Semper Paratus! LEGO Coast Guard Sets...Clear sailing or do they sink as investments?

Semper Paratus - the United States Coast Guard's official motto - should serve as a beacon to Brickpickers. Translated from Latin, it means "Always Ready", and while it's appropriate to the core mission of the US Coast Guard, it's doubly appropriate for savvy investors on the lookout for their next investment purchase. This summer, BP members should recognize a familiar sight: a new wave of Coast Guard sets will be sailing into brick and mortar retailers. Should Brickpickers keep an eye out for discounts on these sets, or let them sail into the sunset?

To provide a basis for assessing the potential of the new line, it's critical to review the return profile of the original. Released back in 2008, the original Coast Guard sets were released in two waves. The first was highlighted by 7739 Coast Guard Patrol Boat and Tower, while the second was headlined by 4210 Coast Guard Platform, a once-in-a-lifetime sea base set in the middle of the ocean, similar to an oil rig. Here is a quick review of the first Coast Guard sets:

It's pretty clear the secondary market loved the first wave of Coast Guard sets. And why not? The sets have a great color scheme, it's a nautical theme so boats abound, and to top it off, the Coast Guard Platform is unique among City sets. I believe the Coast Guard platform outperformed the rest of the sets, despite it's high MSRP, because it was on the market for only 5 months. Frankly, the rest of the line likely benefitted from the theme's quick retirement as well, with none of them lasting more than 8 months on retail shelves.

What a phenomenal set! 4210 Coast Guard Platform

Interestingly, there were three previously released Coast Guard sets, but they weren't released as part of a subtheme. 369-1 Coast Guard Station was released in 1976, 575-1 Coast Guard Stationwas released in 1978, and 6435 Coast Guard HQ was released in 1999. While the data is a bit spotty, it appears only 575-1 performed well after retirement, fetching an average of $259 for a sealed box.

How will the new releases perform? Well, let's review the current releases along the same metrics as we did for the first:

Look familiar? The 2013 release has an identical set line-up except it lacks a base set (a real missed opportunity in my opinion) while adding a new pontoon plane. Note the pontoon plane hasn't been released in the US yet, so this is one that could perhaps be on a limited production run similar to 4210 Coast Guard Platform.

Who doesn't love a Lego pontoon boat? 60015 Coast Guard Plane

So, we know this wave is VERY similar to the last release, but can we predict whether it will perform similarly? To assess this, let's take a look at another City subtheme that's been released twice: Construction sets. There have been two full releases of the construction subtheme: one in 2005 and one in 2009. Here are the performances of each:

Lego can be very formulaic when assembling their theme and subtheme set line up, and in this case we can utilize this to our advantage. Like the Coast Guard releases, the two construction releases are very similar in make-up: both have a crane, a construction site, and four jobsite vehicles to fill in the gaps. In comparing the performance of these sets, the 2009 release netted siginificantly less than the the 2005 releases. While 2005 has probably maxed out its returns and the 2009 sets may have a little room to grow, we should still expect a discount in returns from the 2013 Coast Guard sets. Using the construction sets as a model, expect anywhere from a 35-65% drop in ROI from the original Coast Guard release sets.

For some, that doesn't leave the BIG profits that some investors expect.

I will strongly consider adding 60015 Coast Guard Plane, especially if I can grab it on sale, because of its uniqueness among the Coast Guard subtheme, and the prior performance of the two other pontoon planes that were previously released. 7723 Police Pontoon Plane has seen a 113% ROI post-EOL, while 5925 Pontoon Plane has seen a 193% retirement ROI. Be aware that while 7723 is a good comparable, 5925 probably isn't, so lean more toward 100% when predicting an expected return for 60015.

The Coast Guard motto Semper Paratus beckons investors to be "Always Ready". In our case, it should be for new Lego investment opportunities. While the new Coast Guard sets show some promise, be sure to scrutinize every set's expected return profile before inveseting. As the construction sets showed us, a second release will likely suffer from investors' "been there, done that" ambivalence due to Coast Guard fatigue. While there are opportunities with the new Coast Guard sets, be sure to locate the rocks before diving off this cliff.

As always, invest accordingly...