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  • Planet Series 4: A Changing of the Guard.


    DoNotInsertIntoMouth

    One of the reasons I decided to do the first set of planet articles was because I saw the lineup for the planet series 4 and was memorized at how awesome they were. I really felt they had some seriously higher investment value than the first three series, so I wrote down a note to myself to do a blog article about it. While doing some research for the article, I was looking through some data on BrickPicker and figured I could not do an article about the new planet series 4 sets without mentioning the three I wrote about in the first article and how I thought they could be sleeper investments.

    Now that I have finished that article, I move on to the part I am really excited about: Planet Series 4. So first, lets go through what we have seen in the first series that is notable:

    • Naboo Starfighter and Naboo
    • Sebullas Podracer and Tatooine
    • Interceptor and Death Star
    • X-wing and Yavin 4
    • Twin-pod Cloud Car and Bespin
    • AT-ST and Endor
    • Jedi Starfighter and Kamino
    • Republic assault ship and Corusant
    • Tie Bomber and Asteroid Field.

    Looking above, the two best and most iconic ships above are the X-wing and the AT-ST. Of the rest, there are some decent ships, but nothing crazy popular. Adding to this, the X-Wing has somewhere near 10,000 other Lego renditions of it. The Death Star is pretty cool, but I don't think there is enough size and detail there to make it a record breaking set. The tie bomber is one of my favorite ships, but not everyone shares that opinion.

    Let's compare them to the Planet Series 4:

    • Snowspeeder and Hoth
    • B-Wing Starfighter and Endor
    • Tantive 4 and Alderaan

    To me there is no comparison. This line of planet sets include the ships that I was really waiting for. These ships are not only iconic, but are very detailed. I think these ships have had a lot more success in the past as investments in their other forms as well. Don't believe me? All 3 of them have been UCS sets, with two of them being some of the best gaining UCS sets out there(We will have to wait and see with the B-wing). With these coming out soon, will this change the tune of the investors in regards to the Planet Series line?

    75009 Snowspeeder and Hoth

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    My Analysis: The Hoth battle scene is one of the best battle scenes in the Star Wars movies. The AT-AT's walking around, the snowspeeders trying to take down the legs of the AT-ATs while the machines move towards Echo Base. This was even further boosted by the Nintendo 64 Star Wars games released in the early 90s that had several missions centered around Hoth itself and the battle surrounding it.

    To me, this makes this set a great one to have. Yes, Hoth sets have been done before, but no sets currently have the actual planet in it (though it is only a plastic ball). Also, for about 60 pieces, the snowspeeder's detail is incredible. If you see an enlarged picture of it, its hard to tell it only includes that many pieces. The snowspeeder pilot is an exclusive remake as well, which will make it more collectible.

    Another factor that makes this set a big winner is the fact that all three of the items are special: The planet is an iconic Star Wars planet, the ship is a very iconic ship (Check the UCS versions current market price!), and the minifigure is an exclusive redesign.

    Let's look at a little bit of data for the previous snowspeeder sets:

    • 4500 Rebel Snow Speeder – 10.44% CAGR, more than 2X retail currently.
    • 10129 UCS Rebel Snowspeeder – 21.37% CAGR, almost 7 times retail value
    • 7130 SnowSpeeder – 5.37% CAGR (Been around since 1999) – More than double retail value.

    The only downsides with this set (besides wide availability) is the fact that it is a relatively low piece count for 9.99 at just 69. Honestly though, I think the planet and stand really make up for it because it appeals to those looking to play with it and those looking to display it.

    I would wait it out a little before buying a bunch for retail, but if you can get a sale or clearance deal with these in it down to $8, I think its a no-brainer. I think this is going to see gains like the battle packs and be worth about $25 after the first two years or so! Children are going to absolutely love these and I think that people are going to be drawn towards series 4 especially.

    75010 B-Wing Starfighter and Endor

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    My Analysis: I really love this set, mostly because I really love the B-wing. Unfortunately, I think this is the weakest of the three sets in the series, though it still might not be bad to pick up. The B-wing itself is a very popular vehicle, but I think that the current weird situation with the B-Wing UCS set may cause us a few problems. Because we haven't had a set for the snowspeeder or the Tantive IV for a few years, they may be a little “refreshed” in buyers minds making them want to buy them. The B-wing could be a little overshadowed by the bigger one. Of course, maybe that works the other way and people who can't get the UCS set will buy this very small one. I am not sure i can place exactly how it will matter..

