the number is currently presenting, would be a good guess after it has been retired for around two years.

- 79001 Escape From Mirkwood Spiders

Comments: Another of the “special” sets featuring scenes from a movie that has not yet been released. This is also one of the smallest sets, but in my opinion is also a very unique one. It comes with four minifigs: Legolas, Tauriel, Kili and Fili, all exclusive to the set.

For the size of the set, it does come with several interesting play features that I think increase its appeal. For example, besides having the minifigs, it comes with a couple of relatively big brick built spiders and some glow in the dark accessories as well. Also, the set does come with several different weapons and “spider web” to catch some of the minifigs. The set itself consists mostly of two small tree structures, but once again I think the main highlight is the pair of spiders.

Value Prediction: These somewhat small sets a lot of times end up having great CAGR numbers, and I believe that will be the case with Mirkwood Spiders. Considering the exclusive minifigs, especially the two elves that I believe will stay exclusive to the set, and the brick built spiders, I see this set with a CAGR of around 27 % once it has been retired for two years.

- 79000 Riddles for the Ring

Comments: The smallest and less impressive set of the bunch is also the cheapest one in this case. This set recreates a very fun scene from the movie, that serves to reintroduce to us the Gollum some hate and some love from the LOTR series. The structure itself is built from around 100 pieces, and it includes only two minifigs, not really bad for the price you pay. The issue I have with this set is that both minifigs are characters we have already seen before in some other sets, so a lot of people will simply not see this set as a real must have.

Value Prediction: From what I said above, I see this set as being the worst performer of The Hobbit’s first wave. I actually agree with a great review of this set written by Grolim, and see the set with a CAGR of around 12 % by the time it has been retired for two years, that will more than likely become 10% in the longer term.

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As you see, I expect this theme to have an average CAGR in the low 20s by the time the first wave has been gone for around two years, a number that would put it very high on Brickpicker’s theme ranking. These sets hold great value on the minifigs they contain, as pretty much every single set comes with exclusives. It would be naïve to assume that all of the dwarves will remain exclusive only to sets in the first wave when there are still two more movies coming out, but I am sure that at least a couple will only appear on the first wave. Figuring out which ones would be the hard thing.

To conclude, I would recommend every investor to include several of these sets in their Brickfolio, and once we start seeing the great numbers the first wave of LOTR sets will more than likely provide, I don’t see many people doubting about these sets anymore!

Thanks for reading.