    Either way, I think this set is very cool. There are a lot of Endor sets coming out right now and I think that all of these sets are going to cause people to want to collect all the Endor sets. This, combined with people wanting to collect all of the B-wings, and collecting all of the planet series, will make sure this set is still a decent winner. Nothing great, but solid. Ignore it at your own risk.

    Let's take a look at how some of the other retired B-wing sets have done:

    • 6208 B-wing Fighter – 16.58% CAGR at about 3.5 times retail.
    • 7180 B-wing at Rebel Control – 5.08% CAGR (Been around 13 years). Around 2 times retail.

    One x-factor here does intrigue me. If you look at the B-wing, there are really no small sets. There are no B-wing Polybags and there are no Brickmaster B-wings or bigger sets that include a small B-wing. I think that could definitely work in this set's favor because the people who typically like the smaller sets will target this one as more unique. There is no polybag to compete with it.

    My final thought on price would be to look for it at around $7. I think it might be a slight reach at $8, but it could be a big time sleeper because of the lack of another small similar set. Plus remember, B-wings are definitely a possibility in the new movies!

    75011 Tantive IV and Alderaan

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    My Analysis: I think this one is really awesome. I love it when Lego takes a ship with huge intricate pieces and makes a small version of it, still with a great attention to detail. This one just looks really impressive. And it has 102 pieces which makes it one of the biggest of the planet series and definitely a great price per piece value at under $.10.

    The ship itself is a really popular ship and has only be done twice. Yes, just like the B-wing, it has a big push for it in that there have been no polybags or battle packs, or anything of that size made for it. But past that, there hasn't been a mid range set ever done for this one either. Of the two made, one is a UCS set, and one is an exclusive play-set. Both had extremely high original price-tags and are way more now. To me, that is going to have a really big impact on this set. I really think there are a lot of people out there that like this ship, but don't have either of the bigger sets.

    Alderaan itself is no terrible place to have as well. Think about all the kids that will have the Death Star by picking up the Tie Interceptor Planet series set. None of them will be able to wait to blow up Alderaan with it! The minifigure, while not exclusive, is only in the advent calender and the other Tantive sets. So there is a good chance that if this Tantive model is the first one some people will have, then this will also be the first of that minifigure they will get.

    Let's look at the two Tantive sets and how they have done:

    • 10198 Tantive IV – 9.59% CAGR sitting at almost 50% over retail.
    • 10019 Rebel Blockade Runner – 11.97% CAGR sitting at almost 4 times retail.

    Obviously these two ships have done fairly well. With all of this, I think this set will be the best of the planet series and one that every investor should actually look at, even if at retail. It is done really well, has a lot of pieces, and it is the best looking of the series to me. I think if you even get these at $9 in a sale, they will be a big steal. I think in a couple of years, they will be $30 each. And again, they are so small they take nothing to store!

    Final Analysis: While none of the planet series seem to be good enough to shatter any records like 9465 The Zombies, I really think this line has a lot of sleeper potential. As I made clear in the earlier article, these sets will not be fully targeted by investors, but I think this series especially will be really popular among all types of builders and collectors. All three of these are very collectible ships, with two of them being the only small set made of that specific ship. Also, you can't just get one and not have all three. They are a series!

    What will really decide Planet Series 4's fate will be the length of time they are on shelves. Currently they are about to come out and a series 5 has not been mentioned. Because of this, they could maybe stick around a little longer than the other ones have. While I think they are decent investments, I wouldn't go out the first day they come out and buy 100s of them. I could be totally wrong about how popular they are. And if they sit on shelves for over a year, they will have a lot of time to go down in price and lose some of the nice upside.

    The fact is, however, that this is the most impressive full line of the series by far. Generally the rule of thumb for a series in a theme has been “the biggest set always does well”. Perhaps this will extend to this series in that “the best line of the series always does well”. As of now, my prediction is, it will.

    Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.
     




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